Chester!?!

Just the usual Friday round-up tonight. I will try to perhaps update results only over the weekend. Having said that I'm playing cricket in Chester tomorrow (Chester! That's flamin' miles away!!!) so might not be back until late. Let's see how it goes.

Thursday's Betting

I feel I'm limping over the line rather, as far as this month is concerned. Yesterday was the fourth consecutive day that a loss was posted, and although none of the deficits has been of a concerning size (double digit only), I'd be lying if I didn't say that it is just taking the edge off what has been a good month. Not to worry though, eh?

On The Nose
Just one bet from The Judge. In the write-up it was noted that the pre-race market will speak volumes. I guess it did as the beast drifted from 11/1 to 22/1 before running a race that left the impression that perhaps the tank wasn't exactly emptied in a frenzied attempt at victory.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts

Service X
One (half) winner from four! Pfft.
Staked 11pts, -7.055pts

Form Lab Lite
No joy here with two from two losing.
Staked 2pts, -2pts

Sportyy
Well, the day would have been much worse were it not for the efforts of our tennis tipping guru. Two winners (Sock to win the first set vs Cipolla and Blake to win the first set vs Granollers) and a void bet meant a decent profit for the service and much reduced losses for the portfolio.
Staked 5.5pts, +4.5pts


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 45.625pts, +10.661pts, roi 23.36%
On The Nose: Staked 51pts, +13.612pts, roi 26.69%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 4pts, -0.947pts, roi -23.68%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 8.6pts, -0.686pts, roi -7.98%
The Market Examiner: Staked 33pts, -19.8pts, roi -60%
Total roi 13.27%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 26pts, +9.785pts, roi 37.63%, ROC 48.92%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 17pts, +0.274pts, roi 1.61%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 11pts, -1.672pts, roi -15.2%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 4pts, -1.188pts, roi -29.7%
Skeeve Total: Staked 32pts, -2.586pts, roi -8.08%, ROC -3.23%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.8pts, +0.084pts, roi 10.5%, ROC 1.4%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 30pts, -5.995pts, roi -19.98%, ROC -11.99%
Sportyy: Staked 45pts, +22.151pts, roi 49.22%, ROC 27.68%
Service X: Staked 265.2pts, +35.833pts, roi 13.51%, ROC 35.83%
Total roi 13.92%

Grand Total roi 13.74%


Have a good weekend, folks.

Chester? I ask you...

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, with The Football Analyst.

Right, as promised. My plans and intentions for the new season with The Football Analyst.

The first thing I'll say is that following TFA is a different experience to following Skeeve, or Football Elite or any of the other football tipping services of which I have experience. With these, you get the bets, you place the bets, and there you go. What you see is what you get. With TFA though, it is a different set up. Here we have a number of systems, from which a subscriber can manufacture a mini-portfolio that suits their own, individual needs. I know Graeme has been helping a large number of his subscribers do just this over the summer, and if I know Graeme (and I do), it will have been a thorough job done too. Personally, I wanted to think of my own strategy. I wanted to analyse how best TFA could fit into my portfolio as a whole; that's one of it's beauties you see. You can make TFA what you want it to be.

So that's what I did. I created a strategy, then ran it past Graeme who couldn't see any major flaw in my thinking, so I think I'm good to go.

Here it is...

UK System 7-22 - 1pt staked on the Home bets, and 0.5pts staked on the AH(0) line on the Away bets.

Euro System E3-E7 - 0.5pts staked on the Home bets, and 0.25pts on the AH(0) line on the Away bets.

Where am I coming from with this?

OK, the first thing I did was to think about what I wanted from TFA this year in terms of the sort of service I wanted it to be. Looking at my football portfolio, I could see that I have lower turnover (in terms of number of bets) services such as Skeeve and Football Elite, and I have higher turnover services such as Summer Of Football and Form Lab Lite. What I needed was a service somewhere in the middle, perhaps giving 150 to 200 bets a season, there or thereabouts.

What I like about my choice of systems and the structure of the staking is that it allows me to raise the size of my stakes, which has always been my intention, whilst controlling levels of risk. I have to accept that some level of roi may be shaved off my returns through the utilisation of the AH(0) line (the equivalent to Draw No Bet), but historical roi figures are so high to render that essentially an irrelevance. This is especially so when you consider that a similar level of performance to last season will see more actual cash profit made as a result of the higher stakes and smaller banksize in terms of number of points required (see below for more on this).

I wanted to get involved with the new Euro systems too. I know this essentially goes against the grain of always watching to see how a new system or service develops; wait for it to prove itself as it were. However I'm prepared to make an exception based on my previous dealings with Graeme and my opinion of him as an analyst, the fact that I jumped straight into the UK systems when very first tested in a live environment and that didn't turn out too shabbily, and that looking at backtested performance, there's going to have to be one heck of a downturn before entering the realms of making any losses over the course of the season. However, the staking system means that the risk of following something new is reflected in the lower staking levels compared to those afforded the proven and established UK systems.

Why E3-E7? Well, it was notable from the backtested results that the European equivalent to System 7-22 gave out a lot more bets than it's UK counterpart. Bearing in mind that at this unproven stage, it probably makes sense to move up the 'selectivity ladder' of the Euro systems (ie. to those systems that filter more bets), I could see that E3-E7 did exactly what I was looking for. A high roi/ROC, proportionately the right number of bets to fit my template, plus the added benefit of providing what theoretically should represent bets that carry less risk.

Looking at the mini-TFA portfolio as a whole, and analysing the staking system I've mentioned, it means that the biggest stakes are going onto the bets that I can have most confidence in, ie. the UK 7-22 Home bets. The bets that I have least confidence in at this moment in time are the Euro Away bets, so to be staking four times more on the UK homes than on the Euro aways makes perfect sense.

As for bank sizes. Well Graeme ran the suggested portfolio through his machine and out popped the startling statistic that the biggest drawdown suffered historically was just 5.6 points. Erm, a bank of 11 points? No, not for this little bunny. 20 points for me. You know how I like to err on the side of caution. With a 20 point bank, I'm hopeful of an ROC around the 75% level. At the size of stakes that I'll be using, that would do me just fine. More than fine, in fact.

So in summary. I have a service that fits beautifully in the middle of the portfolio in terms of likely number of bets; that allows me to up my stakes significantly but by utilising the Asian Handicaps I can limit and control risk at the same time; small historical drawdowns; a high strike rate; and historically strong ROC performance. The one slight caveat I have at the moment is that more so than last year, I'm more restricted to using the Asian bookies than I was last season. Will this have an effect on the prices I can get? I wouldn't think so, not to any greatly detrimental effect anyway.

Now all we need are the bets. Not long to wait now.

Wednesday's Betting

Northern Monkey
One very small bet that came second.
Staked 0.375pts, -0.375pts

The Sportsman Racing
A run too bad to be true for today's selection.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts

Winning Racing Tips
The same horse The Sportsman Racing picked was the first leg of an each way double, so no returns there.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts

The Market Examiner
No joy from the two bets.
Staked 2pts, -2pts

Service X
Very small profit overnight with two winners from four bets.
Staked 10pts, +0.49pts

Sportyy
Dodged a bullet by missing the price on a bet that lost. Nice when it works that way. Elsewhere, a winner Nieminen to bt Kukushkin - 0.885/1) staked with twice the amount as another loser for a profit overall.
Staked 3pts, +0.77pts


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 45.625pts, +10.661pts, roi 23.36%
On The Nose: Staked 50.5pts, +14.112pts, roi 27.94%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 4pts, -0.947pts, roi -23.68%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 8.6pts, -0.686pts, roi -7.98%
The Market Examiner: Staked 33pts, -19.8pts, roi -60%
Total roi 13.67%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 26pts, +9.785pts, roi 37.63%, ROC 48.92%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 17pts, +0.274pts, roi 1.61%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 11pts, -1.672pts, roi -15.2%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 4pts, -1.188pts, roi -29.7%
Skeeve Total: Staked 32pts, -2.586pts, roi -8.08%, ROC -3.23%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.8pts, +0.084pts, roi 10.5%, ROC 1.4%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 28pts, -3.995pts, roi -14.26%, ROC 7.99%
Sportyy: Staked 39.5pts, +17.651pts, roi 44.68%, ROC 22.06%
Service X: Staked 254.2pts, +42.888pts, roi 16.87%, ROC 42.88%
Total roi 15.35%

Grand Total: Staked £10,089.50, +£1,499.51, roi 14.86%

Politics and football. Never a good mix.

So sorry for the lateness of the post. It's all down to having to deal with the politics involved when running an U10 football team and having to grade the players into A, B and C teams. The kids are fine - it's the parents with the problems!

Anyway, if you'll forgive me, I'll miss out the month to date figures tonight. I need to go to bed!


I was asked a question on the blog last week:

Hi rowan i have question to ask. I have two services both with the same recommended bank. I have 5000 euro bank for each and the recommended bank for each is 75 points. Is it enough to divide 5000 by 75 or do i have to do more calculations based on the number of selections each service usually has per year to work out my bet per point.

This is the sort of question I am asked most frequently. I've been quite set in my approach to this issue, but have recently changed my outlook and methods.

First, the way I tackled this issue up until very recently...

