Skeeve pointed out that he thought the profit levels I had attributed to him this weekend was on the low side. I thought it the case that I had missed out on the better odds due to my PC having what can only be described as a hissy-fit when I was trying to place the bets.
Then I looked again...
My profit with Skeeve for yesterday should have stated 4.64pts, not 2.64pts.
They say a blog keeps you honest...
So, in the interests of accuracy (and I have double checked all of yesterday's results to make sure that I didn't have what is known as a "mare") my figures should read...
Week: Staked £3,572, +£250.29.
Month to date: Staked £3,442, +£229.29, roi 6.66%.
Apologies to Skeeve for diddling him out of a couple of points.
I need an early night...
PS. This isn't today's main blog post - see below!
Sunday, 6 March 2011
I wanted to stick £100 on Fulham yesterday, and looking at the coupons 4/5 was available at Hills, Ladbrokes and Coral. I couldn't get 1.8 online anywhere, so I drove into town to place the bet in cash. Hills had shortened them into 8/13, and when I walked into the Ladbrokes opposite, they had done the same. Back to the car, a couple of miles down the road and into the nearest Coral.
Up to the counter I sauntered, and gave a cheery, "Hello." The guy behind the counter looked at me, and said nothing. Undaunted, I asked the cashier if he could check the price on Fulham for me as the other bookmakers had shortened them. "4/5", he said. "Super", said I, and filled in my coupon. "£100?", he asked. "Yes", said me (not a man of many words, this chap - he wasn't encouraging conversation!). "I'll have to make a 'phone call", he told me, in a rare verbal outpouring.
Five minutes later, and the cashier was having trouble with his 'phone. I suppose being a man of so very few words, using a gadget which involves talking probably doesn't come too easily. So, I thought I'd use the time effectively - do a little detective work as it were. I edged over to the other cashier, a young (and not unattractive) lady who I would like to think I had made a favourable impression on in the last few months, but that's probably wishful thinking on my part. I asked her why the need for a 'phone call to facilitate a £100 bet on a Premiership team at odds of 4/5. The answer was (mildly) interesting - it was because I had mentioned that other bookmakers had shortened the price. Shan't be doing that again, then. You live and learn.
Today's Action
Very quiet day's racing - only two services in action. On The Nose had one selection (Good Fella - Naas - 25/1) which finished third to provide a nice profit, which was then wiped out by PJA NH not finding a winner (and only one placed) in four.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +2.626pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3.25pts, -2.75pts
Financial loss on the racing of £2.48.
Football Elite. Not their best day...0/2. Better for Football Investor and Shaolin Betting which both put up Liverpool, Shaolin as DNB.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, +2pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 1pt, +1.17pts.
Financial loss on the football of £111.50.
Sunday 6th March: Staked £350, -£113.98.
Week: Staked £3,572, +£220.29.
Month to date: Staked £3,442, +£199.29, roi 5.78%.
So, who's looking forward to Monday morning, then?
Up to the counter I sauntered, and gave a cheery, "Hello." The guy behind the counter looked at me, and said nothing. Undaunted, I asked the cashier if he could check the price on Fulham for me as the other bookmakers had shortened them. "4/5", he said. "Super", said I, and filled in my coupon. "£100?", he asked. "Yes", said me (not a man of many words, this chap - he wasn't encouraging conversation!). "I'll have to make a 'phone call", he told me, in a rare verbal outpouring.
Five minutes later, and the cashier was having trouble with his 'phone. I suppose being a man of so very few words, using a gadget which involves talking probably doesn't come too easily. So, I thought I'd use the time effectively - do a little detective work as it were. I edged over to the other cashier, a young (and not unattractive) lady who I would like to think I had made a favourable impression on in the last few months, but that's probably wishful thinking on my part. I asked her why the need for a 'phone call to facilitate a £100 bet on a Premiership team at odds of 4/5. The answer was (mildly) interesting - it was because I had mentioned that other bookmakers had shortened the price. Shan't be doing that again, then. You live and learn.
Today's Action
Very quiet day's racing - only two services in action. On The Nose had one selection (Good Fella - Naas - 25/1) which finished third to provide a nice profit, which was then wiped out by PJA NH not finding a winner (and only one placed) in four.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +2.626pts.
PJA NH: Staked 3.25pts, -2.75pts
Financial loss on the racing of £2.48.
Football Elite. Not their best day...0/2. Better for Football Investor and Shaolin Betting which both put up Liverpool, Shaolin as DNB.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, +2pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 1pt, +1.17pts.
Financial loss on the football of £111.50.
Sunday 6th March: Staked £350, -£113.98.
Week: Staked £3,572, +£220.29.
Month to date: Staked £3,442, +£199.29, roi 5.78%.
So, who's looking forward to Monday morning, then?
Saturday, 5 March 2011
A curry awaits...
