Thursday 29 March 2012

Questions, questions, and more questions.

You know in the run up to Cheltenham, and over Cheltenham week itself, it felt as if there was little time to breathe, let alone think. It was all go. Placing bets, trying to secure best odds, keeping records, noting details of all the antepost wagers struck, etc., etc. It felt manic and I remember writing on the blog on the Friday evening that the Festival finished, that I was knackered. Placing so many bets had made me weary, a state of being no doubt exacerbated by the stress of having so much money staked and at risk over such a concentrated period.

Thinking is something I like to do. A weakness of mine is that there are times when I think too much. There is such a thing as analysis paralysis, and it is something that I have to fight against constantly, and not just when related to betting. Having said that, just rushing into things - particularly gambling - is foolish.

The lull post-Cheltenham has therefore come as a blessed relief, for it has given me the opportunity to think. Long, hard and deep, like...like...actually, probably best if we leave that there.

"What have you been thinking about?", I hear you all cry.

The Future. That's what. The Future of my gambling.

What am I aiming for? What do I want from it? What are the chances of gambling full time in The Future? Would I want to gamble full time in The Future? How do I want to develop as a gambler? How can I ensure that I am able to gamble in the future? How far can I grow the portfolio/stakes I'm using?

Look, the list of questions is endless.

Now is this just me? Am I unhealthily obsessed? Or do you do the same? Is this constant thinking about how to improve things normal and healthy and something that anyone who gambles or trades "seriously" must do? Or is it just me, in need of a life? Or at the very least a pint to help me chill out?

Gonna have to go away and think about that last one...


Today's Betting


Felt a bit sorry for Wayne at Northern Monkey today. Just the one bet, staked that bit bigger and at a good price (Sunset Kitty - Kempton - 12/1). To my eye, the jockey just gave it that little bit too much to do too late, and as a result it finished a fast finishing second. The winner was impressive and a better timed run may have made no difference, but in what has been a tough month for Northern Monkey, it would have been nice to have found out.

Elsewhere on the gee gees, no luck for Chasemaster (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/2), and the Winning Racing Tips selection was second at 5/1 so stakes returned.

On The Oche had the one bet in tonight's Premier League matches, which was unsuccessful.

So not much cop today, although a nice trade on the Sharapova/Wozniacki match this evening courtesy of the Betfair Guru. Add to that a little lay of my own on Mardy Fish that I have greened up on after the first set, it's been a better day's trading than it has been gambling.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +0.6pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, N/A.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt.


Month to Date


Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 26.75pts, -11.36pts, roi -42.46%
4PA: Staked 46.5pts, -6.312pts, roi -13.57%
Chasemaster: Staked 9.25pts, +1.482pts, roi 16.02%
WRT: Staked 12.3pts, +2.545pts, roi 20.69%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 25.5pts, +2.75pts, roi 10.78%
The Market Examiner: Staked 45pts, -9.245pts, roi -20.54%

Sports

TFA 7/22: Staked 15pts, +7.325pts, roi 48.83%
Skeeve: Staked 60pts, -0.63pts, roi -1.05%
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +4.445pts, roi 31.75%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.65pts, +0.135pts, roi 20.76%
On The Oche: Staked 4pts, -1.75pts, roi -43.75%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 12pts, -4.3pts, -35.83%


Now then. Tomorrow night I'm off out galavanting with the chaps and chapesses at work and will be in no fit state to be blogging when I get home. So it won't be until Monday that my next post will be up and ready to read, by which time of course we'll be into a brand new month. Have a great weekend folks and see you next week.

Wednesday 28 March 2012

Tumbleweed...

You know, there's absolutely bugger all happening. It's quiet. Very quiet. Nothing to talk about. Nothing to moan about. Nothing to get excited about.

So, all things considered, I shan't force things in terms of writing this blog. No doubt something will happen soon that will merit comment and analysis.

Until then...


Today's Betting

A tiny loss recorded on the day.

Northern Monkey
found a nice winner (Dorothy's Dancing - Lingfield - 9/2) from their two selections, but no success for Chasemaster (0/1). And that was it for today.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +0.58pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.


Month to Date


Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 25.75pts, -11.96pts, roi -46.44%
4PA: Staked 46.5pts, -6.312pts, roi -13.57%
Chasemaster: Staked 9pts, +1.732pts, roi 19.25%
WRT: Staked 11.3pts, +2.545pts, roi 22.52%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 24.5pts, +3.75pts, roi 15.3%
The Market Examiner: Staked 43pts, -7.245pts, roi -16.84%

Sports

TFA 7/22: Staked 15pts, +7.325pts, roi 48.83%
Skeeve: Staked 60pts, -0.63pts, roi -1.05%
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +4.445pts, roi 31.75%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.65pts, +0.135pts, roi 20.76%
On The Oche: Staked 3pts, -0.75pts, roi -25%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 12pts, -4.3pts, -35.83%

Tuesday 27 March 2012

Pinnacle show how it should be done.

Skeeve posted a link in the Comments section last week, to an interview with a Senior Trader at Pinnacle Sports bookmaker. I managed to take a squizz over the weekend, and I have to say the interviews do provide a fascinating insight into the way that Pinnacle work. I challenge anyone to watch these videos and then not come away thinking what a wonderful punting world it would be if all bookmakers took a similar approach. Accounts are not "profiled" as such (with a view to closing them down) and in fact the Trader was at pains to emphasise that accounts only came under a threat of closure if it is deemed that suspicious (ie. shady) patterns were emerging. Instead, winning gamblers were welcomed and used to the advantage of the bookmaker in terms of helping frame the market.

The videos can be found from the Pinnacle home page of their website.

One thing watching the videos did make me realise is that I am smaller than small-fry. When you see the size of stakes that Pinnacle (plus the likes of SBO Bet and 12bet) are prepared to accommodate, and when you hear the Senior Trader talking about the bigger clients that they lay bets from, I have to hold up my hands and accept that I am a completely insignificant player. I reckon I could go through a whole football season (or ten) placing winning bets, and at my staking levels would go completely unnoticed.

More than just a little food for thought.

Today's Betting

A nice little profit today courtesy of The Football Analyst, whose System 7/22 came up with the goods again; one bet, one win. The only slight irritation was that for once I wasn't able to get the largest available odds due to the fact that those were being offered by my best mates over at Bet365. I had previously been told that my restriction on a football bet was a potential profit of £100, but sadly not it transpires, on a bet on a non-league team. Add to the equation the fact that I couldn't remember the CVC number on the back of my wife's bank card, which prevented me from depositing into the account held in her name, and those best odds were kept just out of my reach on this occasion. Still, I'm not going to complain about a winner.

I must say though, I do read Graeme's blog with a wee smile on my face. All this talk of consecutive losing days for the combined systems, and there's me, quietly following System 7/22 and over seven points up for the month and running at an roi of a shade under 49%!

Here's what Graeme had to say on his blog on Sunday:

"The combined systems have managed to make a profit for 5 months straight this season and 12 months in 15 live months. However, they are currently down in March and therefore, it’s looking like an end to this winning streak. Of course, I don’t want to judge the systems over a month spell and neither should anyone else but I’ve been really proud of this run for these systems. Hopefully they can pull something out of the bag in the midweek fixtures and the weekend fixtures but given the current form of the systems, I’m not sure it will happen really."

Now for a footie service (or any service come to think of it!) to be posting profits over five consecutive months - and at healthy levels of roi too, it should be noted - and for twelve months out of the last fifteen, then I'm not bloody surprised he's proud. I would be too! In fact I am proud. By association. That's the association gained by my following his System 7/22, which is what all sane football punters should be doing.


Elsewhere, no luck today for Chasemaster (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/2).

