Spending a lot of time at the moment trying to get into trading the tennis. It's been a frustrating week so far, with matches starting at inconvenient times, but I do feel as if I'm making a little progress. I know I've mentioned Betfair Guru before and I like his strategies and chat room, but I want to go further and become entirely self-sufficient if I can. It relates to what I hinted at yesterday - that I can't help thinking that the secret to being free of the ties of working for an employer (and I mean free in the sense of being in the position to be able to choose whether or not we work for an employer) is to create three or four revenue streams that you can control yourself.
I suppose this is merely an extension of the principle of diversification that we aim towards when constructing a portfolio. As soon as you put your eggs in just one or even two baskets, then you're opening yourself up to a level of risk higher than is necessary.
Anyway, back to the trading. I've been "watching" the tennis markets for just over a year now, and it's taken me this long to even begin to understand them at a level that can be descibed as being more than basic. Sure, I can see the relevant entry and exit points when following the Betfair Guru strategies, and I could quickly recognise some of the patterns that occur in the markets, but all of a sudden I feel I'm getting to understand them, to be able to read them. Is this normal? Or am I particularly slow on the uptake?
I'm not saying or even hinting that I'm approaching a full understanding; just a realisation that I have taken a bit of a jump forward. The frustrating thing now of course, is that I don't have the time to press on at any greater rate than I have been doing. Time, as ever, remains the enemy.
Wednesday 27th February
Nothing spectacular yesterday, but another solid enough day providing a fair level of profit. A long long way from being one of the greatest days, but if I could secure this solid amount of profit each and every day, I'd be a happy man!
Still no profit on the horses, despite the best attempts of On The Nose. His first bet won nicely (Criqtonic - Wincanton - 2/1), but his second ran a lovely race apart from one blunder down the back straight at Lingfield which judging by the proximity he took to the winner at the line, cost him the race and us an 8/1 winner! No luck for Northern Monkey (0/1).
So again it was the sports services that brought home the bacon. Sportyy's (hopeful) recovery from a poor run since the start of the year continued with two winners from two (Kuznetsov to bt Bellucci at 2.25 and Over 2.5 goals in the Sevilla/Atletico Madrid match at 1.94).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.6pts.
Sportyy: Staked 3.5pts, +3.752pts.
Trial service: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Thursday, 28 February 2013
Wednesday, 27 February 2013
Smelling Cheltenham and the importance of turnover.
You know I know it sounds weird, but I can almost smell the Cheltenham Festival approacing. I take the week off from work each year and follow a set routine: take the kids to school, pick up a Racing Post on the way back, a breakfast of hot coffee and potato cakes with butter and grated cheese (particularly nice with Parmesan, I find) whilst watching The Morning Line, and then a walk out through the fields and local farmland before coming home to read the RP and watch the build up on Racing UK. Bliss.
I don't know if it is just those very first signs of Spring that I notice when Cheltenham is on - although it is often still bloody cold! - but even at home, there's an atmosphere when I go outside that I just can't quite describe. It's like how the wind starts to blow and the way the fallen leaves rustle that means that it can only be late October/early November - you could have just woken from a long coma and you'd instantly know what time of year it was simply from the sounds you can hear. So it is with late February/March time with me, with Cheltenham just around the corner. It's intangible, but no less real because of it. Bring it on!
There was a nice winner last night from Football Elite which meant that the "weekend's" betting for the service was profitable. It is still very early days for the new 'style' of bets we receive from Matt now - ie. more of them, win only, using a bank twice the size in terms of points - but I get the feeling that Matt is going back to his roots, or at least closer to the style I remember from my earlier days with the service. I could be wrong.
Certainly it is too early to gauge whether or not the changes will return the service to producing the high level of performance for which it became famous amongst our betting fraternity. There is a temptation to say that it needs to and I think it fair to say that antepost results apart, there has been a fairly lengthy period of time that has proven fallow as far as growing profits is concerned.