OK, just a very quick 'results' post tonight - there's a curry with my name on it, waiting for me rather impatiently.
Today's Action
Five racing services in action today and three produced profit but only enough to produce just a small profit overall.
Winning Racing Tips have had a stonking three days and today they found a winner in Pokfulham (Kelso - 9/2) and a superb 2.5pts profit. Chasemaster had a good day, finding amongst their three selections a winner (Trouper Clarence - Kempton - 11/4) for a near point profit. For anyone wondering, I don't follow their laying advice, simply because I don't like laying, but the service did also advise a successful lay (obviously) in Trouper Clarence's race. PJA managed to find six horses that couldn't reach the frame, but a nice winner (Via Galilei - Newbury - 9/1) was enough for a shade over a point's profit.
On The Nose had four selections, one of which placed (Doctor Foxtrot - Doncaster - 12/1) so just a small loss. 4PA was the service to drag performance down; three losers and with the way the service's selections are staked, it proved to be costly.
4PA: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
PJA NH: Staked 4.75pts, +1.062pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, +2.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, +0.875pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £13.75.
And so to the football.
Football Elite provided a superb tip - Hannover to beat Bayern Munich (DNB) and they duly obliged at odds of over 3/1! Reading the analysis beforehand, win or lose, it was a great tip. Unfortunately, a rare foray into odds on territory with the day's second selection proved unsuccessful. Bloody typical!
Football Investor found four winners from their 13 selections and a nice profit on the day. Skeeve continued his solid form by providing a couple of points profit, Strike Zone got two from three but the smallest of profits, and The Sportsman's only bet was a winner.
Producing a deficit were The Football Analyst (one from two so only a marginal loss), Shaolin Betting (ditto), and Sports Investor, who did nothing to convince me that I was right to give them a reprieve with two losers (one of them returning half stakes).
Skeeve: Staked 25pts, +2.64pts.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, +2.15pts.
Football Investor: Staked 13pts, +3.12pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 3pts, +0.02pts.
Sports Investor: Staked 2pts, -1.5pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 2pts, -0.22pts.
The Football Analyst: Staked 2pts, -0.2pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.093pts.
Financial profit on the football of £150.
Saturday 5th March: Staked £1,827, +£163.75.
Week to date: Staked £3,222, +£334.27.
Month to date: Staked £3,092, +£313.27, roi 10.13%.
So, not spectacular returns by any stretch, but a darned better Saturday than the previous two.
Now...lamb jalfrezi, saag aloo, and a cold beer...laters.
Today's Action
Five racing services in action today and three produced profit but only enough to produce just a small profit overall.
Winning Racing Tips have had a stonking three days and today they found a winner in Pokfulham (Kelso - 9/2) and a superb 2.5pts profit. Chasemaster had a good day, finding amongst their three selections a winner (Trouper Clarence - Kempton - 11/4) for a near point profit. For anyone wondering, I don't follow their laying advice, simply because I don't like laying, but the service did also advise a successful lay (obviously) in Trouper Clarence's race. PJA managed to find six horses that couldn't reach the frame, but a nice winner (Via Galilei - Newbury - 9/1) was enough for a shade over a point's profit.
On The Nose had four selections, one of which placed (Doctor Foxtrot - Doncaster - 12/1) so just a small loss. 4PA was the service to drag performance down; three losers and with the way the service's selections are staked, it proved to be costly.
4PA: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
PJA NH: Staked 4.75pts, +1.062pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.2pts, +2.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, +0.875pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £13.75.
And so to the football.
Football Elite provided a superb tip - Hannover to beat Bayern Munich (DNB) and they duly obliged at odds of over 3/1! Reading the analysis beforehand, win or lose, it was a great tip. Unfortunately, a rare foray into odds on territory with the day's second selection proved unsuccessful. Bloody typical!
Football Investor found four winners from their 13 selections and a nice profit on the day. Skeeve continued his solid form by providing a couple of points profit, Strike Zone got two from three but the smallest of profits, and The Sportsman's only bet was a winner.
Producing a deficit were The Football Analyst (one from two so only a marginal loss), Shaolin Betting (ditto), and Sports Investor, who did nothing to convince me that I was right to give them a reprieve with two losers (one of them returning half stakes).
Skeeve: Staked 25pts, +2.64pts.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, +2.15pts.
Football Investor: Staked 13pts, +3.12pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 3pts, +0.02pts.
Sports Investor: Staked 2pts, -1.5pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 2pts, -0.22pts.
The Football Analyst: Staked 2pts, -0.2pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.093pts.
Financial profit on the football of £150.
Saturday 5th March: Staked £1,827, +£163.75.
Week to date: Staked £3,222, +£334.27.
Month to date: Staked £3,092, +£313.27, roi 10.13%.
So, not spectacular returns by any stretch, but a darned better Saturday than the previous two.
Now...lamb jalfrezi, saag aloo, and a cold beer...laters.
