Tuesday, 12 April 2011

March football review.

Are things better late than never? Not sure, but regardless, here is the rundown of the football/sports services' performance for March...

Football Elite: Staked 15pts, -6.345pts, roi -42.3% (2011: staked 48pts, -10.626pts, roi -22.13%). March can only be described as dreadful for Football Elite and it has been a very tough start to 2011 for Matt. Hand on heart though, I still haven't lost any faith in the service. Reading through the rationale behind each selection, I can't help thinking that Matt is staying true to his methods. I cannot detect any signs of wavering from the approach that has made his service such a success in previous seasons. The SBC wrote an interesting article on variance in their last newsletter, utilising a tool produced by Smartersig to analyse patterns of performance that might be expected at a certain strike rate. Reading this, and reading Matt's weekly analysis, I am currently happy to attribute recent poor performance to nothing more sinister than it just being a bad spell that every tipster can expect to endure from time to time. You may well ask why my attitude to Football Elite is different to the one I described yesterday about PJA NH. That is a subject for another post and to be honest, I need to ask myself that question before writing a considered answer.

Strike Zone: Staked 19pts, +5.097pts, roi 26.82% (2011: Staked 81pts, +8.747pts, roi 10.79%). A very decent month indeed for Strike Zone which maintained a fabulously high strike rate (14 wins from 19 bets) and produced a very healthy roi which dragged the roi for 2011 up above the 10% mark. When this works, it suits my gambling psychology down to the ground. No losing runs, small but steady profit accumulation...perfect! It still hasn't threatened to approach the 20%+ roi levels that it has in past seasons but if asked to accept a 10% return from each football service I used every season, I would certainly accept.

Football Investor: Staked 59pts, +5.99pts, roi 10.15% (2011: staked 209pts, -0.165pts, roi -0.07%). A very acceptable month from Football Investor. Not much more to say than that, really. Keep up a 10% roi until the end of the season and I'll be very happy.

Skeeve: Staked 80pts, +36.702pts, roi 45.87% (2011: staked 279pts, +73.847pts, roi 26.46%). What a superb month for the non-league expert, and indeed what a superb 2011 so far. When a service is firing, I find myself looking forward to the email, eager to place the bets. I feel as if I have the upper hand on the bookmakers; a feeling that I know something they don't. This month Skeeve put me into this zone, and a certain frisson added to the end of the working week...6.30 on a Friday sees me sitting in the study (box room) at the PC, the only sound the gentle, rhythmic ticking of the clock on the wall. My fingers are poised over the keyboard, ready to pounce. Then, BANG! In comes the email, the bookmaker is lined up in my sights, and the trigger pulled. 24 hours later, the rewards are mine and the bookies are reeling. Shame it can't always be like this.

The Sportsman: Staked 1.838pts, +1.117pts, roi 60.77% (2011: staked 5.198pts, +1.649pts, roi 31.72%). After a very quiet first part of the season the New Year has seen The Sportsman begin to fire. Peddlar's Cross antepost for the Champion Hurdle at 20s was inspired, as was the decsion to lay off in running to guarantee a very nice profit. Like Strike Zone, the high strike rate natural to this service suits me to a tee. The big issue in March was my raising of stakes and those with an elephantine memory will remember my concern about my ability to get the relevant stakes on some of the bets, something that I would need to be able to do if I was to continue with The Sportsman next season. Happily, I have encountered no problems so far in this respect at these elevated levels of staking, and so I am looking forward to a long and fruitful relationship with main man Scott.

The Football Analyst: Staked 11pts, +2.618pts, roi 23.8% (not putting 2011 totals here as my own personal strategy has changed and I didn't settle on a definite way forward until the beginning of March). For much of March, it felt like TFA was simply ticking along. Perhaps it was a hangover from the turmoil of a testing February but if a service 'ticks' along to produce a near 24% roi on a month, then tick tick away! Graeme is still monitoring and analysing his systems in some quite extraordinary depth as you can see from his blog musings, and he is already turning his mind as to how to ensure that his edge is at least maintained if not improved upon next season. Read his thoughts - fascinating stuff.

So there it is. Of the £1,444 made in March, just over £1,100 was made by the sports services, which runs contrary to the general feeling that the football has been hard going since the turn of the year. Sports Investor hasn't done anything yet to make me regret my decision to drop them from the portfolio. Skeeve is going to find it tough to maintain the pace now that the tricky end of season games are upon us, but it would be nice, before the season is done and dusted, to see Football Elite return to the consistency it enjoyed until very recently.

Today's Action

Pretty quiet today. A very small loss accrued on the nags, the one profitable service of the three in action today being ProBandit who found the winner in the only race played in (Tiradito - Wolverhampton - 5/2). Chasemaster again identified a winner (Kikos - Towcester - 11/4) but wasn't quite able to make a profit. The single On The Nose selection was just run out of a place so no return there.

ProBandit: Staked 1pt, +0.75pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, -0.281pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Total financial loss on the racing of £6.88.

Two Football Investor bets tonight, neither of which were successful.

Football Investor: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Total financial loss on the football of £30.

Tuesday 12th April: Staked £135, -£36.88.
Week to date: Staked £456.50, +£253.18.
Month to date: Staked £6,073.50, -£863.26, roi -14.21%.

Right, pin your ears back. Tomorrow there is a guest contributor, although if I can persuade him, the "guest" status may eventually be replaced with "regular". It's an interesting topic he's chosen to write about and one that affects everybody who gambles even semi-seriously, but I feel it is something that few consider. Well worth a read.

Now, I'm off to think about what I'd do to Nani given a dark night and no witnesses were I (God forbid) a Chelski player.

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