Straight into the weekend round-up tonight. Want to watch the footie.
Friday - Sunday Betting
Frenetic, is what this weekend has been. I got an email on Saturday from a friend of mine who essentially does what I do with gambling, saying he seemed to have spent all morning putting bets on. I know exactly what he meant. Still, when the results are good and money is made, it's a lot easier to just get on with it and it doesn't feel like a chore. Which thankfully, is where I'm at at the moment.
Northern Monkey
A lovely winner on Friday (Lily In Pink - Newbury - 12/1) and a placed horse from three selections meant a good profit moving into the weekend. Saturday saw another good win (Communicator - Chester - 11/2), but four losers on the same day meant the day finished all square.
A quick note too about Wayne's League 2 football bets, a new aspect to his service-offering he is hoping to develop. All bets are being proofed to the SBC I believe and current NMP members are receiving the selections via separate email. The information received thus far show that there is obviously a huge amount of research going into his selections and his rationale is 'Skeeve-esque' in it's detail. I'm not backing the tips with hard cash - as Wayne himself explained, there is no track record established - but will be following closely, and I wish Wayne every success. Not a bad start with two winners from two on Saturday!
On The Nose
The Judge has been crying out, pleading, and no doubt, offering sacrificial Gooners to the Gods to secure a bit of consistent dry ground. Well, now he has it, he's beginning to knock the winners in with fair regularity. No winner on Friday but a great placed effort to negate a loser and end up a point to the good (Lujeanie - Newmarket - 20/1), and then a top class Saturday. Five bets and two storming winners (Medici Time - Newmarket - 10/1 and Kiz Kulesi - Newmarket - 5/1). As if this wasn't enough, one bet on Sunday, one winner (Mince - Pontefract - 7/2). Fingers crossed the rain stays away a little longer, eh?
The Sportsman Racing
Just the one bet which lost.
Winning Racing Tips
Slowly, slowly, catchee monkee at the moment. Can't quite get the winners but consistently placing for a series of small profits. That was the case on Friday and Saturday with no bet Sunday.
The Market Examiner
This month is still proving to be a bit of a struggle. Just three bets, but none successful.
Football Elite
Cautious start to the new season from Matt, recommending just the one DNB bet which drew, so all level.
Skeeve
A loss making weekend but no real damage done. Luton beating Hyde on Friday evening got the Asian Handicaps off to a good start but profits were pegged back a little with a lower staked losing bet on the Saturday.
One Doubles bet which was a loser, and one of two correct for the Shortlist picks.
Form Lab Lite
Still struggling to gain some real momentum at present. A winner on Friday in Ireland but a loser yesterday in Norway. Was a little fortunate as I only lost a half point on a split staked match as I couldn't get reasonable odds on the other of the two bets. Very quiet and I can't imagine the service will have many weekends from here on with only two bets, and hopefully increased turnover will lead to increased profit-making.
Service X
Quite the weekend. High turnover, high strike rate doesn't really get too much better than this...14 bets, 10 wins, 1 void. The thing with this service is that every weekend there are always two or three bets I don't place because the odds have gone and don't recover sufficiently, but it doesn't really seem to matter when I'm placing so many other bets from them. This weekend, the three I missed all won but on other weekends the ones I've missed have lost so I'm not too cheesed off. How can I be when the profits come in so consistently?
The Sportsman
Just the one bet this weekend, a winner in Scotland. Not going to mention what it was as I believe Scott sees the source of the profits as a potential moneyspinner and could well go in again. Typical of this service to spot a potential angle and then exploit it successfully.
Summer Of Football
What more is there to say? Another superb weekend! Every week I say this run can't continue (and it can't, it can't) and then each weekend, more superlative stats to report. From Friday...7 bets, 6 wins!
It's been noticeable that on a couple of the bets the prices seemed to come under a little more pressure than has been the case previously. It's something that James is well aware of and is observing closely. Still managed to beat the stated odds in the email more times than not though.
Sportyy
Just one small, unsuccessful bet on Friday.