Friday, 4 March 2011
To BOG, or not to BOG...
Is Best Odds Guaranteed about to become a thing of the past? Certainly the signs are not good. As I am sure you are aware, Coral this week introduced their own slant on BOG offerings which, when all is said and done, means that the punter has to accept a lower price on a horse if wishing to utilise their BOG. It was not so long ago that Stan James removed completely from their book the offer of taking BOG. Of the remaining bookmakers that do provide the service, there remains only Bet365, BetInternet, Paddy Power, Chandler, Ladbrokes and William Hill. I know BetFred and Boyles nominally offer BOG, but has anyone here been able to use it recently? No? Mmm...thought not.
So what are the consequences to us, the gambler? Well, my biggest concern is that if determined to utilise BOG for all horse racing bets, it is becoming harder to spread the bets around between the bookmakers, simply because the size of the pool offering BOG is diminishing. Assuming that over time, your bets are spread equally across the range of BOG bookies, the remaining six are having to pick up the slack that is a result of no longer being able to use Coral and Stan James. In other words, more money is going to be placed with the remaining BOG bookies, which in turn will shorten the the time it will take before restrictions and account closures will rear their collective ugly heads.
Is this necessarily the problem it appears to be though? Is taking BOG the be all and end all that we, as investors always seeking to maximise every possible edge, make it? It's an interesting one. Let's try and look at things a little differently. Would we be worried about a service we were following if the SP was frequently longer than the "advised" odds? I would be. I would be wondering where the value lay in the service's tips. So, assuming (admittedly, always a dangerous thing to do) that the majority of bets we strike shorten in price, is it really a disaster if we take the longest price available in the morning markets, regardless of whether the bookie offering that price were BOG or not? Yes, there will undoubtedly be times when we back drifters that win and if not backed with a BOG bookmaker, we will resent the fact. But how many times is this likely to happen? Not too many should drift and then of the ones that do, not many more than 20% of these few will win (15 - 20% tends to be the rough average win percentage across the services used). In fact, I am sure the figure will be much less than 20%, as if a horse drifts significantly, there is often a reason for it doing so and that reason usually means that something is amiss and the horse unlikely to win.
At the end of all this theorising, and that is all this is (!), it all boils down to this... Are we prepared to accept the odd winning drifter on which we miss out on a little extra profit if it means that we protect our under threat accounts by spreading our bets more thinly across more books, some of which are non-BOG? Answers on a postcard...
Today's Action
Well, Winning Racing Tips are in a fine bit of form at the moment. They were the only service today to produce a profit, but it was large enough to give another winning day overall. They went for two selections in the 2.20 at Newbury (Omaruru - 10/1 and Two Kisses - 5/1). Omaruru won, Two Kisses was second! Pretty good tipping in my book. Just as an aside though, I do believe that Omaruru was given by The Patient Speculation blog - go take a look.
Elsewhere, ProBandit found a winner (Estonia - Lingfield - 9/4) but results elsewhere meant a small loss on the day. PJA NH found one to place from two and Chasemaster found two that finished in the frame from three. On The Nose drew a blank from two selections.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -0.65pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 3pts, -0.687pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.4pts, +2.4pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, -0.35pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £62.50.
Friday 4th March: Staked £314, +£62.50.
Week to date: Staked £1,395, +£170.52.
Month to date: Staked £1,265, +£149.52, roi 11.81%.
Finally, before I go for the weekend, I would like to draw your attention to Mr.X. Readers from the early days will know that Mr.X is a friend of mine who gives football tips. Well, I can reveal a little more now - you can find him at www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com (there's also a permanent link to the right and up a bit). Go take a look - fascinating reading and good footie tips. I shall also reveal a little more about him next week.
I'll be back tomorrow night to post up the results. Have a great weekend.
So what are the consequences to us, the gambler? Well, my biggest concern is that if determined to utilise BOG for all horse racing bets, it is becoming harder to spread the bets around between the bookmakers, simply because the size of the pool offering BOG is diminishing. Assuming that over time, your bets are spread equally across the range of BOG bookies, the remaining six are having to pick up the slack that is a result of no longer being able to use Coral and Stan James. In other words, more money is going to be placed with the remaining BOG bookies, which in turn will shorten the the time it will take before restrictions and account closures will rear their collective ugly heads.
Is this necessarily the problem it appears to be though? Is taking BOG the be all and end all that we, as investors always seeking to maximise every possible edge, make it? It's an interesting one. Let's try and look at things a little differently. Would we be worried about a service we were following if the SP was frequently longer than the "advised" odds? I would be. I would be wondering where the value lay in the service's tips. So, assuming (admittedly, always a dangerous thing to do) that the majority of bets we strike shorten in price, is it really a disaster if we take the longest price available in the morning markets, regardless of whether the bookie offering that price were BOG or not? Yes, there will undoubtedly be times when we back drifters that win and if not backed with a BOG bookmaker, we will resent the fact. But how many times is this likely to happen? Not too many should drift and then of the ones that do, not many more than 20% of these few will win (15 - 20% tends to be the rough average win percentage across the services used). In fact, I am sure the figure will be much less than 20%, as if a horse drifts significantly, there is often a reason for it doing so and that reason usually means that something is amiss and the horse unlikely to win.
