Just a typical weekend round up, tonight. Will be same tomorrow night, too.
Don't know why, but it feels like I escaped a little today. Pretty mediocre day on the horses, but countered by a solid day with the football. Not complaining at all. Just feels like I dodged a bullet today for some reason.
Today's Action
I took a calculated risk with the main 4PA selection today, Horseradish. I split my stake, putting half on at the best available odds of 9/1 with Hills, whilst taking the other half at 7s with Victor Chandler. The better odds being offered by Billy's was offset by the fact that they were only paying each way down to four places, whereas VC covered five. Horseradish came fifth, so my conservatism saved me just shy of 1.5 points. The other selection (win only) was nowhere.
A bad day at the office for On The Nose, none of whose four selections provided any return at all.
PJA NH wasn't able to produce a winner from any of their four selections either, although they did get two to place (Five Star Wilsham - Haydock - 9/1 and Snake Rave - Hexham - 7/1).
A nice winner for Northern Monkey (Rock A Doodle Do - Ascot - 11/2) but rather let down by the other three bets which were all unplaced. A small profit on the day, though.
In stark contrast to last night's tremendous success, tonight's tip from Winning Racing Tips finished well out of the frame.
Another good day for Chasemaster who really are being the model of consistency at present. Just two small bets today, one placed (Snake Rave - Hexham - 6/1) and the other won (Checkerboard - Hexham - 100/30).
4PA: Staked 2.5pts, -1.075pts.
On The Nose: Staked 3.5pts, -3.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, -1.337pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 6pts, +0.612pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts,
Chasemaster: Staked 0.375pts, +0.441pts.
Total loss on the racing of £144.91.
And so to the football.
Football Elite got Everton right but Sporting Gijon wrong for a minute loss on the day due to the prices I took.
Strike Zone has continued on the front foot after April's general success, picking two winners from two today (Newcastle and Southampton).
Exactly the same comments can be used for Football Investor too. They managed four correct from nine - Everton, Yeovil (at 3/1), Southampton, and Swindon (at 3.8/1). Excellent stuff.
Managed to get the recommended odds on the Spanish football double (Getafe & Atletic Bilbao) recommended by Sportyy today and that paid off as the bet came in.
And last but by no means least, The Sportsman landed one from two bets today but at the odds a tiny loss was the outcome.
It should be noted that Graeme at The Form Analyst had a good day, with System 8-22 at least. I had decided to stop following until next season when I realised that I wasn't at all clear as to what my strategy would be and I was dithering between larger stakes with Draw No Bet, smaller stakes win only, etc, etc. In the end, with the season's end imminent, I thought better just to stop and wait for the summer to decide exactly how to proceed. Sod's law, eh? Pleased for Graeme though.
Football Elite: Staked 2pts, -0.023pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 2pts, +1.677pts.
Football Investor: Staked 9pts, +4.345pts.
Sportyy: Staked £39, +£49.52.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.025pts.
Total financial profit on sports of £186.18.
Saturday 7th May: Staked £1,036, +£41.27.
Week to date: Staked £2,694, +£793.43.
Month to date: Staked £3,054, +£841.56, roi 27.55%.
By the way, a decent start to the Racing Trends lays. Eight out of ten successful for an roi of 9.55% (remember, I'm fixing my liability on each lay so the maximum I can lose on each bet stays the same, my profit on the successful lays will vary dependent on the BFSP odds). I mentioned in a comment to Alan after last night's post that I shan't be including the figures in the portfolio profit and loss figures. My stakes are minimal and I'm using separate money.
Right. A semi-decent bottle of red awaits...
Edit: Hey! Am I psychic or what? Read the last line of yesterday's post, and then look at the winner of the 5.00 at Punchestown today! First winner I've picked in 15 years. Price makes it worth the wait though, no?
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Friday, 6 May 2011
Dinosaur!
Yesterday I talked about what appears to be a sham masquerading as a service. Tonight I will concentrate on a service that provides information collated and delivered by utilising the skills of someone with an impeccable background.
Many of you I'm sure, have heard of or have come across Dave Renham. He is a big mover and shaker behind the Punter Profits service, is a frequent author of articles produced by Smartersig, and is the analytical power behind the Racing Trends service. And it is Racing Trends that is the focus of tonight's blog post.
If you have read any of this week's posts, you will have seen me mention the possibility of introducing some laying into the portfolio. It was Mat Hare at his constantly insightful blog (The Secret Diary of the Professional Gambler) that unwittingly pointed me in this direction. Reading about how his portfolio has been constructed made me realise that in the interests of balance, I really did need to consider introducing a laying element to my own betting.
However, things are rarely that easy, and here is a confession. I am a gambling luddite, a betting dinosaur - I like my traditional back bet. It took me a while to get used to gambling online! Laying to me is like visiting France with basic GCSE level French and trying to converse with the natives in their own tongue. You get by, but only just, and not with a great deal of confidence that you know what you are doing.
This is where Racing Trends come in. I have the opportunity to follow their daily laying advice and will be so doing from tomorrow. Then, each week, I will give you an update on how it's all been going. My initial stakes will be minimal but with a fair wind shall grow over time. Of course if things do, as hoped, go well, then I can be your live guinea pig as it were, and you can look at the service yourselves to see if it is of interest. I can see the advantages of a reliable laying service to anybody's betting provided the service providing the lays can really walk the walk.
I will tell you now that the strategy I adopt will be the one that is easiest for me to follow. Results will be recorded at BetFair SP. I will be laying the place, for a fixed liability. This means that no matter what the odds of the horse to place, the maximum that I can lose is the pre-set liability. You can read more about the various strategies available and see graphs of results by clicking on the 'Racing Trends' link top right, under the "Excellent Reads" banner. Have a look. See how I get on. Draw your own conclusions.
Today's Action
Only racing to get excited about today.
4PA tried a repeat of yesterday's successful strategy, concentrating on the front of the market but in just the two races today. The first pick was successful (Hurricane Fly - Punchestown - 4/6) which was backed on it's own, but it was also doubled up with So Young which finished unplaced.
PJA NH carried on from where it left off yesterday, picking just the one horse which duly obliged (Premier Grands Cru - Aintree - 13/2).