The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.125pts, -0.125pts.
The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 1pt, +1.84pts.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24.75pts, -12.54pts, roi -50.66%
4PA: Staked 46.5pts, -6.312pts, roi -13.57%
Chasemaster: Staked 8.75pts, +1.982pts, roi 22.65%
WRT: Staked 11.3pts, +2.545pts, roi 22.52%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 24.5pts, +3.75pts, roi 15.3%
The Market Examiner: Staked 43pts, -7.245pts, roi -16.84%


Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 15pts, +7.325pts, roi 48.83%
Skeeve: Staked 60pts, -0.63pts, roi -1.05%
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +4.445pts, roi 31.75%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.65pts, +0.135pts, roi 20.76%
On The Oche: Staked 3pts, -0.75pts, roi -25%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 12pts, -4.3pts, -35.83%

Monday 26 March 2012

Downturn.

Very short of time tonight, so just a quick update.

Weekend's Betting


Every now and then, you hit a Saturday when everything goes right. Of course, the counter to this is that every now and then, you hit a Saturday when everything goes wrong. And this Saturday was one of those nasty ones, wiping off 40% of the total profits accrued in the month to date.

It started nicely, with Chasemaster finding a winner (Pepite Rose - Newbury - 15/8) but then it was all downhill from there. The only other "highlight" was the stakes being returned on one of Football Elite's DNB wagers.

Drawing complete blanks were 4PA (0/2), Northern Monkey (0/2), Winning Racing Tips (0/2), The Market Examiner (0/1),Skeeve (0/3 plus one other that returned stakes), and Football Elite (0/2 - including one with stakes returned as mentioned).

As for Sunday...a break even day with On The Nose finding a nice winner (Sharestan - The Curragh - 5/1), and Winning Racing Tips finding one that crossed the line first (Guess Again - Hexham - 3/1), but no joy for Northern Monkey (0/2), Chasemaster (0/1), The Market Examiner (0/2), Football Elite (0/1) or Strike Zone (homes) (0/1).

No joy today either for On The Nose (0/1), The Market Examiner (0/2), or Chasemaster (0/2).


Month to Date


Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24.75pts, -12.54pts, roi -50.66%
4PA: Staked 46.5pts, -6.312pts, roi -13.57%
Chasemaster: Staked 8.625pts, +2.107pts, roi 24.43%
WRT: Staked 11.3pts, +2.545pts, roi 22.52%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 24.5pts, +3.75pts, roi 15.3%
The Market Examiner: Staked 41pts, -5.245pts, roi -12.79%


Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 14pts, +5.485pts, roi 39.17%
Skeeve: Staked 60pts, -0.63pts, roi -1.05%
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +4.445pts, roi 31.75%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.65pts, +0.135pts, roi 20.76%
On The Oche: Staked 3pts, -0.75pts, roi -25%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 12pts, -4.3pts, -35.83%

Right, over to the tennis.

Friday 23 March 2012

Party Time!

What is it with kids' birthday parties these days? In my day, we'd all pile around the birthday boy or girl's house, cram into their living room and tuck into jelly and ice cream after the obligatory pin the tail on the donkey.

Not now. Oh, no. Today's kids' parties are all themed, it seems, and involve hiring halls. Rollerblading, football, cooking, chocolate making...the list is a lengthy one. It's my daughter's seventh birthday party on Sunday. Apparently there is a disco theme.

Well as far as I'm concerned, she's quite old enough to know now that life can be full of disappointments. There's no way I'm spending two hours listening to Katy Perry, One Direction, or any other talentless no-mark who happens to have won the most recent X-Factor or whatever. So I'm going to take over responsibility for the music - these seven year olds need educating. And if I hear one tiny, whispered complaint about The Stone Roses, Oasis, Stereophonics or The Verve, there will be carnage. That, I can promise.

Oh. One other thing. If any grubby, sticky little eight year old oik goes anywhere near my daughter....

Unless his parents are rich of course. That's different.


Two blogs I want to mention tonight.

The author of My Betting Life has decided to stop following his portfolio of services. If you haven't already done so, please do read his last post. In it he explains how the fun has gone out of what he was doing and out of a sport, horse racing, that he previously enjoyed. It's a post full of heartfelt honesty and to my mind, that shows a real strength of character. I think that the person to whom it is most difficult to be 100% honest with is yourself. I admire him for the fact that he has obviously been just that, but for selfish reasons I regret his decision to bring an end to his following of a portfolio of tipping services, for his was the blog I would always look forward to reading. Good luck, mate.

But as one blog finishes, another begins. I'm pleased to draw your attention to it....matt-on-form.blogspot.com (I've added a link to the right). Now readers of my blog know that I recommended The Value Bettor, and his results have certainly ensured that the recommendation was sound. Well, Matt has an eye for a value bet too and I know for a fact he learnt a lot from TVB, so he has a sound pedigree. Finiding bets at great value is Matt's speciality and his blog is going to outline the reasoning behind his picks. It's a top read, so if you're at all interested in horse racing, make sure you go and have a look. You won't regret it. Oh, and he's a Gooner too. Top man!


Today's Betting

A good profit today, courtesy of Chasemaster, who went large on a very nice winner (Belmore Baron - Sedgefield - 6/1). No joy for Northern Monkey (0/1) or The Market Examiner, or On The Nose (0/1).

On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +1.62pts.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 21.75pts, -9.55pts, roi -43.91%
4PA: Staked 43.5pts, -3.312pts, roi -7.61%
Chasemaster: Staked 7.375pts, +2.998pts, roi 40.65%
WRT: Staked 9.1pts, +1.945pts, roi 21.38%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 22.75pts, +1pt, roi 4.39%
The Market Examiner: Staked 36pts, -0.245pts, roi -0.68%


Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 14pts, +5.485pts, roi 39.17%
Skeeve: Staked 47pts, +8.369pts, roi 17.8%
Football Elite: Staked 11pts, +6.445pts, roi 58.59%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 3pts, -0.75pts, roi -25%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 11pts, -3.3pts, -30%


OK. I'm off to plan my track list for Sunday. What first?...Cigarettes And Alcohol or The Drugs Don't Work. Decisions, decisions.

See you Monday.

Thursday 22 March 2012

Fighting back.

It's all very well and good wondering and hypothesising about the whys and wherefores behind bookmaker restrictions, but all the theorising in the world isn't going to actually get our bets on, is it?

How can we fight back?

Well, the first thing I think we need to do is educate ourselves as much as we can. Mike of The Secret Betting Club had this to say:

"Great blog Rowan, such a shame you have been targeted by Bet365 like this. As Skeeve says they do seem to have a scattergun approach to restrictions as some very profitable punters are seemingly able to bet without problem. Unfortunately there seems a good number of punters who show a modicum of profit and whom Bet365 refuse to do business with. They are not the only ones either - not sure if you have seen this link http://www.pjmracing.co.uk/wallofshame.html

It is something we have explored via SBC in the past and as I know you are an active member, do check out the 8 articles we have about bookmakers and betting exchanges available in the betting guide section.

In particular I would recommend the know your enemy articles by Kodagira which explore the use of VPS or proxy servers. You mentioned using your wife's account and this is certainly one way of tackling the problem. Before you do so however, I would strongly recommend you consider 'different' ways of logging in and placing bets with them. When I was a bit more green around the ears I tried accessing a 2nd Bet365 account (after my first was restricted) without following some of the help Kodagira outlined and it was linked within days."


Now I have read the articles that Mike refers to, but I must confess it was some time ago and my homework for the weekend is to refresh my memory. I do remember reading Kodagira's superb piece on the use of proxy servers. At the time I didn't have any problems at all getting bets on and as someone who is not exactly IT savvy, I mentally stored his article in the part of my brain labelled 'To Come Back To When I Need It'. Well, now is the time to go back to it, because I do now need to read it!

It's an interesting point upon which to ponder though, isn't it? We've spent the last couple of days or so talking about how the bookmakers utilise IT to their advantage. Well, shouldn't we punters be doing exactly the same? I think so.

Now look chaps, it wouldn't be right of me to go into detail about what Kodagira has written, or into the detail contained in the SBC articles, but what I will do is explain exactly what I do over the days and weeks ahead.

The message to take away from this post though, is that there are ways and means to stay functional as a successful gambler. I do feel, as stated previously, that ultimately a shift in emphasis to weight operations more towards football betting is likely to be necessary, especially if we are still focused on growing our betting as opposed to keeping it at a certain level, which I am.

