Monday, 12 November 2012

Football woes.

It was only last week in the 'Comments' section that I was asked the question why it was I persevered with betting on the horses when keeping active accounts open was so problematical. Why am I not just concentrating on football?, my questioner, perfectly reasonably, asked. My response mentioned the importance of diversification within a portfolio investment strategy, and these last weeks have illustrated my point superbly, an illustration painted most vividly this weekend. These last couple of days would have been very sorry indeed, were it not for a couple of extremely good winners provided by my racing tipsters.

There's no escaping the fact that the football is dragging me down somewhat just at present. Football Elite had a horrible weekend in which four matches had unfavourable final scores. Whatever the whys and wherefores, the ifs, buts and maybes, it leaves FE down on the season to date. Skeeve too, is in the same situation, a victim of increased levels of randomness seemingly apparent in the Blue Square Premier League so far this season. Despite a good start to 2012/13, The Football Analyst has hit a wall, and after a poor weekend in Europe, is now down overall (for the TFA portfolio I am following anyway). The Sportsman is yet to produce a profit on the season, and as mentioned last week the Daily Report recommendations of Form Lab Lite have made considerable losses. Add to this depressing mix the fact that Summer Of Football is now enduring a relatively sizeable drawdown, then you can see the current position is far from rosy. In fact, the only sports services really to hit their straps over the last couple of months or so are Sportyy, whose performance has been stupendously good over this period, and Service X which for reasons other than results is one I'm thinking long and hard about being an ongoing part of my plans (more on that later this week). All in, it means that from being in a position a few weeks ago of enjoying a significant level of profit for the sports tipsters, I'm now in a loss-making position over the period 1st August to the present day. It's been some drawdown, I can tell you.

Let's not lose perspective though. Overall, I still managed to turn a perfectly decent profit in both August and September, get my head in front in October, and thanks to the strong form of the racing tipsters in the portfolio, am down an amount that really isn't too significant for November so far. We must also remember that gains and losses on the football are always likely to be more dramatic due to the fact that the stakes are much bigger than those used on the nags. This means that losses on losing runs and profits on winning runs tend to accrue much more quickly. A one point win on an evens shot on the footie equates to a one point win on a horse at 10/1. That is the inevitability when the portfolio has been geared more heavily towards sports betting than horse racing, as mine has.

I do think that this current poor run is a little harder to take mentally because, perhaps foolishly, I had readied myself for October and November being strong months for football betting. They certainly were last year and there are logical reasons for why it should be so. The form has had time to settle, and each team still has something to play for (apart from Arsenal, I might suggest :( ). I was kinda hoping this was the time to make hay, so to be at the opposite end of that scale has taken me a little by surprise. I'll be more ready for it next year, I can tell you!

Looking upon things positively, is the fact that overall, I'm hardly down for the month a real triumph for portfolio investment? It is always difficult when in the midst of a bad run to take a step back and see things in context. Am I not currently in a situation whereby the racing has put itself into a very strong position for the month, and should the football services start to find their form, which surely they will soon, then November could well end up being a stormer? Like I said, football-generated profits can build rapidly - perhaps over the course of just one weekend or even a solitary Saturday afternoon - add these to a nice nest egg of horse racing-generated money already "in the bank"...and everyone's a winner! Perhaps I'm trying to kid myself, but you see my point.

The alternative viewpoint is that my strategy is fundamentally flawed or my portfolio constructed with services built of straw. Perhaps, although I doubt that in the space of a few weeks, the collective expertise gained over a number of years of experience by the likes of Football Elite, Skeeve, The Football Analyst and The Sportsman has all gone to pot with a subsequent destruction of their collective edge. I think this highly unlikely. You?

Yesterday's Betting

A great winner for The Sportsman Racing. I do like a bit of inside info. It all adds to the mystery of things and with info like Scott's, it also adds to the profit making (Prophete de Guy - Market Rasen - 7/2).

Elsewhere, not so good, other than Sportyy finding another winner in the Spanish football.

On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, +1.75pts.
Winning Racing Systems (Favs): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
The Market Examiner: Staked 1pt, -1pt.

Summer Of Football: Staked 2pts, -0.25pts.
Football Elite: Staked 3pts, -2.015pts.
On The Oche: Staked 3.5pts, -0.821pts.
Sportyy: Staked 5pts, +2.225pts.
The Football Analyst (E3-E7): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Service X: Staked 3pts, +2.1pts.

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