It's been very quiet today, and after the frenzy of last week, it's felt a little strange to be honest. Details on performance further down.
On Friday I wrote:
"I do feel that tipsters, whether successful or unsuccessful, do change their style when it comes to Cheltenham. And as an "investor", such changes in approach are not what I particularly want to see. Qudos to Chasemaster this week, who have stuck to what they are good at and not been sucked in to the glamour of the Festival".
Matt of Football Elite picked me up on this, forming a persuasive argument that the nature of Cheltenham's festival racing can quite naturally lead a tipster to change their strategy for the four days and that the tipster is quite justified in doing so...
"To be fair to your racing services, personally I'd say you have to change your strategy for the really big meetings. I bet regularly in handicap hurdles and my strategy for run of the mill daily meetings is a lot different to my strategy come Cheltenham, Aintree etc as the make up of a race is totally different.
Personally I feel the big meetings are the ones that offer the biggest opportunities so I try and up my bet number and stakes.
Assuming the services you follow feel the same that may be why you have seen a difference from the norm."
I accept this point and Matt's comment got me thinking a little about how I reacted to events last week, and what my thought processes were when it was all happening.
The two services in which I noticed the biggest change in strategy from the norm were those adopted by Northern Monkey and On The Nose. As I have only been with each service from the beginning of this year, I think it fair to say that I have not had enough exposure to either of them to be even remotely qualified to pass comment on their strategy at all. However, the majority of my experience with NMP has been on the all weather and so to suddenly to see bets coming through for Cheltenham caused a raised eyebrow. What I would categorically say though is that at no time did I ever get the impression that Wayne was putting any less effort into his selections for the Festival than he does on any other 'normal' day. Actually, and I don't know this for a fact, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't devote more time than is usual to finding these selections. Whatever, he finished the Festival in profit and after all is said and done, it is the bottom line that matters.
Regarding On The Nose, the noticeable difference was in the number of points being wagered each day. Again, my eyebrows were raised at their being at least one tip in every race last week and staking between six and eight points per day was a new experience for me with this service. Well, I think I should inject Botox into my eyebrows to deny me of the ability to raise them! A quick look at OTN's Cheltenham Festival 2010 record (a fantastic level of profit) should have been enough in itself to prevent me querying their strategy.
So, what are the lessons to be learnt here? Firstly, that snap judgements are rarely the best type to make. Secondly, that it is long-term changes in strategy that should lead one to worry about the direction in which a service is heading, or perhaps a noticeable change that is implemented during an unprecedented losing run (which is not the situation for either NMP or OTN). Thirdly, I should think more before I speak. And finally, that perhaps as a gambler, you are more inclined to make snap judgements when things aren't going so well...would my gravity-defying eyebrows have spent any time at all at high altitude if the first day of the Festival had been a stormer? Probably not, if I'm being honest with myself.
It is this last point that I think is the most important one to learn from. It is so very easy to look for, and in your own mind find, reasons why things are not going as well as you would have hoped. I don't find myself constantly analysing services, roi achieved, staking, practicalities of following, etc, etc. when I'm doing well. When things are going well, I tend to find I go with the flow and do the appropriate analysis at the appropriate time, ie. at the end of the month. I should have realised last week that Cheltenham is different, that a tipster is, as Matt stated, fully justified in adapting their approach to the level of racing on offer. I should have realised that such racing can provide an increased number of value opportunities that can be exploited. Fortunately, I was actually (deep down) aware of this I believe - somewhere in the recesses of my mind was a small voice telling me forcefully not to do anything stupid (that would have been the voice of experience). Now that the dust has settled, I am pleased that I listened. This time last year, I'm not sure I would have done. I could easily imagine myself staking eight points on the OTN selections on the Tuesday, see all eight points go up in smoke, reduce stakes on the selections the following day and consequently have much less on Wednesday's 20/1 winner, Carlito Brigante, than I had on all the losers. And that would have been a right mess, all of my own making.
I have only been able to realise the above by engaging in some quiet contemplation over the weekend. Becalmed and less emotionally frazzled, I spent some time reflecting (not analyzing, you understand - there is a subtle difference) on how the week had gone and tried to rationalise my emotions at the time. I'll post tomorrow on what conclusions I came to. I think, judging from a comment that Jason of HCE submitted last week, they may be of particular interest to him.
Today's Action
Eerily quiet today. Only four bets all told.
Chasemaster came up with a nice winner from their only selection (Tartan Snow - Kelso - 11/2). Not using a BOG bookmaker bit me on the bum though with this one. When the bet came through, Sportingbet had 11/2 on offer which was the best available anywhere. The vast majority of Chasemaster's tips shorten in price and as this was a standout, I took the risk in the interest of helping protect the overused BOG accounts. Of course, before winning comfortably, the horse drifted on course to go off at 13/2.
Winning Racing Tips have so far this month (touch wood) been very consistent. Their tip today finished second (Cleaver - Lingfield - 12/1) and provided a return.
Still no winner from PJA NH and you know things are not going well when you get the odds on favourite beat but finish second to the 33/1 outsider of the field by less than a length (Duke Of Ormond - Lingfield - 7/1).
No returns from the one On The Nose selection.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.15pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, +0.28pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +0.825pts.
Total financial profit on the racing of £43.30.
Monday 21st March: Staked £74, +£43.30.
Week to date: Staked £74, +£43.30.
Month to date: Staked £11,578, +£413.35, roi 3.57%.
Likely to be a bit later tomorrow as there are a couple of bets on the footie.
Monday, 21 March 2011
Sunday, 20 March 2011
Poor end to a tough week.
It feels like it has been a long week. The excitement of Cheltenham, the losing days and the big 4PA rescue on the Friday, and now a poor weekend. If I could, I'd take a holiday from betting, just to recharge the batteries. But now is not the right time for that. That will have to wait.
Today's Action
Very quiet on the racing front, with only PJA and Northern Monkey in action. Neither service could find a winner, the only return coming from Northern Monkey, one of whose selections came third (Luisant - The Curragh - 9/2).
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.75pts, -0.687pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £28.74.
Unfortunately Football Elite had a poor weekend of it, two losers from two today. Shaolin Betting also had two selections, one of them a successful one (Chelsea -1 on the handicap vs City) for a small profit.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts.
Total financial loss on the football of £187.50.
Sunday 20th March: Staked £350, -£216.24.
Week: Staked £4,537, -£203.17.
Month to date: Staked £11,504, +£370.05, roi 3.21%.
So a losing week, the first for a little while. Wading through treacle is the phrase that comes to mind when I look at 2011 so far though. After staking over £40k, I'm the grand total of £140 up! This all seems a far cry from the nice profits made over the second half of last year, at a decent roi too. What has hit hard is that each month has seen a disaster month for either one or two services that has simply been too heavy for the remainder of the portfolio to do anything other than keep the whole thing afloat. I have heard that this is all part and parcel of the game, that it is not uncommon for portfolios to perform like this and in fact it is a good thing. The theory goes that if you can stay with your nose just above water whilst things are not going well, then you are in a great position when things take a turn for the better. This is the first time this has happened to me though, so whilst I understand it may all be natural, it is currently feeling like a struggle. Of course, when this period ends and good profits are made, I will feel all the stronger for working through what is happening at the moment. That is the value of experience. It's just a shame that there is only one way to gain it.
Today's Action
Very quiet on the racing front, with only PJA and Northern Monkey in action. Neither service could find a winner, the only return coming from Northern Monkey, one of whose selections came third (Luisant - The Curragh - 9/2).
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.75pts, -0.687pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £28.74.
Unfortunately Football Elite had a poor weekend of it, two losers from two today. Shaolin Betting also had two selections, one of them a successful one (Chelsea -1 on the handicap vs City) for a small profit.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts.