I would work out how many points you could expect each service to stake over a typical year (would have to look at historical records and accept you're never going to get it spot on). I would have a fixed amount in mind as to how much cash I would want to stake with each service in my portfolio, each amount being equal. I would divide the total desired amount staked by the number of points each individual service are likely to stake over the twelve months and that would give me a £/pt value. Times the £/pt value by the number of points the bank should be to give you the size of bank for that service.

Example: Service A stakes an average of 100 points per year. I want to be staking about £10k per year with each of the services in my portfolio.

I divide £10k by 100 points, which gives me a £/point value of £100.

The recommended bank size for this service is 25 points, so my bank is £2,500.

Service B stakes an average of 200 points per year. Using the same calculations, my £/pt value equals £50. Recommended bank size is 80 points. Bank for this service would be £4,000.

And so on for each service in the portfolio.

The theory behind this approach is that the balancing of stakes across a period of time between each service, means that if one or two services have a shocker, they shouldn't disproportionately drag the whole portfolio performance down. In essence, the damage one service can do is controlled.

There is a lot to be said for this. My own approach is a cautious one. I see monthly turnover lying between £10 and £20k, and gasp a little inside. That's a lot of money to me. Being gambled. Therefore, anything that reduces risk or exposure can only be a good thing. This method of staking and bank management takes advantage of the diversity that a well constructed portfolio should offer, to minimise the risk of wipeout. It maximises the chances of staying in the game, and there's a heck of a lot to be said for that.


However, the other way of doing things, is to have the same set bank for each service, as described in the question above. To answer the question, I would simply divide the 5,000 euros by the number of points recommended bank size (ie. 75 in this case) to give you a point value of 66.66 euros - I'd possibly round up or down for ease. Provided each service had a proven, long term edge, then I wouldn't worry about the number of bets each service recommend. Yes, you do run the risk that a bad run for the service with the higher turnover would quickly drag down overall performance, but if you look at the ROC a service produces in addition to the ROI, to my mind at least, this becomes a less important factor, provided of course the number of points recommended for the bank has been well researched and represents a safe amount.

Why do I say that? Well, in my portfolio of 14 services, only one of them is "unproven" (and that's not really - it just hasn't been monitored by the SBC). The others have all been operating for at least two years, have proofed to the SBC, have been through both good times and bad and have treated the two imposters the same, and have demonstrated that their edge is real. Put like this, and having started to place more importance on ROC (thanks to Graeme's musings over at TFA), I have changed from the approach above whereby the staking for each service is equalised over time, to devoting the same sized bank in cash terms to each tipster.

By having the same cash bank for each service, you can see much more clearly the strengths and weaknesses of the individual constituent parts of the portfolio in one very important way - how much cash profit/loss they make/lose you. This sounds almost stupid in it's simplicity, but believe me, it's an important point. Forget turnover, strike rate, levels of roi or any other parameter of measurement you might choose to use - doing it this way you can see immediately where you're making your money (or not). Do this, and then the next stage of portfolio management can far easier be achieved...ie. weighting the stakes.

Anyway, I feel like I'm getting a bit bogged down here now, which won't do at all. So I'll stop. Any queries on what I said, or if you think it's a load of old baloney, that's what the 'Comment' section is for. Don't be shy.


Tuesday's Betting

Ok, the quickest round up ever. Tiny loss on the day. Summer of Football (0/1), Sportyy (1/1), On The Nose (0/3), and Service X (2/2).


That's yer lot. Laters.

Locked in bathrooms, escaping mad axe men.

Can't help thinking that title ought to have an exclamation mark.

Nice to see we had typical glorious British Bank Holiday weekend weather to enjoy over the last three days. Apart from exeptionally efficient bin men, what exactly does this country offer?

Weekend's Betting

On The Nose
Funny old game, this. OTN struggled for six months and now not a day goes by without a winner. On Saturday we had Heerat - York - 5/1, Sunday Scottish Glen - Goodwood - 10/1 (r.4 deduction), and then yesterday, Lunar Deity - Epsom - 3/1.
Staked 7.25pts, +4.563pts

Northern Monkey
Well! What a weekend! Here are the winners: Saturday - My Sharona - Goodwood - 7/2, and Sunday My Girl Anna - The Curragh - 12/1 and Green Howard - Yarmouth - 7/4. The latter was a maximum 3pt win. Fine, fine profits.
Staked 7.5pts, +12.245pts

It should be noted that Wayne called four out of four correctly from his League 2 selections, too. I imagine Wayne has had worse weekends!

On a serious point, it's great to see both Northern Monkey and On The Nose hit form. It was a very tricky first half of the year for them both, a period that tested their patience I'm sure. Obviously the ytd figures are still not so great for either service but to be honest I'm not concerned by that. I'm not going to take an arbitrary period of time, such as a year, and say that if a profit isn't made in that time then I'll look elsewhere. I've made good money with them both in the past, and I'm confident I will in the future. At this moment in time, that's good enough for me.

The Market Examiner
It seems to be a relatively quiet period for TME at present, but a welcome winner was identified on Sunday (Highlife Dancer - Yarmouth - 6/1). A couple of losers yesterday, but a profit over the three day period nonetheless.
Staked 3pts, +4pts

Winning Racing Tips
A similarly quiet time of it for WRT too. The only action to report was an each way treble yesterday that produced a minimal return.
Staked 0.4pts, +0.037pts

Skeeve (Asians)
Across the Skeeve portfolio, Dartford beating Kidderminster (darned Kidderminster!) proved to be the proverbial kick in the cajones. A reverse of that one match would have made a huge difference. As it was, a small profit was banked, so it could have been a lot worse.

As far as the Asian Handicap service was concerned, one winner from the two bets (Newport beating Braintree) for just a small loss.
Staked 10pts, -1.325pts

Skeeve (Doubles)
Again, one from two. This time though, a nice profit as the winning bet (Mansfield to beat Hyde and Cambridge (+0.5) versus Nuneaton) was weighted with five times the stake as that of the losing bet (bloody Kidderminster!).
Staked 6pts, +3.327pts

Skeeve (Shortlist)
A void bet here (although a very tiny profit was made as a result of the improvised way of producing an Asian Handicap bet) and a loser (f*cking Kidderminster!!!).
Staked 2pts, -0.988pts

It's been a steady start to the season for Skeeve. A small loss overall, but I've seen this before. Months producing a small loss are often followed by months providing big profits. And even if not, then the big winning month will come after that. Or the one after that. Look, what I'm trying to say here is the profits will come, you can be sure of that.

The Sportsman
Two bets over the weekend - a winner and a loser.
Staked 0.3pts, -0.049pts

Service X
Not as spectacular as last weekend, but then I guess that would be asking a bit much. For those into stats, there were six winners, four losers and a void bet.
Staked 36pts, +1.909pts

Summer Of Football
Another 25pts profit this weekend.

I kid, I kid. Funnily enough, in some perverse way, it was kinda reassuring for SOF to have what can only be described as an unremarkable weekend. The dizzying levels of profit made over the past few weeks was beginning to make me wonder what was going on in the world. Perhaps such outperformance was a direct effect of El Nino? Something was up, that's for sure, things just don't go that well, do they? Surely doom and catastrophe lay in wait just around the betting corner? The betting equivalent of Jack Torrance of The Shining, hiding in the hotel lobby before jumping out at me, chasing me up to the bathroom. I'd lock myself in only for Jack and his great big axe to smash through the door as a precursor to chopping me up into several meaty chunks. That sort of catastrophe. And I'd say as far as catastrophes go, that's a pretty catastrophic catastrophe.

Heeeeeeeere's Johnny!

And that would be it. Loser after loser after loser, until my entire bank had been smashed into smithereens by that metaphorical axe. Oh yes.

As it was, none of that happened but instead SOF had one winner and two losers (one of which had half stakes returned) for a very small loss.
Staked 3pts, -0.245pts

Form Lab Lite
Not a great weekend. Five bets and one win but bottom line could be worse.
Staked 5pts, -2.56pts

Sportyy
Expecting a bit of action over the next couple of weeks at the US Open. This started with three bets yesterday which produced one winner for a miniscule loss overall.
Staked 4.5pts, -0.182pts

So there we have it.

Here are the Month to Date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 45.25pts, +11.036pts, roi 24.39%
On The Nose: Staked 49pts, +15.612pts, roi 31.86%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3.5pts, +0.026pts, roi 0.75%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 8.1pts, -0.186pts, roi -2.3%
The Market Examiner: Staked 31pts, -17.8pts, roi -57.41%
Total roi 18.64%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 25pts, +10.785pts, roi 43.14%, ROC 53.92%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 17pts, +0.274pts, roi 1.61%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 11pts, -1.672pts, roi -15.2%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 4pts, -1.188pts, roi -29.7%
Skeeve Total: Staked 32pts, -2.586pts, roi -8.08%, ROC -3.23%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.8pts, +0.084pts, roi 10.5%, ROC 1.4%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 28pts, -3.995pts, roi -14.26%, ROC -7.99%
Sportyy: Staked 35pts, +15.246pts, roi 43.56%, ROC 19.05%
Service X: Staked 239.2pts, +38.598pts, roi 16.13%, ROC 38.59%
Total roi 15.4%

Grand Total roi 16.34%


So, The Shining or The Exorcist...the scarier?

Being lazy!

Well, it's a Bank Holiday, right?

And who works on a Bank Holiday? Nurses, Coppers, and apparently, our Bin Men. Who came around at some ridiculous, unearthly time this morning, waking all and sundry (but most importantly, me) to pick up rubbish that we never put out because let's face it, only Nurses and Coppers work on a Bank Holiday!

