I have come to realise that June/July is an expensive time of year for us gamblers. At least it is if we're running a portfolio of services that include a number of football tipsters. For it is during this mid-summer period that decisions have to be made as to which footie services to follow over the course of the forthcoming season, and then subs coughed up to the chosen few.
When adding up the total outlay on services, it becomes apparent that a considerable amount of money is invested on subscription fees. This realisation sharpens the mind rather. A mistake made now is one that will prove costly.
So, what are my thoughts re. next season's football services to follow? Well, I thought I'd break this subject down into two posts, one today and the other next week. What I need to do is examine the options one by one and make a considered choice, and I need to make these decisions in the wider context of the direction in which I feel I must steer my overall portfolio...
General thoughts.
I have reached the conclusion recently that my portfolio can hold an optimum number of racing services within it, and that number is six or seven. I have decided that I do not, at this point, want to expand upon this number. This is due entirely to the limits on staking that our old friends the bookmakers are imposing. VC Bet closed an account recently, Corals withdrew their BOG offers and refer the majority of my bets to traders so I would hazard a guess that that account is on borrowed time, Paddy Power restrict some of my bets and are getting worse, Stan James offer me pennies now, and although I've opened pseudo accounts at BetFred and Boylesports, let's face it, neither of them are going to last very long.
The consequence of this is that if I am to expand my betting turnover at all, it is within the field of football and other sports that I will have to do it. There is a much wider choice of bookmaker when backing football teams and so bets can be spread much more thinly between each. The Asian bookmakers which impose either a much higher limit on an account or no limit at all (Pinnacle?) can be utilised. In short, it is easier to get on.
I have already identified one service that I am going to add to my portfolio imminently. More on this shortly. In the meantime, it's become even more important to make the right decisions about the make up of the footballing section of the portfolio.
Services to follow.
1. Skeeve. Skeeve is the service that has been there, done it, and bought the T-shirt. With five seasons of profit-making behind them, this is a service that knows how to handle losing runs, that can self-analyse effectively to maintain and improve performance moving forward, and which brandishes the evidence that some serious hard work goes into making the selections every week in their Friday night email. I only joined for last season, and after an initial period of adjustment and adaptation I soon started to achieve very acceptable odds on the selections by getting the bets on quickly. Not every season will be as successful as 2010/11 I'm sure, but the value of the subscription fee is undoubted, even if the price has gone up a touch this year. In terms of re-subscribing, what is there to think about?
2. Football Elite.
So much has been written about Football Elite's underperformance in 2010/11 that I really have nothing to add to what has already been said. My own opinion is that when playing a season that consists of roughly 100 bets only, it is very easy to have a poor season, as there is a vulnerability to the whims of the dark lord that is Variance. No, what is of far more relevance to me is the long term edge that Matt has displayed, the relatively cheap subscription fees, the consistent logic and methodology behind each bet selection, and the ability to at least equal and frequently better the recommended odds. An 'A Star' service that had a relatively disappointing season. I believe Skeeve was in the same position before the start of last season and I wouldn't bet against a similar big upturn in performance from Matt this. In fact, I hope Matt doesn't mind me saying this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the experience at the turn of this year doesn't make him an even better tipster, although to be honest his level-headedness and honesty came through exceptionally strongly in his own end-of-season review. I was seriously impressed by the way Matt dealt with that losing run - never even a hint that his methodology changed in any way at all. Just focused on the same old proven strategy.
3. Football Investor. The only issue with Football Investor is one that Stewart, the chap who runs it, can do nothing about, and that is the fact that there are often a fair old number of bets to place on a Friday evening and on many Friday evenings in the winter I have a 200 mile trip down to London to negotiate in the interests of following the mighty Gooners. That, however, is my problem, and not his. So I am not going to be a wuz and instead just knuckle down to it without complaint. Results last season demanded that I do, and the added bonus is the high strike rate, short losing run Strike Zone system bets to add to the profit-making. Two seasons of proofed results and a similar pricing structure to Football Elite equals a resubscription for me. I'm also looking forward to the new Strike Zone away bets to see if that is something that appeals too.
So there we have it. Three football services that I will be continuing with this forthcoming season. I'll discuss the other three or four, and take a look at other services that I'm watching closely next week.
In the meantime, I need to shake this terrible bout of Manflu that I'm stoically bearing. I'm trying my very utmost to shake it off. Today's breakfast was a double Lemsip, followed by Beechams with a side dish of Day Nurse for lunch, an evening meal of Vitamin C tablets washed down with liquid Benillyn and for supper, a nice dash or three of Night Nurse. If that lot doesn't do the trick, I'm screwed.
Now if you'll excuse me, I need go blow my nose...
Thursday, 30 June 2011
Monday, 27 June 2011
Profit for June?
It's been beautiful all day. Bright blue skies and hot sun. Until I go out for a run this evening. At 8.00 I set out, at 8.10 it's raining like there's no tomorrow and I'm wearing a white t-shirt that is perhaps a little more figure hugging than is seemly!
I'm going to make these weekly updates pretty short; just a brief overview as I don't want to fall into the trap of blogging figures and little else. I will then do a proper end of month review at the appropriate time that will break down the figures more comprehensively.
So week Tuesday 21st - Monday 27th...
A poor week. End of. It's difficult in midsummer I think, to remember that it's not really the bottom line figure that really indicates how you're doing, more the roi achieved. Without all the football betting at the moment, turnover is considerably lower than in the winter months. With this is mind, this week has seen the roi sink from around the 14% level to 7%, and that's disappointing.
I half think the weather has something to do with it. Is it a coincidence that the second half of May and first half of June saw consistent Good to Firm going and consistent profits made (although I missed a week of this period whilst on holiday)? It seems that since the weather broke halfway through Royal Ascot, winners have been a lot harder to find.