Having said that, whilst having an online discussion with someone whose opinion I greatly respect, a statement was made that really hit home. The conversation was touching upon subjects such as variance, betting turnover, professional gambling and the desire to maximise ROC levels amongst other things, and did not refer specifically to Football Elite at all. Nonetheless, what my mate said struck a real chord...
People winning money from gambling don’t let a poor run of 428 bets affect them.
Like I say, the "428 bets" referred to something else entirely, but we can relate this assertion to Football Elite. 428 Football Elite bets essentially takes us back to the beginning of the 2009/10 season!
A different issue of course, is whether Football Elite's edge remains. I guess at the moment, you have to say that is a moot point and I don't think you can at this stage say with any certainty either 'Yes' or 'No'. The sample of bets is not yet big enough (and some statisticians would say by a long, long way) from which we can draw definitive conclusions. The conundrum we face as investors of course, is that if the edge has disappeared, then the process of finding out is going to prove to be an expensive one.
There is a wider context to all this. I'm fascinated by the idea of gambling providing a living, although I would personally want it to be one income stream of perhaps two, three, or four. I find the idea of the challenge it would provide an absorbing one to contemplate and am always very interested in any insight that someone who relies on gambling can provide. What strikes me though is that there are a lot more ways of skinning a gambling cat. I have a mass of jumbled thoughts in my head and feel that I haven't yet ordered them properly. For example, perhaps to be a professional gambler, it would help to have a very high turnover of bets to ensure that an edge manifests itself relatively quickly and as an aid to reduce the effects of variance (and therefore stress levels). If so, then do services such as Football Elite, Skeeve, The Sportsman or any other relatively low-turnover service provide the right vehicle to enable us to reach our goals? Personally I feel that they must do, if for no other reason that I know the folk that run these services do make their living from betting, although they do also have the subscription fees they receive to contribute, possibly significantly, to their annual income. I guess this goes back to gambling itself being merely a component of an income-earning machine, as opposed to being the exclusive means of generating an income.
Comments welcome...
Monday 25th February
A small profit on the day, but alas nothing on the horses, which have been very disappointing this month. Today saw losses for Northern Monkey (0/1) and On The Nose (0/1).
Football Elite had a loser (0/1), but Sportyy came through with a nice winner (Dodig to bt Dolgopolov at 2.81).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, +2.715pts.
Football Elite: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 6pts, +4.44pts.
Tuesday 26th February
A decent day overall, although again, the horses let me down. Losers today for On The Nose (0/1) and Winning Racing Tips (0/2).
I mentioned Football Elite's good winner (Bologna to bt Fiorentina at 3.35) although my policy of waiting for the markets to mature before backing the bets backfired a little on me with this one. The Football Analyst 7/22 came up with a good'un too (Oxford (DNB) to bt Gillingham at 3.4). Sportyy produced a profit for the second consecutive day, finding two winners from four bets (Llodra to win 1st set vs Tsonga at 3.4 and Odesenik to win 1st set vs Kubot at 2.0).
On The Nose: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 0.5pts, +1.2pts.
Sportyy: Staked 4.5pts, +1.9pts.
Football Elite: Staked 0.5pts, +1.175pts.
Trial service: Staked 7pts, -7pts.
I don't know if it is just those very first signs of Spring that I notice when Cheltenham is on - although it is often still bloody cold! - but even at home, there's an atmosphere when I go outside that I just can't quite describe. It's like how the wind starts to blow and the way the fallen leaves rustle that means that it can only be late October/early November - you could have just woken from a long coma and you'd instantly know what time of year it was simply from the sounds you can hear. So it is with late February/March time with me, with Cheltenham just around the corner. It's intangible, but no less real because of it. Bring it on!
There was a nice winner last night from Football Elite which meant that the "weekend's" betting for the service was profitable. It is still very early days for the new 'style' of bets we receive from Matt now - ie. more of them, win only, using a bank twice the size in terms of points - but I get the feeling that Matt is going back to his roots, or at least closer to the style I remember from my earlier days with the service. I could be wrong.