Total financial loss on the football of £187.50.
Sunday 20th March: Staked £350, -£216.24.
Week: Staked £4,537, -£203.17.
Month to date: Staked £11,504, +£370.05, roi 3.21%.
So a losing week, the first for a little while. Wading through treacle is the phrase that comes to mind when I look at 2011 so far though. After staking over £40k, I'm the grand total of £140 up! This all seems a far cry from the nice profits made over the second half of last year, at a decent roi too. What has hit hard is that each month has seen a disaster month for either one or two services that has simply been too heavy for the remainder of the portfolio to do anything other than keep the whole thing afloat. I have heard that this is all part and parcel of the game, that it is not uncommon for portfolios to perform like this and in fact it is a good thing. The theory goes that if you can stay with your nose just above water whilst things are not going well, then you are in a great position when things take a turn for the better. This is the first time this has happened to me though, so whilst I understand it may all be natural, it is currently feeling like a struggle. Of course, when this period ends and good profits are made, I will feel all the stronger for working through what is happening at the moment. That is the value of experience. It's just a shame that there is only one way to gain it.
Saturday, 19 March 2011
In the beginning...
A few days ago, Mark left a comment saying that he was considering starting betting on a portfolio basis, and asked if I could provide an "idiot's" guide to starting out. It is difficult to write a fully comprehensive post on this as there are so many things to take into consideration, but I have put together the fundamentals I think. Obviously if Mark, or anyone else for that matter, would like to dig into certain areas a little more, then don't hesitate to ask.
I must also add that I can only write things from my own perspective. I am not saying that the way I describe how to do things is the only way. It is simply a description of how I do things and what I have learnt from my experiences. I'm sure others have their own way of running a portfolio, and I'm not going to knock those other methods at all.
If you're reading this and are a bit too experienced for what is to follow, jump straight down to the 'Today's Action' bit, which is usually all you get from me at the weekend anyway!
So, without further ado...
Finances
Right, I'll start with something that you have no doubt heard a thousand times before in a thousand different places, but it is important. Get your betting bank, and stick it somewhere away from your day to day current or savings accounts. The reasons are obvious. Just do it.
In terms of what you put aside, yes of course it is dependant on how much you want or can afford to risk, but you also need to work out how much you will need for each service that you follow. The standard way to do this is to look at a service's results history, work out the biggest drawdown, and then double it. That is how large your bank needs to be.
Example: Service A you want to stake at £10/point. From looking at the service's results, you see that the worst drawdown is 47 points. You need a bank of 100 points (94 if you really want to be pedantic; personally I would just round it up) for this service, ie. £1,000. Don't confuse 'drawdown' with losing run. The worst losing run may be say, 25 points, but if the next bet won back a point, before embarking on another losing run of 19 points, then your drawdown is 43 points. What you're trying to do is set yourself up to be able to handle a worst case scenario, and the drawdown figure will give you some indication of what this might be. The worst losing run won't.
Naturally, you do this for each service you wish to follow.
Now there is 'leverage' that you can apply to your combined banks which will make your money go that bit further. This is a more advanced concept though and really requires a post on it's own.
Choosing your services
I believe that this is an area where it is so easy to fall down at the beginning. I know I chose some completely inappropriate tipsters to follow and continued to do so for months after I started.
I'm not talking about results here. I assume you're only going to follow services with a proven track record of success! I'm thinking more about choosing services that fit your personality better. If you don't think that you can hack long losing runs for example, don't follow a service that tips horses at an average price of 10/1. The danger here is that you set out all positively, the service has an inevitable losing run, you lose faith and either reduce stakes or perhaps stop following altogether. That of course is when the service returns to finding winners that you miss out on. After a week or two you start backing again by which time you have missed out on a load of returns and sod's law will dictate that the tips start losing again. I have been there. It is not a nice place to be.
The services you follow must also fit into your lifestyle. If you don't want to be putting bets on early on a Saturday morning, don't follow a service that issues bets early on a Saturday morning.
This takes a little introspection and you must be honest with yourself. Don't pretend to be something you're not. What I would say though, is that as you become more experienced, your aptitude to deal with losing runs improves and you may then find that you are better able to handle the services that play at the longer end of the odds range. At the start though, you want to be making life as easy for yourself as possible.
One last thing, and again a trap I have not so much fallen into in the past as hurled myself in nose first...a lot of services spring up, produce fantastic returns, and then over time fade away. I am (now) a strong believer in trying to follow experienced tipsters. If the 'Young Gun' really does have an edge, it will last. Don't be afraid of missing the boat and get sucked into a service that looks great at the moment, but may not last the pace.
Diversity
Personally, I prefer betting on football to racing. Generally speaking, you are open to fewer long losing runs and I often find that securing the best prices is more straightforward. However, many has been the time when my football bets have been heading south, but my racing bets have been strong, and vice versa. Diversity is key. There are all sort of principles of correlation that better writers than me have explained in a way more succinct and easy to understand than I could ever do, but believe me, these principles are important.
I think it was Tony Blair who once said, "Diversity, diversity, diversity!", and in those days, he did little wrong, you know.
Bookmakers
Another very simple point here. Open as many accounts as you can, and for football purposes, don't forget the Asians.
The more you can spread your bets around, the longer your accounts will be viable. Simples.
Record Keeping
How you keep records of your bets is very much the choice of the individual. If spreadsheets are your thing, fill yer boots. Obviously these will allow in depth analysis to the extent you'll be able to work out over time that if you dropped all bets on horses ridden by Barry Geraghty on a Tuesday when it is raining, you'll be much better off. Personally, I don't really go in for this. There is so much analysis done by others (eg. SBC, people on forums, etc.) that I can pick up all the most important trends/facts. I'm not knocking those that do this - it just isn't for me, that's all. But, what is very important is that you keep a full record of your bets and service performance. The bottom line is everything, and you need to know what it is.
Can you use pen and paper? Yep, if that's what works for you.
And there we have it. There is definitely room to explore some of the above points further of course, and if anyone wants to ask about any other aspect of running a portfolio, all they need do is ask. Mark...is this idiot-proof enough?
Today's Action
A shocking day on the horses today with not one solitary winner from 15 bets! The only service to perform with any credit was Winning Racing Tips which got three placed from three selections (Uncle Dermot - Lingfield - 7/2, Andreo Bambaleo - Newcastle - 8/1, and Enriching - Lingfield - 9/1). Good tipping, better than reflected in the returns, I would suggest.
Elsewhere was just a nightmare, with the only other placed selection being one of On The Nose's two (Basford Bob - Uttoxeter - 8/1). Blanks for 4PA, PJA NH, Northern Monkey Punter and Chasemaster.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -1.2pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.1pts, +0.5pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £214.
In credit on the football today was Skeeve, whose fabulous month continues. 3/3 for his main service although the 'Late BSS' service only found one from three to bring the profits down (wakey, wakey, old boy). Still a very solid overall performance though. Football Investor got seven from fifteen which normally you might expect to bring a points profit in double figures. This week however, many selections happened to be the home teams and the average odds was therefore a little shorter than usual. Nice returns nonetheless.
Just in debit was Strike Zone which picked three winners from six. Football Elite got one from three and Shaolin Betting only had the one selection which lost. Unusual on a Saturday but nothing today from The Sportsman or from The Football Analyst (I follow System 8-22).
Football Investor: Staked 15pts, +4.6pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 6pts, -0.417pts.
Skeeve: Staked 22pts, +5.664pts.
Football Elite: Staked 3pts, -0.745pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Financial profit on the football of £65.27.
Saturday 19th March: Staked £1,821, -£148.73.
Week to date: Staked £4,187, +£13.07.
Month to date: Staked £11,154, +£586.29, roi 5.25%.