In the meantime, we need to box clever, adapt and persevere. I'm not giving up yet, that's for sure.


Today's Betting

Before I go through today's results, a quick word about the figures recorded on Winning Racing Tips' selections yesterday. When I got today's email from Paul, which stated that yesterday had been a break-even day, I wondered if I'd done something wrong. I then got an email from a friend who reads the blog and who is also a WRT member, saying that I had made a mistake with yesterday's figures. So I checked, and indeed I had made a mistake. Not with the recording of the results though, but rather with the placing of the bets. I had mistakenly placed the same double twice, and it happened to be the double that held one winner and a non-runner. Therefore I was paid out twice on a winning bet, and avoided placing the double that produced a small loss. Makes a nice change for an error to lead to increased profits as opposed to a heavier loss. Sod's Law must have taken the day off.

On to today, and a poor day it has been too.

Only three racing services in action today and blanks all round; On The Nose (0/2) and Chasemaster (0/2), and The Market Examiner (0/5).

So could On The Oche save me with their one bet tonight? No.

On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt.


Month to Date

Racing

Northern Monkey: Staked 19.75pts, -7.55pts, roi -38.23%
4PA: Staked 43.5pts, -3.312pts, roi -7.61%
Chasemaster: Staked 6.875pts, +1.378pts, roi 20.04%
WRT: Staked 9.1pts, +1.945pts, roi 21.38%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 22.25pts, +1.5pts, roi 6.74%
The Market Examiner: Staked 33pts, +2.755pts, roi 8.34%

Sports

TFA 7/22: Staked 14pts, +5.485pts, roi 39.17%
Skeeve: Staked 47pts, +8.369pts, roi 17.8%
Football Elite: Staked 11pts, +6.445pts, roi 58.59%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 3pts, -0.75pts, roi -25%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 11pts, -3.3pts, -30%

Wednesday 21 March 2012

What are bookmakers for if not to lay a bet?

So where are we up to then? That's right. Them dirty dastardly bookie chaps, few of which would appear to want to lay a bet.

The superbly named 'Bertie Big Bollocks' left a comment on Sunday that merits closer perusal (if only to bring attention to the pen name!)...

"Hi, you know people complain that the bookies are unfair cos they closed accounts, but lets face it if your bad for business your not wellcome, put yourself in there shoes, your costing them money!! if it was your business,wot would you do? i'm onto my 6th lot of accounts, still have all 6 on the go but have lost alot of different bookmaker accounts. I find the biggest bookie hate is wot they wood call stealing the price lol, you get on say 10/1 and the sp is 4/1, you do this time and time again the bookie picks up on this and long term they know that your going to come out on top so they close you down. wot can you do about this to prolong your accounts? do some mug bets trebles accums... your still get closed down in the long run, but hopfully in the meantime you would have taken a few quid off of them. you can use LOGMEIN on ipad two work your home computers when your out and about to place your bets and its free to down load."

Now, I can see where BBB is coming from here. He's been polite to avoid actually saying, "Look, this is a fact of gambling life. Stop moaning and get on with it", in so many words, but reading between the lines, this is the message I'm getting. And you know something, it's that kind of attitude that is spot on. Never one for moaning - unless it's against a poor refereeing decision against the mighty Arsenal - I do think that this is the approach we punters need to take. I've no time for excuse making - excuses don't make money and simply get in the way of what we're trying to achieve in life, so in this regard, I couldn't agree with BBB more.

However...I don't agree with BBB's actual words. I can see the logic that if a business has an unprofitable client then it is quite understandable should they take measures to get rid. That's fine, but only up to a point. Skeeve has already highlighted how Pinnacle set an admirable example in how they use successful punters to their advantage but this aside, surely the role of a BOOKMAKER is to make a BOOK. That is, they ought to concentrate on running a book which proficiently provides the overround that is their profit. Or am I missing something here?

What percentage of a major bookmaker's clients make money anyway? We all know how difficult it is to turn a profit over the long term, and I suggest there aren't many that do. These are multi-million pound turnover companies we're talking about here. In August 2011, Ladbrokes announced their half yearly profits had slipped - to £71.8 million! That's not turnover. That's profit. Their turnover in that six month period was £1.25 billion! And these in recessionary times.

Now in this context, please consider the regular appearances made by smarmy bookmaker reps on Channel 4 Racing, ATR and Racing UK, boasting about how they lay big bets, complaining that they've been taken for millions in the ring when a short-priced favourite wins a big race at Cheltenham. That they're so customer focused though, that they'll be back tomorrow, bravely laying anyone for any amount.

Consider the way in which the bookmaking companies with high street shops have spent a relatively small part of their income on installing slot machines, machines that prey on the vulnerable (Gambling Aware have labelled these machines a scourge of society) and which are guaranteed to make a certain percentage of turnover in profit. Ladbrokes turnover on these machines for the same period referred to above was £4.9 billion! That's £4.9bn worth of turnover with a guaranteed percentage of profit produced!

Now consider the likes of Fred Done and Victor Chandler's advertising campaigns in which they portray themselves as being 'The Punter's Friend', or as characters who frequent various sporting events laying anyone who wants a bet. Good old reliable Fred - he'll always take a bet! It's what he does!

Consider these things, and then ask if it's reasonable to close the account of someone - or at least severely restrict the account - of the very few who make a profit. Ask how, in this context, Bet365 will allow a punter with an average stake of £20-£100 to win a maximum of just £30 on the outcome of any one horse race. How can, when a company market themselves as being a bookmaker, be justified in taking such action?

To my mind, they can't. End of.

Right. I've run out of time, what with the footie this evening and all. I do want to talk about Mike's comment (SBC Mike, that is) left under Sunday's post, because that will lead us nicely to talking about how we can fight back against these bookies and their desperate and evil deeds. This is a war and we are fighting the fight of the righteous don't you know? Oh yes.

But right now I'm done in. See you tomorrow.


Today's Betting


Small profit today. Winning Racing Tips played an each way single which placed (Global Sunset - Haydock - 5/2) and doubled it up with a winner (Oscar's Sunset - Hereford - 5/2). They also had a non-runner that was doubled up with Oscar's Sunset too, so obviously there was a return there too. All a bit complicated, but all ended well.

On The Nose found another winner from their two selections (Chance du Roy - Haydock - 9/2), and The Sportsman Racing did the same (Outrageous Request - Hereford - Evens) but came out dead even on the day. A day to forget for Chasemaster (0/3) and The Market Examiner (0/6).

Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, -0.625pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +1.75pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 5pts, -5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.6pts, +1.118pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, +/-.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 19.75pts, -7.55pts, roi -38.23%
4PA: Staked 43.5pts, -3.312pts, roi -7.61%
Chasemaster: Staked 6.375pts, +1.878pts, roi 29.46%
WRT: Staked 9.1pts, +1.945pts, roi 21.38%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 5.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 25.96%
On The Nose: Staked 21.25pts, +2.5pts, roi 11.76%
The Market Examiner: Staked 30pts, +5.755pts, roi 19.18%

Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 14pts, +5.485pts, roi 39.17%
Skeeve: Staked 47pts, +8.369pts, roi 17.8%
Football Elite: Staked 11pts, +6.445pts, roi 58.59%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts, roi 12.5%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 11pts, -3.3pts, -30%


Match of the Day, here I come...

Tuesday 20 March 2012

Spreading the lurve...

Before I start exploring the issue of bookmaker restrictions further, I want to post up a fascinating comment left by the bookie 'Insider', around whose original comment I based last night's post.

He said...

"The same voice from inside(not b365): you have to consider that companies who play in financial markets have developed bots that are able to "read" financial reports just seconds after they are published looking for some keywords etc and execute trades accordingly; there are bots that are connected to seismographs in and execute trades when ever they see a minor or major quake that is likely to influence commodity and share prices elsewhere in the world. Bet365 is a tech pioneer in gaming industry and I wouldn't be surprised if they have created a software that somehow links accounts who have similar betting pattern - say there are 200 accounts who place their bets on the same horse in a 20 minutes interval and all 200 accounts have done so many times before. + what if that software also records all prices on the market with a timestamp? It is pretty clear that all 200 are following the same tipster and/or that all 200 are looking for best prices and never take low value bets. 3 years were nice of course but what if this bad-ass software was introduced 3 months ago?
I have no experience with horse racing bets but I suppose it is possible to flag accounts that come only for value."