I really felt for Wayne at Northern Monkey. He gave four today, three of which finished second by distances which included a head (at 9/2), and a short head (at 9/2). No damage done on the day, but a serious case of what might have been.
A disappointing day for ProBandit who wasn't able to find a winner from three system bets, and a similar story from On The Nose from two selections.
Saving the best until last, Winning Racing Tips had a superb winner (Creme Anglaise - Ascot - 9/1) tonight. This service has really produced the goods recently after a fairly lengthy flat spell. Have to bear this in mind when looking at what is happening with ProBandit at the moment.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -0.333pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, +3.307pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, -0.362pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, +3.78pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £189.04.
Friday 6th May: Staked £317, +£189.04.
Week to date: Staked £1,658, +£752.16.
Month to date: Staked £2,018, +£800.29, roi 39.65%.
Right. All this talk of dinosaurs, I know your all thinking the same. All together now...Open the door, get on the floor, Everybody walk their dinosaur, BOOM BOOM ACKA LACKA BOOM BOOM...
Many of you I'm sure, have heard of or have come across Dave Renham. He is a big mover and shaker behind the Punter Profits service, is a frequent author of articles produced by Smartersig, and is the analytical power behind the Racing Trends service. And it is Racing Trends that is the focus of tonight's blog post.
If you have read any of this week's posts, you will have seen me mention the possibility of introducing some laying into the portfolio. It was Mat Hare at his constantly insightful blog (The Secret Diary of the Professional Gambler) that unwittingly pointed me in this direction. Reading about how his portfolio has been constructed made me realise that in the interests of balance, I really did need to consider introducing a laying element to my own betting.
However, things are rarely that easy, and here is a confession. I am a gambling luddite, a betting dinosaur - I like my traditional back bet. It took me a while to get used to gambling online! Laying to me is like visiting France with basic GCSE level French and trying to converse with the natives in their own tongue. You get by, but only just, and not with a great deal of confidence that you know what you are doing.
This is where Racing Trends come in. I have the opportunity to follow their daily laying advice and will be so doing from tomorrow. Then, each week, I will give you an update on how it's all been going. My initial stakes will be minimal but with a fair wind shall grow over time. Of course if things do, as hoped, go well, then I can be your live guinea pig as it were, and you can look at the service yourselves to see if it is of interest. I can see the advantages of a reliable laying service to anybody's betting provided the service providing the lays can really walk the walk.
I will tell you now that the strategy I adopt will be the one that is easiest for me to follow. Results will be recorded at BetFair SP. I will be laying the place, for a fixed liability. This means that no matter what the odds of the horse to place, the maximum that I can lose is the pre-set liability. You can read more about the various strategies available and see graphs of results by clicking on the 'Racing Trends' link top right, under the "Excellent Reads" banner. Have a look. See how I get on. Draw your own conclusions.
Today's Action
Only racing to get excited about today.
4PA tried a repeat of yesterday's successful strategy, concentrating on the front of the market but in just the two races today. The first pick was successful (Hurricane Fly - Punchestown - 4/6) which was backed on it's own, but it was also doubled up with So Young which finished unplaced.
PJA NH carried on from where it left off yesterday, picking just the one horse which duly obliged (Premier Grands Cru - Aintree - 13/2).
I really felt for Wayne at Northern Monkey. He gave four today, three of which finished second by distances which included a head (at 9/2), and a short head (at 9/2). No damage done on the day, but a serious case of what might have been.
A disappointing day for ProBandit who wasn't able to find a winner from three system bets, and a similar story from On The Nose from two selections.
Saving the best until last, Winning Racing Tips had a superb winner (Creme Anglaise - Ascot - 9/1) tonight. This service has really produced the goods recently after a fairly lengthy flat spell. Have to bear this in mind when looking at what is happening with ProBandit at the moment.
4PA: Staked 2pts, -0.333pts.
PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, +3.307pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 4pts, -0.362pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1.25pts, -1.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, +3.78pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £189.04.
Friday 6th May: Staked £317, +£189.04.
Week to date: Staked £1,658, +£752.16.
Month to date: Staked £2,018, +£800.29, roi 39.65%.
Right. All this talk of dinosaurs, I know your all thinking the same. All together now...Open the door, get on the floor, Everybody walk their dinosaur, BOOM BOOM ACKA LACKA BOOM BOOM...
Thursday, 5 May 2011
My first ever bet on the advice of a tipster was on a horse called Rustle in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham. It won. My friend (who I still go to visit on many Saturday afternoons to watch the racing) and I sat in his garden afterwards counting our winnings, about thirty quid each if I remember rightly. Had Rustle not been victorious, I wonder if I would be gambling as I am now. I had drunk from a goblet holding a heady brew - a concoction made up from winning money using "inside information". I had to send part of my winnings off to the guy who had supplied the tip. It was an odds-to service, whereby I would put money on for the tipster and send by return the profit from that part of the bet. Today I would like to think that I might be a little more circumspect but hey, back then I was young and foolish.
That year we were going to make a habit of counting winnings in the garden including when Nashwan won the Derby and we were on antepost at 8s. That's a story for another day though.
Anyway, this service, with it's entirely credible claims of having access to superb inside stable info (ahem!) gave another ten bets, none of which were at odds of greater than 2/1, and none of which won. Perhaps it was natural variance. Perhaps not! But the idea of having exclusive info appealed to this callow teenager who was possibly lacking a little worldy nouse. It was a lesson learned the hard way.
Right, what the hell am I babbling on about?
At the end of January, I subscribed to a football tipping service called Shaolin Betting. They had been the subject of a positive report written by the SBC, had consistently solid if unspectacular results, and boasted a high strike rate. At a time when I was proactively looking for a service to replace the disappointing Sports Investor, they ticked a lot of the right boxes. I paid my 150 euro for 60 picks.
I got off to an ok start. Tips were accompanied by a good write-up and came through punctually. Emails were sent if there was no bet or informing members when they should next expect a tip to arrive. After that initial period, performance wasn't quite so good, but certainly nothing disastrous. Nothing to cause concern at all. But then news reached me that a chap known as Petar (who it is alleged also operates under a number of pseudonyms) had joined Shaolin, albeit in a purely administrative capacity. Yeah, right! If performance wasn't a worry, this was. You see I had come across this Petar chap before, at AH Betting, another once promising service seemingly adversley effected by Petar's machinations.
