You know, writing this stuff about full time gambling this week has really got the old grey matter working. When you start scratching at the surface of the subject a little, you soon realise that there's an awful lot involved in making such a move. A huge amount to think about.
I think the one myth that is very easy to dismiss is the notion that somehow professional gambling is an "easy life". Stick your bets on, count the winnings. Nothing could be further from the truth. I work hard at my gambling now, whilst it is still just a supplement to my main source of income. I try and be as professional as possible without being neurotic about it all. I appreciate the need to secure the best odds possible on each bet and I'm aware that we're working to pretty tight margins, so everything that can be done to maximise that margin should and must be done, within reason. I understand the importance of keeping bookmaker accounts viable for as long as possible and the compromises that sometimes brings. And I have researched, analysed, tapped up others for insight and finally identified a way forward without having to worry quite so much that my betting is going to come to a grinding halt any day now, simply because I can't get a bet on.
The methodologies I follow and the principles of professionalism that I try to bring to the way I gamble would, I hope, make the actual, physical transition into betting for a living a pretty smooth one to make. Anon, in the comments section, forwarded the very sensible viewpoint that professional gambling was no different to any other type of job in the sense that it is something that you get better at over time and with practice. When I think back over the three years that I have been gambling "properly", I cringe at some of the crass mistakes I used to make. And you know something? I still make mistakes, it's just that they tend not to be quite so basic nowadays.
Looking at running my portfolio this context, I see these last three years as amounting to an apprenticeship served. I've completed the YTS scheme (do they still do those?) and am ready to jump into the grown up world and make my way. That is, in terms of the hands-on physical running of the betting portfolio. But there's so much more to the equation than that, isn't there? The actual doing is really only half the battle.
The other half is all in the head. Alan, as is his wont, made a very valid point a couple of days ago in a very succinct manner. He said:
Isn t it amazing how being in profit changes your thinking.
Would you have been asking yourself the same question at this time last year? No. last year the question was, "is this all worth it"
And he's right. Things have gone pretty well on the profit and loss front since last Autumn (although I seem to remember December being a bit sticky). There was a weekend two or three months back that proved so frustrating that I let my pent-up, gloomy thoughts loose on the blog, but generally speaking, things have been going ok. If they hadn't, would I have even raised the subject of betting full time? No.
What I would say though is that I have a keener sense of direction now with my portfolio; a definite strategy, and that helps enormously. Cutting back the number of horse racing bets (through necessity, I might add) has helped massively with the mental side of things. I feel a lot more comfortable with my portfolio now, and that is probably bourne out of the shorter losing runs suffered when betting predominantly on shorter priced football selections. So I would suggest to anyone considering going full time and relying on tipster services, they really do need to mould their portfolio into a shape that fits their psychological profile as snugly as it possibly can. It also makes me realise that I am not much of a gambler, which is kind of ironic, don't you think? I don't like gambling. I do enjoy investing and the challenges it brings, and am prepared to take a risk when doing so. But to be honest, I believe that if I were betting full time, I would feel, no, would know, that what I was doing was running a business. A small one admittedly, but a business nevertheless. Strange that that outlook doesn't provoke the feelings of fear when considering the risks involved as does simply saying simply, "I'm going to gamble for my living".
The final point I want to consider is that of putting your financial security into the hands of others...of relying on the expertise of others to make money compared to finding and exploiting your own edge to exploit. Ian, in the Comments sections said:
I guess things are very different now to what they were 13 years ago when I gave up work. Plus things are very difft running a site which provides an income and relying on my own info for betting. Therein lies the crux - relying on other people would make things extremely difficult
Ian's rationale behind his assertion was that putting your fate into the hands of others leads quite naturally to feelings of angst and frustration when things go badly. Far better, he feels, to find your own way and rely on your own resources. I can see where Ian is coming from, I really can. It all depends I suppose, how much faith you have in the tipsters you're following. But placing this to one side, I would suggest that being able to generate a level of income to add to that generated by the use of third party tipsters would be the ideal scenario?
My vision, my ambition, is to manoeuvre myself into such a position. I have neglected my trading for a little while for various reasons, but it is not something that I have forgotten about. Far from it. The trouble I have of course is that the time I can dedicate to trading is minimal. That of course, wouldn't be the case were I gambling/trading for a living. It would take me time to get to the point where I could come to rely on my trading as a consistent source of income; it would represent another apprenticeship to serve. But, a situation whereby I'm generating a decent income from both gambling and trading does not seem to me to be an impossible dream. In fact, it sounds like a plan.
Today's Betting
Great end to the month for The Market Examiner, following yesterday's winner with a grand one today (Autarch - Brighton - 10/1). Northern Monkey found a nice one to place and provide a very small profit from two selections (Weapon Of Choice - Sandown - 14/1). Finally, no success with a small each way double for Winning Racing Tips.
And that brings an end to another month. Not been too shabby, although not as successful as had appeared possible a couple of weeks ago. I'm off on holiday now for a week so there will be no blog until I return and no monthly review until then. Bottom line though...just over £7k staked and a profit running at a shade over 9%. Not going to complain.
Finally, a big thanks to everyone who contributed this week. Very much appreciated.
See you all later. :)
Thursday, 31 May 2012
Wednesday, 30 May 2012
Practical considerations.
Get yourself a cuppa or pour yourself a glass of wine and settle in. It's a long one.
I was delighted to have two comments left under yesterday's post, each by folk who are in a particularly strong position to comment on the subject of going pro for reasons that you will read within the posts. The first is from Mark of Tradinghorses...
I've had the benefit of experiencing a big corporate job, followed by 2 years of professional 'gambling', followed by a return this year to a corporate role, so I feel pretty well qualified on the subject!
One element of betting/trading that I overlooked was the self-employment aspect. No paid holidays, no sick pay, no bonus, no company pension contribution, no car, no annual pay award and so on. For anyone used to running their own business the step into professional gambling would surely have less impact, but for me I hadn't fully appreciated just how much I took for granted in the corporate job.