I feel a bit for Wayne at Northern Monkey. The black and white figures show a loss of 4.07pts, five points being dropped on a disastrous Saturday. The week could so easily have been very different though. There have been two very nicely priced winners at 13/1 (after a Rule 4) and one at 14/1 today, but each were essentially backed as savers in their races and carried an almost minimum stake. The strongly fancied horse today lost several lengths leaving the stalls and then made late ground but out of the money, an another close 2nd earlier in the week at 16/1 really sums up the way the cookie is currently crumbling for this service.
ProBandit has essentially stood still, dropping 0.11pts, and Chasemaster has only had two small bets which both lost (-0.5pts).
It's been a really tough week for On The Nose, dropping 7.62pts and failing to find a winner from 12 selections. A service still in profit for the month though.
The only service to turn a profit over the week has been Winning Racing Tips (+0.72pts), thanks to today's winner (Midnight Feast - Windsor - 4/1).
4PA struggled over the weekend, finishing 2.5pts down, and overlooking a basic system bet that won at 40/1 on Saturday!
From what felt like a very strong position for the month, I'm now hoping I can hang in for a profit over the next three days. Here's hoping.
I'm going to make these weekly updates pretty short; just a brief overview as I don't want to fall into the trap of blogging figures and little else. I will then do a proper end of month review at the appropriate time that will break down the figures more comprehensively.
So week Tuesday 21st - Monday 27th...
A poor week. End of. It's difficult in midsummer I think, to remember that it's not really the bottom line figure that really indicates how you're doing, more the roi achieved. Without all the football betting at the moment, turnover is considerably lower than in the winter months. With this is mind, this week has seen the roi sink from around the 14% level to 7%, and that's disappointing.
I half think the weather has something to do with it. Is it a coincidence that the second half of May and first half of June saw consistent Good to Firm going and consistent profits made (although I missed a week of this period whilst on holiday)? It seems that since the weather broke halfway through Royal Ascot, winners have been a lot harder to find.
I feel a bit for Wayne at Northern Monkey. The black and white figures show a loss of 4.07pts, five points being dropped on a disastrous Saturday. The week could so easily have been very different though. There have been two very nicely priced winners at 13/1 (after a Rule 4) and one at 14/1 today, but each were essentially backed as savers in their races and carried an almost minimum stake. The strongly fancied horse today lost several lengths leaving the stalls and then made late ground but out of the money, an another close 2nd earlier in the week at 16/1 really sums up the way the cookie is currently crumbling for this service.
ProBandit has essentially stood still, dropping 0.11pts, and Chasemaster has only had two small bets which both lost (-0.5pts).
It's been a really tough week for On The Nose, dropping 7.62pts and failing to find a winner from 12 selections. A service still in profit for the month though.
The only service to turn a profit over the week has been Winning Racing Tips (+0.72pts), thanks to today's winner (Midnight Feast - Windsor - 4/1).
4PA struggled over the weekend, finishing 2.5pts down, and overlooking a basic system bet that won at 40/1 on Saturday!
From what felt like a very strong position for the month, I'm now hoping I can hang in for a profit over the next three days. Here's hoping.
Sunday, 26 June 2011
Summertime...and the living is easy.
I'm chilled, man. As is the dry cider sitting next to me, here in the garden, leaning against a tree (that's me, not the cider you understand), laptop on...well...err...lap. I have a few random thoughts I thought I'd share. Nothing structured. Nothing heavy. Just some musings.
First off, I've had some thoughts about the blog (yes, yes, again!). What might work rather well is if I try to stick up two posts each week. One on a Monday that really is simply a summary of the past week's betting activity, and then one on a Thursday if there's a suitable topic to mull over. That way we get a balance between following a portfolio accurately but avoid the trap of being a mere public record of how well or badly things are going. Of course if Arsenal don't get through their Champions League qualifier, then this will go out of the window as Thursdays will become football night. Heaven forbid this happens though, eh?
Hope everyone has had a decent weekend. The highlight of mine? Well, I have an announcement to make. I've hit the big time. I have the world at my feet. The world is my lobster (or something)! The "Head of Research/Handicapping at Timeform" now follows me on Twitter! Beat that! I imagine he's looking for tips. See how a real pro' goes about things.
Or perhaps not. What seemed to grab his attention was my reply to his tweet on Friday night. "Who are your top 3 ever Glastonbury Headliners?" he threw out to the Twitterati. I imagine he was impressed by my reply. In third place, I told him, it would have to be The Stone Roses, circa 1989. Always takes me back to my Madchester roots, a time when my jeans were baggy and I could hold more than a couple of pints. The soaring electric guitar melody of Waterfall - the very anathema to the electronic, Ecstacy-inspired dross of "dance" music - or the rousing show finale of the instrumental at the end of the truly goose-pimple inducing I Am The Resurrection. Ian, me old China, you certainly were.
Continuing the Mancunian connection, next would have to come Oasis circa 1995, I told the Head of Timesearch Form and Handicapping (by this time he must have been hanging on my every tweet!). Is there a more spinetingling moment in rock music than the introduction of the bass line in Wonderwall? Or a more thrilling adrenalin rush induced by the sneering, leering Liam Gallagher as he belts out, "Is it my imagination, Or have I finally found something worth living for?" as he launches into Cigarettes And Alcohol? More than just a lyric - the signature of a working class revolution originating from the bowels of a Burnage council estate and carried forth on the shoulders of some truly anthemic Noel-inspired tracks.
