Friday, 11 May 2012

For the Stats guys out there...

...a question.

How big does a sample of data need to be (ie. how many bets) before conclusions drawn from it be deemed reliable?

Any thoughts?

And on a completely unrelated note...

We've just managed to get rid of the tenants from hell. They may have paid their rent in their time they were in the house, but f**k me, the state they've left the place in! Seriously, it isn't just filthy. It is slum-filthy. It literally stinks. In 18 months, they've rendered new carpet completely useless. The place needs to be fumigated, and I'm not exaggerating. What they've done to the garden amounts to criminal damage in my eyes. I'm hoping it is in the eyes of the law too, because I'm going to report it as a crime and issue civil proceedings in the small claims court.

Seriously, what is wrong with people? Why does it feel like so many lack common courtesy and simple respect for others and their property? If it was up to me, I'd introduce birching for people that pepetrate mindless crime. If some scrote runs a key down the side of someone's car, seriously, I'd have them publicly whipped. Why not?

I just can't get into the mind of people that do these sort of things. I can understand someone committing a murder more than I can simple petty crime. I can see that murder or theft has a motive, however misguided, plain wrong or deranged as it may be, but what is the motive behind causing physical damage to something just because you can? I don't get it, I really don't.

I think I'm fairly liberal in my outlook. I'm certainly not right wing. But for mindless vandalism and the like, I reckon electrodes attached to the testicles is the way forward.


Today's Betting

A day to forget. Nothing for anyone.

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.8pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 6pts, -6pts.

I feel much better now. A short, sharp rant. There's a lot to be said for it. :)

Have a great weekend, folks. See you Monday.


  1. Hi Rowan,

    I am reading your posts with much interest, I am a gambler too, started fulltime in 1-1-2011.
    I do not have started a blog yet, but I am planning to start one soon.

    In an answer to your question:
    To start playing a system with real money I use several guidelines but these are the most important ones:
    - At least 12 months of live data (so 12 months of proven data, backfitted results does not count)
    - At least 10 % ROI
    - At least 100 winning bets
    - At least 100 bets * average odds (So average odds of 15.00 means 1.500 bets)

    The higher the odds the more bets of proof you need.
    The reason for the 12 months is that a system can perform well in the winterseason but not in the summerseason, this is especially the case in horseracing where there is a summer- and a winterseason with different kind of racing in winter (NH) and summer (flat turf).

    These are my rules, for sure I have not all wisdom in me, but almost everything from gambling I learned from the SBC. The rules are pretty safe, I take not much risk.

    Good luck!

  2. Hi.

    Thanks for your answer - it is an interesting one. I want to come back to this subject at some point over the next few days.

    With you going full time, a blog would be interesting. I'd cetainly read it!

    All the best,