At the end of all this theorising, and that is all this is (!), it all boils down to this... Are we prepared to accept the odd winning drifter on which we miss out on a little extra profit if it means that we protect our under threat accounts by spreading our bets more thinly across more books, some of which are non-BOG? Answers on a postcard...
Today's Action
Well, Winning Racing Tips are in a fine bit of form at the moment. They were the only service today to produce a profit, but it was large enough to give another winning day overall. They went for two selections in the 2.20 at Newbury (Omaruru - 10/1 and Two Kisses - 5/1). Omaruru won, Two Kisses was second! Pretty good tipping in my book. Just as an aside though, I do believe that Omaruru was given by The Patient Speculation blog - go take a look.
Elsewhere, ProBandit found a winner (Estonia - Lingfield - 9/4) but results elsewhere meant a small loss on the day. PJA NH found one to place from two and Chasemaster found two that finished in the frame from three. On The Nose drew a blank from two selections.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -0.65pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 3pts, -0.687pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.4pts, +2.4pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, -0.35pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £62.50.
Friday 4th March: Staked £314, +£62.50.
Week to date: Staked £1,395, +£170.52.
Month to date: Staked £1,265, +£149.52, roi 11.81%.
Finally, before I go for the weekend, I would like to draw your attention to Mr.X. Readers from the early days will know that Mr.X is a friend of mine who gives football tips. Well, I can reveal a little more now - you can find him at www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com (there's also a permanent link to the right and up a bit). Go take a look - fascinating reading and good footie tips. I shall also reveal a little more about him next week.
I'll be back tomorrow night to post up the results. Have a great weekend.
Thursday, 3 March 2011
A different perspective.
Last night, I talked about how a third party can sometimes provide a different perspective on things that may be troubling you about your gambling. I don't know how anyone else feels, but there are times when I find serious gambling to be a pretty lonely business. If no man is an island, this game can make you feel pretty cut off at times; it can be the tide coming in and covering your route back to the mainland.
This situation in itself can lead quite understandably to self-absorption and introspection. What might in reality be a small matter may be blown out of proportion and sometimes it is possible for the investor's judgement to be affected, is it not? And it is at precisely this time, that an outsider's viewpoint or "angle" can be so beneficial.
Peter, of Chasemaster, yesterday provided me with a second example of where I may have lost a little objectivity to my perspective in as many days. He posted...
"Hi
Peter here from Chasemaster and I hope you don't mind me posting a comment on your interesting blog. I don't understand the problem with a 9/2 shot each way in a 5 runner race. The raw odds of a place are 2/5 (40%) and at 1/4 the odds returns a small profit on the place. Many services, mine included yesterday, have backed a 5/1 shot for a place in an 8 runner race without comment. The raw odds are 3/8 (37.5%) and the place only returns your stake."
Can't really argue with that, to be honest. But what I find interesting, is that I would never in a million years have had this thought process about backing a 9/2 shot each way in a five runner race. As I mentioned in my reply to Peter, for the last twenty-odd years I have been entrenched in my opinion that backing each way in a race with seven runners or less somehow contravenes one of the gambling commandments. The source of these commandments? I have some vague memory of a letter published in the back of the 'Raceform Update'.
Anyway, I have - quite rightly - been admonished, and possibly in the nicest way ever. Just another note about Chasemaster though. Reading over again what I said about the service in the February racing review the other night, I can see that what I wrote could be seen a little as damning with faint praise. This was certainly not my intention. I enjoy the service. It has a nice feel, if you know what I mean? Dealing with bets coming through at unexpected times keeps life interesting, and believe me, it doesn't happen at all often. And what is the alternative? For Peter and his colleagues to identify what they believe to be a good bet but then not send it through to their subscribers because of a self-imposed time restraint? I don't think so, do you?
In another comment left on the blog yesterday, Mark asked me for an opinion on the Secret Betting Club. I gave a very short, minimalist reply, as I believe this would make the subject of a good post in itself. Next week I think, on that one.
Today's Action
A better day today on the nags. Winning Racing Tips took most of the plaudits by finding one winner (Henry King - Taunton - 4/1) and a placed (Furrows - Ludlow - 14/1) from three selections. Not far behind in plaudits earned terms came On The Nose who found two winners from two selections (Isn't That Lucky - Ludlow - 4/1 and Henry King - Taunton - 4/1). PJA NH also found a winner (Isn't That Lucky - Ludlow - 4/1) amongst four tips and turned a small profit. Northern Monkey Punter and Chasemaster each put up one bet apiece and both were unplaced, and ProBandit didn't find the winner of the race they played in.