Anyway, I'm not a Nurse or a Copper. Nor am I a Bin Man. So the blog has been postponed until tomorrow. Alright?

As a summary, it's been a good weekend, especially for Northern Monkey!

Back as normal tomorrow...

Friday's Betting

I've got five minutes so thought I'd keep up to speed with the daily performance.

Friday's Betting

Another good day, thanks mainly to a stormer from Northern Monkey, who very nearly hit the jackpot.

On The Nose
Another winner found amongst three bets (Ortensia - York - 6/1).
Staked 1.75pts, +1.75pts

Northern Monkey
Great tipping by Wayne yesterday. Three bets which included a lovely winner which drifted significantly on course, but for once, the market lied (Khubala - Ffos Las - 12/1). Possibly an even better bet though (Spirit Quartz - York - 25/1) was just touched off by the On The Nose tip mentioned above, Ortensia. A good each way return, but so close to a big payout.
Staked 2.25pts, +5.712pts

The Sportsman Racing
Just one bet, and a loser, which proved to be expensive as the same beast was tipped by On The Nose.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts

Form Lab Lite
A small profit after a split stake approach was taken to a match in Norway, one of the two bets winning.
Staked 1pt, +0.2pts


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 37.75pts, -1.166pts, roi -3.08%
On The Nose: Staked 41.75pts, +11.05pts, roi 26.46%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3.5pts, +0.026pts, roi 0.75%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 7.7pts, -0.223pts, roi -2.9%
The Market Examiner: Staked 28pts, -21.8pts, roi -77.85%
Total roi 7.44%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 22pts, +11.03pts, roi 50.14%, ROC 55.15%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 23pts, -1.435pts, roi -6.23%, ROC -2.87%
Sportyy: Staked 30.5pts, +15.428pts, roi 50.58%, ROC 19.28%
Service X: Staked 203.2pts, +36.689pts, roi 18.05%, ROC 36.68%
Total roi 21.51%

Grand Total roi 17.1%

Friday again!

Usual quick one for a Friday.

Just to say that next week I'll be discussing my strategy for the forthcoming season with the The Football Analyst systems. Have been working on things and I'm ready to go. Can't wait (for the TFA bets to start that is, not the writing of the post)!

Thursday's Betting

A good day as On The Nose continues to find the winner's enclosure.

The Market Examiner
Things just not falling right so far this month. 0 from 3 yesterday.
Staked 3pts, -3pts.

On The Nose
The Judge seems to have refound his ability to knock in regular, big-priced winners. Today's success came in the opener at York (Hototo - York - 10/1 and 11/1). Managed to get half my stake on at 11s, which was pleasing.

The only trouble with starting the day with a good win like that is that when the subsequent bets fail to score you're left with a slight sense of anticlimax (there were three losers) but a good overall profit banked.
Staked 3pts, +2.75pts.

Winning Racing Tips
0/1. Little damage done though - lightly staked.
Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.

Summer Of Football
One bet in the MLS overnight which on the Asian Handicaps produced a 'half' winner. All profits count.
Staked 1pt, +0.457pts.

Service X
Two bets in South America, producing one winner and a drawn DNB bet (so void).
Staked 6pts, +2.542pts.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 35.5pts, -6.878pts, roi -19.37%
On The Nose: Staked 40pts, +9.3pts, roi 23.25%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 7.7pts, -0.223pts, roi -2.9%
The Market Examiner: Staked 28pts, -21.8pts, roi -77.85%
Total roi 3.63%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 22pts, +11.03pts, roi 50.14%, ROC 55.15%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi 25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 22pts, -1.635pts, roi -7.43%, ROC -3.27%
Sportyy: Staked 30.5pts, +15.428pts, roi 50.58%, ROC 19.28%
Service X: Staked 203.2pts, +36.689pts, roi 18.05%, ROC 36.68%
Total roi 21.52%

Grand Total roi 16.08%


Have a great weekend, all.

Up the Gunners!

Making the most of summer evenings.

I have a confession to make. I have been neglecting my trading. Actually, "neglecting" perhaps doesn't quite cover it. Abandoned, might be a better word.

This is only a temporary condition of stasis however. I have plans, you see. Ideas and ambitions. Ultimately, I want to be able to develop two strong income streams; one from the portfolio, and the other from trading.

Tennis is one sport that I plan to reintroduce myself to, as far as trading is concerned. I can't help thinking there are other sports though, that will allow the opportunity to gather some 'green'. Golf for one. The longer term footie markets are ripe for plucking some profit from, surely? How many times does a team reach c. 1.50 to win the Premier league only for one or two results go against them resulting in a significant drift? Cricket. Rugby. The list goes on.

To be honest, the reason I have temporarily called a halt to my tennis trading learning curve is simply a desire to make the most of the kids' summer holidays and to spend time with them of an evening. It's very easy I think, to lose perspective and perhaps forget what the really important things in life are. I make no secret of the fact that I consider my gambling a business, albeit one I have to run around "normal" working hours. As such, the demands I place on myself are heavy - I don't feel I can ever just let the portfolio look after itself. Back-up plans, alternative strategies, the protection of bookmaker accounts, re-investment, portfolio growth, maximisation of margins, etc., etc., are all things that I am constantly thinking about, analysing, and theorising over. (You know I read that last sentence and think what a sad b*stard I really am - I must be scintillating company!).

Anyway, these are just off-the-top-of-my-head blatherings. The point is that I'll soon be ready to pick up the trading torch again. I'll keep you posted as to how it goes.

Wednesday's Betting

Another really good day, this time with thanks and gratitude to Winning Racing Tips and, appropriately enough after last night's post, Form Lab Lite.

Thought I might change things slightly with this results section too. Hopefully it will make things a little more transparent on a day to day basis, which I know will appeal to some if not others.

Northern Monkey
Two horses backed today and an overall profit. The 'winner' was Mass Rally - York - 2.65/1, supported in the 'to be placed' market in the opener (the horse finishing second). A small stake was also risked on the same horse in the normal 'win' market, and there was a loser in a later race.
Staked 2.25pts, +1.24pts

On The Nose
A small loss on the day. Four selections provided no return, but a good one was found to place (Spanish Duke - York - 16/1).
Staked 3.75pts, -1.25pts

The Market Examiner
No joy today (0/1) from a service that is currently suffering from a severe bout of seconditis.
Staked 1pt, -1pt

Winning Racing Tips
Great tip! Great, great tip! Wasn't a 33/1 winner or anything, but such a well thought-out selection (Farrh - York - 7/2 in the without Frankel market). This was essentially an eight horse race with superb value on the 'place' part of the each way bet. Really good tipping to my mind. I was only able to get half my stake on at 7/2 and had to take 100/30 for the other half. Bloody bookmakers!
Staked 0.8pts, +1.56pts

Form Lab Lite
Great evening in Sweden for FLL, with two Over 3.5 goals bets being landed at decent odds. One of the matches was comfortable, but the other saw the fourth goal go in at around the 89 minute mark. Late goals do go for you aswell as against you, although this is easily forgotten at times.
Staked 2pts, +3.04pts

Service X
A loss! What!?! Just not good enough - this one's for the bin! Five bets and only two winners, Goddammit!!! Pathetic. Pfft. The guy just hasn't been the same since getting 14/17 right over the weekend just gone. Needs to pull his socks up and I shall be emailing to tell him so.
Staked 13pts, -4.551pts


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 35.5pts, -6.878pts, roi -19.37%
On The Nose: Staked 37pts, +6.55pts, roi 17.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 7.4pts, +0.076pts, roi 1.02%
The Market Examiner: Staked 25pts, -18.8pts, roi -75.2%
Total roi 2.26%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 21pts, +10.573pts, roi 50.34%, ROC 52.86%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 22pts, -1.635pts, roi -7.43%, ROC -3.27%
Sportyy: Staked 30.5pts, +15.428pts, roi 50.58%, ROC 19.28%
Service X: Staked 197.2pts, +34.147pts, roi 17.31%, ROC 34.14%
Total roi 21.05%

Grand Total roi 15.4%

Form Lab Lite

So, Form Lab Lite.

Look, whenever any service goes through a not-so-good patch, which they all will do at some point or other, it is very hard not to start feeling negative towards it. It's daft. Stupid. But inevitable. Especially when relatively new to the service and there's not been sufficient time to see how it ebbs and flows, how it presses on in the midst of a losing run, how it stays consistent in it's approach which any successful service must be.

And so it is for me right now with Form Lab Lite. Taking a step back though, looking at the past twelve months' results dispassionately, then things still look fairly decent. The official figures (and as I've only been a member for a short while, I have to rely on these) running from August 2011 to July 2012 show the roi is running at 3.78% (low, I grant you) but the ROC is a fairly healthy 74.5%. Cash profitability, ie. bottom line money-in-the-bank figures are decent, which let's face it, is the most important thing.

Sure, the last couple of months or so have seen water being trodden with no real positive forward momentum being attained. But that aside, there is a lot to like about FLL. Relatively high turnover, especially during the summer months is a real positive and the reason I explored the service in the first place. It is unusual not to get a price at or very close to the one recommended in the Daily Report, the part of the service I utilise. Clear write-ups on the stats leading to the selections, leaving one in no doubt as to why we are backing what we are backing.