So, not being quite as foolish as I had been at the time of backing Rustle and then ten losers, I thought it wise to stop following with money, at least temporarily. I would reassess in the summer. Simples.
Or not. There hasn't been an email from Shaolin, heaven forbid an actual tip, for quite some weeks. An email that I sent to them has not been replied to either. I may be more Inspector Clouseau than Sherlock Holmes, but this is striking me as being a little fishy. Things aren't looking good, are they?
What struck me with this episode though, is how difficult it is to find good, reliable and honest services. Even with various proofing bodies now doing their best to deshark the shark invested pool in which we poor punters swim, it is still very easy to be sucked into places we rather wouldn't be. Shaolin, as previously mentioned, had been reported favourably by the SBC and my reading of the report was that here was a potential Hall of Fame member. The other thing I have read recently which in the context of this story makes even more sense is on Kodagira's blog. Kodagira pointed out that for the existence of an edge claimed by a particular service to be particularly trustworthy, more than one year's results were necessary before hard conclusions in which we could have real confidence could be drawn. A fair point in itself, but one that increases in validation if adding to the equation the ethics and honesty of a service.
So what lessons can be learnt?
First, that when choosing a service to follow, there is so much more to the decision making process than headline performance levels. Second lesson to learn is that reputation means a lot, and proof of ethical principles guiding the running of the service is paramount. And thirdly, 'once bitten twice shy' is a useful aphorism to remember. If someone has done the dirty once, don't give them a chance to repeat the trick. To be ripped off by one service may be regarded as a misfortune, but to be ripped off by the same person twice looks like carelessness. Looks like I was careless. Don't you be the same.
Today's Action
One of the better days. 4PA sprung into action, advising win bets on three short favourites in the three big races (Await The Dawn - Chester - Evens, Quevega - Punchestown - 5/6, and Captain Chris - Punchestown - Evens). Not their usual style but all three winning was nice, especially as 4PA also advised members to back the win treble in addition to the single bets.
I have mentioned that there have been recent signs of a return to form for PJA NH and today that impression was supported by the fact that two winners were found (Kylenoe Fairy - Newton Abbott - 14/1 and Life Of A Luso - Newton Abbott - 15/2).
Chasemaster's consistent form continued with another winner (Cullahill - Wincanton - 11/8) but that is really only half the story. They also advised Oranger at Newton Abbott, a horse that I backed at 28/1 but which went off at 15/2. It didn't place but that sort of market move suggests that Chasemaster picked up on something very early, but not only that, they also advised a successful lay in the race. This essentially provided a 'free' bet on the gambled on Oranger, at a fantastic price. That is a clever strategy, and having mentioned this the other day, following the lays has to be a positive move now. Time to bit the bullet, me thinks.
On The Nose also provided a little profit by picking one winner from three (Lexi's Hero - Chester - 4/1).
ProBandit managed a winner (an NQ bet) which more than covered the losses from the two system bets in the same race (Mymumsaysimthebest - Goodwood - 11/2) but a small loss overall on the day as Captain Bertie disappointed in the opener at Chester.
No luck for Northern Monkey's one selection today.
4PA: Staked 5pts, +9.106pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +7pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, +0.437pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +0.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -0.375pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Total profit on the racing of £595.32.
Just one very small bet on a big outsider in today's tennis from Sportyy which proved unsuccessful.
Sportyy: Staked £8, -£8.
Total loss on sports of £8.
Thursday 5th May: Staked £523, +£587.32.
Week to date: Staked £1,341, +£563.12.
Month to date: Staked £1,701, +£611.25, roi 35.93%.
Finally, you have heard me mentioning laying a couple of times recently. Well, tune in tomorrow for some news in this regard. It also represents a development of the blog - a first small step towards growing and developing this place in a way that hopefully will benefit everyone. See you then.
That year we were going to make a habit of counting winnings in the garden including when Nashwan won the Derby and we were on antepost at 8s. That's a story for another day though.
Anyway, this service, with it's entirely credible claims of having access to superb inside stable info (ahem!) gave another ten bets, none of which were at odds of greater than 2/1, and none of which won. Perhaps it was natural variance. Perhaps not! But the idea of having exclusive info appealed to this callow teenager who was possibly lacking a little worldy nouse. It was a lesson learned the hard way.
Right, what the hell am I babbling on about?
At the end of January, I subscribed to a football tipping service called Shaolin Betting. They had been the subject of a positive report written by the SBC, had consistently solid if unspectacular results, and boasted a high strike rate. At a time when I was proactively looking for a service to replace the disappointing Sports Investor, they ticked a lot of the right boxes. I paid my 150 euro for 60 picks.
I got off to an ok start. Tips were accompanied by a good write-up and came through punctually. Emails were sent if there was no bet or informing members when they should next expect a tip to arrive. After that initial period, performance wasn't quite so good, but certainly nothing disastrous. Nothing to cause concern at all. But then news reached me that a chap known as Petar (who it is alleged also operates under a number of pseudonyms) had joined Shaolin, albeit in a purely administrative capacity. Yeah, right! If performance wasn't a worry, this was. You see I had come across this Petar chap before, at AH Betting, another once promising service seemingly adversley effected by Petar's machinations.
So, not being quite as foolish as I had been at the time of backing Rustle and then ten losers, I thought it wise to stop following with money, at least temporarily. I would reassess in the summer. Simples.
Or not. There hasn't been an email from Shaolin, heaven forbid an actual tip, for quite some weeks. An email that I sent to them has not been replied to either. I may be more Inspector Clouseau than Sherlock Holmes, but this is striking me as being a little fishy. Things aren't looking good, are they?
