The Portfolio Investor

Under new management.

2011-12-30T15:24:00.000-08:00

Not sure if anyone will see this, but if you do, and wondered where'd I'd got to, go to apuntersyear.blogspot.com.

See you there. :-)

Encore.

2011-09-02T06:01:00.000-07:00

No, don't worry, this isn't my Sinatra bit.

I've just read all the comments that have been left after last night's post. I couldn't let it go without saying thank you to all. It really is very much appreciated.

Now it really is emotional...

It's been emotional.

2011-09-01T12:20:00.000-07:00

Some time ago Alan, whose comments have always been perceptive, to the point, and unerringly accurate, said that I changed my mind so much, I would make a darned good woman. He was right. Not that I am a woman. No. I'm not. The other bit about changing my mind. That's where he got it right. Today though, I have made a really difficult decision but one that I have to stick with. This is to be the last TPI blog post.

One of my faults is that I tend to think I can manage when quite clearly I cannot. I have recently realised that I just can't do a full time job, be a Dad, do all the gambling, keep all the records up to date, learn and trade the tennis in the evenings, and write a blog. Something has to give, especially with a lot of football betting that is going to very soon be added to the mix. I did seriously consider getting rid of Helen and the kids, but to be honest when I made the suggestion the tantrums were something to behold and in the end I was weak and gave in. So they stay.

The tennis trading has got off to a decent start. A huge part of that I'm sure is beginner's luck, but enough has happened already to make me think that I want to give it everything I can - to concentrate on it fully and try and make some real progress. It may be a pipedream, but if I can make that work, it provides options that I would love to be able to choose from. Ultimately, I can see my generating an income from that. I can't from blogging, so I'm going to do the Samir Nasri thing and go the way of the money.

What finally made my mind up was the error in the figures that a good friend of mine pointed out; what I referred to yesterday. It related to the month's figures for ProBandit, but after doing a full audit of all the bets I placed in the month, I found that my mistakes affected other services too. I very rarely made such mistakes. I don't think it is any coincidence that they started to creep in when I started trying to do too much. What is not fair though, is my blogging about services, putting performance levels out in the public domain, without being accurate. The whole episode shook me...it was simply not good enough. We're not talking about massive errors, but a bit here and a bit there. Those bits are too much though, if what you are saying about a service is not accurate.

It's only been nine months or so, but in that time this blog has been great fun to be involved with. Some of the issues that were discussed I found really interesting. What made them so were the comments that were left. Alan, Andy, Skeeve, Matt at Football Elite, Peter of Chasemaster, Graeme at TFA, Banaz, Sam at TME and JP amongst many others all added massively to the enjoyment I have found in writing TPI. I only ever had one daft comment left; one that had a go at me for not wanting Spurs to do well in Europe. I mean. Really. What did they expect?

Best of luck to everyone with their betting. I'll see a lot of you in various forums of course. Let's not be strangers.

There's one more thing. It's been emotional.

Warning - multi-tasking being attempted!

2011-08-31T14:08:00.000-07:00

And I can't, not being a woman. So no post tonight other than this.

Trying to keep one eye on trading the tennis, and two ears on Mad Jim White on Sky.

I also have a confession to make. I was contacted by a friend of mine last night who had spotted quite a discrepancy in his figures with a particular service and mine. After a quick look I thought my figures were ok, but on a proper look today, he was right and I was out. Further investigation shows I might have messed up on two or three days, which isn't very clever, so a full audit is being undertaken.

Of course I blame the wife - she really should be able to multi-task. I know full well it won't be her fault, but that's not what I'll be telling her.

Quiet.

2011-08-30T12:20:00.000-07:00

Another very quick one, which is going to be the way of it whilst there is so much tennis going on.

Before I go on to summarise today's action, a quick note for the chap who keeps sending messages asking for a link exchange. Mate, I responded to your first message in the Comments section - I even put it in Italian (I'm a man of many talents you know, although making money from a betting portfolio doesn't seem to be one of them) and put a link up to the blog. I've just taken it down again as a protest against having a message sent every day saying the same thing. Enough already! Basta!

Today's Betting

The only winner today was provided by ProBandit (Colourbearer - Southwell - 2/1) although another was backed each way in the same race that finished second (Spirit Of Coniston - Southwell - 7/1). The service also had a loser but a profit overall.

On The Nose again managed to eke out a profit bby picking a decent priced horse that finished second (Sonning Rose - Epsom - 16/1) to more than counter the loser they also gave.

No success for The Market Examiner (0/2).

On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +0.6pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2.25pts, +0.648pts.

Tuesday 30th August: Staked £135, +£17.36.
Month to date: Staked £7,097.50, -£17.42, roi -0.24%.
Running total (inc fees): -£326.22, roi -2.22%.

Limping towards the end of the month.

2011-08-29T10:30:00.001-07:00

Doing this early today as there are a few tennis matches at the US Open later this evening that I've got my beady eye on.

Made the toughest fiver I've ever made on the horses today. Thank goodness for On The Nose who for the umpteenth time this month, has rescued what had been looking likely to be another very poor day.

Today's Betting

Four On The Nose selections, one placed (Fanny May - Epsom - 16/1) and two winnners amongst them (Orientalist - Epsom - 6/1 and Layla's Hero - Newcastle - a mix of 6/1 and 11/2). Top tipping, once again.

Winning Racing Tips had one bet today which was very well supported and managed to finish third (Wayne Manor - Chepstow - 8/1).

No returns for PJA NH (0/1), Northern Monkey (0/1), The Market Examiner (0/1) or Chasemaster (0/1).

PJA NH: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3pts, +5.977pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, +0.24pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Monday 29th August: Staked £236, +£5.94.
Month to date: Staked £6,962.50, -£34.78, roi -0.49%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£343.58, roi -2.41%.

Probably get a chance to watch a bit of the Spanish footie on the telly tonight, in between the tennis matches. Watching Cesc in a Barca shirt. Embrace that pain...

Weekend roundup and some thoughts on ProBandit

2011-08-28T10:53:00.000-07:00

You can probably guess I'm not in too good a mood right now. Dear oh dear.

As far as the betting is concerned, it's been a profitable weekend overall but nothing to write home about. There has been a comment left under Friday's post about ProBandit and I must say, I am beginning to feel a little concerned about the service. I'm not going to criticise it; I know for a fact that Paul, the guy who runs ProBandit, is a good guy who puts his own money on the line as far his selections are concerned, and I have no doubt that he is as frustrated as anybody with the performance this year. It cannot be denied though that ProBandit has lost it's mojo and I always feel a little uneasy when a change in approach is taken with selections. On the face of it, dropping the NQ bets was the right thing to do as put simply, they hadn't added any profits to the service for a good while. However, they were a factor last year when ProBandit could do little wrong - even if they didn't add much by way of actual profit, they helped to keep things steady and as far as I was concerned, they were an integral and valuable part of the service. Paul obviously thought the best thing to do was to stop giving the NQ bets - I hope in a few months time, with the benefit of hindsight, it will be clear that it was the right move to make.

Of course it is very easy to become overly negative when things aren't going well. My figures for this month have ProBandit at just short of 3.5 points down which is hardly catastrophic. It should alse be noted that although performance in 2011 is well short of what could reasonably be expected, the figures for the last twelve months are still pretty decent. This in itself calls for perseverence and I'm certainly not thinking of jacking ProBandit in at this time.

What doesn't help the ProBandit cause though, is it being one of the more expensive services on the market. It is the most expensive racing service in my portfolio certainly, and with that, I guess there comes a higher level of expectation. Let's see what happens over the next few months.

On a more positive note, it is great to see Skeeve starting the new season in super form and his careful approach to the early games seems to have paid off. A doff of the cap in his direction, not only for the actual picks, but also to his general approach as he backs his own judgement with what seems - judging by his his emails - to be supreme confidence. If he will allow it, I would liken early-season Skeeve to a Mountain Goat, picking his way surefootedly through rocky and dangerous paths. Well done, Old Chap.

Saturday's Betting

The Market Examiner knocked one in from two bets (Waahej - Windsor - 6/1), and the loser came very close to finishing in front too.

TME was the only racing service to finish in profit though. Chasemaster got one to place from two bets (Quecha Des Obeaux - Cartmel - 7/1), as did Northern Monkey (Hezmah - Goodwood - 7/1, affected by a Rule 4). No returns for On The Nose (0/2) or ProBandit (0/1).

The profit came on the football, with both of Skeeve's investments being successful.

On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -0.4pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +4.4pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, -0.025pts.

Skeeve: Staked 8pts, +11.161pts.

Saturday 27th August: Staked £324.50, +£207.52.

Today's Betting

Losses today.

Northern Monkey was the only racing service to turn a profit, finding a winner that was staked only as a saver (Oneladyowner - Goodwood - 7/1), and two to place (Roicead - The Curragh - 7/2 and Future Generation - The Curragh - 9/1). On The Nose also had Future Generation each way (8/1) and a loser.

No returns for The Market Examiner (0/1) or Pro Bandit (0/3).

Losses too on the football, despite The Sportsman's one bet being successful. Football Elite's start to the season, which rather resembles Arsenal's, continued in poor vein (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.6pts, +0.477pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -0.25pts.

The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.1pts.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Sunday 28th August: Staked £296, -£139.45.
August to date: Staked £6,726.50, -£40.72, roi -0.6%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£349.52, roi -2.49%.

Finally, a hearty congratulations to Graeme at The Football Analyst. Married today! I hope he's not reading this, because if he is doing on his wedding night, he'll be divorced by tomorrow!

Right then. An evening of gazing at my navel contemplating giving up any interest in football is on the cards. Football? Blah! Who needs it?

Friday

2011-08-26T23:59:00.000-07:00

Couldn't post last night as too involved with the tennis. With the US Open starting on Monday, that could be the way of it for the next couple of weeks. I'll stick up the portfolio results as often as I can.

Friday's Betting

Minor loss all told. With many racecourses being hit by heavy rain, I feared the worst. Still, could always be hit badly today instead I guess.

On The Nose has been in a class all of it's own this month (good bloody job too, really, otherwise I'd be in a right mess!) and another couple of points were gathered with a nice winner over in Ireland (The Bull Hayes - Killarney - 8/1).

ProBandit had just the one bet, and it was a good'un (Deliberation - Hamilton - 13/8).

A small amount of profit was eked out by Northern Monkey as they found a winner (Colonel Mak - Ffos Las - 11/2 but badly affected by a R.4) and one to place (Hong Kong Island - Hamilton - 10/1) from their three tips.

No luck for The Market Examiner (0/1), Winning Racing Tips (0/1) or PJA NH (0/2).

Friday 26th August: Staked £215, -£32.30.
Month to date: Staked £6,106, -£108.79, roi -1.78%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£417.59, roi -3.12%.

Good luck over the weekend, chaps.

I ain't volunteering!

2011-08-25T11:19:00.001-07:00

I don't mind admitting, I feel like a whinge. I am without doubt, in a whingy kind of mood. Not desperate, or worried about going bust or anything like that. Just fed up after a couple more poor days on the racing that unfortunately have been very much the norm over the summer. Long term, patience, long term, patience....blah, blah, blah. Boll*cks to that - I want a couple of great days, and at the risk of sounding a little demanding, I want them now!

Don't worry, I've not lost all patience all of a sudden. I'm still focused, eyes fixed on the prize and knowing that (deep breath) long term all will be rosy. But by 'eck, wouldn't it be nice to go through a wee spell when there weren't two or three services going through the mill, dragging everything else down?

I do blame myself for the horrible run that The Market Examiner are currently on. Seriously, if a sacrifice had to be made for the greater good of The Market Examiner and their subscriber base, thus turning their fortunes around in one instant and ensuring a prompt return to winning ways, then realistically there is only one person who should be offered up as a gift to placate the Gambling Gods. And we all know who that is, do we not? But before we all get carried away and start to raise support for the idea on an SBC forum thread or attempt to get #sacrificetheportfolioinvestor trending on Twitter, just think on. If a roaring fire was readied, knives sharpened and an apple placed in my mouth, who'd write the blog once the deed had been done?

Yeah, hadn't thought about that, had you?

Today's Betting

A quick mention of yesterday, first. Eight bets on the horses and no returns. The day was rescued somewhat by two winning tips from The Sportsman. Overall loss of £35.67.

After all my moaning and grumping, the portfolio actually turned a small profit today thanks to On The Nose who got a lovely winner from their two selections (Armaramak - Killarney - 8/1).

No returns elsewhere though from The Market Examiner (0/3) and ProBandit (0/1).

The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +4pts.

Thursday 25th August: Staked £103, +£17.
Month to date: Staked £5,891, -£76.49, roi -1.29%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£385.29, roi -2.93%.

Helen, my wife and editor, has just read my post before submission. She rolled her eyes and muttered something about me having no idea about making sacrifices.

Dunno what she meant by that...

There will come a time...

2011-08-23T14:33:00.000-07:00

A little while ago I mentioned that in the interests of protecting my bookmaker accounts, I had stopped placing all racing bets with BOG bookmakers. My theory is that if the tipsters have a genuine edge - which I believe they must do - the majority of their selections should shorten in price as the market matures. However, I am not stupid or naive enough (honest!) to think that there won't come a time when I don't severely regret not using a BOG bookmaker.

So far, I have not been stung, but I was reminded of my vulnerability today when ProBandit's winner went off at an SP of 9/2. I had taken 11/4 in the morning. Fortunately, I happened to have placed the bet with Bet 365, so on this occasion, I escaped with a warning. I did miss out a touch with Chasemaster's winner, on which I took 100/30 with a non-BOG bookie, to see the SP returned at a marginally larger 7/2. I can live with that.

I'm afraid this tennis trading business is really eating into my potential blogging time. Please be patient - there will be days when I just won't be able to post. Like Arnie though, I'll always be back.

Today's Betting

A second consecutive decent day for ProBandit who found a nice winner from their three selections (Eshoog - Warwick - 9/2 (BOG!)), and Chasemaster contributed nicely too (King Penda - Sedgefield - 100/30).

Northern Monkey's only selection was placed; the exact same also true of PJA NH.

No luck for On The Nose (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/2).

Righty-ho then...very slim chance of a post tomorrow night. Too much tension. A fraught 90 minutes await. Up the Arse!

Solid

2011-08-22T14:15:00.000-07:00

Decent start to the week.

Today's Betting

Good day for ProBandit; two winners (I'm Super Too - Hamilton - 4/1 and Golden Tempest - Kempton - 10/1).

Decent time of it too for PJA NH which had two selections, a winner (Lucky Lukey - Hereford - 5/1) and a placed. They were both also included in an each way double that provided a very small return.

A small profit for Northern Monkey whose sole each way bet finished in the frame, but no luck for On The Nose and The Market Examiner.

On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
PJA NH: Staked 2pts, +2.108pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, +0.375pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 3pts, +2.056pts.

Monday 22nd August: Staked £203, +£100.13.
Month to date: Staked £5,330.50, -£121.09, roi -2.27%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£429.89, roi -3.41%.

Where were we? Oh, yes. In the doldrums.

2011-08-21T12:02:00.001-07:00

I'm currently reading a novel by the Irish author John Boyne, which is based around the story 'Mutiny on the Bounty'. I'm sure you're all familiar with what happened on that boat and the tale of Captain Bligh's remarkable journey to safety once cast off by the mutineers. Well anyway, in the chapter I read last night it described the boredom suffered by the men as they slowly crossed the ocean, the only distraction the occasional storm that added to the already burdensome workload of the crew. It didn't take a tremendous leap of the imagination to draw parallels with my betting and with what is happening at the moment.

Of progress there is none. Last year, when things were going along nicely, there were a few services that excelled, a few that trod water, and just one or two that went through a rocky spell before recovering. Since the start of this year though, it seems that too many services have experienced really tough spells. Really tough. The unfortunate knock-on effect is that the portfolio as a whole has essentially stood still, as the better performers have merely served to keep the portfolio head above water, as opposed to providing strong profits.

This last month has been a microcosm of this. Starting well, the month has been dragged down over the last two weeks and is now running at a loss. On The Nose has been remarkable and had a terrific York, picking Our Joe Mac (8/1) and Navajo Chief (25/1) plus a couple to place at good odds, and added to the haul at Sandown on Saturday with Fallen Idol (15/2). They are currently up over 36pts for August at an roi of 121%!

You would think that this would be enough to be the basis of a fairly strong performance from the racing services, wouldn't you? But as seems to be so typical for this year, the profits from On The Nose have been turned into a loss by 4PA, which had a a very poor York, and Winning Racing Tips which seems to be going through the type of run where anything that can go wrong does.

Not been a good weekend on the football either, with Football Elite's three selections all going down, two teams giving up leads today by letting in late (very late in one case) equalisers.

So what sort of toll is this taking? To be honest, not a huge one at present. It's disheartening, of course it is. Trying to be dispassionate though, each one of the services followed have a long term track record, have been through bad spells and come out the other end. That must be the focus, and is the only way to cope with the effort taken to make progress whilst going through the doldrums, waiting for the day when a fair wind will blow and fill the sails again.

Month to date: Staked £5,127.50, -£221.22, roi -4.31%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£530.02, roi -4.28%.

There's a new tennis tournament starting tomorrow in the States and with that, plus some interesting football to watch this week, posts may be scarce. I'll post as and when I can.

Oh, and if everyone can have a look for a cheque book in the name of 'Arsenal Football Club', I'd be most grateful. It appears to have been mislaid.

Altogether now...

2011-08-16T14:27:00.000-07:00

Not much chance of a lengthy blog post tonight, I tell you. Not when the mighty Gooners are in action. Actually, perhaps not so mighty at the moment. More semi-mighty. Mighty-lite, if you like. Slightly-mighty? Actually, perhaps not mighty at all - just crap. Still, it could be worse. We could have just sold our best player.

Today's Betting

Well, another tedious, losing day today. Just a week or so ago, August was buoyant, promising great things. Now it's as about as buoyant as the Greek/Portuguese/Irish/Italian/American/British/Global (delete as applicable) economy. Still, you know what happens to an economy in crisis. It hits rock bottom and then it recovers. Well, July's and August's betting performance is my very own, personal double-dip recession.

Will I survive? Well, you think I'd crumble? You think I'd lay down and die? Oh no, not I. I will survive. As long as I know how to bet I know I will stay alive.
I've got all my life to live, I've got all my stakes to give and I'll survive.
I will survive!

I need a drink...

One winner today, that from Chasemaster (Comehomequietly - Worcester - 7/2) which was not enough for them to avoid making a loss on the day. They were in good company mind...The Market Examiner, ProBandit and Winning Racing Tips all lost out today too.

The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -1.062pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.9pts, -1.02pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1.125pts, -0.328pts.

Tuesday 15th August: Staked £310.50, -£144.26.
Month to date: Staked £3,241.50, +£41.78, roi 1.28%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£267.02, roi -2.54%.

Now, no blog for a couple of days, possibly not until Sunday. I've a couple of days off and I'm taking the kids to see their grandparents in Shropshire. No internet connection I'm afraid. Putting bets on means a whole morning in a cafe in Ludlow. If you hear of a riot in the small Shropshire market town over the next couple of days, it will be a small one - just me buzzing on too much caffeine as I down my seventh cappucino. Mind you, the old place could do with a bit of livening up.

Trading Places.

2011-08-15T12:47:00.000-07:00

Not sure why, but trading has always been shrouded in mystery to me. To be honest with you, I have not ever understood it. I've heard of people generating a decent income stream from BetFair and I've read blogs written by people who trade, but I've never really got a handle on it, nor on what traders actually do. As far as getting involved in trading myself is concerned, I have never been beyond the very first hurdle - having any idea whatsoever how or where to start. Until now.

Why bother with trading though? Following a portfolio of tipping services is time consuming enough, hard work, and takes much of my spare time. Trading is simply going to claim a significant chunk of what little time I have left to myself. But, I happen to think making the effort is worth it. Firstly, because I'm a bloody-minded arse at times who feels challenged by learning something completely new. And second, I realise that if I can make it work, then it can open up more options in the future. In terms of how long it will take before I know what I'm doing...I've absolutely no idea. A year before being half competent perhaps? I just don't know.

Getting over that initial hurdle has proven to be a real challenge. The tact I've taken is to choose two sports - football and tennis - and be led by those that know an awful lot more than I do. If I can pick up strategies and ideas along the way, then that's all well and good. Just at present though, it's very much a case of being led by the hand through what feels like an absolute minefield. For those SBC members reading, you'll be aware of Kodagira, whose footie trades I am following closely. As for tennis, I'm following Tradeshark Tennis, spending time in their chat room during matches, reading approaches to games and generally trying to act in as sponge-like a manner as possible to absorb all the information I possibly can. I have already seen incidences where Tradeshark's experience and knowledge of the markets has been incredibly impressive and these really have made me realise just how long this journey to trading enlightenment might be. There is also another football trading service that I'm in contact with and more detail to follow there.

There are knock on effects though. With tennis, many of the games I can look at are in the evening or late at night (I can't very well get involved at the office during the day!). The late nights I struggle with, but they are a necessary evil if I'm ever to get to where I want to be. Mid-evening games though mean that the time I spend writing this blog is compromised. Last week I found it a real struggle to write a meaningful blog, watch the tennis, dip my toe into actually trading (largely unsuccessfully), record all the results from the portfolio, etc, etc. I also refuse to compromise the time I spend with the kids in the evening, although they are still at an age where they are tucked up pretty early, and I'm still playing tennis myself one or two evenings each week. What all of this means is that I am going to be able to spend less time on the blog. I will still blog each day (other than Saturdays), but more posts will be results only with just the occasional 'topic' driven post in between.

Probably save you all from my irrelevant mutterings anyway... :)

Today's Betting

A quiet but (another) losing day. Northern Monkey's one each way selection finished in the frame and one of Winning Racing Tip's two selections did likewise. No success from The Market Examiner (0/1) or On The Nose (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +0.07pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, -0.48pts.

Monday 15th August: Staked £124, -£59.40.
Month to date: Staked £2,931, +£186.04, roi 6.34%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£122.76, roi -1.2%.

Weekend Roundup

2011-08-14T12:06:00.000-07:00

A poor weekend to round off what has been a bad week. August has gone from having the potential to be a really good month to being a month which could swing either way. Once again, the weather becoming unsettled has coincided with a drop in performance by a number of the racing tipsters. The more I am in this game, the more I beginning to think that a sustained period of dry weather is likely to result in better returns.

Let's hope we have an Indian summer, eh?

Saturday 13th August

Having said all that, yesterday wasn't a bad day on the nags.

4PA continues to show encouraging signs of putting a disappointing July behind it. This week coming, with the York Ebor meeting likely to be a busy time for the service, could well make or break it's month. Yesterday saw a nice winner (Bertiewhittle - Newmarket - 12/1) amongst their five selections.

Northern Monkey was the other racing service to profit, finding a lovely winner (Pepper Lane - Ripon - 11/1).

On The Nose managed to get one to place from three and produced a loss, and there was no joy for The Market Examiner (0/2) or Chasemaster (0/1).

The damage was done yesterday with the two football bets losing, one from Football Elite, the other from The Sportsman.

4PA: Staked 4.5pts, +2.75pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 5pts, +4.125pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3pts, -1.543pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.

Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.2pts, -0.2pts.

Saturday 13th August: Staked £569, -£67.37.

Sunday 14th August

It has been a good weekend for Northern Monkey, finding another winner today (Rose Blossom - Pontefract - 6/1).

No success today for The Market Examiner (0/1), On The Nose (0/2), or Chasemaster (0/3).

The Market Examiner: Staked 1pr, -1pt.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.25pts, +2.35pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Sunday 14th August: Staked £142, -£50.
Month to date: Staked £2,807, +£245.44, roi 8.74%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£63.36, roi -0.62%.

TGIF!

2011-08-12T14:02:00.000-07:00

I don't mind admitting, I'm knackered, so forgive me for the brevity. Trying to learn to trade means late nights. I'll do a post next week on what I'm attempting and what I'm hoping to achieve.

Poor day, today.

Today's Betting

On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, -0.875pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.

Friday 12th August: Staked £215, -£183.50.
Month to date: Staked £2,276, +£362.81, roi 15.94%.
Running total: +£54.01, roi 0.56%.

Back Sunday, chaps. Have a good'un.

A note of caution.

2011-08-11T13:32:00.000-07:00

Got my new laptop. Lost my wife for six months at Her Majesty's insistence. Good result all ways around!

Something said in an email that someone sent to me yesterday gave me reason to pause for thought. It was noted that after what has been a challenging year to date on the horses, and what was a challenging second half to the football season betting-wise between January and May, we were perhaps due a nice spell of profit making. Certainly he and I shared a sense of optimism, encouraged as we are by the imminent return of football betting as a major part of our gambling operations. I blogged last Friday how giddy I was at getting on the Football Elite bet for the weekend and I'm just wondering if this feeling of positivity is a just a touch OTT and needs toning down a tad.

This irrational positivity is the same emotion as that experienced when a poor month has finally ended. It's completely illogical I know, but when this happens I can't help but think that the new month is a fresh start, that things will get better from this point. Utter rot, of course. So in the same way as I'm optimistic for Arsenal's chances over the course of the new season despite selling off all of their better players it seems (and on that point, think I might get a run out?), I'm incredibly optimistic about cleaning up on the footie over the next few months. Which is ridiculous. Very.

So a reigning in of emotions is required, I think. It's hard enough to stay emotionally stable without allowing a bubble of optimism inflate to bursting point. The new football season may well get off to a slow start, more Geoff Capes than Usain Bolt. Those following The Football Analyst systems for the first time may be expecting small miracles, Skeeve expected to continue where he left off, Football Elite go on a winning run of 20, and Football Investor's new Strike Zone Aways to be the dog's b's. It won't work like that though, will it? It will more likely be most weekends be win a bit/lose a bit, the odd great weekend, and the occasional weekend after which you see the bottom of the whisky bottle that was full on the Friday night, so bad has it been.

So, no more optimism. Optimism out.

I'm happier when in misery anyway.

Today's Betting

Very small profit thanks to Northern Monkey's one very shrewd bet that finished in the frame (The Rectifier - Salisbury - 33/1), and Chasemaster finding a winner (Cash Back - Stratford - 5/1) from their two selections.

PJA NH had just the one today, and that finished placed in third (Consult - Stratford - 9/1).

No returns today from On The Nose (0/1), The Market Examiner (0/1), and Winning Racing Tips (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +2.8pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, +0.06pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.8pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.425pts.

Thursday 11th August: Staked £168, +£20.
Month to date: Staked £2,061, +£546.31, roi 26.5%.
Running total (inc. fees): +£237.51, roi 2.54%.

Why pay?

2011-08-10T13:16:00.000-07:00

My PC is drawing it's last breaths. A cast off from work, where it was put to hard labour for at least three years, it has spent the last two years in the PC retirement home that is our house. It is time to do the merciful thing though. Between turning it on and being able to get onto the internet, it is quite possible to make the perfect cup of tea, brewed for four minutes. Yep, the old boy was getting painfully slow and the decent thing has to be done.

Thinking of saving some space in the rather cramped small bedroom that we call the study, we (Helen and I) decided to go for a laptop as a replacement. There's a PC World in Salford Quays. Bugger it. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Nicked a hoodie and a baseball cap, given it to Helen, and she's away on a mission. She looks like a menacing Tony Pulis. Naturally she's taken our son with her, who is lightning on his feet. Show him the ropes, as it were. Anyway, why pay for a laptop when all you've got to do is smash a few windows and have it away?

Getting back to gambling, here is the rest of Banaz's comment from last week:

"A more realistic goal for the punter in a consistent winning groove over a long enough time period might be to work part time. For me for a long time this has been a goal of mine. I would like (and indeed for mental stability would need) a security blanket of some sort of regular employment especially in the current climate. The work I do I could do a half day albeit unlikely to be able generate ½ my current salary. I would however forego a certain level of income if I could be relatively certain that I could generate enough from my punting to bring my overall earnings up to say 75% to 80% of my current level of income. The loss of income would for me be more than offset by the increased freedom to do something I enjoy. It would also make getting back into employment full time in the event of a punting meltdown much more easily manageable. Last September I actually thought by the end of this year (2011) that I might be in a position to achieve this but for various reasons (self inflicted and otherwise) I took an absolute 6 month pounding and am now rebuilding. Realistically I have put myself back a year if not 18 months in this quest but it is still a goal for me and one I am pursuing vigorously.

For other winning punters not interested in going full time or part time I think a decent goal is to provide a regular secondary income for either “treats” or to supplement their income. A good piece of advice given to me was that if you are not building your bank (or have built it to a level that your stakes are comfortable with) that you should pay yourself a “salary”. I’ve used money in the past to amongst other things – repair the roof of the house, take an extra few days holidays with the family, upgrade my laptops etc. The satisfaction to be able to do this without dipping into salary and savings was immense and is tangible reward for the hard work put in and lets face it there is a serious amount of effort involved here."

There's not really a great deal I can add to this. I've already covered the importance of having a financial safety net in place for the sake of mental wellbeing. It's great to see someone accept that mistakes they've made have perhaps put them slightly behind schedule but who is determined to persevere until they get to where they want to be. I find that sort of thing inspirational. And those "treats" that the profits can allow - yep, been there, done that too. :)

Today's Betting

Damp squib of a day, and that's not simply referring to the dreadful weather we've had in these parts. No real joy for anyone.

The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.333pts, -0.766pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, -0.18pts.

Wednesday 10th August: Staked £144, -£62.40.
Month to date: Staked £1,893, +£526.31, roi 27.8%.
Running total (inc. fees): +£217.51, roi 2.37%.

Right. Where is she? I want my laptop.

Reality TV?

2011-08-09T13:26:00.000-07:00

What the hell is happening to this country?!? I switched on the news at 10.00 yesterday evening and at midnight I was still glued to the screen, absorbed by the events I was witnessing. I can remember, just, the riots of 1981. From what I can gather though, the cause of that period of chaos was the perception of the police held by the resident South East London Afro-Carribean community. Then, as now, the country was in the grip of recession but from what I have read (good old Wiki!), the situation in London was exacerbated by there being an underlying and simmering racial tension that was ratcheted up by an undercover plain clothes police operation aimed at reducing the soaring crime rate. This led to over 1,000 people being stopped and searched in the Brixton area within just a five day period. The simmering resentment quickly turned into outright anger and a rejection of the authority of law. So when a black youth, bleeding badly from a knife attack, was apprehended by police tardy in providing medical attention, a growing crowd started to turn nasty. More police were called into the area, and that did nothing to calm tensions. It was the spark that lit the fire of riots in London and further riots in Moss Side - Manchester, Toxteth - Liverpool, and Handsworth - Birmingham.

Don't know about you, but I'm not sure that these comtemporary riots are a result of recession, racism, or an overly intrusive and insensitive police operation. These riots are surely just a load of scumbag kids who see the opportunity to get away with causing havoc, destroying property and stealing goods. There is no 'cause' here, is there? This is not a rise against apartheid or communist rule. This is just wanton criminality by opportunists.

Now I'm a fairly liberal, slightly left of centre, wishy washy sit-on-the-fence pontificating type (unless the discussion turns to football) but even I want to see these people suffer. Prison is far too good for them. Their actions en masse are so antisocial, then they have forgone any right to play any part in society. Why should the tax payer pay for these scroats' prison terms? No. We need a more radical solution.