PJA NH: Staked 3.25pts, +0.625pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +4pts.
Pro Bandit: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.6pts, +1.88pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Financial profit on the horses of £135.30.
The only sports bet today was struck by The Sportsman and it proved to be a winner in tonight's Premier League Darts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.1pt, +0.066pts.
Financial profit on the darts of £13.20.
Thursday 3rd March: Staked £271, +£148.62.
Week to date: Staked £1,081, +£108.02.
Month to date: Staked £951, +£87.02, roi 9.15%.
Goodnight!
This situation in itself can lead quite understandably to self-absorption and introspection. What might in reality be a small matter may be blown out of proportion and sometimes it is possible for the investor's judgement to be affected, is it not? And it is at precisely this time, that an outsider's viewpoint or "angle" can be so beneficial.
Peter, of Chasemaster, yesterday provided me with a second example of where I may have lost a little objectivity to my perspective in as many days. He posted...
"Hi
Peter here from Chasemaster and I hope you don't mind me posting a comment on your interesting blog. I don't understand the problem with a 9/2 shot each way in a 5 runner race. The raw odds of a place are 2/5 (40%) and at 1/4 the odds returns a small profit on the place. Many services, mine included yesterday, have backed a 5/1 shot for a place in an 8 runner race without comment. The raw odds are 3/8 (37.5%) and the place only returns your stake."
Can't really argue with that, to be honest. But what I find interesting, is that I would never in a million years have had this thought process about backing a 9/2 shot each way in a five runner race. As I mentioned in my reply to Peter, for the last twenty-odd years I have been entrenched in my opinion that backing each way in a race with seven runners or less somehow contravenes one of the gambling commandments. The source of these commandments? I have some vague memory of a letter published in the back of the 'Raceform Update'.
Anyway, I have - quite rightly - been admonished, and possibly in the nicest way ever. Just another note about Chasemaster though. Reading over again what I said about the service in the February racing review the other night, I can see that what I wrote could be seen a little as damning with faint praise. This was certainly not my intention. I enjoy the service. It has a nice feel, if you know what I mean? Dealing with bets coming through at unexpected times keeps life interesting, and believe me, it doesn't happen at all often. And what is the alternative? For Peter and his colleagues to identify what they believe to be a good bet but then not send it through to their subscribers because of a self-imposed time restraint? I don't think so, do you?
In another comment left on the blog yesterday, Mark asked me for an opinion on the Secret Betting Club. I gave a very short, minimalist reply, as I believe this would make the subject of a good post in itself. Next week I think, on that one.
Today's Action
A better day today on the nags. Winning Racing Tips took most of the plaudits by finding one winner (Henry King - Taunton - 4/1) and a placed (Furrows - Ludlow - 14/1) from three selections. Not far behind in plaudits earned terms came On The Nose who found two winners from two selections (Isn't That Lucky - Ludlow - 4/1 and Henry King - Taunton - 4/1). PJA NH also found a winner (Isn't That Lucky - Ludlow - 4/1) amongst four tips and turned a small profit. Northern Monkey Punter and Chasemaster each put up one bet apiece and both were unplaced, and ProBandit didn't find the winner of the race they played in.
PJA NH: Staked 3.25pts, +0.625pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +4pts.
Pro Bandit: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.6pts, +1.88pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Financial profit on the horses of £135.30.
The only sports bet today was struck by The Sportsman and it proved to be a winner in tonight's Premier League Darts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.1pt, +0.066pts.
Financial profit on the darts of £13.20.
Thursday 3rd March: Staked £271, +£148.62.
Week to date: Staked £1,081, +£108.02.
Month to date: Staked £951, +£87.02, roi 9.15%.
Goodnight!
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
In. Out. In. Out. Shake it all about...
Yesterday I alluded to having a concern about Shaolin Betting; something that I needed to give some thought to. It is only a concern because of an experience I had when subscribed to another service.
It has come to my attention - and I believe that this knowledge was known by many others already - that Yakir, the chap who runs the service, has been joined at SB by a chap who previously had dealings with AH Betting, another football advisory service. Now this in itself is no problem at all, of course, but in the context of what happened at AH Betting, I do have a cause for concern. My experience there was a poor one. AH were going along quite nicely thankyou, but then went through a spell which can only be described as being a period when the wheels fell off somewhat. After the event, it was said that the reason for the poor spell was disruption caused by this mysterious figure and a subsequent acrimonious split.
I am not going to pretend to even begin to know what actually happened. The ins and out are none of my business. Whatever happened though did affect my betting performance as the service's results level declined, and you can see why I may be a little cautious now with regard Shaolin. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.