And now...dazzled by my insight and knowledge, I hit the Headtime of Reform and Handisearching with the ultimate Glastonbury headliner. Picture in your mind's eye if you will...the lights dim, a quiet descends. Hearts beat faster in anticipation of the imminent experience of a lifetime to come. The eyes of thousands of worshippers peer into the gloom, desperate for signs of the Messiah. Time stands still. And then...Boom! In an explosion of noise and cascading light, yes, yes, yes...the raw power hits the audience as Rick Astley breaks into "Never Gonna Give You Up". This my friend, is the moment when the very essence of the Universe is revealed. This is the split second in time that the ending to 2001: A Space Odyssey all makes sense.
No wonder this chap now follows me, huh?
Where was I?
Pleased to see Peter at Chasemaster state in today's email that nothing will change re. selection criteria as his service endures a bit of a poor spell. It's this sort of consistency of approach that I admire in a service. Can't be wine and roses all the time in a marriage, can it? Every relationship has it's rocky moments. Mine came when Helen said she didn't like my speciality tomato and chilli pasta sauce the very first time I ever cooked for her. Six years we'd been together at that point!
Cow.
Anyway, got to go. Cider to drink. Oh, and if anyone feels inspired to follow me on Twitter, @rowanday (see what I did there with the Twitter address? Clever.) is where I'm at. #justsaying.
First off, I've had some thoughts about the blog (yes, yes, again!). What might work rather well is if I try to stick up two posts each week. One on a Monday that really is simply a summary of the past week's betting activity, and then one on a Thursday if there's a suitable topic to mull over. That way we get a balance between following a portfolio accurately but avoid the trap of being a mere public record of how well or badly things are going. Of course if Arsenal don't get through their Champions League qualifier, then this will go out of the window as Thursdays will become football night. Heaven forbid this happens though, eh?
Hope everyone has had a decent weekend. The highlight of mine? Well, I have an announcement to make. I've hit the big time. I have the world at my feet. The world is my lobster (or something)! The "Head of Research/Handicapping at Timeform" now follows me on Twitter! Beat that! I imagine he's looking for tips. See how a real pro' goes about things.
Or perhaps not. What seemed to grab his attention was my reply to his tweet on Friday night. "Who are your top 3 ever Glastonbury Headliners?" he threw out to the Twitterati. I imagine he was impressed by my reply. In third place, I told him, it would have to be The Stone Roses, circa 1989. Always takes me back to my Madchester roots, a time when my jeans were baggy and I could hold more than a couple of pints. The soaring electric guitar melody of Waterfall - the very anathema to the electronic, Ecstacy-inspired dross of "dance" music - or the rousing show finale of the instrumental at the end of the truly goose-pimple inducing I Am The Resurrection. Ian, me old China, you certainly were.
Continuing the Mancunian connection, next would have to come Oasis circa 1995, I told the Head of Timesearch Form and Handicapping (by this time he must have been hanging on my every tweet!). Is there a more spinetingling moment in rock music than the introduction of the bass line in Wonderwall? Or a more thrilling adrenalin rush induced by the sneering, leering Liam Gallagher as he belts out, "Is it my imagination, Or have I finally found something worth living for?" as he launches into Cigarettes And Alcohol? More than just a lyric - the signature of a working class revolution originating from the bowels of a Burnage council estate and carried forth on the shoulders of some truly anthemic Noel-inspired tracks.
And now...dazzled by my insight and knowledge, I hit the Headtime of Reform and Handisearching with the ultimate Glastonbury headliner. Picture in your mind's eye if you will...the lights dim, a quiet descends. Hearts beat faster in anticipation of the imminent experience of a lifetime to come. The eyes of thousands of worshippers peer into the gloom, desperate for signs of the Messiah. Time stands still. And then...Boom! In an explosion of noise and cascading light, yes, yes, yes...the raw power hits the audience as Rick Astley breaks into "Never Gonna Give You Up". This my friend, is the moment when the very essence of the Universe is revealed. This is the split second in time that the ending to 2001: A Space Odyssey all makes sense.
No wonder this chap now follows me, huh?
Where was I?
Pleased to see Peter at Chasemaster state in today's email that nothing will change re. selection criteria as his service endures a bit of a poor spell. It's this sort of consistency of approach that I admire in a service. Can't be wine and roses all the time in a marriage, can it? Every relationship has it's rocky moments. Mine came when Helen said she didn't like my speciality tomato and chilli pasta sauce the very first time I ever cooked for her. Six years we'd been together at that point!
Cow.
Anyway, got to go. Cider to drink. Oh, and if anyone feels inspired to follow me on Twitter, @rowanday (see what I did there with the Twitter address? Clever.) is where I'm at. #justsaying.
Thursday, 23 June 2011
With friends like these...
You know that affable looking chap you see on some of the adverts when your watching Channel 4 Racing? You know, the middle-aged, grey haired fella who overhears guys and gals wanting to have a bet at the footie match or at the races. Victor is his name. Really nice bloke. Lays a bet to anyone who asks politely.
Well, he had his PA, an awfully polite young man called Rob, send me an electronically posted letter. The second such letter within the space of just a few months in fact. It really was awfully sweet of Victor to keep in regular contact like that. I've printed it for you to read below...
Dear Mr Day,
We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number 829952 has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf.
The total balance of the Account £467.83 is currently in the process of being paid back to Card ending xxxx and can take 3-6 working days to reflect on your banking statement.
The balance of this Account now stands at zero.
As explained in our Terms and Conditions, a Traders decision is final and will not be over turned.
Please Note: As there are currently various unsettled bets in the account these bets will stand and any potential return will be honoured and sent to you via your debit card ending xxxx.
I hope this resolves your query, but should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Kind Regards
Rob
My query was why it was that all of a sudden I couldn't log into my online account with no prior warning of their being any sort of issue. I can see where Victor is coming from though. That £467.83 is a mighty balance!!! Seriously, which Senior Trader in the world could look at an account with that much in it and NOT decide that I represented a clear and present danger to their business? Especially when you look at my average stake over the time my account was active - £30. Thirty quid! Placed about five or six times a week! Seriously, if I'd kept winning with bets that size, I'd soon be in a position to get Greece out of the economic mire. Oh yes. Forget those austerity measures. Forget paying taxes. I'll sort this mess out courtesy of Victor Chandler! You see, you look at it in this light, and you realise they really had no option. Closing my account really was the only plausible course of action.