What struck me with this episode though, is how difficult it is to find good, reliable and honest services. Even with various proofing bodies now doing their best to deshark the shark invested pool in which we poor punters swim, it is still very easy to be sucked into places we rather wouldn't be. Shaolin, as previously mentioned, had been reported favourably by the SBC and my reading of the report was that here was a potential Hall of Fame member. The other thing I have read recently which in the context of this story makes even more sense is on Kodagira's blog. Kodagira pointed out that for the existence of an edge claimed by a particular service to be particularly trustworthy, more than one year's results were necessary before hard conclusions in which we could have real confidence could be drawn. A fair point in itself, but one that increases in validation if adding to the equation the ethics and honesty of a service.
So what lessons can be learnt?
First, that when choosing a service to follow, there is so much more to the decision making process than headline performance levels. Second lesson to learn is that reputation means a lot, and proof of ethical principles guiding the running of the service is paramount. And thirdly, 'once bitten twice shy' is a useful aphorism to remember. If someone has done the dirty once, don't give them a chance to repeat the trick. To be ripped off by one service may be regarded as a misfortune, but to be ripped off by the same person twice looks like carelessness. Looks like I was careless. Don't you be the same.
Today's Action
One of the better days. 4PA sprung into action, advising win bets on three short favourites in the three big races (Await The Dawn - Chester - Evens, Quevega - Punchestown - 5/6, and Captain Chris - Punchestown - Evens). Not their usual style but all three winning was nice, especially as 4PA also advised members to back the win treble in addition to the single bets.
I have mentioned that there have been recent signs of a return to form for PJA NH and today that impression was supported by the fact that two winners were found (Kylenoe Fairy - Newton Abbott - 14/1 and Life Of A Luso - Newton Abbott - 15/2).
Chasemaster's consistent form continued with another winner (Cullahill - Wincanton - 11/8) but that is really only half the story. They also advised Oranger at Newton Abbott, a horse that I backed at 28/1 but which went off at 15/2. It didn't place but that sort of market move suggests that Chasemaster picked up on something very early, but not only that, they also advised a successful lay in the race. This essentially provided a 'free' bet on the gambled on Oranger, at a fantastic price. That is a clever strategy, and having mentioned this the other day, following the lays has to be a positive move now. Time to bit the bullet, me thinks.
On The Nose also provided a little profit by picking one winner from three (Lexi's Hero - Chester - 4/1).
ProBandit managed a winner (an NQ bet) which more than covered the losses from the two system bets in the same race (Mymumsaysimthebest - Goodwood - 11/2) but a small loss overall on the day as Captain Bertie disappointed in the opener at Chester.
No luck for Northern Monkey's one selection today.
4PA: Staked 5pts, +9.106pts.
PJA NH: Staked 2.75pts, +7pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.75pts, +0.437pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, +0.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -0.375pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Total profit on the racing of £595.32.
Just one very small bet on a big outsider in today's tennis from Sportyy which proved unsuccessful.
Sportyy: Staked £8, -£8.
Total loss on sports of £8.
Thursday 5th May: Staked £523, +£587.32.
Week to date: Staked £1,341, +£563.12.
Month to date: Staked £1,701, +£611.25, roi 35.93%.
Finally, you have heard me mentioning laying a couple of times recently. Well, tune in tomorrow for some news in this regard. It also represents a development of the blog - a first small step towards growing and developing this place in a way that hopefully will benefit everyone. See you then.
Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Done and dusted.
Let's see if we can't tie up April tonight, and then we can move on. There are one or two topics I want to explore properly and sooner rather than later, one revolving around one of the services I subscribed to not so long ago. I covered the services that I had things to say about the night before last anyway, so I can keep it brief with the remainder.
PJA NH: Staked 51.75pts, -4.036pts, roi -7.8% (Staked 237.5pts, -42.689pts, roi -17.97%). Not been a good 2011 so far, obviously. Signs of a return to form though and the record would look a touch better as I missed a 13/2 winner (plus a couple of losers so not a huge discrepancy). The AW and Flat services are going well, I believe. Let's hope the NH follows suit.
Northern Monkey: Staked 28.25pts, +3.558pts, roi 12.59% (Staked 126.25pts, -6.35pts, roi -5.03%). Still not quite reached overall profit with Northern Monkey but I'm sure it's only a matter of time. Good, solid month. Not much more to say.
On The Nose: Staked 46.25pts, -4.441pts, -9.6% (Staked 192.5pts, +42.922pts, roi 22.29%). Nondescript month. Great year to date.
And the football/sports...
Football Elite: Staked 12pts, -1.64pts, roi -13.66% (Staked 60pts, -12.266pts, roi -20.44%). Let's hope the antepost bets are landed to rescue something from a relatively poor season. Still a mainstay for next season.
Strike Zone: Staked 19pts, +4.593pts, roi 24.17% (Staked 100pts, +13.34pts, roi 13.34%). Great month. Considered raising the stakes bearing in mind the very high strike rate, but if I did so I would end up staking considerably more than the other football services and I don't want that imbalance. ROI is beginning to get seriously healthy.
Football Investor: Staked 68pts, +23.019pts, roi 33.85% (Staked 277pts, +22.854pts, roi 8.25%). Brilliant month and that's with me missing out on about five points from a couple of days missed. Had had a concern about getting the bets on on the Friday night next season, but with the sharing of the workload, no longer a problem.
Skeeve: Staked 22pts, -18pts, roi -81.81% (Staked 301pts, +55.847pts, roi 18.55%). Due a poor month. Got one. Easy to forgive. Looking forward to next season, although it will be without the late BSS service as it is being discontinued, I believe.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.15pts, +0.682pts, roi 59.3% (Staked 6.348pts, +2.331pts, roi 36.72%). Coming strong now after a bit of a standstill first half of the season. Nice high strike rate and really enjoying it at present.
The Football Analyst: Staked 14pts, -12.333pts, roi -88.09%. Only one word relevant here..."Draw". Been a nightmare month for Graeme but really, I know luck should even itself out, but it certainly didn't in the space of this month. Definite place in the portfolio next season but will leave Graeme to his research over the summer before deciding on strategy.
Sportyy: Staked £950, -£185.14, roi -19.48%. My biggest fear re. Sportyy was getting anywhere decent odds on the picks. I averaged 95% of the recommended price, which I'm more than happy with.
And that's it. I know these end of month reviews perhaps aren't everybody's cup of tea. If anyone has any strong feelings either for or against, leave a comment. Things can be changed, you know.
