The very first thing that I want to say, is that the "research" that this post will refer to is about as scientific as the chimps in that Tetley's advert, you know, the one that had them all dressed in white coats and working in a lab. It is merely a basis upon which to illustrate a point.
I took a look at the SBC Hall of Fame of 18 months ago and listed the services that have since been removed. They are Double The Odds, Tipping Legends, PH Sports Betting, On The Oche and Punter Profits NH. I then looked at their performance since to see if it could be argued that the services had been dropped too early. This isn't a critique on the SBC by the way. It is just examining further the points we looked at regarding PP NH and On The Oche the other night.
First up, Double The Odds. Looking at the website, results are somewhat out of date, but looking at the Racing Index (www.racingindex.com) proofing site, I was able to look at the results from 1st May 2010 to the end of April just gone. Results are to BetFair SP and amount to 8.21 points profit at an roi of just under 1%.
We'll pass over Tipping Legends as JC took a break for a fair period of time and there seems to be no monthly breakdown of results on their website. I don't know if anyone is aware of any proofing site they use, but I can't find one.
Looking at the Sports Tipsters proofing site (www.sports-tipsters.co.uk), PH Sports Betting has done ok since being removed from the HoF. 66.36 points profit at an roi of 5.72%.
Punter Profits we discussed on Monday, but from the Racing Proofing site (www.racingproofing.com) the figures are 37.94 points profit at an roi of 14.2%.
Finally On The Oche (results taken from their website - www.ontheoche.co.uk): 4.75 points profit. I can't work out the roi as I can't see the staking from the website listed results. Obviously since last October, a profit of 4.75 points isn't going to provide a high roi, but the roi from the beginning of 2011 is nearly 45%, as described in Monday's post.
So what do we learn from all this? Looking at it, not a great deal (!) and the only really relevant question to ask possibly is what was the point of this futile exercise! Well, maybe, but perhaps their is an inkling of something we can take from my far from exhaustive studies.
In what is admittedly an extremely small sample of data, we can see that the services spotlighted have maintained some levels of profitability, albeit at reduced levels. Certainly at a level below that which should be expected of an HoF service. PP NH and On The Oche would appear to have great potential to return to the levels they were at in their heyday, but who is to say that PH Sports and DTO can't have a prosperous period which will significantly boost their shorter term roi so that it resembles something like their historical best?
I would like to do some proper research into this, looking at a broader scope of services and their performance over longer periods of time. I have a thought that keeps pricking my conscience that I can't quite dismiss...that once a service has been identified as being suitable to follow, and we are satisfied that it is honest, ethical, practical to follow and is generally run on professional lines, we really should be sticking with it through sticky periods of longer than a season, or say, nine months for a racing service. I know it sounds strange but perhaps actual performance, unless disastrous, shouldn't necessarily be the most important factor to consider when assessing a service and whether or not to continue following it. I don't know - I don't feel entirely confident in this assertion. I've not even decided whether or not I agree with it, as after all, we're all in this to make money, and the bottom line is ultimately all that matters. But there is one thing that I am now absolutely convinced about, and that is it's probably not a good idea to drop a service that is going through a period of merely standing still; that I would/should rather stick with a flatlining service that I can trust in the belief that they will at some point rediscover their joie de vivre, than drop it and go chasing glory with the service that promises to be the next big thing (yes, I have Shaolin Betting in mind as I type this!). A case of better the devil you know, possibly. In which case, my previous decisions to drop Punter Profits, On The Oche, Sports Investor, CD Systems Pro Bets and probably one or two others I could name if I really thought about it, are beginning to look a little foolish.
My being foolish? Now I really am beginning to make sense! Perhaps.
In stark contrast to yesterday's tranquility, today was fast and furious.
Northern Monkey continued their sticky spell since the start of the month, none of today's three selections reaching the frame to provide a return.
A tiny profit was scrambled by PJA NH which managed a nice winner (Cabbyl Doo - Perth - 9/1) amongst six other selections that lost.
ProBandit was quiet with just a small bet on a longshot at Kempton and no returns here.
A decent day for 4PA but perhaps not quite as planned. A largish bet was placed on Taqleed in the opener at York (also put up by On The Nose and Northern Monkey by the way) which disappointed but the win bet on the 'saver' came in to produce a decent profit (Pekan Star - York - 13/2). Incidentally, I had to scratch my head when three services went in on Taqleed, with all three mentioning it's poor draw. As it happens I don't think it was good enough to win despite the draw, but it must have been a negative factor and this is one scenario that a portfolio punter can really come a cropper. Survived this one.
Another poor day for On The Nose I'm afraid. Like Northern Monkey, no return from three bets.
And then we come to Chasemaster. My first lay from this service today, and it was successful (Arturo Uno - Perth - 3.85), followed up by a nice winner (Cabbyl Doo - Perth - 9/1). A continuation of their fantastic form of the last few weeks. By the way, that Cabbyl Doo may have been impacted by a Rule 4, but it rather saved my bacon today.
Racing Trends had four lays today and all were successful. Back in (marginal) profit with them now. I thought I would probably update figures weekly as opposed to daily as it will probably mean more and have more context on a weekly basis.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.75pts, -2.75pts.
PJA NH: Staked 4.5pts, +0.21pts.
ProBandit: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, +1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1.212pts, +1.317pts.
Total profit on the racing of £27.10.
Unfortunately the one football bet provided by Strike Zone for tonight was a loser.
Strike Zone: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Total financial loss on football of £50.
Wednesday 11th May: Staked £507, -£22.90.
Week to date: Staked £845, -£90.95.
Month to date: Staked £4,099, +£898.61, roi 21.92%.
Three small loss days since the start of the week. Better than three big loss days, eh?