I suggest that we find an unoccupied island in the middle of the Pacific, dump them all on there, set up a few closed circuit television cameras and hey presto, we have a reality tv programme that is the exception to the rule - ie. it would be worth watching. Out of the thousands placed on the island, the ONE survivor has the right to retake his place in society...providing he can swim to the coast of the nearest mainland, two thousand miles away.

It's either that, or send in the army.

Whaddya reckon?

Today's Betting

A very small loss today, but that was no fault of PJA NH, who found a lovely winner amongst their four selections today (Mibleu - Newton Abbott - 12/1).

ProBandit's each way selection finished second but they also had a loser, and no success today for Northern Monkey (0/1), The Market Examiner (0/1), On The Nose (0/4), or Chasemaster (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3pts, +4.35pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, -0.572pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.

Tuesday 9th August: Staked £223, -£13.20.
Month to date: Staked £1,749, +£588.71, roi 33.65%.
Running total (inc. fees): +£279.91, roi 3.1%

Hope you don't mind the diversion from the gambling today. Historic times.

Focus on the goal.

2011-08-08T10:56:00.000-07:00

Last week, Banaz left a comment under the post "What's it all about then?"; a comment so much of which I agreed with completely. I found myself nodding as I read it, thinking this chap and I seem to have a lot in common. The first paragraph said:

"I think its important if you are treating your gambling seriously to have some sort of medium or long term goal for yourself. For a small few going professional would be the ultimate goal and with Betfair (concerns re premium charges noted), a decent bankroll, a stable of decent tipsters or systems that is much more a possibility than ever before. For most that is a goal that is either not realistic or even desirable. I’m not sure the solitary lifestyle is good for most people and the financial uncertainty is a factor too easily glossed over before taking the leap."

Very important things, goals. Without them I feel it is all too easy for one's focus to become blurred. The emotional investment of day to day gambling can very easily result in the long term aim being forgotten as the daily grind takes it's toll. Perhaps some are capable of completely blocking out the negative emotion that follows a bad day or a losing run and remain completely detached from their gambling affairs. I can't. I'm getting better at coping with the downs, but still when things are not going as I would like, I am vulnerable to the influence of the punting devils that whisper their malicious mutterings into my ear, implanting dangerous thoughts deep into my psyche. I must admit, as far as keeping my emotions in check, I find it much easier to not get carried away by the excitement of a good day or a winning spell. I guess I'm just a miserable bugger.

One way to avoid getting caught up in the here and now and instead remain focused on what exactly it is we are trying to achieve is to set a mental road map which charts each stopping off point on the way to our ultimate destination. The first service station I wanted to reach was to get to the stage of having put together a stable portfolio consisting of services which I felt comfortable with. It took me two years or so to get there but I arrived at this stopping point eventually. Looking ahead now, I can see on my mind map that my next target is for this portfolio to be cost-efficient over a decent period of time - ie. to deliver sufficient rewards to recompense the effort put in - and as I mentioned yesterday, to build up a trading side of the "business". If in two years time, I am running a profitable tipster portfolio and trading with a modicum of success, then I'll be a happy man.

Turning professional? Tough one to answer. I have the feeling that the idea of gambling as a full time profession (can gambling be called a profession - I'm not sure it can but perhaps that's the traditionalist in me) is probably something that is better than actually being a pro. I must confess though, the idea is a tempting one. As I suggested last week, whilst I hold no delusions of full time gambling being an easy job, the lack of official working hours can lead to a lot of potential for doing things that being tied to an office (in my case) prevent. I have absolutely no qualms about the solitary nature of the role. I've never been one to socialise much and in fact positively shy away from social interaction as much as possible. Yes I play sports and I see my team mates as friends, but real friends? The sort of friend that you'd trust with your life? As far as those I see regularly are concerned, I have one. I can always Skype him, can't I?

Going a step further, I have no doubt that my future involves living rurally, preferably by the sea, ideally on the part of the South Devon coast that I know so well. I would love to do this whilst my children are still young. They have a darned good lifestyle where they are, but relocating here would make their life idealistic. For two kids who love fresh air, being active, and are sports mad, the surfing/sea sports and other more traditional sporting activities would lead to much fun and frolic I'm sure.

However, before getting carried away, one must recognise a rather large caveat. Such an idyllic lifestyle wouldn't actually be that idyllic if constantly worried about sources of income. So whereas I can quite confidently say that coping with the solitary lifestyle of the gambler would provide no significant barrier psychologically, I am certainly not going to gloss over "the financial uncertainty" that would. In the meantime, this realisation that I am in effect a million miles away from achieving my ultimate ambition, focuses the mind. And I do believe that that is what I'm looking for. A focused mind.

Today's Betting

A good day for ProBandit who dutched in one race and found a very nice winner (Highland Harvest - Lingfield - 8/1).

Winning Racing Tips found two to place from three but a loss overall. No joy for Northern Monkey (0/2), On The Nose (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, +2.45pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.4pts, -0.71pts.

Monday 8th August: Staked £261, -£26.40.
August to date: Staked £1,526, +£601.91, roi 39.44%.
Running total (inc. fees): +£293.11, roi 3.33%.

A new direction.

2011-08-07T10:26:00.000-07:00

Quick weekend round up, as is the norm for a Sunday night.

Before I provide that round up though, a suggestion to go take a look at Graeme's 'The Football Analyst' blog (see link to right). Yesterday's post follows the theme of last week, ie. what we are in this gambling game for. Graeme doesn't do short posts so I suggest you do what I did. Make yourself a cuppa, get comfy, and have a good read.

Saturday's Betting

Great to have the football back, and a winning start to the new season for Football Elite (1/1). The Sportsman also played in two matches and was successful in one, thanks to an injury time winner. I had forgotten just how agonising football can be to follow when there is money on the outcome.

Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +1.2pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts.

I know it's a cliche, but On The Nose are currently on fire! At present, they are the gambling equivalent to a bus in Tottenham so ablaze are they. Four bets, two winners (Dhaamer - Haydock - 12/1 reduced to 9.6/1 following a Rule 4 deduction, and Averroes - Ascot - 6/1). They have had quite a week and deserve the day off they enjoyed today.

Winning Racing Tips finished even, their one tip finishing third (Monopolize - Newmarket - 5/1), whilst Northern Monkey and The Market Examiner were luckless.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +6.8pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, level.

Saturday 6th August: Staked £369, +£201.54.

Today's Betting

A very quiet day with just five horses backed, but a lovely winner for 4PA (Moonlight Cloud - Deauville - 11/1) ensured it was another profitable one. 4PA did also back the losing favourite in the race, but the right horse won for greater profit.

No success for Northern Monkey (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/2).

4PA: Staked 2.5pts, +5.1pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

Sunday 7th August: Staked £129, +£175.
August to date: Staked £1,265, +£628.31, roi 49.66%.
Running total (inc. fees): +£319.51, roi 3.75%.

Just before I go, a quick heads up on something that over time, will add something to the blog. I'm starting to learn the trading game. I'm hiring some expert advice and guidance for my period of learning, which I fully envisage to be a pretty lengthy period of time indeed. No details just yet, but all will be revealed in the fullness of time.

Now go and read Graeme's post...

Giddy

2011-08-05T13:45:00.000-07:00

I'm well excited tonight! Placed the first football bet of the new season, courtesy of Football Elite. I'm like John Terry having talked his way into the players' wives Christmas do!

Nothing deep and meaningful from me tonight. Plenty of time for that next week. Another superb comment left last night though. Please do read. It's comments like the ones made over the last few days that make this blog worth writing.

The philosophical stuff seems to have struck a chord. It's now being discussed on other blogs and getting other people's perspective on those is well worth reading too.

Today's Betting

A cracking tip today from On The Nose, who went in large on a very nice winner (Roicead - Tipperary - 7/1).

Northern Monkey also tipped a good 'un (Quasi Congaree - Newmarket - 8/1), as did PJA NH (Red Not Blue - Worcester - 6/1). PJA also found one to place (Grovemere - Worcester - 7/1), a race in which Chasemaster didn't have much luck, one horse falling at the first and another in strong contention for a place at 16/1 until approaching the last fence when it pulled up sharply as if there was something amiss.

Also luckless today was The Market Examiner.

PJA NH: Staked 2pts, +2.65pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +6.062pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Friday 5th August: Staked £194, +£164.85.
August to date: Staked £767, +£251.77, roi 32.82%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£57.03, roi -0.71%.

No post tomorrow, which will be the norm for Saturday's I think.

Have a great weekend all.

A personal perspective.

2011-08-04T13:33:00.000-07:00

Any more ideas on why we're putting ourselves through the wringer then? I'll outline my own personal thoughts, although I realise that everyone will have their own reasons.

The motivation for my gambling is essentially to generate an additional income at a rate of return that is superior to other, more conventional means of income generation. I have little faith in the capability of my pension, into which I seem to contribute an increasing level of funds each month, to pay for my old age. Nor the second property from which we receive rent but on which we must make a monthly mortgage payment. I have no wish to launch into a diatribe of a social commentary that ends with the conclusion that this country and all who sail in her are completely screwed, but my humble opinion is that this country and all who sail in her are completely screwed. I hate to say it, but the years of being able to rely on the State to provide for the individual are over. No longer can somebody gain employment at 18 or 21, be secure in their employment, pay their NI contributions or equivalent for 40 years and then retire at the age of 60 with a carriage clock and a trip to the Post Office each Wednesday to look forward to, to pick up their reward for all those years of catching the No.16 into work every day - ie. a comfortable living via the state pension.

No. Personal opinion only here, but to me, the only way forward is for the individual to make their own living and to seek out ways of paying for a comfortable future. And I came across running a portfolio of tipster services in a professional way and recognised the concept as having the potential to generate a healthy rate of return. Convention has it that with the potential for a higher return comes higher risk. But I would question this. Does my exploitation of others' (the tipsters) skill in choosing a horse or football team to win really present a hugely bigger risk than some anonymous Fund Manager with no indivual accountability or sense of duty to the investor sticking my money into what he perceives to be the share stars of the future? Property has been a winning investment for years, but returns over the last year or two have tailed off somewhat and with economic conditions as they are, could possibly take decades to start producing the goods again. So is gambling higher risk than these more conventional saving methods? Yes, I'm sure it is, but perhaps there isn't as wide a gap as there once was.

So, that's the basic premise upon which I started my own 'serious' gambling. However, there is more to it than that. There are also lifestyle issues to consider. Done properly, gambling has huge potential to be able to change the way a life is led. I do genuinely believe that it can open up opportunities to enjoy a way of life that conventional, 8.30 - 6.00 PAYE work cannot, and I don't mean flashy cars and loose women, more's the pity! Hard work, yes. But gambling seems to me to be more time efficient than being stuck in an office all day.

Banaz and Mark have made some exceptionally insightful comments after last night's post. Please do take time to read them if you haven't done so already. I couldn't agree more with what Banaz said and there are themes I would like to explore further next week and see exactly why having a plan (short, medium and long term) is so important on a personal level. Also, reading Mark's comment has cemented some ideas that I was beginning to formulate that will effect how I go towards achieving certain ambitions. I'm hopeful that others, further down the gambling road than myself, might chip in as we go along. I think there are plenty of us that would learn a lot if those folks with more experience - like Paul R. who also left a comment last night - were to do so.

To be continued.

Today's Betting

A very quiet day again today, although The Market Examiner tried valiantly to liven it up a bit by wading in with six selections (one later declared a non-runner). A winner was found amongst them (Oh So Spicy - Yarmouth - 9/2...reduced to 3.825/1 after a rule 4 deduction) but a very small loss on the day.

Success for Northern Monkey (Midnight Rider - Yarmouth - 100/30) from their one tip, albeit to a small stake.

Winning Racing Tips went for two in the same race. One unplaced and the other second (Badea - Haydock - 8/1).

Thursday 4th August: Staked £137, -£10.63.
August to date: Staked £573, +£86.92, roi 15.16%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£221.88, roi -2.83%.

Bollocks! Forgot the lottery numbers. Someone remind me tomorrow, will you?

What's it all about then?

2011-08-03T13:03:00.001-07:00

Influential chap, that Joey Barton. Certainly he's influenced me. No, I've not gone out and bought a packet of three Hamlet and made a note in my diary as to when the next work do is scheduled. Nope, rather Our Joey's recent stream of quotes from the great authors and philosophers on Twitter (that's Joey on Twitter - not Nietzsche, Descartes or Voltaire - I don't follow them) has put me in something of a philosophical mood. And as such, I find myself asking this: just what am I trying to achieve with this gambling malarkey? Where is it all going? What am I trying to achieve?

Deep, I know. But have you ever asked yourself these questions?

Let's face it, for the majority of the time, there is a heck of a lot of hard work going into something that doesn't seem to be giving you much back. No matter how much equanimity you can bring to your gambling, serious gambling (and by serious I mean working to a plan as opposed to haphazard betting) raises one's stress levels does it not? Losing runs are common, occasionally interrupted by the high induced by a good win. Is this enjoyable? Not as much as it should be - whenever I have a really good day, yes there's a rush of adrenalin and satisfaction, but it is soon reigned in by my "serious" betting head instructing my "frivolous" betting heart to "Get a grip, Man!", and to "Stay calm, check your emotions before you allow them to run away with you. Stick a pillow over your joy and suffocate the life out of it", and other such sensible, if verging on the sinister, mutterings.

I work for a living. At this point in time, I can't envisage ever gambling professionally in the true sense of the word (although that doesn't mean I wouldn't like to try). So if us serious gamblers don't really allow ourselves to enjoy what we do too much, and if those of us who work don't rely on the income we hope to generate to live our lives, then just what the heck are we trying to achieve? Are we some form of collective saddos (what would be the collective noun? A sigh of punters? A coven of gamblers?), experimenting in some weird form of masochism?

I'd be interested in hearing people's views on this. Leave comments if so inclined. Tomorrow, I'll see if I can give my answers to these questions.

Today's Betting

Just five horses backed today and one rather nice winner.

It was only two days ago, in my July racing review, that I mentioned that I thought that On The Nose was running into a bit of form. This theory was based on the fact that over the last few days of the month, they had repeatedly got long priced horses to place, but none had actually won. Well, call me a genius (because I am, you know) but look what happened today...(Conciliatory - Brighton - 16/1). Don't you just hate people who say I told you so!?!

No luck today for The Market Examiner (0/1) or for ProBandit (0/2).

The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +9.5pts.

Wednesday 3rd August: Staked £114, +£106.
August to date: Staked £436, +£97.55, roi 22.37%.
Running total (inc.fees): -£211.25, roi -2.74%.

Tomorrow I will tell you all the winning numbers for the Euro Lottery draw, admittedly not necessarily in the right order. Even I can't be expected to do miracles you know.

July - Sports

2011-08-02T09:33:00.000-07:00

Bit misleading that title. The only sports service in action in July was the newly rejoined On The Oche. The final figures were...

On The Oche: Staked 14.81pts, -1.577pts, roi -10.65%.

It must be noted that these figures are a little unfair to the service as having only rejoined at the beginning of the month, I was only able to take 7/4 on a winning antepost bet originally advised at 9/4.

It has been interesting following On The Oche this month. Never before have I stopped following a service only to rejoin at a later date. I was curious to see if any changes had been made. The answer to this is ostensibly no there haven't; the write ups are familiar, the timings of the emails the same. Scratch below the surface though, and I think there are a number of changes that have occurred and my belief is that the service is the better for it.

Thinking back to 2010 when I decided to stop following, I remember that there were two concerns that I had. One was that short term performance levels had suffered, and second that the number of bets seemed to be decreasing. I know Rich had previously played successfully in the smaller events but with liquidity in these markets being low and the minor events being covered by only a very small handful of bookmakers, he very reasonably decided that he couldn't make these plays official bets. Certainly it felt at the time as if turnover was decreasing.

I believe that when I made the mistake of not renewing my subs, I was perhaps influenced unduly by the SBC's decision to drop the service from their Hall of Fame. It was a decision I came to regret. Rich (the tipster) obviously had a big edge within his speciality. An email from Matt (the service administrator) at the end of the Football Elite season contained some facts and figures (non-promotional and not limited to On The Oche) that pointed out how the vagaries of variance had struck during a part of 2010, and made me look at On The Oche's performance in a wider context. I concluded that I needed to swallow my pride and ask nicely if I could rejoin.

So what are my impressions of the service now I've been following again? Firstly, that there is a distinctly different "feel" to On The Oche now. It feels more dynamic and as if Rich has benefited from a creative spark. A couple of new markets were played in in the first July tournament covered, successfully as it happens, that made me wonder if such bets were being sought back in 2010. Perhaps they were and no suitable opportunities found, but as the guy who just gets the email detailing selections, I have no idea whether that was the case or not. Matt too is utilising his experience at system development and in creating an edge to add to the potential for profit making. As a recent email explained though, this is merely to supplement Rich's expertise, not usurp it. The consequence of course should be more bets, thus countering one of my reservations from last year. Naturally Sod's Law dictated that Matt's selections contributed significantly to this month's loss, but I'm sensible enough to know that judging anything on such a short term basis is ridiculous. I have faith in Matt - I have been a member of Football Elite now for quite some time - and so believe it is only a matter of time before his angle produces solid dividends.

The communication from OTO has been excellent. From their missives it is quite obvious that they know where their edge is at it's strongest, and the areas they need to work on to improve. The impression I get is that the unique skills possessed by Rich and Matt are coming together very nicely, that they complement each other very well, and that the result is a strong and improving service. I could be wrong of course - it could be that whilst we're seeing the graceful motion of the swan, behind the scenes are a pair of furiously kicking legs. I'd be surprised though if OTO became another Horse Betting Index/Mr T scenario, where for whatever reasons, two associates couldn't work together.

A losing month for On The Oche, but a huge amount to like. I'm excited by it's potential.

Today's Betting

A nearly day today. Of eight horses backed there was one winner and no less than five that finished second!

A return to the battleground for ProBandit and their first race played in saw the winner picked (Blown It - Catterick - 9/4). There was also an each way selection that finished in the frame (Shakespeare's Excel - Southwell - 4/1) and a loser too.

Winning Racing Tips had two in the opener at Catterick, one finishing unplaced and the other finishing, yep, you've guessed it, second (Flombard House - 8/1).

No joy for Northern Monkey (0/1) or On The Nose (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
ProBandit: Staked 3pts, +0.337pts.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.4pts, -0.62pts.

Tuesday 2nd August: Staked £207, -£40.05.
August to date: Staked £322, -£8.45, roi -2.62%.
Running total: -£317.25 (roi -4.18%).

July - Racing

2011-08-01T12:32:00.000-07:00

Before we start tonight, a quick note to say that Phil Taylor winning the European Darts Championship last night contributed nicely towards an overall profit yesterday of £206.

So here we are for the first monthly review of 2011/12.

The final figures for July are: Staked £7,255, -£58.80, roi -0.81%.

Deducting a month's fees, the running total now is -£308.80.

The figures for the racing services alone in July are: Staked £5,774, +£98.95, roi 1.71%.

So from being almost £1k down at one stage (-£975 as recently as Wednesday 27th), to get out of July with a deficit of £58 feels like an escape. No elation here though. In stark terms, the first month of the new "financial" year has not relinquished any profit. Now I know that categorising results into months is not a particularly wise move and is merely a convenient splitting of time, but still, the clock ticks inexorably on and when put into the context of the previous six months' performance, July has been another mediocre period.

Having said that, I do think that July as a whole has to be regarded with certain caveats. Primarily it is a month that sees no football betting action. Turnover is vastly reduced and therefore the likelihood of volatility is that much higher. This situation is exacerbated somewhat by the fact that two of the racing services (Chasemaster and PJA NH) are jumps specialists, and as such it is inevitable that they stake less during the middle of the flat season than they would in the middle of the National Hunt season. So yes, a month has gone past without making any money, but the turnover for July will be only a very small part of the total amount bet come 30 June, 2012. August should start to see some of the flak being picked up, and then full systems go come September.

So here are a few thoughts on each service...

ProBandit: Staked 16.416pts, -5.971pts, roi -36.37%.

Half way through the month, Paul took the decision to suspend betting activity to give him time to run a full system health check on his selection criteria. Now I don't remember a service that I've been a member of doing this. I've known services cease to give bets out as a result of a prolonged spell of poor results, but I've never known someone take a couple of weeks out to see where things might have been going wrong.

I must say, I like this approach, but I do think it comes with an inherent danger. The positives of being cautious and taking some time to analyse affairs is that if something fundamentally wrong is found with the selection criteria, then by calling a temporary halt to proceedings to work out what it might be, a considerable amount of money is saved. I know there is a lot of negative sentiment about ProBandit's performance to date in 2011, but the figures for the preceding twelve months were still very good at the beginning of July. A drawdrown of around six points this month is not exactly bank threatening either; it's not as if this review was a last ditch attempt at salvaging some last vestiges of a betting bank.

The problem comes however, if results don't pick up. Say August gets off to a poor start, and by the 12th of the month we're five points down. Where do we go then? Personally, I wouldn't have a problem with it. The total drawdown would still be only a fraction over ten points and that is only a quarter of the bank. For Paul though, I can see there being big pressure as the doomsayers on various blogs and forums declare the forthcoming end of the ProBandit world.

Fingers crossed then, that August gets off to a solid start for ProBandit. There will be some that no doubt criticise for remedial action not being taken sooner. I know Kodagira advocated the dropping of the NQ bets some time ago, and that suggestion has turned out to be remarkably prescient as one conclusion that Paul has drawn from his analysis is that the NQ bets are adding very little, if anything, to the bottom line balance figure. From this point on, there will be no NQ bets.

I'm still a big fan of ProBandit. I still see it as being one of the "core" services of the porfolio. Here's hoping that my faith will be repaid.

PJA NH: Staked 19.75pts, +3.605pts, ROI 18.25%

Really beginning to enjoy the PJA blog. It's written with a sense of humour, is insightful, and invites the reader to take a look around inside the mind of the tipster. I think Paul is to be commended for opening his service up in such a manner, and long may the blog continue.

As far as July is concerned for the service, it's been quietly successful, chipping away at the losses incurred during a torrid run in the first quarter of the year. A very healthy return on a light month for staking.

Northern Monkey: Staked 28.75pts, +6.767pts, ROI 23.53%

A month of two halves for Wayne. Got off to a stormer before results tailed off during the second half of July. Still, a very strong roi and that makes it a good month. I did notice from Wayne's end of month review that my results show a profit of four points more - give or take - than the official figures. I do remember securing longer odds than those advised on a couple of winners but Wayne must be praised for such an 'honest' approach to the recording of results.

One thing I was a little surprised by was there suddenly became a lot fewer each way bets. Most selections were win only. I've no problem with this but it does mean that a less smooth ride is perhaps to be expected. It has also meant that I didn't stake as many points as I had envisaged during a "peak" month.

The Market Examiner: Staked 77pts, -5.8pts, ROI -7.53%

No need to add to my post last week that concentrated on this service. The weekend just gone also saw much of the loss recouped too, which was welcome. Enjoying the service. 'Nuff said.

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 7pts, -0.202pts, ROI -2.88%

I sense from his emails that Paul has an intense dislike for July as a month for betting in. His July record overall is poor and he claimed himself that to get through the month with no damage done could be seen as the best outcome that could be hoped for. He also mentioned that he may take the opportunity for a week or two of holiday next July. Looking at what happened across the whole portfolio this month, there's not much to argue with him on that one.

Chasemaster: Staked 2.25pts, +6.468pts, ROI 287.4%

That ain't a bad roi!

One tip from Chasemaster rescued the month for the portfolio as a whole really. Springaway - Stratford. That's all I need to remember July 2011 for. Had a couple of other good winners though that shouldn't be forgotten, and Peter and the boys came good after what was a pretty torid start to their life as an SBC Premium service. Pressure? What pressure? They looked it in the eye and laughed in the face of it!

4PA: Staked 37pts, -15.21pts, ROI -41.11%.

I found the recent analysis of the service provided by the SBC interesting reading. A couple of long-priced Basic System bets that weren't posted as Account bets had come in (one at 40/1), and naturally, I started to think of ways of incorporating these into the way I follow the service. It may still prove to be a prudent thing to do, but I am going to delay this for a little while at least. PCB has categorically stated that his strategy moving forward will be to steer a path a little closer to that of the Basic System bets with less digression as a result of his own contacts in the racing world. With this in mind, I shall preserve the status quo for now, and continue backing the Account bets only. Time will tell on this one.

On The Nose: Staked 54.25pts, +6.766pts, ROI 12.47%.

A decent month with the last few days seeing a few long priced selections running good races to land some decent place money, without any getting past the post in first place (this happened again today). I have a feeling that this is signifying a return to form and that it is only a matter of time before some serious profit making is made. I could be wrong, but I trust my instincts.

So there we have it. It could all have been a lot worse, really. Onwards and upwards...

Today's Betting

A fairly quiet start to the week.

PJA NH started the month nicely, their first bet an easy winner (Bathwick Man - Newton Abbott - 5/1). They had two others today, one of them finishing second (Exulto - Newton Abbott - 11/2). Had the line been literally two yards further up, it would have been a winner, so quickly was it gaining on the one that held on.

As mentioned above, On The Nose managed to get it's one selection placed for a profit (Midnight Martini - Ripon - 16/1).

No joy today for Northern Monkey (0/1), or The Market Examiner (0/3).

PJA NH: Staked 2.25pts, +1.775pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +1.5pts.

Monday August 1st: Staked £115, +£31.60.
August to date: Staked £115, +£31.60, roi 27.47%.
Running total (inc. fees): -£277.20, roi -3.76%.

Tomorrow a quick run down on the performance of On The Oche. Might be late though - it's my birthday. The big 4 0. Oh God! It really is time I started growing up.

It's been a tough month.

2011-07-31T13:17:00.000-07:00

Okay. I'm waiting for the final of the European Darts Championship to begin. Only when we know the result of this match will the final balance for July 2011 be known.

I'll do a quick weekend round up tonight and then take a look back over the last month in posts that will probably be spread over the next couple of days or so. There are some services about which I have a few thoughts that I would like to share, so the monthly review - if you can call it that - will be too long to stick up in just the one post.

Saturday's Betting

Not a great day on the horses or with the darts.

The only winner of the day was the sole tip from The Market Examiner (Zero Money - Newmarket - 5/1, although the return reduced to 4.75/1 after a Rule 4 deduction). On The Nose produced a decent profit on the day by finding the place money with two from their four selections (Valery Borzov - Goodwood - 14/1 and Kanaf - Goodwood - 25/1).

Unfortunately 4PA were 0/3, Northern Monkey 0/5, and On The Oche 0/1.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.
4PA: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, +2.287pts
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +4.75pts

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Saturday 30th July: Staked £352, -£167.25.

Today's Betting

Very quiet day on the horses, but what action there was was successful with The Market Examiner providing the only two bets, both of which won (General Elliott - Market Rasen - 8/1 and King In Waiting - Market Rasen - 5/1). Great weekend for The Market Examiner!

So far, On The Oche is 0/1. Let's hope for the right result in the final. I'll let you know how it pans out tomorrow.

So close to a repeat performance.

2011-07-29T13:04:00.000-07:00

Very quick tonight. Currently in between darts matches that are carrying On The Oche money. Great way to spend a Friday night. Helen's well chuffed and can barely hide her excitement at being able to spend the evening in front of the darts. She's so excited she's had to take a large glass of wine and her book into the bedroom and has locked the door. It's the only way she can keep herself away. At least I think that's what she said. I thought perhaps she might have said "awake", but surely not...

By the way, On The Oche hit one from three last night for a minute loss and the balance on the day was +£889.75.

Today's Betting

4PA was on Proponent (Goodwood - 16/1 and 18/1) each way, a very fast finishing second and had the winning post been ten yards further back, would have got up and provided a return not far short of that generated by Chasemaster yesterday. So many ifs, buts, and maybes, eh? They did also have a short priced winner (Harbour Watch - Goodwood - 8/11 and Evens) and a loser for what amounted to a second consecutive solid day.

Talking of Chasemaster, they went and rattled in another today from their two tips(High Bird Humphrey - Bangor - 13/2). Don't know what they're drinking at the moment (actually, Champagne probably, thinking about it) but I wouldn't mind a bit of it.

On The Nose had a pretty decent day too, finding a nice winner (Brave Dream - Newmarket - 5/1) and two to place (The Thrill Is Gone - Goodwood - 20/1 and Celendine - Galway - 11/1) from five.

No joy for Northern Monkey (from three bets), PJA NH (one), or The Market Examiner (two).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
4PA: Staked 5pts, +3.883pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4pts, +3.375pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.765pts.

Friday 29th July: Staked £392, +£237.39.

Now, back to the arrers. I have £250 staked over five matches, and so far we're 0/2. A winner or two would be nice to ensure a profitable day.

No post tomorrow - back Sunday.

Well, well, well.

2011-07-28T11:22:00.000-07:00

Today's Betting

Rather a quick one as I'm in late, as is usual for a Thursday. It's also not going to be a comprehensive record of the day's betting as there is some late On The Oche darting action taking place tonight.

Before I go into the ins and outs of what has been quite some day though, just a note that the balance from yesterday was -£75.

Now, any SBC members out there who frequent their forum will know what my thoughts were when it was announced that Chasemaster was to become an SBC run Premier service. I'm not going into the ins and outs again, and I think the folks at the SBC and I, like adults, have concluded that we simply have to agree to differ. At no time though were any of my concerns aimed in the direction of Peter and the chaps at Chasemaster.

At the beginning of the month, I felt for those at Chasemaster. Things were not falling in the way that they would have liked, and I could imagine that perhaps the pressure that you think might well come as part of the package that is a load of new SBC members subscribing, might begin to mount and make life uncomfortable. I don't know if the pressure was felt or not, but if it was myself operating in these circumstances, I'd have been feeling it a touch.

And so it was not only for selfish reasons that I was delighted when their one back tip (Springaway - Stratford - 40/1) strolled home by eight lengths at an SP of 18s. I'm genuinely really pleased for Peter and the chaps. Great, great tip, and very well done to them.

It has been quite some day for the SBC Premium services. We have all been aware of the trials and tribulations of 4PA this month, and so it was with a deal of relief that they found the winner of the first at the festival this afternoon (Labarinto - Goodwood - 6/1). They also had another each way advice place (Dirar - Galway - 9/1) with a loser in between. Not out of the woods yet for 4PA, but a step in the right direction at least.

Perhaps not as spectacular but solidly effective today was On The Nose. A nice winner (Opinion Poll - Goodwood - 11/2) and Dirar each way (8/1) were enough to prduce some nice profit.

The Market Examiner, Northern Monkey, and PJA NH all had just the one selection today but no return.

4PA: Staked 4pts, +6.406pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +2.75pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +6.25pts.

Thursday 28th July: Staked £259, +£902.25.

I'll update tomorrow on how the darts go tonight.

Funny old game, this, don't you think?

The Ghost of Tipster Future

2011-07-27T12:35:00.000-07:00

There was no delay at all to the follow up email from our man at Shaolin. In it, the chap painted a vivid picture of what is to be, with his wise words...

"Valued members,

it was a while since you last heard from me, and I apologize for this. It was brought to my attention that many of you did not get the notification that there will be no more picks in the 2010/11 season due to a huge mix-up in my email address base, and for this I sincerely apologize, as well as for the fact that I've been very slow to reply some of your emails in the last few months. The fact is that this email address has been mostly deserted over the last few months, as I've been looking to stay away from everything and contemplating about what to do with the service after a breakeven previous season.

