Eng-er-land!

Well, well, well. England top the group, eh.

To be completely honest with you, I've never been patriotic when it comes to football. Couldn't care two shakes of a rat's tail about Eng-er-land but tonight I felt as patriotic as Winston Churchill. Shallow I know, but it was simply due to the fact I'd backed them.

Watching the match though, it struck me that despite his undoubted "leadership" qualities (which include shagging your teammate's bird, of course!), "JT" is becoming an increasing liability. Sure, he puts his head in where it hurts and can make a good tackle, but as one Tweeter put it, "HEROIC DEFENDING FROM JOHN TERRY who was caught under the high ball, outpaced and then failed to stop it going over the line".

Quite, although I'm sure many will disagree. Perhaps he'll have a stormer against Italy.

Ashley Cole on the other hand...world class.



Wayne of Northern Monkey sent his first Royal Ascot email out last night. As is his style, Wayne's opening paragraph made reference to the performance of the tips issued that had run that day.

Yesterday evening's opening paragraph made an apology to subscribers for recent poor performance. It made me realise just how quickly fortunes can change for a tipster and how easily good winning runs or painful losing runs can be forgotten. Wayne felt the need to apologise (although I have to say I haven't personally felt that one was necessary) despite the fact that it was only last month that he enjoyed what I believe was his best ever singular month's results. Sure, 2012 has not been a vintage year so far for Northern Monkey, but 2011 was strong and an overall performance in and around the 20% roi mark can only be labelled as outstanding.

As I alluded to yesterday, On The Nose are struggling too. Again, looking at the overall stats for the service (17% roi), we can see that all logic states that this is merely a fallow period that is an inevitable part of gambling. I think I'm long enough in the tooth now to realise this, and to keep ploughing away until it's the time to harvest and make hay whilst the sun shines, as it surely will again. (That's enough farming analogy for one day, I think!). If we get to the point where a drawdown for any service reaches the size of the bank allocated to it, then it could well be time to review and change course, but we're a long way from that yet with any of the services I follow. Until then, onwards and hopefully not before too long, upwards.


Today's Betting

Well, perhaps the first step on that upwards curve was taken today by On The Nose who found a very nice winner (Most Improved - Royal Ascot - 9/1). Nice one, Dean. :) (And you can't help but smile at the irony in the name of the winner.)

No joy for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/2). Winning Racing Tips found one to place and followed that up with a loser, unfortunately.

Sportyy back in action today and although staked conservatively, found a cracking winner (Matosevic to beat Gasquet - 4/1). Can't say I'd ever seen Matosevic before, and to knock the No.1 seed out after losing the first set 1-6 was quite the performance!

Two bets this evening for Form Lab Lite. The aforesaid Eng-er-land to win bet, but over 2.5 goals in the France match.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +4.625pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.8pts, -0.924pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.

Sportyy: Staked 0.5pts, +2pts.
Form Lab Lite: Staked 2pts, +0.235pts.


So no Euros tomorrow. Not sure what I'm going to do with myself.

Weekend Round Up

Uninspiring, is the word I would use to describe the weekend just gone. It's been the Klass-Jan Huntelaar of weekends - underwhelming and giving the impression it should have been better.

Horse Racing

I've got to admit, I'm beginning to worry a bit about the racing. Not on a longer term basis - my services retain my absolute faith - but in terms of dragging this month's performance down it is more Spain than Ireland, if you know what I mean. This month has been a shocker so far.

I do need to qualify my disappointment a little. I know I missed a good WRT winner when I was on holiday, but even had I backed that, I'd still be way, way down. On The Nose appear to be able to do little right and really upset the gambling gods. Watching Area Fifty One (York - 11/1) go ahead inside the final furlong on Saturday (apparently hitting 1.01 on Betfair as it did so), I thought that things were on the turn. Alas not as AFO appeared to be outbattled in the finish and returned only the place part of the each way bet. I'm on a drawdown with On The Nose that currently stands at just short of half the bank allotted, a drawdown that began at the start of 2012. Just get the feeling a couple of big priced winners to arrest the decline would see normal service being resumed. And let's not forget that for 2011 (and before that, only I wasn't a member), "normal service" was bloody good!

Northern Monkey are going through the mill this month too. No joy from two on Saturday before yesterday's tip (Gunner Lindley - Cork - 7/2) ran well to finish third. Still, another small loss on the bet though and Wayne will be keeping his fingers, toes, eyes and knadgers crossed for an antepost bet he has running at Royal Ascot tomorrow. Naturally I want it to win, but if it does, I won't make as much as others will as the original tip was issued, yes you guessed it, when I was on holiday. Bah - who needs holidays anyway!?! Not having one next year.

