Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Football. Bloody Hell!

I wasn't planning on writing too much today, but I thought the comment left by Andy that expands a little on the topic yesterday of finding the balance between protecting banks and maximising profits deserved a wider airing.

"Having a double bank of the worst losing run is an excellent way of protecting your bank from a worst case scenario. What i want to mention is how much risk-potential profit.

The SBC had an article a while ago about compounding stakes. This is increasing/decreasing stakes in accordance with your bank going up/down. For example your start with £1000 and 100pt bank. A 1pt bet would be £10. So say you bet a horse to win at 5/1 and your bank increases to £1050. Your next 1pt stake would be £10.50.

This is a great strategy to increase your winnings but also makes you more susceptible to losing greater amounts on a losing run.

My personal method is to compound every time my bank takes a new high. You may wander if this too risky? I don't think so, because i already have my safety barrier in doubling the worst losing run. Another losing run of greater effect could happen but a minimal chance at that.

It does all depend on the odds the tipster averages at. A service that produces tips mainly around evens will have shorter losing runs and a more accurate idea of those runs, whereas a golf tipster who averages 50/1 shots can have a very different set of losing runs and could take many years to figure out what a very worst run could look like.

I hope this all makes sense and my personal view has come across. As long as i have a suitable safety barrier, i don't need any more. I would say i was a medium risk sports bettor. I think by being low risk i would miss out on too much opportunity. My view may well change in a few years when i have a lot more capital to work with"

On a personal level, I've never been a fan of compounding. This is purely down to my own approach and mentality though, and I appreciate that with the right service, it can be a very good way to accumulate profit to provide a larger bank with which to go to war. I know that Sportyy advocates such an approach which fits well with their style, ie. high strike rate.

I thought that an excellent insight though, and well worth sharing. Andy's comment was alright too (heh).

Today's Action

The start to April can now be accurately labelled as catastrophic. And it's all down to the football betting. The results over the weekend and tonight have been awful to say the least. Of course with football betting, the results can go from one extreme to the other in the blink of an eye. I'm currently blinking fast and hard.

On the racing front, a small profit accrued today. ProBandit unearthed a nice winner (Mohanad - Kempton - 15/2), Northern Monkey, PJA NH, and Winning Racing Tips each managed to get their sole selections placed. On The Nose didn't produce a return from their one bet.

ProBandit: Staked 1pt, +1.75pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, +0.025pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.266pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.6pts, -0.16pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Financial profit on the racing of £35.58.

How the hell did Schalke win 5-2 away to Inter Milan!?! I know Italian football is dire at present but still. Trouble is, win bets on Internazionale were put up by both The Sportsman and Sportyy. Strike Zone were looking good for two short priced winners until Kettering got an injury time equaliser at Luton. The one bet from Football Investor was a loser. It should be mentioned that Sportyy have tipped a double on the tennis, the first selection winning but the second not starting his match until a scheduled time of 1.15 in the morning. If it's all the same to you, I won't stay up but instead will put it into tomorrow's results.

Football Investor: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, -0.25pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, -0.15pts.
Sportyy: Staked £60, -£60.
Total financial loss on sports of £160.

Tuesday 5th April: Staked £416, -£124.42.
Week to date: Staked £596, -£198.49.
Month to date: Staked £3,219, -£1,003.41, roi -31.17%.

The only bright spot today? Shan't say. There's probably a couple of Spurs fans reading...


  1. "If it's all the same to you, I won't stay up but instead will put it into tomorrow's results."

    I hate to be difficult, but I really would prefer you to wait up and update the results sooner. Thanks. :)

  2. sad that english people can take pleasure out of a spurs defeat
    you should be ashamed of yourself

  3. Sorry, Cassini, Sir.

    Will try to do better Cassini, Sir.

    Tennis chap, lost, Sir. Which if you don't mind me saying is bloody typical, Sir.


  4. Anon.

    Three things...

    1. Get a grip.

    2. If you don't take the mickey (gently) out of friends who support rival teams then you know nothing about football; and

    3. How do you know I'm English?

    Congratulatons on being the first idiotic post on this blog.

  5. PMSL
    Hey Rowan, i agree with Cassini!!
    Get your bloody finger out man!
    and another thing..... Arsenal are crap

    Haha now you know how those poor tipsters feel mate Eh

  6. Sadly, since beating Barcelona, I have to agree, Alan. :(