The fact is that, for several reasons, previous season wasn't able to live up to the high standards set by the opening season of the service, and I was looking to find out just why, but, after several months of contemplating, I have to say that it was a bad combination of not sticking to the basics at the beginning of the season and an unavoidable poor run the system had in the second half of the season. Some consolation can be taken from the fact that the season didn't end in serious losses, but the expectations I have of myself and my system are much higher and there is no doubt it should've been much better.

Talking about the pragmatic side of things, the fact is that the below par season triggered extension clauses in most of the currently active subscriptions and that it has stalled further interest in the service, with only a few people enquiring about the possibility of joining the service over the last few months - needless to say, this isn't what I was hoping for when I started the season, and it opens the question of whether or not it's still feasible for me to run the service. After comparing performance graphs with what I was expecting for and consulting with other people running paid services, I've come to the conclusions that taking different routes in my betting career would be a better choice than continuing with Shaolin Predictions as a commercial project. Therefore, I am discontinuing Shaolin Predictions as a paid service and no new members will be accepted in the future.

However, there is still the question of the free subscriptions clauses triggered by the poor season as well as the question of members who's subscriptions are yet to expire. Although the service rules don't oblige me to continue providing picks on a free subscription basis in case of closing down of the service, I do feel that I owe something to the members, and with the system still boasting excellent long-term results, and with me ready to eliminate some of the errors in providing picks I've made last season, there is no reason to believe that the upcoming season won't be a profitable one. Therefore, I will continue providing system picks to everyone on the mailing list until the end of the 2011/12 season. However, please be aware that the aforementioned different routes I've decided to take in my betting career prevent me from providing picks past the end of the upcoming season.

To sum it up, the mailing list will continue to work the way it worked so far, in order to honor the subscriptions of the current members, while no new members will be allowed and no fees asked to continue providing picks. Once the 2011/12 season ends, sending of picks will cease.

There is also the case of the website not being updated with one losing selection and the information box not being required - this is currently out of my control, as I am unable to log in for some reason, while my previous attempts to reach our webmasters have been unsuccessful so far, as he is currently on a five month business stay in USA. I will try again to contact him through email and Skype, and will try to resolve this issue as soon as possible. Once we have get access to the website back, the missing selection will be added, while all future picks will be entered as well.

Regarding the upcoming season, one of the reasons why previous season was a rather below par one was starting the service too early, and not waiting until the system was fully loadable. This is an error I won't make again this season, and sending of picks will not start until early September - I will email you all around September 1st with the exact date.

Until then, I am back to regularly checking this email, and am open to all your questions and comments."

That goat of mine that was got yesterday, you know, with the use of the word 'delay'? Well, I can imagine that many in the Shaolin subscriber fraternity had their goats truly got by the opening two words. "Valued Member"?!? Pfft! There must be so many goats got by this choice of opening, that it is a veritable massacre of goats. An orgy of goat related violence. Today would not be the day to be a goat, let me tell you. Or anything that might resemble a goat. An underweight ram, perhaps. Or Ruud van Nistelrooy.

I digress.

Is this email really a serious attempt at regaining lost credibility? I'm not going to pick my way through it. I think it would be an easy enough task to rubbish literally every sentence. What gets me though, is the sense that he is doing us subscribers a favour by continuing next season, just next season mind. Well, what a gesture! What generosity! I tell you what, mate. Just send back my subs, and do one.

Today's Betting

What a plank I can be! I managed to leave my notebook with all today's bets in it at work. I can barely remember to get up in the morning, never mind which bookmaker I had which bet with and at what price. So what I'll do is forget the official figures tonight and add it all up for tomorrow's post.

Looking at it, The Market Examiner got 0 from 2, Northern Monkey 0 from 1, and On The Nose had an each way bet place (at 16s, I think) but no joy elsewhere. If so, I'm looking at another day, another loss, this time in the region of £80.

I shall try to be more organised tomorrow.

The ghost of tipster past.

2011-07-26T11:50:00.000-07:00

Well, well, well. Guess who sent me an email this evening. The chap from Shaolin Betting, that's who.

"Hello,

Sorry for the delay in reply, there will be an email sent out over the coming days. Don't worry, your subscription shall be honoured,"

Now I appreciate that at times I can err on the side of being just a touch cynical, but the first words rather got my goat. The use of the word 'delay', in particular. Trains are delayed for an hour or two. I might delay crossing the road so as to allow the traffic to pass. Not replying to an email orginally sent on the 10th May is not so much a delay, more a refusal to communicate, I'd say.

Still, as the email suggests, not to worry. Why would I worry? I've already written off the money paid for subs. Unreasonable of me I know, but after no tips for months and no communication - sorry, with there being a delay in communication - I had, rather prematurely it seems, given up on the service.

I must reconsider. After all, the chap's tone is such that obviously there was nothing at all to worry about. And - in what amounts to a real bonus - my subscription is to be 'honoured'. Oh, how wonderful!

I can't wait for the next email. I do hope it won't be delayed.

Today's Betting

As has been the theme this month, today suffered greatly as a direct result of the 4PA results. Another five points dropped at Goodwood today from four selections, and a big loss on the day was a somewhat inevitable outcome after that.

Hats off to PJA NH who did their valiant best to stop the rot. From four each way bets today, they found a winner (Fade To Grey - Worcester - 6/1) and two places (Nesnaas - Worcester - 8/1 and Mibleu - Worcester - 10/1).

Winning Racing Tips were close with their one bet which finished a close second to the hot favourite (Ghalaa - Beverley - 4/1), but only losses accrued from Northern Monkey (3 bets), The Market Examiner (1), and On The Nose (3).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
4PA: Staked 5pts, -5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +2.7pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.08pts.

Tuesday 26th July: Staked £399, -£227.
Running total: -£899.69 (roi -16.36%).

So July doesn't get any easier, does it?

Template for success

2011-07-25T10:29:00.000-07:00

It's coming towards the end of my first month as a member of The Market Examiner and thought I would drop down a few first impressions.

I have to admit, I have been immensely impressed. Results haven't been particularly great and I'm showing a loss of a fair few points, but in all honesty, that hasn't rankled at all. I was more than aware that the odds played at were generally on the long side and as sure as fish goes with chips, with that go losing runs. I'm also conscious that with a service like this, a couple of winners and suddenly the bottom line looks rosy indeed, so there's been no stress.

What I have been particularly impressed by though, is the care and consideration towards customers that Sam obviously takes a real pride in. Messages are prompt, performance updates regular, and in every respect the level of customer service attained is exemplary.

I was both heartened and relieved when a few days into the month, The Market Examiner announced that the doors to new members were closed. Having just edged into the service I was a little smug I confess, but what was gratifying to know was that here was a service that was putting it's current members first, as opposed to always chasing the tail that is attracting new members. It was deemed that prices were coming under too much pressure, and that a step in the right direction as to easing this pressure was to close the doors. Admirable, to say the very least.

Talking of prices, how refreshing to see a more than realistic approach to recording the 'official' odds. On the occasions where prices are dropping fast, even as the email with selections is sent, then Sam will record the bet at the odds that even the tardy are likely to have attained. On many occasions, I have actually secured better odds than those recorded. Not every time, but enough to notice.

The Market Examiner has fitted seamlessly into the portfolio. To be fair, I think that all the services followed now are run by honest, decent folks trying to do their best for their subscribers. The bar has been raised re. tipping services I feel, and each and every one of those in the portfolio have contributed to that process. Now if we can just start to make some decent money...

Today's Betting

A quiet day, but one so typical of July. Five horses backed, and no returns from PJA NH (3), The Market Examiner (1) and On The Nose (1).

PJA NH: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Monday 25th July: Staked £86, -£86
Running total: -£672.69 (roi -13.19%).

Blurghh!!!

2011-07-24T13:17:00.000-07:00

What is it about Mojitos? One leads to another which leads to another ten or so. And then of course, as defences are weakened and all sensibility disappears into a general haze of stupidity and false bravado, you start experimenting with those concoctions that each contain about 20 units of alcohol but taste like Ribena. Oh dear.

And so today I experience pain. An unremitting, dull pain of pains that lodges itself right between the eyes and refuses to shift for the best part of the day. The only respite is when the queasiness in the stomach starts vying for some proper attention.

Who throws a party on their 40th birthday, anyway? And whoever had the bright idea of providing a free cocktail bar for the night wants a damn good talking to. And a smack.

I refuse to accept any sort of responsibility for my delicate state today. Refuse. Oh yes.

To be honest chaps, I have neither the inclination or clear-headedness to blog much tonight. I am still in recovery. I shall keep things brief, if you don't mind...

Saturday's Betting

Right - message for 4PA...hunt down a gypsy and buy some lucky heather, fix that mirror you broke recently, nick next door's rabbit and make an offer it can't refuse for it's foot, and as you're based in Newmarket, there must be a horseshoe or two to be found that can be stuck over your door. They tipped Workforce who would surely have had a decent chance of winning yesterday had it not decided a couple of furlongs out that he'd rather find the nearest bar than run in a straight line. There was also a saver recommended on Rewilding. What happened to that one is no laughing matter, and I have to say, I found the whole thing pretty hard to stomach. Not nice.

On The Nose had a decent day, with a lovely winner (Bonnie Brae - Newmarket - 11/1) and a decent place with an each way shout (The Confessor - Ascot - 11/1).

Unfortunately, that was the full extent of the good news. Northern Monkey was 0/4, and The Market Examiner 0/2.

4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, +5.975pts.

Saturday 23rd July: Staked £221, -£31.50.

Today's Betting

On The Nose continued it's good weekend picking another winner (Medicean Man - Ascot - 3.7/1 on Betfair) and pairing Medicean Man with another that finished third (Foxtrot Hotel - Ascot) in an each way double that provided an extra three quarters of a point profit.

Northern Monkey's sole tip ran well to finish third to Medicean Man but was win only, and The Market Examiner's two selections couldn't collect.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +2.052pts.

Phil Taylor won the World Mathchplay tonight which landed On The Oche's antepost bet. I believe that members with the service a little longer than I secured an even better price but for those not on at those odds, the 7/4 pre-tournament price was advised. There was a third of a point staked as a saver on tonight's final, but the final balance on my first tournament back with OTO was a very healthy 19.81% return on investment.

On The Oche: Staked 1.31pts, +1.44pts.

Sunday 24th July: Staked £205, +£151.05.

Right. Bed.

Smart arse comments!

2011-07-22T13:02:00.000-07:00

Really quick post tonight as it's Friday night! Just one thing though. I've been having some problems recently with the 'Comments' section. Sometimes Blogger doesn't seem to want to let me reply to comments and a couple of times now I have noticed a number of comments have been left, but after trying to reply to the first, the other comments have suddenly disappeared!

So, if you have left a comment and I haven't responded, it's not me being rude, I promise. I just haven't had the opportunity to read it. The whole function seemed to be working again at lunchtime though, so hopefully it's all sorted.

Today's Betting

Another small profit eked out today. Need big profits to get the good ship July back on an even keel, but naturally I'd rather small profits than small/medium/large/humungous losses.

PJA NH read the 5.15 at Southwell rather well, it must be said. Two each way selections in the race, one won (Crosby Jemma - 12/1) and the other finished a head second (Lady Ann Neville - 14/1). Crosby Jemma actually returned an SP of 14s but unfortunately I wasn't on BOG.

Elsewhere in the racing, no joy to be found. Northern Monkey (three selections), The Market Examiner (two selections) and On The Nose (three selections) all fired blanks.

PJA NH: Staked 1.75pts, +4.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

In today's darts, On The Oche hit a nice winner by hitting the right side of the Total 180s line in the Lewis/Webster match with what I though was a particularly perceptive piece of analysis. Can't quite get their match bets right so far in this tournament though, with a half staked loser too. Went for what was the obvious value though, so no complaints at all.

On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, +0.5pts.

Friday 22nd July: Staked £301, +£49.
Running total: -£706.24 (roi -15.39%)

No post tomorrow. I'm at a friend of the wife's 40th birthday party. Not my idea of fun, meeting a load of people I don't know. I think I will engage my usual intellectual approach to making conversation...

"Do you like football? Really, no interest".

"Do you like horse racing? Oh, that's a shame".

"Do you like a bet? You don't. Why am I not surprised?

Oh, ffs - move on! "NEXT!"

I can be right charming at times.

Bumbling fool!

2011-07-21T12:36:00.000-07:00

Portfolio performance for 2011 so far has been poor. I have found myself wondering recently how much of this has been down to underperforming services, and how much has been the inevitable result of an underperforming me. Thinking back over the last six months, I can see some absolutely glaring mistakes that I've made that ultimately have adversely effected bottom line performance. Here are three...

1. Joining Shaolin Betting.

2. Stopping following the Sports Investor tips, then going back to backing them again, before stopping again!

3. Constantly changing staking and system followed with The Football Analyst.

There are others, I'm sure. But these are the ones that spring to mind.

Now, there have been other factors that have dragged down performance that can't be attributed to my general incompetence. PJA NH had an horrific first quarter to the year, Football Elite had a dreadful January and a not much better March, and the normally excellent 4PA's standard of performance has dropped significantly from it's 2010 heights. But even if allowing for this, I reckon my mistakes have ultimately been the difference between languishing in negative territory or edging into the land of milk and honey that is profit.

Furthermore, reflecting on the period July to December 2010 - a period in which my betting recorded a profit of over £6,000 at an roi of 10.47% - I recognise that I made other mistakes. Being subscribed to what were patently the wrong services, changing the staking, bottling it when enduring a bad run. You name it, I did it. If I were a racehorse, my betting competence would be the equivalent of running (and being thrashed) in sellers.

Which is all rather encouraging. I can do something about me. Self-flagellation is perhaps going a tad too far (although would probably meet the approval of my staunchly Catholic mother-in-law), but the experience gained and the lessons learnt should stand me in good stead. I can say openly, and with no concern about St.Peter denying me access to the kingdom of heaven for being a "lying git" (his words, not mine) that July's depressing balance sheet is absolutely no fault of mine. I have merely followed orders. And following orders is definitely the way to go until June 2012.

Today's Betting

'Consolidation', would be the right word to use I guess, after yesterday's profit. A small profit today, primarily thanks to a winner found amongst the four The Market Examiner selections (Plattsburgh - Doncaster - 5/1). On The Nose's one each way tip finished third (Shamacam - Sandown - 5/1). The only other service to play was Northern Monkey who drew a blank from their two small bets, although the first was backed down from 14/1 to 5/1 before finishing a not too far away second.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +0.188pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, +2pts.

Thursday 21st July: Staked £88, +£17.76.
Running total: -£755.24 (roi -17.62%).

A heads up.

2011-07-20T12:13:00.001-07:00

There are a couple of things that I'd like to draw folks' attention to.

The first is a new blog by Paul Ash, who runs the PJA Racing services (NH, Flat, and AW). I've been a member of PJA NH for quite some time now and have swopped a few emails with Paul over my time with them. Paul has always been very professional and is obviously extremely conscientious when it comes to running his services. Anyway, he is starting a daily blog of his own, which will track the performance of his selections and give insights into his thinking. I think he's brave, because no doubt during a bad run he'll be subjected to all sorts of abuse, but I also think it is very encouraging for a service to 'open' out like this and encourage interaction in much the same way as Sam has done with The Market Examiner. I really wish Paul well with it and you can go take a look yourself via the link top right.

There is another new link there too - to Betsmarttrading. This is the brainchild of 'The Judge' who is the mover and shaker behind the On The Nose service. He is creating an online community which includes blogs, discounts for members for trial periods of tipsters, a forum and a load of other stuff too. It's all free to sign up to. I've joined up and no doubt be sticking my oar into the forum and looking at it, the whole venture seems to have a lot of potential.

So there we go. Don't tell me I don't give you anything and this blog is all me, me, me...

Today's Betting

A rarity in recent times - two racing services turning a profit on the same day. Winning Racing Tips take the biggest plaudits after a lovely winner (Taaresh - Worcester - 14/1) which more than compensated for their unsuccessful each way double. PJA NH also found a nice winner (Tegan Lee - Worcester - 11/2) amongst their four selections.

Northern Monkey's sole bet was a loser, as were the two from The Market Examiner and the only bet from On The Nose.

PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +1.025pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, +2.96pts.

And so to the darts with On The Oche. One right (number of 180s in the Lewis/van der Voort match) from two for a profit on the night.

On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, +0.545pts.

Wednesday 20th July: Staked £318, +£202.70.
Running total: -£773 (roi -18.41%).

So, nice to make a profit. Would be nicer if we can repeat the trick tomorrow.

Housekeeping.

2011-07-19T12:11:00.000-07:00

Very quick one tonight as I'm in late and don't have a lot of time.

Alan asked for overall P&L figures for the year, after taking into account the cost of subs. Here are the final balances for each month of 2011 so far (it does not make for happy reading):

January: -£273.67
February: +£57.17
March: +£1,444.55
April: -£1,299.60
May: +£1,230.75
June: +£328.71

Fees cost £3k per year, so pro rata £1,500 for this period. Do the sums and it comes to a loss of £12.84.

To answer Alan's question totally accurately, then that £12.84 has to be added to July's dismal performance so far and a further £250 deducted for fees.

Moving forward, I will break down the figures in each post to the daily profit/loss, the month to date performance, and the year to date - the year running from 1st July 2011 to 30th June 2012.

(I have always considered this to be my financial year for two reasons. One, I started following a portfolio of services in a July; and two, I pay for all the football services in the summer (apart from Football Elite, which was one of the first services I ever joined).

At the end of each month, I will deduct £250 for fees from the running year to date total. That way, anyone reading can see exactly where we're up to. Obviously I haven't separated the ytd figures for the month to date figures in July, because they are exactly the same.

As we know, I have the portfolio set up as I want it. Barring extreme circumstances, it will not change until July next year, either in terms of services followed or staking. The plan is to avoid any deviation at all. If by 30th June, 2012 we are seeing a loss or a level of profit that essentially makes the hard work pointless, then I shall admit defeat and have a major rethink. I'm running the portfolio as if following instructions in a text book - let's hope it works, eh.

Today's Betting

Yet another losing day on the racing, albeit just a tiny deficit today thanks to Chasemaster, who broke their recent losing run with a nice winner tonight (Lord Ryeford - Bangor - 9/2). Of the other services, Northern Monkey had one very small bet which lost, The Market Examiner's three selections lost (although they had the horse that finished second to Lord Ryeford), and ProBandit's nightmare week/ten days continued with neither of their selections furnishing a return.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +0.703pts.

I thought I might eke out a small profit today, as On The Oche had a treble at the World Matchplay. On previous days the first two had won, and we were on the 1/5 shot Gary Anderson for the final leg, who promptly lost.

It seems that if something can go wrong, just at the moment, it does.

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Tuesday 19th July: Staked £202, -£106.69.
Running total: -£975.70 (roi -25.15%).

What's happening?

2011-07-18T13:03:00.000-07:00

Paul at Winning Racing Tips sent an email the other day, seemingly half apologetic for not giving many selections at present. Actually, apologetic isn't the right word, because if someone apologises, then it signifies that they have done something wrong. Not forcing selections is not doing something wrong, and Paul obviously knows this.

What caught my attention within that email though was the comment that July, for whatever reason, had historically been a poor month for the service. Perhaps this poor period for WRT is simply a coincidence or perhaps there is some logical, underlying reason for it but whatever, it got me thinking a little. It occurred to me that if we listened and reacted to the various reasons I regularly hear for a particular time of year to be a tricky time for the gambler, then we would very rarely gamble at all...

January/February: bad weather causes the postponement of race meetings and some trainers find it difficult to keep their charges fit when the gallops are frozen and unusable, making it very difficult to predict how any horse will run.

March/April: football betting becomes more unpredictable as the teams with nothing to play for go through the motions. Of course, when said demotivated team wins 5-0 away from home, it's obvious that they've played with a new found freedom. Either way, we're screwed.

May: a difficult period for gambling on the horses as we see the transition from the jumps to the flat.

June/July: the volatile nature of the typical British summer means that the going at most racecourses fluctuates on a seemingly daily basis between being as hard as a road and as soft as a bog, and this in turn makes predicting the outcome of races incredibly difficult.

August/September: football betting is hit hard as the form of teams is difficult to gauge with so few games having been played as the season starts.

October: tricky with the horses now as we see the transition from the flat to the jumps.

December: well, it's Christmas isn't it!?! Bound to have an effect.

Throw in the fact that the way BetFair can be exploited by the unscrupulous to make money out of losing horses and that in turn means that the whole racing game is bent, plus the fact that all the bloody tipsters are continually losing the plot, and that we all know deep down, don't we, that football is corrupt in Jonny Foreigner-land...what hope do we have?

I think I'll give up this betting lark. Either that or just back the nags in August. What do you reckon?

Today's Betting

Only ProBandit in action today and how they dropped a point is typical of how things are going at present. Their tip was Galpin Junior in the last at Beverley, each way. I managed to get 7/1 this morning. Now even allowing for the fact that there would be a 15p rule 4 deduction as result of two non-runners, you would be optimistic of at least a place return as it was backed down on course to 5/2 favourite. It finished nowhere. That is not a bad tip. But it is another loser.

I'm not going to do the overall figures tonight as there is an On The Oche bet starting shortly, so I'll update properly tomorrow.

Half term report - could do (MUCH) better!

2011-07-17T09:46:00.001-07:00

I have a 'Quiet Now' Nina Simone CD on the go as I sup from a large glass of Rioja. The kids have been encouraged to go and read quietly in their rooms. If I had a scented candle I would have lit it. And if this infernal rain was to ever stop, I would go for a walk so that I could take a couple of gulps of reconstitutional fresh air. Yep - you've guessed it. I'm trying to chill out, to relax and allow the disappointments of the punting weekend to fade gently away, consigned to a compartment within my brain labelled, 'Bin'.

Look, we all know the importance of long-term thinking. We know that to become emotionally embroiled is detrimental to our chances of achieving our ambition to at all times adopt a 'professional' outlook on our investing. But you know what? There are times when you wouldn't be human if you weren't effected by a run of poor results. Last time I looked, I was human, and I'd be lying to myself if I denied that I hadn't been effected by this bad run.

Since midway through June, the racing side of the portfolio has badly underperformed. That is a fact. There is no getting away from it and it is pointless to pretend otherwise. From being over £1,000 up for June, to finish that month at +£300, and to now be at -£783 for July is pretty poor.

So let's take a little look at where July is going wrong. Here are the basic figures for each service, month to date (rounded to the nearest point/percentage):

Northern Monkey: +19pts, roi 115%
PJA NH: -1pts, roi -12%
On The Nose: -2pts, roi -8%
The Market Examiner: -7pts, roi -13%
Chasemaster: -1.25pts, roi -100%
ProBandit: -4pts, roi -28%
Winning Racing Tips: -3pts, roi -57%
4PA: -15.5pts, roi -86%.

What can we glean from these figures?

Observation number 1: thank bejingos for Northern Monkey!

Observation 2: in a portfolio of eight services, only one is turning a profit. That is pretty dire.

Observation 3: if we strip from the final balance the two services performing at the extremes of the scale (ie. Northern Monkey and 4PA), the remaining services, although not exactly pulling up any trees, are actually only a shade away from turning things around. Is this clutching at straws? Quite possibly, but it is also a fact. None of these services are beyond the pale for July. They are each only a good winner or two away from turning deficit into profit. And those winners would only bring the monthly strike rate into line with their long term strike rate performance figures.

Of course, those winners may well never come. In which case, August is going to be one heck of a recovery mission!

Weekend Betting

Notable racing highlights of the weekend...The Market Examiner's winner yesterday (Now My Sun - Haydock - 5/1), On The Nose's success today (Captain Carey - The Curragh - 9/1), and, err....oh.

4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 5.75pts, +0.312pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 7pts, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.2pts, -1.44pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.

A nod of recognition to On The Oche. First bets back and a winner from two settled bets so far. I'll not mention the nature of the winning bet as it wouldn't be fair to the service who put the work into identifying the strategy. Suffice to say, it wasn't a simple match bet.

On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.562pts.

Total staked over the weekend: £722, -£226.90.
Running total: -£783.01 (roi -21.8%).

That peace and calm I mentioned I was searching for. Shattered! My daughter's bedroom door may be closed, but her music is blaring. Bloody Katy Perry! May have to dull the senses with a second bottle of Rioja...

I want to start as I mean to continue...TFA 2011/12.

2011-07-15T13:49:00.000-07:00

There has been a lot of discussion over in the SBC forum about the plans of The Football Analyst for next season. Regular readers of the blog will know that I essentially had TFA as part of the portfolio last season, but what with changing stakes, changing the systems I followed at certain times, etc., etc., I didn't make anywhere near as much money as I should have. The first half of the season was fantastic and there was one weekend in particular that still brings a warm, fuzzy feeling when I think back to it. However, due to a combination of the systems suddenly becoming a way of securing a fortune on the pools, were you of a mind to, with the incredible number of draws they hit, and my inconsistent staking and strategy, from Christmas to the end of the season was a period in which I gave more back to the bookies than I really ought.

So, lessons learnt. Pick a system, stick to it, and don't alter staking. Easy.

What I, and anyone else following, needs to do is to decide upon which system(s) to follow. There isn't a shortage of stats to look at on the TFA blog which can help with the making of such decisions, but before looking at these, I think it prudent to ask oneself what sort of service is wanted. One of the beauties of these systems is that it is possible to essentially make the service a bespoke service, tailored to the individual's needs. I get the impression from some comments about TFA that there is a belief that you have to place thousands of bets following numerous systems. That isn't strictly speaking an accurate reflection of what the service can provide. You can go for very high churn/lower roi or lower churn/higher roi and anything or everything in between.

Personally, I don't want too many bets each week. With Football Investor/Strike Zone providing a large number of bets and Skeeve's selections needing prompt action to grab the prices, I'm looking for a Football Elite-esque approach - perhaps 3-5 bets each week. System 7-22 has caught my eye with this in mind...the last three seasons have seen an average of 111 bets per season (compared to c.100 for Football Elite), enjoyed a strike rate of 49.96%, produced an average of 30.1 points/season profit at an average roi of 27.2%. As far as results go, attaining just half of that level over the course of the coming season would be fine by me! Only seven of the 28 months played in over those three seasons provided a loss, and two of those covered a month where there was just one bet and another which had just two (May 2009 and August 2009). Even with these included in the calculations, profitable monthly strike rate is 75%.

Mmmm...I think this is probably the direction I'll be looking in. More analysis needed though before any final decision is made.

Today's Betting

I couldn't help but find today rather frustrating. Three good winners, spread across three different services but with each, the winners were staked at a lower level than their other bets. The result was that this was a mildly profitable day, which is better than a mildly losing day, let's face it. But even so, it feels like today was one that got away rather.

ProBandit's first selection ran a shocker but their second got up by a short head to land the spoils (Powerful Pierre - Pontefract - 11/2). Northern Monkey really is alone this month in being in fine form, and today found another very nice winner (Duchess Dora - Pontefract - 7/1) albeit backed only to a small stake. The other service to turn a profit was On The Nose (Abdicate - Hamilton - 5.25/1 after r.4), who won rather well and never looked like getting beaten.

The Market Examiner was the other service in action today. Two losers from two.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +0.996pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, +0.625pts.

Friday 15th July: Staked £148, +£44.38.
Running total: -£556.11 (roi -19.38%).

Now, I'm off down to Shropshire tomorrow for the weekend so no post tomorrow. Back Sunday. Have a good one, chaps and chapesses...may the force be with you.

Poor.

2011-07-14T12:52:00.000-07:00

Really quick one tonight, as I've got in far later than anticipated...close three set match. I won. At this rate I'll be the UK No.3 by the end of the year!

Today's Betting

...was poor.

Summed up in one sentence. Blank day for Northern Monkey, The Market Examiner, On The Nose and Chasemaster.

Chasemaster is going through it a bit at the moment, and has been for a wee while now. Although it wasn't given as a tip, I notice that one of the three associates laid the 7/2 winner of the opener at Cartmel at 7.0 and backed an unplaced horse at 2s for which the SP was 3/1. And I thought I had it bad today! Feel for the guy.

Important to remember though that it was only a couple of months ago that Chasemaster could do no wrong. The old magic will come back for certain, but on a personal basis, I could do with it sooner rather than later.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Thursday 14th July: Staked £99, -£99.
Running total: -£600.49 (roi -22.06%).

The little worm that is July needs to turn. Soon.

Who do they think they are?

2011-07-13T12:02:00.000-07:00

I don't like hypocrisy. In fact, I hate it. I instantly lose respect for anyone when they do or say something that is undeniably hypocritical.

With this in mind, you can probably guess the reaction I had to the LloydsTSB customer service representative who was trying to explain to me why it was that their employer had prevented me from making two online payments, both to football tipping services.

I think I stayed remarkably cool - for ten seconds or so - but then the bluster and crap that I was subjected to became too much to bear. It probably wasn't Dawn's fault that my payments had been declined, but by golly was she going to cop an earful!

The bank had taken it upon themselves to act as my moral Protector you see. They obviously did not want me to succumb to the evils of gambling. I believe that they had conjured an image of me rising from the coal face in a South Yorkshire mining town, picking up my week's wages of two and sixpence, sinking a pint or two in 'The Carthorse' before stopping off at the bookies on the way home to fritter away most of what little remained of the family's income for the week on a couple of nags at Pontefract. Waiting at home for me would be my long-suffering wife (that bit's true, I guess), having to feed eight mouths with whatever pittance was left. The six kids would have to make do on cabbage soup for the week again, and two of them were showing signs of scurvy. And it was all my fault - all this was the direct result of my irresponsible gambling habit.

But hope was at hand. Those moral crusaders, the banks, had decided to intervene. And so it was that two of the finest football services in the land had to wait for their subs for next season whilst I sorted this mess out.

Seriously, the bank told me (through Dawn), that seeing attempted payments going out to "gaming" services had alerted them to potential breaches of security, and that said "gaming" services was on their list of undesirables. I pointed out that if they cared to look over my statements, every other transaction was either to or from a bookmaker. I also pointed out that this was the third time they had frozen my account, and that my levels of frustration were becoming dangerously high.

Dawn didn't sound too impressed with my reasoning. In fact, she sounded bored. Talk about red rags... I was off. How dare the bank attempt the moral high ground. I rather forcefully suggested that it was the "gamblers" employed by the invesment banks and those of the investment arms of the high street banks that had cocked up so magnificently that the world was facing it's biggest economic crisis in living memory. That it was because of the pension fund's "gamblers" making such a balls-up of investing my money for my future that I had to seek other sources of income to try and ensure that I don't spend my retirement in abject poverty. Stick that up your moral arse, I suggested to Dawn.

"Have you quite finished, Sir?", she said. "I've cleared your account and you will be able to make your payments now, Sir".

Hypocrites!

Today's Betting

The next time I decide I'm going to write a post sticking up for one of the services that is going through a lean spell, I shall stop a while and think. For it seems that by doing so for ProBandit the other night, I placed upon them a curse that inflicts a plague upon the ProBandit house. Today was a shocker for them.

Northern Monkey and The Market Examiner provided no returns, and Winning Racing Tips - which recommended an each way double - saw the first horse scoot home but the second finish a distant second, so a small loss there too.