And finally, what news of Graeme Dand - The Football Analyst - who was tantalisingly close to the jackpot in the 'Racing Post's' Cheltenham Festival competition? Well, the lad done good, as they say. Just not quite good enough! (but darned good all the same). He finished second, just five points off the winner. Gutted for him to be honest but he wins a decent sum for his efforts. If you're reading this Graeme, hard luck, mate - now get back to work with those footie systems and whatever it is you've won, dare you to stick it all on the next System 8-22 selection. You know it makes sense.
I must also add that I can only write things from my own perspective. I am not saying that the way I describe how to do things is the only way. It is simply a description of how I do things and what I have learnt from my experiences. I'm sure others have their own way of running a portfolio, and I'm not going to knock those other methods at all.
If you're reading this and are a bit too experienced for what is to follow, jump straight down to the 'Today's Action' bit, which is usually all you get from me at the weekend anyway!
So, without further ado...
Finances
Right, I'll start with something that you have no doubt heard a thousand times before in a thousand different places, but it is important. Get your betting bank, and stick it somewhere away from your day to day current or savings accounts. The reasons are obvious. Just do it.
In terms of what you put aside, yes of course it is dependant on how much you want or can afford to risk, but you also need to work out how much you will need for each service that you follow. The standard way to do this is to look at a service's results history, work out the biggest drawdown, and then double it. That is how large your bank needs to be.
Example: Service A you want to stake at £10/point. From looking at the service's results, you see that the worst drawdown is 47 points. You need a bank of 100 points (94 if you really want to be pedantic; personally I would just round it up) for this service, ie. £1,000. Don't confuse 'drawdown' with losing run. The worst losing run may be say, 25 points, but if the next bet won back a point, before embarking on another losing run of 19 points, then your drawdown is 43 points. What you're trying to do is set yourself up to be able to handle a worst case scenario, and the drawdown figure will give you some indication of what this might be. The worst losing run won't.
Naturally, you do this for each service you wish to follow.
Now there is 'leverage' that you can apply to your combined banks which will make your money go that bit further. This is a more advanced concept though and really requires a post on it's own.
Choosing your services
I believe that this is an area where it is so easy to fall down at the beginning. I know I chose some completely inappropriate tipsters to follow and continued to do so for months after I started.
I'm not talking about results here. I assume you're only going to follow services with a proven track record of success! I'm thinking more about choosing services that fit your personality better. If you don't think that you can hack long losing runs for example, don't follow a service that tips horses at an average price of 10/1. The danger here is that you set out all positively, the service has an inevitable losing run, you lose faith and either reduce stakes or perhaps stop following altogether. That of course is when the service returns to finding winners that you miss out on. After a week or two you start backing again by which time you have missed out on a load of returns and sod's law will dictate that the tips start losing again. I have been there. It is not a nice place to be.
The services you follow must also fit into your lifestyle. If you don't want to be putting bets on early on a Saturday morning, don't follow a service that issues bets early on a Saturday morning.
This takes a little introspection and you must be honest with yourself. Don't pretend to be something you're not. What I would say though, is that as you become more experienced, your aptitude to deal with losing runs improves and you may then find that you are better able to handle the services that play at the longer end of the odds range. At the start though, you want to be making life as easy for yourself as possible.
One last thing, and again a trap I have not so much fallen into in the past as hurled myself in nose first...a lot of services spring up, produce fantastic returns, and then over time fade away. I am (now) a strong believer in trying to follow experienced tipsters. If the 'Young Gun' really does have an edge, it will last. Don't be afraid of missing the boat and get sucked into a service that looks great at the moment, but may not last the pace.
Diversity
Personally, I prefer betting on football to racing. Generally speaking, you are open to fewer long losing runs and I often find that securing the best prices is more straightforward. However, many has been the time when my football bets have been heading south, but my racing bets have been strong, and vice versa. Diversity is key. There are all sort of principles of correlation that better writers than me have explained in a way more succinct and easy to understand than I could ever do, but believe me, these principles are important.
I think it was Tony Blair who once said, "Diversity, diversity, diversity!", and in those days, he did little wrong, you know.
Bookmakers
Another very simple point here. Open as many accounts as you can, and for football purposes, don't forget the Asians.
The more you can spread your bets around, the longer your accounts will be viable. Simples.
Record Keeping
How you keep records of your bets is very much the choice of the individual. If spreadsheets are your thing, fill yer boots. Obviously these will allow in depth analysis to the extent you'll be able to work out over time that if you dropped all bets on horses ridden by Barry Geraghty on a Tuesday when it is raining, you'll be much better off. Personally, I don't really go in for this. There is so much analysis done by others (eg. SBC, people on forums, etc.) that I can pick up all the most important trends/facts. I'm not knocking those that do this - it just isn't for me, that's all. But, what is very important is that you keep a full record of your bets and service performance. The bottom line is everything, and you need to know what it is.
Can you use pen and paper? Yep, if that's what works for you.
And there we have it. There is definitely room to explore some of the above points further of course, and if anyone wants to ask about any other aspect of running a portfolio, all they need do is ask. Mark...is this idiot-proof enough?
Today's Action
A shocking day on the horses today with not one solitary winner from 15 bets! The only service to perform with any credit was Winning Racing Tips which got three placed from three selections (Uncle Dermot - Lingfield - 7/2, Andreo Bambaleo - Newcastle - 8/1, and Enriching - Lingfield - 9/1). Good tipping, better than reflected in the returns, I would suggest.
Elsewhere was just a nightmare, with the only other placed selection being one of On The Nose's two (Basford Bob - Uttoxeter - 8/1). Blanks for 4PA, PJA NH, Northern Monkey Punter and Chasemaster.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -1.2pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.1pts, +0.5pts.
Total financial loss on the racing of £214.
In credit on the football today was Skeeve, whose fabulous month continues. 3/3 for his main service although the 'Late BSS' service only found one from three to bring the profits down (wakey, wakey, old boy). Still a very solid overall performance though. Football Investor got seven from fifteen which normally you might expect to bring a points profit in double figures. This week however, many selections happened to be the home teams and the average odds was therefore a little shorter than usual. Nice returns nonetheless.
Just in debit was Strike Zone which picked three winners from six. Football Elite got one from three and Shaolin Betting only had the one selection which lost. Unusual on a Saturday but nothing today from The Sportsman or from The Football Analyst (I follow System 8-22).
Football Investor: Staked 15pts, +4.6pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 6pts, -0.417pts.
Skeeve: Staked 22pts, +5.664pts.
Football Elite: Staked 3pts, -0.745pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Financial profit on the football of £65.27.
Saturday 19th March: Staked £1,821, -£148.73.
Week to date: Staked £4,187, +£13.07.
Month to date: Staked £11,154, +£586.29, roi 5.25%.
And finally, what news of Graeme Dand - The Football Analyst - who was tantalisingly close to the jackpot in the 'Racing Post's' Cheltenham Festival competition? Well, the lad done good, as they say. Just not quite good enough! (but darned good all the same). He finished second, just five points off the winner. Gutted for him to be honest but he wins a decent sum for his efforts. If you're reading this Graeme, hard luck, mate - now get back to work with those footie systems and whatever it is you've won, dare you to stick it all on the next System 8-22 selection. You know it makes sense.
Friday, 18 March 2011
A good end!
The start of the fourth and final day of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival is half an hour away. Whatever happens, even if by some chance we were to have a miraculously profitable day, I will be glad to see the back of it. This year has been a real eye opener. I love the spectacle and the sport itself is all that sport should be - dramatic, intense, deeply competitive, and honest. But as a gambler, I haven't enjoyed it. It is not the poor performance so far. That is a part and parcel of the game. No, what I feel fundamentally uncomfortable about is having four or five horses in the same competitive races, throughout each day. I do feel that tipsters, whether successful or unsuccessful, do change their style when it comes to Cheltenham. And as an "investor", such changes in approach are not what I particularly want to see. Qudos to Chasemaster this week, who have stuck to what they are good at and not been sucked in to the glamour of the Festival.
