Tuesday, 15 May 2012

Any longer term readers of this blog will be well aware that I have been following The Football Analyst since inception. I saw the seeds of an idea sewn, and from those seeds have grown a mighty collection of highly profitable football systems. Bets were proofed for a whole season within a private forum of which I am massively fortunate to be a part, and then system bets were proofed for the entirety of this season on both Graeme Dand's blog and within the Secret Betting Club forum.

Last night, Graeme launched his new website, for next season he is hoping to expand his subscriber base and finally gain some recompense for the endless hours of hard work and diligence that he has invested in developing a tremendously powerful weapon that can be unleashed upon the bookmaker.

Hyperbole? Not really. These are my figures following System 7/22 over the course of Season 2011/12:

Bets: 70
Points staked: 92
Profit: 29.24pts
ROI: 31.78%
ROC: 97.46%

I have read many things about Graeme's systems in varous places and there is some major misconceptions floating about. Too many systems, too many bets, difficult to follow, etc, etc.

Err..too many bets? I placed 70 over the duration of the season.

Erm...too difficult to follow? I've had no problems securing the best odds and spent about five minutes per week placing the bets.

So what of all the other systems available? How do I decide what to follow? What approach will suit me best?

Well, if I know Graeme, a quick email exchange will give you some strong ideas as to how best to move forward. The very beauty of TFA is that whether you want plenty of churn, a few bets each week, happy to accept more volatility for a higher roi or would prefer a smoother ride in exchange for a slightly lower but still extremely good roi, there is something available.

There are 11 established systems, fully proofed. Of those eleven, no less than ten have achieved an roi in excess of 10%. Over the last two seasons proofed results, an overall roi across the eleven systems of greater than 10% has been hit, and that across literally thousands of bets. Eight of the last eight months have been profitable.

It has to be stated that such a high level of performance that I've enjoyed benefitting from this season may not be repeated next. Any system that throws up just 70-100 bets is vulnerable to the whims of variance, and let's face it, to maintain an roi in excess of 30% would be a big ask. But what I would say is that performance could drop by 50% in terms of roi, and it would still be highly profitable. Having said that, I need to put some thought myself into how to play next season. I know Graeme is working on European leagues and looking at utilising the Asian Handicap markets. Put it this way, I will have options.

I sound like I'm plugging the service. And this is a blog, not an advertising board. The thing is, you see, I feel like I have an emotional investment here. I remember talking to Graeme at Aintree a couple of years ago when he first started out on this venture. To see it all get from there to where it is now, launching a brand new website with a couple of seasons' worth of proofed results behind him is highly satisfying. I know the work that has gone into it all - I've seen it. I wish Graeme all the very best with it. And speaking selfishly, I hope to see the profits next season continue to be made hand over fist, as they have done this.

You know, I genuinely think that we currently benefit from what might be termed a "Golden Age" of football tipsters. The Football Analyst is a relatively new service, albeit with two full season's worth (and high number) of proofed results, but we also have proven long-termers who can only be bracketed in the "Superb" category such as Skeeve and Football Elite (I think most know what I think of these services). We have The Sportsman gaining an increasing reputation for excellence. I know too that Football Investor/Strike Zone has had a tough season but looking at the bigger picture, I have a feeling things will come good there too.

Today's Betting

You know sometimes you try things and they feel right. Other times something you look at simply doesn't fit right. It doesn't feel right. It's in the latter category that I would place my trial of not placing Northern Monkey's smaller staked bets. I don't feel comfortable with it. Yes, I know the stats say that my long term roi would be boosted by ignoring them, but you know, if there's one thing I've learnt about gambling is that you need to do what feels right, and this strategy doesn't. No, it's not a big winner that I've missed out on that makes me feel like this. There hasn't been one. It's simply been a case that it just hasn't felt like it was the right thing to do from the start, so why prolong the experiment?

Today for Northern Monkey? One larger bet (Diamond Blue - Beverley - 7/2 and 100/30) that placed for a small loss.

Now, Winning Racing Tips. What a fantastic performance today! Two doubles, four winners...(Billy Merriott - Hereford and Adiynara - Wincanton) and (Dutch Supreme - Kempton and Cape Express - Southwell)!!! As someone pointed out to me this evening, probably the best single day's return from the service that I (or he) has ever seen, and both of us are long term members. Well done, Paul.

Finally, no success today for The Market Examiner (0/4).

Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -0.245pts.
The Market Examiner: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1pt, +5.852pts.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Rowan,

    With much interest I read your thoughts about the Football analyst, I have looked at this system before in the past and it is probably one of the best footballsystems/tippers.
    You say you are going to play system 7-22, system 7-22 has 70 bets with a ROI over 27 %.
    This is excellent of course, but like you rightly say any system that throws up just 70-100 bets is vulnerable to the whims of variance.

    The problem I have with so few bets is that your stake has to be relatively high to make some money. The higher the stake , the more stress, it is not my style of gambling.
    I rather prefer to play 1000 bets with a stake of 10 euro than 100 bets with a stake of 100 euro.
    At this moment I play a system with about 1000 bets a month, another one with 200 bets a month... the good thing about that is that you do not have to stake high to make some money.

    When I start to play a system my targetROI is 5 %, so I would make 3.5 (70 * 0.05) points with TFA 7-22.
    The costs for TFA are about 200 euro per season.
    So if my stake is 100 euro per bet, my netincome would be (100 euro * 3.5 points) -/- 200 = 150 euro.
    That is not worth while, to make it really worth while I probable have to stake 500 (!) euro or higher.... and that is much too stressful to me! Of course I could set my target on 10 % but I think a target of 5 % is more sensible.
    The other problem with staking 500 euro that you get restricted by bookmakers sooner than staking 100 euro.

    I would rather play system 6-21..... the ROI is lower but the number of bets (500) suit me more, I do not have to stake that high!
    With a targetROI of 5% I would make 25 points profit with TFA 6-21.
    So I get the same netincome in playing system 6-21 with a stake of 3.5 / 25 = 14 % of system 7-22.
    With a stake of 500 euro for 7-22 I could play 6-21 with a stake of 500 * 0.14 = 70 euro!
    For that reason I would prefer to play system 6-21, less stressfull, less volatile and less problems with bookmakers. I know the ROI for 6-21 (10 %) is lower than 7-22 (27 %) but I will settle for 5 % so I still have a 50 % margin.
    I could also play all the combo systems of course but the volatility increases with multiple bets and.... there are bets which are selected by 6 (!) combosystems so the stake is going to be very high for those multiple bets, 6 times the initial stake!

    What are your thoughts on this Rowan? You do not have to say what your stake is but I am interested in your thoughts about this..