A decent tip from On The Nose though (Suited And Booted ew - Lingfield - 14/1) which finished third and a return of just under a point.

Leaving the best until last though, PJA NH came up with the winner (Diamond Mm - Worcester - 8/1) and third (Bon Spiel - Worcester - 10/1) in the 9.10. Saved the day a little, that.

PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +3.375pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.9pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.118pts.

Wednesday 13th July: Staked £259, -£33.12
Running total: -£501.49 (roi -19.08%).

Day off tomorrow. Any chance of sun?

Quick one.

2011-07-12T12:13:00.000-07:00

Very quick post tonight as I'm in late and I'm starving. Need my dinner. I get grumpy when I'm hungry.

Today's Betting

One small step forward yesterday, and a small step backwards today.

Northern Monkey: Fine form continued as NMP found the only winner of the day (Mojolika - Beverley - 100/30). Trouble is, it was also the smallest bet of the day.

The Market Examiner: Not such a good day with four selections beaten.

On The Nose: One small win bet that didn't.

ProBandit: After yesterday's post I could have done with the two selections in the race coming first and second. They didn't. They came second and third.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, +0.833pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 5pts, -5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Tuesday 12th July: Staked £111, -£89.34.
Running total: -£468.31 (roi -19.77%).

Right. Where's my grub?

Decoy runs.

2011-07-11T13:28:00.000-07:00

Everybody who seems to know what they are talking about preaches the necessity to gamblers of adopting the long term approach if ultimately they are to be successful. We learn of the detrimental effect to our short term performance that can be caused by variance. Seasoned gambling pros tell of the need to give a system/tipping service/methodology sufficient time to prove itself before jumping in with both feet and going large with stakes. Most serious reviewers also warn against drawing premature conclusions about a tipping service over too short a period of time, either when things are going badly or amazing profits being made. A sample of results, it is said, must be of a certain size before they are at all meaningful statistically.

It's all well and good, this need for a long-term "mindset". But it's not so easy to train the brain to concentrate on the long-term and dismiss the need for some short term gratification. It's all very well Sting being into all this tantric whatnot. I bet there are times when he simply fancies a quickie. And so it is with betting. I don't know about you, but I am constantly having to draw my neck in and keep reminding myself of the importance of not getting too absorbed in the here and now. When running a sizeable portfolio of tipping services, the skirmishes with the bookmakers occur each and every day. There is no let up. No respite. And it is this grind - this incessant, remorseless need to get bets on day after day after day - that makes maintaining a mentality focused on the long-term so very difficult. It is only human nature, is it not, to want to see some sort of reward for all the effort that is going in? It's not jam tomorrow that I want. It's milk and honey today.

Let's look at ProBandit in this context. Now I know (and I mean know), that here is a service that can rack up good profits over a sustained period of time. I saw it with my own eyes and my betting returns were considerably boosted by my following this service over the second half of last year. Since then though, things have become much tougher for PB. The calendar year to date has seen the balance sheet showing a deficit of around half a point. Half a point! That's not so much standing still as lying in a bed in a Critical Care Unit in a comatose state for six and a bit months. All that bet placement. All that result recording. For what? What has been the point of it all?

Well I have a view on this. I think it is very easy to disregard the role that a service that hasn't lost any meaningful amount of points over a decent period of time plays in the wider context. If we accept that it simply isn't possible for every service to be racking up great profits month after month, then we must look at the alternatives. How would we feel if every service we followed was either flying or slumping? I know how I'd feel. I'd be an emotional wreck. A quivering jelly. So I don't look at ProBandit as being pointless. I see it as being solid. A rock. But I have the advantage of knowing that this rock has the potential to one day "find" itself again and start to contribute strong profits once more. At this moment in time, I liken ProBandit to the forward who hasn't scored for a while but keeps making the decoy runs that pull opposition defenders out of position, and by doing so, allow his teammates to score. The scorer gets the plaudits from the fans and the media, but the guy who made the goal possible receives the acknowledgement of the manager, the chap who really knows the player's worth to the team.

So there we have it. ProBandit is currently the Emile Heskey of the portfolio. But there will come a time when it will be the Thierry Henry again. Of that, I am sure.

Today's Betting

Very quiet day today, but a couple of winners and a profit.

Northern Monkey: Continued their fine form today. One selection, one winner (Timeless Elegance - Ayr - 4/1). It's been a great start to the month for NMP and I'm really hoping they push on and produce that really big month that they contribute from time to time.

The Market Examiner: Another service finding winners now and one more today (Cruise Tothelimit - Windsor - 11/2) from their two selections.

Not such success from On The Nose or Winning Racing Tips which each gave one tip which didn't make the frame.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, +3pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +4.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, -0.4pts.

Monday 12th July: Staked £88, +£70.
Running total: -£378.97 (roi -16.79%).

Apologies.

2011-07-11T00:20:00.000-07:00

I wrote a post last night. It started with an explanation that it was to be a short one as Blogger.com was being temperamental. It finished with the words, "I hope I can publish this post...". Well, I couldn't.

In short, £152 lost from £152 staked as PJA NH, The Market Examiner and Chasemaster drew blanks.

Hopefully normal service will be resumed and I'll be able to post properly again tonight.

Rapped knuckles but relief all the same.

2011-07-09T11:27:00.000-07:00

Now I know that you know that I rambled last night. "Why use one word when ten will do?", was the question that immediately sprang to mind when I read through my own post. I knew that there'd be someone out there who could say the same thing, only more succinctly, and in a way that made much more sense. Curly it was, who stepped up to the plate, and became that someone...

"I think a simple way to look at it is through flipping a coin (I appreciate that your tipsters may select the same selection and/or different selections in the same race and so it's not a direct comparison).

If you flip a coin once the two possible outcomes are either heads or tails - so if you bet £50 @ evens on heads the expected value or number of heads is 0.5 and therefore you have an equal chance to double your money or lose all of it. If you decide to flip this coin 4 times you now only have a 1/16 chance of doubling or losing all your money but you also have a range of options inbetween - a 1/4 chance to win £50, a 1/4 chance to lose £50 and a 3/8 chance of breaking even.

Assuming all your services have the same Expected Value (essentially the mean of their results) then by including more services you are in theory reducing your risk to randomness or, the variance in the results. Of course if your services expected value is actually negative then by reducing the variance you're increasing the likelihood you'll lose although the rate at which you lose will likely decrease."

The significance of that last sentence mustn't be missed. Ultimately, all is flawed if the services that make up the portfolio are flawed, and money will be lost over the long term.

Anyway, thankyou Curly. For more logical writing and dare I suggest, not a ramble in sight, please read Curly's blog. I've stuck a link up top right.

Today's Betting

Reading the Racing Post this morning, I thought that if I could escape with a of loss under £100 today, I'd be doing ok. Nightmare, big-field handicaps. Open and competitive group and listed races. On the face of it, the cards looked collectively like a punter's worst nightmare. So to make a profit, even if only a smidgeon, I see as a right good result. Thing is though, to end in positive territory, I needed to rely on a huge piece of luck. I only gained the opportunity to enjoy that piece of luck by being completely incompetent. And that pees me right off. I got away with it today. I won't always.

4PA: The piece of luck I'm referring to was that I sloppily misread the 4PA message this morning, putting 1.5pts on Pekan Star win only. The actual bet was 1.5pts each way. As the horse finished way out of the frame, my mistake saved me £60, and thus ultimately I finished the day with a profit and not a loss.

Now that's all well and good, but I hate making mistakes like that. It doesn't happen very often, and I pride myself on paying attention to detail. The thing is you see, if this sort of mistake was to become a habit, then it would be only a matter of time until a big win is missed. The sort of win that can greatly effect the final year's figures for a service, never mind the day's figures. Imagine putting only half of the correct stake on a 33/1 winner, for example.

So, rapped knuckles for me.

Poor old 4PA is having a rough time of it at the moment. Their other two selections also ran poorly and nothing seems to be going their way at present. Matter of time of course, before it all turns around again. Form is temporary and all that.

Northern Monkey: In contrast, what a very pleasant couple of days it's been for Wayne at Northern Monkey. Yesterday's triumph with Coeus followed nicely today with a decent bet (the largest from Northern Monkey on the day) on Medicean Man (Newmarket - 6/1) , a nice winner in the last.

On The Nose: Real signs of a return to form here too as yesterday's 14/1 winner is followed by another victory found amongst today's four selections (Masamah - York - 13/2).

The Market Examiner: Difficult to improve on a one bet, one winner day that TME had today. Two winners in two days at Chester (Colour Vision - Chester - 7/1). As this morning's message said, there were all sorts of market moves going on today, so to sift through all and find just the one that went in nicely is top tipping in anyone's book.

ProBandit: Just one small and ultimately unsuccessful bet from ProBandit.

4PA: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +3.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4.5pts, +1.4pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +7pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Saturday 9th July: Staked £280, +£19.
Running total: -£296.97 (roi -14.72%).

Right then. I'm off to enjoy a bottle or two of Peroni and the finest of traditional English cuisine - a lamb chilli massala - in front of a film.

Adios.

A step in the right direction.

2011-07-08T11:59:00.001-07:00

It's official. I am a wreck. A poor excuse for a man.

Having taken a week to shrug off a cold, I woke this morning to a raging eye infection. Seriously, couldn't open my right eye and when I forced it open, the light was a nightmare. Acute conjunctivitis, according to the quack. So, antibiotic ointment and eye patch (yes, an eye patch!) in hand, I somehow struggled into work to receive the sympathy and understanding of my long-term comrades. Perhaps a cuppa and a biscuit brought to my desk? No. One colleague saw fit to take a photo of me looking like a cross between Captain Pugwash and Gabrielle and stick it up on Twitter. Sods!

Another question in the 'Comments' box last night...

Hi,i read a fair few blogs from time to time, the one thing i dont understand is why pepole have so manys racing sevices on the go at the same time. could you please tell me your thinking behind this? from a wannabe.

I can understand this question being asked, particularly when things aren't going so well. During a bad patch, the potential to be losing money at a rapid rate of knots is increased somewhat by there being many drains down which the cash can be swept.

However, by diversifying, the risk of losing more, is actually lessened. Now a proper analysis of the principles of diversification in correlation to risk management is beyond me, I'm afraid. There are people out there much more qualified than I to talk about this - Graeme Dand of The Football Analyst, Mr Gekko at the SBC, and Mat Hare who writes the Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler blog are three that immediately spring to mind. Perhaps though, I can show the relevant laws in action via example...

A lot is made now of the need for the individual to create their own pension pot. Due to longer life expectancies and a larger population, to rely on the state pension and retiring at 60 is no longer an option. So instead, we have to save.

So say at 25 years of age, I start to put some money away each month into a company pension scheme. That scheme is managed by a Fund Manager who decided which shares should be invested in using my money, the aim being that over the years to retirement the overall value of the shares will grow and produce a return. Over the course of my 35 year career, I only put my money into this scheme. But, horror of horrors, in my last year before retirement, there is a stock market crash and my returns from my pot are reduced significantly. I've been stung, simply because all my eggs were in just the one basket.

Now compare that situation to one in which I split my savings between the pension fund, a buy to let property or two, a direct investment in government bonds, in gold and precious metals, etc, etc. My eggs are spread and I ought not, theoretically, be left in the same mess when the stock market crashes, because the price of gold has risen and is strong, and I am receiving an income from the rent on my second property. In other words, you have spread your risk. Yes, the stock market crash has diluted your returns somewhat, but you are not wiped out.

In a gambling scenario, if we look at the first quarter of this year with a portfolio of just PJA NH, you'd have lost a considerable amount of your bank. However, if you had both PJA NH and The Market Examiner, you'd have made an overall profit. In six months time, The Market Examiner may be really struggling, but PJA NH be playing a blinder. And the more services there are in the portfolio, the lower the probability of your entire portfolio performing abominably over a sustained period of time. In other words, the overall returns from a larger portfolio ought to show a smooth upward curve. Yes there will inevitably be short term blips, but over time. the graphline should be nice and steady.

One last thing I would say though, is that ideally, the portfolio of services should show diversification in itself. If all the services that you followed adopted similar methodologies and targeted the same types of race, then you could be in trouble. I think mine reflects this principle. Winning Racing Tips go each way in non-handicaps, Northern Monkey and (generally speaking) On The Nose go each way in handicaps, 4PA targets the big races, Chasemaster the NH chases at minor tracks, PJA NH handicap chase and hurdle races, The Market Examiner win only at long odds in all kinds of races, and ProBandit dutching at shorter prices on the flat. That's a fair old mix.

Anon - I hope that answers your question. One thing though - all this is theory. It makes sense, but when the services are all underperforming at the same time, as they have over the last few days, it is very easy for the brain to forget these principles and simply concentrate the mind on the money being lost. And that is when the devils start to whisper in your ear, getting you to change stakes, reduce services, etc. In the grand scheme of things though, a few days really is completely irrelevant, and that's what we need to focus on.

Today's Betting

Well, that's a bit better. A profitable day at last, and a good one at that.

4PA: I don't know who PCB has upset, but he needs to go find them, apologise, and get the curse lifted. His first bet was an each way bet at a long price which didn't place which is fair enough, but in the second race he played in he had Memory which refused to leave the stalls, and Saphresa, whose jockey raced far too far back before passing every horse except the winner who had first run on him. For the second time in a week, 4PA was on by far the best horse in the race but didn't collect.

On The Nose: Three selections today from Dean and the last of them was a lovely winner (Kanaf - Ascot - 14/1) backed win only. Hopefully this signals a return to a bit of form.

Northern Monkey: Similar story here. A fantastic winner at a good price, and staked more heavily win only (Coeus - Newmarket - 14/1). There were five selections in all and I thought most of them ran well enough to be honest so again, I'm hoping a bit of form is being hit. The signs have been there for a little while now actually.

The Market Examiner: Another nice winner amongst their three selections again today (Jungle Bay - Chester - 9/1). Becoming a bit of a habit.

4PA: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +5.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, +18.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, +7pts.

Friday 8th July: Staked £316, +£404.
Running total: -£315.97 (roi -18.19%).

Still a long way to get back to break even, but a step in the right direction.

Ramblings.

2011-07-07T11:36:00.000-07:00

Three observations today.

1. Ocean Colour Scene's 'Moseley Shoals' is a jaw-droppingly good album. In fact, if I was the sort of chap to compartmentalise everything in my life, this album would be placed in the box marked 'Ambrosia'. That's the sort of ambrosia defined in the OED as, "the food of the gods" (in ancient Greek mythology). I wouldn't be wanting to compartmentalise Moseley Shoals by putting it in a box of supermarket rice pudding. No. That would be all kinds of wrong.

My neighbours I'm sure, would have appreciated my fine musical taste as I had it blaring on the car stereo as I left for work at seven this morning. In fact I know they did. My immediate neighbour, the one with the new born baby that isn't sleeping so well yet, gave me a real stare when I arrived home tonight at the same time as he. I read that stare - there was a lot of respect in it. You could tell by the way he puffed his cheeks and shook his head slightly as if to say, "Wow. Respect.". Oh yes, I can tell these things.

2. Congestion/mucus/snot - call it what you will - is a monstrous and evil thing. I spend the first half hour of my day sneezing, coughing, blowing my nose and generally emptying my upper respiratory system of what looks like that bright green slime stuff that was all the rage about 25 years ago. This, people, would be placed in the box marked 'John Terry'. And then burnt. The box that is. Not John Terry. Although two birds, and all that...

3. A chap called Curly left an extremely good question after last night's blog post. The sort of question that IF I was prone to self-indulgence (heh, the very idea of it!!!), I could take about a week's worth of blog posts answering. So I shall place my box of chocolates to one side, tell my wife to stop peeling the grapes for me, take a last draft from my bottle of Petrus '61, and start to put down my thoughts...

Here is the question:

"Long time reader, first time commenter. Or something like that anyway.

I like the fact that you had an original plan and stuck to it. I also like that along similar lines you're fully prepared to ride out variance and give all your services a fair chance to make money over 12 months. I don't run a portfolio of tipster services, in fact I've never even paid for a tip so my experience and knowledge of the area is limited. However, it stands to reason that any long term punting strategy will inevitably suffer a significant drawdown. It also can't help that the European football seasons are still weeks away from starting, as increasing the number of selections should reduce the variance.

I was wondering a couple of things - both of which I'll understand if you don't want to get into. Firstly, how big of a drawdown does £640 represent against your combined banks? I notice that you obviously have varying banks for your services which I assume must be weighted against your projection of expected risk/reward. To that end if you were to smooth out your average expected returns where would you expect to be? I guess this links in with your expected maximum % drawdown and likely/(eventually) actual length of recovery.

Anyway, completely understand if you'd rather not answer, I'm really only curious. "

Well, first things first, Curly is dead right when he points out the fact that the lack of football betting at the moment is meaning that the porfolio is more susceptible to the kind of losing run it's currently enduring. There are fewer bets at longer prices. That equals an increased risk of suffering drawdowns. I probably won't be thinking so logically when I'm lumping on the On The Oche bets a little later in the month. Not because of a lack of trust in On The Oche, it's just that the bet size will be considerably bigger and I'll be thinking I've lost enough money already to be risking that size of stake. Psychology is a wondrous thing. But I know that Curly is dead right.

As far as the drawdown is concerned, well it's now bigger than £640. That amount is also not recognising that halfway through June I was £1k up for the month and yet finished only £300 up. So the drawdown is actually nearer £1,500 now. As a portion of the sum of my financial banks, this is about 7.5%; a not inconsiderable chunk, but far from disastrous. I do leverage the banks at a rate of 1.5, ie. 50% of the "paper" bank (the 7.5% figure is of the real financial bank, not the pre-leveraged amount). This, I believe, is a pretty high leverage figure, but I feel it is justified by the diversity in the portfolio - in other words, the fact that there are 15 services allows me to push the leverage a little. Others may have a different opinion on that, but, as I'm about to explain, I wonder how relevant this is anyway.

Before I go on to explain myself though, I shall try to answer the second query re. where I would expect to be if I smoothed out my average returns. Well this of course is all hypothetical but I shall break down my expectations. My staking of each service in terms of £/point is such that using previous staking levels as a guide, each service should have wagered on their selections about £12k per annum. Thus over the year, the total amount staked is 15 services x £12k = £180k. My target roi is between 5% and 10%. Taking the middle ground of 7.5%, on £180k turnover that would be a gambling profit of £13,500, or an average of £1,125/month, which (assuming a 30 day month) equals a daily profit of £37.50. (Doesn't sound a great return for so much work when you put it like that, does it?). Of course, I hope for an roi of 10% and maybe a little more - certainly the track record of each service would suggest that 12-13% shouldn't be out of the question, but I don't want to be greedy - and if that level can be reached, then great. The way I look at it, that £13,500 (and let's not forget that we have to deduct fees) is the equivalent of an addition to my salary of about £23k at the tax band I'm in. Put like that, the returns are a little more palatable.

So where would I have been yesterday if the returns had been averaged out? 6 days x £37.50 = £225 up, instead of £640 down.

Now that I've essentially answered the questions (I hope), some further comments. Curly's question does, if you allow it, lead to some deep philosophical thinking on the different approaches to gambling. The issue of banks and leveraging for example, can lead you in all sorts of different directions.

I believe there are two types of folk that try to run a portfolio of tipsters. There are what might be termed the stats men, or those that mathematically do everything by the (maths)book, working out expected returns and likely sizes of drawdown linked to probability, etc. That's not me. I fit more into the second category - those that look more at the human angle. It's the psychology of gambling and how to handle it, and how those that run the services handle it, that is important to me. This different approach is probably due to the fact that maths/stats/probabiities do not come easily to me. I understand why a bank needs to be of a certain size. I know that diversification reduces risk although the amount being staked is greater as a result. I know that the effects of variance must be accepted. But I do not try to deduce likely depths of drawdowns or length of recovery periods. I concentrate on living in the here and now and making sure I can cope with that.

I try and keep things very simple. I go from day to day, trying to be as methodical as I can be and I work hard at not being psychologically bullied by the ups and downs. I believe my banks are adequate and trust them more than I trust myself.

What do I mean by this? Well, I believe 100% that my bank assigned to each service is of the requisite size. I use the SBC guidance and the tried and trusted rules that dictate the appropriate size of a bank. However, say you have a total financial bank of £20k that covers all your services. And then say you embark on a lengthy and unprecedented losing run, so that real inroads are made into that £20k. How many would keep going, staking as they are, until every penny of that £20k has gone? I know I wouldn't. And that's what I mean about not trusting myself. I know, deep down, that if I lost a certain amount of the funds I have put aside for gambling, I would quit. Or if not quit, reduce staking or drop some services to reduce my outgoings. And hand on heart, how many out there wouldn't do the same?

So really, the size of the accumulated banks becomes a little irrelevant, doesn't it? It's not the maths that a gambler has to battle with. It's the game itself and what it does to the mind. And that's where I concentrate my efforts. On doing the best I can to remain detached, aloof, and ready for the next day. Yes, financial planning plays a huge part in helping gamblers do that. The larger your banks, the warmer the comfort blanket, but let's not kid ourselves that we would happily continue to lose as we got down below say 50%, or 40%, or 30% of our original bank size.

Ultimately, this is why I couldn't gamble for a living. I know there is a line marking losses, that I just couldn't bear to fall below. The only way I could do it, I think, would be over the years to plough back profits until I had no leverage. If I could run services to make a good profit over a number of years, and have banks 150% of the recommended size for each service, and not have any level of leverage at all, then I might consider going full time. I tell you something though - just at this moment in time, that prospect seems a heck of a long way away.

Right. I've fallen into the trap of rambling tonight. Let's bring this to a close.

Today's Betting

*Sigh*.

4PA. One account bet - Mijhaar in the 2.25 at Newmarket. One basic system bet - Fulgur at 9/1. Basic system bet declined. Look up the result if you haven't guessed it already (or backed it yourself of course!).

On The Nose. The very poor start to July continues - four bets, no returns.

Northern Monkey. Found Malthouse to place to small stakes (Newmarket - 22/1) but two losers.

ProBandit. Got the winner of the first race at Newmarket (Masked Marvel - 5/2) but then a loser to minimise profit.

The Market Examiner. I've just watched the 9.05. Nice one, despite being Rule 4 effected! (Baldemar - Epsom - 7/1). Two other losers, but all of a sudden I'm in a forgiving frame of mind!

So another losing day (eight on the bounce now). Things have got to change soon, haven't they?

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -1.562pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +0.25pts.
4PA: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, +3.95pts.

Thursday 7th July: Staked £240, -£74.85.
Running total: -£719.97 (roi -50.66%).

Tedium.

2011-07-06T12:47:00.000-07:00

You know back in the second part of May/early part of June, I remember going on a run of about ten consecutive days where the portfolio made money. Some days it was a small amount only, on others the profits were significant. After about six days or so, I remember thinking each morning about how much I was going to make that day. I knew the run couldn't and wouldn't last, but the fact is that I expected to be recording gains at the end of the day.

Today was the seventh consecutive losing day. I am now waking up, expecting to lose money. All I wonder is how much.

This isn't meant to be doomy and gloomy though. I've been through these runs before, and they do get easier to deal with. I know it is when, not if, things will turn around. I've seen all this before and I guess it's when experience really does count. Mentally I'm fine - just bored. Bored with losing. I want to win just to break the monotony, if you know what I mean? Perhaps tomorrow.

Today's Betting

A blank today from three selections from The Market Examiner.

ProBandit played in three races and found the winner of one (Red Courtier - Kempton - 9/2) to produce a profit on the day.

A very small loss from Winning Racing Tips, whose selection finished third (Thirsty Bear - Bath - 4/1).

Finally Chasemaster suffered from non-runners in their selected race this evening. Two of the blighters meant a 17 horse race paying each way on the top four was reduced to 15 runners, each way paying first three home. You guessed it Ours was edged out for third on the run in.

Wednesday 6th July: Staked £190, -£38.40.
Running total: -£645.12 (roi -54.62%).

Drip, drip, drip...

Up and running with TME

2011-07-05T13:28:00.000-07:00

Really quick one tonight, as I'm in late.

Today's Betting

Well, despite Andy's assertion in the Comments under yesterday's post, today wasn't the day when the rot was stopped.

Like yesterday, PJA NH managed to find one to place (Snake Charmer - Uttoxeter - 14/1) but the other lost and with more staked on the loser, it was a small loss on the day.

I had my first winner from The Market Examiner which was most welcome (King Kurt - Pontefract - 6/1) but their second selection was unsuccessful. Great to get off the mark though, as it is when you join any service.

The sole On The Nose selection was backed in from 12s to 5s at the off and ran well to finish second without ever really looking like winning (Fontley - Pontefract - 12/1).

Blank days though for Northern Monkey, ProBandit, and Winning Racing Tips who each had one selection.

PJA NH: Staked 1.25pts, -0.37pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.7pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Tuesday 5th July: Staked £182, -£42.88.
Running total: -£606.72 (roi -61.22%).

It would be nice - and I don't think I'm asking for too much - if perhaps just one of the racing services could edge into profit for July. You know. For me. I really would be very grateful. How about it, chaps?

Football #2

2011-07-04T12:29:00.000-07:00

Thought I'd outline the other footie services I've lined up for next season. I've already posted thoughts on Skeeve, Football Elite and Football Investor/Strike Zone. Now the others...

4. The Football Analyst. Having seen first hand the amount of sheer hard work that has gone into the development of these systems, added to the positive results attained last season, I'm looking forward to implementing consistent staking with my chosen system(s) over the course of the forthcoming season. Had I had a consistent approach last season, I would have made a lot more money from TFA than I did, and what I did make wasn't bad at all. Obviously Graeme is launching commercially for 2011/12. For £75, I suggest it's as good value as can possibly be secured anywhere in the paid for tipster world.

5. The Sportsman. Not strictly speaking a football service per se. In fact forget that. Not even loosely speaking are they a football service per se, as there is also solid involvement in darts and racing too. Footballistically (sic), The Sportsman complements the other services nicely, as bets tend to focus on different markets - Over 2.5 goals, corners, bookings are typical markets played in, which are completely different from anything the other services do. I felt that I really only saw this service flourish in the second half of last season. The run up to the New Year was far from disastrous, but no real forward momentum was being attained. It's inevitable that all services go through periods like this I think, and then when it did click, I rather enjoyed the ride. High hopes for next season.

So with On The Oche just added, there's a lot to like about the look of the "Sports" section of the portfolio. Roll on the footie season. I just hope Arsenal have eleven players to put out by the time August rolls around. First home game, I might just take my boots.

Today's Betting

The losing run continues. That's five consecutive days now, and only two of the last eleven have seen a "+" sign preceding the day's balance.

Just three services in action. ProBandit was the most successful, finding a winner this evening (Blue Maisey - Windsor - 4/1) but this wasn't enough to avoid an overall half point deficit.

PJA NH started ok, finding one to place (Chapel House - Newton Abbott - 10/1), but the other two finished out of the places.

Finally, The Market Examiner had three which disappointed.

PJA NH: Staked 2.25pts, -1.375pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, -0.5pts.

Monday 4th July: Staked £165, -£99.
Running total: -£563.84 (roi -69.69%).

Odds on a winning day tomorrow?

The losing run continues...

2011-07-03T08:52:00.001-07:00

Title says it all.

Today's Betting

It could all have been so different though, as The Market Examiner's 2 point bet on The Snail was foiled by a neck after a battle between ours and the favourite in the 3.30 at Market Rasen. I'd missed the 20/1 this morning as I was watching my lad play football, but two points at 16s would have been a very nice return. Oh well.

The other two selections were never really in it, and nor was Northern Monkey's sole half point win bet at Ayr, Bowmaker, who didn't really seem to help himself by running first right, then left, and then right again as it gently meandered up the straight.

Brown Panther had landed a nice touch for 4PA at Royal Ascot, but disappointed today in the German Derby. The other 4PA selection in the race, Arrigo, finished out of the frame.

So another very disappointing day in what has been a very disappointing week (-£438.10). I've seen all this before though and I'm not losing any sleep. Just money.

Waiting for a spark to turn it all around again.

4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, -4pts.

Sunday 3rd July: Staked £138, -£138.
Running total: -£464.84, roi -72.18%.

Now, I'm off into the garden to enjoy the 3Bs - barbecue, burger, beer.

Old Friends.

2011-07-02T12:38:00.000-07:00

I'm in the missus' good books. I've lost my voice.

Stupid cold.

Well, the mystery 15th service has been subscribed to today, and I have been allowed to rejoin On The Oche.

Those mistakes I was talking about last night. Well one of them was leaving On The Oche when I did. At the time, it seemed like the right move to make. Performance had been poor for a little while. The number of bets felt like they were drying up and when the SBC dropped OTO from their Hall Of Fame, it was enough for me to decide that I should stop putting my money on Rich's selections.

I kept an eye on them though. In the back of my mind, niggling away at me was the question: could a guy with such an obvious edge in darts betting really just "lose" it in the space of a few months? Now that I know more about the effect that variance can have on short term performance (or even medium term come to that), and how a small sample of bets really is never a solid basis upon which one can draw firm conclusions, I can see that my decision to drop OTO was the wrong one.

In Matt's Football Elite end of season review he produced a small table of figures (relating to the performance of OTO) that really brought home, in very stark terms, just what a wingnut I had been. I've not asked permission to reproduce this table, so I won't copy it in it's entirety, but I will provide the most important figures and hope that Matt doesn't object...

2007 - Bets 90 -- ROI 94.3%
2008 - Bets 113 -- ROI 24.7%
2009 - Bets 97 -- ROI 25.1%
2010 - Bets 96 -- ROI -13.6%
2011 - Bets 46 -- ROI 69.7%

You see what I mean.

Now, rather like with The Market Examiner, I have (re)joined at a time of what is quite possibly considerable overperfomance, and it would come as no surprise if a period of correction was imminent. But I would chalenge anyone who looked at those figures and denied that here was a service with a very clear edge in it's chosen area of expertise. And that being so, in the long term, I really should be alright.

Today's Betting

My first half of June was truly excellent and then performance really slipped to leave it being a slightly profitable but generally mediocre month. The way July has started, I'm just hoping that July will be June in reverse...a bad start and then a great second half.

There was one service that did ok today and that was ProBandit who played in just the one race, with just the one horse, and just the one horse won (Millyluvstobouggie - Leicester - 11/4). That came early in the day, and I thought I might possibly be in for a good one. How wrong could I be?

4PA went in with a few selections this morning and whilst three of them simply ran poor races, there was one tip that really should have won. I have never seen anything quite like it before. Ever. Vita Nova was the horse in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock. I managed to get 7/4 this morning, but it was backed in on course to 10/11. As it came to win it's race - and believe me, it was going to win it's race - the jockey's saddle slipped. Nearly exiting stage left, Tom Queally somehow managed to stay on board and with about 30 yards to go, rode it in the style of John Wayne in Rio Grande, spurting forward to finish second. When luck's against you...

Continuing the theme of not getting the rub of the green, one of The Market Examiner's three selections had me pulling out what little of my hair I have left. Slowly away, Aerial Acclaim found itself right at the back of the field. Storming past most in the last couple of furlongs, it was repeatedly prevented from enjoying a clear run, and it eventually finished third.

You always notice the hard luck stories more when you're losing.

