tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post4005718589384339085..comments2023-07-06T06:23:14.631-07:00Comments on The Portfolio Investor: Just how long is long term?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-91141128887132246862013-03-19T04:04:11.431-07:002013-03-19T04:04:11.431-07:00Thanks for taking the time to write in, Stephen.
...Thanks for taking the time to write in, Stephen.<br /><br />You're right of course (although I don't think you need me to tell you that! :) ) and you highlight an area of weakness of mine that I'm well aware of but which over time, I hope to tackle. <br /><br />Anyway, great Comment and if I may, I'd like to address it properly in the main blog.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />RowanTPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-69609071305512920812013-03-19T02:55:21.383-07:002013-03-19T02:55:21.383-07:00Hi Rowan,
While I do agree with you that it is wi...Hi Rowan,<br /><br />While I do agree with you that it is wise to have set rules for your portfolio I do think there are factors you are not taking into account with your 2 year time limit (disclaimer: any such limit will be arbitrary and the stuff below will get a little technical).<br /><br />As an example let's take Summer of Football which I have in my portfolio as well.<br /><br />Last year James produced 424 picks and we know his average odds is around evens. His ROI was 8.4%. To test whether he has an edge based on last year I have done the following:<br /><br />I run 100 simulations in Excel of 424 variables with even odds and mean 0% (no edge). In betting terms we have 100 tipsters, who each have provided 424 picks and who has no edge. The results show 3 of these (3%) has delivered better results than James and 97 has delivered worse. Thus it is fairly safe to say that James has an edge.<br /><br />If I do the same calculations with 9/1 as the odds I find that 27 tipsters with no edge will actually have outperformed James. I am sure you already know this but for higher odds services you will either need a larger sample, a higher return or some qualitative assurance to say if they are any good.<br /><br />Conclusion: I think your 2 year time limit is good, however, it also need to be calibrated against the number of tips supplied. In my opinion, one of the main advantages of the new approach from Football Elite is thus that if Matt still has an edge (which I suspect) it will take a shorter time-period for it to be revealed and his seasonal results will be less luck based.Stephenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01093028380185055607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-82187574692681465982013-03-19T01:31:52.549-07:002013-03-19T01:31:52.549-07:00Cheers, Matt. Much appreciated. I'll draw at...Cheers, Matt. Much appreciated. I'll draw attention to the article in the main blog.TPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-86222705789169991472013-03-18T15:39:32.081-07:002013-03-18T15:39:32.081-07:00I always stick up this link on this topic - http:/...I always stick up this link on this topic - http://www.rwbaird.com/bolimages//Media/PDF/Whitepapers/Truth-About-Top-Performing-Money-Managers.pdf - as I think it sums up everything perfectly. It's written from a traditional investment angle rather than a sports betting angle but substitute the word "money manager" for "tipster" and it's the same basic theory. <br /><br />Matt (FE)Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12320519298931682086noreply@blogger.com