Reading the recently released SBC end of football season review this week, it was noticeable that Matt of Football Elite described his season as having been a solid one, rather than spectacular. I know what he means, but really, when you take a step back and look dispassionately at 2011/12 now - which is easier to do now it is finished - I think he's actually understating his performance somewhat.
To my mind, a nigh on 15% roi is pretty spectacular over any season's football betting activity. Just think about it for a second. 15%. That's pretty darned decent, isn't it? Anything above 10% is not too shabby in my book, so for 15% to be "solid"...well, it's the kind of solidity I like!
There is no doubt that FE's final figures owed much to the success of the antepost bets struck before the season started, but I've heard some make reference to this in terms that although not critical, do seem to be a little disparaging. An attitude that, yeah, 15% ain't bad, but you know if it weren't for those antepost bets....
I don't get that. Were those bets not struck? Did Matt not advise them as official selections? Historically, FE's antepost bets have performed strongly and they are both a valuable and integral part of the FE package. To look upon those bets as anything other than this is plainly wrong. If all Matt's match bets throughout a season simply broke even (which wasn't the case, by the way - they constituted around half of the total profit made), but then his antepost bets made significant profit (ie. provided an overall roi of 15%), then so what? In the final reckoning, I've made 15% roi. End of.
Having said all of this, I know what Matt means by "solid". In fact, around January/February time the season felt anything but solid, as performance wasn't exactly exhilerating and this was coming off the back of what had undoubtedly been a disappointing 2010/11 season. Being completely honest, I did pause momentarily when it came to renewing my subs around early spring time. But then a bit of experience kicked in. And thank the Lord Bergkamp it did, for the remaining months of the season saw a return to the form that FE built it's reputation on. A couple of years ago I don't think I'd have renewed. If ever there was an example of the benefits of experience, there it was.
Looking back now, I realise that Football Elite as an individual entity is, by it's nature, extremely vulnerable to the ravages of variance. With around 100 bets per season, there simply isn't enough churn to get variance out of the system, as it were. This is always a risk for low turnover services, and FE is no exception. What we have in FE though is a service that has been profitable for each of the six seasons it's been in existence, returning an overall roi around 16%. That is a very defined edge that Matt has demonstrated, and has demonstrated it within markets that many believe are the most efficiently priced by the bookmakers, the top European leagues.
So where are we with FE? A long-running, successful service, run by a seasoned pro with a sound methodology, making selections in markets which are easy to get big money into.
That'll do for me.
Northern Monkey got one placed from two. No luck for The Market Examiner (0/2).
And that was it.
The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -0.712pts.
Just to say, as usual I won't be posting much up over the weekend. But, what I will do is put the stats for each day's betting. Call me a lazy sod, but I don't enjoy collating each service's weekend performance on the Monday. All gets a bit messy.
Have a great weekend. Time to dust off the barbies.