Moving forwards, this week may ultimately have some profound impact on the way I bet. Changes won't be immediate, but if I have six horses in the Gold Cup of 2012, as I have in the race this year, I would be surprised. Obviously I hope today is successful, but whether it is or if today is a blow out, there are implications to what I have seen over the last four days. You may be wondering if it was not the same at last year's Festival. It wasn't, simply because I wasn't following the number of services I am now.
So, whatever the future ramifications, let's hope for a great day today...
1.30: Triumph Hurdle
If I ever came to rely on gambling proceeds for my living, there is just no way I could watch the races. I am trembling like a leaf.
The best possible result in that race was Zarkandar. 1pt to win and half a point to place antepost at 8/1 from 4PA, and an each way antepost selection from The Sportsman at 7/1, plus a win only bet from OTN. It simply powered up the hill to win easily, and believe me, there was no greater sight!
4PA also played the other Nicholls horse Sam Winner each way at 7/1 this morning, and after coming off the bridle with a good mile to go and looking like it was running backwards, it came through with a storming late run to grab fourth place, paid out by the bookies on each way bets in this race.
The only loser was a small bet on A.Media Luz, OTN's second selection in the race.
What a great start! Plenty of time for it all to go wrong of course, but the adrenalin is not so much coursing through the veins as streaming through with no respect for the health of my heart.
COME ON!
2.05: County Handicap Hurdle
Back to earth with a bit of a bump. No horse staked big in the race but no returns from the four horses backed. Dirar was the choice of both PJA and OTN and finished the closest but still out of the frame. The other PJA tip - Alarazi - and the other OTN selection, the 50/1 Bellvano never threatened, and finally the NMP punt, Notus De La Tour raced prominently but faded in the closing stages. All feels a bit of an anticlimax to be honest. And of course, the psychology of it all kicks in and you start to think of getting no more returns today after such a fantastic start.
Quiet one, the next. Just the one horse with my money on it...
2.40: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Not a lot to say at all. OTN's Moonlight Driver was never in it.
Now for the biggie.
3.20: The Gold Cup
You know I don't really get emotionally attached to horses, but watching Kauto Star and Denman taking each other on from the bottom of the hill was quite spectacular stuff. OTN had Denman each way at 17/2 but momentarily, I can honestly say I forgot I had quite a bit of cash riding on this race, such was the enthralling nature of the action. However, as Long Run (5/1) loomed over them both, I remembered that this horse winning would be the best possible result and another great pick by 4PA to follow Zakarandar in the opener.
A truly great race, living up to hype and expectations, and profitable to boot.
NMP's two selections - Tidal Bay and Neptune Collonges were never in it, and Midnight Chase, the each way stab by Winning Racing Tips failed to ever really get competitive.
At only six years of age, 6/1 against Long Run for next year's Gold Cup strikes me as being a fair bet. Can't see anything else at this stage that could compete. Still, a year's a long time.
Am I being greedy? Can't help but think that one more good winner could make this a day to remember.
4.00: The Foxhunter's
4PA went for On The Fringe (4/1) here and although finishing in the frame, never threatened to win. OTN's tip, Jaunty Flight (20/1) was never in it.
Not long left now. One bet in the next and then perhaps a last hurrah in the 5.15.
4.40: Martin Pipe's Conditional Handicap Hurdle
Solitary OTN tip, Karasenir, is never in with a chance.
Just one to go, and it's a biggie. Get a result in this and it will have been a fantastic day.
5.15: Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Oh well, wasn't to be. 4PA had two in this and they happened to be the same two as identified by OTN - Shoreacres (8/1) and De Boitron (10/1). Either of those would have been very nice. PJA also had two in Oh Crick (10/1) and Tanks For That, but like so may of theirs at the moment, they were never in with a chance.
To be honest, I'm glad it's all over. It's been a good last day, but what I said at the top still applies. The Festival itself has been superb as it always seems to be. The Gold Cup today will be a race that lives very long in the memory and in time I think it will go down as one of the all time great races.
Just as a sidenote, there is a lot of tension in the air still. Graeme Dand (The Football Analyst) is very much in the running for the Racing Post's 'Select A Stable' competition. After Sir Des Champs won, he has a very real possibility of picking up the jackpot, which is not an inconsiderable amount. This could be the result of the week... I'll let you know what happens tomorrow.
4PA: Staked 7pts, +13.375pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 7.25pts, -1.687pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.1pt, +0.438pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Total financial profit on the racing of £599.52.
Friday 18th March: Staked £638, +£599.52.
Week to date: Staked £2,366, +£161.80.
Month to date: Staked £9,333, +£735.02, roi 7.87%.
It's been an interesting week, full of downs and then ups. There are a few issues to examine though once the dust has settled. More on these next week.
I'm off to get an early night.
Moving forwards, this week may ultimately have some profound impact on the way I bet. Changes won't be immediate, but if I have six horses in the Gold Cup of 2012, as I have in the race this year, I would be surprised. Obviously I hope today is successful, but whether it is or if today is a blow out, there are implications to what I have seen over the last four days. You may be wondering if it was not the same at last year's Festival. It wasn't, simply because I wasn't following the number of services I am now.
So, whatever the future ramifications, let's hope for a great day today...
1.30: Triumph Hurdle
If I ever came to rely on gambling proceeds for my living, there is just no way I could watch the races. I am trembling like a leaf.
The best possible result in that race was Zarkandar. 1pt to win and half a point to place antepost at 8/1 from 4PA, and an each way antepost selection from The Sportsman at 7/1, plus a win only bet from OTN. It simply powered up the hill to win easily, and believe me, there was no greater sight!
4PA also played the other Nicholls horse Sam Winner each way at 7/1 this morning, and after coming off the bridle with a good mile to go and looking like it was running backwards, it came through with a storming late run to grab fourth place, paid out by the bookies on each way bets in this race.
The only loser was a small bet on A.Media Luz, OTN's second selection in the race.
What a great start! Plenty of time for it all to go wrong of course, but the adrenalin is not so much coursing through the veins as streaming through with no respect for the health of my heart.
COME ON!
2.05: County Handicap Hurdle
Back to earth with a bit of a bump. No horse staked big in the race but no returns from the four horses backed. Dirar was the choice of both PJA and OTN and finished the closest but still out of the frame. The other PJA tip - Alarazi - and the other OTN selection, the 50/1 Bellvano never threatened, and finally the NMP punt, Notus De La Tour raced prominently but faded in the closing stages. All feels a bit of an anticlimax to be honest. And of course, the psychology of it all kicks in and you start to think of getting no more returns today after such a fantastic start.
Quiet one, the next. Just the one horse with my money on it...
2.40: Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Not a lot to say at all. OTN's Moonlight Driver was never in it.
Now for the biggie.
3.20: The Gold Cup
You know I don't really get emotionally attached to horses, but watching Kauto Star and Denman taking each other on from the bottom of the hill was quite spectacular stuff. OTN had Denman each way at 17/2 but momentarily, I can honestly say I forgot I had quite a bit of cash riding on this race, such was the enthralling nature of the action. However, as Long Run (5/1) loomed over them both, I remembered that this horse winning would be the best possible result and another great pick by 4PA to follow Zakarandar in the opener.
A truly great race, living up to hype and expectations, and profitable to boot.
NMP's two selections - Tidal Bay and Neptune Collonges were never in it, and Midnight Chase, the each way stab by Winning Racing Tips failed to ever really get competitive.
