Monday, 11 January 2016

Taking a price.

Well thank goodness the "romance" and "magic" and "tradition" of FA Cup 3rd round weekend is over for another year. Honestly, I'm beginning to view the third round of the FA Cup with the same jaundiced eye and level of cynicism as I do Black Friday.

FA Cup "romance" = full strength teams, Saturday 3.00 kick offs, being glued to the radio as they flit from commentary to commentary to chase the potential shocks, endless replays played on increasingly muddy pitches, and John Motson/Barry Davies commentating on MoTD.

FA Cup "magic" or "tradition" does NOT include making supporters travel 250 miles on a Friday night with no way of getting home by public transport, 6.00pm Sunday kick offs, pink balls (see last year), a Cup Final starting at 5.30, Championship teams resting players, or a variety of broadcasters buggering things up for their own benefit and then foisting Robbie Savage and Michael Owen on us all.

And the sooner they just let the crowd sing Abide With Me and the national anthem at Wembley and dump the screeching bird in a ball gown who looks like she's about to lay an egg, the better!

*Deep breath*

Right, how's everyone's punting been? For me, 2016 has so far limped along with no discernible progress made or regress suffered. But I have stuck so far to my New Year's betting resolution, which is to refuse to chase prices and ensure that every bet I place, has value.

To be fair to myself, I've long since given up chasing a price right down well below the line where any sane bettor would stop and lose interest. I reckon doing this, for fear of missing winners, is one of the most common mistakes new bettors make. The mentality I had when I started out was that having a 5/1 winner was better than nothing, never mind the fact that the tipster I was following had perhaps advised the bet at 10/1 and probably saw some value down to about 8/1.

Even now, it stings when I don't strike a bet on a horse because I can't get a price, only to see the nag waltz home barely breaking sweat. In an attempt to ease this particular pain I started to note how much I saved by refusing to back horses at odds significantly below those advised, which then went on to lose. I'm telling you, the amount soon adds up. Try it. It will help put things into perspective when you miss out on a winner.

You do need to exercise some common sense of course. If I can only get 18/1 on a horse advised at 25s, I'll take it. Why? Because mentally I know that missing out on what would, after all, still be an excellent winner would be very hard to take. Besides, these circumstances arise very rarely. I'm not tipped many horses at 25/1 and so although I accept that the same principle of value applies when they are, I also acknowledge how important it is to maintain a level of mental equilibrium if you hope to succeed at this game. If there's one thing that's going to make me go off on one is missing an 18/1 winner because I had drawn the line at 20s. I am however, quite comfortable now missing a 6/1 winner on a horse tipped at say, 9s.

So where do you draw the line, because draw one you must...? Answers on a postcard.

Betting for January to date
I thought I'd post results this way, instead of a day to day update, which quite frankly, can be a little dull.

Even The Odds: Staked 50pts, -1.684pts (missed a couple of winners due to above...and a few losers too!)
Northern Monkey: Staked 7pts, -1.961pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 24pts, -8.495pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 9pts, +2.59pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 27pts, +8.91pts.
Soyloco: n/a (*I don’t back the 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, if anyone’s wondering)
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.

So slow going, the ROI for the year standing at a weak and feeble 0.7%.

To be honest, it's been pretty quiet on the racing front, with the wet weather meaning that The Value Bettor only supplied bets on Friday and Saturday of last week. Having taken a break through the first days of the month in order to recharge his batteries in preparation for the second half the season, this means that there has been very little TVB action so far in 2016.

Soyloco has been spitting out 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, which frankly, I have just ignored. The prices disappear and for many of the bets you need a 188bet account. I do, but not a viable one anymore alas.

Every morning last week it seemed that I would check the overnight PCG (NHL) results to a little 'Yay', and then check the NBA results to a little *sigh*. Talk about giving with one hand and taking with the other. The NFL keeps churning out the profit though, although going 2-1 through the Wild Card weekend was hardly a spectacular performance. But who needs spectacular?

So, could have taken the last ten days or so off. Doesn't work like that though, does it?

Back later in the week.

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