Problems

I mentioned the other day that I wasn't going to be posting daily any more, but I thought I'd better do something tonight after receiving an email from someone who wanted to know if I'd topped myself after Arsenal's insipid performance at Old Trafford on Saturday. Must admit, if I'd have thought of it at the time...


Back in August I wrote the following about Form Lab Lite:

The only potential issue for myself when I cast an eye to the future, is whether or not when I up stakes I'll be able to get on all the bets. On occasion, the only bookies with the relevant market are those that you would recognise as being 'High Street' (although the number of bets for which this is the case is very much the minority). At my current staking levels, it's not a problem, but with higher stakes? It's a question mark, that's all. It may be fine, but regardless, I'm not at that stage yet so for now at least, I can carry happily on as I am.

Well, I have reached the stage where I can't just carry on as I have been doing. About two weeks ago, William Hill restricted a bet I was trying to place on a Form Lab Lite bet, and on Saturday past, Paddy Power did the same. The bets I was trying to place were on the Over 3.5 goals line, a line that was unavailable on the relevant matches at the Asian bookmakers, through which I am now directing 75% of my total betting turnover.

My concern is for the sustainability of my accounts with Hills and Paddy Power. They are one of the few bookmakers that still allow me the BOG concession on the horses, and as such they need to be protected in the way a mother lion protects it's cub (or in the way a certain Brazilian full back protects his collection of opposing players' shirts, perhaps - what a bell end!). After changing the whole structure of my portfolio to allow me to reduce the strain put on my BOG accounts, and going to daft lengths to split bets on the horses amongst up to five different bookmakers at times in an attempt to stay under the radar, there's no way I can put their sustainability at risk by placing football bets with them. Not when they have started to place restrictions and must therefore be looking at my account closely.

Now, I also have to be honest here, and say that were Form Lab Lite pulling up trees, producing fine profits, then I might be more inclined to find a solution. I'm not too sure what that solution could be, mind you. Nothing springs to mind. However, it's fair to say that the performance of the 'Daily Report' selections has been very poor. From it's highest point, and allowing for the price of subscriptions, my drawdown equates to nearly 80% of the bank dedicated to it. Combine that with the difficulty I'm now facing getting on some of the bets, and I'm put in the position whereby I have to seriously question whether it is worth persevering with. I have temporarily stopped backing the selections while I chew this over. Do I simply restrict my bets to those that I can place with the Asian bookmakers and hang in there in the hope of an upturn in performance? Or do I just call it quits? I need to pause for thought.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Talking of the Asian bookmakers, my increasing reliance on them is beginning to have an effect on my results. Not in terms of overall profitability (although there's not been much in the way of profit-making recently!), but in terms of the odds I have to take. It is noticeable that with the likes of The Football Analyst and Summer Of Football selections, the price I'm taking is frequently some way off the best available in the market. Trouble is, the best price is often offered by the likes of Bet365 and Ladbrokes, with whom I can't stake a penny, or with Hills or BetInternet which are those still offering BOG on racing as mentioned above. This situation will, over time, lower my ROI figures. But, using the Asian bookies means I can place bigger bets, so although the roi is decreasing, bottom line cash profit figures should continue to increase. As I've said before, I don't care if I'm running at 1% roi as long as that 1% amounts to an income with which I am happy!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was great to see Skeeve produce a strong weekend. An 11+ point profit was most welcome and but for the lack of one goal in another match, it would have been a 20+ point profit.

And it was a darned good job that Skeeve did produce the goods, because results elsewhere made for grim reading. Sunday was particularly poor and as a result I find myself significantly down for November already. Early days yet though, and I remain hopeful still of a good month.