So there we are. A good weekend's punting to follow what had been a decent week preceding it. Can't carry on like this. Never does.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 31.25pts, -6.118pts, roi -19.57%
On The Nose: Staked 32.75pts, +8.3pts, roi 25.34%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.526pts, roi 17.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 6.6pts, -1.483pts, roi -22.48%
The Market Examiner: Staked 22pts, -15.8pts, roi -71.81%
Total roi -0.37%
Sports
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, +/- (+/-£), roi 0%, ROC 0%
Summer Of Football: Staked 20pts, +11.073pts,, roi 55.36%, ROC ROC 55.36%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 7pts, +1.6pts, roi 22.85%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, -5pts, roi -100%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 2pts, -0.2pts, roi -10%
Skeeve Total: Staked 14pts, -3.6pts, roi -25.71%, ROC -4.5%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.5pts, +0.133pts, roi 26.73%, ROC 2.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 18pts, -2.675pts, roi -14.86%, ROC -5.35%
Sportyy: Staked 22pts, +9.272pts, roi 42.14%, ROC 11.59%
Service X: Staked 181.2pts, +36.448pts, roi 20.11%, ROC 36.44%
Total roi 20.99%
Grand Total roi: 14.55%
Right, I'm not bitter (well, actually, perhaps just a teeny bit) but is it wrong of me to hope that RVP has a nasty collision with the corner flag necessitating surgical removal from his posterior?
Monday, 20 August 2012
Friday, 17 August 2012
Friday night bliss!
Just your typical short and to the point Friday night post tonight. The wife and kids are away, I have the Once Upon A Time In America DVD set to play, Stella in the fridge and a Beef Chop Suey on order. Oh, and a contented smile on my face.
Thursday's Betting
The third good day in a row.
Great day for On The Nose, finding two good winners from four selections made (Common Touch - Newmarket - 9/1 and Saytara - Salisbury - 7/2).
No luck for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/1).
The each way The Sportsman Racing selection came second for a very small loss, and a similar situation for Winning Racing Tips which had an each way double, one horse winning and the other finishing second.
Onto football betting. The one Form Lab Lite bet was a loser, but Service X managed three out of three for a solid profit.
Forgive me for my leaving out the month to date figures tonight. Stomach's rumbling.
Have a great weekend, all. See you the other side.
Thursday's Betting
The third good day in a row.
Great day for On The Nose, finding two good winners from four selections made (Common Touch - Newmarket - 9/1 and Saytara - Salisbury - 7/2).
No luck for Northern Monkey (0/2) or The Market Examiner (0/1).
The each way The Sportsman Racing selection came second for a very small loss, and a similar situation for Winning Racing Tips which had an each way double, one horse winning and the other finishing second.
Onto football betting. The one Form Lab Lite bet was a loser, but Service X managed three out of three for a solid profit.
Forgive me for my leaving out the month to date figures tonight. Stomach's rumbling.
Have a great weekend, all. See you the other side.
Thursday, 16 August 2012
Balance
Right then. The final part of the "How to pick a new service" series. :)
The final thing I'd like to mention is that as the portfolio has grown, I've found myself more in a situation whereby I'm looking for specific gaps to fill or for a potential new service to perform a particular function, as opposed to simply looking for a good service. I've mentioned it numerous times already, but a prime example was my joining Summer of Football, Sportyy and Form Lab Lite in June having identified a potential weakness in my portfolio; ie. a lack of turnover and diversification as a result of the majority of my football tipping services closing down for the summer. In other words, I was looking at portfolio construction from a completely different angle.
This is easier to do when you have a settled portfolio that, generally speaking, you're happy with. It's a bit like managing a football team. The team might be playing well and getting good results, but you can perhaps see that a better striker would make you an even better team and improve results still further. So as a manager, you start to look for suitable strikers playing for other teams, settle on your target, tap them up, get an arrangement in place whereby you offer the greedy bastard even more money that they can ever possibly spend, and then break the hearts of all the supporters of the team you're buying from when their star player ups and leaves citing ambition as a motive whilst conveniently forgetting that their being injured all the time contributed massively to the fact that he hadn't won any trophies in recent years.
I digress.
The point I'm making is that when I got to a certain point with the portfolio, my outlook changed from simple portfolio construction to being one more concerned with balance and practicalities. This is when you look at a service, and instead of just noting the bottom line results, you instead (taking a historical proftiability for granted) look at whether or not the expertise of the service lies within areas that your current services don't already cover, or whether the service can add something new to your portfolio in some way. If it does, then you may be onto a winner.