This quite possibly answers the question I posed yesterday: how do the bookmakers keep track of so many accounts to the extent whereby they can close or restrict those which they feel pose a threat to them?

What 'Insider' says here makes an awful lot of sense to me. These bookmakers are multi-million pound turnover companies and if utilising some software allows them to identify accounts which impact negatively on their bottom line, then of course they will. It would be more of a surprise if they didn't, wouldn't it?

Funnily enough, I heard an interview with a bigwig from Ladbrokes on Radio Five this morning as I was driving into work. The discussion was centred around preventing illegal gambling associated with this summer's Olympics, but during the interview, the Ladbrokes chappie (whose name I didn't quite catch) was talking about how they utilise sophisticated software that enables them to very quickly pick up on suspicious betting patterns. You know, the more you think about it, the more likely it seems that 'Insider's' assertions on the use of technology within the larger bookmaker firms to track and monitor clients' accounts closely, are spot on the money.


Right, I promised yesterday that I'd explain how I go about placing my bets, keeping the stakes as low as possible in an attempt to avoid gaining the attention of those dreaded traders. There is nothing clever in what I do and I'm sure you'll read it and think "And...". Many of you will probably think of a phrase that includes the words Granny, sucking, and eggs. But, my Bet365 account has lasted three years, and touch wood, my Hills, Ladbrokes, BetInternet, and Totesport accounts remain fully functional. Paddy Power has just a very small (and thus far insignificant) restriction imposed upon it, and I've even been able to keep a second BetFred and Boylesports account open for going on a year now. These are all BOG bookmakers you'll note (although Totesport don't do BOG on all races).

The systematic approach is simple. Wherever possible, I split my stake between two bookmakers (providing there are at least two that are offering the best price) and I keep a weekly tally of how many bets I have placed with each bookmaker. Therefore, if say Ladbrokes, Hills and BetFred offer the best price on a horse, and so far this week I've had one bet with Fred, two with Hills, and three with Ladbrokes, I'll split my stake in two, placing half with Fred and half with Hills.

And there we have it. Nothing groundbreaking there, is there? It's just a case of notching a mark on a list of BOG bookies each time you have a bet, so you can see where the money's going. If only one bookmaker has a standout price, I will place the whole stake with that one bookmaker, up to a maximum of £50. The advantage of doing this - hypothetically - is that there is a wide range in terms of size of stake used with each bookmaker, which will hopefully distort patterns that can be identified by those looking for them. So one bet might be £50, another as little as £5, with the majority being between £10 and £25.

Does this help prolong the lifespan of accounts? Who knows, but it seems to have worked for me for a wee while now. Obviously there comes a time, as with Bet365 last week, where it is inevitable you're going to be rumbled. We have to accept that inevitability I think, and do what we can to put off that outcome for as long as possible. This is the best way I can see of doing just that.


OK, back to the comments, and one I really want to highlight is that left by Skeeve last Friday. Now here's a chap who places sizeable bets, not only on his own selections, but also on those of other services that he follows. So if anyone is qualified to comment on this subject, it is he.

Skeeve said:

"Sorry to hear about your Bet365 account. I have no idea how, but I still haven't been restricted there and it's not like I'm losing money with them - I'm actually staking four-digit amounts on doubles, 1X2 and asian handicaps without being referred to traders and I took tens of thousands of euros from them in the last couple of years alone. I'm sure a couple of things helped though - I've never tried to stake an amount that needs further authorisation and I've never placed a horce racing bet in my life. I don't know, maybe they want to keep the market movers under their wing to help them adjust their odds - I've seen an interview with one of Pinnacle's senior traders lately and he said his company likes long-term winners because they help them adjust their odds - and get rid of followers of paying services, but I'm a follower of other services as well and I can still stake huge amounts on, for example, Matt's FE bets (not that they usually offer the best price, but it happens from time to time). Lots of question marks and it's obvious Bet365 are far from Pinnacle or SBO when it comes to welcoming smart punters, but at least they've not hit the fair-play rock bottom like StanJames, VictorChandler and, unfortunately, many many others. I hope the likes of Pinnacle and SBO enter the horce racing market sooner rather than later."

Now there are a couple of things there that really caught my eye. The words "four-digit figures" for a start. Now this confirms one thing to me that I have long suspected...that it is much easier getting larger amounts into the football markets than it is the horse racing markets.

What Skeeve says about Pinnacle is also fascinating. Now from what I believe, Pinnacle is one of the bookies who will take stakes from the likes of Asian syndicates that dwarf the size of bets that our high street bookmakers will ever accept. That they use successful punters to their advantage is a lesson that some UK bookmakers would do well to learn from, although I sadly fear the likelihood of them doing so is rather slim.

Reading the last two paragraphs though, it seems to be increasingly clear where the future lies...football betting. Now that's not to say that horse racing should be completely dismissed as a betting medium. I'm not throwing the towel in just yet (perhaps the towel that was going to be used to dry the baby in the bath water because I ain't throwing that out either!). But I do think that it is an inescapable fact of life that in the future, there is going to have to be a shift in balance within the portfolio towards "sports" betting and away from "horse racing" betting. This is not ideal as such a shift naturally kicks up issues of diversity (which is such an important factor in portfolio investing but is a subject in itself deserving of proper attention at a later date). What is good to know though, is that even facing full account restrictions/closures, there are avenues for successful investors to explore. There is a way around the barriers the UK bookmakers put in our way.


That's enough for tonight, but Mike of the SBC left an interesting comment after last night's post that merits further attention, along with some other comments that have been left too.

'Til tomorrow.


Today's Betting

One of those days on the racing where almost everything goes right. Five horses backed and only a short head prevented the tips providing five winners. Firstly, The Market Examiner tipped a stonker (Sea Saffron - Exeter - 8.2/1). The only issue here was Sam's observation that at the time the bet was placed by BetButler (at 8.2/1), 10/1 was still available with a couple of bookmakers and 9s elsewhere. This is the sort of thing that BetButler need to get right if they are to prove to be a viable option long term.

It was great to see On The Nose back tipping at Cheltenham last week after a recent self-imposed break, and they provided a nice winner today (Darna - Exeter - 7/2). The Sportsman Racing gave two facile winners from two (Trans Sonic - Southwell - 8/11 and First In Command - Southwell - 11/8). Finally, Chasemaster almost had a winner from their one selection (Bubbly Bruce - Exeter - 11/2). Just shaded in a photo, but no harm done as it was advised each way.

Onto the footie this evening and a small profit secured. The Football Analyst System 7/22 found one winner from three for a small loss. Swindon were the winner, which was pleasing, as Swindon were also the team found by Strike Zone (homes).

On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, +1.75pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, +1.051pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +0.012pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +8.2pts.

The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 4pts, -0.425pts.
Strike Zone (homes): Staked 1pt, +0.76pts.

(*It should also be noted that Strike Zone (homes) had a short priced winner (Roma at 1.5) last night; I managed to forget to post this last night).


Month to Date


Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 19.75pts, -7.55pts, roi -38.23%
4PA: Staked 43.5pts, -3.312pts, roi -7.61%
Chasemaster: Staked 5.75pts, +2.503pts, roi 43.53%
WRT: Staked 7.5pts, +0.827pts, roi 11.02%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 4.25pts, +1.363pts, roi 32.07%
On The Nose: Staked 20.25pts, +0.75pts, roi 3.7%
The Market Examiner: Staked 25pts, +10.755pts, roi 43.02%

Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 14pts, +5.485pts, roi 39.17%
Skeeve: Staked 47pts, +8.369pts, roi 17.8%
Football Elite: Staked 11pts, +6.445pts, roi 58.59%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts, roi 12.5%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 11pts, -3.3pts, -30%


Now, it's likely to be a late post tomorrow. My evening is likely going to be spent chasing a grainy stream into which I will peer, trying to make out where the ball is and getting increasingly frustrated by it constantly freezing. Up the Gunners!