A quiet weekend for The Market Examiner (0/1) and it's been a quiet couple of weeks for Winning Racing Tips, who also had a loser yesterday.


Football Betting

It's all very well backing teams in Brazil, but I'm a simple soul and overnight kick offs confuse my daily record-keeping!

Summer Of Football essentially broke even from eleven bets, and Form Lab Lite dropped a shade under two points.


Northern Monkey: Staked 3.25pts, -2.4pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3pts, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Summer Of Football: Staked 11pts, -0.016pts.
Form Lab Lite: Staked 5.25pts, -1.94pts.


Today's Betting

No luck again for Northern Monkey (0/1), but The Market Examiner had a very good winner (Watts Up Son - Calisle - 8/1).

Two Form Lab Lite bets tonight; a loser with there being not enough goals in the Spain/Croatia match, and a winner with the relative lack of goals (ie.under 2.5) in the Italy/Ireland game.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +7pts.

Form Lab Lite: Staked 2pts, +0.26pts.

England? Pah.

Really quick one tonight. Knackered.

Today's Betting

Still no profits with the horses. Northern Monkey produced a small profit with a good each way bet that finished second (Esprit De Midas - York - 20/1), but On The Nose finished 0/3 and The Market Examiner (0/1).

Winner on the football for Summer Of Football who had France to beat the Ukraine, but then Form Lab Lite went for Under 2.5 goals in the England match. Daft buggers!

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.85pts, +0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, +1.1pts.
Form Lab: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Form Lab

Not at all sure what to make of Tottenham and Harry Redknapp. Obviously I don't support them so I don't know enough about what is going on there to form any proper, informed opinion. On the face of it though, sacking Redknapp seems a very strange move.

Harry took the club over when they were in the relegation zone, if I remember rightly, about ten games into the season. He immediately took them well clear of that precarious position, and in subsequent seasons got Spurs into the Champions League for the first time (and did well in the competition), then finished a highly respectable fifth, and then back into the CL places in the season just finished. Were it not for Chelsea somehow managing to win the thing, Spurs would be in the qualifying rounds for next season's competition. All this was done on the back of genuinely exciting football played by some proper, top class players (Modric, Bale, Van der Vaart). And now he's been sacked. I don't get it, but like I say, perhaps there are reasons we're unaware of that Tottenham supporters have some insight into that would provide an explanation.

Whatever, Levy better have some confidence in being able to make some grand vision become a reality. Otherwise, he may just have knocked Spurs back about five years. Will be interesting finding out.


I received a query about Football Form Lab the day before yesterday, so I thought perhaps I should write a few blatherings on it.

The first thing I'd say is that by simply following the bet recommendations in the Daily Reports, I am not utilising the software to anywhere like it's maximum potential. I wish I could, but as ever, lack of time is a deadly enemy. There is a wealth of information to negotiate though, and if I had the time to do so, I'm sure other profitable angles could be found.

So why am I following? Three reasons...

1. 10% roi over 1,000+ bets;
2. Provides turnover during the summer months; and
3. It is a relatively high turnover service through the year, and as regular readers will know, this is something I have been moving towards attaining for the portfolio.

The only issue really is that Form Lab Lite is relatively expensive. This in itself puts it under a pressure to perform that perhaps other, cheaper services, can avoid. I don't care who you are, you are more likely to be more patient with a service charging less than you are with one that is underperforming AND hitting you that bit harder in the pocket when subs come up for renewal. Something to be aware of, I think.

Anyway, there we go. If anyone has any further questions, stick a comment in the relevant box.


Today's Betting

The pattern of winning with the footie and losing on the nags continued today. Fortunately over the last couple of days more has been made than lost. Let's hope that carries on.

No winners again on the horses, but one of Northern Monkey's bets found the frame to return stakes, and the one On The Nose tip also placed for a small profit. No luck for The Market Examiner (0/2).

Profit though from Form Lab Lite. Two bets in the Italy/Croatia match. 75% stake on both teams to score, and 25% stake on the 1-1 correct scoreline. Nice.

The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.565pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -1.5pts.

Form Lab: Staked 1pt, +2.18pts.


The Spanish don't look too shabby, do they?

Lighten Up, Goddammit!!!

It was a refreshing, exciting game of football wasn't it, that Poland vs Russia game last night? End to end football, technically adept players, chances being created, goalkeepers stretched and making good saves. The home crowd, the passion in their support for their team fuelled by the historical significance of the fixture, were fervent and noisy and created an atmosphere that fair crackled and which, unusually, could be detected despite the consistently inane television commentary.