Scarcasm placed to one side now, they really do take the biscuit. What must an advert on a Saturday afternoon in the middle of Channel 4 Racing cost them? I don't know the answer to that one, but I'm sure it's a darned sight more than I've ever cost them. It makes me sick when you see representatives of Victor Chandler, BetFred, Boylesports and others on television before the big meetings, boasting about how they have laid such and such a horse to lose thousands. How they've taken that £20k bet on Surefiredwinner in the 3.30 at 16/1. And yet the reality of it all is that show just a hint that you might know what you're doing when it comes to gambling on the nags or some other sport, and you are going to find your account closed with no explanation, no right to appeal, and with a shocking lack of any sense of customer service.
Why oh why are they not challenged? No-one in the Racing Post is ever going to say anything to challenge the honesty of those that provide the publication with so much revenue via advertising costs. But why not that lump McCririck? Why not the outspoken Matt Chapman on ATR? These people set themselves up as being the voice of the common punter, always ready to criticise jockeys for poor rides or clerks of the course giving inaccurate going reports. Why don't they ask the bookmaker's representatives a straight question - why do you so quickly close accounts of those few punters that are making a marginal profit? These people in the media must be aware of the situation - I see people on Twitter complaining bitterly and I'm sure there has been correspondence to the trade newspaper and television channels outlining the lies, misleading adverts and other falsehoods peddled by various bookmaking firms.
What we need is a revolution. A voice and figurehead that we can rally behind. Someone who can really be the Champion of the Punter.
I won't hold my breath.
Recent Performance
The last three days have seen a loss of a shade over £100. The roi on the month now stands at 14.61%.
Really very little to report. The only profitable service over the last three days has been Northern Monkey (+0.594pts), thanks to a nice winner yesterday (Miami Gator - Carlisle - 13/1 after a R4 deduction). Unfortunately the stake on this was small.
The others have shown small losses; Winning Racing Tips (-0.191pts), Chasemaster (-0.25pts), On The Nose (-2.624pts) and despite finding two winners, ProBandit (-0.125pts), one being tipped on Tuesday (Golden Waters - Brighton - 2/1) and the other today (Doc Hay - Hamilton - 5/4).
Pretty boring, really, especially after the excitement of Royal Ascot last week.
Speak soon.
Well, he had his PA, an awfully polite young man called Rob, send me an electronically posted letter. The second such letter within the space of just a few months in fact. It really was awfully sweet of Victor to keep in regular contact like that. I've printed it for you to read below...
Dear Mr Day,
We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number 829952 has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf.
The total balance of the Account £467.83 is currently in the process of being paid back to Card ending xxxx and can take 3-6 working days to reflect on your banking statement.
The balance of this Account now stands at zero.
As explained in our Terms and Conditions, a Traders decision is final and will not be over turned.
Please Note: As there are currently various unsettled bets in the account these bets will stand and any potential return will be honoured and sent to you via your debit card ending xxxx.
I hope this resolves your query, but should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Kind Regards
Rob
My query was why it was that all of a sudden I couldn't log into my online account with no prior warning of their being any sort of issue. I can see where Victor is coming from though. That £467.83 is a mighty balance!!! Seriously, which Senior Trader in the world could look at an account with that much in it and NOT decide that I represented a clear and present danger to their business? Especially when you look at my average stake over the time my account was active - £30. Thirty quid! Placed about five or six times a week! Seriously, if I'd kept winning with bets that size, I'd soon be in a position to get Greece out of the economic mire. Oh yes. Forget those austerity measures. Forget paying taxes. I'll sort this mess out courtesy of Victor Chandler! You see, you look at it in this light, and you realise they really had no option. Closing my account really was the only plausible course of action.
Scarcasm placed to one side now, they really do take the biscuit. What must an advert on a Saturday afternoon in the middle of Channel 4 Racing cost them? I don't know the answer to that one, but I'm sure it's a darned sight more than I've ever cost them. It makes me sick when you see representatives of Victor Chandler, BetFred, Boylesports and others on television before the big meetings, boasting about how they have laid such and such a horse to lose thousands. How they've taken that £20k bet on Surefiredwinner in the 3.30 at 16/1. And yet the reality of it all is that show just a hint that you might know what you're doing when it comes to gambling on the nags or some other sport, and you are going to find your account closed with no explanation, no right to appeal, and with a shocking lack of any sense of customer service.
Why oh why are they not challenged? No-one in the Racing Post is ever going to say anything to challenge the honesty of those that provide the publication with so much revenue via advertising costs. But why not that lump McCririck? Why not the outspoken Matt Chapman on ATR? These people set themselves up as being the voice of the common punter, always ready to criticise jockeys for poor rides or clerks of the course giving inaccurate going reports. Why don't they ask the bookmaker's representatives a straight question - why do you so quickly close accounts of those few punters that are making a marginal profit? These people in the media must be aware of the situation - I see people on Twitter complaining bitterly and I'm sure there has been correspondence to the trade newspaper and television channels outlining the lies, misleading adverts and other falsehoods peddled by various bookmaking firms.
What we need is a revolution. A voice and figurehead that we can rally behind. Someone who can really be the Champion of the Punter.
I won't hold my breath.
Recent Performance
The last three days have seen a loss of a shade over £100. The roi on the month now stands at 14.61%.
Really very little to report. The only profitable service over the last three days has been Northern Monkey (+0.594pts), thanks to a nice winner yesterday (Miami Gator - Carlisle - 13/1 after a R4 deduction). Unfortunately the stake on this was small.