At only six years of age, 6/1 against Long Run for next year's Gold Cup strikes me as being a fair bet. Can't see anything else at this stage that could compete. Still, a year's a long time.
Am I being greedy? Can't help but think that one more good winner could make this a day to remember.
4.00: The Foxhunter's
4PA went for On The Fringe (4/1) here and although finishing in the frame, never threatened to win. OTN's tip, Jaunty Flight (20/1) was never in it.
Not long left now. One bet in the next and then perhaps a last hurrah in the 5.15.
4.40: Martin Pipe's Conditional Handicap Hurdle
Solitary OTN tip, Karasenir, is never in with a chance.
Just one to go, and it's a biggie. Get a result in this and it will have been a fantastic day.
5.15: Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Oh well, wasn't to be. 4PA had two in this and they happened to be the same two as identified by OTN - Shoreacres (8/1) and De Boitron (10/1). Either of those would have been very nice. PJA also had two in Oh Crick (10/1) and Tanks For That, but like so may of theirs at the moment, they were never in with a chance.
To be honest, I'm glad it's all over. It's been a good last day, but what I said at the top still applies. The Festival itself has been superb as it always seems to be. The Gold Cup today will be a race that lives very long in the memory and in time I think it will go down as one of the all time great races.
Just as a sidenote, there is a lot of tension in the air still. Graeme Dand (The Football Analyst) is very much in the running for the Racing Post's 'Select A Stable' competition. After Sir Des Champs won, he has a very real possibility of picking up the jackpot, which is not an inconsiderable amount. This could be the result of the week... I'll let you know what happens tomorrow.
4PA: Staked 7pts, +13.375pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
On The Nose: Staked 7.25pts, -1.687pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.1pt, +0.438pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Total financial profit on the racing of £599.52.
Friday 18th March: Staked £638, +£599.52.
Week to date: Staked £2,366, +£161.80.
Month to date: Staked £9,333, +£735.02, roi 7.87%.
It's been an interesting week, full of downs and then ups. There are a few issues to examine though once the dust has settled. More on these next week.
I'm off to get an early night.
Thursday, 17 March 2011
Down in the dumps.
All set for Day 3. 4PA has gone all conservative on us today, risking just a couple of points in the Ryanair. On The Nose (OTN) is looking to press home the advantage they gave themselves by yesterday's strong performance, putting eight points at risk today. Some juicy prices in there too. Potential to hit the jackpot or crash and burn.
1.30: Jewson Novice's Chase
Wishfull Thinking was the win only selection from OTN in the opener (7/2). Making nearly all, jumping beautifully, it looked like we could collect. Shadowing it for much of the way around was Loosen The Load, put up by Northern Monkey Punter (NMP) each way at 7s. This much was very encouraging, but from about a mile from home, Noble Prince under McCoy was travelling very sweetly indeed. You always worry a little more when McCoy is on one that is stalking yours, and in this instance, that anxiety was well founded. Coming to the last, Wishfull Thinking went for a big one, got it wrong, lost momentum, and Noble Prince swooped under a masterful ride to claim the winner's spot. Loosen My Load finished third so a small return there.
2.05: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
An expensive race. Lush Life was the big one, tipped up at 12/1 by both PJA and OTN. It was coming under strong pressure not too far from the front as it approached the winning line. Trouble was, there was another circuit to go. No, it wasn't Barry Geraghty having an almighty 'moment', it was just that the horse didn't seem interested (or perhaps was injured in some way). Either way, it was pulled up not long after. Hope springs eternal though, and Viking Blond, OTN's each way tip at 40/1, was running a decent race, going around in third/fourth. Rivage D'or, PJA's second tip was also going ok but unfortunately with both, when the race got serious at the bottom of the hill, they were found wanting.
Right. Time for 4PA to contribute something other than crippling losses...
2.40: Ryanair Chase
DISASTER!
Don't know why, but that race has me really hacked off. 4PA's tip, the favourite, Pocquelin each way (4/1 on a Hills special offer, and 11/4), finishes fourth and so the bad run continues. I'm a great fan of 4PA - performance has been outstanding - but it's non-performance this week is making life really tough.
J'y Vole was put up antepost by NMP and it ran well but didn't seem to last home, and OTN's Roberto Goldback (25/1) was never really competitive.
This is turning into a pretty bad day. Badly need a winner soon.
3.20: Stayers Hurdle
Well, that win has come, but the wrong horse really. Big Bucks came in to complete the NMP double (near 5/1) that he had with Quevega on the first day so a nice profit there, but the big bet was the Winning Racing Tips' each way selection Grand Crus (4/1). At one point I thought that Grand Crus was going to get up but Big Bucks powered away after the last. So a nibble taken out of the chunk of losses accrued today, as opposed to a bite. Trouble is, a nibble isn't particularly comforting to somebody who is starving hungry.
4.00: Byrne Group Plate
This is getting painful now. OTN had Quartz De Thaix antepost at 20/1 going off at 7/1 and coming nowhere. He also had Beautiful Sound this morning at 7/1 each way which was backed heavily into favouritism and after not being far from tailed off early in the race, finished strongly to take third. Edgebriar was NMP's tip - nowhere. Matuhi and Bible Lord were PJA tips - both nowhere.
Only the 4.40 left now for Cheltenham. A 24 runner, amateur riders handicap chase. Great. Oh, and one of the bets is win only at a double figure price!
4.40: The Fulke Walwyn Chase
Desperate.
Two selections from OTN (Saddler's Storm and Minella Theatre), neither of which were ever in it.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, +0.25pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, N/A.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 2.75pts, +1.219pts.
On The Nose: Staked 8pts, -5.937pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.125pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £241.86.
Thursday 17th March: Staked £522, -£241.86.
Week to date: Staked £1,728, -£437.72.
Month to date: Staked £8,695, +£135.75, roi 1.56%.
To be quite honest, I'm feeling pretty cheesed off. The first three months of this year are proving to be the hardest I have known. It is proving to be impossible to get ahead. Not losing money, not winning money. Two steps forward followed by two steps back. Cheltenham so far has more or less wiped out what had been promising progress this month. Perhaps tomorrow will be better. Let's hope so.
1.30: Jewson Novice's Chase
Wishfull Thinking was the win only selection from OTN in the opener (7/2). Making nearly all, jumping beautifully, it looked like we could collect. Shadowing it for much of the way around was Loosen The Load, put up by Northern Monkey Punter (NMP) each way at 7s. This much was very encouraging, but from about a mile from home, Noble Prince under McCoy was travelling very sweetly indeed. You always worry a little more when McCoy is on one that is stalking yours, and in this instance, that anxiety was well founded. Coming to the last, Wishfull Thinking went for a big one, got it wrong, lost momentum, and Noble Prince swooped under a masterful ride to claim the winner's spot. Loosen My Load finished third so a small return there.
2.05: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
An expensive race. Lush Life was the big one, tipped up at 12/1 by both PJA and OTN. It was coming under strong pressure not too far from the front as it approached the winning line. Trouble was, there was another circuit to go. No, it wasn't Barry Geraghty having an almighty 'moment', it was just that the horse didn't seem interested (or perhaps was injured in some way). Either way, it was pulled up not long after. Hope springs eternal though, and Viking Blond, OTN's each way tip at 40/1, was running a decent race, going around in third/fourth. Rivage D'or, PJA's second tip was also going ok but unfortunately with both, when the race got serious at the bottom of the hill, they were found wanting.
Right. Time for 4PA to contribute something other than crippling losses...
2.40: Ryanair Chase
DISASTER!
Don't know why, but that race has me really hacked off. 4PA's tip, the favourite, Pocquelin each way (4/1 on a Hills special offer, and 11/4), finishes fourth and so the bad run continues. I'm a great fan of 4PA - performance has been outstanding - but it's non-performance this week is making life really tough.