In the second half Poland equalised after an exhilerating counter attack, the captain cutting inside and unleashing a power bolt of a shot that hit the top corner of the net in the blink of an eye. The crowd went wild, the Polish President and other dignitaries were far from dignified, up on their feet, punching the air and generally going bonkers. THIS, is what football is all about - the sheer joy of it. And there, sitting next to the Polish VIPs, was the Head of European Football, arguably it's most powerful man, Michel Platini, sitting impassive, not even applauding, looking sober and controlled.

I understand the guy needs to appear impartial, but for Chrissakes, why not stand up and celebrate every team's goal if you want to look unbiased!?! Get into the spirit of football for a change. To me, Platini's (non)reaction spoke volumes and explains so much of what is wrong with modern football...it is too easy to forget that at the end of it all, when played well by two good teams in a match that matters, it is pure theatre. Pure excitement. Pure joy.

Let your hair down, man!


Now, whilst I'm on the subject of football (when am I ever that far away from it?), I've been reading The Football Analyst's recent blog posts, following the development of his European systems. I imagine most of you have been doing the same, but if you haven't I strongly recommend doing so. It is not often you get the opportunity to watch as systems come together, and I know from previous experience, if you do then it makes following them much easier mentally when they go live. Seeing what has gone into their development makes enduring the losing runs that are always going to occur that bit easier. Similarly, the profits are that much more enjoyable when they come too. I guess it's a bit like relishing your food that little bit more if you've gone out and caught it or cooked it yourself, if that makes sense.

I posed Graeme a question in his comments section the other evening, relating to following the Euro systems next season or not. Graeme's promised to provide his opinion after he's developed things a little further (which is fair enough - I knew when I asked the question I was being more premature than an overly enthusiastic 16 year old who is fumbling away with his girlfriend on the back row of the cinema). My own plans were to always just watch next season, and then plunge in the season after when the inevitable has been confirmed and profits are obviously there for the taking. Now, I'm not so sure. I could be tempted to follow financially this coming season.

Why so? Well, bottom line, Graeme's blog posts so far show figures demonstrating strong potential; indeed, the figures are very similar to those that Graeme found when his now proven UK systems were in a similarly developmental stage. But that's not the only reason. There are issues of liquidity to consider, and of increased amounts of money I would anticipate going on to TFA's picks next season from subscribers.

The following paragraphs from The Football Analyst blog really struck a nerve:

I’m sure the time will come when bookmakers realise I’m the one cherry picking them off when they quote standout prices for teams that are then followed by others later in the week, so I expect it won’t get easier for me to make money betting on my own selections. I’ll continue reinvesting my profits from each season and sooner or later, I’ll be playing all my betting with the big Asian bookmakers who won’t restrict me from winning but it will erode part of the edge my systems have. That’s a fact but it’s one I can live with though.


Having more leagues to play in means I can continue to spread the stakes around and of course, it is a great way for me to diversify the risk. If I can create another selection of systems that produce similar levels of returns to the UK systems, then over a season, it may be the case that the UK systems could struggle but the European systems could bail me out. The reverse may also be true!


Secondly, a large part of this game for me is to allow others to follow my work and make money along with me. I know some people struggle at the moment getting on in the UK leagues and as time goes on, if the UK systems continue winning, this will only get harder. People will be reinvesting their profits, average stakes will be going up, I’ll have more people following and all of a sudden, when system 7-22 has a bet, it is getting smashed in from the bookies as they don’t want the liabilities on these teams. This erodes the edge on the system, people start chasing prices, and before we know it, the edge is basically gone on the system or more likely, reduced to such an extent that people decide it’s not worth following.

These paragraphs prompted me to ask Graeme the question I did (allied to other factors such as the similarities with the UK systems I have already referred to). It is this ability to think ahead, to plot and plan viable contingency plans, that I'm realising that anybody who is serious about their betting and who wishes to bet long term, must be able to demonstrate.


Today's Betting

It's a rough old time on the racing front at the moment, and winners are very few and far between. Northern Monkey are suffering at the moment and today's two selections provided no returns. The Market Examiner were unsuccessful today too (0/3). If June is to be amonth that produces a positive return, the racing needs to start producing some returns. The football is keeping losses under control at the moment, but we could do with the horses lightening the burden and doing so soon.

Just Form Lab Lite with bets on the footie today, and fortunately three winners. First there was a aplit stake in the Portugal/Denmark match - Portugal to win and over 2.5 goals. Then this evening was Over 2.5 goals in the Holland/Germany game.

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.7pts, -1.7pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

Form Lab Lite: Staked 2pts, +2.21pts.

Mind the gap.