Today's Action
Better than yesterday. ProBandit played in two races and found the winner of each (Lily's Angel - Chester - 7/4, York Glory - Southwell - 5/4). Northern Monkey had just the one bet (given yesterday) which was Overturn (11/2), the impressive winner of the Chester Cup. Chasemaster called one from three right (Devil Water - Kelso - 5/1). PJA NH had no winners (but one placed) from two, and On The Nose managed no return from two.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, +1.787pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.337pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, +0.406pts.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Total profit on the racing of £110.75.
Sportyy gave two tennis picks today, one of which won for a small profit.
Sportyy: Staked £106, +£12.95.
Total profit on the sports of £12.95.
Wednesday 4th May: Staked £316, +£123.70.
Week to date: Staked £818, -£24.20.
Month to date: Staked £1,178, +£23.93, roi 2.03%.
PJA NH: Staked 51.75pts, -4.036pts, roi -7.8% (Staked 237.5pts, -42.689pts, roi -17.97%). Not been a good 2011 so far, obviously. Signs of a return to form though and the record would look a touch better as I missed a 13/2 winner (plus a couple of losers so not a huge discrepancy). The AW and Flat services are going well, I believe. Let's hope the NH follows suit.
Northern Monkey: Staked 28.25pts, +3.558pts, roi 12.59% (Staked 126.25pts, -6.35pts, roi -5.03%). Still not quite reached overall profit with Northern Monkey but I'm sure it's only a matter of time. Good, solid month. Not much more to say.
On The Nose: Staked 46.25pts, -4.441pts, -9.6% (Staked 192.5pts, +42.922pts, roi 22.29%). Nondescript month. Great year to date.
And the football/sports...
Football Elite: Staked 12pts, -1.64pts, roi -13.66% (Staked 60pts, -12.266pts, roi -20.44%). Let's hope the antepost bets are landed to rescue something from a relatively poor season. Still a mainstay for next season.
Strike Zone: Staked 19pts, +4.593pts, roi 24.17% (Staked 100pts, +13.34pts, roi 13.34%). Great month. Considered raising the stakes bearing in mind the very high strike rate, but if I did so I would end up staking considerably more than the other football services and I don't want that imbalance. ROI is beginning to get seriously healthy.
Football Investor: Staked 68pts, +23.019pts, roi 33.85% (Staked 277pts, +22.854pts, roi 8.25%). Brilliant month and that's with me missing out on about five points from a couple of days missed. Had had a concern about getting the bets on on the Friday night next season, but with the sharing of the workload, no longer a problem.
Skeeve: Staked 22pts, -18pts, roi -81.81% (Staked 301pts, +55.847pts, roi 18.55%). Due a poor month. Got one. Easy to forgive. Looking forward to next season, although it will be without the late BSS service as it is being discontinued, I believe.
The Sportsman: Staked 1.15pts, +0.682pts, roi 59.3% (Staked 6.348pts, +2.331pts, roi 36.72%). Coming strong now after a bit of a standstill first half of the season. Nice high strike rate and really enjoying it at present.
The Football Analyst: Staked 14pts, -12.333pts, roi -88.09%. Only one word relevant here..."Draw". Been a nightmare month for Graeme but really, I know luck should even itself out, but it certainly didn't in the space of this month. Definite place in the portfolio next season but will leave Graeme to his research over the summer before deciding on strategy.
Sportyy: Staked £950, -£185.14, roi -19.48%. My biggest fear re. Sportyy was getting anywhere decent odds on the picks. I averaged 95% of the recommended price, which I'm more than happy with.
And that's it. I know these end of month reviews perhaps aren't everybody's cup of tea. If anyone has any strong feelings either for or against, leave a comment. Things can be changed, you know.
Today's Action
Better than yesterday. ProBandit played in two races and found the winner of each (Lily's Angel - Chester - 7/4, York Glory - Southwell - 5/4). Northern Monkey had just the one bet (given yesterday) which was Overturn (11/2), the impressive winner of the Chester Cup. Chasemaster called one from three right (Devil Water - Kelso - 5/1). PJA NH had no winners (but one placed) from two, and On The Nose managed no return from two.
ProBandit: Staked 1.75pts, +1.787pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.337pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.625pts, +0.406pts.
PJA NH: Staked 1.5pts, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Total profit on the racing of £110.75.
Sportyy gave two tennis picks today, one of which won for a small profit.
Sportyy: Staked £106, +£12.95.
Total profit on the sports of £12.95.
Wednesday 4th May: Staked £316, +£123.70.
Week to date: Staked £818, -£24.20.
Month to date: Staked £1,178, +£23.93, roi 2.03%.
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Each to their own...
I see The Special One was pontificating again last night in his own inimitable style. It's what happens when people pander to an oversized ego. Sarcasm dripped of the screen as the truth failed to get in the way of a good paragraph. But regardless, the monthly reviews are here to stay...
Today's Action
Not such a good day. 4PA limited themselves to just the one bet, a loser and a point lost. Pro Bandit got one to place but hit two losers. On The Nose found the only winner (Quito de la Rocque - Punchestown - 7/2).
Total loss on the racing of £43.41.
Sportyy had a bad day with two losing bets and the same for The Sportsman.
Total loss on sports of £127.
Tuesday 3rd May: Staked £237, -£170.41.
Week to date: Staked £502, -£147.90.
Month to date: Staked £862, -£99.77, roi -11.57%.
Today's Action
Not such a good day. 4PA limited themselves to just the one bet, a loser and a point lost. Pro Bandit got one to place but hit two losers. On The Nose found the only winner (Quito de la Rocque - Punchestown - 7/2).
Total loss on the racing of £43.41.
Sportyy had a bad day with two losing bets and the same for The Sportsman.
Total loss on sports of £127.
Tuesday 3rd May: Staked £237, -£170.41.
Week to date: Staked £502, -£147.90.
Month to date: Staked £862, -£99.77, roi -11.57%.
Monday, 2 May 2011
April Review #1
No review of the month just gone is going to make for happy reading. Thought I'd split the review into four parts. Figures in brackets are year to date figures.