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Wednesday's Betting
Another decent day.
A tiny profit for Northern Monkey whose one selection finished in the frame.
A nice winner for On The Nose (Saint Thomas - Beverley - 4/1).
No success for The Market Examiner (0/1).
It was Sportyy who contributed most to the day's profit making, finding two winners from two (Raonic to bt Gasquet - 0.67/1 and Andujar to win the first set vs Tipsarevic - 4/1).
A good performance from Service X too, finding three winners from four bets.
Just one losing bet from Form Lab Lite.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -8.868pts, roi -35.47%
On The Nose: Staked 25pts, -4.775pts, roi -19.1%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 18pts, -11.8pts, roi -65.55%
Total roi -19.8%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 15.5pts, -2.145pts, roi -13.83%, ROC -4.29%
Sportyy: Staked 21pts, +10.272pts, roi 48.91%, ROC 12.84%
Service X: Staked 135.2pts, +11.953pts, roi 8.84%, ROC 11.95%
Total roi 16.66%
Grand Total roi 5.34%
The final thing I'd like to mention is that as the portfolio has grown, I've found myself more in a situation whereby I'm looking for specific gaps to fill or for a potential new service to perform a particular function, as opposed to simply looking for a good service. I've mentioned it numerous times already, but a prime example was my joining Summer of Football, Sportyy and Form Lab Lite in June having identified a potential weakness in my portfolio; ie. a lack of turnover and diversification as a result of the majority of my football tipping services closing down for the summer. In other words, I was looking at portfolio construction from a completely different angle.
This is easier to do when you have a settled portfolio that, generally speaking, you're happy with. It's a bit like managing a football team. The team might be playing well and getting good results, but you can perhaps see that a better striker would make you an even better team and improve results still further. So as a manager, you start to look for suitable strikers playing for other teams, settle on your target, tap them up, get an arrangement in place whereby you offer the greedy bastard even more money that they can ever possibly spend, and then break the hearts of all the supporters of the team you're buying from when their star player ups and leaves citing ambition as a motive whilst conveniently forgetting that their being injured all the time contributed massively to the fact that he hadn't won any trophies in recent years.
I digress.
The point I'm making is that when I got to a certain point with the portfolio, my outlook changed from simple portfolio construction to being one more concerned with balance and practicalities. This is when you look at a service, and instead of just noting the bottom line results, you instead (taking a historical proftiability for granted) look at whether or not the expertise of the service lies within areas that your current services don't already cover, or whether the service can add something new to your portfolio in some way. If it does, then you may be onto a winner.
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Wednesday's Betting
Another decent day.
A tiny profit for Northern Monkey whose one selection finished in the frame.
A nice winner for On The Nose (Saint Thomas - Beverley - 4/1).
No success for The Market Examiner (0/1).
It was Sportyy who contributed most to the day's profit making, finding two winners from two (Raonic to bt Gasquet - 0.67/1 and Andujar to win the first set vs Tipsarevic - 4/1).
A good performance from Service X too, finding three winners from four bets.
Just one losing bet from Form Lab Lite.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 25pts, -8.868pts, roi -35.47%
On The Nose: Staked 25pts, -4.775pts, roi -19.1%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 18pts, -11.8pts, roi -65.55%
Total roi -19.8%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 15.5pts, -2.145pts, roi -13.83%, ROC -4.29%
Sportyy: Staked 21pts, +10.272pts, roi 48.91%, ROC 12.84%
Service X: Staked 135.2pts, +11.953pts, roi 8.84%, ROC 11.95%
Total roi 16.66%
Grand Total roi 5.34%
Wednesday, 15 August 2012
The three Rs...Reviews. Reports. Results.
Where were we?
Shane asked about the extent to which the Secret Betting Club plays in my decision making when it comes to deciding which tipping services to subscribe to. Well, if you look at my portfolio you can see that there is only one, Service X, which is not or has not been monitored by, and/or recommended by the SBC. I mentioned yesterday that I started putting money down on The Football Analyst selections from Day 1, which of course was way before any mention of the service was made elsewhere, but they were exceptional circumstances. It is fair to say that the SBC have been tremendously influential in the way I have shaped the portfolio.