More significant was the amount of time that I spent thinking about my trading when I wasn't supposed to be working. I managed to get myself into a pretty decent position in terms of monthly income and I had every reason to forget the trading until racing started each day, but it was never that simple. I mentioned in my blog the other day that professional betting/trading can become all-consuming. It's so easy to get completely absorbed in the job to such an extent that you don't enjoy your 'free' time as much as you would expect. Some days would be losing ones. I didn't have the mental strength to be able to switch off from a poor day's trading and enjoy the next morning on the golf course before work. I found myself spending some mornings analysing what went wrong and what I needed to do to fix it. Other mornings I would find myself researching new angles with a view to spreading my risk. I've just enjoyed a fantastic week's holiday with the family and have hardly thought about work at all.
A further consideration for anybody contemplating the move is whether they can cope with the loneliness factor. Having worked with large teams of people for most of my career I found myself really struggling with feeling isolated from the world after a few months. This got progressively worse (as did the CV incidentally). Now, having been back in a social working environment for a few months, I know that trading alone in a home-based office will never suit me as well as being out and about. Yes I am no longer my own boss, but with that comes a degree of security that I didn't have whilst trading. You make the point that in today's economic environment every job has its risks, and that's true to an extent, but for me the balance tips in favour of not being solely dependant on myself for my living as long as I can make that last. I now have the support of a large corporation when things are not going so well, and I have my colleagues to have a laugh with along the way.
All of which leads to me to conclude that being self-employed in any business wouldn't suit me as well as being part of a company. This is only a personal view and we're all different of course. One final point I would make is that I don't agree with the comment made yesterday about having to find your own methods to become a true professional. Whilst I did find my own methods, you are still a professional in my view if your main source of income comes from betting/trading, whether you're following tipsters or not.
Then, we have a chap whose name I don't know but who has contributed a couple of times now to the blog, and brings with him a particularly clear insight...
Hi Rowan,
Interesting thoughts.
I became a fulltimegambler 1-1-2011 and still am a fulltimegambler.
I enjoy it very much but I agree with Mark that it can be a bit lonely, and the decisions you have to make on your own, you can never ask someone's opinion because there are no people who you work with together.
A solutions is (what I did) it to find an other gambler(s) to share experiences... I email every day to an other gambler and that helps a lot must say! Sharing experiences is great and discussing a problem with someone else helps me also! A blog is good also, but you never know who is going to read it and with an email you know who is reading it!
Mentally for sure it is tough, especially these bad losings are tough to handle.
That is the hard part, the good part is the amount of freedom of course, to be your own boss and fill in the workinghours as you like, I really like that part!
I usually work between 9.00 -18.00 , after that I stop working, turn my PC off and forget about betting and for some reason that works, when I watch TV for instance I do not think of betting at all, in the beginning I could not do that really but now this is going okay. Just make sure you have some distraction(s)!
For me I have no regrets in trying to become a fulltimegambler... I still do not know if I am good enough or mentally strong enough, time will tell! But being a fulltimegambler takes time, probably a few years to be really good, for sure I am not there yet!
I am following systems developed by other people, but I do not think that is a big disadvantage...
These systems consists of a set of rules, I do not mind that someone else invented these systems.
Making your own systems is a very hard nut to crack, you need very good knowledge of the sports and even than... you are completely independent of course but it is so difficult.
I think the questions you have to ask yourself:
What risk do I really take? If you would quit your job is it possible to go back to your old job if it does not work out, in other words how easy is it to find a job again if things do not work out?
Do I have enough money to survive a certain period (at least one year, preferable three years) without salary in other words what are the financial consequences?
The longer the period you can survive without salary the less stresss you will have...
When I started I could survive three years without salary, that makes it a lot easier, less stressfull than 1 year for example, you get nervous pretty soon!
Maybe you could send SBC an email and ask them about their opinion?
I guess the most important part is to be realistic with your (financial) expectations...
With levels of prescience that the Oracle of Delphi could only aspire to, Mark and Anon have touched nicely upon points that I had always intended to address in today's post - what practical elements do we need to consider before making the jump from salaried employment to professional betting?
There is no doubt that the "fringe" benefits of salaried employment would be missed, not least a regular contribution to the pension pot. Contrary to the impression you may get from some of the ramblings you often get from me on this blog, I do still possess my marbles, and am physically and mentally capable of placing my bets, recording my results, analysing my performance and executing all the other necessary gambling related tasks. Can I guarantee that I could when I'm 70 though? No. I can't. More to the point, would I want to be relying on day to day gambling or trading and the natural stresses that go with them when I'm that age? No, I wouldn't. So immediately we can see that we must look above and beyond simply existing on a day by day basis; that the revenue we generate must allow for forward financial planning that will provide sufficiently for when we get to the stage of life when we are incapable or unwilling to lead the life of a professional gambler.
Other benefits associated with working for a company will fall by the wayside too. Private health insurance possibly, paid holidays definitely. Increases in basic salary to counter the effects of inflation. Car allowances/company cars? What happens if we get seriously ill? I guess the Missus could take over (certainly she's capable) but it is far from ideal with no sickness coverage. All these things must be accounted for and planned for in the sense of ensuring that we can pay for adequate cover. I'm not an insurance junkie, but I can see it's worth in certain areas of life.
Funnily enough, I think all of the things I've mentioned so far can be covered with adequate and realistic planning (allied to appropriate shifts in lifestyle). It's Mark's point about how professional betting/trading can easily become all consuming that really chimes the warning bell, for on a personal level, I can easily see this happening. Which would be silly, for if a part of going pro' is to bring about a change in lifestyle, then you would want the new lifestyle to be as you had hoped. Otherwise, what would be the point? You know, this is where I would rely on family. I think at the beginning they would need to impress upon me the need to turn off, to remind me what it was we were trying to achieve together. It wouldn't be easy. In fact, this would be one of the hardest aspects for me personally to deal with in the change.