Monday 19 March 2012

Theme of the week: bookmaker restrictions

Judging by the number of comments left after my blatherings posted last Thursday and Friday, it appears that bookmaker restrictions, what can lead to them being imposed, and how to avoid them for as long as possible, together make up a subject area which is at the forefront of many investment gamblers' minds. No real surprise there, I guess.

There have been some very interesting points made by various people, all of which merit some attention being paid to them and perhaps some ongoing discussion. Let's face it, all of us who approach our gambling in an organised and serious manner are going to have to cope with the bookmakers not playing ball at some stage. We need a strategy; a plan as it were, for without one then ultimately our investment vehicle will come to a shuddering halt. And that won't do at all, will it?

This week I want to explore this subject further. The thing is, I'm still on the part of the gambling learning curve that is on a trajectory heading in an upwards direction. So I can explain what I do as far as attempting to ensure that bookmaker accounts remain functional for as long as possible, and I can tell you my longer term plans/strategy that will hopefully allow me to invest in gambling services over the long term, but I'm sure there are many who have been through all this before and have the benefit of experience behind them. If there are any readers who fall into this category, their contributions in the 'Comments' section are warmly welcomed. Let's face it, it's us against the bookmakers, and any ideas that can help us all to gain an upperhand in the ongoing battle will benefit us all.

So, without further ado, let us address the comment left by an intriguing contributor, a bookmaker 'insider'...

"It is pretty easy to determine when the user has placed bets on market high odds and when you see that has happened 10 out of 10 times then it actually doesn't matter if the account is in +/-."

This goes back to my surprise at Bet365 having confirmed to me that their traders do not necessarily look at the profitability or otherwise of an account before imposing restrictions upon it. It is a commonly held belief that if a bookmaker sees a client consistently securing the best price ("market high odds") available on a horse, or who is continually beating the SP by securing an early price offer, then they will soon stop that punter from punting. The 'Insider' here is confirming that this is indeed true. My question though, which only someone who has worked for a bookmaker is going to be able to answer, is how do they monitor this? Bet365 must have a LOT of customers with a LOT of accounts to scrutinize. I assume such monitoring will be software driven; is it the case that all accounts are monitored to see if their owners are ensuring that the prices taken are always the best available in the market? Is this the default setting? If it is, then we as investors have a big problem, because my belief is that it is absolutely imperative to secure the best price possible at all times. It is difficult enough in this game to gain a worthwhile edge, without giving away a couple of percentages of roi by taking lower odds than we are able. And yes, I accept that we can't always get bets on straight away, and that there are some services that issues a selection and within seconds the price on that selection has crashed, but as a general rule, we need to be securing the best possible price we can on each individual bet.

What I would say, is that if Bet365 have used the parameters mentioned above to assess my account, it's taken three years of my taking "market high" prices and of consistently beating SP before they have cottoned on and taken action to restrict my ability to profiteer to their expense.

Is it possible then, that by taking steps to ensure that my average stake size per bet is kept fairly low (on average £10-20 on one particular horse) I have managed to stay 'under the radar' for three years? If so, then I am somewhat heartened, as that would mean that by simply adopting a systematic approach to using our bookmaker accounts, we can prolong their lifespan.

Tomorrow I'll outline the systematic approach I take to placing my bets which is indeed aimed at keeping stake sizes as low as possible, and is also designed to spread my bets amongst the different bookmakers as evenly as they can be. I also want to pass on some thoughts based around a couple of the other comments that were left on Thursday and Friday, notably from Skeeve. I found solace within Skeeve's words, for within them he gave me a big clue that my long term plan - the direction in which I envisage my portfolio investing is going to have to go to remain a viable investment option - has legs.

More on all that tomorrow.


Weekend's Betting

Not a great weekend on the horses, truth be told, although Chasemaster turned a nice profit on the Sunday virtue of a nice winner at Newton Abbott (Maizy Missile - 8/1). That was the only winner of the weekend though, as 4PA drew a blank, as did The Market Examiner, and Winning Racing Tips had a loser and an each way double that provided only a minimal return. On The Nose can count themselves unfortunate on Saturday as their selection in the Midlands National (Major Malarkey - Uttoxeter - 18/1) came within a couple of feet of a very nice return.

Things were better on the football, with a nicely solid performance by Skeeve. Football Elite found one winner from two, The Sportsman's handicap bet returned stakes, and Strike Zone (homes) had a short priced winner from two selections for a small loss.

4PA: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -0.75pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, +0.45pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, -0.581pts.

Skeeve: Staked 14pts, +6.389pts.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, +0.187pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, N/A.
Strike Zone (h): Staked 2pts, -0.45pts.


Today's Betting


Seems so quiet after the chaos that was Cheltenham.

Chasemaster continued their good form. Just one selection (That's The Deal - Southwell - 2/1) - an easy winner.

The only other racing service in action today was Northern Monkey but no return from their one bet today.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.125pts, +0.25pts.


Month to Date


Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 19.75pts, -7.55pts, roi -38.23%
4PA: Staked 43.5pts, -3.312pts, roi -7.61%
Chasemaster: Staked 5.5pts, +2.49pts, roi 45.28%
WRT: Staked 7.5pts, +0.827pts, roi 11.02%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3.25pts, +0.312pts, roi 9.6%
On The Nose: Staked 19.75pts, -1pt, roi -5.06%
The Market Examiner: Staked 24pts, +2.555pts, roi 10.64%

Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 10pts, +5.91pts, roi 59.1%
Skeeve: Staked 47pts, +8.369pts, roi 17.8%
Football Elite: Staked 11pts, +6.445pts, roi 58.59%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts, roi 12.5%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 9pts, -4.553pts, -50.58%


Goodness. That's a rather lengthy post with which to start the week. Trouble is, I think there's a lot more to come. See you tomorrow.

Sunday 18 March 2012

Mum's Sunday and all that...

....means I'm going to be out this evening and unable to post, so next update will be tomorrow.

Great to see some interesting comments left about bookie restrictions. Gives some material to get stuck into next week! :)

Friday 16 March 2012

Bet 365 - A Conversation

Further to my post yesterday, here is the transcript of a conversation between myself and a Bet 365 customer services representative, conducted over their 'live chat' facility...

Rowan Hi. I received a message that today B365 have decided to impose restrictions on my account.

Karl D Can I take your username and four digit security number please?

Rowan ********. Not sure of security code...possibly ****.

Karl D Thank you.

Rowan Can you please tell me my overall profit and loss balance on this account since it was opened?

Karl D The information regarding profit and loss can be reviewed via your account history online.

Rowan Are you sure - how do I do that? It will only give me details on bets placed within the last six months.

Karl D One moment please.

Karl D You can adjust the time ranges to locate further than 6 months.

Karl D The largest time that you can search in one time is 6 months though.

Rowan So how do I go beyond the last six months? As soon as I input a date prior to six months ago, I get an error message.

Karl D Once you enter your start date, don't click on search but change the end date. Then you will be able to search your required date range.

Karl D We have not heard from you. Do you wish to continue the chat?

Rowan Right ok - but you don't have a figure there in front of you? Am I right in thinking a decision has been made on my account then, without you actually being aware of whether I am making money or not?

Karl D I do not have a profit/loss figure for the account.

Rowan Do the traders?

Karl D In order to obtain a profit/loss for your account you will need to review your account history for the required time period.

Rowan That doesn't answer my question. Do the traders have an overall profit/loss figure?

Karl D I do not have the profit and loss available to myself however, the account may have been reviewed on betting patterns and not the profit/loss of an account.

Rowan So the traders may have restricted my account despite the possibility it is a losing account. That is what you are saying?

Karl D That is correct.



...at which point I terminated the 'call'.

The interesting part of this is at the bottom there. A frank admission, admittedly a rather forced one, that an account does not necessarily need to be profitable for a decision to be made to impose restrictions upon it. I suppose we already knew this, but to have it confirmed like that still surprised me.