J'y Vole was put up antepost by NMP and it ran well but didn't seem to last home, and OTN's Roberto Goldback (25/1) was never really competitive.
This is turning into a pretty bad day. Badly need a winner soon.
3.20: Stayers Hurdle
Well, that win has come, but the wrong horse really. Big Bucks came in to complete the NMP double (near 5/1) that he had with Quevega on the first day so a nice profit there, but the big bet was the Winning Racing Tips' each way selection Grand Crus (4/1). At one point I thought that Grand Crus was going to get up but Big Bucks powered away after the last. So a nibble taken out of the chunk of losses accrued today, as opposed to a bite. Trouble is, a nibble isn't particularly comforting to somebody who is starving hungry.
4.00: Byrne Group Plate
This is getting painful now. OTN had Quartz De Thaix antepost at 20/1 going off at 7/1 and coming nowhere. He also had Beautiful Sound this morning at 7/1 each way which was backed heavily into favouritism and after not being far from tailed off early in the race, finished strongly to take third. Edgebriar was NMP's tip - nowhere. Matuhi and Bible Lord were PJA tips - both nowhere.
Only the 4.40 left now for Cheltenham. A 24 runner, amateur riders handicap chase. Great. Oh, and one of the bets is win only at a double figure price!
4.40: The Fulke Walwyn Chase
Desperate.
Two selections from OTN (Saddler's Storm and Minella Theatre), neither of which were ever in it.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, +0.25pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, N/A.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 2.75pts, +1.219pts.
On The Nose: Staked 8pts, -5.937pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.125pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £241.86.
Thursday 17th March: Staked £522, -£241.86.
Week to date: Staked £1,728, -£437.72.
Month to date: Staked £8,695, +£135.75, roi 1.56%.
To be quite honest, I'm feeling pretty cheesed off. The first three months of this year are proving to be the hardest I have known. It is proving to be impossible to get ahead. Not losing money, not winning money. Two steps forward followed by two steps back. Cheltenham so far has more or less wiped out what had been promising progress this month. Perhaps tomorrow will be better. Let's hope so.
Wednesday, 16 March 2011
A little light at the end of the tunnel...
What I thought I might do this week is jump on the Cheltenham bandwagon as it was rumbling on by. I wrote last night's post retrospectively. Today I changed this and instead wrote after each race. I quite enjoyed doing this and I hope it allows a little more of the emotions to come through. I will do the same tomorrow and Friday. On Saturday, I'll do Mark's post on setting up a portfolio as an idiot...(*that's me who is the idiot, you understand...not Mark).
1.30: Amateur Riders Novice Chase
Naturally looking to the first today to signify a change in yesterday's rotten fortunes, and it was yesterday's two culprits - 4PA and On The Nose - with an early chance for redemption. 4PA went for Aberdale win and each way at 12s, On The Nose had two single win bets on Beshabar (9/1) and Be There In Five (22/1). Aberdale never really got into contention, but I must say I found it galling to have Beshabar finish a game second and Be There In Five come third and yet receive no return at all. Can't remember the last time I backed a 22/1 shot win only. Actually, not sure "galling" sums it up!
2.05: Neptune Novices' Hurdle
I don't know who the guy at On The Nose has upset, but I wish he'd go and apologise and ask for forgiveness. Mind you, it's me saying the Hail Mary's now as I can't seem to buy a winner at Cheltenham. Rock On Ruby (15/2) was the only bet in this race, again from On The Nose, again win only. Travelling well throughout the race, I thought I had a chance here from some way out. Jumping the last hurdle, it went a length clear before being overtaken in what were literally the last two strides of the race. What is this now, "Super Galling", "Mega Galling"!?! Whatever, I am well and truly galled.
So On The Nose has had three selections so far today. All three have placed, and no returns have been provided. Surely a change of luck is due? Please...
2.40: The RSA Chase
Yes! A return! Get in! A winner at last? No, don't be daft.
On The Nose reverts to each way betting which with the benefit of hindsight is, let's face it, two races late. However, at the moment I'll take anything and Wayward Prince (9/1) finishes third under a typical driving ride from McCoy. It was actually gaining ground on the winner after the last and another 50 yards or so would have made things interesting. Having said that, as they flashed past the post, I wasn't certain that it hadn't got chinned for third which quite frankly, would have been too much but oh so typical based on what has gone before. Northern Monkey had tipped Wayward Prince at 12s a little while ago, but win only unfortunately. He also had The Great Booster (or something) each way at 33s. It may have well have been called The Great Jessie for the way it unseated it's rider early in the race.
It's a sign of how desperate things have become when I feel great relief at gaining some sort of return, even if the actual race produced a loss! On The Nose has now had all today's selections run great races. Got a feeling in me bones he might just fire in a winner or two before too much longer.
Meanwhile, over at Sedgefield in the 2.55, Chasemaster's speculative selection - Absolute Shambles - shows that it must have been named by Doris Stokes. Still, at least it's not only Cheltenham where we can't find winners.
3.20: The Champion Chase
Well, well, well. Would you believe it? A winner at Cheltenham, the first (and I pray not the last, although I wouldn't lay odds much above Evens about it being so) being provided antepost by Northern Monkey. Sizing Europe (12/1) won in a way that any punter likes to see. Always prominent, jumping beautifully, leaps the last in front and then powers away up the hill.
On The Nose had given Master Minded (4/1). Funny watching the market before the race. In the space of about a minute, Master Minded went from 3s to 2/1. In a market this strong, that must take a bit of doing. Sizing Europe meanwhile, opened at 8s and drifted to what was 11s at one point. Tells you something, I think. I'm just not too sure what.
Anyway, forget that...let the floodgates open...
4.00: The Coral Cup
Wey hey! With the demise of the big 4PA tip (Ballyhaunis - 16/1) I wouldn't say that the floodgates have opened, but step forward On The Nose. Carlito Brigante (20/1) scooted in and ensured a nice profit on the race. This is a bit more like it. I quite like Cheltenham again.
Northern Monkey and On The Nose also had Bothy each way at 14s and that came home second. Being serious, the standard of tipping from On The Nose today has been superb; it just hasn't really been reflected in hard returns.
Am I being a touch churlish though if I resent the fall of For Non Stop at the last when seemingly nailed on for second place (a PJA NH tip each way at 7/1)?
4.40: The Fred Winter
Well, after all the excitement of the last two races, a bit of an anticlimax. Only a small On The Nose bet on Paintball at 9/1. Travelled well but then found nothing when push came to shove.
Next...
5.15: Champion Bumper
And the anticlimax becomes a fizzle out...On The Nose's Raise The Beat (10/1) starts mid-division, races mid-division, and finishes mid-division.
4PA: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2pts, -1.118pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.75pts, +3.625pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.125pts, -0.112pts.
On The Nose: Staked 6.25pts, +11.125pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £78.16.
Wednesday 16th March: Staked £435, +£78.16.
Week to date: Staked £1,176, -£195.86.
Month to date: Staked £8,143, +£377.61, roi 4.63%.
So, better than yesterday then, but still a little frustrated. On The Nose has had a very good day, but I can't shake the niggle that it could have been even better. Northern Monkey had an overdue decent time of it, too. Ultimately though, for Cheltenham to be a punting success, I do think 4PA need to come good. Hopefully, that will happen tomorrow.
Right, a check list...Fingers crossed, check. Lucky heather in place, check. Horseshoe placed above the door, check. Three goats sacrificed at a burning altar, check.