No, that's not a gentle dig at any Tottenham supporters who happen to drop by. More a description of what I'm trying to do with the portfolio over the summer months to compensate for the lack of football betting now the main European leagues have finished.

Before I went on holiday I mentioned that I want to start thinking and planning my betting as a professional gambler would do. I want to elevate my operation (fancy word for it, I know) to a level that provides an alternative income to my PAYE earnings. I found that once I started to think like this, I fundamentally changed my outlook in terms of what I was trying to achieve and how I was going to achieve it. It forced me to look at the whole portfolio as a portfolio, as opposed to constantly analysing it's individual constituent parts (which remains important, of course), and I can't emphasise enough how different this feels. I guess what I'm trying to say is that instead of attempting to maximise the performance of each service I subscribe to, I'm now trying to maximise the performance of the portfolio as a whole, and that brings about a whole lot of different considerations. To a large extent, this subtle but significant shift in outlook was forced on me rather by those bastard bookmakers who refuse to take a bet. You know, I wouldn't be surprised if I don't look back in the future and see that the likes of Ladbrokes (who are the latest to close me down), Bet365 and the rest have actually done me a big favour. Their actions have forced me into thinking differently and I have a strong feeling that that is no bad thing. In fact, I think it is going to make me a much better and more effective gambler. Time will tell.

The fact that the bookmakers suddenly playing hard ball with me has more or less coincided with the end of Football Season 2011/12, a time that naturally lends itself to taking stock and planning for the future, has been a stroke of luck. There is breathing space, a calming of the storm that is created by placing a large number of bets on various football teams each week, that can be used for reflection. But we're looking at things from a different perspective now though, and it is apparent that this downtime actually represents a problem to be solved. In this quiet place that is conducive to contemplation, lies the first big issue that I feel the need to address; the gap that the title to this post refers to.

Skeeve usually kicks off the football betting season, August often seeing a good few non-league bets being placed (although I seem to remember the wiser and more experienced Skeeve leaving the opening fixtures alone now, but I may be wrong) that are followed by one or two Football Elite wagers. It is not until September though that the season gets into full swing, the chaos lasting until about mid-April when the action begins to slow and grows a little less frantic. From May through to those Skeeve-filled weeks of August though, we're relying on horse racing for our turnover, and as we know, I've had to cut back my involvement in the Sport of Kings quite drastically. This means that my profit-making (how's that for confidence!?!) is rather concentrated into nine months. Three months of the year are rendered relatively redundant - not entirely of course, as hopefully the racing boys will produce the goods, but turnover is obviously significantly reduced. Until now.

So Step 1 in Operation Portfolio, was to fill the summer shaped gap that was being previously minded. Hence my subscription to Summer Of Football, a high turnover service with high involvement in the summer leagues, although you'd never have guessed from it's name. Furthermore, two more services introduced on a summer trial basis - Form Lab Lite and Sportyy. Form Lab Lite was quite literally on a trial basis - a month's free go at it via the SBC. What a profitable month it was too, despite my cautious introductory staking levels, good profits being secured through May and into June, simply by following the advice in the service's 'Daily Reports'. It is this advice that I will be reporting on the blog, for the moment anyway.

Sportyy? Well any SBC members will be familiar with this spanish-based tennis expert (plus Spanish footy in the winter, too). A good, lengthy track record and very healthy returns plus the diversity offered by involvement in a different sport ticks a lot of portfolio boxes. I've signed up for an initial three months, really to test out practicality issues, odds attainment, etc. I'll keep you posted naturally, although ironically bearing in mind the subject matter of this post, he's currently on a week's break! Not to worry.

Suddenly, my summer does not seem so restive. I'm putting more bets on again and turnover is up. Interestingly, roughly 75% of the bets I'm now placing are with one of 188bet, 12bet, Pinnacle or SBO. I feel as if things are beginning to take shape in the way I want them to. Now all we need are some winners.

Today's Betting

Frustrating day.

Hardly any racing action, just one Northern Monkey bet which was a loser.

It was the football that was frustrating. Two bets returned stakes on the Asian Handicap lines and two losers.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, N/A.
Form Lab: Staked 3pts, -2pts.

Back again.

Why does it feel like I've never been away? The weeks that fly by the fastest each year are undoubtedly the ones you spend on holiday. Pfft.

Now I know this is rather remiss of me, but I simply haven't the time to blog properly. There's quite a bit going on at the moment too and many subjects I want to go into, but that will all have to wait.

So without further ado, today's results...

Today's Betting

On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, -0.5pts.
Form Lab Lite (yep, I know, I haven't gone into this yet): Staked 2pts, -1.04pts.


Stay tuned - when time allows, I'll be going into things like any half decent blogger should. Laters.