Thursday, 9 August 2012

ROI for show. ROC for dough!...

...I think it was Graeme Dand of The Football Analyst that I heard first use that phrase. It made me look very closely at the fundamentals of my portfolio and altered my outlook a little. Until Graeme had drawn my attention to the importance of healthy ROC figures, I, like many I suspect, would judge a service on it's ROI figures pure and simple.

At the end of it all, what is most important to us gamblers is achieving a decent bottom line cash profit, is it not? How we get to it is not to be underestimated as a relevant factor of course, but ultimately a good profit is what we are seeking to achieve. When our gambling is looked at purely in these terms, we can see that there is more than one way to skin a cat.

What brought this to mind was a comment left after my recent post on the Summer Of Football service. Here is the comment:

Hi Rowan,

Good news for summer of football to be placed into the Hall of Fame!
I am not a member of SOF yet but what I really like about SOF is the low bank in relation to the high number of bets.
The bank is 25 points (recommended by SBC)
The number if bets per year is 400
To achieve a grow of 50 % of the bank in one year SOF needs 12.50 points profit, so a ROI of 3.13 % is enough to achieve that, so there is not much pressure on the ROI to have a good growth in bank. And the ROI of SOF was 7.82 % over the last 12 months so much more than 3.13 %!
With a lot of other systems you need a ROI of 10 % to grow the bank with 50 %.

Now I have a few question about the service practicality:
At what time (UK time) are the daily emails supplied?
Are the bets always supplied on the morning of games or sometimes the day before?

That explains things re. ROC rather well. It was the high ROC figure mentioned in the original SBC review of the service back in the early Spring that really drew my attention to Summer Of Football in the first place. It was, at that stage, at 120% for the previous twelve months' performance.

I'm not saying that suddenly we should forget all about ROI. It is still a highly significant measure of success or otherwise. It's just not the only parameter that we should be looking at.

To answer the questions posed at the end of the comment...

The bets usually come through at about 8.00 am on the day of the match taking place.
They are usually on the day of the match. I certainly have no issues at all regarding the practicality of following. In fact, the words I'd use to describe how I find following SOF? Dead easy.


Wednesday's Betting

Another decent day, this time due mainly to On The Nose who had just the one bet, a rather nice winner (Frozen Over - Brighton - 9/1).

The one Winning Racing Tips bet finished a close second to more or less return stakes.

No luck for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/2).

As far as the sports betting was concerned, Service X produced a profit, finding two winners from three.

No joy with the one Form Lab Lite bet.

Month to date figures...

Northern Monkey: Staked 15.75pts, -12pts, roi -76.19%
On The Nose: Staked 14.5pts, -1.275pts, roi -8.79%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 2.7pts, -0.741pts, roi -27.47%
The Market Examiner: Staked 7pts, -0.8pts, roi 11.42%
Total roi -43.53%

Summer Of Football: Staked 5pts, +3pts, roi 60%, ROC 15%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 6pts, +0.565pts, roi 9.41%, ROC 1.13%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 78pts, +17.465pts, roi 22.39%, ROC 17.46%
Total roi 34.28%

Grand Total roi 6.85%


  1. Hello Rowan, this doesn't relate to the above piece but I have wanted to ask to you perhaps write a short blog on what you look for when selecting a new portfolio service? Do you solely rely on sources such as the Secret Betting Club appraisals before signing up, or do you work on the basis of other word of mouth?

    Have found managing portfolio more suitable then making your own personal betting selections, or is this a time factor where you don't have time to do your analysis? It something I have always wondered,

    And finally, could you take a look at this website it a porfolio site that makes selections soley on price value and not on form, through their statistical models. Price to join seems crazy but thought it be interesting to hear your opinions.

    cheers Shane

  2. Hi Rowan,

    Thanks for your answers to my questions!
    It is certainly a very interesting system..

    I had some problems with bookmakers in the past, begin restriced by a few of them, but with low average odds of about 2.05 I guess the chance of being restricted is lower because of lower liability..
    And liquidity should not be a great problem with those relative low odds.

  3. You cant compensate for lack of skill (a nice true edge) by risking stupid amounts of the bankroll per bet.
    If a service would only have a 3% edge a few misstakes or un lucky shots here and there is enough to turn that into -ev.
    I get what you mean about trying to make money but dont let touts tell you a true edge is not the key cause it is.
    Off course a 10% edge is not worth much if you only have 100 bets in a year making just 10 point risking 1 point per bet.
    if you can make 50 points in a year risking 1 point per bet you can make a good living as long as the market you bet in is not very limited for bet size.