The only potential issue for myself when I cast an eye to the future, is whether or not when I up stakes I'll be able to get on all the bets. On occasion, the only bookies with the relevant market are those that you would recognise as being 'High Street' (although the number of bets for which this is the case is very much the minority). At my current staking levels, it's not a problem, but with higher stakes? It's a question mark, that's all. It may be fine, but regardless, I'm not at that stage yet so for now at least, I can carry happily on as I am.

To answer the chap who commented under Friday's blog post about the service, I can confirm that the same team of analysts are providing the 'Daily Report' recommendations as was in place a year ago.

The last thing to note about FLL is that it does offer a lot more than a simple tipping service. Even on the Lite version, there are 'Game Notes' for all fixtures covering in excess of 45 leagues, 'Match Data' for upcoming games, a variety of ranking tables and key indicators and a 'Pre-Match Query' function that allows the user to perform their own analysis. Put another way, the 'Daily Reports' are just a small part of the overall service. Perhaps when I'm doing this full time (*cough*), I'll have the opportunity to explore how I can utilise what Form Lab Lite has to offer properly.


Tuesday's Betting

A pretty quiet day, ending in a very small loss.

Sportyy minimised the loss by gaining a more heavily staked winner from two bets.

No luck for Northern Monkey (0/1), On The Nose (0/1), and The Market Examiner (0/1).


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 33.25pts, -8.118pts, roi -24.41%
On The Nose: Staked 33.25pts, +7.8pts, roi 23.45%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 6.6pts, -1.483pts, roi -22.48%
The Market Examiner: Staked 24pts, -17.8pts, roi -74.16%
Total roi -2.75%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 21pts, +10.573pts, roi 50.34%, ROC 52.86%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 20pts, -4.675pts, roi -23.37%, ROC -9.35%
Sportyy: Staked 30.5pts, +15.428pts, roi 50.58%, ROC 19.28%
Service X: Staked 184.2pts, +38.698pts, roi 21%, ROC 38.69%
Total roi 20.42%

Grand Total roi 13.64%

A thought-provoking comment was left under Friday's post:

Interested to see you're following Form Lab Lite as I have also been using it for one year on and off. I've noticed that results have tailed off with the last year seeing minimal profit and whilst, if it was a single transparent tipster I could forgive such a run, I can't help but wonder whether the analyst who built up the profits in the first year may have left Form Labs hence the fall in profits. The thing is that there is no transparency around who is actually making each selection so it's not possible to track this. Just wondering what your thoughts were really and interested to know if you are planning to stick with them.

OK. First things first. I'm always a little wary of writing about a service that is going through a spell that perhaps isn't it's best, particularly when relatively new to it. Having said that, I will write a post tomorrow on my general thoughts on Form Lab Lite (which are positive), keeping things deliberately objective and in the context of long-term performance and not just that of the last couple of months.

The issue of the transparency (or otherwise) of a service is a very interesting one though, and can be examined outside the confines of an analysis limited to one specific service. To my mind, the transparency is directly related to the interaction you have with the tipster. The better you get to know the tipster, the more transparent a service becomes.

I'm pleased to say that I have (to my mind anyway!) good relationships with the majority of the tipsters I follow. In the current portfolio, that includes (in no particular order) the operators of The Football Analyst, Skeeve, Football Elite/On The Oche, The Sportsman/The Sportsman Racing, Northern Monkey, On The Nose, and The Market Examiner. We have exchanged emails, during both good and bad times, and several have been a huge help to me in terms of my whole gambling operation (a rather fancy word for it, I know), taking time out to offer advice and guidance. A relationship based on trust is established, and you get to know how each tipster operates. And this has one big knock-on effect...when things take a turn for the worse, as a subscriber, you tend to have more faith that things will turn around. A good relationship with the tipster means that losing runs become slightly easier to bear, improving your chances of not giving in at the wrong time and chucking in the towel just prior to the start of the recovery.

Of course this philosophy can backfire. If you take what I have just written at face value, it must surely mean that if you have a good relationship with a tipster, you are more likely to follow him over a cliff should he lose his edge (or marbles!). You are at risk of not pulling the plug on a service when really you should. This is precisely why I have imposed the rule about dropping a service as soon as the drawdown equals the size of bank set aside for it. That way, the relationship with the tipster becomes irrelevant if this point be reached; it is simply a business decision to stop following. A stop loss, if you like.

The thing is, it takes time for this relationship to be established. Maybe a year, or a season at the very least. Often longer. This means that when you're first using a service, before sufficient time and communication has passed between yourself and the tipster, poor runs are harder to deal with. Even now, and even with knowing this, I found getting through July with Sportyy a challenge. It was my second month with the tennis tipster and it was having a 'mare. Psychologically, I found it a lot harder to deal with than it should have been, simply because I was new to the service.

And it is similar now with Form Lab Lite. Results are a long, long way from being disastrous. In fact, the official figures, which are all I can use as I've been a member only from the early summertime, show a strong performance over the last 12 months. And yet, the current, quite natural lull in profit-making, registers on the psyche more than it should simply because Form Lab is still relatively new to me. But, and here's the thing, the Commentor is right in that there is little by way of transparency when it comes to Form Lab. That's not a deliberate thing I'm sure. The couple of queries I have sent their way have each been replied to promptly, professionally and helpfully. But there is no daily email. No regular exchange of views. No real relationship being built outside the actual tipping environment, yet. That is not a criticism. It's just the nature of the service.

This lack of relationship does not make Form Lab a lesser service. It is perfectly possible of course, to produce top results without having any regular exchange between the service and the subscriber. And for all I know, the operators of Form Lab may well communicate regularly and frequently with other members of their subscriber base. Perhaps it's just me being a miserable sod!

Trouble is, when you don't know the brains behind a service too well, and results do take a turn for the worse, then it is inevitable that the demons that exist inside the head start to stir things up and cause trouble. They force you to ask questions like, "Has the original tipster/analyst moved on?".

You know, I couldn't help thinking that I should ask. So I did. And Form Lab answered.

I'll tell you all tomorrow.


Monday's Betting

A grand profit of £4.25 today! That there was a profit at all was really down to the excellent performance of Sportyy, who called three right from three. Add this to the one bet (a winner) from Service X and it amounted to £4.25 in profit more than the losses made by Form Lab Lite (0/2), Northern Monkey (0/1) and The Market Examiner (0/1).


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 32.25pts, -7.118pts, roi -22.07%
On The Nose: Staked 32.75pts, +8.3pts, roi 25.34%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 6.6pts, -1.483pts, roi -22.48%
The Market Examiner: Staked 23pts, -16.8pts, roi -73.04%
Total roi -1.33%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 21pts, +10.573pts, roi 50.34%, ROC 52.86%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 20pts, -4.675pts, roi -23.37%, ROC -9.35%
Sportyy: Staked 27pts, +14.61pts, roi 54.11%, ROC 18.26%
Service X: Staked 184.2pts, +38.698pts, roi 21%, ROC 38.69%
Total roi 20.38%

Grand Total roi 14.03%

Busy weekend!

Straight into the weekend round-up tonight. Want to watch the footie.

Friday - Sunday Betting

Frenetic, is what this weekend has been. I got an email on Saturday from a friend of mine who essentially does what I do with gambling, saying he seemed to have spent all morning putting bets on. I know exactly what he meant. Still, when the results are good and money is made, it's a lot easier to just get on with it and it doesn't feel like a chore. Which thankfully, is where I'm at at the moment.

Northern Monkey
A lovely winner on Friday (Lily In Pink - Newbury - 12/1) and a placed horse from three selections meant a good profit moving into the weekend. Saturday saw another good win (Communicator - Chester - 11/2), but four losers on the same day meant the day finished all square.

A quick note too about Wayne's League 2 football bets, a new aspect to his service-offering he is hoping to develop. All bets are being proofed to the SBC I believe and current NMP members are receiving the selections via separate email. The information received thus far show that there is obviously a huge amount of research going into his selections and his rationale is 'Skeeve-esque' in it's detail. I'm not backing the tips with hard cash - as Wayne himself explained, there is no track record established - but will be following closely, and I wish Wayne every success. Not a bad start with two winners from two on Saturday!

On The Nose
The Judge has been crying out, pleading, and no doubt, offering sacrificial Gooners to the Gods to secure a bit of consistent dry ground. Well, now he has it, he's beginning to knock the winners in with fair regularity. No winner on Friday but a great placed effort to negate a loser and end up a point to the good (Lujeanie - Newmarket - 20/1), and then a top class Saturday. Five bets and two storming winners (Medici Time - Newmarket - 10/1 and Kiz Kulesi - Newmarket - 5/1). As if this wasn't enough, one bet on Sunday, one winner (Mince - Pontefract - 7/2). Fingers crossed the rain stays away a little longer, eh?

The Sportsman Racing
Just the one bet which lost.

Winning Racing Tips
Slowly, slowly, catchee monkee at the moment. Can't quite get the winners but consistently placing for a series of small profits. That was the case on Friday and Saturday with no bet Sunday.

The Market Examiner
This month is still proving to be a bit of a struggle. Just three bets, but none successful.


Football Elite
Cautious start to the new season from Matt, recommending just the one DNB bet which drew, so all level.

Skeeve
A loss making weekend but no real damage done. Luton beating Hyde on Friday evening got the Asian Handicaps off to a good start but profits were pegged back a little with a lower staked losing bet on the Saturday.