I believe that SB have been approached by independent analysers/reviewers of the service, and the feedback from Yakir is that his new colleague is having no input at all into the selection process of the tips, but is simply helping out with the admin side of the service. In this light, it could be that this is actually a very positive thing for SB and it's subscribers. We have discussed in earlier posts on this blog the dangers of an expanding service being overwhelmed by increased admin levels as a consequence of success and how this may adversely affect the tipsters ability to concentrate on what they do best, ie. find value-priced winners. Ian from Football Betting Index quite rightly (in my opinion) pointed out that the ideal set up for a tipping service is to have someone to work as the tipster and someone else to "run" the service. I do wonder if this set up, implemented last year by On The Oche, is behind that service's recent upturn in performance.
So, what to do? Under the circumstances, I have decided to essentially run Shaolin Betting on a "trial" basis until the end of the season. This means halving the stakes to £50/point. I emphasise that this decision has not been based in any way at all on performance levels. I am making it as I think it fair to accept Yakir's explanation at face value (as there is no reason to do otherwise), but I want to assure myself that the problems that AH Betting experienced are not repeated, because if they were, it would be to the detriment of my betting bank. One thing I have learned about betting...you cannot lose by being cautious. If, as I hope, things are fine over the next couple of months, then I can go into next season with every confidence in the potential of Shaolin Betting as an ongoing part of the portfolio. Let's hope that is the case.
Now, I have a confession to make. An admission, as it were.
Last week we discussed on here the dropping of Sports Investor from the portfolio. I didn't back the weekend's selections and missed out on about a point of profit. Last night I read the SBC's thoughts on the service and after making a point about how fine the margins are with this service this season between making a profit and a loss, I have decided to reinstate it to my portfolio. I don't wish to go into more detail about the comments made by the SBC because it is not my material to reproduce; suffice to say that they made me look at things from a different perspective. As a result I shall follow the selections until the end of the season and reassess then.
Is this simply making a pig's ear of things (quite possibly!), or is it making a decision for the best reasons at the time but not being too stubborn to refuse to listen to an alternative point of view? I prefer to think I fall into the latter category! I'm not sure everyone would agree.
Today's Action
Not much joy with the racing today. Only ProBandit found a winner (Pelmanism - Kempton - 5/1) but it was only enough to ensure the service broke even. Northern Monkey Punter, On The Nose, and Chasemaster each failed to provide a return.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, no profit/loss.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Financial loss on the football of £75.
Football Elite had their second loser of midweek tonight. After all the rigmarole, the Sports Investor bet merely returned stakes, and Football Investor's one bet was a winner.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, +1.46pts.
Sports Investor: Staked 1pt, no profit/loss.
Financial loss on the football of £78.10.
Wednesday 2nd March: Staked £350, -£153.10.
Week to date: Staked £810, -£40.60.
Month to date: Staked £680, -£61.60, roi -9.05%.
It has come to my attention - and I believe that this knowledge was known by many others already - that Yakir, the chap who runs the service, has been joined at SB by a chap who previously had dealings with AH Betting, another football advisory service. Now this in itself is no problem at all, of course, but in the context of what happened at AH Betting, I do have a cause for concern. My experience there was a poor one. AH were going along quite nicely thankyou, but then went through a spell which can only be described as being a period when the wheels fell off somewhat. After the event, it was said that the reason for the poor spell was disruption caused by this mysterious figure and a subsequent acrimonious split.
I am not going to pretend to even begin to know what actually happened. The ins and out are none of my business. Whatever happened though did affect my betting performance as the service's results level declined, and you can see why I may be a little cautious now with regard Shaolin. Once bitten, twice shy and all that.
I believe that SB have been approached by independent analysers/reviewers of the service, and the feedback from Yakir is that his new colleague is having no input at all into the selection process of the tips, but is simply helping out with the admin side of the service. In this light, it could be that this is actually a very positive thing for SB and it's subscribers. We have discussed in earlier posts on this blog the dangers of an expanding service being overwhelmed by increased admin levels as a consequence of success and how this may adversely affect the tipsters ability to concentrate on what they do best, ie. find value-priced winners. Ian from Football Betting Index quite rightly (in my opinion) pointed out that the ideal set up for a tipping service is to have someone to work as the tipster and someone else to "run" the service. I do wonder if this set up, implemented last year by On The Oche, is behind that service's recent upturn in performance.
So, what to do? Under the circumstances, I have decided to essentially run Shaolin Betting on a "trial" basis until the end of the season. This means halving the stakes to £50/point. I emphasise that this decision has not been based in any way at all on performance levels. I am making it as I think it fair to accept Yakir's explanation at face value (as there is no reason to do otherwise), but I want to assure myself that the problems that AH Betting experienced are not repeated, because if they were, it would be to the detriment of my betting bank. One thing I have learned about betting...you cannot lose by being cautious. If, as I hope, things are fine over the next couple of months, then I can go into next season with every confidence in the potential of Shaolin Betting as an ongoing part of the portfolio. Let's hope that is the case.