It is not now the case of simply reading a favourable review in one of the SBC newsletters and then jumping in with both Size 10s. As I alluded to yesterday, that perhaps does summarise my "strategy" in the early days, hence the mistakes made. I was a bit like a Neurosurgeon trying to remove an aneurysm using a hammer and chisel.
There have been certain things that the SBC have done that I've not fully supported (at which point I post my point of view in their forum which is a bit of a cheek, although so far they have put up with my irrascibility with an enviable patience), but one thing about the service that is irrefutable is that the standard of their service reports are extremely high. There is obviously a huge amount of work that goes into their production and by reading a report they produce, I can now be almost 100% certain whether or not that service would be right for me. Sometimes the tone of the report is very positive towards the service being reviewed, but within two paragraphs I can tell that it wouldn't ait well in my portfolio. But is that not the purpose of a subjective review? Is it not it's purpose to allow the reader to make an easy, informed decision as to whether the service should be followed or not?
My portfolio now is built. I'm happy with it, and I can't envisage any major changes anytime in the near future. Naturally if a service within it loses the number of points deposited in the "bank" for it, then it must be removed and replaced. But other than that, I'm hoping for some real stability now. Sure, one or two of the services may be dropped in the autumn, ie. those that are an exercise in increasing turnover over the summer months. I've not made any final decision on these yet other than now seeing Summer Of Football as a permanent portfolio member. But with the exception of one or two services, my portfolio is as I hope it will continue to be for months to come.
But what happens if a service does run through it's bank, or which raises it's fees to a level I don't want to pay, perhaps? Well, that's where the SBC comes into it's own again. I have first heard about many a service via the SBC newsletter; a strong review means I take a mental note that it would indeed fit well into the portfolio, it's just that I don't need to add it at that moment. In other words, I'm building a series of "reserve" services that I can slot into the portfolio if the need arises, or if I want to expand. A prime example of this is Sportyy. I had been watching the tennis tipster's results for many months, starting from the time I first read about it in the SBC newsletter. Consequently, when in late Spring I wanted a service to introduce some more intensive summer betting turnover, it was only natural for me to try this service first. The way I see it, reading the SBC reviews can keep you a step ahead of the game. There are always options.
Sometimes though, it is nice just to see bottom line results for services that are perhaps a little lower on the radar. Racingproofing.com , and Sports-tipsters.co.uk are sites on which we can find the performance being tracked of some very familiar names, but some unfamiliar too. I also look occasionally at the ProGambler site, Blogabet, and . All are useful for identifying potential future additions to the portfolio. Perhaps I'm a bit of an anorak, but I do find the occasional trawl through such sites enjoyable.
So, to answer Shane's question, the SBC do play a very large part in my thinking when it comes to selecting which services to follow. I can't help thinking that if I'd paid more heed to other advice they provide - about practicalities, cost, stress placed on bookmaker accounts etc - I would have avoided many of the mistakes I initially made. Still, you live and learn, eh?
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Tuesday's Betting
Thankyou, Scott, aka The Sportsman Racing. One very nice winner (Kyllachy Storm - Bath - 7/2) contributed most to a fine day indeed. I was fortunate in that I'd placed my bet with Hills, an account which remarkably still provides me with the Best Odds Guarantee. Always nice when this is the case and the bet you've struck drifts in price yet still wins.
Dead even for On The Nose who found one winner from four bets (Highland Duke - Bath - 3/1). No luck for The Market Examiner (0/3) though.
One right in two from Sportyy (Bogomolov to bt Nieminen - 11/8) for a tiny profit.
A winning evening for Service X with two from two, although I was only able to get half the desired stake on one bet at an acceptable price. Still, it all adds to the coffers.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 23.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -25.36%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 17pts, -10.8pts, roi -63.52%
Total roi -22.27%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 17.5pts, +6.272pts, roi 35.84%, ROC 7.84%
Service X: Staked 123.2pts, +8.567pts, roi 6.95%, ROC 8.56%
Total roi 15.48%
Grand Total roi 3.42%
I have a dilemma. I've recently got into Stephen King. Always had him down as the author of bollocks horror stories, but I picked up Carrie when on holiday at a second hand book stall for pennies and really enjoyed it. Anyway, I'm now onto The Shining, which is great, but scary. Got me hooked. But, as of tomorrow, Helen is taking the kids down to her Mothers for a few days (that's real life horror story!) leaving me all on my lonesome. In an old house. With creaky floorboards.