A day to forget for On The Nose as none of their four each way selections made the frame, and a small win bet from Northern Monkey was also foiled.

The last three days have really not been much cop at all.

4PA: Staked 5.5pts, -3pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, +1.198pts.

Saturday 2nd July: Staked £394, -£214.84.
Running total: -£326.84 (roi -64.59%).

Right. The traditional methods of finding relief from all symptoms of colds and flu have not worked. There's only one thing for it - kill the bastard thing with alcohol!

Mission Accomplished!/Mission Statement!

2011-07-01T11:56:00.000-07:00

The 1st July represents the first day of The Portfolio Investor's new financial year! It was two years ago today that I started gambling with any sense of purpose, and one year ago where it could be said that I had a portfolio to run.

These last two years have been a mission for me. At times I have thought it a Mission Impossible. The aim was to gradually acquire returns from gambling that could be reinvested until I reached the stage where I had my portfolio at the ideal size of 15 services. The plan was to reach this point and then stop reinvesting my gains, stop adding a bit from my monthly salary every now and then, and simply run the portfolio to make money. And that is now where I'm at.

I had actually reached this point a few weeks ago, but thought it would square things neatly to wait until the start of July to mark the beginning of the next phase. I can now draw a line between the "acquisition" stage, and the optimistically titled "money-making" stage. Phase 2 starts now. I'm now at the point where my profits can be spent as I choose and I can answer once and for all those all important questions...

Is it possible to run a portfolio of gambling services and make a consistent, long-term profit?

Can this be done whilst still maintaining bookmaker accounts that will allow you to place a bet?

Can a proper portfolio be operated successfully by somebody in full time employment?

What returns are realistically achievable?

The next twelve months or so should provide answers to all these questions and more.

Additional Racing Service

I mentioned yesterday that I had in mind an ideal number of racing services. I've already added to that number by one! I simply couldn't resist the lure of The Market Examiner though, and I badly wanted it on my side. Why am I so keen?

Quite simply, from what I have seen and heard of the service, it ticks all the right boxes...

1. The chap who runs it, Sam, has interacted with the blog on a couple of occasions and his desire to provide a service that he could be proud of came through very loudly and very clearly. Furthermore, this transmitted itself in a way that was not self-promoting in any way. It was just obvious that he had a fledgling service that he was immensely proud of, and that he wanted to show to others how good it is;

2. The subscription costs are extremely reasonable, bearing in mind the track record to date;

3. Staking is straightforward and there aren't a huge number of bets each day; and

4. The returns are pretty darned decent.

So, after taking all of this into account, I decided to take the plunge and add that extra racing service to the portfolio. This means that there are eight racing services to seven sports-based tipsters. I had meant it to be the other way around, but The Market Examiner was providing a package with so many plus points. Just by watching from afar, I was essentially being made an offer I couldn't refuse.

Sam might not thank me for saying this, but I do go into the service half expecting to start by experiencing a bit of a rough patch. There's no logical reason for this, just that the 40%+ roi achieved since the start of the season can surely not be maintained. There has to be a period of "correction", doesn't there? Well, if so, I'm prepared for it. Over the long term, I'm 100% confident that the decision to add The Market Examiner will turn out to be the right call to make.

Additional Sports Service

I'll say more about this when I have actually signed up. Contact has been made - just awaiting a response. All will be revealed.

Mistakes

You may well be wondering why it has taken me the best part of two years to get to this point. Mistakes. That's why. Mistakes? Pff! I've made a few...

I challenge anyone to say, with hand on heart, that whilst they were learning the gambling ropes, they didn't fall into any/all of these traps:

- Increasing stakes after a winning spell.
- Decreasing stakes after a losing spell.
- Becoming disillusioned with a service whilst it loses, stop following until it hits a few winners and then start backing again, and then get completely disillusioned when you realise you've missed all the profits and suffered all the losses.
- Joining a service that on reflection you should never have joined.
- Believing the grass is greener elsewhere and chucking a service away to join another only for long term results to show you'd have been better off staying put.
- Paying too much for a service and then realising that at your staking levels, it's going to be hard to make any sort of profit.
- Allowing the negativity of others to affect your own thinking and letting it cloud decision making.

Yep, I've committed all of these gambling sins, and I could probably think of a few more if I set my mind to it. But I feel my two year apprenticeship period has been time spent learning many a useful lesson. If I could pinpoint one principle that I have learnt must be adhered to religiously though, it is the absolute necessity to maintain consistency of approach to every aspect of gambling. That refers to bet placement, staking, service membership, everything.

To that end, I want to make it clear that the portfolio now is exactly how I expect it to be on 30th June, 2012. My minimum expectation of a service is that it "wash it's face", ie. it covers it's fees so money isn't lost over the year. But even if well down, I intend to give it the full twelve months before drawing any hard and fast conclusions. I think that's only fair.

Conclusions

My ambition is to run the portfolio on text-book principles. Believe me, if I have succeeded in this aim and yet I am not making any money, then I shall knock gambling on the head. There will be no excuses for failure. I will just resign myself to the fact that the hope of being able to generate a reasonable second income from following a portfolio of reputable tipsters is a false one. And I shall give up.

The blog

Quite simply, I set out wanting to emulate JP's blog. I had been inspired by it. JP was doing what I wanted to be doing. Sure his stakes were heavier than mine, but nevertheless I could identify with him, with what he was trying to do and I loved reading his blog every night. It made sense of the struggles I was experiencing with my own gambling, of the ups and downs and the way to handle them.

So when JP stopped, it left a hole and after a long while, I thought bugger it, why don't I try to fill it? Thing is though, I knew I couldn't. Not properly. So I tried a different tack. I thought I'd try to make the actual performance of the portfolio of secondary importance to the mechanics behind it. Trouble is, there's only so much material that you can do this with.

Then, only a few days ago, I thought I'd write two posts a week. One detailing performance, the other discussing some topic or other. But what I quickly discovered was that things would crop up that normally I would mention in the blog, but couldn't because I wasn't "planning" on blogging that day. So that idea was shelved.

I'm going to go back to basics. This blog will simply be the blog of a portfolio investor. I hope to post most days. Predominantly, the blog post will be a simple description of the day's results/performance. When something crops up that I feel worth commenting on, then I will. I know this will turn some readers off. So be it. If however, you wish to see an ordinary guy trying to make some money through gambling, whilst doing a full time job and with a family to consider, stay tuned.

Let's see what happens.

Today's Betting

Well, things can only get better, I guess (and hope!). Not the bright new dawn one might hope for. A total of 9 bets and not a return from any of them. Trouble is, the previous day provided 10 bets, with a frighteningly similar level of return!

Three bets from The Market Examiner, two in the same race from ProBandit, and a mix of doubles and a treble from On The Nose - all unsuccessful.

The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

Friday 1st July: Staked £112, -£112.
Running total: -£112 (roi -100%).

Long post tonight. I'm whacked.

Football!

2011-06-30T10:12:00.000-07:00

I have come to realise that June/July is an expensive time of year for us gamblers. At least it is if we're running a portfolio of services that include a number of football tipsters. For it is during this mid-summer period that decisions have to be made as to which footie services to follow over the course of the forthcoming season, and then subs coughed up to the chosen few.

When adding up the total outlay on services, it becomes apparent that a considerable amount of money is invested on subscription fees. This realisation sharpens the mind rather. A mistake made now is one that will prove costly.

So, what are my thoughts re. next season's football services to follow? Well, I thought I'd break this subject down into two posts, one today and the other next week. What I need to do is examine the options one by one and make a considered choice, and I need to make these decisions in the wider context of the direction in which I feel I must steer my overall portfolio...

General thoughts.

I have reached the conclusion recently that my portfolio can hold an optimum number of racing services within it, and that number is six or seven. I have decided that I do not, at this point, want to expand upon this number. This is due entirely to the limits on staking that our old friends the bookmakers are imposing. VC Bet closed an account recently, Corals withdrew their BOG offers and refer the majority of my bets to traders so I would hazard a guess that that account is on borrowed time, Paddy Power restrict some of my bets and are getting worse, Stan James offer me pennies now, and although I've opened pseudo accounts at BetFred and Boylesports, let's face it, neither of them are going to last very long.

The consequence of this is that if I am to expand my betting turnover at all, it is within the field of football and other sports that I will have to do it. There is a much wider choice of bookmaker when backing football teams and so bets can be spread much more thinly between each. The Asian bookmakers which impose either a much higher limit on an account or no limit at all (Pinnacle?) can be utilised. In short, it is easier to get on.

I have already identified one service that I am going to add to my portfolio imminently. More on this shortly. In the meantime, it's become even more important to make the right decisions about the make up of the footballing section of the portfolio.

Services to follow.

1. Skeeve. Skeeve is the service that has been there, done it, and bought the T-shirt. With five seasons of profit-making behind them, this is a service that knows how to handle losing runs, that can self-analyse effectively to maintain and improve performance moving forward, and which brandishes the evidence that some serious hard work goes into making the selections every week in their Friday night email. I only joined for last season, and after an initial period of adjustment and adaptation I soon started to achieve very acceptable odds on the selections by getting the bets on quickly. Not every season will be as successful as 2010/11 I'm sure, but the value of the subscription fee is undoubted, even if the price has gone up a touch this year. In terms of re-subscribing, what is there to think about?

2. Football Elite.

So much has been written about Football Elite's underperformance in 2010/11 that I really have nothing to add to what has already been said. My own opinion is that when playing a season that consists of roughly 100 bets only, it is very easy to have a poor season, as there is a vulnerability to the whims of the dark lord that is Variance. No, what is of far more relevance to me is the long term edge that Matt has displayed, the relatively cheap subscription fees, the consistent logic and methodology behind each bet selection, and the ability to at least equal and frequently better the recommended odds. An 'A Star' service that had a relatively disappointing season. I believe Skeeve was in the same position before the start of last season and I wouldn't bet against a similar big upturn in performance from Matt this. In fact, I hope Matt doesn't mind me saying this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the experience at the turn of this year doesn't make him an even better tipster, although to be honest his level-headedness and honesty came through exceptionally strongly in his own end-of-season review. I was seriously impressed by the way Matt dealt with that losing run - never even a hint that his methodology changed in any way at all. Just focused on the same old proven strategy.

3. Football Investor. The only issue with Football Investor is one that Stewart, the chap who runs it, can do nothing about, and that is the fact that there are often a fair old number of bets to place on a Friday evening and on many Friday evenings in the winter I have a 200 mile trip down to London to negotiate in the interests of following the mighty Gooners. That, however, is my problem, and not his. So I am not going to be a wuz and instead just knuckle down to it without complaint. Results last season demanded that I do, and the added bonus is the high strike rate, short losing run Strike Zone system bets to add to the profit-making. Two seasons of proofed results and a similar pricing structure to Football Elite equals a resubscription for me. I'm also looking forward to the new Strike Zone away bets to see if that is something that appeals too.

So there we have it. Three football services that I will be continuing with this forthcoming season. I'll discuss the other three or four, and take a look at other services that I'm watching closely next week.

In the meantime, I need to shake this terrible bout of Manflu that I'm stoically bearing. I'm trying my very utmost to shake it off. Today's breakfast was a double Lemsip, followed by Beechams with a side dish of Day Nurse for lunch, an evening meal of Vitamin C tablets washed down with liquid Benillyn and for supper, a nice dash or three of Night Nurse. If that lot doesn't do the trick, I'm screwed.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need go blow my nose...

Profit for June?

2011-06-27T13:29:00.000-07:00

It's been beautiful all day. Bright blue skies and hot sun. Until I go out for a run this evening. At 8.00 I set out, at 8.10 it's raining like there's no tomorrow and I'm wearing a white t-shirt that is perhaps a little more figure hugging than is seemly!

I'm going to make these weekly updates pretty short; just a brief overview as I don't want to fall into the trap of blogging figures and little else. I will then do a proper end of month review at the appropriate time that will break down the figures more comprehensively.

So week Tuesday 21st - Monday 27th...

A poor week. End of. It's difficult in midsummer I think, to remember that it's not really the bottom line figure that really indicates how you're doing, more the roi achieved. Without all the football betting at the moment, turnover is considerably lower than in the winter months. With this is mind, this week has seen the roi sink from around the 14% level to 7%, and that's disappointing.

I half think the weather has something to do with it. Is it a coincidence that the second half of May and first half of June saw consistent Good to Firm going and consistent profits made (although I missed a week of this period whilst on holiday)? It seems that since the weather broke halfway through Royal Ascot, winners have been a lot harder to find.

I feel a bit for Wayne at Northern Monkey. The black and white figures show a loss of 4.07pts, five points being dropped on a disastrous Saturday. The week could so easily have been very different though. There have been two very nicely priced winners at 13/1 (after a Rule 4) and one at 14/1 today, but each were essentially backed as savers in their races and carried an almost minimum stake. The strongly fancied horse today lost several lengths leaving the stalls and then made late ground but out of the money, an another close 2nd earlier in the week at 16/1 really sums up the way the cookie is currently crumbling for this service.

ProBandit has essentially stood still, dropping 0.11pts, and Chasemaster has only had two small bets which both lost (-0.5pts).

It's been a really tough week for On The Nose, dropping 7.62pts and failing to find a winner from 12 selections. A service still in profit for the month though.

The only service to turn a profit over the week has been Winning Racing Tips (+0.72pts), thanks to today's winner (Midnight Feast - Windsor - 4/1).

4PA struggled over the weekend, finishing 2.5pts down, and overlooking a basic system bet that won at 40/1 on Saturday!

From what felt like a very strong position for the month, I'm now hoping I can hang in for a profit over the next three days. Here's hoping.

Summertime...and the living is easy.

2011-06-26T12:25:00.000-07:00

I'm chilled, man. As is the dry cider sitting next to me, here in the garden, leaning against a tree (that's me, not the cider you understand), laptop on...well...err...lap. I have a few random thoughts I thought I'd share. Nothing structured. Nothing heavy. Just some musings.

First off, I've had some thoughts about the blog (yes, yes, again!). What might work rather well is if I try to stick up two posts each week. One on a Monday that really is simply a summary of the past week's betting activity, and then one on a Thursday if there's a suitable topic to mull over. That way we get a balance between following a portfolio accurately but avoid the trap of being a mere public record of how well or badly things are going. Of course if Arsenal don't get through their Champions League qualifier, then this will go out of the window as Thursdays will become football night. Heaven forbid this happens though, eh?

Hope everyone has had a decent weekend. The highlight of mine? Well, I have an announcement to make. I've hit the big time. I have the world at my feet. The world is my lobster (or something)! The "Head of Research/Handicapping at Timeform" now follows me on Twitter! Beat that! I imagine he's looking for tips. See how a real pro' goes about things.

Or perhaps not. What seemed to grab his attention was my reply to his tweet on Friday night. "Who are your top 3 ever Glastonbury Headliners?" he threw out to the Twitterati. I imagine he was impressed by my reply. In third place, I told him, it would have to be The Stone Roses, circa 1989. Always takes me back to my Madchester roots, a time when my jeans were baggy and I could hold more than a couple of pints. The soaring electric guitar melody of Waterfall - the very anathema to the electronic, Ecstacy-inspired dross of "dance" music - or the rousing show finale of the instrumental at the end of the truly goose-pimple inducing I Am The Resurrection. Ian, me old China, you certainly were.

Continuing the Mancunian connection, next would have to come Oasis circa 1995, I told the Head of Timesearch Form and Handicapping (by this time he must have been hanging on my every tweet!). Is there a more spinetingling moment in rock music than the introduction of the bass line in Wonderwall? Or a more thrilling adrenalin rush induced by the sneering, leering Liam Gallagher as he belts out, "Is it my imagination, Or have I finally found something worth living for?" as he launches into Cigarettes And Alcohol? More than just a lyric - the signature of a working class revolution originating from the bowels of a Burnage council estate and carried forth on the shoulders of some truly anthemic Noel-inspired tracks.

And now...dazzled by my insight and knowledge, I hit the Headtime of Reform and Handisearching with the ultimate Glastonbury headliner. Picture in your mind's eye if you will...the lights dim, a quiet descends. Hearts beat faster in anticipation of the imminent experience of a lifetime to come. The eyes of thousands of worshippers peer into the gloom, desperate for signs of the Messiah. Time stands still. And then...Boom! In an explosion of noise and cascading light, yes, yes, yes...the raw power hits the audience as Rick Astley breaks into "Never Gonna Give You Up". This my friend, is the moment when the very essence of the Universe is revealed. This is the split second in time that the ending to 2001: A Space Odyssey all makes sense.

No wonder this chap now follows me, huh?

Where was I?

Pleased to see Peter at Chasemaster state in today's email that nothing will change re. selection criteria as his service endures a bit of a poor spell. It's this sort of consistency of approach that I admire in a service. Can't be wine and roses all the time in a marriage, can it? Every relationship has it's rocky moments. Mine came when Helen said she didn't like my speciality tomato and chilli pasta sauce the very first time I ever cooked for her. Six years we'd been together at that point!

Cow.

Anyway, got to go. Cider to drink. Oh, and if anyone feels inspired to follow me on Twitter, @rowanday (see what I did there with the Twitter address? Clever.) is where I'm at. #justsaying.

With friends like these...

2011-06-23T11:19:00.000-07:00

You know that affable looking chap you see on some of the adverts when your watching Channel 4 Racing? You know, the middle-aged, grey haired fella who overhears guys and gals wanting to have a bet at the footie match or at the races. Victor is his name. Really nice bloke. Lays a bet to anyone who asks politely.

Well, he had his PA, an awfully polite young man called Rob, send me an electronically posted letter. The second such letter within the space of just a few months in fact. It really was awfully sweet of Victor to keep in regular contact like that. I've printed it for you to read below...

Dear Mr Day,

We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number 829952 has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf.

The total balance of the Account £467.83 is currently in the process of being paid back to Card ending xxxx and can take 3-6 working days to reflect on your banking statement.

The balance of this Account now stands at zero.

As explained in our Terms and Conditions, a Traders decision is final and will not be over turned.

Please Note: As there are currently various unsettled bets in the account these bets will stand and any potential return will be honoured and sent to you via your debit card ending xxxx.

I hope this resolves your query, but should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Kind Regards

Rob

My query was why it was that all of a sudden I couldn't log into my online account with no prior warning of their being any sort of issue. I can see where Victor is coming from though. That £467.83 is a mighty balance!!! Seriously, which Senior Trader in the world could look at an account with that much in it and NOT decide that I represented a clear and present danger to their business? Especially when you look at my average stake over the time my account was active - £30. Thirty quid! Placed about five or six times a week! Seriously, if I'd kept winning with bets that size, I'd soon be in a position to get Greece out of the economic mire. Oh yes. Forget those austerity measures. Forget paying taxes. I'll sort this mess out courtesy of Victor Chandler! You see, you look at it in this light, and you realise they really had no option. Closing my account really was the only plausible course of action.

Scarcasm placed to one side now, they really do take the biscuit. What must an advert on a Saturday afternoon in the middle of Channel 4 Racing cost them? I don't know the answer to that one, but I'm sure it's a darned sight more than I've ever cost them. It makes me sick when you see representatives of Victor Chandler, BetFred, Boylesports and others on television before the big meetings, boasting about how they have laid such and such a horse to lose thousands. How they've taken that £20k bet on Surefiredwinner in the 3.30 at 16/1. And yet the reality of it all is that show just a hint that you might know what you're doing when it comes to gambling on the nags or some other sport, and you are going to find your account closed with no explanation, no right to appeal, and with a shocking lack of any sense of customer service.

Why oh why are they not challenged? No-one in the Racing Post is ever going to say anything to challenge the honesty of those that provide the publication with so much revenue via advertising costs. But why not that lump McCririck? Why not the outspoken Matt Chapman on ATR? These people set themselves up as being the voice of the common punter, always ready to criticise jockeys for poor rides or clerks of the course giving inaccurate going reports. Why don't they ask the bookmaker's representatives a straight question - why do you so quickly close accounts of those few punters that are making a marginal profit? These people in the media must be aware of the situation - I see people on Twitter complaining bitterly and I'm sure there has been correspondence to the trade newspaper and television channels outlining the lies, misleading adverts and other falsehoods peddled by various bookmaking firms.

What we need is a revolution. A voice and figurehead that we can rally behind. Someone who can really be the Champion of the Punter.

I won't hold my breath.

Recent Performance

The last three days have seen a loss of a shade over £100. The roi on the month now stands at 14.61%.

Really very little to report. The only profitable service over the last three days has been Northern Monkey (+0.594pts), thanks to a nice winner yesterday (Miami Gator - Carlisle - 13/1 after a R4 deduction). Unfortunately the stake on this was small.

The others have shown small losses; Winning Racing Tips (-0.191pts), Chasemaster (-0.25pts), On The Nose (-2.624pts) and despite finding two winners, ProBandit (-0.125pts), one being tipped on Tuesday (Golden Waters - Brighton - 2/1) and the other today (Doc Hay - Hamilton - 5/4).

Pretty boring, really, especially after the excitement of Royal Ascot last week.

Speak soon.

Chasing the big one.

2011-06-20T10:25:00.000-07:00

I must say, I'm quite pleased that Royal Ascot is over. Don't get me wrong, the spectacle is great (and I'm referring to the racing action here, not all the fashion bollocks) and I do thoroughly enjoy watching the sport. I spent Saturday afternoon round at a mate's with a beer, a Racing Post, and the racing on - heaven!

No. The reason I'm relieved it's over is that like the other big racing festivals, the tipsters are understandably geared up to the big meeting, and it is not unusual to be backing two, three, four, maybe even five or more different horses in the same race. And bearing in mind this multiplicity tends to occur most frequently in the big handicaps, the potential for everything to go wrong is high.

I'll give you an example of what I'm talking about. After Thursday, I was on somewhat of a high. 4PA had had a stormer and I'd made just short of £450 on the day. And then on Friday, in the time it took to run the 4.25, I'd given nearly half of it back.

I had £75 on Green Destiny as a 4PA tip, plus another £45 as this was ProBandit's main selection for the race - Green Destiny ran a stinker...-£120.

As a saver, 4PA also had Waydown South win only at 16/1. Waydown South finished 3rd at 20/1 - a great run, but not good enough to save another £25 from going down the drain.

Meanwhile, Northern Monkey had selected Lost In The Moment at 8/1, win only. Only a small bet (£7.50), but another £15 was added - win only - by it being ProBandit's second selection in the race. Naturally, Lost In The Moment finished 2nd. Another great run...a further £22.50 down the swanny.

Mind you, ProBandit hadn't left it there, covering another base with Spanish Duke. Unfortunately this nag finished plumb last. -£15.

Of course, I haven't yet mentioned On The Nose. Circumvent was the each way pick at a tasty 25/1. Nowhere. -£30.

So, one race, seven tips. Amongst them was the horse that finished 2nd at 8/1 and the horse that finished third at 20/1. And yet, somehow, I had done £212.50.

Now I understand that a couple of hundred quid isn't even a minor stake for the big hitters out there. But to me, it's a dent, and was particularly galling after the previous day's success. What to do about it? Nothing. It's just a part of the game that has to be lived with if using a portfolio of tipsters. And you do get the odd big wins in these sort of races which means that over time, income exceeds outgoings. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it though, does it?

Recent Performance

Things hadn't gone that well over the last three days. Not disastrously, just a little uninspired. And then tonight, Winning Racing Tips came up with what in scientific terms is known as a 'stonker'! The month is currently running at an overall roi of 18%. Let's hope that can be maintained.

4PA has been the biggest loser after a disappointing Saturday produced a loss of 2.78 points. Perspective necessary though, as over the whole of Royal Ascot last week, they achieved an roi a shade below 30% (5.085 points) - good figures by anyone's standards.

Northern Monkey (-0.974 points) and Chasemaster (-0.25 points) have been quiet. Northern Monkey had tipped Waffle each way for the Wokingham on Saturday at 25/1, and the beast finished a neck second and with another 15 yards to run would have got up. Fine lines and all that.

ProBandit have also been quiet but found a winner today (Gracie's Games - Chepstow - 4/1) although that just gave a shade of profit (+0.19 points) when the two losers in a previous race had been accounted for. They had no bets at all over the weekend.

On The Nose had a good Saturday (+2.95pts) after giving a horse that finished in the frame in the aforementioned Wokingham (Gramercy - Ascot - 22/1) and also a winner in Ireland (Celendine - Down Royal - 6/1). No bets Sunday or today.

And finally Winning Racing Tips, which after dropping just ove half a point on Sunday, today came up with a lovely winner (Stage Attraction - Chepstow - 5/1 & 9/2). It wasn't so much the price that made it such a good bet, more the identification of real value and a subsequent relatively big stake advised. Great stuff!

So overall for the three days, a profit of a couple of quid over £200. Keeps things ticking over nicely.

Record keeping's what you need. If you want to be an all-star gamb-l-er, yeah!

2011-06-17T13:28:00.000-07:00

Sadly, the title doesn't relate to groundbreaking profits being hit over the course of Royal Ascot. More of how that has been going down below.

No. The title is a reference to a comment left by Matthew after the last post...

I am a fellow portfolio investor with an interest in computer software design. The thing I find most difficult about portfolio investing is the large amount of time that it takes to accurately record and analyse results....obv very important. I was just wondering if you think there is a need for specific software to make this easier and quicker?

Mmm. Good question. I'm not sure if I find keeping records up to speed the most difficult aspect of running a portfolio, I must admit. In fact, when things are going well I find myself smiling as I bring the figures up to date. Not so keen on it when losing, mind.

Being serious though, record keeping is obviously a vital part of "investment" gambling. In fact I would go as far as to say that it is impossible to turn a profit in the long term without keeping accurate details on what is happening. And Matthew is right. Maintaining those records can be extremely time consuming.

So. Do I think there is a need for bespoke software to help ease the burden of this task? I think the answer to that question depends on what you aim to get from the figures. Purely on a personal level, no I don't need software. I'll explain why not.

My approach to gambling is, as we know, to hire the services of the experts. My skill, if we can call it that, is to select the right experts to follow and to methodically place the bets advised. It is to ensure I get the recommended odds as often as possible, to not miss any bets, to ensure my staking is correct, to make certain my bank sizes are sufficient, and to not allow the inevitable bad times to put me off and in the face of psychological adversity, to stay on the path of righteousness (Praise the Lord!). Easier said than done. What I don't ask of myself is to detect, from the stats, where an extra edge might be attained. Or what tinkering I can do to squeeze a little more profit out of all the advice I am given by the services I follow. No. I see that as part of what I am paying for when I pay my subs.

Now please don't get me wrong. I am not saying that conducting regular analysis of bets and performance is not the right thing to do. Far from it and in fact, if I thought that any of the people that run any of the services I use didn't do this on a regular basis, I would drop them quicker than Manual Almunia can drop a cross. This after all, was one of the reasons behind my decision a year or so ago to drop Punter Profits NH from my portfolio as it became apparent that a full review of system performance had not been carried out for too long a period of time.

I am also a big admirer of the work that Kodagira carries out when analysing the services he uses, and of Mat Hare (The Secret Diary blog) when he breaks down the performance of his income generators. I am fascinated by analysis they each do into their own systems and services. Graeme Dand of The Footaball Analyst dazzles me with the analytical research he has put into the development of his football systems and indeed, of his racing picks when he was running The Form Analyst. But the thing is, you see, I don't have their sort of brain. My brain just doesn't function in that way, but I am good at following orders. If I had some guts, I'd have made a great soldier! And I have to play to my strengths, so I place myself in the hands of the tipsters and pay heed to their instructions.

That is why all I need is a running total of how things are going with my portfolio - on an individual tipster basis and as a collective. And I don't need software to help me do that. If Graeme is reading this, I imagine he will have his head in his hands whilst cursing me under his breath and writing me off as a hopeless case. Some time ago he very kindly produced an Excel spreadsheet for recording my bets (which I use), but I don't utilise it as much as I could/should, for the reasons I explained above. (Sorry, Graeme.)

Having said all that, for anyone who is serious about developing their own methods or who would like to drill down further into the stats of the services they follow to see if they can eke out a higher roi, then yes, I'm sure specific software is a basic necessity.

I hope this answers the question, Matthew. By the way, if you'd like to share more in terms of how you utilise software and the benefits it can bring, please do leave another comment. I'd be more than happy posting it up here. All I've given here is my own personal viewpoint. I'm certain there are many portfolio gamblers who would really benefit from some decent software.

Recent performance

Well it's still a decent month so far; currently running at an roi of 17.5% so I mustn't complain. The last three days have been a little too up-and-down for my liking though. Wednesday showed a loss of £108, Thursday a profit of £445, and today a loss of £323!

Five of the six racing services have actually produced a loss over the last three days, although ProBandit (-0.487pts), Winning Racing Tips (-0.4pts) and Chasemaster (-0.25pts - I gave up doing the lays at the beginning of the month as it just doesn't fit with my psyche - sorry, Peter!) losses have been negligible.

Northern Monkey (-5.5pts) has struggled a little but is still running at a very nice 27% roi for the month overall, and On The Nose (-2.625pts) had a lovely Ascot winner on Wednesday (Strong Suit - 11/1) but has found it difficult since.

It has been the profits 4PA pulled in yesterday that has kept it all afloat. They really produced the goods on Thursday tipping Slumber each way (3rd at 15/1), Brigantin each way (3rd at 20/1), and Brown Panther each way (Won at 7/1).

All in all, a three day profit of £12.70. Better than losing, I guess.

Right, I'm off.

Back with a...with a... Well, back anyway.

2011-06-14T13:13:00.000-07:00

Here again. Out of the blue.

I think I owe a few people an explanation. I have been absent without leave and I'm kinda thinking that I should have posted something a little sooner. Apologies.

I have taken a break from the blog (no kidding!) just to take stock of things. Try and work out in what direction the blog should go. As I mentioned previously, I was acutely worried about the blog becoming a mere description of profit and loss and by doing so, would become boring to read and boring to write. I had realised that a mistake I had made when starting The Portfolio Investor was assuming that there would be an endless series of topics to write about. Of course, there are not.

My other concern was that the blog was becoming a little "preachy", if there is such a word. I didn't and don't want to give the impression that I think that the way I do things is the "correct" way to go about gambling on a serious or semi-serious basis. We all have opinions as to which is the best way to go about doing something. I didn't want to be seen to be trying to impose my ways and methods. Possibly I'm being a little oversensitive here. Actually, I know I'm being a bit of a wet lettuce with regard this. Well, I'm determined if I am to be a lettuce, I shall be an Iceberg, strong and crispy, a true King of the lettuce world. Not a Garden Lettuce with limp, sorry excuse for leaves. Oh no. Iceberg - that's me.

Enough lettuce talk.

I've had a few ideas now. Some I will try my best to bring to fruition, others may fall by the wayside. At the risk of sounding unnecessarily mysterious, I don't want to go into detail at this point. And these things are likely to take months as opposed to days to bring about, so nothing revelatory just yet. In the meantime, I will return to blogging. Not every day, though. I have started to play tennis again at a local club after years of not playing. I'm determined that as I reach my fourtieth year, I shall make an effort to retain some modicum of fitness. This means that often my evenings are full and whereas before I would put myself under real pressure to get the blog done, I'm not going to do that any more. Sometimes there may be only one post a week. At other times I may get up a head of steam and rattle off a few posts over consecutive nights. It really depends on what is happening. I'm not going to force subjects to write about any more, rather wait for something to happen that perhaps merits comment. An example would have been the recent announcement of the SBC taking over the running of Chasemaster. I've had my say on the SBC forum so I imagine most people are aware of my thoughts on the matter, ie. no concerns at all from the Chasemaster perspective but one or two reservations from the SBC angle. Credit to the SBC to allow the posing of some serious questions on there by the way.

