tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post9052824797011422117..comments2023-07-06T06:23:14.631-07:00Comments on The Portfolio Investor: Depression, shady goings on, and security.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-15786548200084565022012-10-11T11:21:54.200-07:002012-10-11T11:21:54.200-07:00Hey Anon,
Fraudulent activity is not really somet...Hey Anon,<br /><br />Fraudulent activity is not really something I'd paid much attention to previously (apart from the other week with my mobile phone contractor) but as soon as I started to look at little more closely at the subject, it soon became apparent that it represents a real problem. A problem of course, that affects everybody with funds kept in a bookmaker's account.<br /><br />A subject that needs further exploration, I think.<br /><br />All the best,<br /><br />Rowan TPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-35337382546513606582012-10-11T11:18:48.233-07:002012-10-11T11:18:48.233-07:00Simon.
Thankyou for taking the time and trouble t...Simon.<br /><br />Thankyou for taking the time and trouble to post such a detailed and informative comment. Very much appreciated.<br /><br />You make a lot of sense and the comment deserves more exposure. Perhaps next week when I have a little more time to comment myself.<br /><br />Thanks again,<br /><br />RowanTPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-35104555617541473492012-10-10T15:06:41.101-07:002012-10-10T15:06:41.101-07:00Fraudulant activity and online gambling go hand in...Fraudulant activity and online gambling go hand in hand. Bookmakers, betting exchanges and poker sites do a good job of covering this up. There is an article in Dec 2010 Smartersig magazine entitled 'Betfair User Security and Your Responsibility' - it's worth a read (in my biased opinion) and is relevant to bookmakers, although based on experience with Betfair. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-819270169763743770.post-62997407606682899332012-10-10T13:40:25.245-07:002012-10-10T13:40:25.245-07:00The primary reason that I’ve never subscribed to a...The primary reason that I’ve never subscribed to a tipping service is that I think I would struggle to find the time to monitor the release of selections and then rapidly seek out the best available price and get on. I note that over the past couple of weeks in your posts you’ve mentioned that, despite your professional attitude towards your portfolio, you have found yourself making the odd mistake and missing the occasional selection. This does little to inspire me that with my flaky approach to regular gambling I’d have any chance of running a successful portfolio.<br />I modelled foreign and lower league football with limited success for a few years until I eventually solved two issues. The first was automating the bet placement part which removed the dependency on me to actually do what the output was telling me. The second was increasing the tolerance intervals for the data that was spat out. This had the effect of tightening my prices and therefore excluding some borderline selections where the value was at its thinnest. However it was the combination of these two where the benefit was really found. When manually placing the bets I would often be willing to take a price that was 90-95% of the stated price. On the face of it there is nothing inherently wrong with this, after all, models are only predictors and have a margin of error right? True, and even at 90% the prices might have represented slight value but (and I’m finally getting closer to the point of the comment) when you use reduced confidence intervals like this you’re getting closer to ‘gambling’. By this I mean it is harder to determine whether you’re actually betting with value or experiencing positive variance in a zero-sum or even marginally negative system. Since automating the process it is set to take a minimum of 98% of the price. Interestingly looking back at bets that would have been placed had these limits been lower, the models would on average been the most profitable had this limit been set at 96%. This is solely based on Betfair prices (as I can’t automate the placement on other platforms) and I know that if I were to look around in a lot of cases I’d find better prices after commission, but there has to be some value attached to time.<br />As you mentioned it is all fairly arbitrary and probably devolves to the age old argument of picking value vs winners and no one wants to go through that. <br />As a final note, the levels of account security across the online gambling sector is largely pathetic and so sadly Mat’s story comes as little surprise. How people can keep £50K+ in Betfair accounts with their ridiculous security and track record of not siding with customers who claim to be the victims of fraud I don’t know. <br />Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12518509784317701309noreply@blogger.com