Let's face it, people will have died in my bedroom. It's inevitable in a house of this age. And The Shining is creepy.
I need to get a grip of myself. I'm a grown man.
Where's my teddy?
Shane asked about the extent to which the Secret Betting Club plays in my decision making when it comes to deciding which tipping services to subscribe to. Well, if you look at my portfolio you can see that there is only one, Service X, which is not or has not been monitored by, and/or recommended by the SBC. I mentioned yesterday that I started putting money down on The Football Analyst selections from Day 1, which of course was way before any mention of the service was made elsewhere, but they were exceptional circumstances. It is fair to say that the SBC have been tremendously influential in the way I have shaped the portfolio.
It is not now the case of simply reading a favourable review in one of the SBC newsletters and then jumping in with both Size 10s. As I alluded to yesterday, that perhaps does summarise my "strategy" in the early days, hence the mistakes made. I was a bit like a Neurosurgeon trying to remove an aneurysm using a hammer and chisel.
There have been certain things that the SBC have done that I've not fully supported (at which point I post my point of view in their forum which is a bit of a cheek, although so far they have put up with my irrascibility with an enviable patience), but one thing about the service that is irrefutable is that the standard of their service reports are extremely high. There is obviously a huge amount of work that goes into their production and by reading a report they produce, I can now be almost 100% certain whether or not that service would be right for me. Sometimes the tone of the report is very positive towards the service being reviewed, but within two paragraphs I can tell that it wouldn't ait well in my portfolio. But is that not the purpose of a subjective review? Is it not it's purpose to allow the reader to make an easy, informed decision as to whether the service should be followed or not?
My portfolio now is built. I'm happy with it, and I can't envisage any major changes anytime in the near future. Naturally if a service within it loses the number of points deposited in the "bank" for it, then it must be removed and replaced. But other than that, I'm hoping for some real stability now. Sure, one or two of the services may be dropped in the autumn, ie. those that are an exercise in increasing turnover over the summer months. I've not made any final decision on these yet other than now seeing Summer Of Football as a permanent portfolio member. But with the exception of one or two services, my portfolio is as I hope it will continue to be for months to come.
But what happens if a service does run through it's bank, or which raises it's fees to a level I don't want to pay, perhaps? Well, that's where the SBC comes into it's own again. I have first heard about many a service via the SBC newsletter; a strong review means I take a mental note that it would indeed fit well into the portfolio, it's just that I don't need to add it at that moment. In other words, I'm building a series of "reserve" services that I can slot into the portfolio if the need arises, or if I want to expand. A prime example of this is Sportyy. I had been watching the tennis tipster's results for many months, starting from the time I first read about it in the SBC newsletter. Consequently, when in late Spring I wanted a service to introduce some more intensive summer betting turnover, it was only natural for me to try this service first. The way I see it, reading the SBC reviews can keep you a step ahead of the game. There are always options.
Sometimes though, it is nice just to see bottom line results for services that are perhaps a little lower on the radar. Racingproofing.com , and Sports-tipsters.co.uk are sites on which we can find the performance being tracked of some very familiar names, but some unfamiliar too. I also look occasionally at the ProGambler site, Blogabet, and . All are useful for identifying potential future additions to the portfolio. Perhaps I'm a bit of an anorak, but I do find the occasional trawl through such sites enjoyable.
So, to answer Shane's question, the SBC do play a very large part in my thinking when it comes to selecting which services to follow. I can't help thinking that if I'd paid more heed to other advice they provide - about practicalities, cost, stress placed on bookmaker accounts etc - I would have avoided many of the mistakes I initially made. Still, you live and learn, eh?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday's Betting
Thankyou, Scott, aka The Sportsman Racing. One very nice winner (Kyllachy Storm - Bath - 7/2) contributed most to a fine day indeed. I was fortunate in that I'd placed my bet with Hills, an account which remarkably still provides me with the Best Odds Guarantee. Always nice when this is the case and the bet you've struck drifts in price yet still wins.
Dead even for On The Nose who found one winner from four bets (Highland Duke - Bath - 3/1). No luck for The Market Examiner (0/3) though.