I'll also avoid relaying the daily/weekly performance of each individual service. I'll try to give enough detail that readers can pick up on how services are performing and I'll continue to do monthly reviews and break the figures down at that point.

For what it's worth, May finished with a profit that was a smidgeon over £1,200. June is going alright so far with a profit of £700 at an roi of 25% (in other words, it's going far too well for it to last too much longer!). The stars of the month so far have been Northern Monkey (who had a nice winner today, as it happens...Ginger Ted - 8/1 - Thirsk) and On The Nose (which also had a winner today...Power - 5/1 - Ascot).

Right, that's it for now. Good to be back.:)

2011-05-21T09:54:00.000-07:00

Some quick thoughts on today's action...

A blank day for 4PA, dropping three points. Neither of the selections ran any sort of race. What was irksome is that one of the basic system bets, Sole Power, won at an early priced 12/1. Adding to the irk factor was Roderic O'Connor winning the Irish Guineas. This had been the service's each way advice at a fancy price for the English version before it finished almost last.

It's been a pretty flat period since the start of the year for 4PA. Today has not been the first time either that a basic system bet has been overlooked and subsequent profit missed. This isn't a criticism of 4PA. I understand judgement calls need to be made and it is inevitable that sometimes these prove to be wrong. But I also know that Kodagira was talking about following the basic system bets and I do think it is worth considering, albeit with a separate bank.
Staked 3pt, -3pts (-£150).

Reading the rationale behind Northern Monkey's selections today, I must admit I wasn't too optimistic. We were warned that there was a possibility that one of the five selections was using today's race as a "sighter", another needed to "raise his game", and a third had been "drawn wide" at Chester. My pessimism was proven to be unfounded though as Wayne produced the goods, finding a nice winner at York in Masamah (12/1) and also picking Nave each way at Goodwood (2nd at 12/1). A healthy points profit which puts Northern Monkey's month back into positive territory.
Staked 5.5pts, +4.7pts (+£94).

I thought that we were on to a winner with ProBandit's one tip today. Having backed Wooden King each way at 9/2 this morning, to see it go off at an SP of 2/1 fav was a little surprising. However it finished second and the service made a tiny loss on the day.
Staked 0.75pts, -0.037pts (-£1.50).

Like Northern Monkey, it was a busy day for On The Nose. And like Northern Monkey, it managed to find a nice winner, Our Jonathan at 6/1 (Chester), and another to place - Sutton Veny at 9s. So, like Northern Monkey, a good day.
Staked 3.5pts, +3.235pts (+£64.70).

Finally with the racing, Winning Racing Tips. I have to say, I was completely taken aback by the selection of Overdose, particularly as it was win only. In over two years of being with WRT, I can't ever remember backing a horse win only. They also had two in the 7.40 at Newbury, both of which placed. The horse that finished third (Choose The Moment) was adjudged to have dead heated for third. Looked like it pipped it to me.
Staked 1.55pts, -0.75pts (-£45).

Racing - Staked £453, -£37.80.

The only bet on the football was a Strike Zone bet (Montpellier). Got odds of 3.38 which is rather long for Strike Zone. And it lost.
Staked 1pt, -1pt (-£50).

Saturday 20th May: Staked £503, -£87.80.
Month to date: £7,141, +£525.53, roi 7.35%.

Right then. This is likely to be my last post for a while. I'm off on holiday later this week and I'm not going to be even switching my mobile on (not that you can get a reception where I'm going, anyway!) never mind placing a bet.

To be honest, I am going to think long and hard about the blog. I wanted to avoid this becoming a mere profit and loss record; to try and provide something a little different but of course, there are only so many things to write about and whilst at the moment there are areas that haven't been covered, there has to be a big question mark about there being material for the longer term future. I've also started to play tennis and cricket again, which are two sports I loved playing but gave up when I had children. Now they're a little older and playing all sorts of sports themselves, and are quite happy to spend evenings and weekends watching me - or at least coming with me and throwing/hitting/kicking a ball about themselves whilst I'm playing.

Perhaps this blogging is a winter game...

2011-05-20T12:27:00.000-07:00

Short blog - too much to drink.

Today's Action

Like yesterday, PJA NH had just the one bet, but unlike yesterday, this one never threatened to add some cash to the coffers.

ProBandit the only service to perform as one would wish, finding the winner of the one race played in (Collect Art - Bath - 15/8).

Winning Racing Tips have epitomised the month as a whole - a great start promising exciting times, and then a slump. They're finding it difficult to get one to place at the moment. Neither of today's two selections did.

Laying...mmm. Chasemaster gave Farmer Frank each way today (Towcester - 10/1) and that horse came second. Trouble is, we got a later message advising a lay of Home. About two out, it was between the two. Now I don't claim to be a great race-reader, but even to my untrained eye McCoy was sitting motionless on Home whilst the seven pound claimer on ours was all arms and legs - a frog in a blender if you like. The writing was on the wall. Not to worry - a far from disastrous loss for the service which has been superb recently, and these things will happen. It just kinda sums things up at the moment, though.

Fingers crossed for a decent weekend.

PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, +0.906pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.875pts, -0.437pts.
Total financial loss on racing of £73.76.

Friday 20th May: Staked £195, -£73.76.
Week to date: Staked £1,081, -£325.41.
Month to date: Staked £6,638, +£613.33, roi 9.23%.

Right. I'm going to take some paracetamol and a huge glass of water. I'm gonna look that hangover right in the eye, and laugh. Oh yes. Pre-emptive strike they call it. Wish me luck.

2011-05-19T10:59:00.000-07:00

A few years ago I looked at investing in property. The first thing I had to do was acquire one. Easier said than done at the right price. So I researched what is known as the BMV market, Below Market Value. This means sourcing and then purchasing property at a much reduced rate - you're looking at 20% or more below the price that the property could reasonably be expected to fetch if sold the traditional way through an estate agent. There are many ways of finding such properties and many companies that purport to help in such a search. Personally I wanted to do it myself but I needed to learn what to do.

In addition to many companies offering to help find a BMV property itself, there are many companies that offer to teach people the methods to find such properties themselves. A lot of them would provide this training in return for what could only be described as pretty hefty fees. Don't worry, they'd say, the fee is a mere investment that will be repaid many times over by the very first BMV property you source. They were all very convincing, I must say. But then when I joined property forums and got talking to experienced property investors, I soon heard tales of people being ripped off by these companies, that a lot of what they taught was freely available from others in the forum and that there were one or two folks out there who did charge a relatively small fee for guidance but who could be recommended and provided value. Importantly, they had a proven track record in the market.

I had come perilously close to really being ripped off, potentially out of thousands of pounds; and had I been, it would simply have been a result of my naivety and a lack of knowledge of the market. I was saved just in time by making contact with folks who were experts in the field and learning from them.

Mmmm...a lot of similarities with the tipping service market, me thinks. It bemuses me when I read questions posted on forums about this new service or that, and do people have any experience of them because the results on the website look great! Why not wait? Why not see how things pan out? Let others put their hard earned at risk discovering whether or not these folks really know what they're doing. I'm not saying we have to wait for an official independent review recommending a service, but in this day and age, how many reputable services don't proof anywhere? There are proofing sites, forums, the SBC, and our own knowledge of what to look for in a new service. There is no need to rush in. It's hard enough to get right even now (Shaolin!), but at least let's get the odds in our favour.

Today's Action

Another poor day today and after a good first part of the month, things are just wobbling a little.

Starting with the good news. The one PJA NH selection today came in first (Royal Max - Wetherby - 9/2-4/1). Generous Stanley James allowed me a whole £3.50 each way at 9/2, so had to take 4/1 elsewhere.

A very poor day for Northern Monkey with all of their three tips finishing out of the frame.

Thought Chasemaster was on to a good thing when we got on their one selection at 20/1 this morning, to see it go off at an SP of 7s. No joy, though.

On The Nose only had one today too, and similarly was on a long priced horse that finished unplaced.

Not a good day for ProBandit either. Managed to get one each way bet to place but the other two tips gave no return.

Winning Racing Tips turned a small profit when their one bet finished 2nd (Sunday Bess - Haydock - 13/2). I thought for a moment it was going to beat the long odds on shot and win the race but ours ran here, there, and everywhere when under pressure in the final furlong. Wasn't to be.

PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, +2.305pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -1.05pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, +0.191pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £104.40.

Thursday 19th May: Staked £275, -£104.40.
Week to date: Staked £886, -£251.65.
Month to date: Staked £6,443, +£687.09, roi 10.66%.

Crap!

2011-05-18T11:45:00.000-07:00

Very quick results post tonight. For some reason my internet connection keeps coming and going. Back tomorrow (hopefully!).

Today's Action

Racing: Northern Monkey, ProBandit, Winning Racing Tips - all had selections, none gave a return. Oh dear.

And more "Oh dear" with PJA, who did manage to find one to place (Only Hope - Worcester - 9/2), but it was amongst four others that didn't.

PJA: Staked 3.75pts, -3.218pts
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.125pts, -1.125pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.8pts.
Total financial loss on racing of £177.36.

And following the racing, Sportyy with one tip, one loser too.

Sportyy: Staked £14, -£14.
Total loss on sports of £14.

Wednesday 18th May: Staked £202, -£191.36.
Week to date: Staked £611, -£146.65.
Month to date: Staked £6,168, +£791.49, roi 12.83%.

A day best forgotten. Let's move on.

Who's afraid of the big, bad market?

2011-05-17T10:27:00.000-07:00

I have read in many places the importance of establishing your own methods that provide your "edge" if you want to be a successful punter in the long term. I don't have a personal opinion on this yet. I can't agree or disagree, but I do have some questions about this assertion, the answers to which would lead to me making my mind up. I do have a vested interest of course, as at this moment in my life - like many, I suspect - I simply do not have sufficient time to conduct the requisite research and therefore must rely on others to discover an edge that I can, as a subscriber to their service, exploit for my own benefit.

The fear that goes with following an edge developed by others though, is that over time the edge will disappear for some reason, or at the very least diminish significantly. If the tipster doesn't adapt, this would leave us in a rather perilous position. I've read this theory in goodness how many different places, and yet never seen an explanation as to why the edge should vanish. Yes, people confidently assert that a continually evolving market in some way 'adjusts', as if that explains everything. To me, it explains nothing. I can see that the efficiency of certain strategies, such as backing the hole in one occurring in a golf tournament can be closed off - as the bookmakers over time become aware of the fact that the odds they offer on an event do not accurately reflect the chance of that event happening. But a horse racing analyst who spots well handicapped horses, or who has developed a methodology that over time has shown an edge? Or a football tipster who examines the stats and identifies patterns or who analyses as much information as they can about team news and any other factor that may materially effect a result?

Let me use a working example or two. Let's take two racing services at random from my current portfolio, Chasemaster and Northern Monkey. How will the 'market' evolve in such a way that the edge apparently exploited by these two services be eroded? I'm open to suggestion here, by the way. I'm just saying that I just can't see how it would happen. Both services have their own methodologies, presumably developed and honed over time. To say that the market will somehow adjust to render redundant the edge these services have developed is to me, a complete nonsense.

Let's take Skeeve as an example of a long-term, successful football betting service. Here is a guy who leaves no stone unturned in his pre-selection analysis. He is concentrating on non-league football and after years of operation, his edge is showing no signs of diminishing. And yet, my impression of the non-league betting scene is that more recently, more bookmakers are becoming more heavily involved. BlueSquare even sponsor the Conference, for heavens sake! I get the impression that the enemy are paying more attention now than ever before on the non-league markets, and you could understand if Skeeve's edge was reducing as the odds compilers become more knowledgeable of the market he plays in. But no. This is not what is happening.

I appreciate that Skeeve analyses his own performance and identifies his strengths and weaknesses, and makes alterations to his strategy accordingly. By doing so, I can see that he is staying one step ahead of the game, or "market" if you will. But the market adjusting to the methods of individual tipsters? I'm not convinced.

Today's Action

A really busy day for PJA NH, which for some reason took me a bit by surprise. It wasn't looking too good for them either as none of the first six selections came in first - although two placed (Seren Rouge - Southwell - 9/2 and Restart - Southwell - 14/1) - but then the last horse absolutely bolted in (Speedy Directa - Towcester - 10/1). Pleased that it did too, because there hasn't been a great deal of joy derived elsewhere...

Northern Monkey's one tip didn't place, and the same was true of Winning Racing Tips.

ProBandit did find a winner (Rocker - Brighton - 9/4 (affected by a Rule 4)) and a profit, despite the two selections in a later race failing to provide any return.

PJA NH: Staked 4.75pts, +2.662pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.6pts, -0.6pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +0.515pts.
Total financial profit on racing of £17.88.

One selection from The Sportsman tonight, in the corners market in the City game. Never really looked like coming in, unfortunately.

The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, -0.15pts.
Total financial loss on football of £60.

Tuesday 17th May: Staked £271, -£42.12
Week to date: Staked £409, +£44.71
Month to date: Staked £5,966, +£982.85, roi 16.47%.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Laying

2011-05-16T11:38:00.000-07:00

As I've previously mentioned, laying is not an area I have involved myself in up to now, and I decided that it was an area worth exploring only after reading the continually excellent Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler blog. Up until this point, my idea of having a diversified portfolio was to have a breadth of backing services covering different sports, or at least providing different angles/methods within the same sport. Taking the logic of the SDPG blog though, I can see why getting involved in laying can potentially provide a portfolio with real balance. The problem of course, is finding laying services or systems that can provide a long term edge. The impression I have gained in the past from SBC monitored laying services is that plenty start well but then fade as time passes.

And so we come to the Dave Renham inspired Racing Trends. I have been following their lays for the past week or so now, and I thought I'd post a few initial impressions up here. Perhaps those with more experience of laying than I can contribute their thoughts in the 'Comments' section? Like the local church, contributions welcome. :)

The first thing I'd say is that the high strike rate nature of laying appeals, and therefore if it is possible to find services with an edge, I can see myself welcoming them into the portfolio. Suffice to say, I'm going into this feeling fairly positive.

My figures so far are: 33 lays, 23 successful (69.69% strike rate), roi -3.26%.

What is immediately obvious is that I haven't made any real returns as yet, but then nor have I lost anything significant, and I understand that the nature of laying is such that realistically roi is likely to be considerably lower than that of a successful backing service (with sufficient churn though, this shouldn't present a problem). Of course it is far too early to be judging roi levels after just a week of following.

I have had my eyes opened to the possibility of putting in a lot of work to secure positive returns, for just one or two bad results to obliterate the results of the good work that has gone before. One day last week, one horse laid won it's race at an SP of 20/1 and a Betfair SP of 40. Bang - one shot and all returns made from laying the win had been demolished. I don't know how long the disappeared profits had taken to accrue, but I can't imagine it was a mere couple of weeks or so. Had I been working on a fixed stake return/lay the win strategy, I would have been devastated and would undoubtedly have seriously questioned whether or not I would want to carry on. I can imagine that the answer to that question could well have been negative.

Racing Trends did react to this setback. They suggested various strategies and encouraged subscribers to suggest strategies themselves. There was no hiding from what was obviously a horrible result. Certainly it reinforced my own belief in the strategy that I had settled upon, that of laying the place but to a fixed liability, ie. there is a maximum amount I can lose on any specific lay, my return on successful lays being determined by the price. Looking at the graph of historical results on the Racing Trends site using this strategy, results are very palatable.

My last observation at this stage, is that the Racing Trends service itself is professionally run, transparent, and conscientious, but I am not exploiting anywhere near it's full potential. They are not a mere laying service. Subscribers receive comprehensive stats that cover the forthcoming day's racing which can be used to establish profitable angles. I simply don't have the time to do this, but I wish I did, and for anyone in the fortunate position of being able to do so and who is stats-minded, this information could be a gold mine.

So to sum up - very impressed with the service itself so far; too early to judge the lay results using the strategy I've adopted. Let's see what happens.

Today's Action

Two bets from PJA NH today, and one winner (No Woman No Cry - Newton Abbott - 13/2) and the same for Chasemaster (Dominican Monk - Newton Abbott - 10/1). Two very nice winners and Chasemaster's consistency continues to become more and more consistent. That's a nice sort of consistency to have. None of this inconsistent consistency, the likes of which a certain North London football club have specialised in recently (grrr!).

Northern Monkey's sole bet couldn't quite reach the frame but the On The Nose tip did (Cockney Trucker - Newton Abbott - 9/1) although returns were effected by that nasty Rule 4.

PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, +2.825pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.242pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.918pts.
Total financial profit on racing of £114.83.

A relatively small tennis bet from the soon-to-be-paid-for Sportyy which on this occasion was wide of the mark.

Sportyy: Staked £28, -£28.
Total financial loss on tennis of £28.

Monday 16th May; Staked £138, +£86.83.
Week to date: Staked £138, +£86.83.
Month to date: Staked £5,695, +£1,024.97, roi 17.99%.

Back tomorrow.

2011-05-15T08:53:00.000-07:00

Today's Action

Two unsuccessful selections from PJA NH, the same with On The Nose.

ProBandit's only tip came second to effectively return all stakes.

The only racing service to register any profit though was Chasemaster, who found a winner amongst three (That'll Do - Stratford - 9/4).

PJA NH: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.75pts, N/A.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, +0.187pts.
Total financial loss on racing of £50.02.

Strike Zone's only bet a loser, Football Investor's a winner (Wigan).

Finally, a very well thought out double from Sportyy, which included a draw between Valencia and Levante.

Strike Zone: 1pt, -1pt.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, +1.16pts.
Sportyy: Staked £21, +£71.75.
Total profit on football of £39.15.

Sunday 15th May: Staked £231, -£10.87.
Week: Staked £2,303, -£51.22.
Month to date: Staked £5,557, +£938.14, roi 16.88%.

All that running around, and for what...

2011-05-14T11:38:00.001-07:00

Couple of things to sort out.

Firstly the figures for the last couple of days: Thursday +£202.85, highlighted by a superb 8/1 winner from Northern Monkey; and Friday -£177.43, highlighted by there being no highlights, only lowlights. Very low lights.

Racing Trends had no lays yesterday and a few today. I'm going to post a few thoughts on Monday about how I've found them so far, and my general impressions of laying from my first ever week of doing them. I don't think adding a daily tally is adding much to the blog at this stage. A few lays each day really has little significance when the stakes are so low and it is not yet a strategy that is a full part of the portfolio. So, as I say, some thoughts on Monday, and then every Monday after that. Anticipation of that each week should have you springing out of bed each Monday morning. No?

It has been a tricky day today, in terms of getting the bets on. My two children were each performing at the Alderley Edge Festival, "a celebration" of the written word, prose and verse. At least that's what the brochure said. Daft planning if you ask me. There we are, in a village ten miles south of Manchester, listening to six-eight year olds doing their thing whilst United are in need of a point to win the title and City are playing in the Cup final! It was surprisingly well attended, and I had to give it to the kids for standing in front of forty or so adults staring at them as they recited their chosen verse. My lad was actually first up and when he'd finished, his proud parents led the applause. I thought a bit of intimidation might help precipitate a favourable outcome with the judges, and the next seven year old kid up looked a little startled as he approached the stage to repeated chants of "Who are ya?". Of course when he'd finished he was met with a fine, "You're s**t, ahhhhh". On reflection, if I had my time over again I might not be quite so aggressive, but they've got to learn life's tough, these kids. And I don't know what the other parents were grumbling about. PC gone mad with some of them, let me tell you. It's what this country's missing, a bit of competitive spirit.

And was my lad grateful? No. Kept muttering under his breath something about me being an embarrassment. Hasn't talked to me all day and only turned his cold shoulder when after watching some wildlife program on the telly and an advert that was on straight after it, he asked me if we could adopt a leopard. What the hell would we do with a leopard, I asked? No, I told him. We live near a main road. It wouldn't be fair.

Anyway, I digress. Not been easy getting all the bets on, but managed somehow.

Today's Action

PJA NH dropped a point as none of their three selections was a winner. They did find one to place (Dorabelle - Bangor - 12/1).

For the second time in three days, Northern Monkey was the star of the show, finding a very nice winner (Le Toreador - Thirsk - 14/1) amongst their three tips. I wasn't convinced it had got up when I saw the race, but the camera never lies you know.

Still heavy going for On The Nose at present. They did find one to place from their three selections (Tactician - Newmarket - 7/1).

Understated solidity from ProBandit - just as I like it. Three selections, one winner (Extraterrestrial - Thirsk - 5/2) and one placed (Collect Art - Doncaster - 4/1) amongst them.

Nothing gained and nothing lost for Chasemaster who had one small pick (What Of It - Bangor - 4/1) which finished second so stakes returned.

Not so good for 4PA and Winning Racing Tips - they each had one bet and they each had one loser.

PJA NH: Staked 2pts, -1pt.
Northern Monkey: Staked 3pts, +6.75pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -1.125pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2.375pts, +0.775pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, N/A.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.6pts, -0.6pts.
Total financial loss on racing of £12.47.

So another season is near it's end. Man United's point was enough to land Football Elite's antepost pick but I'm not going to tally up the football anteposts until next week when we will know if RVP provides a return in the top scorer market.

Two for Football Investor today with one (West Brom) a winner. And a winner too from the one Strike Zone bet (AC Milan).

Football Investor: Staked 2pts, +0.83pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 1pt: +0.5pts.
Total financial profit on football of £37.45.

Saturday 14th May: Staked £481, +£24.98.
Week to date: Staked £2,072, -£40.55.
Month to date: Staked £5,326, +£949.01, roi 17.81%.

So all that buggering about getting the bets on, and where did it get me? A measly 25 quid and a touchline ban from next year's festival. Pfft.

Pure Genius!

2011-05-13T10:19:00.000-07:00

There has been a problem with the 'Blogger' site, the result of which was my typing out a post yesterday evening and not being able to actually publish it. Pfff!

To add to my woe, it would appear that the draft of my post hasn't been saved either, and I'll be buggered if I'm going to write it all out again! It's a shame really, because I'm telling you, it was quite brilliant. The sort of post that you would remember years down the line. It would have been an "I remember where I was when I read that post" moment. It would have transformed your betting like nothing else, guaranteed you punting profits every single day. Imagine, no more losing days. Ever. It really was the work of sheer genius. I kid you not.

So, because of the maintenance carried out by the 'Blogger' site, you'll never see it. And now I can't quite remember what it was I put, so it's gone. Forever. Just think what might have been...

In reality, the highlight was the fact that Northern Monkey had a stormer and it was a very nicely profitable day. Trouble is, at time of writing all this crap (5.45 pm, Friday), I seem to be handing it all back.

Hopefully I'll get time to do a 'Results' type post later tonight. If not, see you tomorrow.

Yabba Cabbyl Doo!

2011-05-11T13:44:00.000-07:00

The very first thing that I want to say, is that the "research" that this post will refer to is about as scientific as the chimps in that Tetley's advert, you know, the one that had them all dressed in white coats and working in a lab. It is merely a basis upon which to illustrate a point.

I took a look at the SBC Hall of Fame of 18 months ago and listed the services that have since been removed. They are Double The Odds, Tipping Legends, PH Sports Betting, On The Oche and Punter Profits NH. I then looked at their performance since to see if it could be argued that the services had been dropped too early. This isn't a critique on the SBC by the way. It is just examining further the points we looked at regarding PP NH and On The Oche the other night.

First up, Double The Odds. Looking at the website, results are somewhat out of date, but looking at the Racing Index (www.racingindex.com) proofing site, I was able to look at the results from 1st May 2010 to the end of April just gone. Results are to BetFair SP and amount to 8.21 points profit at an roi of just under 1%.

We'll pass over Tipping Legends as JC took a break for a fair period of time and there seems to be no monthly breakdown of results on their website. I don't know if anyone is aware of any proofing site they use, but I can't find one.

Looking at the Sports Tipsters proofing site (www.sports-tipsters.co.uk), PH Sports Betting has done ok since being removed from the HoF. 66.36 points profit at an roi of 5.72%.

Punter Profits we discussed on Monday, but from the Racing Proofing site (www.racingproofing.com) the figures are 37.94 points profit at an roi of 14.2%.

Finally On The Oche (results taken from their website - www.ontheoche.co.uk): 4.75 points profit. I can't work out the roi as I can't see the staking from the website listed results. Obviously since last October, a profit of 4.75 points isn't going to provide a high roi, but the roi from the beginning of 2011 is nearly 45%, as described in Monday's post.

So what do we learn from all this? Looking at it, not a great deal (!) and the only really relevant question to ask possibly is what was the point of this futile exercise! Well, maybe, but perhaps their is an inkling of something we can take from my far from exhaustive studies.

In what is admittedly an extremely small sample of data, we can see that the services spotlighted have maintained some levels of profitability, albeit at reduced levels. Certainly at a level below that which should be expected of an HoF service. PP NH and On The Oche would appear to have great potential to return to the levels they were at in their heyday, but who is to say that PH Sports and DTO can't have a prosperous period which will significantly boost their shorter term roi so that it resembles something like their historical best?

I would like to do some proper research into this, looking at a broader scope of services and their performance over longer periods of time. I have a thought that keeps pricking my conscience that I can't quite dismiss...that once a service has been identified as being suitable to follow, and we are satisfied that it is honest, ethical, practical to follow and is generally run on professional lines, we really should be sticking with it through sticky periods of longer than a season, or say, nine months for a racing service. I know it sounds strange but perhaps actual performance, unless disastrous, shouldn't necessarily be the most important factor to consider when assessing a service and whether or not to continue following it. I don't know - I don't feel entirely confident in this assertion. I've not even decided whether or not I agree with it, as after all, we're all in this to make money, and the bottom line is ultimately all that matters. But there is one thing that I am now absolutely convinced about, and that is it's probably not a good idea to drop a service that is going through a period of merely standing still; that I would/should rather stick with a flatlining service that I can trust in the belief that they will at some point rediscover their joie de vivre, than drop it and go chasing glory with the service that promises to be the next big thing (yes, I have Shaolin Betting in mind as I type this!). A case of better the devil you know, possibly. In which case, my previous decisions to drop Punter Profits, On The Oche, Sports Investor, CD Systems Pro Bets and probably one or two others I could name if I really thought about it, are beginning to look a little foolish.

My being foolish? Now I really am beginning to make sense! Perhaps.

Today's Action

In stark contrast to yesterday's tranquility, today was fast and furious.

Northern Monkey continued their sticky spell since the start of the month, none of today's three selections reaching the frame to provide a return.

A tiny profit was scrambled by PJA NH which managed a nice winner (Cabbyl Doo - Perth - 9/1) amongst six other selections that lost.

ProBandit was quiet with just a small bet on a longshot at Kempton and no returns here.

A decent day for 4PA but perhaps not quite as planned. A largish bet was placed on Taqleed in the opener at York (also put up by On The Nose and Northern Monkey by the way) which disappointed but the win bet on the 'saver' came in to produce a decent profit (Pekan Star - York - 13/2). Incidentally, I had to scratch my head when three services went in on Taqleed, with all three mentioning it's poor draw. As it happens I don't think it was good enough to win despite the draw, but it must have been a negative factor and this is one scenario that a portfolio punter can really come a cropper. Survived this one.

Another poor day for On The Nose I'm afraid. Like Northern Monkey, no return from three bets.

And then we come to Chasemaster. My first lay from this service today, and it was successful (Arturo Uno - Perth - 3.85), followed up by a nice winner (Cabbyl Doo - Perth - 9/1). A continuation of their fantastic form of the last few weeks. By the way, that Cabbyl Doo may have been impacted by a Rule 4, but it rather saved my bacon today.

Racing Trends had four lays today and all were successful. Back in (marginal) profit with them now. I thought I would probably update figures weekly as opposed to daily as it will probably mean more and have more context on a weekly basis.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.75pts, -2.75pts.
PJA NH: Staked 4.5pts, +0.21pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, +1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1.212pts, +1.317pts.
Total profit on the racing of £27.10.

Unfortunately the one football bet provided by Strike Zone for tonight was a loser.

Strike Zone: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Total financial loss on football of £50.

Wednesday 11th May: Staked £507, -£22.90.
Week to date: Staked £845, -£90.95.
Month to date: Staked £4,099, +£898.61, roi 21.92%.

Three small loss days since the start of the week. Better than three big loss days, eh?

Instantly forgettable.

2011-05-10T12:42:00.001-07:00

An interesting perspective on last night's theme from Matt of Football Elite in the 'Comments' section (see yesterday's post). Reading it and my post again, it has put me in mind to do a very basic exercise relating to the services that once were in the SBC Hall of Fame, but are no longer. If I get the chance I'll post some thoughts up on this tomorrow. If not, I'll do it as soon as I can. I'm curious.

Today's Action

A very, very quiet day today, and not one that will live for very long in the memory.

ProBandit unfortunately gave much of yesterday's profit back, giving two system selections in the one race, neither of which won.

The only other racing service to provide advice today was Chasemaster whose horse came second at 4/1 to return stakes.

ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, level.
Total financial loss on the racing of £50.

Not so good with the Racing Trends lays today - five place lays, three of which unfortunately found the frame. That doesn't quite tell the whole story though, but I'll leave that until the review of how things are going on Saturday.
Running total: 57.14% strike rate, -8.68% roi.

Sportyy had a couple of bets today, one in the tennis which lost, and a bet on the Spanish football tonight (Deportivo) which won.

Sportyy: Staked £90, -£3.05.
Total loss on sports of £3.05.

Tuesday 10th May: Staked £160, -£53.05.
Week to date: Staked £338, -£68.05.
Month to date: Staked £3,592, +£921.51, roi 25.65%.

Things should get a little more interesting from tomorrow, when the big three day York meeting gets underway. Could well see 4PA wading into the action which tends to lead to short term volatility, either in a good or bad way.

OK. Off to watch Revista, a program that shows how good Match of the Day could be.

Phoenix from the flames.

2011-05-09T12:15:00.000-07:00

A couple of months ago, when we were discussing the rationale behind dropping Sports Investor from the list of services followed, someone left a comment that at the time made me raise my eyebrows a little. It was a good point, succinctly made. The poster of the comment was of the opinion that a football service shouldn't be judged on the performance - or non-performance - of just one season, the insinuation being that such a time period isn't sufficient to make a rational and sound assessment. Consequently, if we were to stop following a service that had historically performed well but which had failed to deliver for nine months or so, then we should exercise a little more patience and allow that service time to rediscover it's mojo.

I still feel that the decision to drop Sports Investor from the portfolio was the correct one. Performance levels had slipped over a time period nearer to 18 months than nine and nothing has happened subsequently to produce any regret. But there are a couple of services which I have previously subscribed to which are enjoying something of a renaissance, and are certainly making me begin to rue the day I jettisoned them from the portfolio.