The others have shown small losses; Winning Racing Tips (-0.191pts), Chasemaster (-0.25pts), On The Nose (-2.624pts) and despite finding two winners, ProBandit (-0.125pts), one being tipped on Tuesday (Golden Waters - Brighton - 2/1) and the other today (Doc Hay - Hamilton - 5/4).
Pretty boring, really, especially after the excitement of Royal Ascot last week.
Speak soon.
Monday, 20 June 2011
Chasing the big one.
I must say, I'm quite pleased that Royal Ascot is over. Don't get me wrong, the spectacle is great (and I'm referring to the racing action here, not all the fashion bollocks) and I do thoroughly enjoy watching the sport. I spent Saturday afternoon round at a mate's with a beer, a Racing Post, and the racing on - heaven!
No. The reason I'm relieved it's over is that like the other big racing festivals, the tipsters are understandably geared up to the big meeting, and it is not unusual to be backing two, three, four, maybe even five or more different horses in the same race. And bearing in mind this multiplicity tends to occur most frequently in the big handicaps, the potential for everything to go wrong is high.
I'll give you an example of what I'm talking about. After Thursday, I was on somewhat of a high. 4PA had had a stormer and I'd made just short of £450 on the day. And then on Friday, in the time it took to run the 4.25, I'd given nearly half of it back.
I had £75 on Green Destiny as a 4PA tip, plus another £45 as this was ProBandit's main selection for the race - Green Destiny ran a stinker...-£120.
As a saver, 4PA also had Waydown South win only at 16/1. Waydown South finished 3rd at 20/1 - a great run, but not good enough to save another £25 from going down the drain.
Meanwhile, Northern Monkey had selected Lost In The Moment at 8/1, win only. Only a small bet (£7.50), but another £15 was added - win only - by it being ProBandit's second selection in the race. Naturally, Lost In The Moment finished 2nd. Another great run...a further £22.50 down the swanny.
Mind you, ProBandit hadn't left it there, covering another base with Spanish Duke. Unfortunately this nag finished plumb last. -£15.
Of course, I haven't yet mentioned On The Nose. Circumvent was the each way pick at a tasty 25/1. Nowhere. -£30.
So, one race, seven tips. Amongst them was the horse that finished 2nd at 8/1 and the horse that finished third at 20/1. And yet, somehow, I had done £212.50.
Now I understand that a couple of hundred quid isn't even a minor stake for the big hitters out there. But to me, it's a dent, and was particularly galling after the previous day's success. What to do about it? Nothing. It's just a part of the game that has to be lived with if using a portfolio of tipsters. And you do get the odd big wins in these sort of races which means that over time, income exceeds outgoings. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it though, does it?
Recent Performance
Things hadn't gone that well over the last three days. Not disastrously, just a little uninspired. And then tonight, Winning Racing Tips came up with what in scientific terms is known as a 'stonker'! The month is currently running at an overall roi of 18%. Let's hope that can be maintained.
4PA has been the biggest loser after a disappointing Saturday produced a loss of 2.78 points. Perspective necessary though, as over the whole of Royal Ascot last week, they achieved an roi a shade below 30% (5.085 points) - good figures by anyone's standards.
Northern Monkey (-0.974 points) and Chasemaster (-0.25 points) have been quiet. Northern Monkey had tipped Waffle each way for the Wokingham on Saturday at 25/1, and the beast finished a neck second and with another 15 yards to run would have got up. Fine lines and all that.
ProBandit have also been quiet but found a winner today (Gracie's Games - Chepstow - 4/1) although that just gave a shade of profit (+0.19 points) when the two losers in a previous race had been accounted for. They had no bets at all over the weekend.
On The Nose had a good Saturday (+2.95pts) after giving a horse that finished in the frame in the aforementioned Wokingham (Gramercy - Ascot - 22/1) and also a winner in Ireland (Celendine - Down Royal - 6/1). No bets Sunday or today.
And finally Winning Racing Tips, which after dropping just ove half a point on Sunday, today came up with a lovely winner (Stage Attraction - Chepstow - 5/1 & 9/2). It wasn't so much the price that made it such a good bet, more the identification of real value and a subsequent relatively big stake advised. Great stuff!
So overall for the three days, a profit of a couple of quid over £200. Keeps things ticking over nicely.
No. The reason I'm relieved it's over is that like the other big racing festivals, the tipsters are understandably geared up to the big meeting, and it is not unusual to be backing two, three, four, maybe even five or more different horses in the same race. And bearing in mind this multiplicity tends to occur most frequently in the big handicaps, the potential for everything to go wrong is high.
I'll give you an example of what I'm talking about. After Thursday, I was on somewhat of a high. 4PA had had a stormer and I'd made just short of £450 on the day. And then on Friday, in the time it took to run the 4.25, I'd given nearly half of it back.
I had £75 on Green Destiny as a 4PA tip, plus another £45 as this was ProBandit's main selection for the race - Green Destiny ran a stinker...-£120.
As a saver, 4PA also had Waydown South win only at 16/1. Waydown South finished 3rd at 20/1 - a great run, but not good enough to save another £25 from going down the drain.
Meanwhile, Northern Monkey had selected Lost In The Moment at 8/1, win only. Only a small bet (£7.50), but another £15 was added - win only - by it being ProBandit's second selection in the race. Naturally, Lost In The Moment finished 2nd. Another great run...a further £22.50 down the swanny.
Mind you, ProBandit hadn't left it there, covering another base with Spanish Duke. Unfortunately this nag finished plumb last. -£15.
Of course, I haven't yet mentioned On The Nose. Circumvent was the each way pick at a tasty 25/1. Nowhere. -£30.