Anyway, it's time to move on. My restrictions on this account are that I'm only allowed to win £30 from any individual bet on horse racing, £100 on football, and a whopping £10 on darts!

What I have done is discover a dormant Bet 365 account that was opened in 2007 but had never been used. I successfully updated bank card details, deposited some money, placed a couple of bets and had a nice 11/2 winner (thanks Peter at Chasemaster!) with it today. I see this as an experiment. I don't hold out much hope of the account lasting particularly long, but it will be interesting to see just how long. I'll keep you posted.

In the meantime we just have to continue gritting our teeth whilst various smarmy bookmaker reps come onto Channel 4 Racing with details of their special offers, making out like they give a shit about the punter. Honestly, the spin-king that is Fred Done saying on the 'Morning Line' today that "We'll take a bet. It's what I do", nearly had me sticking my foot through the telly! You didn't take many from me, son, before closing my account.


Right - not such a good day today. Gave a bit back to the bookies but still well up at Cheltenham for the week. Chasemaster helped reduce the losses everybody else made at the Festival with a very easy winner (Silver Adonis - Fakenham - 11/2). I say everybody else...Northern Monkey made a couple of points having tipped Synchronised antepost at 14s for the Gold Cup, and getting a couple of bets to place. Trouble is, the way the staking is and with 4PA having a blowout, this wasn't enough to prevent a pretty poor final day.

I'll post up the results over the weekend. Right now, I'm bet weary - too many bets placed in too short a timeframe and tbh, I'm knackered. Going to have some tea, watch a film with the kids, and go to bed. It's been a long week.

Laters.

Thursday 15 March 2012

A blow!

Well, it's been a very good third day to the Festival, but the edge has been taken off the excitement somewhat. I received a message from Bet365 this evening, the first paragraph of which read:

"Following a review of your account, we regret to inform you that we are no longer able to offer you our telephone betting service and whilst our online service remains available to you, betting restrictions will be applied on any future bets placed."


I have to admit that this has come as a bit of a blow. Sure, account restrictions are nothing new to me. Victor Chandler have shut me down twice, Stan James refuse to take a bet. BetFred and Boylesports have shut me down previously too. But anybody who takes their gambling even a tiny bit seriously will expect such excuses-for-bookmakers taking such action. With these members of the Hall of Shame, being restricted or shut down completely is simply a rite of passage.

But there have been a small number of firms that I have considered to be my "go to" bookies. Along with Ladbrokes and William Hill, I counted Bet365 as being one of them. Until today.

It could be argued that my accounts have lasted longer than could be reasonably expected. By splitting all bets I place between two bookmakers and by ensuring that I never stake more than £50 on any one bet with any one bookmaker, I do believe I have stayed largely under the radar. The majority of my bets are staked between £10 and £25, figures that I hoped would lead the various firms to regard me as small fry. Obviously not small enough for Bet365.

So what are the consequences? Well, in the short term, it means that the accounts that remain unrestricted come under increasing pressure, which is obviously far from ideal. I can try to relieve that pressure by opening another Bet365 account in my wife's name, I suppose. This tactic has worked with another well-known bookmaker but it doesn't half leave you vulnerable. I can use my wife's maiden name (under which she still has a bank account) and I can link this to her mother's address, but if it is true that the bookmakers track IP addresses and can link accounts this way, I'm screwed. Most of the time, my bets are placed from my place of work. I can't disguise the IP address there.

No, there are longer term effects of what has happened today; this is possibly the beginning of the end of my betting on horse racing. At the very least, it may well mean that the amount of money I can bet on racing is drastically reduced. Perhaps the only racing services I can follow in the future are those that tend to back at predominantly short prices. Mind you, The Sportsman Racing and Personal Info are the only two I can think of that can be listed within this category.

I've mentioned it before, but I actually think that I have to start thinking about changing my portfolio in such a way that I can avoid account restrictions/closures full stop. Let's face it, even if my other accounts I use for racing remain functional for a while longer, and even if I open new accounts in the names of various family members, I'm merely delaying the inevitable. This problem isn't going to go away, so I need a plan of action that provides a viable alternative.

I'll talk more about my plans next week. Stay tuned.


Today's Betting

What happened with Bet365 is a shame, as it had been another very good day.

4PA
was the star of the day, although a stupid mistake made by your's truly cost me a point. That mistake was backing Carlito Brigante antepost for the World Hurdle at a bookmaker that didn't provide Non Runner No Bet terms. Rookie error!

The winners 4PA did come up with though were Riverside Theatre - backed antepost at 10/1, Voler La Vedette which was backed antepost for the World Hurdle in the "Without Big Buck's" market (8/1), and Sunnyhill Boy in the Fulke Walwyn Memorial Handicap at 7/1.

Talking of Big Buck's, The Sportsman had put it up back in November at 4/5 (NRNB terms), although I have recorded the results under The Sportsman Racing figures (0.25pts for The Sportsman equates to 1pt for The Sportsman Racing). So seeing Big Buck's win and Voler La Vedette come second was just about the perfect result!

Northern Monkey
gained a return from an each way bet on Champion Court in the opener (8/1) and also gave the winner, Sir Des Champs as a saver (4/1). They also had Becauseicouldn't see at 12s each way, who was second to Sunnyhill Boy.

No joy for On The Nose at the Festival today.

Away from Cheltenham, no luck at all for Chasemaster (who I thought were very unlucky with a 14/1 shot in the 4m chase that was going by far the best and in the lead before falling about a mile out), and Winning Racing Tips picked up a few pennies when their selection finished in the frame (One More Cookie - Towcester - 11/2). No returns for The Market Examiner.

Finally, to round it all off, a nice win on the darts tonight from On The Oche.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
4PA: Staked 9pts, +10.75pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, +0.8pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, +0.04pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.

On The Oche: Staked 1pt, +1.25pts.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 14.55pts, -8.495pts, roi -58.38%
4PA: Staked 33.5pts, +6.687pts, roi 19.96%
Chasemaster: Staked 4.125pts, +0.931pts, roi 22.57%
WRT: Staked 4.9pts, +2.808pts, roi 57.31%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.562pts, roi 18.73%
On The Nose: Staked 12pts, +4pts, roi 33.33%
The Market Examiner: Staked 19pts, +7.555pts, roi 39.76%


Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 10pts, +5.91pts, roi 59.1%
Skeeve: Staked 33pts, +1.98pts, roi 6%
Football Elite: Staked 9pts, +6.257pts, roi 69.52%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.35pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts, roi 12.5%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 7pts, -4.103pts, -58.61%

Wednesday 14 March 2012

Cheltenham - Day 2

Don't mind admitting, I'm really nervous about today's betting. Things went a little bit too well yesterday. The logical part of my brain too, is telling me that when the racing is so competitive, and when the day starts in negative territory due to a couple of horses backed antepost not making it to their respective races, it could be an uphill battle.

Let's see what transpires. What I can say with some confidence is that if 4PA have a good day, then so should I. Here's hoping.


1.30: 4m Amateur Riders' National Hunt Chase

Just the one bet in the opener, Alfie Spinner, put up by On The Nose. Ultimately unsuccessful, but not before the horse gave a good run for the money, jumping well and racing prominently before not quite being able to go with the leading four or five from the bottom of the hill.


2.05: Neptune Novices' Hurdle

Well, I mentioned the importance of 4PA to today's chances of success, and this was the first race in which they played. Monksland was issued this morning and ran a decent race to finish third, but never really threatened to win. Monksland had been a small antepost bet issued by Northern Monkey too, each way at 8/1 so a small return there.

Simonsig however, backed antepost at 7/2, was extremely impressive and won very easily. He was helped considerably two out when the horse he was ranging alongside ducked out and jettisoned his jockey into the rails (how brave are these guys!?!). It's true that both horses were going well at the time but to my, admittedly untutored eye, Simonsig looked to be going slightly the better.

So a good start for 4PA. It's the next race that worries me though. Get through this one without too much damage, and I'll begin to put my anxiety down to pre-match nerves.


2.40: RSA Chase

Bollocks! I just knew it. I had a nasty feeling this race was going to bite me on the arse and it did just that!

