tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post6083896355464590899..comments2023-07-06T06:23:14.631-07:00Comments on The Portfolio Investor: Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-41500887858312520232012-05-16T04:22:36.766-07:002012-05-16T04:22:36.766-07:00Hi Rowan,
With much interest I read your thoughts...Hi Rowan,<br /><br />With much interest I read your thoughts about the Football analyst, I have looked at this system before in the past and it is probably one of the best footballsystems/tippers.<br />You say you are going to play system 7-22, system 7-22 has 70 bets with a ROI over 27 %.<br />This is excellent of course, but like you rightly say any system that throws up just 70-100 bets is vulnerable to the whims of variance.<br /><br />The problem I have with so few bets is that your stake has to be relatively high to make some money. The higher the stake , the more stress, it is not my style of gambling. <br />I rather prefer to play 1000 bets with a stake of 10 euro than 100 bets with a stake of 100 euro.<br />At this moment I play a system with about 1000 bets a month, another one with 200 bets a month... the good thing about that is that you do not have to stake high to make some money.<br /><br />When I start to play a system my targetROI is 5 %, so I would make 3.5 (70 * 0.05) points with TFA 7-22.<br />The costs for TFA are about 200 euro per season.<br />So if my stake is 100 euro per bet, my netincome would be (100 euro * 3.5 points) -/- 200 = 150 euro.<br />That is not worth while, to make it really worth while I probable have to stake 500 (!) euro or higher.... and that is much too stressful to me! Of course I could set my target on 10 % but I think a target of 5 % is more sensible.<br />The other problem with staking 500 euro that you get restricted by bookmakers sooner than staking 100 euro.<br /><br />I would rather play system 6-21..... the ROI is lower but the number of bets (500) suit me more, I do not have to stake that high!<br />With a targetROI of 5% I would make 25 points profit with TFA 6-21.<br />So I get the same netincome in playing system 6-21 with a stake of 3.5 / 25 = 14 % of system 7-22.<br />With a stake of 500 euro for 7-22 I could play 6-21 with a stake of 500 * 0.14 = 70 euro!<br />For that reason I would prefer to play system 6-21, less stressfull, less volatile and less problems with bookmakers. I know the ROI for 6-21 (10 %) is lower than 7-22 (27 %) but I will settle for 5 % so I still have a 50 % margin.<br />I could also play all the combo systems of course but the volatility increases with multiple bets and.... there are bets which are selected by 6 (!) combosystems so the stake is going to be very high for those multiple bets, 6 times the initial stake!<br /><br />What are your thoughts on this Rowan? You do not have to say what your stake is but I am interested in your thoughts about this..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com