So, one race, seven tips. Amongst them was the horse that finished 2nd at 8/1 and the horse that finished third at 20/1. And yet, somehow, I had done £212.50.
Now I understand that a couple of hundred quid isn't even a minor stake for the big hitters out there. But to me, it's a dent, and was particularly galling after the previous day's success. What to do about it? Nothing. It's just a part of the game that has to be lived with if using a portfolio of tipsters. And you do get the odd big wins in these sort of races which means that over time, income exceeds outgoings. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it though, does it?
Recent Performance
Things hadn't gone that well over the last three days. Not disastrously, just a little uninspired. And then tonight, Winning Racing Tips came up with what in scientific terms is known as a 'stonker'! The month is currently running at an overall roi of 18%. Let's hope that can be maintained.
4PA has been the biggest loser after a disappointing Saturday produced a loss of 2.78 points. Perspective necessary though, as over the whole of Royal Ascot last week, they achieved an roi a shade below 30% (5.085 points) - good figures by anyone's standards.
Northern Monkey (-0.974 points) and Chasemaster (-0.25 points) have been quiet. Northern Monkey had tipped Waffle each way for the Wokingham on Saturday at 25/1, and the beast finished a neck second and with another 15 yards to run would have got up. Fine lines and all that.
ProBandit have also been quiet but found a winner today (Gracie's Games - Chepstow - 4/1) although that just gave a shade of profit (+0.19 points) when the two losers in a previous race had been accounted for. They had no bets at all over the weekend.
On The Nose had a good Saturday (+2.95pts) after giving a horse that finished in the frame in the aforementioned Wokingham (Gramercy - Ascot - 22/1) and also a winner in Ireland (Celendine - Down Royal - 6/1). No bets Sunday or today.
And finally Winning Racing Tips, which after dropping just ove half a point on Sunday, today came up with a lovely winner (Stage Attraction - Chepstow - 5/1 & 9/2). It wasn't so much the price that made it such a good bet, more the identification of real value and a subsequent relatively big stake advised. Great stuff!
So overall for the three days, a profit of a couple of quid over £200. Keeps things ticking over nicely.
Friday, 17 June 2011
Record keeping's what you need. If you want to be an all-star gamb-l-er, yeah!
Sadly, the title doesn't relate to groundbreaking profits being hit over the course of Royal Ascot. More of how that has been going down below.
No. The title is a reference to a comment left by Matthew after the last post...
I am a fellow portfolio investor with an interest in computer software design. The thing I find most difficult about portfolio investing is the large amount of time that it takes to accurately record and analyse results....obv very important. I was just wondering if you think there is a need for specific software to make this easier and quicker?
Mmm. Good question. I'm not sure if I find keeping records up to speed the most difficult aspect of running a portfolio, I must admit. In fact, when things are going well I find myself smiling as I bring the figures up to date. Not so keen on it when losing, mind.
Being serious though, record keeping is obviously a vital part of "investment" gambling. In fact I would go as far as to say that it is impossible to turn a profit in the long term without keeping accurate details on what is happening. And Matthew is right. Maintaining those records can be extremely time consuming.
So. Do I think there is a need for bespoke software to help ease the burden of this task? I think the answer to that question depends on what you aim to get from the figures. Purely on a personal level, no I don't need software. I'll explain why not.
My approach to gambling is, as we know, to hire the services of the experts. My skill, if we can call it that, is to select the right experts to follow and to methodically place the bets advised. It is to ensure I get the recommended odds as often as possible, to not miss any bets, to ensure my staking is correct, to make certain my bank sizes are sufficient, and to not allow the inevitable bad times to put me off and in the face of psychological adversity, to stay on the path of righteousness (Praise the Lord!). Easier said than done. What I don't ask of myself is to detect, from the stats, where an extra edge might be attained. Or what tinkering I can do to squeeze a little more profit out of all the advice I am given by the services I follow. No. I see that as part of what I am paying for when I pay my subs.
Now please don't get me wrong. I am not saying that conducting regular analysis of bets and performance is not the right thing to do. Far from it and in fact, if I thought that any of the people that run any of the services I use didn't do this on a regular basis, I would drop them quicker than Manual Almunia can drop a cross. This after all, was one of the reasons behind my decision a year or so ago to drop Punter Profits NH from my portfolio as it became apparent that a full review of system performance had not been carried out for too long a period of time.
I am also a big admirer of the work that Kodagira carries out when analysing the services he uses, and of Mat Hare (The Secret Diary blog) when he breaks down the performance of his income generators. I am fascinated by analysis they each do into their own systems and services. Graeme Dand of The Footaball Analyst dazzles me with the analytical research he has put into the development of his football systems and indeed, of his racing picks when he was running The Form Analyst. But the thing is, you see, I don't have their sort of brain. My brain just doesn't function in that way, but I am good at following orders. If I had some guts, I'd have made a great soldier! And I have to play to my strengths, so I place myself in the hands of the tipsters and pay heed to their instructions.
That is why all I need is a running total of how things are going with my portfolio - on an individual tipster basis and as a collective. And I don't need software to help me do that. If Graeme is reading this, I imagine he will have his head in his hands whilst cursing me under his breath and writing me off as a hopeless case. Some time ago he very kindly produced an Excel spreadsheet for recording my bets (which I use), but I don't utilise it as much as I could/should, for the reasons I explained above. (Sorry, Graeme.)
Having said all that, for anyone who is serious about developing their own methods or who would like to drill down further into the stats of the services they follow to see if they can eke out a higher roi, then yes, I'm sure specific software is a basic necessity.
I hope this answers the question, Matthew. By the way, if you'd like to share more in terms of how you utilise software and the benefits it can bring, please do leave another comment. I'd be more than happy posting it up here. All I've given here is my own personal viewpoint. I'm certain there are many portfolio gamblers who would really benefit from some decent software.