Firstly, the horses I'd backed antepost that didn't make the race: 4PA gave Silvianico Conti and Northern Monkey had given Invictus. So down before we started.

Both On The Nose and Northern Monkey had Lambro antepost at 25s and 20s, but that one never threatened to find the frame.

4PA
had also given First Lieutenant antepost, a win only bet at 9s, and went big this morning on Grand Crus. Grand Crus ran a very disappointing race and First Lieutenant, running keen for the first half of the race, jumped the last alongside the eventual winner but perhaps having taken a little too much out himself, couldn't get up and finished second.

Much like the Champion Hurdle yesterday, this has proven to be a very expensive race. The only thing I'm impressed by are my skills in clairvoyance. Saw this one coming from a mile away.


3.20: Queen Mother Champion Chase


Well, that's the way to bounce back. Just the one bet in the race, Winning Racing Tips giving Finian's Rainbow at 6/1. Nice.

So that's Hurricane Fly, Grand Crus, and now Sizing Europe beaten, all at short prices and considered by many to be invincible this year. Makes me worry about Big Buck's who is running tomorrow and upon whom I have a sizeable antepost bet.

Heh. There I go again, being all negative.


4.00: Coral Cup

A complete minefield of a race and although taking a small loss, it feels like it's been a bit of an escape.

Northern Monkey had a small bet on First Fandango which, at a fancy price, ran very prominently for the first half of the race before fading.

On The Nose gave Act Of Kalinisi, which I thought had a decent chance about a mile out, but unfortunately he couldn't maintain his challenge.

4PA had two, one of which finished second - Getmeoutofhere at 9/1 to provide something of a return and did succeed in helping to control losses on the race. The other, Silverhand, actually finished fourth at 25/1 but unfortunately was tipped win only.

Coming to the (partial) rescue though, was The Market Examiner. Unusually the bet given was advised each way and amounted to a reduced quarter point, but Son Of Flicka proved to be the gamble of the day and early odds of 22/1 were landed.


So, after all that has happened so far, I'm in deficit to the tune of about £2 so far! One more race to play in at Cheltenham today although Northern Monkey does have an outsider running at Kempton this evening.


4.40: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

And not a good finale with no returns at all.

4PA had Gorgeous Sixty which never got into it and Vendor win only which stayed on to finish third after seemingly being outpaced earlier in the race.

On The Nose also gave Vendor, but also had Lemon Drop Red at a big price. This one was second much of the way around but couldn't last home to place.


So a loss on the second day at Cheltenham, but a loss which amounts to less than a third of yesterday's profits so can't complain. Always felt today was going to be tough and to be honest I'm thinking it could have been a lot worse. It is slightly ironic that the two races that have really cost me - the Champion Hurdle and RSA Chase - looked before the Festival to be two of the more solvable contests. Just goes to show, eh?

I'm aware that this narrative might not to be to everybody's liking and I may not do this tomorrow. The aim was to give an impression of the highs and lows but to be completely honest, I've not really felt either elated or dejected so far, and therefore the writing comes across as being a little flat. I read my posts from last year's Festival this morning, and I was reminded about how difficult I found things last year. I really did go through the mill emotionally twelve months ago and at the time I noted that I needed to change things within my portfolio to achieve two aims. One, to avoid having such a ridiculous level of correlation within a lot of the races (ie. backing five or six different horses within the same race on a frequent basis), and two - by consequence - to reduce my stress levels.

Well, those changes have been made and the desired results achieved. I've been able to keep far more level headed this year, and only on one occasion (in today's Coral Cup) have I had more horses than seems reasonable in just the one race. I suppose there were too many selections in the Arkle yesterday, but the stakes in this race were relatively low and certainly not high enough to shake me out of my comfort zone. I do believe that on a personal level, this does demonstrate progress, and I'm rather pleased to be able to say that. Doesn't necessarily make for interesting blogging though.


4PA: Staked 9pts, -2.875pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.46pts, -1.71pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.5pts, +1.875pts.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 12.55pts, -8.995pts, roi -71.67%
4PA: Staked 24.5pts, -4.062pts, roi -16.58%
Chasemaster: Staked 3.375pts, +1.681pts, roi 49.81%
WRT: Staked 4.1pts, +2.768pts, roi 67.52%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, -0.237pts, roi -11.89%
On The Nose: Staked 8.5pts, +7.5pts, roi 88.23%
The Market Examiner: Staked 17.5pts, +9.055pts, roi 51.74%


Sports
TFA 7/22: Staked 10pts, +5.91pts, roi 59.1%
Skeeve: Staked 33pts, +1.98pts, roi 6%
Football Elite: Staked 9pts, +6.257pts, roi 69.52%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.35pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 7pts, -4.103pts, -58.61%

Tuesday 13 March 2012

Cheltenham - Day 1

Thought I'd do what I did last year and blog race by race. Hopefully get a feeling for the ups (hopefully) and downs (inevitably) over the next four days.

1.30: Supreme Novices' Hurdle

Well, well, well. Who'd a thunk it? A winner in the first.

On The Nose tipped Cinders And Ashes a month or so ago at 12/1, and despite being weak in the pre-race market it stormed up the Cheltenham hill like a good'un. Dean also gave Galileo's Choice, as did 4PA this morning and despite running a solid race, this one never really threatened to get too involved. Still, not to worry. I've known worst starts to the Festival (like the first three days, last year!). Wouldn't it be nice to get on a roll!?!



2.05: The Arkle


How impressive was Sprinter Sacre? Next year's Champion Chase winner in my eyes.

Northern Monkey had fired in bets for this race like there was no tomorrow, and fortunately they included Sprinter Sacre. A losing race overall though, primarily because of the dreadful mistake Al Ferof made down the back straight which completely knocked the wind out of him and he was never travelling from that moment, which was a shame as the profit and loss on the race would have been much better had it finished second to SS.

Still, far from a disaster financially and still up after the first two races.


2.40: JLT Specialty Chase

Oh yes. Oh yes, yes, yes!!!!

4PA: Alfie Sherrin to win. 20/1.

The big bet was on The Package each way (4PA and antepost for Northern Monkey) and the fact that it finished fourth means that the winnings from Alfie Sherrin were protected.

I thought The Package the likely winner entering the straight. Going well and having made up a lot of ground, I was at the very least highly optimistic for the place. Jumping the last though it seemed to run out of steam, but coming from out of the clouds was Alfie Sherrin who bravely kept on to the line to land the spoils. In all honesty, I only noticed it as it approached the last!

The only disappointment in the race was Tullamore Dew (On The Nose) who was never competitive.

Quite frankly, who cares?


Now, things are going rather too smoothly. If we can just avoid a shock result in the Champion Hurdle, it will have been a good day on the nags...



3.20: Champion Hurdle


Oh.

Well isn't that just so typical of this game we play? Feeling unbeatable after the 2.40, you feel a chump after the 3.20. Betting on horses really can crumble your Hobnobs, can't it?

4PA went big, both antepost and this morning, on Hurricane Fly and Binocular. I thought the warning signs were there for The Fly pre-race when it got really warm and sweaty, and when push came to shove in the race itself, it wasn't able to find it's customary kick. The same could very much be said for Binocular, who was also the each way tip for Winning Racing Tips and Northern Monkey, so that one finishing fourth was a right old kick in the nadgers too.

Northern Monkey did cover the winner, Rock On Ruby, but only to a minimal stake as a saver. :(

Still. Let's not be too disheartened. Still nicely up on the day.


4.00: Cross Country Chase


Goodness me! Another winner!

Step forward to claim all the plaudits - On The Nose. One bet in this race, Balthazar King - 12/1. Never dropped out of the first two all the way around this ridiculous, near four mile course, and battled on gamely up the climb to win by a head.


5.15: Novices Handicap Chase


After all the excitement, a bit of a damp squib of a finale. Three horses and no returns. On The Nose went for Triolo Dalene and Saint Are, and Northern Monkey had Harpsy Cord, but none of them ever really looked like producing the goods.

