Tuesday, 29 March 2011

Correlation #2. Oh, and I'm a pratt!

Right. Not an egg or basket in sight today, or any other stupid idioms. I promise. Bigger fish to fry...

The consequences of double staking

Well, these are as plain as the nose on your face, surely. Aren't they? A double (or more) tipped winner results in a positive spike on the performance graph, a loser a negative spike. In other words, short term performance is quite radically affected, for better or for worse. As a gambler using a portfolio, all you can do is put up with it when this situation arises and accept the situation for what it is. Yes, it's a pain in the neck when the outcome of just one or two matches dictates the levels of success or otherwise on a busy Saturday. But one point worth remembering is that if more than one tipster has identified the same value selection, then logically you should have more confidence in that selection. Different sources of expertise have reached the same conclusions and that should say something.

This is all well and good for the punter with the established portfolio of a decent number of services. But what of someone in Mark's situation...someone who is in the process of building a portfolio? Can they not put the foundations in place that will allow for a fully diversified portfolio to be constructed free of correlation, or at least with a minimum amount that can more easily be dealt with? Of course. It just takes a bit of planning.


Think ahead. Don't get caught up in the hype of a service that is blasting it's way onto the scene with results that are stupendously good. Think for a while about the nature of the service and it's selections. Will it fill an as yet unoccupied niche in your portfolio. or will it simply be sitting a bit too close for comfort, invading the personal space of services you already follow? In Mark's case, the level of correlation between his own selections and Jerry's should be easily manageable, but my advice to Mark would be to pick his next service to follow, and the ones after that, very carefully. We don't want a situation where we follow four services, three of which are targeting the same type of selection or are using similar methodologies.

My final point on this subject is that I do firmly believe that as the portfolio becomes larger, then a level of correlation has to be accepted as being part and parcel of the game. However, it becomes less of an issue, as the number of non-correlating bets increases and should therefore dilute the affect of selections that are multi-tipped.

So Mark, to answer your initial question...set up your banks properly, accept the fact that on occasion your selection criteria could well highlight the same horse as Jerry's Best Bets, stake according to your plan for each service, and choose your next tipster to follow carefully. Good planning will ensure that you don't put all your eggs in one fire. Or irons in one basket.

Today's Action

I have to go on a course tomorrow for work. All day. I don't know what will happen at lunchtime, my usual window for placing bets. Perhaps the window will be shut. And locked.

So, I have been praying for a quiet day. A day in which if it wasn't possible to get my bets on, I wouldn't miss out on too much. And you know what? The gambling Gods have obviously been listening. There is a problem though. It would seem that the gambling God assigned to me, has got his days mixed up. Just three bets today. Oh, and two Strike Zone bets which I have just realised I haven't placed! My excuse? I'm a Grade A pratt!

Chasemaster really are hitting their straps now. One selection today, the outsider in a four horse marathon (Cold Mountain - Taunton - 9/2). It stormed home.

ProBandit maintained their recent high levels of consistency, their one each way selection finishing in the frame (Crown Ridge - Lingfield - 8/1).

The only loser today was a very small bet from Northern Monkey.

Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, +1.125pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, +0.25pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Total financial profit on the horses of £72.50.

Tuesday 29th March: Staked £40, +£72.50.
Week to date: Staked £190, +£142.50.
Month to date: Staked £13,785, +£1,034.50, roi 7.5%.

And the Strike Zone bets? One winner, one loser. At the short odds on each selection, my incompetence has saved me a little loss. And I believe yesterday's Football Investor bet I missed was a loser too. Pratt, did I hear? Bloody genius more like!

Right. I'm off to place tomorrow's The Football Analyst bet. Before I forget...


  1. hi just looking for a bit of advice i am with chasemaster and pro bandit.I stakr 60 per point but because of the way the stake eg half point quarter point i am left with the feeling i am understaking and am wondering should i up my stake to allow for their system of staking.

  2. How to Make Money with Sports Betting?
    Easy, follow my progression.

  3. Anon,

    I answered a similar question a couple of days ago re ProBandit. You'll find it in the 'Comments' section.

    I'll find out which day it was on and post it up tonight.


  4. Hi Rowan

    Once again thanks for your timely advice. I by nature am now very cautious with regards to the staking I employ so If Roy and myself pick the same selection it should not have such a dramatic effect on my bank.

    I totally understand what you are saying about planning carefully what services to follow so as to avoid to much correlation and I suppose I may be not quite doing as much as I could with regards to that issue.

    What I mean is that I had planned to add tipsters per sport so I would add the horse racing tipsters first, then other sports after that. My reason for concentrating on the racing tipsters first is that I believe horse racing is my area of expertise (even though some would disagree LOL) and I would feel more comfortable with a few solid racing tipsters in the portfolio before adding tipsters from sports that I know little about, if you know what I mean.

    The one downside that I can see with my approach is that because at first all of my tipsters will be from racing there will obviously be a bigger chance of more correlation.

    So this is leading me up to another question.(I did warn you that you did not know what you were letting yourself in for by agreeing to help me ;-) )
    My next question is: what level of knowledge do you have to have about a sport before adding a tipster from that sport to your portfolio?

    I know the questions are stacking up but I have to ask them as I think of them or I will forget them completely (it's called old age you know)

    Anyway thanks again

  5. Hi Mark

    I'm sure Rowan will have a place in his blog schedule (which is filling up pretty nicely now) to answer this question.

    I feel this is down to an each individuals comfort levels again.

    To me, as long as i know what the area/sport is and the basic nature of the sport, it doesn't bother me how much or little i know about the area/sport.

    The reason for this is because the tipster has to have a proven record for providing profitable tips. To me it is an investment at the end of the day and not an interest. If it was purely for interest i would treat it as a hobby (which i don't).

    Some people though, may only be comfortable staking on sports that they know about. I knew nothing of darts players last year, but i know the sport (if you can call it that) and the basics of it, yet i subscribed to a well thought of and proven tipster because it had great potential to make me money.

    To me, if its a well run tipster service and shows good results over the long term i am happy to subscribe. Some may not though and that is a personal choice.

    Hope this helps in some way.


  6. Hi Andy,

    Couldn't have put it all better myself. To talk in cliches, I think we're singing from the same hymn sheet.

    I think the comment will need a wider airing next week, if you know what I mean...