One right in two from Sportyy (Bogomolov to bt Nieminen - 11/8) for a tiny profit.
A winning evening for Service X with two from two, although I was only able to get half the desired stake on one bet at an acceptable price. Still, it all adds to the coffers.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 23.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -25.36%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 2pts, +1.057pts, roi 52.88%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 17pts, -10.8pts, roi -63.52%
Total roi -22.27%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 17.5pts, +6.272pts, roi 35.84%, ROC 7.84%
Service X: Staked 123.2pts, +8.567pts, roi 6.95%, ROC 8.56%
Total roi 15.48%
Grand Total roi 3.42%
I have a dilemma. I've recently got into Stephen King. Always had him down as the author of bollocks horror stories, but I picked up Carrie when on holiday at a second hand book stall for pennies and really enjoyed it. Anyway, I'm now onto The Shining, which is great, but scary. Got me hooked. But, as of tomorrow, Helen is taking the kids down to her Mothers for a few days (that's real life horror story!) leaving me all on my lonesome. In an old house. With creaky floorboards.
Let's face it, people will have died in my bedroom. It's inevitable in a house of this age. And The Shining is creepy.
I need to get a grip of myself. I'm a grown man.
Where's my teddy?
Tuesday, 14 August 2012
Choosing new services. Science? Art? Bit of both?
Last week, Shane left the following comment on the blog:
Hello Rowan, this doesn't relate to the above piece but I have wanted to ask to you perhaps write a short blog on what you look for when selecting a new portfolio service? Do you solely rely on sources such as the Secret Betting Club appraisals before signing up, or do you work on the basis of other word of mouth?
Have found managing portfolio more suitable then making your own personal betting selections, or is this a time factor where you don't have time to do your analysis? It something I have always wondered,
And finally, could you take a look at this website www.soccerwidow.com it a porfolio site that makes selections soley on price value and not on form, through their statistical models. Price to join seems crazy but thought it be interesting to hear your opinions.
You know I havewasted written many words on this blog on the subject of judging when to evict services from the portfolio, but I haven't ever dedicated any posts to the subject of choosing which services to put into the portfolio and how I make those decisions. Over the next day or three, I'll try to address this topic. As ever, I can only give you a subjective opinion. Other people will have different methodologies I'm sure, different parameters upon which to judge the suitability of a service for themselves.
I will also take a look at the Soccer Widows website and give an opinion. A cursory glance has told me that I need to spend a bit of time on it before expressing my thoughts though, as there is a lot of information on the site to get through.
OK, the first thing I will say when it comes to choosing services is that I have learnt a huge amount through experience. I'm not embarrassed to admit that when I first started to construct my portfolio (and I use the word 'construct' very loosely here), I adopted a rather haphazard approach to the task. If a service looked good in terms of bottom line profit figures, in I'd wade like an over-enthusiastic duckling keen to impress it's parents first time in the big pond. Not surprisingly, many mistakes were made. I'd join services where I could never hope to make a profit because my stake value per point was far too low, so that even if a decent number of points profit was made, it would barely cover the cost of subscription fees. I joined services that I was simply not psychologically suited to - for someone who is naturally risk averse, having a portfolio of six services which had four services that played at long odds and for which lengthy losing runs were the norm wasn't very bright. I joined services that released their tips at what were for me, highly inconvenient times. And so on and so on. My approach had to change.
What I was obviously lacking was a clearly defined strategy. To have a strategy, you have to have an end game, a target. Figure out what your target is, and you can work backwards to work out the steps you need to take to hit it. Unfortunately it took me many months of joining and then leaving services before this realisation dawned on me. The day I did finally learn this lesson was the day I stopped making so many mistakes. Now, I think (and hope) that I can see exactly what a new service can bring to the portfolio before I jump in to subscribe. I can evaluate a service's potential strengths and weaknesses in the context of what it is I'm trying to achieve.
Having said that, for all the research that you can do, and for all the reviews you can read, sometimes you just have to follow your gut instinct. I believe in mine, and whenever I've had a particularly strong feeling about a service, I have just waded in. Perhaps the more experienced you get, the more signals you can subconsciously pick up and in fact what you put down as being your gut instinct is in fact the output from a brain that has absorbed certain details, processed them, and then spat out the results...ie. you should give this service a go. The last time this happened to me, I joined Summer Of Football. You could argue that if I was doing everything by the book, I was acting a little prematurely, but I've not had cause to regret my decision.