One Doubles bet which was a loser, and one of two correct for the Shortlist picks.

Form Lab Lite
Still struggling to gain some real momentum at present. A winner on Friday in Ireland but a loser yesterday in Norway. Was a little fortunate as I only lost a half point on a split staked match as I couldn't get reasonable odds on the other of the two bets. Very quiet and I can't imagine the service will have many weekends from here on with only two bets, and hopefully increased turnover will lead to increased profit-making.

Service X
Quite the weekend. High turnover, high strike rate doesn't really get too much better than this...14 bets, 10 wins, 1 void. The thing with this service is that every weekend there are always two or three bets I don't place because the odds have gone and don't recover sufficiently, but it doesn't really seem to matter when I'm placing so many other bets from them. This weekend, the three I missed all won but on other weekends the ones I've missed have lost so I'm not too cheesed off. How can I be when the profits come in so consistently?

The Sportsman
Just the one bet this weekend, a winner in Scotland. Not going to mention what it was as I believe Scott sees the source of the profits as a potential moneyspinner and could well go in again. Typical of this service to spot a potential angle and then exploit it successfully.

Summer Of Football
What more is there to say? Another superb weekend! Every week I say this run can't continue (and it can't, it can't) and then each weekend, more superlative stats to report. From Friday...7 bets, 6 wins!

It's been noticeable that on a couple of the bets the prices seemed to come under a little more pressure than has been the case previously. It's something that James is well aware of and is observing closely. Still managed to beat the stated odds in the email more times than not though.

Sportyy
Just one small, unsuccessful bet on Friday.


So there we are. A good weekend's punting to follow what had been a decent week preceding it. Can't carry on like this. Never does.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 31.25pts, -6.118pts, roi -19.57%
On The Nose: Staked 32.75pts, +8.3pts, roi 25.34%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 6.6pts, -1.483pts, roi -22.48%
The Market Examiner: Staked 22pts, -15.8pts, roi -71.81%
Total roi -0.37%

Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 20pts, +11.073pts,, roi 55.36%, ROC ROC 55.36%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 18pts, -2.675pts, roi -14.86%, ROC -5.35%
Sportyy: Staked 22pts, +9.272pts, roi 42.14%, ROC 11.59%
Service X: Staked 181.2pts, +36.448pts, roi 20.11%, ROC 36.44%
Total roi 20.99%

Grand Total roi: 14.55%




Right, I'm not bitter (well, actually, perhaps just a teeny bit) but is it wrong of me to hope that RVP has a nasty collision with the corner flag necessitating surgical removal from his posterior?

Friday night bliss!

Just your typical short and to the point Friday night post tonight. The wife and kids are away, I have the Once Upon A Time In America DVD set to play, Stella in the fridge and a Beef Chop Suey on order. Oh, and a contented smile on my face.

Thursday's Betting

The third good day in a row.

Great day for On The Nose, finding two good winners from four selections made (Common Touch - Newmarket - 9/1 and Saytara - Salisbury - 7/2).

No luck for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/1).

The each way The Sportsman Racing selection came second for a very small loss, and a similar situation for Winning Racing Tips which had an each way double, one horse winning and the other finishing second.

Onto football betting. The one Form Lab Lite bet was a loser, but Service X managed three out of three for a solid profit.


Forgive me for my leaving out the month to date figures tonight. Stomach's rumbling.

Have a great weekend, all. See you the other side.

Balance

Right then. The final part of the "How to pick a new service" series. :)

The final thing I'd like to mention is that as the portfolio has grown, I've found myself more in a situation whereby I'm looking for specific gaps to fill or for a potential new service to perform a particular function, as opposed to simply looking for a good service. I've mentioned it numerous times already, but a prime example was my joining Summer of Football, Sportyy and Form Lab Lite in June having identified a potential weakness in my portfolio; ie. a lack of turnover and diversification as a result of the majority of my football tipping services closing down for the summer. In other words, I was looking at portfolio construction from a completely different angle.

This is easier to do when you have a settled portfolio that, generally speaking, you're happy with. It's a bit like managing a football team. The team might be playing well and getting good results, but you can perhaps see that a better striker would make you an even better team and improve results still further. So as a manager, you start to look for suitable strikers playing for other teams, settle on your target, tap them up, get an arrangement in place whereby you offer the greedy bastard even more money that they can ever possibly spend, and then break the hearts of all the supporters of the team you're buying from when their star player ups and leaves citing ambition as a motive whilst conveniently forgetting that their being injured all the time contributed massively to the fact that he hadn't won any trophies in recent years.

I digress.

The point I'm making is that when I got to a certain point with the portfolio, my outlook changed from simple portfolio construction to being one more concerned with balance and practicalities. This is when you look at a service, and instead of just noting the bottom line results, you instead (taking a historical proftiability for granted) look at whether or not the expertise of the service lies within areas that your current services don't already cover, or whether the service can add something new to your portfolio in some way. If it does, then you may be onto a winner.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday's Betting

Another decent day.

A tiny profit for Northern Monkey whose one selection finished in the frame.

A nice winner for On The Nose (Saint Thomas - Beverley - 4/1).

No success for The Market Examiner (0/1).

It was Sportyy who contributed most to the day's profit making, finding two winners from two (Raonic to bt Gasquet - 0.67/1 and Andujar to win the first set vs Tipsarevic - 4/1).

A good performance from Service X too, finding three winners from four bets.

Just one losing bet from Form Lab Lite.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -8.868pts, roi -35.47%
On The Nose: Staked 25pts, -4.775pts, roi -19.1%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 18pts, -11.8pts, roi -65.55%
Total roi -19.8%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 15.5pts, -2.145pts, roi -13.83%, ROC -4.29%
Sportyy: Staked 21pts, +10.272pts, roi 48.91%, ROC 12.84%
Service X: Staked 135.2pts, +11.953pts, roi 8.84%, ROC 11.95%
Total roi 16.66%

Grand Total roi 5.34%

The three Rs...Reviews. Reports. Results.

Where were we?


Shane asked about the extent to which the Secret Betting Club plays in my decision making when it comes to deciding which tipping services to subscribe to. Well, if you look at my portfolio you can see that there is only one, Service X, which is not or has not been monitored by, and/or recommended by the SBC. I mentioned yesterday that I started putting money down on The Football Analyst selections from Day 1, which of course was way before any mention of the service was made elsewhere, but they were exceptional circumstances. It is fair to say that the SBC have been tremendously influential in the way I have shaped the portfolio.

It is not now the case of simply reading a favourable review in one of the SBC newsletters and then jumping in with both Size 10s. As I alluded to yesterday, that perhaps does summarise my "strategy" in the early days, hence the mistakes made. I was a bit like a Neurosurgeon trying to remove an aneurysm using a hammer and chisel.

There have been certain things that the SBC have done that I've not fully supported (at which point I post my point of view in their forum which is a bit of a cheek, although so far they have put up with my irrascibility with an enviable patience), but one thing about the service that is irrefutable is that the standard of their service reports are extremely high. There is obviously a huge amount of work that goes into their production and by reading a report they produce, I can now be almost 100% certain whether or not that service would be right for me. Sometimes the tone of the report is very positive towards the service being reviewed, but within two paragraphs I can tell that it wouldn't ait well in my portfolio. But is that not the purpose of a subjective review? Is it not it's purpose to allow the reader to make an easy, informed decision as to whether the service should be followed or not?

My portfolio now is built. I'm happy with it, and I can't envisage any major changes anytime in the near future. Naturally if a service within it loses the number of points deposited in the "bank" for it, then it must be removed and replaced. But other than that, I'm hoping for some real stability now. Sure, one or two of the services may be dropped in the autumn, ie. those that are an exercise in increasing turnover over the summer months. I've not made any final decision on these yet other than now seeing Summer Of Football as a permanent portfolio member. But with the exception of one or two services, my portfolio is as I hope it will continue to be for months to come.

But what happens if a service does run through it's bank, or which raises it's fees to a level I don't want to pay, perhaps? Well, that's where the SBC comes into it's own again. I have first heard about many a service via the SBC newsletter; a strong review means I take a mental note that it would indeed fit well into the portfolio, it's just that I don't need to add it at that moment. In other words, I'm building a series of "reserve" services that I can slot into the portfolio if the need arises, or if I want to expand. A prime example of this is Sportyy. I had been watching the tennis tipster's results for many months, starting from the time I first read about it in the SBC newsletter. Consequently, when in late Spring I wanted a service to introduce some more intensive summer betting turnover, it was only natural for me to try this service first. The way I see it, reading the SBC reviews can keep you a step ahead of the game. There are always options.

Sometimes though, it is nice just to see bottom line results for services that are perhaps a little lower on the radar. Racingproofing.com , and Sports-tipsters.co.uk are sites on which we can find the performance being tracked of some very familiar names, but some unfamiliar too. I also look occasionally at the ProGambler site, Blogabet, and . All are useful for identifying potential future additions to the portfolio. Perhaps I'm a bit of an anorak, but I do find the occasional trawl through such sites enjoyable.

So, to answer Shane's question, the SBC do play a very large part in my thinking when it comes to selecting which services to follow. I can't help thinking that if I'd paid more heed to other advice they provide - about practicalities, cost, stress placed on bookmaker accounts etc - I would have avoided many of the mistakes I initially made. Still, you live and learn, eh?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday's Betting

Thankyou, Scott, aka The Sportsman Racing. One very nice winner (Kyllachy Storm - Bath - 7/2) contributed most to a fine day indeed. I was fortunate in that I'd placed my bet with Hills, an account which remarkably still provides me with the Best Odds Guarantee. Always nice when this is the case and the bet you've struck drifts in price yet still wins.