Contrary to Mark and Anon's thoughts (they are obviously both nicer blokes than I am :) ), I would find "loneliness" not even registering on my personal "to be concerned about" radar. I'm an unsociable git! If I didn't have family, I'd spend my holidays on the most remote of Scottish islands. All I'd need is a good stock of books, cases of wine, food and firewood. Ah, bliss! Seriously though, the idea of a remote rural existence appeals - just me, the wife and the kids. I've online friends (and that's not the sort of online friend who calls herself Cindi and who spends most of her time scampily clad in front of a camera in her spare room) and a good mate since childhood, but other than that, I tend to have acquaintances rather than proper friends. I get on very well with my work colleagues but the relationship there is different. When you work with the same six people for at least ten years and as many as sixteen, the relationships you forge are more akin to siblings than workmates. They can visit! All that said, I do like Anon's idea of communicating regularly with fellow professional gamblers - I can see that helping deal with the stress. But this blog isn't supposed to be about me - Mark's/Anon's point is a valid one, and one most would need to consider long and hard before leaving the 9-5 workplace. Me? Nah.
Finally, the last practicality we must be assured of is the ability on an ongoing basis to get our bets on. This of course is a subject that has had a great deal of coverage in this blog. The ability to strike bets is also the central motivator behind my forced move away from such exposure to horse racing and increasing my exposure to sports/football betting. I wouldn't want to put all my financial eggs into the one Asian bookmaker basket though, and back up plans would be necessary to counter what would otherwise be a catastrophic event should Pinnacle or the like go out of business or decide that Betfred was the business model to copy. There's not the room here to go into all of this again. Suffice to say, before going pro', you'd need to be as sure as you can be that you're physically going to be able to get your money down.
Last installment on this subject tomorrow, I think, before I disappear on holiday. So if anyone has any more thoughts, now's the time to get them over. :)
Today's Betting
It sure has been an up, down and up again month for The Market Examiner. Started off very well, desparate losing run, and now the winners are coming again. Amongst today's three selections lay a very nice winner (Landaman - Beverley - 13/2).
Not much happening elsewhere. The Winning Racing Tips bet came second for a very small loss, and no luck for Northern Monkey (0/1). The Summer Of Football bet last night in Brazil was a loser.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, -0.05pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, +4.5pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
By the way, I've typed this post whilst listening to Radio 5's special programme on Hansie Cronje. Absolutely fascinating, and follows on from another great production I listened to the other night on the best ever pieces of football commentary. Radio, and the BBC at it's very best. If you get the chance to listen on the BBC website, do so. You won't be disappointed.
I was delighted to have two comments left under yesterday's post, each by folk who are in a particularly strong position to comment on the subject of going pro for reasons that you will read within the posts. The first is from Mark of Tradinghorses...
I've had the benefit of experiencing a big corporate job, followed by 2 years of professional 'gambling', followed by a return this year to a corporate role, so I feel pretty well qualified on the subject!
One element of betting/trading that I overlooked was the self-employment aspect. No paid holidays, no sick pay, no bonus, no company pension contribution, no car, no annual pay award and so on. For anyone used to running their own business the step into professional gambling would surely have less impact, but for me I hadn't fully appreciated just how much I took for granted in the corporate job.
More significant was the amount of time that I spent thinking about my trading when I wasn't supposed to be working. I managed to get myself into a pretty decent position in terms of monthly income and I had every reason to forget the trading until racing started each day, but it was never that simple. I mentioned in my blog the other day that professional betting/trading can become all-consuming. It's so easy to get completely absorbed in the job to such an extent that you don't enjoy your 'free' time as much as you would expect. Some days would be losing ones. I didn't have the mental strength to be able to switch off from a poor day's trading and enjoy the next morning on the golf course before work. I found myself spending some mornings analysing what went wrong and what I needed to do to fix it. Other mornings I would find myself researching new angles with a view to spreading my risk. I've just enjoyed a fantastic week's holiday with the family and have hardly thought about work at all.
A further consideration for anybody contemplating the move is whether they can cope with the loneliness factor. Having worked with large teams of people for most of my career I found myself really struggling with feeling isolated from the world after a few months. This got progressively worse (as did the CV incidentally). Now, having been back in a social working environment for a few months, I know that trading alone in a home-based office will never suit me as well as being out and about. Yes I am no longer my own boss, but with that comes a degree of security that I didn't have whilst trading. You make the point that in today's economic environment every job has its risks, and that's true to an extent, but for me the balance tips in favour of not being solely dependant on myself for my living as long as I can make that last. I now have the support of a large corporation when things are not going so well, and I have my colleagues to have a laugh with along the way.
All of which leads to me to conclude that being self-employed in any business wouldn't suit me as well as being part of a company. This is only a personal view and we're all different of course. One final point I would make is that I don't agree with the comment made yesterday about having to find your own methods to become a true professional. Whilst I did find my own methods, you are still a professional in my view if your main source of income comes from betting/trading, whether you're following tipsters or not.
Then, we have a chap whose name I don't know but who has contributed a couple of times now to the blog, and brings with him a particularly clear insight...
Hi Rowan,
Interesting thoughts.
I became a fulltimegambler 1-1-2011 and still am a fulltimegambler.
I enjoy it very much but I agree with Mark that it can be a bit lonely, and the decisions you have to make on your own, you can never ask someone's opinion because there are no people who you work with together.
A solutions is (what I did) it to find an other gambler(s) to share experiences... I email every day to an other gambler and that helps a lot must say! Sharing experiences is great and discussing a problem with someone else helps me also! A blog is good also, but you never know who is going to read it and with an email you know who is reading it!
Mentally for sure it is tough, especially these bad losings are tough to handle.
That is the hard part, the good part is the amount of freedom of course, to be your own boss and fill in the workinghours as you like, I really like that part!
I usually work between 9.00 -18.00 , after that I stop working, turn my PC off and forget about betting and for some reason that works, when I watch TV for instance I do not think of betting at all, in the beginning I could not do that really but now this is going okay. Just make sure you have some distraction(s)!
For me I have no regrets in trying to become a fulltimegambler... I still do not know if I am good enough or mentally strong enough, time will tell! But being a fulltimegambler takes time, probably a few years to be really good, for sure I am not there yet!
I am following systems developed by other people, but I do not think that is a big disadvantage...
