Monday, 4 January 2016

Sod's Law!

A bit later than I intended as I'd noticed today just how disgustingly grimy, sticky and unhygienic my laptop keyboard had become. Seriously, I bet there were organisms living down there between the keys that no scientist on God's green planet would be able to identify. So I took a wet wipe to it, managed to open Geek's Toy about 100 times whilst I scrubbed away (I really couldn't be bothered logging off first), created a new play list on Spotify, and sent photos of a holiday cottage in Devon to goodness knows where, all in the act of cleaning. Still, at least I can see the letters on the keys now, so all's good.

So where were we?

I think I was going to write a post about the services I'm following, wasn't I?

Ok, here's a list:

Racing: Northern Monkey (Flat), The Value Bettor (Jumps), Even The Odds (all codes)*.
Sports: The Fink Tank (UK footie), Soyloco (South American footie), Procomputergambler (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF).

I guess the first thing to say is that there's a lot less racing input into the portfolio than there has been in previous years. There's one reason for that, and one reason alone...those bastard bookmakers who won't take a bet. Sure, I can get a tenner on at Corals if I really wanted to, and for the hell of it I opened an account with NetBet so there's somewhere I can place the doubles that Northern Monkey often gives out, but basically, I've been through a couple of sets of accounts and at this moment in time, have decided against opening another. Instead, I've concentrated on trying to make Betfair pay. Sure, it's never going to be as lucrative as using the bookies and taking advantage of the BOG concessions, but it's still possible to make a decent enough profit. It just takes a little effort and a slightly different mindset, which is something that I will definitely blog about in some detail soon.

The asterisk by Even The Odds signifies that this is essentially being used as a proper part of the portfolio for the first time this week. It's a service I dabbled with last year, but in the main just watched and made some observations that I'm hoping will hold me in good stead. Undoubtedly it's inclusion is a risk for reasons I'll go into in my next proper post, but it also holds a great deal of promise too. I'll explain all next time, like I say, but in the meantime suffice to say it's the wild card in the pack.

Of the others, I'm sure they're all familiar to you if you read this blog in the past. I'm long term now with Northern Monkey, The Value Bettor, and Soyloco. As for Procomputergambler, or PCG for short, I use the Raw Numbers to identify my bets and don't follow the official picks.

I think the best thing to do is to devote the next few posts to each of these services, give some thoughts and background info on each and go from there. Tonight I just wanted to set out the portfolio as it stands. There's the slight possibility of another service to stick in there too, but we'll have to see on that one. I don't mean to be mysterious, but I need to talk to the tipster involved and see what he has to say first.

One final point. I know that folk who follow the same tipsters are likely to compare their performance with mine. Just be careful and don't forget that I'm using Betfair for all bets on the nags. If I can't get a price I want, I don't back the tip, so on occasion I'll miss bets, both winners and losers. The same happens with the sports betting too. One thing I've learnt is that backing at prices much shorter than those advised doesn't do the bottom line P&L any good in the long term. If you find your figures are significantly better or worse than mine (in the short term), this will be why.

Weekend's Betting

And so for the first summary of the year. And I've got to say, there was no escaping Sod's Law. After a few months of decent profit, I start blogging again and the first weekend goes t*ts up! Well, perhaps not that bad, but it's not been a great start.

Northern Monkey managed to get his 2016 off to a decent start with a winner on Friday (The Lock Master - Southwell - 3.2/1) but subsequently gave the profit back over the weekend. The Lock Master's win was quite incredible, and is worth looking up on the ATR website to take a peek. It was seriously outpaced for the first three quarters of the race, became so detached it traded at 37/1 on Betfair, before storming up the straight to win easing down. If it's ever tipped again, I might just stick in a cheeky in-running order at a silly price and see what happens.

Nothing from The Value Bettor as he takes a few days off to recharge the batteries, which just left Even The Odds as the other racing service in action. Frankly, I'd preferred it if they'd taken a few days off too, and if it hadn't been for one good winner (Singlefarmpayment - Chelmsford - 7/1) on Friday, the first few days of the New Year would have been ones to forget!

It was typical that having made a profit of over 10 points through December (which amounts to an ROC of 20%), PCG (NBA) got off to a horrid start to January with five losing bets from five since Friday, and the College Football bets tried vainly to keep pace with three losing bets from three! The NFL picks continue in excellent form however, going 4-2 yesterday. It's been a superb NFL Regular season for the NFL Raw Numbers. Fingers crossed that form continues through the Play Off season.

Finally it was a solid start for The Fink Tank which hit 4 winners using the Asian Handicap lines.

Even The Odds: Staked 14pts, -6.264pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -0.471pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 5pts, -5pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 6pts, +1.754pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 7pts, -1.179pts.
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.

I can't be doing with Soyloco's bets in the Sao Paulo Youth Cup. I don't have access to a book that provides the relevant markets, never mind manage to get the odds on these bets before they crash big time. I think you need a 188Bet account. I have one, but play at more than £5/point, so it's a no go for me. Roll on the proper leagues!

I'm pretty busy over the next couple of nights so basic results updates only, and then all things being equal, a meatier post on Thursday.

Until then...

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