Dead even for On The Nose who found one winner from four bets (Highland Duke - Bath - 3/1). No luck for The Market Examiner (0/3) though.

One right in two from Sportyy (Bogomolov to bt Nieminen - 11/8) for a tiny profit.

A winning evening for Service X with two from two, although I was only able to get half the desired stake on one bet at an acceptable price. Still, it all adds to the coffers.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 23.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -25.36%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 17pts, -10.8pts, roi -63.52%
Total roi -22.27%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 17.5pts, +6.272pts, roi 35.84%, ROC 7.84%
Service X: Staked 123.2pts, +8.567pts, roi 6.95%, ROC 8.56%
Total roi 15.48%

Grand Total roi 3.42%




I have a dilemma. I've recently got into Stephen King. Always had him down as the author of bollocks horror stories, but I picked up Carrie when on holiday at a second hand book stall for pennies and really enjoyed it. Anyway, I'm now onto The Shining, which is great, but scary. Got me hooked. But, as of tomorrow, Helen is taking the kids down to her Mothers for a few days (that's real life horror story!) leaving me all on my lonesome. In an old house. With creaky floorboards.

Let's face it, people will have died in my bedroom. It's inevitable in a house of this age. And The Shining is creepy.

I need to get a grip of myself. I'm a grown man.

Where's my teddy?

Choosing new services. Science? Art? Bit of both?

Last week, Shane left the following comment on the blog:

Hello Rowan, this doesn't relate to the above piece but I have wanted to ask to you perhaps write a short blog on what you look for when selecting a new portfolio service? Do you solely rely on sources such as the Secret Betting Club appraisals before signing up, or do you work on the basis of other word of mouth?

Have found managing portfolio more suitable then making your own personal betting selections, or is this a time factor where you don't have time to do your analysis? It something I have always wondered,

And finally, could you take a look at this website www.soccerwidow.com it a porfolio site that makes selections soley on price value and not on form, through their statistical models. Price to join seems crazy but thought it be interesting to hear your opinions.

You know I have wasted written many words on this blog on the subject of judging when to evict services from the portfolio, but I haven't ever dedicated any posts to the subject of choosing which services to put into the portfolio and how I make those decisions. Over the next day or three, I'll try to address this topic. As ever, I can only give you a subjective opinion. Other people will have different methodologies I'm sure, different parameters upon which to judge the suitability of a service for themselves.

I will also take a look at the Soccer Widows website and give an opinion. A cursory glance has told me that I need to spend a bit of time on it before expressing my thoughts though, as there is a lot of information on the site to get through.


OK, the first thing I will say when it comes to choosing services is that I have learnt a huge amount through experience. I'm not embarrassed to admit that when I first started to construct my portfolio (and I use the word 'construct' very loosely here), I adopted a rather haphazard approach to the task. If a service looked good in terms of bottom line profit figures, in I'd wade like an over-enthusiastic duckling keen to impress it's parents first time in the big pond. Not surprisingly, many mistakes were made. I'd join services where I could never hope to make a profit because my stake value per point was far too low, so that even if a decent number of points profit was made, it would barely cover the cost of subscription fees. I joined services that I was simply not psychologically suited to - for someone who is naturally risk averse, having a portfolio of six services which had four services that played at long odds and for which lengthy losing runs were the norm wasn't very bright. I joined services that released their tips at what were for me, highly inconvenient times. And so on and so on. My approach had to change.

What I was obviously lacking was a clearly defined strategy. To have a strategy, you have to have an end game, a target. Figure out what your target is, and you can work backwards to work out the steps you need to take to hit it. Unfortunately it took me many months of joining and then leaving services before this realisation dawned on me. The day I did finally learn this lesson was the day I stopped making so many mistakes. Now, I think (and hope) that I can see exactly what a new service can bring to the portfolio before I jump in to subscribe. I can evaluate a service's potential strengths and weaknesses in the context of what it is I'm trying to achieve.

Having said that, for all the research that you can do, and for all the reviews you can read, sometimes you just have to follow your gut instinct. I believe in mine, and whenever I've had a particularly strong feeling about a service, I have just waded in. Perhaps the more experienced you get, the more signals you can subconsciously pick up and in fact what you put down as being your gut instinct is in fact the output from a brain that has absorbed certain details, processed them, and then spat out the results...ie. you should give this service a go. The last time this happened to me, I joined Summer Of Football. You could argue that if I was doing everything by the book, I was acting a little prematurely, but I've not had cause to regret my decision.

Other times, I've been fortunate enough to see something develop and have got to know the brains behind the scenes. Regular readers will know that this was the case with The Football Analyst. I got to know Graeme, could see what he was doing when in the process of developing his football systems, recognised that he has great analytical skills and came to the conclusion that if anyone was going to make a success of building a series of systems derived from ratings, it was him. It was a bit like going to a very impressive doctor - I knew I could put my faith in him. Hence I jumped straight in from Day 1 of TFA bets being released. No live proofing to fall back on. No incisive SBC report to read. Bang - straight in - and thank Dennis Bergkamp for that! Had I hesitated, I'd have missed out on a whole lot of profits.

The point I'm trying to make here is that thorough research, proofing, SBC reports etc are all incredibly important (in fact I'd go further than that and say that actually they are necessary if you want to get it right more times than you get it wrong), and that the ability to research and draw accurate conclusions from such material is a vitally important skill to possess when constructing a portfolio, at the end of it all, good old gut feel mixed with common sense can reap rich rewards. Sometimes, selecting the right services for you is as much art as science.

Tomorrow I'll talk about the role the SBC play, and other sources of information I use to identify services that I may want to watch with a view to subscribing at some point in the future.

But, as Bugs Bunny often said - for tonight at least - that's all folks.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday's Betting

£1.36 profit. Heh!

Quiet day.

A winner for The Sportsman Racing (Stand Of Glory - Thirsk - 8/13). You know I've heard it said that you can't find value in odds on shots, but if you back a horse at 8/13 that goes off at 4/11, I'd say value has been well and truly found!

The poor run that Winning Racing Tips (0/1) are currently enduring continued with their one (admittedly lightly staked) bet went down. No joy either for The Market Examiner (0/2).

Only Sportyy in action for the Sports portfolio, suffering a very small loss with one winner from three (Andujar to bt Matosevic - 2.08/1).


Month to date figures:

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1.5pts, -0.692pts, roi -46.16%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 14pts, -7.8pts, roi -55.71%
Total roi -37.01%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 14pts, +6.21pts, roi 44.35%, ROC 7.76%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.08%

Grand Total roi -1.24%


Back tomorrow.

Not much going on.

Right then. A quick round up of the weekend's betting tonight and then the plan is tomorrow to explore the subject raised by Shane in the 'Comments' section last week; how to choose a service for the portfolio.

Weekend's Betting

I'm currently going through one of those oh-so-familiar periods of treading water. Over a period of time, I've realised that this state of stasis is very much the norm. It seems that to a large extent, months are either made or broken by two or three days betting. A great weekend can lead to a good month. A bad weekend to a poor month. To date, we're still waiting for one or t'other to heavily influence August's output. Certainly after the weekend just gone, we're still waiting for those definitive couple of days.

Baby steps forward for Northern Monkey who up until Friday was suffering a poor week. A couple of placed efforts and a winner (Prodigality - Brighton - 4/1) produced a small profit after deductions were made for a loser on Friday. Saturday was a good day with two winners from three (Highland Colori - Newmarket - 4/1 and Postscript - Haydock - 7/1), but then no returns from two bets on Sunday.

Continuing to frustrate is On The Nose. Last week saw another nice priced winner found but what follows are a couple of steps backwards, a pattern that is becoming frustratingly familiar. However, it is very easy to forget that last month was a good one and this month to date is far from disastrous and beyond redemption. It's not, and a decent second half to August could see the second consecutive good month posted. I know The Judge is feeling a little more confident now that the weather and subsequent ground conditions have settled a little. Reasons for optimism, despite Friday and Saturday providing just the one horse placed from seven tips.

Very quiet weekend from The Market Examiner. Just two bets from Friday, neither of which were winners.

Finally on the racing front, just the one selection over the weekend from The Sportsman Racing, a loser.

So the racing continues to disappoint. On a portfolio basis, returns from the nags have been seriously underwhelming since the start of the year. No reason to react too drastically yet though. Let's see what happens between now and the end of December.


On to football/sports betting.

I will never get bored of reporting great weekends for tipping services. Yep, Summer Of Football have done it again! Six winning bets from seven since Friday makes for good tipping! Look, we all know that this run can't go on for ever. Trouble is, when a bad weekend does inevitably come along, it's going to hurt. You can get dangerously used to a service doing really well!

Form Lab Lite epitomise what is happening to the portfolio as a whole at the moment. A couple of winners here, a couple of losers there, and all in all it feels like it is wading through treacle. Still, no real damage done and in the grander scheme of things, there's a lot worse places to be. I guess the likes of Form Lab Lite and Sportyy are likely to come under a bit more pressure to perform consistently, simply due to the fact that they are more expensive to subscribe to than many. I'm not saying that this should be the case, but subconsciously at least, let's face it, it is a sentiment hard to avoid.

