Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Happy Christmas!

I decided to stay down in Ludlow for a couple of extra days and I have to say it has done me the power of good. I went with the intention of placing the bets as normal but on the drive down I felt that instead of worrying about catching prices and staying close to the laptop, I'd instead forget all about betting and concentrate on relaxing and spending time with the kids and the rest of my family. My parents are getting old and I'd rather make full use of the time we have left - spending time in the pub over a pint with my Dad, putting the world to rights, seemed a much more important, and enjoyable, proposition than scrutinizing and spending time spreading bets around in an attempt to remain under the bookies' radar. What taking a short break has made me realise is that next year, I really must make more of an effort to take the odd break from gambling to recharge the batteries and to stop getting obsessive about it all.

As it happens, I don't think I've missed too much. Saturday was marginally profitable so there has been no real to change to how things were when I last posted, and no service has been remarkably good or poor.

The plan now is to leave the blog until the New Year. I have one or two ideas about how I want to progress with it. I feel that this year I have been swinging from putting too many figures into the blog to not putting enough. What this blog needs is some consistency in terms of how results are recorded and I aim to do just that from January. There are also one or two ideas floating around the space between my ears about how I run the portfolio. Nothing drastic, but I do think that sometimes the way I go about things lacks a little dynamism at times and perhaps I need a subtle shift to a more proactive way of doing what I do. The way I'm thinking, I hope to be able to act on this and in a way that many of you will be able to follow and relate to. More on this in a couple of weeks.

In the meantime, please have a great Christmas, and thankyou for reading and leaving comments throughout the year. Roll on 2013!

I'll be back on January 1st.

Friday, 14 December 2012

Whoops...'s my Xmas do this evening. And then I'm off down to Shropshire for the weekend tomorrow, so no chance of blogging from there.

I think the best thing to do is to write a summary post on Tuesday when I get back home, pulling the weekend's betting performance together.

See you then.

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Quick one.

Sorry, folks. Really short of time tonight. I'm aware a few have left Comments and have sent me messages which I will reply to, hopefully tomorrow.

Wednesday's Betting

No joy, either for Northern Monkey (0/1) or Football Elite (0/1).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Must dash...

Wednesday, 12 December 2012

I hate football.

It's not football betting I'm giving up. It's football itself.

Best of luck to Bradford. They were deserving victors on the night. But jeez, I've not felt like this about football since Walsall knocked us out of the 1983 equivalent of the Capital One Cup.

So that's it. I'm off football. Don't want to talk about it, hear about it, read about it. I'm done.

At least, that is until our next match this coming Monday, when no doubt I'll be sitting on the edge of the sofa, glued again to the telly. An addict seeking his fix.

Tuesday's Betting

One bet, one super winner. Northern Monkey has certainly found his all weather feet (Woolfall Sovereign - Lingfield - 7/1). It was a fine day for Wayne all round. You can guess which football team he supports.


Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, +6.3pts.

Tuesday, 11 December 2012

The dreaded vote of confidence.

Very quick one tonight. I've got a meeting with the powers that be at Alderley United - at which I'm thinking I might well be getting the dreaded vote of confidence - and then it'll be time to catch the Arsenal.

Monday's Betting

A nice winner for Northern Monkey amongst Wayne's two selections (Aquilonius - Lingfield - 3/1), and the one DNB Football Elite bet returned stakes.

Talking of Football Elite, Matt sent out an interesting email this morning, reflecting on this season's underperformance. If I get the time, I'll jot down a few general thoughts on this tomorrow.

Finally, please go and read the latest blog post of The Value Bettor. It's all about attempting to control the impact that "luck" has on our betting. It makes for absolutely fascinating reading, and is thought-provoking to say the least. I shall be following the subsequent discussion very closely indeed.

Monday, 10 December 2012

Thoughts of giving up.

I've got to say that after another heavy Saturday loss, I found it difficult to get any sleep over the weekend. I lay in bed, tossing and turning into the early hours of Sunday morning, desperately searching for solutions to the many problems I'm now facing. How can I turn performance around? What can I do now that I haven't tried before?

Ultimately, what happens is out of my hands and I am relying on the ability and performance of others. I accept that. But when those others aren't doing what I need them to do, when they are producing results that are simply substandard, then what hope is there? It has been a really tough few weeks. I am beginning to dread waking up on Saturday mornings and having to deal with yet another blow to morale. If it goes on much longer like this, I am going to have to walk away. Seriously, I'm all out of ideas and perhaps the sensible thing to do is to turn my back on it all and find something else to do with my time. Certainly I've never been lower, and those that know me are beginning to talk about me, concerned for my welfare. This was supposed to be fun. It isn't any more.

I think it is always best to be brutally honest with yourself. If something is not working, then it is not working. It doesn't matter what previous successes have been enjoyed, it is the here and now that is important. I am now seriously thinking that perhaps now is the time to draw the line, accept that I have done my best and that ultimately it wasn't good enough. My tactics are obviously not astute enough. My strategies flawed. This is one losing run that I fear is too long for this blogger.