Certainly it is too early to gauge whether or not the changes will return the service to producing the high level of performance for which it became famous amongst our betting fraternity. There is a temptation to say that it needs to and I think it fair to say that antepost results apart, there has been a fairly lengthy period of time that has proven fallow as far as growing profits is concerned.
Having said that, whilst having an online discussion with someone whose opinion I greatly respect, a statement was made that really hit home. The conversation was touching upon subjects such as variance, betting turnover, professional gambling and the desire to maximise ROC levels amongst other things, and did not refer specifically to Football Elite at all. Nonetheless, what my mate said struck a real chord...
People winning money from gambling don’t let a poor run of 428 bets affect them.
Like I say, the "428 bets" referred to something else entirely, but we can relate this assertion to Football Elite. 428 Football Elite bets essentially takes us back to the beginning of the 2009/10 season!
A different issue of course, is whether Football Elite's edge remains. I guess at the moment, you have to say that is a moot point and I don't think you can at this stage say with any certainty either 'Yes' or 'No'. The sample of bets is not yet big enough (and some statisticians would say by a long, long way) from which we can draw definitive conclusions. The conundrum we face as investors of course, is that if the edge has disappeared, then the process of finding out is going to prove to be an expensive one.
There is a wider context to all this. I'm fascinated by the idea of gambling providing a living, although I would personally want it to be one income stream of perhaps two, three, or four. I find the idea of the challenge it would provide an absorbing one to contemplate and am always very interested in any insight that someone who relies on gambling can provide. What strikes me though is that there are a lot more ways of skinning a gambling cat. I have a mass of jumbled thoughts in my head and feel that I haven't yet ordered them properly. For example, perhaps to be a professional gambler, it would help to have a very high turnover of bets to ensure that an edge manifests itself relatively quickly and as an aid to reduce the effects of variance (and therefore stress levels). If so, then do services such as Football Elite, Skeeve, The Sportsman or any other relatively low-turnover service provide the right vehicle to enable us to reach our goals? Personally I feel that they must do, if for no other reason that I know the folk that run these services do make their living from betting, although they do also have the subscription fees they receive to contribute, possibly significantly, to their annual income. I guess this goes back to gambling itself being merely a component of an income-earning machine, as opposed to being the exclusive means of generating an income.
Comments welcome...
Monday 25th February
A small profit on the day, but alas nothing on the horses, which have been very disappointing this month. Today saw losses for Northern Monkey (0/1) and On The Nose (0/1).
Football Elite had a loser (0/1), but Sportyy came through with a nice winner (Dodig to bt Dolgopolov at 2.81).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, +2.715pts.
Football Elite: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 6pts, +4.44pts.
Tuesday 26th February
A decent day overall, although again, the horses let me down. Losers today for On The Nose (0/1) and Winning Racing Tips (0/2).
I mentioned Football Elite's good winner (Bologna to bt Fiorentina at 3.35) although my policy of waiting for the markets to mature before backing the bets backfired a little on me with this one. The Football Analyst 7/22 came up with a good'un too (Oxford (DNB) to bt Gillingham at 3.4). Sportyy produced a profit for the second consecutive day, finding two winners from four bets (Llodra to win 1st set vs Tsonga at 3.4 and Odesenik to win 1st set vs Kubot at 2.0).
On The Nose: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 0.5pts, +1.2pts.
Sportyy: Staked 4.5pts, +1.9pts.
Football Elite: Staked 0.5pts, +1.175pts.
Trial service: Staked 7pts, -7pts.
Monday, 25 February 2013
Giant Squids and missed penalties.
OK so there I am, a member of a small but hardy band of men, women and children fighting for survival in a post-Apocolyptic England, a land largely submerged by flood water resulting from the melting of the polar ice caps and next door leaving their bath tap on when they'd gone on holiday. This is a world where land and sea beast are having to learn to co-operate and to live alongside each other, thereby strengthening their chances of ongoing survival in this harsh, watery world (although naturally, the Sea Beasts don't so much mind the water). To help promote these feelings of togetherness, man and Sea Beast had organised a game of football - a match destined to be the most poignant since the Allies and Axis famously put aside their differences one famous Christmas Eve during the Great War, and faced each other on No-Man's Land to enjoy a good kick about.