No complaints. The first day of Cheltenham hasn't been at all bad. It should be noted that I did benefit from a real stroke of luck. Either the unsuccessful antepost bets that 4PA issued for the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle were sent out in the small gap between my subs running out and my rejoining, or I simply missed them. Either way, it saved me a couple of points.


One other thing of note. Away from Cheltenham, The Market Examiner had a nice winner (Dr Flynn - Sedgefield - 5.2/1).


Northern Monkey: Staked 3.87pts, -1.515pts.
4PA: Staked 8pts, +5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 4.5pts, +11.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2.5pts, +3.7pts.


And so onto tonight's football, in which The Football Analyst 7/22 had two bets, one of which (Tranmere - 11/10) was a home winner for an overall profit. Strike Zone (homes) had a loser, and The Sportsman had a winning corners bet in the Bayern Munich/Basle Champions' League match.

The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 3pts, +1.2pts
Strike Zone (homes): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.2pts, +0.15pts.


Month to Date

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 10.09pts, -7.285pts, roi -72.2%
4PA: Staked 15.5pts, -1.187pts, roi -7.66%
Chasemaster: Staked 3.375pts, +1.681pts, roi 49.81%
WRT: Staked 3.6pts, +0.893pts, roi 24.81%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, -0.237pts, roi -11.89%
On The Nose: Staked 4.5pts, +11.5pts, roi 255.55%
The Market Examiner: Staked 17pts, +2.18pts, roi 12.82%


Sports

TFA 7/22: Staked 10pts, +5.91pts, roi 59.1%
Skeeve: Staked 33pts, +1.98pts, roi 6%
Football Elite: Staked 9pts, +6.257pts, roi 69.52%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.35pts, 0pts, roi 0%
On The Oche: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Strike Zone (h): Staked 7pts, -4.103pts, -58.61%


Things have gone very well today, and over the last week, some very good profits have been made. I can't help thinking that it is all going a little bit too swimmingly and it can't last. I anticipate a tough day or two, and with the competitive nature of the racing this week, I wouldn't be that surprised if one arrives tomorrow.

We'll see.

Monday 12 March 2012

Football Elite

I mentioned yesterday that the star of March to date had been Matt of Football Elite. His recent run of good form has elevated the returns from the service this season to the brink of a 10% return on investment, a figure which marks out a top football tipping service.

It just goes to show the levels of patience sometimes needed to play this game successfully. 2011 was not a vintage year for FE. It got off to a horror start and never really recovered, seemingly playing a constant game of catch up. Now though, it seems that Matt is on the way to recovering his mojo and, with antepost bets at decent prices looking more likely than not to provide some good profits come season end, this season could well turn out to be pretty decent.

Of course the nature of gambling means that Matt is only a poor weekend or two from being knocked straight back into the doldrums again, but all things being equal, we should be looking at a semi-decent season. And credit to Matt for putting us in the position where that is the case.


As far as today's betting is concerned, well, there wasn't any. Not one bet for me to place. A couple for The Market Examiner who had no joy from their two selections.

The Market Examiner: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.

Will be a bit different tomorrow.

Sunday 11 March 2012

Home again!

You know it never quite felt right. A Punter's Year? What was that all about?

Nope, it wasn't right, but now we're home again. This is the blogging equivalent of coming back from holiday, weary after a crack of dawn start to catch the early flight, a seat on the 'plane next to a screaming baby, waiting an age for the suitcases to come through on the carousel, and then getting stuck in a traffic jam for an hour or two in the taxi from the airport. But we're back home now. Time to pour a glass of red, sink into the favourite armchair, put the feet up and stick the footie on the telly. Ahh.

Mind you, it's going to cost me readers isn't it? All those blogs that were kind enough to stick up a link to A Punter's Year? Well they're not going to be too chuffed with me, are they? All I can say chaps, is that if you're reading this, have a heart. Us bloggers must stick together. Aye. You know what you must do, chaps. Don't just change the link...write a special commemorative post. Shout it from the blogging rooftops, The Portfolio Investor is back!!! Vive la Revolution!

Ahem. Perhaps time to just get on with it, eh? I think that's quite enough rhetoric.

So what's been happening since Friday?

I shall go through service by service. Probably easier that way, and when you're as one-dimensional as I am, simple is good. I am very much the Stupid in Keep It Simple Stupid. You ask my wife. Or kids - they're telling me so all the time and the two of them can't both be wrong, can they?

Northern Monkey
Only the two bets, both of them yesterday. Unfortunately neither were able to find the frame. Got a fair few Cheltenham bets coming up though. Fingers crossed for those.

Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
Month To Date: Staked 6.25pts, -5.77pts, roi -92.76%.


4PA
Talking of Cheltenham bets, 4PA has been going mad! Mad I tell you! Good job I've recorded all the antepost bets as they were struck - I honestly can't remember what I've backed because quite frankly, the sheer number of bets makes my head hurt. Gonna be a big week for 4PA. Was last year if I remember and things didn't go so well until a glorious Friday when Zarkander and Long Run did the biz and pulled it all around.

4PA have played a bit of a blinder this weekend, quite superbly ensuring that they are due a good week by losing a few points yesterday when it doesn't really matter. A bit like fielding your reserves in the Carling Cup and losing in the third round because, let's be honest shall we...the Carling Cup? Pfft.

Staked 5pts, -3.687pts.

MTD: Staked 7.5pts, -6.187pts, roi -82.49%


Chasemaster
A fine three days for Peter and the Boys (which sounds like a eighties boy band), especially Friday (Rumbrey Grey - Leicester - 14/1 and Noble Witness - Leicester - 7/2). A small loss yesterday from their three bets although far from a disaster as there was a nice placed return (Rossini's Dancer - Ayr - 9/1), and then a very nice saunter back to the winner's enclosure today (Sycho Fred - Market Rasen - 6/1).

So the rather impressive three day figures are...

Staked 2.375pts, +2.131pts.
MTD: Staked 3.375pts, +1.681pts, roi 49.81%

Oh, and Peter. Time to man up with that cold - it's Cheltenham week! You don't want to be sitting suffering whilst all that's going on you know. I suggest lashings of fine brandy.


The Market Examiner
A rather fine winner yesterday for TME (Dovers Hill - Sandown - 6.96/1) for an overall small loss.

Staked 5pts, -1.02pts
MTD: Staked 14.5pts, -1.52pts, roi -10.48%


So that's the racing. Now onto the footie, and with Graeme at The Football Analyst playing funny buggers with not having any System 7/22 qualifiers (I mean, what is a man to do of a weekend without his 7/22s!?!), it was over to others to produce some profit, and what a mighty fine job they did of it too...


Skeeve
Now there's a chap called Skeeve who I know, when things aren't quite going to plan, as sure as eggs are eggs, is going to put one heck of a stint of hard work into making sure that things right themselves. After the dust had settled on a disappointing weekend or two, I thought to myself that that Skeeve, he's not going to be sleeping much this week. Oh no, there's going to be one industrial sized vat of midnight oil burnt over the next few days I thought, in Skeeve's quest to produce a profitable weekend. Well, it was all worth it. A good winner on Friday night, two good winners yesterday afternoon. Three from three and thankyou very much Sir.

Staked 12pts, +10.46pts.
MTD: Staked 33pts, +1.98pts, roi 6%


Football Elite
Star of March so far? Matt of Football Elite. The busiest weekend for a long time for FE. Six bets running from Friday night, and four lovely winners. I'm not going to mention the teams because I know Matt follows the teams closely and so they may well come up again, but I thought a couple of the selections were top class and far from obvious. Nice to see.

Staked 6pts, +4.55pts.
MTD: Staked 9pts, +6.257pts, roi 69.52%


And so there we have it (I quite like this format for the results - what do you think?). Just a Strike Zone selection to come tonight and that'll be it for the weekend. And what a very nicely profitable three days it's been. Which is a relief really, because the one thing we don't want is a blowout weekend going into Cheltenham week.

On the Cheltenham note, I hope to be tweeting as events unfold. So if you want some fantastically witty tweety entertainment, follow @rowanday (you can see how witty it's likely to be from the imaginatively named Twitter handle can't you?).

And that's that.

A Punter's Year? What was I thinking?