These systems consists of a set of rules, I do not mind that someone else invented these systems.
Making your own systems is a very hard nut to crack, you need very good knowledge of the sports and even than... you are completely independent of course but it is so difficult.
I think the questions you have to ask yourself:
What risk do I really take? If you would quit your job is it possible to go back to your old job if it does not work out, in other words how easy is it to find a job again if things do not work out?
Do I have enough money to survive a certain period (at least one year, preferable three years) without salary in other words what are the financial consequences?
The longer the period you can survive without salary the less stresss you will have...
When I started I could survive three years without salary, that makes it a lot easier, less stressfull than 1 year for example, you get nervous pretty soon!
Maybe you could send SBC an email and ask them about their opinion?
I guess the most important part is to be realistic with your (financial) expectations...
With levels of prescience that the Oracle of Delphi could only aspire to, Mark and Anon have touched nicely upon points that I had always intended to address in today's post - what practical elements do we need to consider before making the jump from salaried employment to professional betting?
There is no doubt that the "fringe" benefits of salaried employment would be missed, not least a regular contribution to the pension pot. Contrary to the impression you may get from some of the ramblings you often get from me on this blog, I do still possess my marbles, and am physically and mentally capable of placing my bets, recording my results, analysing my performance and executing all the other necessary gambling related tasks. Can I guarantee that I could when I'm 70 though? No. I can't. More to the point, would I want to be relying on day to day gambling or trading and the natural stresses that go with them when I'm that age? No, I wouldn't. So immediately we can see that we must look above and beyond simply existing on a day by day basis; that the revenue we generate must allow for forward financial planning that will provide sufficiently for when we get to the stage of life when we are incapable or unwilling to lead the life of a professional gambler.
Other benefits associated with working for a company will fall by the wayside too. Private health insurance possibly, paid holidays definitely. Increases in basic salary to counter the effects of inflation. Car allowances/company cars? What happens if we get seriously ill? I guess the Missus could take over (certainly she's capable) but it is far from ideal with no sickness coverage. All these things must be accounted for and planned for in the sense of ensuring that we can pay for adequate cover. I'm not an insurance junkie, but I can see it's worth in certain areas of life.
Funnily enough, I think all of the things I've mentioned so far can be covered with adequate and realistic planning (allied to appropriate shifts in lifestyle). It's Mark's point about how professional betting/trading can easily become all consuming that really chimes the warning bell, for on a personal level, I can easily see this happening. Which would be silly, for if a part of going pro' is to bring about a change in lifestyle, then you would want the new lifestyle to be as you had hoped. Otherwise, what would be the point? You know, this is where I would rely on family. I think at the beginning they would need to impress upon me the need to turn off, to remind me what it was we were trying to achieve together. It wouldn't be easy. In fact, this would be one of the hardest aspects for me personally to deal with in the change.
Contrary to Mark and Anon's thoughts (they are obviously both nicer blokes than I am :) ), I would find "loneliness" not even registering on my personal "to be concerned about" radar. I'm an unsociable git! If I didn't have family, I'd spend my holidays on the most remote of Scottish islands. All I'd need is a good stock of books, cases of wine, food and firewood. Ah, bliss! Seriously though, the idea of a remote rural existence appeals - just me, the wife and the kids. I've online friends (and that's not the sort of online friend who calls herself Cindi and who spends most of her time scampily clad in front of a camera in her spare room) and a good mate since childhood, but other than that, I tend to have acquaintances rather than proper friends. I get on very well with my work colleagues but the relationship there is different. When you work with the same six people for at least ten years and as many as sixteen, the relationships you forge are more akin to siblings than workmates. They can visit! All that said, I do like Anon's idea of communicating regularly with fellow professional gamblers - I can see that helping deal with the stress. But this blog isn't supposed to be about me - Mark's/Anon's point is a valid one, and one most would need to consider long and hard before leaving the 9-5 workplace. Me? Nah.
Finally, the last practicality we must be assured of is the ability on an ongoing basis to get our bets on. This of course is a subject that has had a great deal of coverage in this blog. The ability to strike bets is also the central motivator behind my forced move away from such exposure to horse racing and increasing my exposure to sports/football betting. I wouldn't want to put all my financial eggs into the one Asian bookmaker basket though, and back up plans would be necessary to counter what would otherwise be a catastrophic event should Pinnacle or the like go out of business or decide that Betfred was the business model to copy. There's not the room here to go into all of this again. Suffice to say, before going pro', you'd need to be as sure as you can be that you're physically going to be able to get your money down.
Last installment on this subject tomorrow, I think, before I disappear on holiday. So if anyone has any more thoughts, now's the time to get them over. :)
Today's Betting
It sure has been an up, down and up again month for The Market Examiner. Started off very well, desparate losing run, and now the winners are coming again. Amongst today's three selections lay a very nice winner (Landaman - Beverley - 13/2).
Not much happening elsewhere. The Winning Racing Tips bet came second for a very small loss, and no luck for Northern Monkey (0/1). The Summer Of Football bet last night in Brazil was a loser.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, -0.05pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, +4.5pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
By the way, I've typed this post whilst listening to Radio 5's special programme on Hansie Cronje. Absolutely fascinating, and follows on from another great production I listened to the other night on the best ever pieces of football commentary. Radio, and the BBC at it's very best. If you get the chance to listen on the BBC website, do so. You won't be disappointed.
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
Psychology - can we control it's impact and effects?
First off, thankyou to the posters who left comments under yesterday's posts. Worth a read if you haven't done so already. Some interesting issues/suggestions raised.
Right, I think I need to make one thing very clear after yesterday's post. I am NOT thinking of jacking my job in to go full time punting. As things stand at the moment, even if I wanted to I couldn't, for reasons that will become apparent later in this post.
What prompted me to blog on the subject of going pro' was a comment I made last week about putting myself in the position where I could if I chose to. Getting myself into a position where I have the choice is going to take time. It will mean a) making profits; that b) can be ploughed straight back into the betting operation. 'B' could be tricky, as the income generated by my betting does come in more than handy with coping with the costs of everyday life.