1.30: Amateur Riders Novice Chase
Naturally looking to the first today to signify a change in yesterday's rotten fortunes, and it was yesterday's two culprits - 4PA and On The Nose - with an early chance for redemption. 4PA went for Aberdale win and each way at 12s, On The Nose had two single win bets on Beshabar (9/1) and Be There In Five (22/1). Aberdale never really got into contention, but I must say I found it galling to have Beshabar finish a game second and Be There In Five come third and yet receive no return at all. Can't remember the last time I backed a 22/1 shot win only. Actually, not sure "galling" sums it up!
2.05: Neptune Novices' Hurdle
I don't know who the guy at On The Nose has upset, but I wish he'd go and apologise and ask for forgiveness. Mind you, it's me saying the Hail Mary's now as I can't seem to buy a winner at Cheltenham. Rock On Ruby (15/2) was the only bet in this race, again from On The Nose, again win only. Travelling well throughout the race, I thought I had a chance here from some way out. Jumping the last hurdle, it went a length clear before being overtaken in what were literally the last two strides of the race. What is this now, "Super Galling", "Mega Galling"!?! Whatever, I am well and truly galled.
So On The Nose has had three selections so far today. All three have placed, and no returns have been provided. Surely a change of luck is due? Please...
2.40: The RSA Chase
Yes! A return! Get in! A winner at last? No, don't be daft.
On The Nose reverts to each way betting which with the benefit of hindsight is, let's face it, two races late. However, at the moment I'll take anything and Wayward Prince (9/1) finishes third under a typical driving ride from McCoy. It was actually gaining ground on the winner after the last and another 50 yards or so would have made things interesting. Having said that, as they flashed past the post, I wasn't certain that it hadn't got chinned for third which quite frankly, would have been too much but oh so typical based on what has gone before. Northern Monkey had tipped Wayward Prince at 12s a little while ago, but win only unfortunately. He also had The Great Booster (or something) each way at 33s. It may have well have been called The Great Jessie for the way it unseated it's rider early in the race.
It's a sign of how desperate things have become when I feel great relief at gaining some sort of return, even if the actual race produced a loss! On The Nose has now had all today's selections run great races. Got a feeling in me bones he might just fire in a winner or two before too much longer.
Meanwhile, over at Sedgefield in the 2.55, Chasemaster's speculative selection - Absolute Shambles - shows that it must have been named by Doris Stokes. Still, at least it's not only Cheltenham where we can't find winners.
3.20: The Champion Chase
Well, well, well. Would you believe it? A winner at Cheltenham, the first (and I pray not the last, although I wouldn't lay odds much above Evens about it being so) being provided antepost by Northern Monkey. Sizing Europe (12/1) won in a way that any punter likes to see. Always prominent, jumping beautifully, leaps the last in front and then powers away up the hill.
On The Nose had given Master Minded (4/1). Funny watching the market before the race. In the space of about a minute, Master Minded went from 3s to 2/1. In a market this strong, that must take a bit of doing. Sizing Europe meanwhile, opened at 8s and drifted to what was 11s at one point. Tells you something, I think. I'm just not too sure what.
Anyway, forget that...let the floodgates open...
4.00: The Coral Cup
Wey hey! With the demise of the big 4PA tip (Ballyhaunis - 16/1) I wouldn't say that the floodgates have opened, but step forward On The Nose. Carlito Brigante (20/1) scooted in and ensured a nice profit on the race. This is a bit more like it. I quite like Cheltenham again.
Northern Monkey and On The Nose also had Bothy each way at 14s and that came home second. Being serious, the standard of tipping from On The Nose today has been superb; it just hasn't really been reflected in hard returns.
Am I being a touch churlish though if I resent the fall of For Non Stop at the last when seemingly nailed on for second place (a PJA NH tip each way at 7/1)?
4.40: The Fred Winter
Well, after all the excitement of the last two races, a bit of an anticlimax. Only a small On The Nose bet on Paintball at 9/1. Travelled well but then found nothing when push came to shove.
Next...
5.15: Champion Bumper
And the anticlimax becomes a fizzle out...On The Nose's Raise The Beat (10/1) starts mid-division, races mid-division, and finishes mid-division.
4PA: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2pts, -1.118pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.75pts, +3.625pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.125pts, -0.112pts.
On The Nose: Staked 6.25pts, +11.125pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £78.16.
Wednesday 16th March: Staked £435, +£78.16.
Week to date: Staked £1,176, -£195.86.
Month to date: Staked £8,143, +£377.61, roi 4.63%.
So, better than yesterday then, but still a little frustrated. On The Nose has had a very good day, but I can't shake the niggle that it could have been even better. Northern Monkey had an overdue decent time of it, too. Ultimately though, for Cheltenham to be a punting success, I do think 4PA need to come good. Hopefully, that will happen tomorrow.
Right, a check list...Fingers crossed, check. Lucky heather in place, check. Horseshoe placed above the door, check. Three goats sacrificed at a burning altar, check.
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Cheltenham - Pfff!
Time booked off work. A crisp copy of the Racing Post pored over eagerly whilst enjoying a leisurely breakfast. Tipsters anxious to make their mark over the Festival week sending through tips at all hours (1.40 in the morning in the case of On The Nose!). Watching 'The Morning Line' on Channel 4 adding to the keen sense of anticipation. Can't wait for it all to start.
And then it does start. Oh, dear.
1.30: The Supreme Novices' Hurdle
On The Nose, who have a selection in every Cheltenham race, look for a solid start by backing hot favourite Cue Card (5/2) and Northern Monky Punter (NMP) go for an outsider that a few different parties mention in dispatches - Magan's Star (28/1) each way. I have a curious and unfounded gut feel for Magan's Star based on no logic other than my daughter's name (Maegan) is pronounced the same way. Written in the stars, no? No. Magan's Whatever runs prominently but weakens quickly as the race gets serious. No matter. Surely Cue Card, one of the bankers of the meeting will win, won't it? No. It won't.
2.05: The Arkle
Medermit is very much in my corner. The Sportsman gave it last week antepost (4/1 each way) and On The Nose go for it too (3/1). Chasemaster manage to find a Cheltenham bet (they sound surprised in their email) and go for Realt Dubh (9/1 each way).
Medermit never quite seems to be going too well. It disappoints. Realt Dubh however, runs a solid race to claim a place and a small profit. I was hoping to get off to a decent start, especially as I'd backed the favourites in the opening two races, but it wasn't to be. Still, not too much damage done, especially as ProBandit had found the winner of the opener at Southwell (Where's Reilly - 7/4). All to play for.
2.40: Grade 3 Handicap
Right. This is where we start to get serious. 4PA, who I pronounced at the beginning of this month possibly holds the fate of March in it's hands, is into the action. Sunnyhillboy (6/1) under McCoy to win, and it is being backed on course too. Confidence is boosted by the fact that On The Nose have also stuck it up. 4PA also suggest a cheeky each way on a long shot, The Rainbow Hunter (25/1) and there are two seemingly relatively insignificant bets (stakes wise) from PJA NH - Great Endeavour (7/1) and Carole's Legacy (14/1). Oh, and On The Nose and NMP also try an each way at fancy prices (25/1) on Razor Royale.
Disaster as fairly early on in the race Sunnyhillboy dumps McCoy in such an unceremonious fashion it somehow doesn't seem befitting of a champion jockey and Sports Personality of the Year. Still, The Rainbow Hunter is racing prominently, Great Endeavour is blazing a trail and jumping like a stag, and Carole's Legacy ain't too far behind. All is not lost. Well, not quite all. The Rainbow Hunter gradually fades away in the way you would possibly expect of a 25/1 shot if you weren't so full of blind optimism (which, by the way, is beginning to fade fast), Great Endeavour approaches the last in line with two others with all to fight for and falls, and Carole's Legacy runs a brave race but fails to get the better of Bensalem in the run-in.
In a race in which I have staked £185, the only return I get is on the place part of a £5 each way bet. Not good.