The first of these is On The Oche. Since the start of this year, the official figures state that there have been 27 bets, 16 wins, 26.25 points staked and a profit of 11.57 points at an roi of 44% (you can have a look at the results here: http://ontheoche.co.uk/total.html). I remember Matt, who runs the admin side of the service, pointing out that On The Oche was dropped from the SBC Hall of Fame after performance levels had dropped off significantly over a 12 month period, but that the actual number of bets in that time weren't that many. One might reasonably ask if enough bets were struck in those twelve months or so to allow proper provision for the effects of natural variance. In other words, was the decision to remove On The Oche from the Hall of Fame a little hasty?

To be fair to the SBC, I think the very fact that there were so relatively few bets was a major consideration in withdrawing Hall of Fame status, and of course if there are other, busier services out there producing the goods? Well, you can see why the decision was made. But what of OTO now? It looks like Rich is beginning to display his ability to find an edge which personally speaking, I am sure he has never lost. Here is a high strike rate service, demonstrating again an ability to hit high levels of roi, that via previous SBC monitoring we know to be ethically and professionally run. Makes you think, doesn't it?

The other service in recovery mode that I have noticed recently is Punter Profits NH. After years of producing an roi of 20%+, they suffered a dreadful time of it for over a year. But looking at the Racing Proofing website (http://racingproofing.com) their last six months shows a 27.4 point profit at an roi of 13.77%. This doesn't include April's figures - anybody know how it went for them? But regardless, the ability to make a consistent profit again is being demonstrated. I appreciate that there are other factors related to PP NH that led to a decision to stop following, not least of which was that it became apparent that no real audit of the systems had been or was being carried out, even when things started to go wrong. But, like OTO, we have here a service with a strong long-term performance, which has endured a bad time of it, but looks to be making a recovery.

It will be interesting to monitor from afar just how strong the recoveries of these two services prove to be. If the recovery periods stretch so that they become less a recovery and more like the long term norm, that should cause us all to ask some fairly serious questions of ourselves when it comes to our punting.

I'm not losing sight of the fact that a line has to be drawn somewhere when a service loses over a relatively lengthy period of time. But the ongoing performance of OTO and PP NH is going to make for interesting viewing. I wonder what their attitude is to prodigal sons?

Today's Action

Only racing today.

Neither of the two PJA NH selections was a winner, although one managed a place, which was a half step better than the performance of the two Northern Monkey tips.

A good day for ProBandit today, finding the two winners of both races played in - one NQ bet (Miss Bounty - Brighton - 9/2) and the other a System bet (Piazza San Pietro - Brighton - 9/4). Each winner was dutched, but a nice profit secured nonetheless.

Finally, a small bet on an outsider from Winning Racing Tips produced no return.

PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -0.975pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2.25pts, +1.562pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £15.

Monday 9th May: Staked £178, -£15.
Week to date: Staked £178, -£15.
Month to date: Staked £3,432, +£974.56, roi 28.39%.

There were two Racing Trends lays today, only one of which was successful but at the odds it provided a profit of 25.37% on the day. Full results: Lays (place) 9, Successful 6 (66.66%), roi 17.59%.

Might just be a results post tomorrow. Quite interested in the Spurs/City match.

2011-05-08T12:17:00.000-07:00

Very quiet today. Not factoring in the antepost bets yet, but United beating Chelsea should mean a nice return from Football Elite's pre-season pick. Every cloud, I suppose...

Today's Action

No return at all from PJA's two picks, nor from the two beasts selected by On The Nose (which were backed singly and as a double).

You know, when things go against Chasemaster, which at some point they inevitably will, it will be important to remember periods like the one they are going through at the moment. For the last couple of months or so they have been the epitome of consistency. One good bet today, one good winner (Or Sing About - Worcester - 7/2). It was enough to ensure a profit from betting on the nags this afternoon.

PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +1.093pts.
Total financial profit on the racing of £27.50.

Just two Strike Zone football bets, and two winners (Inter Milan and Genoa). Genoa scored their winner in injury time. When things are going for you...

Strike Zone has been a real star in 2011 so far. I must admit I questioned it's ability to hit a strong (10%+) roi, but it is beginning to answer those questions in a very positive way and show me up as foolish to ask! Stewboss at Football Investor/Strike Zone must be delighted, and deservedly so.

Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, +2.41pts.
Total financial profit on football of £120.50.

Sunday 8th May: Staked £200, +£148.
Week: Staked £2,894, +£941.43.
Month to date: Staked £3,254, +£989.56, roi 30.41%.

There were no Racing Trends lays today.

Five day working week coming up. The first in a while. Great.

Escaped.

2011-05-07T10:37:00.000-07:00

Just a typical weekend round up, tonight. Will be same tomorrow night, too.

Don't know why, but it feels like I escaped a little today. Pretty mediocre day on the horses, but countered by a solid day with the football. Not complaining at all. Just feels like I dodged a bullet today for some reason.

Today's Action

I took a calculated risk with the main 4PA selection today, Horseradish. I split my stake, putting half on at the best available odds of 9/1 with Hills, whilst taking the other half at 7s with Victor Chandler. The better odds being offered by Billy's was offset by the fact that they were only paying each way down to four places, whereas VC covered five. Horseradish came fifth, so my conservatism saved me just shy of 1.5 points. The other selection (win only) was nowhere.

A bad day at the office for On The Nose, none of whose four selections provided any return at all.

PJA NH wasn't able to produce a winner from any of their four selections either, although they did get two to place (Five Star Wilsham - Haydock - 9/1 and Snake Rave - Hexham - 7/1).

A nice winner for Northern Monkey (Rock A Doodle Do - Ascot - 11/2) but rather let down by the other three bets which were all unplaced. A small profit on the day, though.

In stark contrast to last night's tremendous success, tonight's tip from Winning Racing Tips finished well out of the frame.

Another good day for Chasemaster who really are being the model of consistency at present. Just two small bets today, one placed (Snake Rave - Hexham - 6/1) and the other won (Checkerboard - Hexham - 100/30).

4PA: Staked 2.5pts, -1.075pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, -1.337pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 6pts, +0.612pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts,
Chasemaster: Staked 0.375pts, +0.441pts.
Total loss on the racing of £144.91.

And so to the football.

Football Elite got Everton right but Sporting Gijon wrong for a minute loss on the day due to the prices I took.

Strike Zone has continued on the front foot after April's general success, picking two winners from two today (Newcastle and Southampton).

Exactly the same comments can be used for Football Investor too. They managed four correct from nine - Everton, Yeovil (at 3/1), Southampton, and Swindon (at 3.8/1). Excellent stuff.

Managed to get the recommended odds on the Spanish football double (Getafe & Atletic Bilbao) recommended by Sportyy today and that paid off as the bet came in.

And last but by no means least, The Sportsman landed one from two bets today but at the odds a tiny loss was the outcome.

It should be noted that Graeme at The Form Analyst had a good day, with System 8-22 at least. I had decided to stop following until next season when I realised that I wasn't at all clear as to what my strategy would be and I was dithering between larger stakes with Draw No Bet, smaller stakes win only, etc, etc. In the end, with the season's end imminent, I thought better just to stop and wait for the summer to decide exactly how to proceed. Sod's law, eh? Pleased for Graeme though.

Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -0.023pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, +1.677pts.
Football Investor: Staked 9pts, +4.345pts.
Sportyy: Staked £39, +£49.52.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.025pts.
Total financial profit on sports of £186.18.

Saturday 7th May: Staked £1,036, +£41.27.
Week to date: Staked £2,694, +£793.43.
Month to date: Staked £3,054, +£841.56, roi 27.55%.

By the way, a decent start to the Racing Trends lays. Eight out of ten successful for an roi of 9.55% (remember, I'm fixing my liability on each lay so the maximum I can lose on each bet stays the same, my profit on the successful lays will vary dependent on the BFSP odds). I mentioned in a comment to Alan after last night's post that I shan't be including the figures in the portfolio profit and loss figures. My stakes are minimal and I'm using separate money.

Right. A semi-decent bottle of red awaits...

Edit: Hey! Am I psychic or what? Read the last line of yesterday's post, and then look at the winner of the 5.00 at Punchestown today! First winner I've picked in 15 years. Price makes it worth the wait though, no?

Dinosaur!

2011-05-06T12:36:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I talked about what appears to be a sham masquerading as a service. Tonight I will concentrate on a service that provides information collated and delivered by utilising the skills of someone with an impeccable background.

Many of you I'm sure, have heard of or have come across Dave Renham. He is a big mover and shaker behind the Punter Profits service, is a frequent author of articles produced by Smartersig, and is the analytical power behind the Racing Trends service. And it is Racing Trends that is the focus of tonight's blog post.

If you have read any of this week's posts, you will have seen me mention the possibility of introducing some laying into the portfolio. It was Mat Hare at his constantly insightful blog (The Secret Diary of the Professional Gambler) that unwittingly pointed me in this direction. Reading about how his portfolio has been constructed made me realise that in the interests of balance, I really did need to consider introducing a laying element to my own betting.

However, things are rarely that easy, and here is a confession. I am a gambling luddite, a betting dinosaur - I like my traditional back bet. It took me a while to get used to gambling online! Laying to me is like visiting France with basic GCSE level French and trying to converse with the natives in their own tongue. You get by, but only just, and not with a great deal of confidence that you know what you are doing.

This is where Racing Trends come in. I have the opportunity to follow their daily laying advice and will be so doing from tomorrow. Then, each week, I will give you an update on how it's all been going. My initial stakes will be minimal but with a fair wind shall grow over time. Of course if things do, as hoped, go well, then I can be your live guinea pig as it were, and you can look at the service yourselves to see if it is of interest. I can see the advantages of a reliable laying service to anybody's betting provided the service providing the lays can really walk the walk.

I will tell you now that the strategy I adopt will be the one that is easiest for me to follow. Results will be recorded at BetFair SP. I will be laying the place, for a fixed liability. This means that no matter what the odds of the horse to place, the maximum that I can lose is the pre-set liability. You can read more about the various strategies available and see graphs of results by clicking on the 'Racing Trends' link top right, under the "Excellent Reads" banner. Have a look. See how I get on. Draw your own conclusions.

Today's Action

Only racing to get excited about today.

4PA tried a repeat of yesterday's successful strategy, concentrating on the front of the market but in just the two races today. The first pick was successful (Hurricane Fly - Punchestown - 4/6) which was backed on it's own, but it was also doubled up with So Young which finished unplaced.

PJA NH carried on from where it left off yesterday, picking just the one horse which duly obliged (Premier Grands Cru - Aintree - 13/2).

I really felt for Wayne at Northern Monkey. He gave four today, three of which finished second by distances which included a head (at 9/2), and a short head (at 9/2). No damage done on the day, but a serious case of what might have been.

A disappointing day for ProBandit who wasn't able to find a winner from three system bets, and a similar story from On The Nose from two selections.

Saving the best until last, Winning Racing Tips had a superb winner (Creme Anglaise - Ascot - 9/1) tonight. This service has really produced the goods recently after a fairly lengthy flat spell. Have to bear this in mind when looking at what is happening with ProBandit at the moment.

4PA: Staked 2pts, -0.333pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, +3.307pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, -0.362pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, +3.78pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £189.04.

Friday 6th May: Staked £317, +£189.04.
Week to date: Staked £1,658, +£752.16.
Month to date: Staked £2,018, +£800.29, roi 39.65%.

Right. All this talk of dinosaurs, I know your all thinking the same. All together now...Open the door, get on the floor, Everybody walk their dinosaur, BOOM BOOM ACKA LACKA BOOM BOOM...

2011-05-05T14:07:00.000-07:00

My first ever bet on the advice of a tipster was on a horse called Rustle in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. It won. My friend (who I still go to visit on many Saturday afternoons to watch the racing) and I sat in his garden afterwards counting our winnings, about thirty quid each if I remember rightly. Had Rustle not been victorious, I wonder if I would be gambling as I am now. I had drunk from a goblet holding a heady brew - a concoction made up from winning money using "inside information". I had to send part of my winnings off to the guy who had supplied the tip. It was an odds-to service, whereby I would put money on for the tipster and send by return the profit from that part of the bet. Today I would like to think that I might be a little more circumspect but hey, back then I was young and foolish.

That year we were going to make a habit of counting winnings in the garden including when Nashwan won the Derby and we were on antepost at 8s. That's a story for another day though.

Anyway, this service, with it's entirely credible claims of having access to superb inside stable info (ahem!) gave another ten bets, none of which were at odds of greater than 2/1, and none of which won. Perhaps it was natural variance. Perhaps not! But the idea of having exclusive info appealed to this callow teenager who was possibly lacking a little worldy nouse. It was a lesson learned the hard way.

Right, what the hell am I babbling on about?

At the end of January, I subscribed to a football tipping service called Shaolin Betting. They had been the subject of a positive report written by the SBC, had consistently solid if unspectacular results, and boasted a high strike rate. At a time when I was proactively looking for a service to replace the disappointing Sports Investor, they ticked a lot of the right boxes. I paid my 150 euro for 60 picks.

I got off to an ok start. Tips were accompanied by a good write-up and came through punctually. Emails were sent if there was no bet or informing members when they should next expect a tip to arrive. After that initial period, performance wasn't quite so good, but certainly nothing disastrous. Nothing to cause concern at all. But then news reached me that a chap known as Petar (who it is alleged also operates under a number of pseudonyms) had joined Shaolin, albeit in a purely administrative capacity. Yeah, right! If performance wasn't a worry, this was. You see I had come across this Petar chap before, at AH Betting, another once promising service seemingly adversley effected by Petar's machinations.

So, not being quite as foolish as I had been at the time of backing Rustle and then ten losers, I thought it wise to stop following with money, at least temporarily. I would reassess in the summer. Simples.

Or not. There hasn't been an email from Shaolin, heaven forbid an actual tip, for quite some weeks. An email that I sent to them has not been replied to either. I may be more Inspector Clouseau than Sherlock Holmes, but this is striking me as being a little fishy. Things aren't looking good, are they?

What struck me with this episode though, is how difficult it is to find good, reliable and honest services. Even with various proofing bodies now doing their best to deshark the shark invested pool in which we poor punters swim, it is still very easy to be sucked into places we rather wouldn't be. Shaolin, as previously mentioned, had been reported favourably by the SBC and my reading of the report was that here was a potential Hall of Fame member. The other thing I have read recently which in the context of this story makes even more sense is on Kodagira's blog. Kodagira pointed out that for the existence of an edge claimed by a particular service to be particularly trustworthy, more than one year's results were necessary before hard conclusions in which we could have real confidence could be drawn. A fair point in itself, but one that increases in validation if adding to the equation the ethics and honesty of a service.

So what lessons can be learnt?

First, that when choosing a service to follow, there is so much more to the decision making process than headline performance levels. Second lesson to learn is that reputation means a lot, and proof of ethical principles guiding the running of the service is paramount. And thirdly, 'once bitten twice shy' is a useful aphorism to remember. If someone has done the dirty once, don't give them a chance to repeat the trick. To be ripped off by one service may be regarded as a misfortune, but to be ripped off by the same person twice looks like carelessness. Looks like I was careless. Don't you be the same.

Today's Action

One of the better days. 4PA sprung into action, advising win bets on three short favourites in the three big races (Await The Dawn - Chester - Evens, Quevega - Punchestown - 5/6, and Captain Chris - Punchestown - Evens). Not their usual style but all three winning was nice, especially as 4PA also advised members to back the win treble in addition to the single bets.

I have mentioned that there have been recent signs of a return to form for PJA NH and today that impression was supported by the fact that two winners were found (Kylenoe Fairy - Newton Abbott - 14/1 and Life Of A Luso - Newton Abbott - 15/2).

Chasemaster's consistent form continued with another winner (Cullahill - Wincanton - 11/8) but that is really only half the story. They also advised Oranger at Newton Abbott, a horse that I backed at 28/1 but which went off at 15/2. It didn't place but that sort of market move suggests that Chasemaster picked up on something very early, but not only that, they also advised a successful lay in the race. This essentially provided a 'free' bet on the gambled on Oranger, at a fantastic price. That is a clever strategy, and having mentioned this the other day, following the lays has to be a positive move now. Time to bit the bullet, me thinks.

On The Nose also provided a little profit by picking one winner from three (Lexi's Hero - Chester - 4/1).

ProBandit managed a winner (an NQ bet) which more than covered the losses from the two system bets in the same race (Mymumsaysimthebest - Goodwood - 11/2) but a small loss overall on the day as Captain Bertie disappointed in the opener at Chester.

No luck for Northern Monkey's one selection today.

4PA: Staked 5pts, +9.106pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +7pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, +0.437pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +0.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -0.375pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Total profit on the racing of £595.32.

Just one very small bet on a big outsider in today's tennis from Sportyy which proved unsuccessful.

Sportyy: Staked £8, -£8.
Total loss on sports of £8.

Thursday 5th May: Staked £523, +£587.32.
Week to date: Staked £1,341, +£563.12.
Month to date: Staked £1,701, +£611.25, roi 35.93%.

Finally, you have heard me mentioning laying a couple of times recently. Well, tune in tomorrow for some news in this regard. It also represents a development of the blog - a first small step towards growing and developing this place in a way that hopefully will benefit everyone. See you then.

Done and dusted.

2011-05-04T13:07:00.000-07:00

Let's see if we can't tie up April tonight, and then we can move on. There are one or two topics I want to explore properly and sooner rather than later, one revolving around one of the services I subscribed to not so long ago. I covered the services that I had things to say about the night before last anyway, so I can keep it brief with the remainder.

PJA NH: Staked 51.75pts, -4.036pts, roi -7.8% (Staked 237.5pts, -42.689pts, roi -17.97%). Not been a good 2011 so far, obviously. Signs of a return to form though and the record would look a touch better as I missed a 13/2 winner (plus a couple of losers so not a huge discrepancy). The AW and Flat services are going well, I believe. Let's hope the NH follows suit.

Northern Monkey: Staked 28.25pts, +3.558pts, roi 12.59% (Staked 126.25pts, -6.35pts, roi -5.03%). Still not quite reached overall profit with Northern Monkey but I'm sure it's only a matter of time. Good, solid month. Not much more to say.

On The Nose: Staked 46.25pts, -4.441pts, -9.6% (Staked 192.5pts, +42.922pts, roi 22.29%). Nondescript month. Great year to date.

And the football/sports...

Football Elite: Staked 12pts, -1.64pts, roi -13.66% (Staked 60pts, -12.266pts, roi -20.44%). Let's hope the antepost bets are landed to rescue something from a relatively poor season. Still a mainstay for next season.

Strike Zone: Staked 19pts, +4.593pts, roi 24.17% (Staked 100pts, +13.34pts, roi 13.34%). Great month. Considered raising the stakes bearing in mind the very high strike rate, but if I did so I would end up staking considerably more than the other football services and I don't want that imbalance. ROI is beginning to get seriously healthy.

Football Investor: Staked 68pts, +23.019pts, roi 33.85% (Staked 277pts, +22.854pts, roi 8.25%). Brilliant month and that's with me missing out on about five points from a couple of days missed. Had had a concern about getting the bets on on the Friday night next season, but with the sharing of the workload, no longer a problem.

Skeeve: Staked 22pts, -18pts, roi -81.81% (Staked 301pts, +55.847pts, roi 18.55%). Due a poor month. Got one. Easy to forgive. Looking forward to next season, although it will be without the late BSS service as it is being discontinued, I believe.

The Sportsman: Staked 1.15pts, +0.682pts, roi 59.3% (Staked 6.348pts, +2.331pts, roi 36.72%). Coming strong now after a bit of a standstill first half of the season. Nice high strike rate and really enjoying it at present.

The Football Analyst: Staked 14pts, -12.333pts, roi -88.09%. Only one word relevant here..."Draw". Been a nightmare month for Graeme but really, I know luck should even itself out, but it certainly didn't in the space of this month. Definite place in the portfolio next season but will leave Graeme to his research over the summer before deciding on strategy.

Sportyy: Staked £950, -£185.14, roi -19.48%. My biggest fear re. Sportyy was getting anywhere decent odds on the picks. I averaged 95% of the recommended price, which I'm more than happy with.

And that's it. I know these end of month reviews perhaps aren't everybody's cup of tea. If anyone has any strong feelings either for or against, leave a comment. Things can be changed, you know.

Today's Action

Better than yesterday. ProBandit played in two races and found the winner of each (Lily's Angel - Chester - 7/4, York Glory - Southwell - 5/4). Northern Monkey had just the one bet (given yesterday) which was Overturn (11/2), the impressive winner of the Chester Cup. Chasemaster called one from three right (Devil Water - Kelso - 5/1). PJA NH had no winners (but one placed) from two, and On The Nose managed no return from two.

ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, +1.787pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.337pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, +0.406pts.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Total profit on the racing of £110.75.

Sportyy gave two tennis picks today, one of which won for a small profit.

Sportyy: Staked £106, +£12.95.
Total profit on the sports of £12.95.

Wednesday 4th May: Staked £316, +£123.70.
Week to date: Staked £818, -£24.20.
Month to date: Staked £1,178, +£23.93, roi 2.03%.

Each to their own...

2011-05-03T13:52:00.000-07:00

I see The Special One was pontificating again last night in his own inimitable style. It's what happens when people pander to an oversized ego. Sarcasm dripped of the screen as the truth failed to get in the way of a good paragraph. But regardless, the monthly reviews are here to stay...

Today's Action

Not such a good day. 4PA limited themselves to just the one bet, a loser and a point lost. Pro Bandit got one to place but hit two losers. On The Nose found the only winner (Quito de la Rocque - Punchestown - 7/2).

Total loss on the racing of £43.41.

Sportyy had a bad day with two losing bets and the same for The Sportsman.

Total loss on sports of £127.

Tuesday 3rd May: Staked £237, -£170.41.
Week to date: Staked £502, -£147.90.
Month to date: Staked £862, -£99.77, roi -11.57%.

April Review #1

2011-05-02T10:37:00.001-07:00

No review of the month just gone is going to make for happy reading. Thought I'd split the review into four parts. Figures in brackets are year to date figures.

4PA: Staked 32.5pts, -3.481pts, roi -10.71% (Staked 91pts, +2.706pts, roi 2.97%). In the most recent email from the service, they are obviously aware that the standards that were set in 2010 have not yet been matched in 2011. What I like about this chap though is that he is very matter of fact. I don't know if he means to, but when things aren't going particularly well, his emails always convey a total belief that it is only a matter of time before it all clicks into place again and a hugely impressive roi is achieved. I also get the impression from the guy who runs it that an roi around the 10% mark is hardly worth raising oneself from one's bed for and that anything short of 20% is a disappointment. Perhaps I'm reading this wrong, but I kind of like it. It inspires confidence.

Certainly the service is going to make the beginning of May interesting - we have been put on alert for a busy week with the Punchestown festival starting tomorrow and the big Chester meeting from Wednesday of this week. We could get off to a flyer or it could be a disaster. One thing is for sure, it won't be dull over the next few days.

Chasemaster: Staked 14pts, +4.796pts, roi 34.25% (Staked 50pts, +12.484pts, roi 24.96%). A real success story in 2011 so far, Chasemaster is going from strength to strength. Many, many things to like about the service, not least the low subs costs which means that it represents real value for money. There are two areas that I have not been exploiting properly though. First is the laying side of the service which seems to be profitable (I have not been recording lay results so I can't say with 100% certainty). It's a personal thing, but I have never been keen on laying and when the SBC originally reviewed Chasemaster, their recommendation at that time was to follow the 'backs' only, essentially due to a lack of data around the lays. However, when you consider that the review must have been published well over a year ago, there is much more data to hand now and I will be asking Peter if he could provide it. I'm not going to start with the lays this month, but my thoughts are that I would like to start following them in the not too distant future. Generally speaking I would like to introduce some laying to the portfolio, and this would seem to be a good place to start. The second area that I am going to change from this month is with how I stake the service. In previous monthly reviews I have written that I have been aware that I have slightly understaked Chasemaster in relation to some of the other services. I was reluctant to change during the height of the National Hunt season just in case there was a sudden increase in bets which would push me too far the other way, but I think that scenario is unlikely to arise during the summer months. Like Skeeve, I also wanted to resist upping staking levels until I was 100% comfortable with everything, and now I am. Perhaps I should have done so earlier, but you know me, conservative as ever. It's not a large rise, but should be enough to bring Chasemaster into line with the staking on the likes of ProBandit, Winning Racing Tips and 4PA and it is now a really core service of the portfolio.

ProBandit: Staked 27.375pts, -4.695pts, roi -17.15% (Staked 112pts, -4.142pts, roi -3.69%). Obviously a disappointing month for ProBandit in what has been an underwhelming year so far, but I'm still a big fan. I read an interesting article by Mr Gekko of the SBC not so long ago that pointed out that with most services, you spend an awful lot of time below the high water mark. In other words, you often have to spend months not making money from a service before a surge takes you through the high profit mark. I'm sure this is what is happening with ProBandit at the moment and I'm optimistic that we'll soon see some good profits coming in. The service may be running to stand still at the moment, but better that than be moving backwards.

There has been a lot of talk recently too about the worth of the NQ bets and the proposition that backing the System bets only will increase the roi. I'm sure there is a lot of truth in that and if that's the way folks would like to follow the service, then I'm not going to say it is the wrong approach. My own take on it is that I will continue to follow the NQ bets for the reasons Paul has given as to why he supplies them...they provide a less bumpy ride. I guess it boils down to the assertion that I would choose to take a lower roi with a smoother ride than a higher roi with more volatility. Some gambler I am! Seriously though, each to their own and I don't think there is a right or wrong way to do things in this regard.

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 17.6pts, +2.817pts, roi 16% (Staked 65pts, +10.154pts, roi 15.62%). Well, Paul managed to turn April around in the last week to ten days or so with a lovely winning each way double and another winner or two on top. Trouble is I wasn't aware of them at the time as they happened in the period that Helen took over. The last involvement I had, it was looking like it was going to be a pretty poor month for WRT. There is a reason why I regard WRT as being a "core" service - consistency in approach. Good times or bad, it is the same method, week in week out. Never a deviation.

Today's Action

Pretty quiet today. ProBandit found a winner at Warwick (Aggbag - 7/2) and that proved to be the only real success of the day on the horses. WRT had their selection place at 5/1 so stakes returned. Northern Monkey has had a sticky start to the month and only found one to place from four today. On The Nose picked the same horse as one of Northern Monkey's losers as their only bet.

Total loss on the horses of £36.24.

One bet from Sportyy on the tennis today and a nice winner.

Total profit on sports of £58.75.

Monday 2nd May: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Week to date: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Month to date: Staked £625, +£70.64, roi 11.3%.

Finally today, I want to draw attention to a new addition to the blog roll on the right. I read about 'From Ireland' on Dean's 'Playing It Safe' blog last night and when Connor left a comment asking for a link exchange, I was happy to oblige. Always interesting to follow someone or a service from Day 1. I don't know Connor's intentions, whether he'll be posting up his progress on the blog, but I thought it worth a look. If not, you can still follow performance on 'Playing It Safe'.

Probably just a "results" post tomorrow - want to watch that Messi fella play for Barcelona. Got potential, that kid. One day he's going to be a good player, you mark my words. I've an eye for these things.

Reasons to be cheerful.

2011-05-01T12:16:00.000-07:00

Well, back into it all again.

To very quickly bring things up to speed, April ended just shy of £1,300 down which makes the running total for 2011 a loss of £400. Not disastrous by any stretch, but blimey, it has been tough going. Strangely though, I'm going into May feeling very positive. A clawing back of nigh on £600 over the last week has probably contributed more than anything else to that feeling, but there are other reasons for taking the optimistic approach too.

At the top of that list of reasons is that last month was the worst I have ever had by quite some distance (my previous worst was a deficit of just under £500 last July), and yet somehow, by hook or by crook, psychologically I seem to have come out the other end. Looking back, I'm not too sure how, and if it wasn't for my wife placing last week's bets I would have been £1,800 down for April and couldn't say legitimately that I had come out the other end ok. Behind every (not so) great man, and all that.

What other reasons are behind the feeling that things are looking up? Well looking at the figures, it seems that the upturn has been down to a number of services stretching across the portfolio. It hasn't been as a result of one particular service going on an absolutely once-in-a-lifetime run or anything. Winning Racing Tips, Chasemaster, Football Investor, Strike Zone...they have all performed extremely well over the last week or so. But even services that made an overall loss on the month began to claw back some of those losses - ProBandit and PJA NH come to mind. Suddenly, I feel that the whole portfolio has a solid look again.

Finally, there's the new set up at TPI Towers; a sharing of the workload which as I stated earlier in the month should allow time away from it all. It also negates the need to downsize the portfolio, something that I was beginning to feel was necessary for personal reasons but far from desirable on punting grounds.

Of course, it could all go badly wrong again in May. Who knows? If so, we'll just have to absorb the losses, and go again in June. Easier said than done I guess. What I do feel though, is that some valuable lessons have been learnt over the last few weeks. Experiences that will be remembered and drawn upon when things go wrong in the future which let's face it, will happen.

Let's see what May brings.

Weekend's Action

Saturday

A very solid day's punting on the nags. On The Nose staked large on Green's Destiny (Newmarket - 13/2), PJA NH picked King Of Dubai (Uttoxeter - 8/1) and Olympian (Uttoxeter - 9/4), and Northern Monkey weighed in with Justfortheroad (Thirsk - 5/1). ProBandit also had that one, and Chasemaster had two tips and two winners - Overlaw (Uttoxeter - 4/1) and Fortysecond Street (Hexham - 9/1). Obviously there were losers amongst this lot, but overall a nice profit was returned.

And then came the football. Plaudits first...Football Investor rounded off a very good month with four from eight including Macclesfield at 6.25/1 and Eastbourne at 5/1. Eastbourne were 3-0 up in the second half, allowed their opponents to come back to 3-3, before scoring a winner in injury time! Strike Zone also produced a small profit with one of their two selections winning.

Now a last minute winner for Eastbourne was nice. What wasn't so appreciated were two very late equalisers against two of The Football Analyst's three picks which in the space of five minutes, turned a very healthy profit into a wipeout. Graeme really has had no luck at all this month, with so many of the big selections ending in draws. It has been a terrible month for the system I follow, but I know for a fact that TFA will be in my portfolio next season. More on that in the monthly review.

Finally, Football Elite had a loser.

So all in, subtracting the football losses from the racing gains, I ended up £41 up. Could have been so much better.

Sunday

Much quieter day on the gee gees today. 4PA's 1000 Guineas antepost tips both finished unplaced, but they did get a return from Hawkeyethenoo finishing in the frame in one of the handicaps at Newmarket. On The Nose found a very nice winner in Time's Up (Newmarket - 10/1). A blank day for Northern Monkey.

It was the football this afternoon where some real satisfaction was found...Football Investor and Strike Zone both indicated that Arsenal should be backed against Manchester United. In the words of Churchill (the dog, not Winston)...Oh yes!

Month to date: Staked £360, +£48.13, roi 13.36%.

Has 'Match of the Day 2' started yet?

Itching.

2011-04-29T12:57:00.000-07:00

Back in the saddle tomorrow. It promises to be a busy day, a typical Saturday.

I've been itching to get into it all again. As I said yesterday, I had had no idea that the bets were still being followed. It has taught me that it's ok to let go of the reins sometimes. That doesn't come naturally. I say I like to be in control. Others say I'm sphinctorally (?) retentive.

What has surprised me is that when I learnt that we were still betting, I really wasn't that bothered to find out how it had all been going results-wise. I was more interested in how it had all been working mechanically. Had the bets been spread around the bookies? Were BOG bookies utilised when appropriate? Were the better prices being missed significantly more than was usual?