The point I was really trying to make yesterday was that with job security becoming something to be enjoyed only by a privileged few, taking the risk of jumping into full time betting may not be the leap it once was. The risk part of the risk:reward ratio aligned to such a move has and is decreasing. People giving up a salaried job are perhaps not giving up as much as they once were, for not only are there decreasing levels of job security, but the ability to save adequately for retirement - even if salaried - is becoming more and more compromised.
Having said all that, there surely remains a huge psychological gap to jump if giving up the monthly pay cheque in favour of relying on the outcome of football matches and the ability of certain horses to run fast for one's financial wellbeing. I would also suggest that if we are to go betting full time to allow more time to be spent with the kids, etc., then spending all waking hours stressing about bets and losing runs might just take the edge off it all! There'd be no point in changing lifestyle if you still couldn't enjoy it, would there?
If we analyse the sources of stress when gambling, what do we find? Is it possible to identify specific sources of gambling-related stress and then do something about them to facilitate a life of gambling largely (but not entirely, I'm sure) devoid of the causes of stomach ulcers and tension headaches?
Possibly, is my answer. To my mind, and I speak entirely subjectively here, if you have a number of services that you have faith in, and you have a bankroll of sufficient size, plus funds in the bank that you can call on to act as a buffer to the inevitable losing spells to draw upon to maintain your standard of living for a decent period of time (perhaps two years?), then the stress would possibly be soothed. I can't imagine it would disappear entirely, but rather hang around, lurking just beneath the surface, ready to cause havoc given half a chance.
I'd wager (heh!) that the most common cause of gambling-stress is trying to achieve too much with too little funding. A betting bank of insufficient size or over-leveraging, perhaps. If I were going full time, I would forget about leveraging. I leverage my betting funds at the moment. But were I gambling for a living, the sense of security I would get from not leveraging at all would probably provide a rather snug comfort blanket. It would make little financial sense and would mean that looking at things entirely objectively, some funds were being under-utilised, but what I might lose from not maximising the impact/power my betting bank might hold would be countered by the psychological benefits. Possibly as confidence grew from making a success out of things, then an element of leveraging could be introduced. But as the biggest part of the battle, initially at least, is a psychological one, would this not make sense?
So, there's my solution, and therefore ultimate aim...to win enough to get to the point where there are a couple of year's living expenses in the bank and separate betting funds sufficient to not feel obliged to apply leverage. Getting to that point might be dependant to an extent upon profit-making, but let's not forget that I was talking about changing lifestyle. I guess people in my situation could gain a significant, if not the total sum of necessary funds from the process of "downsizing" that would be an inevitable (and desirable) part of the whole process.
I know from experience what it is like setting up a new business. Although the company I work for is not my company (err, obviously), I was one of two members present in the office on Day 1, the other being the owner. I was 24, had just six months' experience gained at a "big" company, had just taken out my first mortgage two months' previously, and my wife (girlfriend as she was then) had just quit her deadend job to start upon a "proper" career role. It was high pressure, but it was an opportunity. Would changing to gambling for a living, with funds behind you that were sizeable if not bottomless, really involve more pressure than that scenario sixteen years ago? Does it provide a real opportunity? Of course, all these questions are rhetorical, as I've not done it. There may be a few readers who have made the jump who are laughing their socks off reading this "shit", thinking I don't have a clue. And who would I be to argue with them?
I'm aware that what I'm writing here is only from my own personal viewpoint. Others may have bigger concerns and sources of psychological pressure when it comes to gambling. The point remains though - can these sources of pressure be dealt with sufficiently to make professional betting a realistic career-option, and one that is no more stressful (when we think about it) than the sort of salaried position that most endure?
Tomorrow, the practicalities.
Today's Betting
Not much by way of returns today. The Sportsman Racing had an each way selection come in second (Raleigh Quay - Ripon - 100/30 and 7/2) for a small loss. No success today for Winning Racing Tips (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/3).
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.079pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Summer Of Football have a bet tonight in the Brazilian second division (never thought I'd see the day when I was playing in that league!) but as it doesn't kick off until 11.30, you're going to have to forgive me if I don't report back on that one until tomorrow.
Make the most of the evening sun. Looking at the forecast, it could be the last we have for a while. Probably until next summer in fact.
Right, I think I need to make one thing very clear after yesterday's post. I am NOT thinking of jacking my job in to go full time punting. As things stand at the moment, even if I wanted to I couldn't, for reasons that will become apparent later in this post.
What prompted me to blog on the subject of going pro' was a comment I made last week about putting myself in the position where I could if I chose to. Getting myself into a position where I have the choice is going to take time. It will mean a) making profits; that b) can be ploughed straight back into the betting operation. 'B' could be tricky, as the income generated by my betting does come in more than handy with coping with the costs of everyday life.
The point I was really trying to make yesterday was that with job security becoming something to be enjoyed only by a privileged few, taking the risk of jumping into full time betting may not be the leap it once was. The risk part of the risk:reward ratio aligned to such a move has and is decreasing. People giving up a salaried job are perhaps not giving up as much as they once were, for not only are there decreasing levels of job security, but the ability to save adequately for retirement - even if salaried - is becoming more and more compromised.
Having said all that, there surely remains a huge psychological gap to jump if giving up the monthly pay cheque in favour of relying on the outcome of football matches and the ability of certain horses to run fast for one's financial wellbeing. I would also suggest that if we are to go betting full time to allow more time to be spent with the kids, etc., then spending all waking hours stressing about bets and losing runs might just take the edge off it all! There'd be no point in changing lifestyle if you still couldn't enjoy it, would there?
If we analyse the sources of stress when gambling, what do we find? Is it possible to identify specific sources of gambling-related stress and then do something about them to facilitate a life of gambling largely (but not entirely, I'm sure) devoid of the causes of stomach ulcers and tension headaches?
Possibly, is my answer. To my mind, and I speak entirely subjectively here, if you have a number of services that you have faith in, and you have a bankroll of sufficient size, plus funds in the bank that you can call on to act as a buffer to the inevitable losing spells to draw upon to maintain your standard of living for a decent period of time (perhaps two years?), then the stress would possibly be soothed. I can't imagine it would disappear entirely, but rather hang around, lurking just beneath the surface, ready to cause havoc given half a chance.