3.20: The Champion Hurdle
The Sportsman advised Peddler's Cross at 20/1 back in September. Today, it started 9/2 third favourite. The Sportsman suggests an in running lay at 3.2, and I'm glad he did. My only real result of the day, as my lay is matched and Peddlers Cross is outbattled on the run in to finish second. Still, a good profit for The Sportsman, but it would have been better if the beast had won. Unfortunately, On The Nose had Peddlers to win.
If going against the crowd is the secret to betting success, NMP should have picked up a return by selecting last year's Supreme flop, Dunguib (10/1) each way. I don't suppose it flopped today, but it might as well have done for the returns provided!
4.00: The Cross Country Chase
This is where my disappointment reached it's zenith. 4PA went for a big bet on Maljimar (6/1). Heavily backed, it goes off as favourite. Garde Champetre is the On The Nose tip.
Maljimar bides it's time through the first three miles of the near four mile race. Making steady progress through the field, things are looking good. I can feel my heart beginning to pound a little (well, a lot, actually) faster. It is going like a dream with two to go. Surely this is where we hit the jackpot. Approaching the last things are still looking good - the jock surely just has to say "go". Jumping the last it is in a battle for the lead, but I still think we'll be ok....it finishes fourth, beaten a nose for third. Still, I get the stake back with there being 16 runners.
Naturally, Garde Champetre, backed win only, finishes second of the 15 (FIFTEEN) protagonists - there was a non-runner. Ho hum.
4.40: Mare's Hurdle
Optimistic as ever, On The Nose goes for Alegralil each way at 16/1 in the without Quevega market. It runs well. It finishes nowhere.
Still, at least easy winner Quevega is double up with a horse later in the week for NMP. Fingers crossed.
5.15: Novice Handicap Chase
Today's last shot at redemption. Both On The Nose and 4PA go for Definity (13/2). It goes off as 3/1 favourite. Ruby Walsh is on board. He's not in bad form, you know. You can guess the rest.
Today's Action
On The Nose: Staked 8 (eight!) pts, -8pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, +0.181pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.188pts, +0.568pts.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -0.125pts.
4PA: Staked 5pts, -5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, +0.813pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £285.62.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Strike Zone: Staked 1pt, +0.35pts.
Financial profit on the football of £2.50.
Tuesday 15th March: Staked £668.50, -£283.12.
Week to date: Staked £741, -£274.02.
Month to date: Staked £7,708, +£299.45, roi 3.88%.
So, my highlight of the opening day at Cheltenham? Backing the winner of the first at Southwell. Not sure it should be like that!
And then it does start. Oh, dear.
1.30: The Supreme Novices' Hurdle
On The Nose, who have a selection in every Cheltenham race, look for a solid start by backing hot favourite Cue Card (5/2) and Northern Monky Punter (NMP) go for an outsider that a few different parties mention in dispatches - Magan's Star (28/1) each way. I have a curious and unfounded gut feel for Magan's Star based on no logic other than my daughter's name (Maegan) is pronounced the same way. Written in the stars, no? No. Magan's Whatever runs prominently but weakens quickly as the race gets serious. No matter. Surely Cue Card, one of the bankers of the meeting will win, won't it? No. It won't.
2.05: The Arkle
Medermit is very much in my corner. The Sportsman gave it last week antepost (4/1 each way) and On The Nose go for it too (3/1). Chasemaster manage to find a Cheltenham bet (they sound surprised in their email) and go for Realt Dubh (9/1 each way).
Medermit never quite seems to be going too well. It disappoints. Realt Dubh however, runs a solid race to claim a place and a small profit. I was hoping to get off to a decent start, especially as I'd backed the favourites in the opening two races, but it wasn't to be. Still, not too much damage done, especially as ProBandit had found the winner of the opener at Southwell (Where's Reilly - 7/4). All to play for.
2.40: Grade 3 Handicap
Right. This is where we start to get serious. 4PA, who I pronounced at the beginning of this month possibly holds the fate of March in it's hands, is into the action. Sunnyhillboy (6/1) under McCoy to win, and it is being backed on course too. Confidence is boosted by the fact that On The Nose have also stuck it up. 4PA also suggest a cheeky each way on a long shot, The Rainbow Hunter (25/1) and there are two seemingly relatively insignificant bets (stakes wise) from PJA NH - Great Endeavour (7/1) and Carole's Legacy (14/1). Oh, and On The Nose and NMP also try an each way at fancy prices (25/1) on Razor Royale.
Disaster as fairly early on in the race Sunnyhillboy dumps McCoy in such an unceremonious fashion it somehow doesn't seem befitting of a champion jockey and Sports Personality of the Year. Still, The Rainbow Hunter is racing prominently, Great Endeavour is blazing a trail and jumping like a stag, and Carole's Legacy ain't too far behind. All is not lost. Well, not quite all. The Rainbow Hunter gradually fades away in the way you would possibly expect of a 25/1 shot if you weren't so full of blind optimism (which, by the way, is beginning to fade fast), Great Endeavour approaches the last in line with two others with all to fight for and falls, and Carole's Legacy runs a brave race but fails to get the better of Bensalem in the run-in.
In a race in which I have staked £185, the only return I get is on the place part of a £5 each way bet. Not good.
3.20: The Champion Hurdle
The Sportsman advised Peddler's Cross at 20/1 back in September. Today, it started 9/2 third favourite. The Sportsman suggests an in running lay at 3.2, and I'm glad he did. My only real result of the day, as my lay is matched and Peddlers Cross is outbattled on the run in to finish second. Still, a good profit for The Sportsman, but it would have been better if the beast had won. Unfortunately, On The Nose had Peddlers to win.
If going against the crowd is the secret to betting success, NMP should have picked up a return by selecting last year's Supreme flop, Dunguib (10/1) each way. I don't suppose it flopped today, but it might as well have done for the returns provided!
4.00: The Cross Country Chase
This is where my disappointment reached it's zenith. 4PA went for a big bet on Maljimar (6/1). Heavily backed, it goes off as favourite. Garde Champetre is the On The Nose tip.
Maljimar bides it's time through the first three miles of the near four mile race. Making steady progress through the field, things are looking good. I can feel my heart beginning to pound a little (well, a lot, actually) faster. It is going like a dream with two to go. Surely this is where we hit the jackpot. Approaching the last things are still looking good - the jock surely just has to say "go". Jumping the last it is in a battle for the lead, but I still think we'll be ok....it finishes fourth, beaten a nose for third. Still, I get the stake back with there being 16 runners.
Naturally, Garde Champetre, backed win only, finishes second of the 15 (FIFTEEN) protagonists - there was a non-runner. Ho hum.
4.40: Mare's Hurdle
Optimistic as ever, On The Nose goes for Alegralil each way at 16/1 in the without Quevega market. It runs well. It finishes nowhere.
Still, at least easy winner Quevega is double up with a horse later in the week for NMP. Fingers crossed.
5.15: Novice Handicap Chase
Today's last shot at redemption. Both On The Nose and 4PA go for Definity (13/2). It goes off as 3/1 favourite. Ruby Walsh is on board. He's not in bad form, you know. You can guess the rest.
Today's Action
On The Nose: Staked 8 (eight!) pts, -8pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, +0.181pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.188pts, +0.568pts.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -0.125pts.
4PA: Staked 5pts, -5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, +0.813pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £285.62.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Strike Zone: Staked 1pt, +0.35pts.
Financial profit on the football of £2.50.
Tuesday 15th March: Staked £668.50, -£283.12.
Week to date: Staked £741, -£274.02.
Month to date: Staked £7,708, +£299.45, roi 3.88%.
So, my highlight of the opening day at Cheltenham? Backing the winner of the first at Southwell. Not sure it should be like that!
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