Unbelievably, after 89 minutes of rough and tumble, exciting, end to end but scoreless football, Graham Poll awarded the Sea Beasts a very dubious penalty (a blatant dive by the No.9, a Bottle Nosed Dolphin) which is to be taken by the Octopus which itself has put in a fine shift at left back, getting up and down the left flank tirelessly, contributing to attack as well as holding firm in defence. However, one or two of it's tentacles got caught in the grass as it ran up to strike the ball, and consequently, the Octopus succeeded only in gently pushing the ball into the hands of our goalkeeper, the geezer who runs our local chippy. Enraged by it's teammate's incompetence, the Giant Squid spat his dummy good and proper, promptly spraying several players and Poll with black ink and refusing to walk when subsequently shown the red card. The match descended into chaos with lots of pushing and shoving, general handbags and recrimination, before the full time whistle sounded and each participant returned to their camp, tired and dejected.
Any Dream Interpreters out there that could perhaps shed some light?
Weekend Betting
A little underwhelming all told, and consequently it looks like the strong weekend of a week ago has succeeded only in bringing the month up to the break even point as opposed to representing a platform upon which could be built a winning month. I guess we'll know for sure later this week.
Northern Monkey's Sunday afternoon at the football may not have worked out as he might have hoped, but he didn't have a bad time as far as tipping goes, Friday's bet producing just a sliver of profit from finishing second and Saturday's being a nice winner Diamond Charlie - Lingfield - 4/1).
Staked 2pts, +2.525pts
No Arsenal related jokes from On The Nose this weekend, but then no 8/1 winners either. Mind you, weren't so far away with the one selection on Saturday (Duke of Lucca - Kempton - 12/1) which having been backed each way, finished third. No joy on Friday (0/3) or yesterday (0/1).
Staked 3.5pts, -1.5pts
It's been a very quiet month generally for The Sportsman Racing, but we did see one bet over the weekend which finished in the frame and resulted in just a very small deficit.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.075pts
A nice winner at last this month for Winning Racing Tips who backed two horses in the same race on Saturday, one of them finishing first (Annacotty - Chepstow - 5/1). The bet on Friday, like that of Northern Monkey, finished in the places for a tiny profit.
Finally on the nags, 4PA's month finished as it started, a little limply, with no returns from two selectons on Saturday. March should be a big one though, what with Cheltenham and all.
On to the sports side of the portfolio.
Qudos to James of Summer Of Football who dealt with trans-oceanic travel, different time zones and attending a conference to still provide members with three tips. Friday's was a winner (Nimes to bt Istre at 1.84), and Saturday's provided a half winner and a loser. I bet James slept well when he got home!
Staked 3pts, +0.34pts
The travails of Sportyy continued. There weren't any bets over Saturday and Sunday, but Friday saw another loss as only one bet from four came in. This is a worrying run now and unfortunately, thus far, it has really dragged down the whole portfolio performance this month. More on this later this week, and in the meantime, let's hope the next few days bring some winners to reduce the damage.
Staked 8pts, -3.568pts
Just one bet for The Sportsman which returned stakes.
Staked 0.15pts, N/A
Saturday was a decent day for Football Elite with two winners from four, but unfortunately almost all the profit made was given back by two losers on Sunday. Good winners on Saturday though (Hannover to bt Hamburg at 2.75 and Norwich to bt Everton at 3.5).
Staked 6pts, +0.125pts
A solid enough weekend again for The Football Analyst, with the one 7-22 bet coming up nicely (Notts Forest (DNB) vs Charlton at 2.04), and E3-E7 finding one winner from two home bets on Saturday (Augsburg to bt Hoffenheim at 2.23). The one E3-E7 away bet on Sunday was a loser.