Now, I have a confession to make. An admission, as it were.
Last week we discussed on here the dropping of Sports Investor from the portfolio. I didn't back the weekend's selections and missed out on about a point of profit. Last night I read the SBC's thoughts on the service and after making a point about how fine the margins are with this service this season between making a profit and a loss, I have decided to reinstate it to my portfolio. I don't wish to go into more detail about the comments made by the SBC because it is not my material to reproduce; suffice to say that they made me look at things from a different perspective. As a result I shall follow the selections until the end of the season and reassess then.
Is this simply making a pig's ear of things (quite possibly!), or is it making a decision for the best reasons at the time but not being too stubborn to refuse to listen to an alternative point of view? I prefer to think I fall into the latter category! I'm not sure everyone would agree.
Today's Action
Not much joy with the racing today. Only ProBandit found a winner (Pelmanism - Kempton - 5/1) but it was only enough to ensure the service broke even. Northern Monkey Punter, On The Nose, and Chasemaster each failed to provide a return.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, no profit/loss.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.25pts, -0.25pts.
Financial loss on the football of £75.
Football Elite had their second loser of midweek tonight. After all the rigmarole, the Sports Investor bet merely returned stakes, and Football Investor's one bet was a winner.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Football Investor: Staked 1pt, +1.46pts.
Sports Investor: Staked 1pt, no profit/loss.
Financial loss on the football of £78.10.
Wednesday 2nd March: Staked £350, -£153.10.
Week to date: Staked £810, -£40.60.
Month to date: Staked £680, -£61.60, roi -9.05%.
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
February Football Review
Righty-ho. February's football...
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +6.55pts, roi 46.78% (Staked 33pts, -4.281pts, roi -12.97%). From being bottom of the footballing class (well, any class, actually) in January, Football Elite made it to the top in February. I must say, I was pleased to see it perform strongly after advocating sticking with it and not altering the staking when going through that dreaful run last month. Obviously on the calendar year the service is still down, but it was interesting to note from the recent update email that the roi from the beginning of the season is just short of a very respectable 13%. It is not the 20% returns achieved in previous seasons, but nevertheless, I'd take 13% in an under par season. There is a real test for FE now though, I think. Historically, I don't see the end part of the season being particularly strong, so fingers crossed Matt can make some further profit between now and May.
Skeeve: Staked 111pts, +24.284pts, roi 21.87% (Staked 198pts, +37.144pts, roi 18.75%). Another great month for the non-league specialist. Please note though that my figures may not coincide with official figures from Skeeve himself as I include the results from the 'Late BSS' service within my results. I also account for these picks as being level staked at four points per bet which is consistent with the four points staked as standard on the main service selections. I must admit the service took a little getting used to at first and back in the autumn it was taking me much too long to get the bets on, resulting in missing prices. Now though, I have worked out my methodology, I can get on quicker, and I'm pleased with the service. It would take something pretty disastrous to happen between now and the end of the season for Skeeve not to be an important part of the portfolio next season.
Strike Zone: Staked 26pts, +1.376pts, roi 5.29% (Staked 62pts, +3.65pts, roi 5.88%). A service like Strike Zone appeals to me on a personal level because I don't like lengthy losing runs. Therefore, a high strike rate service like this one should have a little niche in my portfolio. But, and here's the thing, can I justify an roi of just over 5% in a service that has produced a win strike rate of 61.5%? The answer to that, I would think, would very much depend on personal outlook. Trouble is, I'm not sure what mine is just yet! No decision necessary until the end of the season though, so plenty of mulling time available.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.45pts, +0.065pts, roi 4.48% (Staked 3.36pts, +0.532pts, roi 15.83%). A bit of a conundrum here, too. A more than acceptable roi year to date, a nice high win ratio, but a service that is being severely understaked. The staking levels over the last couple of months does seem to be much lower than the historical average but there is a complication. The nature of the markets targeted and the bookmakers utilised (eg. BlueSquare, Skybet) means that even if I decided to up the stakes, I would face the problem of getting on. It is not unusual to have to split stakes already between different accounts so I'm not at all sure how feasible raising stakes is with The Sportsman. Another that I will have to review at the end of the season. I really hope a solution can be found.
Football Investor: Staked 69pts, -12.68pts, roi -18.37% (Staked 140pts, -6.155pts, roi -4.39%). Not much to say - poor month but not every month can be a good one. Nature of the odds played at makes losing runs inevitable. This month's performance disappointing but nothing at all to worry about. Let's see what March brings.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 15pts, -2.22pts, -14.8% (Staked 18pts, -0.455pts, roi -2.52%). A bit to think about here. More tomorrow.
Sports Investor: Staked 7pts, -2.085pts, roi -29.78% (Staked 16pts, -1.498pts, roi -9.36%). Obviously stopped following this month, but you just never know...it might yet make a comeback!