Recent performance
Well it's still a decent month so far; currently running at an roi of 17.5% so I mustn't complain. The last three days have been a little too up-and-down for my liking though. Wednesday showed a loss of £108, Thursday a profit of £445, and today a loss of £323!
Five of the six racing services have actually produced a loss over the last three days, although ProBandit (-0.487pts), Winning Racing Tips (-0.4pts) and Chasemaster (-0.25pts - I gave up doing the lays at the beginning of the month as it just doesn't fit with my psyche - sorry, Peter!) losses have been negligible.
Northern Monkey (-5.5pts) has struggled a little but is still running at a very nice 27% roi for the month overall, and On The Nose (-2.625pts) had a lovely Ascot winner on Wednesday (Strong Suit - 11/1) but has found it difficult since.
It has been the profits 4PA pulled in yesterday that has kept it all afloat. They really produced the goods on Thursday tipping Slumber each way (3rd at 15/1), Brigantin each way (3rd at 20/1), and Brown Panther each way (Won at 7/1).
All in all, a three day profit of £12.70. Better than losing, I guess.
Right, I'm off.
No. The title is a reference to a comment left by Matthew after the last post...
I am a fellow portfolio investor with an interest in computer software design. The thing I find most difficult about portfolio investing is the large amount of time that it takes to accurately record and analyse results....obv very important. I was just wondering if you think there is a need for specific software to make this easier and quicker?
Mmm. Good question. I'm not sure if I find keeping records up to speed the most difficult aspect of running a portfolio, I must admit. In fact, when things are going well I find myself smiling as I bring the figures up to date. Not so keen on it when losing, mind.
Being serious though, record keeping is obviously a vital part of "investment" gambling. In fact I would go as far as to say that it is impossible to turn a profit in the long term without keeping accurate details on what is happening. And Matthew is right. Maintaining those records can be extremely time consuming.
So. Do I think there is a need for bespoke software to help ease the burden of this task? I think the answer to that question depends on what you aim to get from the figures. Purely on a personal level, no I don't need software. I'll explain why not.
My approach to gambling is, as we know, to hire the services of the experts. My skill, if we can call it that, is to select the right experts to follow and to methodically place the bets advised. It is to ensure I get the recommended odds as often as possible, to not miss any bets, to ensure my staking is correct, to make certain my bank sizes are sufficient, and to not allow the inevitable bad times to put me off and in the face of psychological adversity, to stay on the path of righteousness (Praise the Lord!). Easier said than done. What I don't ask of myself is to detect, from the stats, where an extra edge might be attained. Or what tinkering I can do to squeeze a little more profit out of all the advice I am given by the services I follow. No. I see that as part of what I am paying for when I pay my subs.
Now please don't get me wrong. I am not saying that conducting regular analysis of bets and performance is not the right thing to do. Far from it and in fact, if I thought that any of the people that run any of the services I use didn't do this on a regular basis, I would drop them quicker than Manual Almunia can drop a cross. This after all, was one of the reasons behind my decision a year or so ago to drop Punter Profits NH from my portfolio as it became apparent that a full review of system performance had not been carried out for too long a period of time.
I am also a big admirer of the work that Kodagira carries out when analysing the services he uses, and of Mat Hare (The Secret Diary blog) when he breaks down the performance of his income generators. I am fascinated by analysis they each do into their own systems and services. Graeme Dand of The Footaball Analyst dazzles me with the analytical research he has put into the development of his football systems and indeed, of his racing picks when he was running The Form Analyst. But the thing is, you see, I don't have their sort of brain. My brain just doesn't function in that way, but I am good at following orders. If I had some guts, I'd have made a great soldier! And I have to play to my strengths, so I place myself in the hands of the tipsters and pay heed to their instructions.
That is why all I need is a running total of how things are going with my portfolio - on an individual tipster basis and as a collective. And I don't need software to help me do that. If Graeme is reading this, I imagine he will have his head in his hands whilst cursing me under his breath and writing me off as a hopeless case. Some time ago he very kindly produced an Excel spreadsheet for recording my bets (which I use), but I don't utilise it as much as I could/should, for the reasons I explained above. (Sorry, Graeme.)
Having said all that, for anyone who is serious about developing their own methods or who would like to drill down further into the stats of the services they follow to see if they can eke out a higher roi, then yes, I'm sure specific software is a basic necessity.
I hope this answers the question, Matthew. By the way, if you'd like to share more in terms of how you utilise software and the benefits it can bring, please do leave another comment. I'd be more than happy posting it up here. All I've given here is my own personal viewpoint. I'm certain there are many portfolio gamblers who would really benefit from some decent software.
Recent performance
Well it's still a decent month so far; currently running at an roi of 17.5% so I mustn't complain. The last three days have been a little too up-and-down for my liking though. Wednesday showed a loss of £108, Thursday a profit of £445, and today a loss of £323!
Five of the six racing services have actually produced a loss over the last three days, although ProBandit (-0.487pts), Winning Racing Tips (-0.4pts) and Chasemaster (-0.25pts - I gave up doing the lays at the beginning of the month as it just doesn't fit with my psyche - sorry, Peter!) losses have been negligible.
Northern Monkey (-5.5pts) has struggled a little but is still running at a very nice 27% roi for the month overall, and On The Nose (-2.625pts) had a lovely Ascot winner on Wednesday (Strong Suit - 11/1) but has found it difficult since.
It has been the profits 4PA pulled in yesterday that has kept it all afloat. They really produced the goods on Thursday tipping Slumber each way (3rd at 15/1), Brigantin each way (3rd at 20/1), and Brown Panther each way (Won at 7/1).
All in all, a three day profit of £12.70. Better than losing, I guess.
Right, I'm off.