Staked 1.75pts, +0.385pts
Finally, as he said himself, this weekend represented a return to the Twilight Zone for Skeeve. The Asian bet was a loser, as were the two doubles. It shouldn't be forgotten though that it's been a strong month for Skeeve. Let's hope he can end the season well.
Staked 10pts, -10pts
Finally, subscribers to The Value Bettor and to the SBC will be aware of Andrew's decision to terminate the service for this season. Having met Andrew and having swopped many emails since, I consider him a friend. I would like to pass on my best wishes to Andrew and very much hope he will be back soon.
Unbelievably, after 89 minutes of rough and tumble, exciting, end to end but scoreless football, Graham Poll awarded the Sea Beasts a very dubious penalty (a blatant dive by the No.9, a Bottle Nosed Dolphin) which is to be taken by the Octopus which itself has put in a fine shift at left back, getting up and down the left flank tirelessly, contributing to attack as well as holding firm in defence. However, one or two of it's tentacles got caught in the grass as it ran up to strike the ball, and consequently, the Octopus succeeded only in gently pushing the ball into the hands of our goalkeeper, the geezer who runs our local chippy. Enraged by it's teammate's incompetence, the Giant Squid spat his dummy good and proper, promptly spraying several players and Poll with black ink and refusing to walk when subsequently shown the red card. The match descended into chaos with lots of pushing and shoving, general handbags and recrimination, before the full time whistle sounded and each participant returned to their camp, tired and dejected.
Any Dream Interpreters out there that could perhaps shed some light?
Weekend Betting
A little underwhelming all told, and consequently it looks like the strong weekend of a week ago has succeeded only in bringing the month up to the break even point as opposed to representing a platform upon which could be built a winning month. I guess we'll know for sure later this week.
Northern Monkey's Sunday afternoon at the football may not have worked out as he might have hoped, but he didn't have a bad time as far as tipping goes, Friday's bet producing just a sliver of profit from finishing second and Saturday's being a nice winner Diamond Charlie - Lingfield - 4/1).
Staked 2pts, +2.525pts
No Arsenal related jokes from On The Nose this weekend, but then no 8/1 winners either. Mind you, weren't so far away with the one selection on Saturday (Duke of Lucca - Kempton - 12/1) which having been backed each way, finished third. No joy on Friday (0/3) or yesterday (0/1).
Staked 3.5pts, -1.5pts
It's been a very quiet month generally for The Sportsman Racing, but we did see one bet over the weekend which finished in the frame and resulted in just a very small deficit.
Staked 0.5pts, -0.075pts
A nice winner at last this month for Winning Racing Tips who backed two horses in the same race on Saturday, one of them finishing first (Annacotty - Chepstow - 5/1). The bet on Friday, like that of Northern Monkey, finished in the places for a tiny profit.
Finally on the nags, 4PA's month finished as it started, a little limply, with no returns from two selectons on Saturday. March should be a big one though, what with Cheltenham and all.
On to the sports side of the portfolio.
Qudos to James of Summer Of Football who dealt with trans-oceanic travel, different time zones and attending a conference to still provide members with three tips. Friday's was a winner (Nimes to bt Istre at 1.84), and Saturday's provided a half winner and a loser. I bet James slept well when he got home!
Staked 3pts, +0.34pts
The travails of Sportyy continued. There weren't any bets over Saturday and Sunday, but Friday saw another loss as only one bet from four came in. This is a worrying run now and unfortunately, thus far, it has really dragged down the whole portfolio performance this month. More on this later this week, and in the meantime, let's hope the next few days bring some winners to reduce the damage.
Staked 8pts, -3.568pts
Just one bet for The Sportsman which returned stakes.
Staked 0.15pts, N/A
Saturday was a decent day for Football Elite with two winners from four, but unfortunately almost all the profit made was given back by two losers on Sunday. Good winners on Saturday though (Hannover to bt Hamburg at 2.75 and Norwich to bt Everton at 3.5).