Talking of Sportyy, just the one bet over the weekend, and a nice winner at that (1.31/1).

Similarly, just one bet from The Sportsman, but unfortunately, an unsuccessful one.

It's been overdue, but a mediocre weekend for Service X. A bit like Summer Of Football, you got the feeling it had to happen. Having said that, it could have been a lot worse.

Month to date...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 12pts, -5.8pts, roi -48.33%
Total roi -39.88%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -7.89%
Sportyy: Staked 10.5pts, +6.63pts, roi 63.14%, ROC 8.28%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.75%

Grand Total roi -1.32%


Finally, more so than the Community Shield, the release of the Football Elite antepost bets makes you realise just how imminent is the start of the new football season. Some very interesting selections this year and I thought the rationale highly original in it's thinking and backed up with a sound logic based on the stats examined. Got to admit, I've a wee tingle about it all now. The Olympics have been and gone. Bring on the footie!

Friday. Yipee!

Dead short one as usual for a Friday. To be honest after yesterday's horrors, the less we dwell tonight the better anyway.

A couple of comments left after recent posts that I will definitely respond to on the blog early next week. Shane, that's your comment I'm referring to so bear with me.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday's Betting

Nightmare. As a result, we find ourselves right back to square one for the month again.

This should be quite easy.

Northern Monkey (0/1). On The Nose (0/3), although one did place to more or less return stakes. The Market Examiner (0/3). Winning Racing Tips (0/1).

Three from six called right by Service X but at the odds and with the staking, a loss nevertheless. Summer of Football and Form Lab Lite went for the same team (Botafogo) which lost, so a double whammy there.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 16.5pts, -12.75pts, roi -77.27%
On The Nose: Staked 16.5pts, -2.175pts, roi -13.18%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 10pts, -3.8pts, roi -38%
Total roi -47.4%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 6pts, +2pts, roi 33.33%, ROC 10%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 7pts, -0.435pts, roi -6.21%, ROC -0.87%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 95pts, +13.397pts, roi 14.1%, ROC 13.39%
Total roi 22.14%

Grand Total roi -1.76%


So, fingers crossed for Mo Farah tomorrow night. Not sure what I'm going to do with my evenings when the Olympics have finished. Write proper blog posts I suppose. :)

ROI for show. ROC for dough!...

...I think it was Graeme Dand of The Football Analyst that I heard first use that phrase. It made me look very closely at the fundamentals of my portfolio and altered my outlook a little. Until Graeme had drawn my attention to the importance of healthy ROC figures, I, like many I suspect, would judge a service on it's ROI figures pure and simple.

At the end of it all, what is most important to us gamblers is achieving a decent bottom line cash profit, is it not? How we get to it is not to be underestimated as a relevant factor of course, but ultimately a good profit is what we are seeking to achieve. When our gambling is looked at purely in these terms, we can see that there is more than one way to skin a cat.

What brought this to mind was a comment left after my recent post on the Summer Of Football service. Here is the comment:

Hi Rowan,

Good news for summer of football to be placed into the Hall of Fame!
I am not a member of SOF yet but what I really like about SOF is the low bank in relation to the high number of bets.
The bank is 25 points (recommended by SBC)
The number if bets per year is 400
To achieve a grow of 50 % of the bank in one year SOF needs 12.50 points profit, so a ROI of 3.13 % is enough to achieve that, so there is not much pressure on the ROI to have a good growth in bank. And the ROI of SOF was 7.82 % over the last 12 months so much more than 3.13 %!
With a lot of other systems you need a ROI of 10 % to grow the bank with 50 %.

Now I have a few question about the service practicality:
At what time (UK time) are the daily emails supplied?
Are the bets always supplied on the morning of games or sometimes the day before?

That explains things re. ROC rather well. It was the high ROC figure mentioned in the original SBC review of the service back in the early Spring that really drew my attention to Summer Of Football in the first place. It was, at that stage, at 120% for the previous twelve months' performance.

I'm not saying that suddenly we should forget all about ROI. It is still a highly significant measure of success or otherwise. It's just not the only parameter that we should be looking at.

To answer the questions posed at the end of the comment...

The bets usually come through at about 8.00 am on the day of the match taking place.
They are usually on the day of the match. I certainly have no issues at all regarding the practicality of following. In fact, the words I'd use to describe how I find following SOF? Dead easy.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday's Betting

Another decent day, this time due mainly to On The Nose who had just the one bet, a rather nice winner (Frozen Over - Brighton - 9/1).

The one Winning Racing Tips bet finished a close second to more or less return stakes.

No luck for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/2).

As far as the sports betting was concerned, Service X produced a profit, finding two winners from three.

No joy with the one Form Lab Lite bet.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 15.75pts, -12pts, roi -76.19%
On The Nose: Staked 14.5pts, -1.275pts, roi -8.79%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.7pts, -0.741pts, roi -27.47%
The Market Examiner: Staked 7pts, -0.8pts, roi 11.42%
Total roi -43.53%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 5pts, +3pts, roi 60%, ROC 15%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 6pts, +0.565pts, roi 9.41%, ROC 1.13%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 78pts, +17.465pts, roi 22.39%, ROC 17.46%
Total roi 34.28%

Grand Total roi 6.85%

Market forces.

Yesterday I backed a horse at an early morning price of 4/1. It went off at an SP of 11/1 before finishing 8th of 8.

I know the very occasional big drifter lands the spoils, but let's face it, when the market hollers loudly that a horse has little if any chance, you can write off your bet before the stalls open.

Why is that? I don't know enough about horse racing to come up with a theory that I'm satisfied with. Not a theory that forwards a legitimate, non-bent reason for why violent on-course drifters always perform so badly. I appreciate a horse may get to the track and perhaps not look fully keyed up, dissuading some from backing it. But even so, to drift so badly? Not sure I buy that.

I think if we're being honest, we all know the game is essentially bent. Betfair must provide a temptation that the Good Lord Himself wouldn't have been able to resist during his self-imposed sojourn in the Judaean desert. I can see it now. Satan approaches, laptop in hand, pointing at the market in the 3.20 at Damascus.

"I've got an 'orse!", proclaims the Devil. "Nailed on loser. Let's lay it now. We'll make a fortune together".

I'd like to think that JC would have reported Satan to the Jockey Club and gone back to his fast. But I reckon there are many "characters" in the racing game with not so lofty principals. And I reckon some of them were involved with the horse I backed yesterday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday's Betting

Another decent day with The Sportsman making a winning return from his midsummer break, picking a nice winner up in Scotland. I only managed to get 10/11 as opposed to the Evens recommended, due to that multi-national corporate organisation that is Ladbrokes, with annual profits that run into tens of millions, not letting me have as much as a fiver on anything.

No luck on the racing front - Northern Monkey (0/1), On The Nose (0/1), and The Market Examiner (0/1).

Sportyy showed a couple of points loss as they went 1/4. Decent profit though from Service X (3/3).


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 14pts, -10.25pts, roi -73.21%
On The Nose: Staked 13.5pts, -6.9pts, roi -51.11%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.2pts, -0.728pts, roi -33.11%
The Market Examiner: Staked 5pts, +1.2pts, roi 24%
Total roi -58.88%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 5pts, +3pts, roi 60%, ROC 15%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 5pts, +1.565pts, roi 31.3%, ROC 3.13%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 70pts, +15.097pts, roi 21.56%, ROC 15.097%
Total roi 38.3%

Grand Total roi 4.75%

Hall of Famer!

Well, it appears that it's not just me that has been impressed by Summer Of Football, the Secret Betting Club placing the service into it's Hall Of Fame. A big 'Well Done' to James and I wish him the all the best.

(By the way, James...I take it that's not you on your Twitter avatar!?! If so, you're not quite what I imagined you looking like!).

I do think that gaining SBC Hall of Fame entrance is one thing and staying in it another. I can imagine that with the qudos of membership to such an elite club comes additional pressure from increased numbers of subscribers, constant scrutiny and raised expectations. I'd liken it to a promising young footballer gaining his first professional contract with a big club. It's taken a whole lot of hard work to get there, but it's going to take a whole lot more hard work to become a long-term first team regular.

Of course, it's not just Summer Of Football that I have in my portfolio that will be going into the new season with newly acquired HoF status. The Football Analyst is in the same situation. I'm confident both service operators will take it all in their stride.


On another point, I've discovered today that Victoria Pendleton and I live in the same town. You know, there can't be too many cyclists in these parts that I haven't shaken my fist and shouted at at some point or other. Don't care if she is multiple-medalled golden girl...she undertakes me whilst I'm waiting at the lights, she's gonna know about it. No messing.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday's Betting

Very good start to the week, primarily due to a fine two point bet from Sportyy (Andujar to bt Lacko - ATP Toronto - 2.36/1). I'm reluctant to say for the fear of tempting the Gambling Gods looms large, but there are signs that Sportyy is finding some form. Cross fingers, eyes, toes and b**locks this is so.

Nice winner too for Northern Monkey (Lady Chapparal - Carlisle - 4/1), but the one On The Nose bet was a loser.


Month to date figures...