Today's Action
A very, very quiet day's racing today with only two bets. The On The Nose selection lost and Chasemaster's each way selection finished third at 5/1 to return stakes.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, nil returns/losses.
Financial loss on the racing of £10.
On to the football and with impeccable timing - bearing in mind the accolades for the service above - Football Elite's bet today was a loser. Better for Football Investor though (2/4) and Strike Zone (2/2) and between them they ensured a small profit.
Football Investor: Staked 4pts, +2.1pts.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, +1.95pts.
Financial profit on the football of £26.50.
Tuesday 1st March: Staked £330, +£16.50.
Week to date: Staked £460, +£112.50.
Month to date: Staked £330, +£16.50, roi 5%.
That's the reviews of February done - let's concentrate now on looking forward into March.
Football Elite: Staked 14pts, +6.55pts, roi 46.78% (Staked 33pts, -4.281pts, roi -12.97%). From being bottom of the footballing class (well, any class, actually) in January, Football Elite made it to the top in February. I must say, I was pleased to see it perform strongly after advocating sticking with it and not altering the staking when going through that dreaful run last month. Obviously on the calendar year the service is still down, but it was interesting to note from the recent update email that the roi from the beginning of the season is just short of a very respectable 13%. It is not the 20% returns achieved in previous seasons, but nevertheless, I'd take 13% in an under par season. There is a real test for FE now though, I think. Historically, I don't see the end part of the season being particularly strong, so fingers crossed Matt can make some further profit between now and May.
Skeeve: Staked 111pts, +24.284pts, roi 21.87% (Staked 198pts, +37.144pts, roi 18.75%). Another great month for the non-league specialist. Please note though that my figures may not coincide with official figures from Skeeve himself as I include the results from the 'Late BSS' service within my results. I also account for these picks as being level staked at four points per bet which is consistent with the four points staked as standard on the main service selections. I must admit the service took a little getting used to at first and back in the autumn it was taking me much too long to get the bets on, resulting in missing prices. Now though, I have worked out my methodology, I can get on quicker, and I'm pleased with the service. It would take something pretty disastrous to happen between now and the end of the season for Skeeve not to be an important part of the portfolio next season.
Strike Zone: Staked 26pts, +1.376pts, roi 5.29% (Staked 62pts, +3.65pts, roi 5.88%). A service like Strike Zone appeals to me on a personal level because I don't like lengthy losing runs. Therefore, a high strike rate service like this one should have a little niche in my portfolio. But, and here's the thing, can I justify an roi of just over 5% in a service that has produced a win strike rate of 61.5%? The answer to that, I would think, would very much depend on personal outlook. Trouble is, I'm not sure what mine is just yet! No decision necessary until the end of the season though, so plenty of mulling time available.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.45pts, +0.065pts, roi 4.48% (Staked 3.36pts, +0.532pts, roi 15.83%). A bit of a conundrum here, too. A more than acceptable roi year to date, a nice high win ratio, but a service that is being severely understaked. The staking levels over the last couple of months does seem to be much lower than the historical average but there is a complication. The nature of the markets targeted and the bookmakers utilised (eg. BlueSquare, Skybet) means that even if I decided to up the stakes, I would face the problem of getting on. It is not unusual to have to split stakes already between different accounts so I'm not at all sure how feasible raising stakes is with The Sportsman. Another that I will have to review at the end of the season. I really hope a solution can be found.
Football Investor: Staked 69pts, -12.68pts, roi -18.37% (Staked 140pts, -6.155pts, roi -4.39%). Not much to say - poor month but not every month can be a good one. Nature of the odds played at makes losing runs inevitable. This month's performance disappointing but nothing at all to worry about. Let's see what March brings.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 15pts, -2.22pts, -14.8% (Staked 18pts, -0.455pts, roi -2.52%). A bit to think about here. More tomorrow.
Sports Investor: Staked 7pts, -2.085pts, roi -29.78% (Staked 16pts, -1.498pts, roi -9.36%). Obviously stopped following this month, but you just never know...it might yet make a comeback!
Today's Action
A very, very quiet day's racing today with only two bets. The On The Nose selection lost and Chasemaster's each way selection finished third at 5/1 to return stakes.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, nil returns/losses.
Financial loss on the racing of £10.
On to the football and with impeccable timing - bearing in mind the accolades for the service above - Football Elite's bet today was a loser. Better for Football Investor though (2/4) and Strike Zone (2/2) and between them they ensured a small profit.
Football Investor: Staked 4pts, +2.1pts.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, +1.95pts.
Financial profit on the football of £26.50.
Tuesday 1st March: Staked £330, +£16.50.
Week to date: Staked £460, +£112.50.
Month to date: Staked £330, +£16.50, roi 5%.
That's the reviews of February done - let's concentrate now on looking forward into March.
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