Staked 6pts, +0.125pts
A solid enough weekend again for The Football Analyst, with the one 7-22 bet coming up nicely (Notts Forest (DNB) vs Charlton at 2.04), and E3-E7 finding one winner from two home bets on Saturday (Augsburg to bt Hoffenheim at 2.23). The one E3-E7 away bet on Sunday was a loser.
Staked 1.75pts, +0.385pts
Finally, as he said himself, this weekend represented a return to the Twilight Zone for Skeeve. The Asian bet was a loser, as were the two doubles. It shouldn't be forgotten though that it's been a strong month for Skeeve. Let's hope he can end the season well.
Staked 10pts, -10pts
Finally, subscribers to The Value Bettor and to the SBC will be aware of Andrew's decision to terminate the service for this season. Having met Andrew and having swopped many emails since, I consider him a friend. I would like to pass on my best wishes to Andrew and very much hope he will be back soon.
Friday, 22 February 2013
Round up.
Difficult to blog tonight. I'll stick to a round-up.
Thursday 21st February
A small loss on the day.
Only On The Nose in action on the nags. No luck yesterday (0/2).
A good night for On The Oche with two winners and a third bet that returned stakes in the evening's Premier League.
No joy for Sportyy (0/1).
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, +1.14pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Thursday 21st February
A small loss on the day.
Only On The Nose in action on the nags. No luck yesterday (0/2).
A good night for On The Oche with two winners and a third bet that returned stakes in the evening's Premier League.
No joy for Sportyy (0/1).
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, +1.14pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Thursday, 21 February 2013
Comedians everywhere.
Flamin' 'eck! He picks a nice winner and then starts making jokes on Twitter at Arsenal's expense! Yes, TJ, I'm looking at you!!! :)
Of course, I shall keep TJ's identity a secret, and I won't mention which service he runs (*cough - On The Nose - cough*). Nor shall I bear any grudges, providing one condition is met...we keep getting winners like the one we got on Tuesday. Those are my terms. What say you?
Tuesday 19th February
A good day. Sportyy returned to betting action after a short, self-imposed break to provide a winner (Kuznetsov to bt Volandri at 2.4) and The Football Analyst 7-22 had a nice away winner to add to the profit on the month (Oldham (DNB) to bt Stevenage at 2.17).
On the nags the day belonged to On The Nose (whose owner would never, and I mean never, go onto social media sites to poke fun at the mighty AFC) who selected Marie Des Anges (Wetherby - 8/1). Strange one this. I took 7/2 in the morning, and yet the beast drifted to 8/1 before sauntering to a wide-margin victory. It was possibly the most brutal race I've ever seen, too. Plenty of horses didn't just fall, but suffered horrible, somersaulting, crashing falls. It wasn't pleasant viewing, but that's the game I guess.
No success for Northern Monkey (0/1) and the Winning Racing Tips bet placed at 5/1 to return stakes.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, +4pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.9pts, N/A.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, +2.057pts.
TFA (7/22): Staked 0.5pts, +0.585pts.
Trial service: Staked 4pts, -0.56pts.
Wednesday 20th February
Not such a good day with a manageable loss accruing.
On The Nose followed up the previous day's win with another amongst three selections (Monkerty Tunkerty - Doncaster - 4/1). Northern Monkey produced a small profit via one that placed at 10/1. I also backed the smaller staked bet in the same race as it was a 20/1 shot and I'd have thrown myself off the nearest bridge had that won without my money on it. As it happens the 'orse ran well, finishing just out of the frame but there was a point in the race where it looked like it might have had a chance.
An expensive loser for Winning Racing Tips unfortunately, which traded at 1.16 to win when not too far from home.
Only Sportyy representing the sports betting side of the portfolio, without success (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.8pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Of course, I shall keep TJ's identity a secret, and I won't mention which service he runs (*cough - On The Nose - cough*). Nor shall I bear any grudges, providing one condition is met...we keep getting winners like the one we got on Tuesday. Those are my terms. What say you?
