Friday, 25 May 2012

Staying within the Elite of Football betting services.

Reading the recently released SBC end of football season review this week, it was noticeable that Matt of Football Elite described his season as having been a solid one, rather than spectacular. I know what he means, but really, when you take a step back and look dispassionately at 2011/12 now - which is easier to do now it is finished - I think he's actually understating his performance somewhat.

To my mind, a nigh on 15% roi is pretty spectacular over any season's football betting activity. Just think about it for a second. 15%. That's pretty darned decent, isn't it? Anything above 10% is not too shabby in my book, so for 15% to be "solid"...well, it's the kind of solidity I like!

There is no doubt that FE's final figures owed much to the success of the antepost bets struck before the season started, but I've heard some make reference to this in terms that although not critical, do seem to be a little disparaging. An attitude that, yeah, 15% ain't bad, but you know if it weren't for those antepost bets....

I don't get that. Were those bets not struck? Did Matt not advise them as official selections? Historically, FE's antepost bets have performed strongly and they are both a valuable and integral part of the FE package. To look upon those bets as anything other than this is plainly wrong. If all Matt's match bets throughout a season simply broke even (which wasn't the case, by the way - they constituted around half of the total profit made), but then his antepost bets made significant profit (ie. provided an overall roi of 15%), then so what? In the final reckoning, I've made 15% roi. End of.

Having said all of this, I know what Matt means by "solid". In fact, around January/February time the season felt anything but solid, as performance wasn't exactly exhilerating and this was coming off the back of what had undoubtedly been a disappointing 2010/11 season. Being completely honest, I did pause momentarily when it came to renewing my subs around early spring time. But then a bit of experience kicked in. And thank the Lord Bergkamp it did, for the remaining months of the season saw a return to the form that FE built it's reputation on. A couple of years ago I don't think I'd have renewed. If ever there was an example of the benefits of experience, there it was.

Looking back now, I realise that Football Elite as an individual entity is, by it's nature, extremely vulnerable to the ravages of variance. With around 100 bets per season, there simply isn't enough churn to get variance out of the system, as it were. This is always a risk for low turnover services, and FE is no exception. What we have in FE though is a service that has been profitable for each of the six seasons it's been in existence, returning an overall roi around 16%. That is a very defined edge that Matt has demonstrated, and has demonstrated it within markets that many believe are the most efficiently priced by the bookmakers, the top European leagues.

So where are we with FE? A long-running, successful service, run by a seasoned pro with a sound methodology, making selections in markets which are easy to get big money into.

That'll do for me.

Today's Betting

Northern Monkey got one placed from two. No luck for The Market Examiner (0/2).

And that was it.

The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -0.712pts.

Just to say, as usual I won't be posting much up over the weekend. But, what I will do is put the stats for each day's betting. Call me a lazy sod, but I don't enjoy collating each service's weekend performance on the Monday. All gets a bit messy.

Have a great weekend. Time to dust off the barbies.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Rowan,

    I agree with your opinion about football elite, it is a great performance to have 6 winning season in a row from start! It is even more excellent considering the low number of bets, only 100 per year.
    I play some other systems on horseracing, which are profitable in the long term, but in batches of 100 bets they sometimes lose 80 points, they have a higher average odds of course which makes it more volatile but even in batches of 1.000 bets they sometimes lose.
    But at the end of the year these horseracingsystems normally make a profit like football elite but with much more bets (10.000) which makes it a little easier than with 100 bets.
    So, great performance of football elite! The man behind the system is very professional, seems to be able to handle his emotions very well!
    From the 17 systems SBC reviewed 16 made a profit and 10 systems made a profit over 10 %, it shows that SBC is very good in picking the better football systems!
    A lot to choose from...
    I also like football analyst, the only problem is that there are so many systems to play that is a big puzzle to pick a system... 7-22 has the highest ROI but only 70 bets, 6-21 has a lower ROI but much more bets. In playing 7-22 you have to stake high to get a decent profit, with 6-21 you do not have to stake that high to make a good profit... a puzzle! In playing all 6 combisystems you get the problem that sometimes a bet is selected by 6 systems which means you have to stake 6 times the initial stake, a little too much for me!.
    I also like football investor (and strike zone), did not had a good season but for sure will recover.
    But there are so many good systems that it is difficult to pick a system or systems.
    Being a fulltimer I prefer playing systems with high number of bets (and a ROI of more than 10 %), I do not have to stake high, it is less volatile and I have plenty of time to place the bets.
    For someone with a fulltime job it is a different story I understand....
    Anyway, good luck with your decisions!