4PA: Staked 32.5pts, -3.481pts, roi -10.71% (Staked 91pts, +2.706pts, roi 2.97%). In the most recent email from the service, they are obviously aware that the standards that were set in 2010 have not yet been matched in 2011. What I like about this chap though is that he is very matter of fact. I don't know if he means to, but when things aren't going particularly well, his emails always convey a total belief that it is only a matter of time before it all clicks into place again and a hugely impressive roi is achieved. I also get the impression from the guy who runs it that an roi around the 10% mark is hardly worth raising oneself from one's bed for and that anything short of 20% is a disappointment. Perhaps I'm reading this wrong, but I kind of like it. It inspires confidence.
Certainly the service is going to make the beginning of May interesting - we have been put on alert for a busy week with the Punchestown festival starting tomorrow and the big Chester meeting from Wednesday of this week. We could get off to a flyer or it could be a disaster. One thing is for sure, it won't be dull over the next few days.
Chasemaster: Staked 14pts, +4.796pts, roi 34.25% (Staked 50pts, +12.484pts, roi 24.96%). A real success story in 2011 so far, Chasemaster is going from strength to strength. Many, many things to like about the service, not least the low subs costs which means that it represents real value for money. There are two areas that I have not been exploiting properly though. First is the laying side of the service which seems to be profitable (I have not been recording lay results so I can't say with 100% certainty). It's a personal thing, but I have never been keen on laying and when the SBC originally reviewed Chasemaster, their recommendation at that time was to follow the 'backs' only, essentially due to a lack of data around the lays. However, when you consider that the review must have been published well over a year ago, there is much more data to hand now and I will be asking Peter if he could provide it. I'm not going to start with the lays this month, but my thoughts are that I would like to start following them in the not too distant future. Generally speaking I would like to introduce some laying to the portfolio, and this would seem to be a good place to start. The second area that I am going to change from this month is with how I stake the service. In previous monthly reviews I have written that I have been aware that I have slightly understaked Chasemaster in relation to some of the other services. I was reluctant to change during the height of the National Hunt season just in case there was a sudden increase in bets which would push me too far the other way, but I think that scenario is unlikely to arise during the summer months. Like Skeeve, I also wanted to resist upping staking levels until I was 100% comfortable with everything, and now I am. Perhaps I should have done so earlier, but you know me, conservative as ever. It's not a large rise, but should be enough to bring Chasemaster into line with the staking on the likes of ProBandit, Winning Racing Tips and 4PA and it is now a really core service of the portfolio.
ProBandit: Staked 27.375pts, -4.695pts, roi -17.15% (Staked 112pts, -4.142pts, roi -3.69%). Obviously a disappointing month for ProBandit in what has been an underwhelming year so far, but I'm still a big fan. I read an interesting article by Mr Gekko of the SBC not so long ago that pointed out that with most services, you spend an awful lot of time below the high water mark. In other words, you often have to spend months not making money from a service before a surge takes you through the high profit mark. I'm sure this is what is happening with ProBandit at the moment and I'm optimistic that we'll soon see some good profits coming in. The service may be running to stand still at the moment, but better that than be moving backwards.
There has been a lot of talk recently too about the worth of the NQ bets and the proposition that backing the System bets only will increase the roi. I'm sure there is a lot of truth in that and if that's the way folks would like to follow the service, then I'm not going to say it is the wrong approach. My own take on it is that I will continue to follow the NQ bets for the reasons Paul has given as to why he supplies them...they provide a less bumpy ride. I guess it boils down to the assertion that I would choose to take a lower roi with a smoother ride than a higher roi with more volatility. Some gambler I am! Seriously though, each to their own and I don't think there is a right or wrong way to do things in this regard.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 17.6pts, +2.817pts, roi 16% (Staked 65pts, +10.154pts, roi 15.62%). Well, Paul managed to turn April around in the last week to ten days or so with a lovely winning each way double and another winner or two on top. Trouble is I wasn't aware of them at the time as they happened in the period that Helen took over. The last involvement I had, it was looking like it was going to be a pretty poor month for WRT. There is a reason why I regard WRT as being a "core" service - consistency in approach. Good times or bad, it is the same method, week in week out. Never a deviation.
Today's Action
Pretty quiet today. ProBandit found a winner at Warwick (Aggbag - 7/2) and that proved to be the only real success of the day on the horses. WRT had their selection place at 5/1 so stakes returned. Northern Monkey has had a sticky start to the month and only found one to place from four today. On The Nose picked the same horse as one of Northern Monkey's losers as their only bet.
Total loss on the horses of £36.24.
One bet from Sportyy on the tennis today and a nice winner.
Total profit on sports of £58.75.
Monday 2nd May: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Week to date: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Month to date: Staked £625, +£70.64, roi 11.3%.
Finally today, I want to draw attention to a new addition to the blog roll on the right. I read about 'From Ireland' on Dean's 'Playing It Safe' blog last night and when Connor left a comment asking for a link exchange, I was happy to oblige. Always interesting to follow someone or a service from Day 1. I don't know Connor's intentions, whether he'll be posting up his progress on the blog, but I thought it worth a look. If not, you can still follow performance on 'Playing It Safe'.
Probably just a "results" post tomorrow - want to watch that Messi fella play for Barcelona. Got potential, that kid. One day he's going to be a good player, you mark my words. I've an eye for these things.
4PA: Staked 32.5pts, -3.481pts, roi -10.71% (Staked 91pts, +2.706pts, roi 2.97%). In the most recent email from the service, they are obviously aware that the standards that were set in 2010 have not yet been matched in 2011. What I like about this chap though is that he is very matter of fact. I don't know if he means to, but when things aren't going particularly well, his emails always convey a total belief that it is only a matter of time before it all clicks into place again and a hugely impressive roi is achieved. I also get the impression from the guy who runs it that an roi around the 10% mark is hardly worth raising oneself from one's bed for and that anything short of 20% is a disappointment. Perhaps I'm reading this wrong, but I kind of like it. It inspires confidence.
Certainly the service is going to make the beginning of May interesting - we have been put on alert for a busy week with the Punchestown festival starting tomorrow and the big Chester meeting from Wednesday of this week. We could get off to a flyer or it could be a disaster. One thing is for sure, it won't be dull over the next few days.