I'd wager (heh!) that the most common cause of gambling-stress is trying to achieve too much with too little funding. A betting bank of insufficient size or over-leveraging, perhaps. If I were going full time, I would forget about leveraging. I leverage my betting funds at the moment. But were I gambling for a living, the sense of security I would get from not leveraging at all would probably provide a rather snug comfort blanket. It would make little financial sense and would mean that looking at things entirely objectively, some funds were being under-utilised, but what I might lose from not maximising the impact/power my betting bank might hold would be countered by the psychological benefits. Possibly as confidence grew from making a success out of things, then an element of leveraging could be introduced. But as the biggest part of the battle, initially at least, is a psychological one, would this not make sense?
So, there's my solution, and therefore ultimate aim...to win enough to get to the point where there are a couple of year's living expenses in the bank and separate betting funds sufficient to not feel obliged to apply leverage. Getting to that point might be dependant to an extent upon profit-making, but let's not forget that I was talking about changing lifestyle. I guess people in my situation could gain a significant, if not the total sum of necessary funds from the process of "downsizing" that would be an inevitable (and desirable) part of the whole process.
I know from experience what it is like setting up a new business. Although the company I work for is not my company (err, obviously), I was one of two members present in the office on Day 1, the other being the owner. I was 24, had just six months' experience gained at a "big" company, had just taken out my first mortgage two months' previously, and my wife (girlfriend as she was then) had just quit her deadend job to start upon a "proper" career role. It was high pressure, but it was an opportunity. Would changing to gambling for a living, with funds behind you that were sizeable if not bottomless, really involve more pressure than that scenario sixteen years ago? Does it provide a real opportunity? Of course, all these questions are rhetorical, as I've not done it. There may be a few readers who have made the jump who are laughing their socks off reading this "shit", thinking I don't have a clue. And who would I be to argue with them?
I'm aware that what I'm writing here is only from my own personal viewpoint. Others may have bigger concerns and sources of psychological pressure when it comes to gambling. The point remains though - can these sources of pressure be dealt with sufficiently to make professional betting a realistic career-option, and one that is no more stressful (when we think about it) than the sort of salaried position that most endure?
Tomorrow, the practicalities.
Today's Betting
Not much by way of returns today. The Sportsman Racing had an each way selection come in second (Raleigh Quay - Ripon - 100/30 and 7/2) for a small loss. No success today for Winning Racing Tips (0/1) or The Market Examiner (0/3).
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.3pts, -0.3pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.079pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
Summer Of Football have a bet tonight in the Brazilian second division (never thought I'd see the day when I was playing in that league!) but as it doesn't kick off until 11.30, you're going to have to forgive me if I don't report back on that one until tomorrow.
Make the most of the evening sun. Looking at the forecast, it could be the last we have for a while. Probably until next summer in fact.
Monday, 28 May 2012
Deep and meaningful.
My oldest and closest friend and I were having a long chat on Saturday. As two 40 year olds, each with young children and each in a job they've been doing for fifteen years, the conversation was always likely to turn all deep and meaningful as some sort of explanation (justification?) was sought for the lives we lead.
Modern life is quite tough really, isn't it? Job security is largely a thing of the past. Gone are the days that a university education almost guaranteed a natural entry into a profession, within which would lie a career path that could be mapped out with a fair amount of accuracy from the off. Retirement would be reached forty years later as the individual hit sixty, and it would be a comfortable one, eked out of the years of national insurance contributions allied to the extra put away into personal savings of some form or other.
I get to my place of work at 8.00 am. I leave it at 5.30-6.00. Not the longest of working days really, and certainly 15 years ago when I was a bright eyed, bushy tailed go-getter (*cough*) I was doing longer hours. But that said, that's a heck of a large proportion of my life spent working. And for what? Well, it pays the mortgage, and my children's school fees, and a week away each year (before school fees, that would be three weeks - the sacrifices we make!). What it doesn't do is guarantee a decent, comfortable old age free of financial concerns. I put away what I would guess is more than the average into my pension each month, but the annual statement makes for depressing reading. The likelihood is that I will be lucky if I can retire at 60, and if I can, my annuity will not be that impressive.
The daily commute is one that I have done every working day since 1996. I sit amongst fellow commuters at the traffic lights, and looking at my fellow drivers, rarely see a happy face behind the wheel.
I'm an expert at what I do, and on the face of it, am relatively well paid. I get on very well with my six colleagues, all of which I have known for a minimum ten years. We have a laugh. It could be worse.
But it could be better, too. I spend a lot of time stressing over the future of the small company for which I work, which is undoubtedly suffering from the effects of the recession and has done since 2008. I worry about beng able to provide for my family, the stress that my wife comes under doing a job she really doesn't enjoy.
In my line of work I often see honest, hard working folk in their fifties who have worked for established, big corporate companies for twenty years or so, before being forced into redundancy. They then find it impossible to get back into work because they are seen as not having as much to offer, and are more expensive to employ, than the younger, up and comers that they are competing with in the job market.
Does all this sound familiar? I'm sure it does to many - I think I'm typical of millions of working people. It's life. But - and here's the thing - I can't help thinking that I could well get to 70 years of age, look back, and think, "What the hell was I doing?". Why am I doing the same thing every day, just to keep the lifestyle that is easy to grow comfortable with, but comfortable only in the sense that it's "safe". What example was I setting to my kids, who went the traditional route and now find themselves trapped in a job they may not enjoy doing with a mortgage to pay and bills to meet? Was it worth the stress?
Well it is, if there is no viable alternative. Of course, finding an alternative is the thing a lot easier said than done. Now, this being a gambling blog, I'm sure you can guess the next question...is gambling a realistic option?
Up until fairly recently, I would have said not. Now, I'm not so sure. The biggest obstacle most people put up to the idea of gambling for a living is that the sheer insecurity of it all renders it a daft option for someone in a full time, "proper" job. Really? In this day and age of mass redundancy? In these times where lots of companies, both large and small, are looking to take as many measures as possible to minimise costs (despite many of them, especially the bigger corporates, sitting on massive cash reserves).