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 13.25pts, -9.5pts, roi -71.69%
On The Nose: Staked 12.5pts, -5.9pts, roi -49.16%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.2pts, -0.728pts, roi -33.11%
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, +2.2pts, roi 55%
Total roi -56.88%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 5pts, +3pts, roi 60%, ROC 15%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 5pts, +1.565pts, roi 31.3%, ROC 3.13%
Sportyy: Staked 3.5pts, +7.42pts, roi 212%, ROC 9.27%
Service X: Staked 61pts, +8.737pts, roi 14.32%, ROC 8.73%
Total roi 39.677%

Grand Total roi 2.12%

Pride!

You may recall earlier in the summer, during the Euros, that I caused a bit of a rumpus by declaring that I felt no national pride in the England football team; that I'd rather Arsenal win the Carling, Littlewoods, Coca Cola, Rumbelows, Worthless Cup than England win the tournament.

I've never been very patriotic. I mentioned at the time that I always wanted the England cricket team to triumph, but hey, if they didn't, I'd soon get over it. I could just never buy into the whole pride-in-the-nation thing that so many others obviously could. It wasn't in my makeup.

And then I watched the Olympics on Saturday night, and was truly moved. What an incredible, magical, unforgettable night of sport that was. Call me a great big softie, but I had a tear in my eye when the lovely Jessica Ennis was interviewed after that 800m run that brought the Gold medal in such exhilerating style. I had a lump in my throat as Mo Farah kicked for home at the end of a totally absorbing half an hour of tactical, punishing, rough running to claim his own piece of greatness. And the long jumper? The lad done good.

How refreshing is it though, to see massive achievement from athletes that come across as being "normal" people? Compare with so many Premiership footballers, obsessed only with how much they can earn, with what they drive, and who treat others - not least their employers - with so little respect. I don't remember seeing any Olympic athlete interviewed after winning a medal, coming across as being as egocentric or arrogant or plain nasty as so many in the England football team. The athletes simply come across as normal people, revelling in their fortune in having been born with a God-given talent, and who have worked so bloody hard to make as much of that talent as they possibly could.

Farah and Ennis - true representatives of our country. Two people taken to the country's heart. One of mixed heritage and the other an asylum seeking immigrant from Somalia. THAT is what finally, after 41 years, made me feel truly proud to be British. It was with that thought, when the Union Jack was hoisted after Ennis had been given her gold medal, when the majority of the 80,000 in the stadium had belted out the national anthem with exquisite passion, that made me think that this country isn't all bad after all. It has it's issues - let's face it, it's only a year on from the worst riots seen for many years that left the national mood somewhat different to how it is now - but it has it's good points too.

Isn't sport a magical thing?


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Weekend's Betting

Well so far this month, it's been a relapse into the pattern or losing money on the horses and seeing the sports side of the portfolio scrambling to minimise the effect on the bottom line figures. The weekend was a microcosm of this overall scenario, with a rotten weekend on the horses - Northern Monkey (0/5), On The Nose (one placed from six, no winners), The Market Examiner (0/1), Winning Racing Tips (one placed from two), and The Sportsman Racing (0/1).

Summer Of Football carried on where they left July though and found four winners from four. The service really is on a spectacular run at the moment, which we know won't last as variance strikes and results return to the norm. More impressive than the simple results over the last five or six weeks though is the mentality of James, the service operator. I hope he doesn't mind me printing this, an exerpt from a monthly review of the service he sent out to members today, as I haven't asked permission, but it does give an insight into his way of thinking and I'm sure he won't mind...

Remember to remain disciplined with and keep betting at proportional stakes to your betting bank. This current run will come to an end but I will do my best to avoid it. Interestingly my short list for yesterday had 4 bets on it which I ruled all of them out on value. 3 were losing bets and one was a void... I love it when that happens!

I have seen a bad run with the service. I remember a horrible weekend not long after I joined. These spells are of course inevitable, and will undoubtedly strike again at some point. But with the level-headedness with which James is treating this current golden spell, my confidence in SOF is growing and growing, and it is becoming what I would consider to be a long term part of the portfolio.

A mixed weekend for Form Lab Lite (one winner, one void bet, two losers) and break even for Service X (4/8). What I would say about Service X though is that through no fault of it's own, bets that are released on the Saturday are backed in a rather haphazard manner at present. I don't put money on if the price has collapsed and doesn't later rebound closer to kick off, and with my playing cricket, I'm missing as many bets as I'm hitting. I'm not unduly concerned though because of course the cricket season lasts only into early September, after which things will return to normal.

The month to date figures are below.

Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 12pts, -12pts, roi -100%
On The Nose: Staked 12pts, -5.4pts, roi -45%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.2pts, -0.728pts, roi -33.11%
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, +2.2pts, roi 55%
Total roi: -65.64%

Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 5pts, +3pts, roi 60%, ROC 15%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 5pts, +1.565pts, roi 31.3%, ROC 3.13%
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, +2.7pts, roi 180%, ROC 3.37%
Service X: Staked 61pts, +8.737pts, roi 14.32%, ROC 8.737%

Big profits!

So here we are again. Friday evening.

Pizza, beer, athletics. Sounds like a winning combination to me.

Thursday's Betting

You know how they say a profit is a profit? Well yesterday I made 4p. 4p! Not sure "they" are right. I could very easily have done without that 4p. And yes, I know the old saying about looking after the pennies so that the pounds look after themselves. But that's all bollocks really, isn't it.

4p. Pah.


No luck on the horses again yesterday for Northern Monkey (0/3) or On The Nose (0/2).

Service X again come in to balance things out (plus provide a mighty 4p overall profit, let's not forget!). Four winning bets from five. Can't complain.


You know I think I've got a bit of a thing for Jessica Ennis. It's probably because she's the first woman I've seen with a six-pack as well-defined as my own. Or not.

Waning standards.

So, another month off and running (who says I don't keep the blog topical, eh?).

Wednesday's Betting

A nice way to start the month for The Market Examiner which found a nice winner amongst their two selections (Links Drive Lady - Leicester - 5.2/1).

No joy though for Northern Monkey (0/2) or On The Nose, who will have been scratching at his eyes like Oedipus when he'd just discovered his bad news no doubt, when old favourite Hurricane Higgins landed the spoils at Goodwood. Had been 28/1 early doors. Drive you mad sometimes, this game.

Only Service X representing the sports services, and a decent time of it was had too, with three winners, a void and a loser from five bets.


Now, I've a confession to make. When I said I'd get the July Sports review sorted today, I'd forgotten I had cricket practice. To be honest, I'm struggling to blog properly at the moment. The athletics start tomorrow and I know the kids are looking forward to sitting down as a family to watch, I've got cricket again on Saturday, my 23rd (*ahem*) birthday celebration on Sunday, and the athletics all the while.

So anyway, what I'm trying to say is that the normal incredibly superb standard of blogging might just slip a wee bit over the next week or so. I'll continue with the daily updates but the meatier subjects will have to wait a bit.

Sorry an'all. Trust me. We'll be back to normal soon.

July racing review.

Before some comments on the racing side of the portfolio performance for July, a quick roundup of yesterday's action.

Tuesday's Betting

A very nicely profitable day to round off the month.

Grabbing the plaudits was On The Nose. I was genuinely chuffed for Dean when his tip at Goodwood (Uppercut - a little bit at 18/1, mostly 16/1) battled to victory in the 4.50. OTN has had a tough year but a good month, and it's great to see.

Elsewhere on the nags, there was no joy for Northern Monkey or The Market Examiner.

The Olympic tennis match that Sportyy got involved in (Raonic vs Tsonga) was notable for the fact that the final set result ended up at 25-23! Trouble is, the 25 was to Tsonga, and we were on Raonic.

Service X had a winner (0.94/1) from their only selection.


July - Racing

The final figures see that an roi of 9.28% was achieved, and you know something? I'm quite pleased with that. It's not a spectacular return, sure, but when we remember that the beginning of the month saw a continuation of the horrors of June with losses piling up as the inclement weather persisted, to finish with an roi just shy of 10% isn't too shabby.


On The Nose: Staked 33.25pts, +12.785pts, roi 38.45%
Well that's an roi not to be sniffed at! Obviously yesterday's winner boosted it somewhat, but believe me, it was only a matter of time until one of the bigger priced selections got home in front instead of in second place. There seem to have been an inordinate number of second place finishers for The Judge this month, including a run of five consecutively. I remember two of these being at 14/1, so just one or two of these second places ending up instead in the winner's enclosure could have seen the 30-40pt month that we know this service is capable of an actuality.

Northern Monkey: Staked 43.2pts, +6.719pts, roi 15.55%
A good, solid month from Wayne, much welcomed after a nasty June.

The Market Examiner: Staked 44pts, -14.83pts, roi -33.7%
A poor run towards the end of the month rather undid the good work put in at the beginning for TME. Got off to a good start for August today, mind.

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 11.1pts, -3.44pts, roi -30.99%
Tends to be a tricky period of the year for WRT, and 2012 has proven to be no different.

OK, that's it for the racing. All things being well I'll summarise the performance of the sports side of the portfolio tomorrow.

Got to admit, I'm enjoying the Olympics more than I had anticipated. I'd always looked forward to the athletics, but I've got to admit I've got sucked into the cycling, gymnastics (frightening what those folks can do!) and the rest. Trouble is, it doesn't leave much time for blogging, so sorry for the brevity of the posts at the moment.

Having said all that, if that Wiggins was to undercut me and sail through a red light that I was waiting at, I'd still take him out, Tour de France/Olympic gold medallist or not.

Laters.