Yep. You guessed it. Alderley United U10s suffered yet another heavy loss on Saturday. 5-0! 5 - bleedin' - 0! The team's fifth successive loss. Those dozy oiks are just not doing what I'm telling them to do and as a result I am now a manager under pressure. My own lad hasn't scored for three matches. I don't care if it was his birthday yesterday, he wasn't allowed out of his room. Not even to eat. I've told him...when he starts scoring again, then he can eat. Not until. He's got to learn.

The betting? Well, it wasn't spectacularly successful but a profit on the weekend was made and that makes for quite the refreshing change. If only everything in life was as simple and straightforward, eh?

Weekend's Betting

No joy at all on the racing front, with On The Nose suffering for the second consecutive weekend (0/6). No better elsewhere - Winning Racing Tips (0/1) and The Sportsman Racing (0/1).

Skeeve played things a little cautiously but reaped the rewards of a winning double. The Asian picks produced a marginal loss with one called correctly from two.

A profitable weekend for Summer Of Football with three wins, two losses and a void, and also for The Football Analyst with 7/22 coming up with a win and two void bets with just a small loser on the E3-E7 European system. One winner from one selection for The Sportsman.

Sadly Sportyy picked a couple of losers over the weekend, and Football Elite are running at a loss with one bet to come this evening (One win, one void, and two losses).

On The Nose: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Skeeve: Staked 9pts, +6.134pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 6pts, +0.894pts.
The Football Analyst: Staked 2.25pts, +0.683pts.
Sportyy: Staked 4.5pts, -4.5pts.
Football Elite: Staked 4pts, -1.71pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.177pts.

Talking of Sportyy, a nice offer from Dani to extend subscription period for a month and a half after a quiet November and December.

Finally, after a great first month to this season's betting, The Value Bettor is pressing ahead again...a more heavily staked winner at 11/1 (Fulgora - Warwick) yesterday!!!

Friday, 7 December 2012

What a plonker!

I really am a plank sometimes. There I was, going on about the kids being off school and closing the blog down today until the New Year, when I realised it was the end of next week that they (and I) break up! Have you any idea how disappointing it is to realise that you have another week of work to do before you finish? Gutted, I am. Gutted.

So, loyal readers, it looks like you'll have to put up with my blatherings for another week or so.

Still, I'm not promising anything insightful or entertaining these next few days (heh! chance would be a fine thing, I can hear you all saying). I've got a million and one thoughts going through my head at the moment, and I think the prudent thing to do is keep them to myself until I've got my plans in order. So keep reading if you want to see how the betting is going but if you're looking for anything meatier, I'd tune out until the New Year.

And so, without any further ado...

Thursday's Betting

A loser for On The Nose was the only bet I had.

On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.

Thursday, 6 December 2012

I love it when a plan comes together.

It was only yesterday that I commended Wayne of Northern Monkey for the help he'd given me with a couple of things recently. Of course, an exemplary level of customer service from any tipster service is one thing, but we mustn't lose sight of the fact that we pay our subs fees as an investment that should produce a return by way of gambling profit.

There are times when a tipster pulls everything together to produce a cracking tip, and yesterday Wayne did just that. The rationale behind the bet was obviously sound, exceptional value identified, and the confidence to go in big with the stake justified beautifully by the performance of the horse (Mawaakef - Kempton - 12/1). Lovely when it all comes together like that.

Wednesday's Betting

A good day thanks to Northern Monkey's effort (1/2). The only other bet was a loser from Sportyy.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, +10.25pts.

Sportyy: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.

Other than that, there's not much to talk about. The weather is affecting the racing and I can't see things getting much busier until the weekend.

Ah...the weekend. Weekend performance has to turn around sometime, doesn't it?

Wednesday, 5 December 2012

All change?

I mentioned the other day that I was going to be taking some time out over the Christmas break to examine and analyse the portfolio with a view to making some changes for the new year. Reading back to myself what I had written, I think perhaps that I may have given the impression that some drastic alterations were likely to be made. Well that is certainly not the case. There is the possibility of a small change or two, but nothing major.

What changes I will make will be dictated more by changes in personal circumstances than any other factor. 2013 has the potential to be a hugely significant year in my life. I don't mean to sound all mysterious about things, but if certain things happen which might well do then my portfolio will change, and hopefully develop, significantly. However, that is all in the future. In the meantime, I want to simply try to keep the portfolio ticking over.

It's been a very tough few weeks. When things turn sharply for the worse, I think there is a tendency to look to make changes where really they don't need to be made. Perhaps there was an element of this that showed through in my posts recently, and why I got the impression from what I had written the other day that drastic measures were being contemplated. They're not.

Having said that, there are one or two issues within the portfolio that do need to be addressed, and it is finding solutions to these issues that I need to find when I take a look at things. What may happen is that I take a holiday from one or two services - a temporary break before hopefully resuming with them a little further down the line when those changing circumstances I was going on about take effect.

Whatever happens, keep reading this blog. It could be an interesting year ahead.