I don't accept the "you can't gamble for a living because it is too inherently risky" argument any more. No pun intended, but to my mind, that is a redundant argument. There is very little/no security in this day and age. For some, yes, they may be fortunate to be entitled to feel pretty secure in their place of work. For many though, such a position would be a luxury.
I'm hoping to dig deeper into this subject throughout the week, at the end of which I'm buggering off on holiday for a few days. All this isn't leading up to an announcement that I'm quitting the day job and am punting full time. I'm not. But what I do want to do is set out the arguments for and against, see how preparation and adequate setting up of funds might make it a more viable option; how income generated would need to provide for the future, and not just for the here and now, and how that could be achieved; and what differences would gambling full time make fundamentally to lifestyle, for better and worse?
This may be a shot in the dark, but I know there are a couple of blog readers who have gone "professional". I would love the input of people who have done so and would be prepared to say why they did, what difficulties they've had to overcome, how they've adjusted and ultimately if they feel it was worth doing. It would make fascinating reading. If someone would like to contribute but not "formally" to be published verbatim on the blog, they could always leave a comment which I won't publish, asking for my email address. I've no issue in putting things into my own words based on what they email to me.
Perhaps no-one will respond to this invitation, which is fair enough. Would be great if they did though. :)
Today's Betting
A good day for The Market Examiner, making just one selection which won at a very nice price Act Your Shoe Size - Windsor - 7/1. No such luck for Northern Monkey (0/1), or Winning Racing Tips (0/1).
Two bets from Summer of Football, one of which returned half the stake.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, -0.4pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +7pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 2pts, -1.75pts.
Modern life is quite tough really, isn't it? Job security is largely a thing of the past. Gone are the days that a university education almost guaranteed a natural entry into a profession, within which would lie a career path that could be mapped out with a fair amount of accuracy from the off. Retirement would be reached forty years later as the individual hit sixty, and it would be a comfortable one, eked out of the years of national insurance contributions allied to the extra put away into personal savings of some form or other.
I get to my place of work at 8.00 am. I leave it at 5.30-6.00. Not the longest of working days really, and certainly 15 years ago when I was a bright eyed, bushy tailed go-getter (*cough*) I was doing longer hours. But that said, that's a heck of a large proportion of my life spent working. And for what? Well, it pays the mortgage, and my children's school fees, and a week away each year (before school fees, that would be three weeks - the sacrifices we make!). What it doesn't do is guarantee a decent, comfortable old age free of financial concerns. I put away what I would guess is more than the average into my pension each month, but the annual statement makes for depressing reading. The likelihood is that I will be lucky if I can retire at 60, and if I can, my annuity will not be that impressive.
The daily commute is one that I have done every working day since 1996. I sit amongst fellow commuters at the traffic lights, and looking at my fellow drivers, rarely see a happy face behind the wheel.
I'm an expert at what I do, and on the face of it, am relatively well paid. I get on very well with my six colleagues, all of which I have known for a minimum ten years. We have a laugh. It could be worse.
But it could be better, too. I spend a lot of time stressing over the future of the small company for which I work, which is undoubtedly suffering from the effects of the recession and has done since 2008. I worry about beng able to provide for my family, the stress that my wife comes under doing a job she really doesn't enjoy.
In my line of work I often see honest, hard working folk in their fifties who have worked for established, big corporate companies for twenty years or so, before being forced into redundancy. They then find it impossible to get back into work because they are seen as not having as much to offer, and are more expensive to employ, than the younger, up and comers that they are competing with in the job market.
Does all this sound familiar? I'm sure it does to many - I think I'm typical of millions of working people. It's life. But - and here's the thing - I can't help thinking that I could well get to 70 years of age, look back, and think, "What the hell was I doing?". Why am I doing the same thing every day, just to keep the lifestyle that is easy to grow comfortable with, but comfortable only in the sense that it's "safe". What example was I setting to my kids, who went the traditional route and now find themselves trapped in a job they may not enjoy doing with a mortgage to pay and bills to meet? Was it worth the stress?
Well it is, if there is no viable alternative. Of course, finding an alternative is the thing a lot easier said than done. Now, this being a gambling blog, I'm sure you can guess the next question...is gambling a realistic option?
Up until fairly recently, I would have said not. Now, I'm not so sure. The biggest obstacle most people put up to the idea of gambling for a living is that the sheer insecurity of it all renders it a daft option for someone in a full time, "proper" job. Really? In this day and age of mass redundancy? In these times where lots of companies, both large and small, are looking to take as many measures as possible to minimise costs (despite many of them, especially the bigger corporates, sitting on massive cash reserves).
I don't accept the "you can't gamble for a living because it is too inherently risky" argument any more. No pun intended, but to my mind, that is a redundant argument. There is very little/no security in this day and age. For some, yes, they may be fortunate to be entitled to feel pretty secure in their place of work. For many though, such a position would be a luxury.
I'm hoping to dig deeper into this subject throughout the week, at the end of which I'm buggering off on holiday for a few days. All this isn't leading up to an announcement that I'm quitting the day job and am punting full time. I'm not. But what I do want to do is set out the arguments for and against, see how preparation and adequate setting up of funds might make it a more viable option; how income generated would need to provide for the future, and not just for the here and now, and how that could be achieved; and what differences would gambling full time make fundamentally to lifestyle, for better and worse?
This may be a shot in the dark, but I know there are a couple of blog readers who have gone "professional". I would love the input of people who have done so and would be prepared to say why they did, what difficulties they've had to overcome, how they've adjusted and ultimately if they feel it was worth doing. It would make fascinating reading. If someone would like to contribute but not "formally" to be published verbatim on the blog, they could always leave a comment which I won't publish, asking for my email address. I've no issue in putting things into my own words based on what they email to me.