Chasemaster: Staked 14pts, +4.796pts, roi 34.25% (Staked 50pts, +12.484pts, roi 24.96%). A real success story in 2011 so far, Chasemaster is going from strength to strength. Many, many things to like about the service, not least the low subs costs which means that it represents real value for money. There are two areas that I have not been exploiting properly though. First is the laying side of the service which seems to be profitable (I have not been recording lay results so I can't say with 100% certainty). It's a personal thing, but I have never been keen on laying and when the SBC originally reviewed Chasemaster, their recommendation at that time was to follow the 'backs' only, essentially due to a lack of data around the lays. However, when you consider that the review must have been published well over a year ago, there is much more data to hand now and I will be asking Peter if he could provide it. I'm not going to start with the lays this month, but my thoughts are that I would like to start following them in the not too distant future. Generally speaking I would like to introduce some laying to the portfolio, and this would seem to be a good place to start. The second area that I am going to change from this month is with how I stake the service. In previous monthly reviews I have written that I have been aware that I have slightly understaked Chasemaster in relation to some of the other services. I was reluctant to change during the height of the National Hunt season just in case there was a sudden increase in bets which would push me too far the other way, but I think that scenario is unlikely to arise during the summer months. Like Skeeve, I also wanted to resist upping staking levels until I was 100% comfortable with everything, and now I am. Perhaps I should have done so earlier, but you know me, conservative as ever. It's not a large rise, but should be enough to bring Chasemaster into line with the staking on the likes of ProBandit, Winning Racing Tips and 4PA and it is now a really core service of the portfolio.
ProBandit: Staked 27.375pts, -4.695pts, roi -17.15% (Staked 112pts, -4.142pts, roi -3.69%). Obviously a disappointing month for ProBandit in what has been an underwhelming year so far, but I'm still a big fan. I read an interesting article by Mr Gekko of the SBC not so long ago that pointed out that with most services, you spend an awful lot of time below the high water mark. In other words, you often have to spend months not making money from a service before a surge takes you through the high profit mark. I'm sure this is what is happening with ProBandit at the moment and I'm optimistic that we'll soon see some good profits coming in. The service may be running to stand still at the moment, but better that than be moving backwards.
There has been a lot of talk recently too about the worth of the NQ bets and the proposition that backing the System bets only will increase the roi. I'm sure there is a lot of truth in that and if that's the way folks would like to follow the service, then I'm not going to say it is the wrong approach. My own take on it is that I will continue to follow the NQ bets for the reasons Paul has given as to why he supplies them...they provide a less bumpy ride. I guess it boils down to the assertion that I would choose to take a lower roi with a smoother ride than a higher roi with more volatility. Some gambler I am! Seriously though, each to their own and I don't think there is a right or wrong way to do things in this regard.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 17.6pts, +2.817pts, roi 16% (Staked 65pts, +10.154pts, roi 15.62%). Well, Paul managed to turn April around in the last week to ten days or so with a lovely winning each way double and another winner or two on top. Trouble is I wasn't aware of them at the time as they happened in the period that Helen took over. The last involvement I had, it was looking like it was going to be a pretty poor month for WRT. There is a reason why I regard WRT as being a "core" service - consistency in approach. Good times or bad, it is the same method, week in week out. Never a deviation.
Today's Action
Pretty quiet today. ProBandit found a winner at Warwick (Aggbag - 7/2) and that proved to be the only real success of the day on the horses. WRT had their selection place at 5/1 so stakes returned. Northern Monkey has had a sticky start to the month and only found one to place from four today. On The Nose picked the same horse as one of Northern Monkey's losers as their only bet.
Total loss on the horses of £36.24.
One bet from Sportyy on the tennis today and a nice winner.
Total profit on sports of £58.75.
Monday 2nd May: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Week to date: Staked £265, +£22.51.
Month to date: Staked £625, +£70.64, roi 11.3%.
Finally today, I want to draw attention to a new addition to the blog roll on the right. I read about 'From Ireland' on Dean's 'Playing It Safe' blog last night and when Connor left a comment asking for a link exchange, I was happy to oblige. Always interesting to follow someone or a service from Day 1. I don't know Connor's intentions, whether he'll be posting up his progress on the blog, but I thought it worth a look. If not, you can still follow performance on 'Playing It Safe'.
Probably just a "results" post tomorrow - want to watch that Messi fella play for Barcelona. Got potential, that kid. One day he's going to be a good player, you mark my words. I've an eye for these things.
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Reasons to be cheerful.
Well, back into it all again.
To very quickly bring things up to speed, April ended just shy of £1,300 down which makes the running total for 2011 a loss of £400. Not disastrous by any stretch, but blimey, it has been tough going. Strangely though, I'm going into May feeling very positive. A clawing back of nigh on £600 over the last week has probably contributed more than anything else to that feeling, but there are other reasons for taking the optimistic approach too.
At the top of that list of reasons is that last month was the worst I have ever had by quite some distance (my previous worst was a deficit of just under £500 last July), and yet somehow, by hook or by crook, psychologically I seem to have come out the other end. Looking back, I'm not too sure how, and if it wasn't for my wife placing last week's bets I would have been £1,800 down for April and couldn't say legitimately that I had come out the other end ok. Behind every (not so) great man, and all that.
What other reasons are behind the feeling that things are looking up? Well looking at the figures, it seems that the upturn has been down to a number of services stretching across the portfolio. It hasn't been as a result of one particular service going on an absolutely once-in-a-lifetime run or anything. Winning Racing Tips, Chasemaster, Football Investor, Strike Zone...they have all performed extremely well over the last week or so. But even services that made an overall loss on the month began to claw back some of those losses - ProBandit and PJA NH come to mind. Suddenly, I feel that the whole portfolio has a solid look again.
Finally, there's the new set up at TPI Towers; a sharing of the workload which as I stated earlier in the month should allow time away from it all. It also negates the need to downsize the portfolio, something that I was beginning to feel was necessary for personal reasons but far from desirable on punting grounds.