What does this lack of curiosity over performance levels show? Possibly that I have considerable faith in the services and tipsters that I am following. Taking a step away from it all has definitely shown me that when you're putting the bets on day in and day out, it is so, so easy to become absorbed by the here and now, and more and more difficult to see the bigger picture. It's all very simple to continually bash on about how performance must be viewed over the long term, but not so easy perhaps to put that self-preaching into practice. Being away from the action for a few days has made me realise this, and that is why the performance over the last few days is to my mind, less important than knowing that in my absence things have carried on as normal in terms of the actual placing of the bets.

Last week I mentioned in a post that I intend to simplify things moving forward, and I think perhaps that I ought to explain exactly what I mean by this. When things were going badly earlier this month, I found myself wasting a lot of time and nervous energy agonising over whether or not to drop a service for poor performance. I remember I did a similar thing previously with Sports Investor, and even made the cardinal sin of finally deciding to drop it, being lured back into following for a short period, and then dropping it once and for all. What a palaver!

I also think that when things are not going well, there is a very strong temptation to start meddling and tinkering. This is not good. I am convinced that consistency is key when trying to make money from using various services. Of course, minor adjustments need to be made from time to time, perhaps with staking for example, but generally speaking, consistency of approach is king. Knowing this though doesn't diminish the desire to start changing things when results are not going your way.

So I am going to absolve myself of any responsibilities re. deciding when exactly to drop services. I am going to pass that buck onto others; those with more experience than I. I imagine you realise who and what I'm referring to. And no, not the wife. Not on this one.

Back Sunday. Have a great weekend, chaps.

Strange goings on...

2011-04-28T14:04:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd do a very quick post tonight, just to let folks know I've not gone away for good. I also thought I should post, because if this blog is really supposed to be a diary of events as they happen, then things should be kept up to date. And despite my break, things have been happening. To keep up to date. Oh, yes.

After I'd finished watching Lionel Messi rise above a sea of mediocrity and distance himself from the 21 big girls' blouses that happened to be on the same pitch as he last night, I came upstairs, Ovaltine in hand, to settle down with my book. There was a light on in the study (ahem, box room) and the sound of tapping keys. I had thought that Helen had gone to bed, but apparently not. I quietly walked in, peered over her shoulder. With my not being a ninja, she heard me, and quickly moved to shut down whatever was on screen. Well, this was role reversal, I thought!

Anyway, cutting to the chase, I exerted my manly dominance and forced the page back up. And there it was. Shocking! I was truly taken aback! How could she? I could never look at Helen in the same light again. Ever. Yep, my bloody spreadsheet was open. The one logging all the bets. Oh, the deception.

I might have been on a break, but it seems that Helen has not. It would appear that she has exploited the fact that the school she works at is closed this week but the school our children go to has not. While the cat has been away, she has been playing away - with the bookmakers. Perfect opportunity for her to get used to everything, she said. Bearing in mind our arrangement, she said.

Am I blessed, or cursed? I'll leave that to you to decide.

PS. Don't ask me how things have been going - I truly don't know. And her indoors has made me swear that I won't check until directly involved again in a couple of days time. The only thing I could get out of the devious cow was that we haven't lost any more than we had done, but it's still going to be a pretty bad month. Well, that's reassuring!

Breather.

2011-04-22T08:22:00.000-07:00

My wife and I stayed up late last night (over that extra bottle of wine I was telling you about) talking things over in great depth. The consequences of that conversation are going to have fundamental repercussions on my betting, I believe in a very positive way.

This past month has not been an easy one to contend with, in many respects. It has thrown a few things into sharp focus, and as anyone who has read the blog over the last couple of weeks will know, I had drawn the conclusion that a small downsizing of the portfolio was necessary to give me a little more time away from betting and more with family.

Although I could see this adjustment as being necessary, I have never felt comfortable with it. It is a cliche I know, but I see this betting 'operation' (which is a fancy word for it, I think) as a business. Certainly I have always treated it extremely seriously and have been aware of what needs to be done to give the 'business' every possible chance of succeeding. So taking a step backwards didn't sit well, and my wife knew it.

Not long after I started to write this blog, I told readers that on Sundays, Helen would take over the placing of the bets. Designed to give me a bit of a break, she learnt what was necessary very quickly. Are you beginning to see where this is all going now?

If the principle of collective responsibility is good enough for the Cabinet, then it appears that it is soon going to be good enough for this household. A full sharing of betting responsibilities shall be the order of the day. The only thing that won't be split is the writing of the blog. I'm afraid that as far as that is concerned, you're going to have to continue with me.

So what does this mean to the actual portfolio itself? First and foremost, it means that I don't need to downsize. But there were other things that came to light during last night's chat. In a nutshell, Helen believes that I am guilty of overanalysis. That I don't go with the flow enough (something I've admitted to in here in the past) and that the in depth stuff isn't necessarily my strong point. Thing is, I know she's right. What I believe I am good at is following orders. I'd have made a good soldier if not imbued with a built in fear of dying some horrible death on foreign fields, but as far as betting is concerned, I can still play to this strength.

What I propose to do is to simplify everything. To follow orders for a while and like a good legionnaire, not ever question those orders. In other words, I'm going to do what I'm told and go with the flow!

There is a current thread on the SBC forum within which some chap who uses the moniker "Floppyboy", raised a very good point. It was an observation that I had made myself a while ago. It relates to the seemingly everchanging nature of the make up of the Hall of Fame. The thread prompted me to do a bit of digging, to go back over the last two years and essentially re-enact the betting activity over that period of time. I set up my imaginary portfolio in December 2008, including the services that fit my criteria now, ie. relatively cheap! I would add and remove services at the recommendation of the SBC, and see where it took me performance-wise. To be honest, I had feared it wouldn't make for pleasant reading, but I was surprised. Performance was good; put it this way, it made a lot more over the two and a bit years than it lost. I admit that it wasn't a particulary scientific piece of research, as it relied simply on each month's SBC spreadsheet of returns which I believe make use of advised prices, which of course are not always obtainable. But even if I reduced the profit levels by 10-15% (in terms of cash profit, not roi, you understand), it still provided a healthy return. Certainly healthy enough.

I accept entirely that this does not generally mean that results will continue in this vein. For instance, I included the Premium Services that the SBC run and that meant that the good profits generated by the Each Way Value service were included. Of course, that particular service went bump recently and is no more. But such is the way of things when running a portfolio. I think we have to accept transition - services will come and go. We have to deal with that.

The other big consequence of my plans is that there may be one or two different services introduced and therefore the make up of the portfolio changed slightly. I'm not talking about big changes being made, after all the majority of services I follow are already SBC recommended. I also want to continue with The Football Analyst and On The Nose, neither of which are in the HoF (yet!).

Finally, we made some immediate plans last night too. If Alan is reading, he'll be pleased with this! I am going to take the rest of the month off. It will allow me to recharge the batteries. It's Easter weekend, the weather seems set fair, and it is an ideal time just to chill out with the kids. There is very little football action over the weekend - Football Elite and Skeeve have made no picks, there were only four FI tips for the first half of the weekend and no Strike Zone, so it seems a good time to stop for a while. Sure it means writing off April as a very bad month as there will be no chance to recoup those losses, but even so, I'm "only" £755 down on the year (performance wise). No doubt many services will rediscover their zest over the next eight days and I will miss out on that recovery, but the way I see it, it's the cost I'm prepared to pay for a wee holiday.

On the 1st May, I shall be back (or should that now be "we"!?!), refreshed and ready to go. I'm looking forward to it.

(Happy now, Alan?)

Back to normality?

2011-04-21T13:28:00.001-07:00

Damn you, you fine wine, you! With your seductive airs and beguiling charms. One glass has led to another. And another. And another. Silly not to polish off the bottle now...a couple more others later...oh dear! You may have to excuse the odd typo!

Well, things have settled down a little this week (so far). No huge swings, although Tuesday stung a touch, but since Sunday results appeared to have regained some semblance of normality. The odd winner, horses backed each way running into the places. This is more like how it should be. No remarkable gains and still a long way down on the month, but things feel a little less fraught now. Perhaps it is just the effects of the wine. Summary of performance further down...

Last week Andy contributed a post which detailed the approach he takes to "managing" his bookmaker accounts. It was provoked by a thread in the SBC forum started by someone who was a little concerned by the failure of the Pinnacle Sports website, a symptom he recognised from the past suffered by a bookmaker that went bust. The one thing you don't want a bookmaker with whom you have lodged a considerable sum of money to do, is to go out of business. The chances of regaining your funds in such circumstances are negligible. Happily, Pinnacle were soon operating again, but the point remains. As serious gamblers we have to acknowledge the risk, however small, of losing out as something goes bump in the night.

Andy's thoughts (and I know it has been posted before, but as a reminder, especially to those who may have been drinking and forgotten some of the salient points)...

"Tonight (12th April) i saw a thread on the SBC forum where one member has expressed concern about the website outage of Pinnaclesports. He is rightly a little worried, as in the past he experienced a site go bust. I don't think this will be the reason in this particular case, but it is possible.

It brings me to an area of discussion where i hope to provide useful thoughts.

When the banks in the UK were going through the beginning of the rough patch, many people were worried that they could lose their money. I think now the government have guaranteed everyone will have personal savings secured to the sum of £50,000. What about the money we have in bookmakers accounts? How much of our money is guaranteed to be safe?

I don't actually know what would happen to my money in the event of the bookmaker going bust. I haven't looked into it, but there are ways to safeguard ourselves.

Those of you who (like me) may only have smaller banks might not worry so much at one bookmaker going bust, but those with larger banks might.

This is what i do..

At the beginning of each month i work out how much money i may need in the account for betting over the next 2 weeks. For example, if i have account with "Expekt", which i only use for a couple of bets each week, then i will only have a small amount of money in the account to cover the predicted amount of bets. If they lose, it is easy enough to transfer more money into the account.

I let all moneys sit in every bookmaker account until the end of the month. At the end of the month, if the total amount in that account is more than i might need for the next 2 weeks then i will withdraw everything over that amount. That way i can either have it sitting in my moneybookers account, or even better, taking it one step further and withdrawing it from moneybookers into my bank account, where it is guaranteed safety and will accumulate interest.

I hope this of some help to any of you. Also it would be good hear other peoples activities/thoughts on the matter.

Some years ago, I invested in a company that subsequently went bust. I lost my money. It was not a nice feeling. Last year I know of some people who had money lodged with a company that was set up to place bets on their behalf, promising that they could get bets on with bookmakers at decent prices. When following the likes of Equine Investments whose tips rapidly shorten in price, such a service must have held great appeal, particularly to those that were restricted by a lot of the high street bookmakers. When this company went bust, the money entrusted to them by their customers served only to pay the company's creditors which essentially means the tax man first and foremost. Whatever scraps are left after the Inland Revenue have taken what is owed to them are distributed amongst the remaining creditors which includes the people who provided the funds. I know a lot of folks that had entrusted their money to this company lost their investment. It must have stung.

So, in this light, is it sensible to have a lot of money lying in an account with a bookmaker? In the above context, no it isn't. I like Andy's solution to this problem as it seems to maintain a level of working capital whilst reducing the risk of being an unwitting victim to circumstances beyond our control. I shall start to take steps to follow Andy's lead. I suggest everyone else give this matter a little thought too. It could save a lot of heartache in the future, and there's enough of that involved with this game as it is, without adding to it unnecessarily.

Performance since Tuesday 19th April

Tuesday was depressingly familiar - a significant loss posted (-£174.10). Four racing services couldn't find a winner amongst seven tips and Sportyy had a fairly sizeable bet that went down too. An oh so familiar story this month.

A better day yesterday (+£126.20) as ProBandit found a nice 13/2 winner and Winning Racing Tips had a fairly substantial bet on a winner at 5/1. Truth be told, I was actually cursing WRT just ten minutes prior to the winner as a selection staked more heavily than any for a while ran an absolute shocker of a race and I had good reason to be fearful of yet another dreadful day materialising.

Very quiet today but a small profit (+£17.32). Chasemaster found two winners from four selections but at relatively short odds (2/1 and 11/8) and unfortunately one of the losers was carrying a larger stake so overall a small loss. WRT's tip finished third at 8s for a small return. The Sportsman advised a small wager on the 180s line in the Jenkins/van Barneveld Premier League Darts match tonight which was landed easily.

It's going to be quiet tomorrow - no racing! Still, I can do quiet. Especially after a month like this one.

Finally I want to draw your attention to an excellent blog and a truly superb post. The blog is "Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler" and it is written by an SBC member and regular contributor on their forum, a chap called Mat Hare. Mat's posts on the forum have always struck me as insightful and make very relevant points in a very succinct fashion. His most recent post has been written in light of the recent poor performance of many services and the worries expressed by some of those following. I have added a link to the blog under "Excellent Reads" (above right). This certainly is. It covers a lot of the ground we have in here, only Mat does it better. Go take a look.

Right. There's another bottle of wine downstairs. I can hear it calling...

Back tomorrow.

Perspective and context.

2011-04-18T12:39:00.000-07:00

Following on from yesterday's post, there is one thing I want to make clear. The thinning out of the portfolio is very minor and is not being done because of the current losing run. The reasons behind it are simply that I need to free up a bit of time to spend doing something other than betting, recording betting results, thinking about betting, breathing betting, dreaming betting...you get the picture. My belief in the principles of portfolio investment have not changed - that diversification is preferable.

There is a thread currently running on the SBC forum in which many are questioning whether it is possible to make money long term by using the portfolio approach. I would contend that it is possible. It is not easy, but it is possible. When I take a step back and look at my own performance, judging purely on service returns I am just over £700 down for the year. Hardly titanic amounts, particularly when put in the context of the solid £6k of profits made since doing all this properly since the summer of last year.

When you look at the figures in this context, things aren't so bad. I appreciate that subscription fees need to be accounted for, but even after doing so, the figures are far from catastrophic. They certainly feel it because we're slap bang in the midst of a slump. Those demons are whispering in our ears, sowing seeds of doubt, leading us down the path of wondering if this is it, that a lot of the services have lost their edge, all at the same time, and that we are in freefall. They are telling us that we are in an aeroplane spinning out of control, crashing down to earth and soon to be consumed within a fireball of destruction, or something like that. Stupid really, to think like this. When things were all hunkydory in September (a month in which I made in excess of £2k), did I think that this was it, that it was smooth profit making from now on and lasting forever, that there was no downside to this gambling malarkey, no bad patches to endure? Did I bollocks!

Perhaps I'm deluded. Perhaps it is impossible to make decent money by following a portfolio of tipsters. But I don't happen to think that it is. I do think that pressure can lead to making bad decisions though. For example, it would be easy to reduce staking, but now is not the time to do it (in fact it is vital that staking isn't altered - that could potentially have negative ramifications that are felt for a very long time). I would rather take a break completely than start messing with my staking. No, now is the time to decide whether to have faith in the services followed, or not. If not, stop completely. If so, then back them to come good. These are the times that make or break the wannabe professional gambler, because these are the times to have the courage of our convictions and to make the hard call.

Last night, Graeme of The Football Analyst contributed possibly the best post I've read on the SBC forum. It was actually on a different thread, one relating to natural variance, but amongst a lot of other really good stuff, he said...

"I think at the end of the day, no matter how much you try to analyse tipsters and systems and the like, it comes to following the ones you believe in. If you don’t believe in it, you shouldn’t be following it. If you go broke following something you really believe in, I don’t think you can be too hard on yourself...

I think this game is much more than just picking systems which are profitable. If all systems were profitable with a 45 degree P&L graph, running a portfolio would be easy…….. It isn’t like that though!"

I'm not for one moment denying that if things were to continue downwards, then there would come a time when a complete reassessment and overhaul of the strategy would be necessary, and quite possibly a long-term halt drawn to proceedings. I'm not discounting the possibility of this happening. I would be stupid to dismiss the notion out of hand and to do so would be a display of arrogance that would make failure deserved. But what I am saying, is that I'm a fair way from reaching that point yet.

One last thing. Mr Gekko of the SBC - he's doing alright, isn't he? Even if he has the advantage of not having to pay subs costs (and I don't know if he does or doesn't), there is an example of someone who is making his portfolio investing produce dividends. If he can, why not anyone else?

Moving on and talking of excellent posts, Peter of the Chasemaster service left a superb comment after last night's blog post. If you haven't read it, please take the trouble to do so, it really is enlightening. I have a lot of thoughts about the issues Peter draws attention to, and those in itself need a proper blog post to do Peter's points justice. I've also not forgotten Andy's post last week about being aware of the possibility of bookies going bust and taking our money with them, and how he prepares for that eventuality. So much to talk about... but it might not be until Thursday before we make a start.

Performance since Friday 15th April

After all the losses suffered, Friday 15th felt like I'd won the lottery - a profit of £25.70!

Saturday 16th was a disaster, losing another £376.85. There were wipeouts from PJA NH which undid the work of the previous day's good winner, 4PA didn't cover themselves with glory, On The Nose went the same way as PJA and Northern Monkey found a winner but no profits. The football was not really any better with Skeeve having a blow out, Football Elite's one selection a loser, as was The Sportsman's. The day could have been so much worse though, were it not for Chasemaster who found two winners, one at 14/1 and the other at 8/1. Chasemaster has been one of the very few bright sparks in this oh so gloomy month.

Sunday 17th at least saw a profit although not on the horses where four services failed to produce a winner between them. But with Football Elite's tip a winner added to Sportyy's winner, a profit of £124.55 was chalked up overall.

Today was quiet and a small loss of £37.86.

Month to date: Staked £8,652.50, -£1,607.59, roi -18.57%.

Soul searching; and changes to the blog.

2011-04-17T12:40:00.000-07:00

There seems to be something in the air and I think it is the odious stench of a nasty losing run. Reading Kodagira's blog last night, it seems that he has been asking himself similar questions I've been posing myself over the last couple of days. Funnily enough, fundamentally I think we have both decided, completely independently of each other, on very similar courses of action.

Before I start properly tonight, I want to say now that I am worried that this post might at times make me sound as if I am totally self-absorbed. I hope you realise that it isn't supposed to, and I'm not. I'm trying to write how I think and feel so that others in the same boat may relate to it. That way, if readers have their own ideas to add, we may all learn something about how to handle the tough times that this game we're playing (or considering playing) is so adept at throwing at us.

I want to base this post around a comment that Alan made after Thursday's post...

Our obvious advantage that we have over the bookies is that we have the option not to bet when things are proving difficult.
I was interested to read earlier in the month when you stated that you didnt mind losses early in the month as there was time to recover.
I disagree strongly with that opinion as my experience tells me that a start such as we had this month usually continues for the rest of the month and i also feel this is the month that the whole of this year has been building up to.
Huge losses are being built this month completely across the Portfolio spectrum and as i said in the SBC forum (which you disagreed with to a degree) i tend to find when it starts to go wrong, it all goes wrong!!
On a personal front, i stopped betting a couple of weeks ago and am very much on a "watching" basis at the moment. I have a total loss of 1100 quid which would have been considerably more if id continued, Ive dropped FE and Pro Bandit.
im staying faithfull to R Vaughan who is in the middle of an 80 point drawdown ( all be it a watching brief for now) as he had the same bad run last year yet still turned a 400 point profit!
But i definately see this as a new start come May and my only target for this year is to break even
I dont say that your portfolio is doomed but you have to look very closely at the situation and make some decisions.
Your family life should come first and i would suggest that you should give it your full attention and put them first.
There will always be sport to gamble on and new In form Tipsters to make you a profit so when you say that your mind set is that all your bad luck is somehow combined, i feel you should have a break and take stock of your situation and figure out the way forward without the hassle of betting to get in the way.
Its your call mate and whatever yoiu do im sure you will return to profit before the year end.
We enjoy your Blog but is the extra pressure of having your betting ups and downs for public viewing just adding to the pressure.
Put yourself first Rowan

It does feel that the last couple of months have seen various factors combine and mix to create a quite nasty brew. A bit like various fronts and areas of low pressure combining out at sea to create the perfect storm that April has seen reach the shoreline. From the calm, sunny days of the second half of last year, this month in particular has been dominated by days and days of incessant rain. Yep, it's been pissing down with no relent!

So what do we do about it? Alan is absolutely spot on when he says that there are times when we can exercise our choice to stop betting and watch. I don't think it is the wrong move to do so. As Alan has pointed out, by doing just that, he has saved himself from taking on even more losses, and considerable ones at that. Sounds a pretty decent idea from where I'm standing. But sitting and doing nothing is not for me, and I think the reason for it exposes a real weakness in my psyche; I am falling into the gambler's trap of thinking that I don't want to miss out on the recovery, which subconsciously, I'm sure I believe would start the very minute I stopped betting. I rationalise my decision by looking at the yearly results of the services I'm following. At many different points in time, those services will have reversed a downward trend, claw losses back, go into the realms of profit-making, before falling back again to repeat the process. There are peaks and troughs to the performance of any investment, and I wish to miss out on neither; I need to go through the cycle.

Where I think Alan is dead right, is a point that he doesn't explicitly make, but can be seen by reading between the lines. He was making losses, has stopped gambling, and is looking at May at being a "new start". Mentally, he is in a much better place with his betting. And if we agree that so much of this game is achieving the right mentality, then having a positive mindset is everything. Put another way, Alan's approach is absolutely the right move for him, and that is the crux of the issue when handling the bad times. I also get the impression that Alan has seen all this before, and has come out the other side. I for one, ain't going to knock that experience.

I've had a couple of long drives to and from Shropshire over the weekend which gave me the opportunity to come away from the mad routine of getting bets on, recording results, and all that is involved for a while, and do some serious soul searching. I needed to ask myself what fundamentally I was trying to do, and how I was trying to achieve it. I do think that when you get on that betting treadmill, it is very easy to lose perspective. Alan and a couple of other commenters have advised that family should come first, and of course, it should and does. But that prioritisation has happened in times of emergency and acute concern. What about on the day to day basis? Have I been spending too much time in front of the PC that I could have been spending with the kids? Has the difficult first quarter to this year caused me to be short sometimes with Helen and the children when really I should not have been? Does the fretting whilst wondering what the results are affected my mood in an evening, even if I am telling myself that it isn't? Am I checking my Iphone a little too often for race by race results so that I've not given the children quite the 100% attention they deserve when we're in the park, or the woods, or on the bikes? I think that the very need to mention that I have been asking myself these questions tells you the answers. Sadly.

So what to do? Well, the first thing is to deconstruct the portfolio (on paper), try and be objective, and see which services I truly believe in. I also needed to identify those that are putting too much of a burden on my time. By eliminating the services that I have even the slightest doubt over (of which there were honestly none), or which I do believe in but acknowledge that following is too time intensive, then the net result would be a thinning of the portfolio; a reduction in the number of services to follow and a consequent freeing up of "chill out" time. I wrote a post not so long ago on time management and I think in black and white terms, I have done a bloody good job in this regard. By taking a step back though, I can see that it came at a cost. I became so insular, so absorbed in what I was doing, that I lost sight of the end game. My wife, being the person she is, took up a lot of the slack to allow me more time that I felt I needed. She didn't ask me if I wanted her to, she just did it and if I'm honest, I should never have let her.

Which brings me to the blog. Alan asks if the public recording of results was putting too much pressure on me. It's a good question, and again I thought about this long and hard (between Sandbach and Whitchurch, if I remember!). I realised that the result recording wasn't an issue. After all, the services I follow are the ones many will be following, so if I'm doing crap, then so are many others. Anyway, I'm not precious. But, what was putting me under pressure was the obligation I felt to post every night. I put Cassini's "Green All Over" blog on a pedestal and realised that if the longest running blog on trading/gambling didn't post every day, then I shouldn't feel any reservations about following suit. Imitation being the best form of flattery and all that. So that's what I'm going to do from now. I will post when I feel like it (how hard am I? heh!) from now on. I can't ever see it getting beyond three or four days between posts. Often I will do consecutive nights or three on the bounce. But no longer will I be blogging when I'm knackered and all I want to do is drag myself off to bed with my book and a mug of Ovaltine (perhaps not that hard, eh!?!). This will materially affect results recording in the sense that I will no longer outline each winner or the daily performance of each service, but this blog was never about that anyway. After tonight, I will still give the figures on the month so far and make favourable mentions of particularly good tipping (or the opposite, of course). I hope that's ok.

In short, I feel as if I have taken two steps forward since halfway through last year, and now one step back. One lesson I have learnt is that I perhaps got a little carried away on the back of success in 2010. I have taken on too many services too quickly; haven't allowed myself mentally to adjust to following a bigger portfolio. By scaling down a little, I feel that I am building stronger foundations for the future, so that when the time comes to expand again (albeit at a more measured pace), then I will be building a house of brick and not straw.

Alan, the last four words of your comment were words that made me take real stock, and I believe they should every individual who is trying to gamble 'properly'. "Put yourself first". The start of doing just that, is to realise just what and who are the most important things in life. Get that bit right, then everything else is a bonus.

Fever Pitch

2011-04-14T13:57:00.000-07:00

There is a line in the Nick Hornby book, 'Fever Pitch', where the author espouses the theory that his relationship with Arsenal was such that the performance of the team was inextricably linked to the way his life was going at any one time. Hornby questioned whether life was shit because Arsenal was shit, or the other way around.

Substitute 'Arsenal' for 'gambling performance', and that is currently how I feel. I don't want to come across as some melodramatic drama queen, but life is hell-bent on throwing forward a few challenges to overcome at the moment. My wife last week, my Dad this, it would appear. I find myself wondering if these challenges would appear so difficult to conquer if the gambling was going well. Would my wife have had a flare up in her eyes last week if I'd been on a winning run? It is a ridiculous notion to consider, even if only semi-seriously, but it does seem that April is to be a difficult month in every respect, and not just those aspects revolving around the betting.

I wasn't going to do a post tonight. I found out earlier this evening that my Dad had been admitted to hospital with the suspicion that he had suffered a stroke. He lives in Ludlow, I live about 100 miles north near Manchester. I'm extremely close to my Dad and I'm torn apart when my mother tells me that he is quite naturally frightened, confused, and at nearly 80, in awe of an acute realisation as to his own mortality. Obviously, I have to get down there, and will be travelling tomorrow.

So why am I blogging at all? This isn't like last week's brief hiatus when I knew that my wife would be fine after the drugs she was prescribed had a chance to kick in. That was more simply taking a couple of nights off so that I could do what she usually does each evening, thus helping her recuperate more quickly and to make Helen's life that little bit easier. This is more serious; this is the sort of thing that as an adult, you know you are going to have to deal with at some point, but dread nonetheless. But when I started this blog, my intention was to show how an ordinary, working bloke with a young family and a full time job, could make a go of making some decent money out of gambling. It was to demonstrate the emotions encountered, the practicalities to address, and the basics needed to do the job. So now that things are getting a little tricky, should it stop? To my mind, if it did, it would kinda defeat the object.

I hope you don't mind me writing so personally, and I am a little embarassed to do so; as I said before, I questioned whether I should post at all. But as I declared at the very beginning of this blog back in January, the intention was for it to be a full account of running a portfolio, warts and all, through good times and bad.

So the blog will continue, perhaps simply out of bloody-mindedness. But I am going to have to adapt it a little. It is simply going to prove to be impossible to post every evening. Tomorrow night, for instance, I will be driving down to Shropshire and when I get there, I imagine my Mum would be a little upset if my attention was given over to a laptop. What I intend to do is post whenever I can, and give an idea as to when I might be able to post next. The results reporting will have to alter slightly too. I will consider how this might be done, but it will probably mean simply recording each service's performance over the period between posts. Details of individual winners, unless outstanding, may have to be sacrificed.

You know, judging by the last couple of weeks you might not think it, but generally speaking, I have quite a straightforward life...

Today's Action

Frankly today was crap and I don't have the inclination to go into the detail.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, -0.484pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 3pts, -1.577pts.
PJA NH: Staked 4pts, -3.344pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £219.03.

Thursday 14th April: Staked £305, -£219.03.
Week to date: Staked £1,207.50, -£226.69.
Month to date: Staked £6,824.50, -£1,343.13, roi -19.68%.

Right. Next post I'm hoping will be Sunday night but events may overtake me, so possibly Monday.

Thanks for listening.

Is YOUR money safe?

2011-04-13T11:39:00.000-07:00

As promised, a guest contributor tonight. Most people who read the comments section will have seen the thoughts regularly left by Andy, and I must say that his outlook on gambling is admirable. He is obviously someone who gives great thought to his investing, is focused on the long term, and is prepared to be patient with his services.

Andy has raised an issue that I must admit, I hadn't really given any great thought to. Reading what Andy has written, perhaps it's time I did...

Tonight (12th April) i saw a thread on the SBC forum where one member has expressed concern about the website outage of Pinnaclesports. He is rightly a little worried, as in the past he experienced a site go bust. I don't think this will be the reason in this particular case, but it is possible.

It brings me to an area of discussion where i hope to provide useful thoughts.

When the banks in the UK were going through the beginning of the rough patch, many people were worried that they could lose their money. I think now the government have guaranteed everyone will have personal savings secured to the sum of £50,000. What about the money we have in bookmakers accounts? How much of our money is guaranteed to be safe?

I don't actually know what would happen to my money in the event of the bookmaker going bust. I haven't looked into it, but there are ways to safeguard ourselves.

Those of you who (like me) may only have smaller banks might not worry so much at one bookmaker going bust, but those with larger banks might.

This is what i do..

At the beginning of each month i work out how much money i may need in the account for betting over the next 2 weeks. For example, if i have account with "Expekt", which i only use for a couple of bets each week, then i will only have a small amount of money in the account to cover the predicted amount of bets. If they lose, it is easy enough to transfer more money into the account.

I let all moneys sit in every bookmaker account until the end of the month. At the end of the month, if the total amount in that account is more than i might need for the next 2 weeks then i will withdraw everything over that amount. That way i can either have it sitting in my moneybookers account, or even better, taking it one step further and withdrawing it from moneybookers into my bank account, where it is guaranteed safety and will accumulate interest.

I hope this of some help to any of you. Also it would be good hear other peoples activities/thoughts on the matter.

I have my own thoughts on this which I will share tomorrow. In the meantime may I say thankyou to Andy for bringing this subject up and for going through his solution to a problem that could affect us all. Much appreciated.

Today's Action

One of those days, today. Seven services in action and only one, PJA NH, providing any sort of meaningful profit.

PJA's winner (Pickworth - Southwell - 8/1) generated a decent profit as it added to three other selections (from seven) that placed. A few more days like this are needed from this service.

The only other service to produce any sort of return was Northern Monkey whose only selection placed. ProBandit bombed out, the only On The Nose tip finished out of the frame, and Chasemaster managed to get one from two in the frame but not at a price long enough to give much back.

PJA NH: Staked 4.5pts, +2.525pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, +0.188pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, -0.235pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £69.84.

Not much to say about the sports; Sportyy had two tennis picks which failed to win and the one The Football Analyst selection finished as yet another draw.

Sportyy: Staked £91, -£91.
The Football Analyst: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Total loss on sports of £191.

Wednesday 13th April: Staked £446, -£260.84.
Week to date: Staked £902.50, -£7.66.
Month to date: Staked £6,519.50, -£1,124.10, roi -17.24%.

Another very bad day. There have been far too many of them in 2011 so far.