As I've previously mentioned, laying is not an area I have involved myself in up to now, and I decided that it was an area worth exploring only after reading the continually excellent Secret Diary of a Professional Gambler blog. Up until this point, my idea of having a diversified portfolio was to have a breadth of backing services covering different sports, or at least providing different angles/methods within the same sport. Taking the logic of the SDPG blog though, I can see why getting involved in laying can potentially provide a portfolio with real balance. The problem of course, is finding laying services or systems that can provide a long term edge. The impression I have gained in the past from SBC monitored laying services is that plenty start well but then fade as time passes.
And so we come to the Dave Renham inspired Racing Trends. I have been following their lays for the past week or so now, and I thought I'd post a few initial impressions up here. Perhaps those with more experience of laying than I can contribute their thoughts in the 'Comments' section? Like the local church, contributions welcome. :)
The first thing I'd say is that the high strike rate nature of laying appeals, and therefore if it is possible to find services with an edge, I can see myself welcoming them into the portfolio. Suffice to say, I'm going into this feeling fairly positive.
My figures so far are: 33 lays, 23 successful (69.69% strike rate), roi -3.26%.
What is immediately obvious is that I haven't made any real returns as yet, but then nor have I lost anything significant, and I understand that the nature of laying is such that realistically roi is likely to be considerably lower than that of a successful backing service (with sufficient churn though, this shouldn't present a problem). Of course it is far too early to be judging roi levels after just a week of following.
I have had my eyes opened to the possibility of putting in a lot of work to secure positive returns, for just one or two bad results to obliterate the results of the good work that has gone before. One day last week, one horse laid won it's race at an SP of 20/1 and a Betfair SP of 40. Bang - one shot and all returns made from laying the win had been demolished. I don't know how long the disappeared profits had taken to accrue, but I can't imagine it was a mere couple of weeks or so. Had I been working on a fixed stake return/lay the win strategy, I would have been devastated and would undoubtedly have seriously questioned whether or not I would want to carry on. I can imagine that the answer to that question could well have been negative.
Racing Trends did react to this setback. They suggested various strategies and encouraged subscribers to suggest strategies themselves. There was no hiding from what was obviously a horrible result. Certainly it reinforced my own belief in the strategy that I had settled upon, that of laying the place but to a fixed liability, ie. there is a maximum amount I can lose on any specific lay, my return on successful lays being determined by the price. Looking at the graph of historical results on the Racing Trends site using this strategy, results are very palatable.
My last observation at this stage, is that the Racing Trends service itself is professionally run, transparent, and conscientious, but I am not exploiting anywhere near it's full potential. They are not a mere laying service. Subscribers receive comprehensive stats that cover the forthcoming day's racing which can be used to establish profitable angles. I simply don't have the time to do this, but I wish I did, and for anyone in the fortunate position of being able to do so and who is stats-minded, this information could be a gold mine.
So to sum up - very impressed with the service itself so far; too early to judge the lay results using the strategy I've adopted. Let's see what happens.
Two bets from PJA NH today, and one winner (No Woman No Cry - Newton Abbott - 13/2) and the same for Chasemaster (Dominican Monk - Newton Abbott - 10/1). Two very nice winners and Chasemaster's consistency continues to become more and more consistent. That's a nice sort of consistency to have. None of this inconsistent consistency, the likes of which a certain North London football club have specialised in recently (grrr!).
Northern Monkey's sole bet couldn't quite reach the frame but the On The Nose tip did (Cockney Trucker - Newton Abbott - 9/1) although returns were effected by that nasty Rule 4.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, +2.825pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +0.242pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, +0.918pts.
Total financial profit on racing of £114.83.
A relatively small tennis bet from the soon-to-be-paid-for Sportyy which on this occasion was wide of the mark.
Sportyy: Staked £28, -£28.
Total financial loss on tennis of £28.
Monday 16th May; Staked £138, +£86.83.
Week to date: Staked £138, +£86.83.
Month to date: Staked £5,695, +£1,024.97, roi 17.99%.