Perhaps no-one will respond to this invitation, which is fair enough. Would be great if they did though. :)
Today's Betting
A good day for The Market Examiner, making just one selection which won at a very nice price Act Your Shoe Size - Windsor - 7/1. No such luck for Northern Monkey (0/1), or Winning Racing Tips (0/1).
Two bets from Summer of Football, one of which returned half the stake.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.4pts, -0.4pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, +7pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 2pts, -1.75pts.
Sunday, 27 May 2012
Sunday's Results
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Summer of Football: Staked 3pts, +0.88pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Summer of Football: Staked 3pts, +0.88pts.
Saturday, 26 May 2012
Saturday's Results
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -1.25pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.3pts, +1.866pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -1.25pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.3pts, +1.866pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Friday, 25 May 2012
Staying within the Elite of Football betting services.
Reading the recently released SBC end of football season review this week, it was noticeable that Matt of Football Elite described his season as having been a solid one, rather than spectacular. I know what he means, but really, when you take a step back and look dispassionately at 2011/12 now - which is easier to do now it is finished - I think he's actually understating his performance somewhat.
To my mind, a nigh on 15% roi is pretty spectacular over any season's football betting activity. Just think about it for a second. 15%. That's pretty darned decent, isn't it? Anything above 10% is not too shabby in my book, so for 15% to be "solid"...well, it's the kind of solidity I like!
There is no doubt that FE's final figures owed much to the success of the antepost bets struck before the season started, but I've heard some make reference to this in terms that although not critical, do seem to be a little disparaging. An attitude that, yeah, 15% ain't bad, but you know if it weren't for those antepost bets....
I don't get that. Were those bets not struck? Did Matt not advise them as official selections? Historically, FE's antepost bets have performed strongly and they are both a valuable and integral part of the FE package. To look upon those bets as anything other than this is plainly wrong. If all Matt's match bets throughout a season simply broke even (which wasn't the case, by the way - they constituted around half of the total profit made), but then his antepost bets made significant profit (ie. provided an overall roi of 15%), then so what? In the final reckoning, I've made 15% roi. End of.
Having said all of this, I know what Matt means by "solid". In fact, around January/February time the season felt anything but solid, as performance wasn't exactly exhilerating and this was coming off the back of what had undoubtedly been a disappointing 2010/11 season. Being completely honest, I did pause momentarily when it came to renewing my subs around early spring time. But then a bit of experience kicked in. And thank the Lord Bergkamp it did, for the remaining months of the season saw a return to the form that FE built it's reputation on. A couple of years ago I don't think I'd have renewed. If ever there was an example of the benefits of experience, there it was.
Looking back now, I realise that Football Elite as an individual entity is, by it's nature, extremely vulnerable to the ravages of variance. With around 100 bets per season, there simply isn't enough churn to get variance out of the system, as it were. This is always a risk for low turnover services, and FE is no exception. What we have in FE though is a service that has been profitable for each of the six seasons it's been in existence, returning an overall roi around 16%. That is a very defined edge that Matt has demonstrated, and has demonstrated it within markets that many believe are the most efficiently priced by the bookmakers, the top European leagues.
So where are we with FE? A long-running, successful service, run by a seasoned pro with a sound methodology, making selections in markets which are easy to get big money into.
That'll do for me.
Today's Betting
Northern Monkey got one placed from two. No luck for The Market Examiner (0/2).
And that was it.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -0.712pts.
Just to say, as usual I won't be posting much up over the weekend. But, what I will do is put the stats for each day's betting. Call me a lazy sod, but I don't enjoy collating each service's weekend performance on the Monday. All gets a bit messy.
Have a great weekend. Time to dust off the barbies.
To my mind, a nigh on 15% roi is pretty spectacular over any season's football betting activity. Just think about it for a second. 15%. That's pretty darned decent, isn't it? Anything above 10% is not too shabby in my book, so for 15% to be "solid"...well, it's the kind of solidity I like!
There is no doubt that FE's final figures owed much to the success of the antepost bets struck before the season started, but I've heard some make reference to this in terms that although not critical, do seem to be a little disparaging. An attitude that, yeah, 15% ain't bad, but you know if it weren't for those antepost bets....
I don't get that. Were those bets not struck? Did Matt not advise them as official selections? Historically, FE's antepost bets have performed strongly and they are both a valuable and integral part of the FE package. To look upon those bets as anything other than this is plainly wrong. If all Matt's match bets throughout a season simply broke even (which wasn't the case, by the way - they constituted around half of the total profit made), but then his antepost bets made significant profit (ie. provided an overall roi of 15%), then so what? In the final reckoning, I've made 15% roi. End of.
Having said all of this, I know what Matt means by "solid". In fact, around January/February time the season felt anything but solid, as performance wasn't exactly exhilerating and this was coming off the back of what had undoubtedly been a disappointing 2010/11 season. Being completely honest, I did pause momentarily when it came to renewing my subs around early spring time. But then a bit of experience kicked in. And thank the Lord Bergkamp it did, for the remaining months of the season saw a return to the form that FE built it's reputation on. A couple of years ago I don't think I'd have renewed. If ever there was an example of the benefits of experience, there it was.
Looking back now, I realise that Football Elite as an individual entity is, by it's nature, extremely vulnerable to the ravages of variance. With around 100 bets per season, there simply isn't enough churn to get variance out of the system, as it were. This is always a risk for low turnover services, and FE is no exception. What we have in FE though is a service that has been profitable for each of the six seasons it's been in existence, returning an overall roi around 16%. That is a very defined edge that Matt has demonstrated, and has demonstrated it within markets that many believe are the most efficiently priced by the bookmakers, the top European leagues.
So where are we with FE? A long-running, successful service, run by a seasoned pro with a sound methodology, making selections in markets which are easy to get big money into.
That'll do for me.
Today's Betting
Northern Monkey got one placed from two. No luck for The Market Examiner (0/2).
And that was it.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -0.712pts.
Just to say, as usual I won't be posting much up over the weekend. But, what I will do is put the stats for each day's betting. Call me a lazy sod, but I don't enjoy collating each service's weekend performance on the Monday. All gets a bit messy.
Have a great weekend. Time to dust off the barbies.
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