Tuesday 19th February
A good day. Sportyy returned to betting action after a short, self-imposed break to provide a winner (Kuznetsov to bt Volandri at 2.4) and The Football Analyst 7-22 had a nice away winner to add to the profit on the month (Oldham (DNB) to bt Stevenage at 2.17).
On the nags the day belonged to On The Nose (whose owner would never, and I mean never, go onto social media sites to poke fun at the mighty AFC) who selected Marie Des Anges (Wetherby - 8/1). Strange one this. I took 7/2 in the morning, and yet the beast drifted to 8/1 before sauntering to a wide-margin victory. It was possibly the most brutal race I've ever seen, too. Plenty of horses didn't just fall, but suffered horrible, somersaulting, crashing falls. It wasn't pleasant viewing, but that's the game I guess.
No success for Northern Monkey (0/1) and the Winning Racing Tips bet placed at 5/1 to return stakes.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, +4pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.9pts, N/A.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, +2.057pts.
TFA (7/22): Staked 0.5pts, +0.585pts.
Trial service: Staked 4pts, -0.56pts.
Wednesday 20th February
Not such a good day with a manageable loss accruing.
On The Nose followed up the previous day's win with another amongst three selections (Monkerty Tunkerty - Doncaster - 4/1). Northern Monkey produced a small profit via one that placed at 10/1. I also backed the smaller staked bet in the same race as it was a 20/1 shot and I'd have thrown myself off the nearest bridge had that won without my money on it. As it happens the 'orse ran well, finishing just out of the frame but there was a point in the race where it looked like it might have had a chance.
An expensive loser for Winning Racing Tips unfortunately, which traded at 1.16 to win when not too far from home.
Only Sportyy representing the sports betting side of the portfolio, without success (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.8pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Tuesday, 19 February 2013
Lunchtime update.
Really not very much to report at all from yesterday, and as is the way of things at the moment, I thought I'd just post up a quick lunchtime update.
Monday 18th February
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 2pts, +2.52pts.
Spare me a thought tonight. At 7.45pm I'll be as nervous as hell. By 7.55pm, I'll likely be in despair.
Monday 18th February
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Trial service: Staked 2pts, +2.52pts.
Spare me a thought tonight. At 7.45pm I'll be as nervous as hell. By 7.55pm, I'll likely be in despair.
Monday, 18 February 2013
Keeping the faith.
Telford to draw with Tamworth at 3.25.
Forest Green to beat Gateshead doubled with Salisbury to beat Billericay at 2.04.
Mansfield to beat Cambridge doubled with Eastleigh (Double Chance) at 2.71.
Eastleigh to beat Chelmsford doubled with Dover to beat Weston at 4.85.
11 points staked. Accrued profit: 20.29pts
It's no secret that Skeeve has had a bit of a 'mare over the first half of Season 2012-13. I'd mentioned in passing that at one point the bank was feeling the strain, as no doubt, were Skeeve himself and all of his followers. I was, I can admit it.
But, and it's a big but, I didn't ever lose faith in Skeeve himself. My confidence was knocked and if the bank had been blown, I'd have had no choice but to draw a line and move on. I was dreading this prospect. Seriously, really dreading it. I felt conflicted - how can someone whose methods and sheer hard work I admire hugely and trust implicitly be perilously close to blowing the bank?
The thing is, and this is the reason why the horrible run had such a profound effect, was that going into the season, Skeeve was one of the two or three services that I consider real keystones of the portfolio. The track record of the service, gained over the period of time it has been operating successfully, demanded that it be regarded as such. And so to see Skeeve suffer like he did...it wasn't easy.
All of this explains why I was so delighted on Saturday when the results listed at the top of this post materialised. Pleased for myself, obviously, but really chuffed for Skeeve. And look, I'm not counting any chickens here. Next weekend could be a blank one. This is gambling when all is said and done. There is still a lot of work to be done if the season as a whole is to produce any kind of profit and of course, that is not a good situation for a service that lies at the more expensive end of the market to subscribe to to find itself in. But February's performance as a whole makes things look a whole lot better than it did, and I for one, am delighted.