Other times, I've been fortunate enough to see something develop and have got to know the brains behind the scenes. Regular readers will know that this was the case with The Football Analyst. I got to know Graeme, could see what he was doing when in the process of developing his football systems, recognised that he has great analytical skills and came to the conclusion that if anyone was going to make a success of building a series of systems derived from ratings, it was him. It was a bit like going to a very impressive doctor - I knew I could put my faith in him. Hence I jumped straight in from Day 1 of TFA bets being released. No live proofing to fall back on. No incisive SBC report to read. Bang - straight in - and thank Dennis Bergkamp for that! Had I hesitated, I'd have missed out on a whole lot of profits.
The point I'm trying to make here is that thorough research, proofing, SBC reports etc are all incredibly important (in fact I'd go further than that and say that actually they are necessary if you want to get it right more times than you get it wrong), and that the ability to research and draw accurate conclusions from such material is a vitally important skill to possess when constructing a portfolio, at the end of it all, good old gut feel mixed with common sense can reap rich rewards. Sometimes, selecting the right services for you is as much art as science.
Tomorrow I'll talk about the role the SBC play, and other sources of information I use to identify services that I may want to watch with a view to subscribing at some point in the future.
But, as Bugs Bunny often said - for tonight at least - that's all folks.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's Betting
£1.36 profit. Heh!
Quiet day.
A winner for The Sportsman Racing (Stand Of Glory - Thirsk - 8/13). You know I've heard it said that you can't find value in odds on shots, but if you back a horse at 8/13 that goes off at 4/11, I'd say value has been well and truly found!
The poor run that Winning Racing Tips (0/1) are currently enduring continued with their one (admittedly lightly staked) bet went down. No joy either for The Market Examiner (0/2).
Only Sportyy in action for the Sports portfolio, suffering a very small loss with one winner from three (Andujar to bt Matosevic - 2.08/1).
Month to date figures:
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1.5pts, -0.692pts, roi -46.16%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 14pts, -7.8pts, roi -55.71%
Total roi -37.01%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 14pts, +6.21pts, roi 44.35%, ROC 7.76%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.08%
Grand Total roi -1.24%
Back tomorrow.
Hello Rowan, this doesn't relate to the above piece but I have wanted to ask to you perhaps write a short blog on what you look for when selecting a new portfolio service? Do you solely rely on sources such as the Secret Betting Club appraisals before signing up, or do you work on the basis of other word of mouth?
Have found managing portfolio more suitable then making your own personal betting selections, or is this a time factor where you don't have time to do your analysis? It something I have always wondered,
And finally, could you take a look at this website www.soccerwidow.com it a porfolio site that makes selections soley on price value and not on form, through their statistical models. Price to join seems crazy but thought it be interesting to hear your opinions.
You know I have
I will also take a look at the Soccer Widows website and give an opinion. A cursory glance has told me that I need to spend a bit of time on it before expressing my thoughts though, as there is a lot of information on the site to get through.
OK, the first thing I will say when it comes to choosing services is that I have learnt a huge amount through experience. I'm not embarrassed to admit that when I first started to construct my portfolio (and I use the word 'construct' very loosely here), I adopted a rather haphazard approach to the task. If a service looked good in terms of bottom line profit figures, in I'd wade like an over-enthusiastic duckling keen to impress it's parents first time in the big pond. Not surprisingly, many mistakes were made. I'd join services where I could never hope to make a profit because my stake value per point was far too low, so that even if a decent number of points profit was made, it would barely cover the cost of subscription fees. I joined services that I was simply not psychologically suited to - for someone who is naturally risk averse, having a portfolio of six services which had four services that played at long odds and for which lengthy losing runs were the norm wasn't very bright. I joined services that released their tips at what were for me, highly inconvenient times. And so on and so on. My approach had to change.
What I was obviously lacking was a clearly defined strategy. To have a strategy, you have to have an end game, a target. Figure out what your target is, and you can work backwards to work out the steps you need to take to hit it. Unfortunately it took me many months of joining and then leaving services before this realisation dawned on me. The day I did finally learn this lesson was the day I stopped making so many mistakes. Now, I think (and hope) that I can see exactly what a new service can bring to the portfolio before I jump in to subscribe. I can evaluate a service's potential strengths and weaknesses in the context of what it is I'm trying to achieve.