Of course, it could all go badly wrong again in May. Who knows? If so, we'll just have to absorb the losses, and go again in June. Easier said than done I guess. What I do feel though, is that some valuable lessons have been learnt over the last few weeks. Experiences that will be remembered and drawn upon when things go wrong in the future which let's face it, will happen.
Let's see what May brings.
Weekend's Action
Saturday
A very solid day's punting on the nags. On The Nose staked large on Green's Destiny (Newmarket - 13/2), PJA NH picked King Of Dubai (Uttoxeter - 8/1) and Olympian (Uttoxeter - 9/4), and Northern Monkey weighed in with Justfortheroad (Thirsk - 5/1). ProBandit also had that one, and Chasemaster had two tips and two winners - Overlaw (Uttoxeter - 4/1) and Fortysecond Street (Hexham - 9/1). Obviously there were losers amongst this lot, but overall a nice profit was returned.
And then came the football. Plaudits first...Football Investor rounded off a very good month with four from eight including Macclesfield at 6.25/1 and Eastbourne at 5/1. Eastbourne were 3-0 up in the second half, allowed their opponents to come back to 3-3, before scoring a winner in injury time! Strike Zone also produced a small profit with one of their two selections winning.
Now a last minute winner for Eastbourne was nice. What wasn't so appreciated were two very late equalisers against two of The Football Analyst's three picks which in the space of five minutes, turned a very healthy profit into a wipeout. Graeme really has had no luck at all this month, with so many of the big selections ending in draws. It has been a terrible month for the system I follow, but I know for a fact that TFA will be in my portfolio next season. More on that in the monthly review.
Finally, Football Elite had a loser.
So all in, subtracting the football losses from the racing gains, I ended up £41 up. Could have been so much better.
Sunday
Much quieter day on the gee gees today. 4PA's 1000 Guineas antepost tips both finished unplaced, but they did get a return from Hawkeyethenoo finishing in the frame in one of the handicaps at Newmarket. On The Nose found a very nice winner in Time's Up (Newmarket - 10/1). A blank day for Northern Monkey.
It was the football this afternoon where some real satisfaction was found...Football Investor and Strike Zone both indicated that Arsenal should be backed against Manchester United. In the words of Churchill (the dog, not Winston)...Oh yes!
Month to date: Staked £360, +£48.13, roi 13.36%.
Has 'Match of the Day 2' started yet?
To very quickly bring things up to speed, April ended just shy of £1,300 down which makes the running total for 2011 a loss of £400. Not disastrous by any stretch, but blimey, it has been tough going. Strangely though, I'm going into May feeling very positive. A clawing back of nigh on £600 over the last week has probably contributed more than anything else to that feeling, but there are other reasons for taking the optimistic approach too.
At the top of that list of reasons is that last month was the worst I have ever had by quite some distance (my previous worst was a deficit of just under £500 last July), and yet somehow, by hook or by crook, psychologically I seem to have come out the other end. Looking back, I'm not too sure how, and if it wasn't for my wife placing last week's bets I would have been £1,800 down for April and couldn't say legitimately that I had come out the other end ok. Behind every (not so) great man, and all that.
What other reasons are behind the feeling that things are looking up? Well looking at the figures, it seems that the upturn has been down to a number of services stretching across the portfolio. It hasn't been as a result of one particular service going on an absolutely once-in-a-lifetime run or anything. Winning Racing Tips, Chasemaster, Football Investor, Strike Zone...they have all performed extremely well over the last week or so. But even services that made an overall loss on the month began to claw back some of those losses - ProBandit and PJA NH come to mind. Suddenly, I feel that the whole portfolio has a solid look again.
Finally, there's the new set up at TPI Towers; a sharing of the workload which as I stated earlier in the month should allow time away from it all. It also negates the need to downsize the portfolio, something that I was beginning to feel was necessary for personal reasons but far from desirable on punting grounds.
Of course, it could all go badly wrong again in May. Who knows? If so, we'll just have to absorb the losses, and go again in June. Easier said than done I guess. What I do feel though, is that some valuable lessons have been learnt over the last few weeks. Experiences that will be remembered and drawn upon when things go wrong in the future which let's face it, will happen.
Let's see what May brings.
Weekend's Action
Saturday
A very solid day's punting on the nags. On The Nose staked large on Green's Destiny (Newmarket - 13/2), PJA NH picked King Of Dubai (Uttoxeter - 8/1) and Olympian (Uttoxeter - 9/4), and Northern Monkey weighed in with Justfortheroad (Thirsk - 5/1). ProBandit also had that one, and Chasemaster had two tips and two winners - Overlaw (Uttoxeter - 4/1) and Fortysecond Street (Hexham - 9/1). Obviously there were losers amongst this lot, but overall a nice profit was returned.
And then came the football. Plaudits first...Football Investor rounded off a very good month with four from eight including Macclesfield at 6.25/1 and Eastbourne at 5/1. Eastbourne were 3-0 up in the second half, allowed their opponents to come back to 3-3, before scoring a winner in injury time! Strike Zone also produced a small profit with one of their two selections winning.
Now a last minute winner for Eastbourne was nice. What wasn't so appreciated were two very late equalisers against two of The Football Analyst's three picks which in the space of five minutes, turned a very healthy profit into a wipeout. Graeme really has had no luck at all this month, with so many of the big selections ending in draws. It has been a terrible month for the system I follow, but I know for a fact that TFA will be in my portfolio next season. More on that in the monthly review.
Finally, Football Elite had a loser.
So all in, subtracting the football losses from the racing gains, I ended up £41 up. Could have been so much better.
Sunday
Much quieter day on the gee gees today. 4PA's 1000 Guineas antepost tips both finished unplaced, but they did get a return from Hawkeyethenoo finishing in the frame in one of the handicaps at Newmarket. On The Nose found a very nice winner in Time's Up (Newmarket - 10/1). A blank day for Northern Monkey.
It was the football this afternoon where some real satisfaction was found...Football Investor and Strike Zone both indicated that Arsenal should be backed against Manchester United. In the words of Churchill (the dog, not Winston)...Oh yes!
Month to date: Staked £360, +£48.13, roi 13.36%.
Has 'Match of the Day 2' started yet?
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