Elsewhere it was a good weekend for Summer Of Football which found five winners from seven bets. What I really like about this service is the consistency in approach to finding the selections, and yet I get the feeling that James himself feels he is still learning and improving as a tipster. I may be wrong about that, and I don't want to be putting words into his mouth as it may not be the case at all. It's just the impression I have, and I like it.
The Football Analyst 7-22 couldn't have maintained the pace it had set so far this month, and indeed it dropped a point and a half on Saturday, although E3-E7 came up with a nice winner.
Not such a good weekend for Football Elite which hit the target just the once from five tips.
The racing wasn't great either, with the only notable winner being Northern Monkey who found one winner from just one bet on Saturday (Solar Deity - Lingfield - 4/1).
So the figures from Friday 15th to Sunday 17th are:
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +2.4pts.
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, +0.05pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, -0.7pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 7pts, +2.83pts.
The Football Analyst 7-22: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Football Analyst E3-E7: Staked 0.5pts, +0.505pts.
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 2pts, +4.5pts.
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 9pts, +15.79pts.
Football Elite: Staked 2.5pts, -1.235pts.
Trial service: Staked 32pts, +2.253pts.
Forest Green to beat Gateshead doubled with Salisbury to beat Billericay at 2.04.
Mansfield to beat Cambridge doubled with Eastleigh (Double Chance) at 2.71.
Eastleigh to beat Chelmsford doubled with Dover to beat Weston at 4.85.
11 points staked. Accrued profit: 20.29pts
It's no secret that Skeeve has had a bit of a 'mare over the first half of Season 2012-13. I'd mentioned in passing that at one point the bank was feeling the strain, as no doubt, were Skeeve himself and all of his followers. I was, I can admit it.
But, and it's a big but, I didn't ever lose faith in Skeeve himself. My confidence was knocked and if the bank had been blown, I'd have had no choice but to draw a line and move on. I was dreading this prospect. Seriously, really dreading it. I felt conflicted - how can someone whose methods and sheer hard work I admire hugely and trust implicitly be perilously close to blowing the bank?
The thing is, and this is the reason why the horrible run had such a profound effect, was that going into the season, Skeeve was one of the two or three services that I consider real keystones of the portfolio. The track record of the service, gained over the period of time it has been operating successfully, demanded that it be regarded as such. And so to see Skeeve suffer like he did...it wasn't easy.
All of this explains why I was so delighted on Saturday when the results listed at the top of this post materialised. Pleased for myself, obviously, but really chuffed for Skeeve. And look, I'm not counting any chickens here. Next weekend could be a blank one. This is gambling when all is said and done. There is still a lot of work to be done if the season as a whole is to produce any kind of profit and of course, that is not a good situation for a service that lies at the more expensive end of the market to subscribe to to find itself in. But February's performance as a whole makes things look a whole lot better than it did, and I for one, am delighted.
Elsewhere it was a good weekend for Summer Of Football which found five winners from seven bets. What I really like about this service is the consistency in approach to finding the selections, and yet I get the feeling that James himself feels he is still learning and improving as a tipster. I may be wrong about that, and I don't want to be putting words into his mouth as it may not be the case at all. It's just the impression I have, and I like it.
The Football Analyst 7-22 couldn't have maintained the pace it had set so far this month, and indeed it dropped a point and a half on Saturday, although E3-E7 came up with a nice winner.
Not such a good weekend for Football Elite which hit the target just the once from five tips.
The racing wasn't great either, with the only notable winner being Northern Monkey who found one winner from just one bet on Saturday (Solar Deity - Lingfield - 4/1).
So the figures from Friday 15th to Sunday 17th are:
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +2.4pts.
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, +0.05pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, -0.7pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 7pts, +2.83pts.
The Football Analyst 7-22: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Football Analyst E3-E7: Staked 0.5pts, +0.505pts.
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 2pts, +4.5pts.
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 9pts, +15.79pts.
Football Elite: Staked 2.5pts, -1.235pts.
Trial service: Staked 32pts, +2.253pts.
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