Finally today, I want to say a public thankyou to Wayne of Northern Monkey. I asked Wayne some questions based on the end of year review email he sent out to subscribers last week. The answers Wayne sent back went way beyond being comprehensive and helpful. Top levels of customer service should always be recognised. The thing is I think most, if not all, the tipsters I follow would be similarly helpful if asked, and that can only be a very good thing.

Tuesday's Betting

Quiet at the moment, but that feels like no bad thing after the car crash weekends we've been having recently.

No joy on the racing front yesterday - Northern Monkey (0/1) and Winning Racing Tips (0/1).

Two bets from Sportyy and a small profit secured with one winner (Zenit DNB vs AC Milan - 2.11).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, -0.4pts.

Sportyy: Staked 2.5pts, +0.663pts.

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Quick - purgatory awaits...

...for that is what watching a poor Arsenal team in a meaningless game in Greece undoubtedly will be. But, I'm a glutton for punishment, so just a very quick round-up of yesterday's betting so that I can go and wallow in my own football-induced misery.

Monday's Betting

Two each way bets in the same race for Winning Racing Tips, both of which placed for a wee profit. No joy for Northern Monkey (0/1).

Sportyy with a nice winner in Spain (Over 2.5 goals - Sevilla vs Valladolid - 1.8).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.6pts, +0.46pts.

Sportyy: Staked 2pts, +1.802pts.

Monday, 3 December 2012

Let's ban Saturdays.

Oh, dear.

It's a tough old game at times, isn't it? Without going into too much detail, Friday was a very good day, Saturday an absolute shocker (again!), and Sunday turned a marginal profit.

I was at a family get together in deepest, darkest Shropshire on Saturday. I placed all bets other than the unsuccessful Winning Racing Tips each way double, and then completely lost all track of events as they were happening. No mobile signal meant I was unable to follow the nightmare that was unravelling, and thank heavens for that! Fortunately, I was also completely oblivious to Arsenal's continuing woes but on the flip side missed the England rugby team's triumph.

It wasn't until I got home late (very late) on Saturday, had carried the kids to bed and poured myself a warming brandy, that I checked the results. It was a good job there was brandy available - it went from a being a comforting, pre-sleep tipple to a life-saving defibrillator of a drink that would have been more appropriately brought to me by a St. Bernard's dog.

Unfortunately, the service that bore the brunt of the destruction was Skeeve. A loss of 18 points leaves my bank perilously close to the edge (75% of the bank, although I usually translate the cost of subs into a point value and deduct this amount from the bank to counter the leveraging I apply to my funds), and I'm praying that next week brings some sort of recovery. Despite this horrendous losing run, my faith in Skeeve as a tipster remains. The cold reality for any service though is that once the bank dedicated to it is gone, it is gone.

If I know Skeeve at all, no-one will be hurting more than he is right now with how the results have gone, and no-one would be more determined to turn things around. His is a service built on years of success; success that has been the consequence of a huge amount of work and dedication. I really hope for his sake, aswell as mine, that he manages to pull this around.

The other service to go through the wringer again this weekend was Football Elite. After a promising winner on Friday, Saturday and Sunday saw three losers from three bets. The drawdown for FE this season now stands at 32% of the bank, and as another "big-hitter" within the portfolio, this too, is hurting.

On The Nose had a stinker of a weekend and of course when that happens, the old Demons start to whisper in your ear once more. It would be such a shame for OTN to have a poor end to a year which started so badly but which has recovered some form since midsummer.

A small loss was made by Summer Of Football, but I think it was fair for James to say in his weekly review email that the weekend's performance represented a flattening out of the slump. Of course that remains to be seen and really it is only with hindsight that we will be able to assess whether or not that is what this weekend proves to be. I know what he means though, and it does certainly feel that way.

A profit for The Football Analyst with a good winner in Italy yesterday to counter the 7/22 loser of Saturday, and The Sportsman weighed in with one winner from one bet, which is hard to fault. :)

A winner too for The Market Examiner to get their month off to a flier, and Sportyy more or less broke even with a couple of losers and a couple of winners.

I just want to outline my blogging plans a little. Seeing my wife return from the shops yesterday with a big tin of Quality Street forced me to accept that Christmas is not very far away at all. I am determined to spend as much time as possible with the kids over the holidays. They deserve it. As they break up from school ridiculously early (it seems if you have to pay for a school, the kids aren't actually at it for that long!), I'm off work ridiculously early too. Anyway, before I get sidetracked, the point is that I don't want to be blogging instead of playing Cluedo, Monopoly or watching ET of an evening.

With this in mind, I'll post up until the end of this week, and then take a break until the New Year. There are going to be some changes to the portfolio for a variety of reasons, chiefly geared towards helping me get some of my life back, but I can go into these in more detail when the time comes.

I also want to sort out some sort of routine for the blog. I'm well aware that sometimes I post results, other times not, and I don't like the inconsistency. Leave it with me - I'll get it sorted.

'Til tomorrow.