Tuesday, 14 June 2011
Back with a...with a... Well, back anyway.
Here again. Out of the blue.
I think I owe a few people an explanation. I have been absent without leave and I'm kinda thinking that I should have posted something a little sooner. Apologies.
I have taken a break from the blog (no kidding!) just to take stock of things. Try and work out in what direction the blog should go. As I mentioned previously, I was acutely worried about the blog becoming a mere description of profit and loss and by doing so, would become boring to read and boring to write. I had realised that a mistake I had made when starting The Portfolio Investor was assuming that there would be an endless series of topics to write about. Of course, there are not.
My other concern was that the blog was becoming a little "preachy", if there is such a word. I didn't and don't want to give the impression that I think that the way I do things is the "correct" way to go about gambling on a serious or semi-serious basis. We all have opinions as to which is the best way to go about doing something. I didn't want to be seen to be trying to impose my ways and methods. Possibly I'm being a little oversensitive here. Actually, I know I'm being a bit of a wet lettuce with regard this. Well, I'm determined if I am to be a lettuce, I shall be an Iceberg, strong and crispy, a true King of the lettuce world. Not a Garden Lettuce with limp, sorry excuse for leaves. Oh no. Iceberg - that's me.
Enough lettuce talk.
I've had a few ideas now. Some I will try my best to bring to fruition, others may fall by the wayside. At the risk of sounding unnecessarily mysterious, I don't want to go into detail at this point. And these things are likely to take months as opposed to days to bring about, so nothing revelatory just yet. In the meantime, I will return to blogging. Not every day, though. I have started to play tennis again at a local club after years of not playing. I'm determined that as I reach my fourtieth year, I shall make an effort to retain some modicum of fitness. This means that often my evenings are full and whereas before I would put myself under real pressure to get the blog done, I'm not going to do that any more. Sometimes there may be only one post a week. At other times I may get up a head of steam and rattle off a few posts over consecutive nights. It really depends on what is happening. I'm not going to force subjects to write about any more, rather wait for something to happen that perhaps merits comment. An example would have been the recent announcement of the SBC taking over the running of Chasemaster. I've had my say on the SBC forum so I imagine most people are aware of my thoughts on the matter, ie. no concerns at all from the Chasemaster perspective but one or two reservations from the SBC angle. Credit to the SBC to allow the posing of some serious questions on there by the way.
I'll also avoid relaying the daily/weekly performance of each individual service. I'll try to give enough detail that readers can pick up on how services are performing and I'll continue to do monthly reviews and break the figures down at that point.
For what it's worth, May finished with a profit that was a smidgeon over £1,200. June is going alright so far with a profit of £700 at an roi of 25% (in other words, it's going far too well for it to last too much longer!). The stars of the month so far have been Northern Monkey (who had a nice winner today, as it happens...Ginger Ted - 8/1 - Thirsk) and On The Nose (which also had a winner today...Power - 5/1 - Ascot).
Right, that's it for now. Good to be back.:)
I think I owe a few people an explanation. I have been absent without leave and I'm kinda thinking that I should have posted something a little sooner. Apologies.
I have taken a break from the blog (no kidding!) just to take stock of things. Try and work out in what direction the blog should go. As I mentioned previously, I was acutely worried about the blog becoming a mere description of profit and loss and by doing so, would become boring to read and boring to write. I had realised that a mistake I had made when starting The Portfolio Investor was assuming that there would be an endless series of topics to write about. Of course, there are not.
My other concern was that the blog was becoming a little "preachy", if there is such a word. I didn't and don't want to give the impression that I think that the way I do things is the "correct" way to go about gambling on a serious or semi-serious basis. We all have opinions as to which is the best way to go about doing something. I didn't want to be seen to be trying to impose my ways and methods. Possibly I'm being a little oversensitive here. Actually, I know I'm being a bit of a wet lettuce with regard this. Well, I'm determined if I am to be a lettuce, I shall be an Iceberg, strong and crispy, a true King of the lettuce world. Not a Garden Lettuce with limp, sorry excuse for leaves. Oh no. Iceberg - that's me.
Enough lettuce talk.
I've had a few ideas now. Some I will try my best to bring to fruition, others may fall by the wayside. At the risk of sounding unnecessarily mysterious, I don't want to go into detail at this point. And these things are likely to take months as opposed to days to bring about, so nothing revelatory just yet. In the meantime, I will return to blogging. Not every day, though. I have started to play tennis again at a local club after years of not playing. I'm determined that as I reach my fourtieth year, I shall make an effort to retain some modicum of fitness. This means that often my evenings are full and whereas before I would put myself under real pressure to get the blog done, I'm not going to do that any more. Sometimes there may be only one post a week. At other times I may get up a head of steam and rattle off a few posts over consecutive nights. It really depends on what is happening. I'm not going to force subjects to write about any more, rather wait for something to happen that perhaps merits comment. An example would have been the recent announcement of the SBC taking over the running of Chasemaster. I've had my say on the SBC forum so I imagine most people are aware of my thoughts on the matter, ie. no concerns at all from the Chasemaster perspective but one or two reservations from the SBC angle. Credit to the SBC to allow the posing of some serious questions on there by the way.
I'll also avoid relaying the daily/weekly performance of each individual service. I'll try to give enough detail that readers can pick up on how services are performing and I'll continue to do monthly reviews and break the figures down at that point.
For what it's worth, May finished with a profit that was a smidgeon over £1,200. June is going alright so far with a profit of £700 at an roi of 25% (in other words, it's going far too well for it to last too much longer!). The stars of the month so far have been Northern Monkey (who had a nice winner today, as it happens...Ginger Ted - 8/1 - Thirsk) and On The Nose (which also had a winner today...Power - 5/1 - Ascot).
Right, that's it for now. Good to be back.:)
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