Having said that, for all the research that you can do, and for all the reviews you can read, sometimes you just have to follow your gut instinct. I believe in mine, and whenever I've had a particularly strong feeling about a service, I have just waded in. Perhaps the more experienced you get, the more signals you can subconsciously pick up and in fact what you put down as being your gut instinct is in fact the output from a brain that has absorbed certain details, processed them, and then spat out the results...ie. you should give this service a go. The last time this happened to me, I joined Summer Of Football. You could argue that if I was doing everything by the book, I was acting a little prematurely, but I've not had cause to regret my decision.
Other times, I've been fortunate enough to see something develop and have got to know the brains behind the scenes. Regular readers will know that this was the case with The Football Analyst. I got to know Graeme, could see what he was doing when in the process of developing his football systems, recognised that he has great analytical skills and came to the conclusion that if anyone was going to make a success of building a series of systems derived from ratings, it was him. It was a bit like going to a very impressive doctor - I knew I could put my faith in him. Hence I jumped straight in from Day 1 of TFA bets being released. No live proofing to fall back on. No incisive SBC report to read. Bang - straight in - and thank Dennis Bergkamp for that! Had I hesitated, I'd have missed out on a whole lot of profits.
The point I'm trying to make here is that thorough research, proofing, SBC reports etc are all incredibly important (in fact I'd go further than that and say that actually they are necessary if you want to get it right more times than you get it wrong), and that the ability to research and draw accurate conclusions from such material is a vitally important skill to possess when constructing a portfolio, at the end of it all, good old gut feel mixed with common sense can reap rich rewards. Sometimes, selecting the right services for you is as much art as science.
Tomorrow I'll talk about the role the SBC play, and other sources of information I use to identify services that I may want to watch with a view to subscribing at some point in the future.
But, as Bugs Bunny often said - for tonight at least - that's all folks.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's Betting
£1.36 profit. Heh!
Quiet day.
A winner for The Sportsman Racing (Stand Of Glory - Thirsk - 8/13). You know I've heard it said that you can't find value in odds on shots, but if you back a horse at 8/13 that goes off at 4/11, I'd say value has been well and truly found!
The poor run that Winning Racing Tips (0/1) are currently enduring continued with their one (admittedly lightly staked) bet went down. No joy either for The Market Examiner (0/2).
Only Sportyy in action for the Sports portfolio, suffering a very small loss with one winner from three (Andujar to bt Matosevic - 2.08/1).
Month to date figures:
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1.5pts, -0.692pts, roi -46.16%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.7pts, -1.741pts, roi -47.07%
The Market Examiner: Staked 14pts, -7.8pts, roi -55.71%
Total roi -37.01%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -2.29%
Sportyy: Staked 14pts, +6.21pts, roi 44.35%, ROC 7.76%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.08%
Grand Total roi -1.24%
Back tomorrow.
Monday, 13 August 2012
Not much going on.
Right then. A quick round up of the weekend's betting tonight and then the plan is tomorrow to explore the subject raised by Shane in the 'Comments' section last week; how to choose a service for the portfolio.
Weekend's Betting
I'm currently going through one of those oh-so-familiar periods of treading water. Over a period of time, I've realised that this state of stasis is very much the norm. It seems that to a large extent, months are either made or broken by two or three days betting. A great weekend can lead to a good month. A bad weekend to a poor month. To date, we're still waiting for one or t'other to heavily influence August's output. Certainly after the weekend just gone, we're still waiting for those definitive couple of days.
Baby steps forward for Northern Monkey who up until Friday was suffering a poor week. A couple of placed efforts and a winner (Prodigality - Brighton - 4/1) produced a small profit after deductions were made for a loser on Friday. Saturday was a good day with two winners from three (Highland Colori - Newmarket - 4/1 and Postscript - Haydock - 7/1), but then no returns from two bets on Sunday.
Continuing to frustrate is On The Nose. Last week saw another nice priced winner found but what follows are a couple of steps backwards, a pattern that is becoming frustratingly familiar. However, it is very easy to forget that last month was a good one and this month to date is far from disastrous and beyond redemption. It's not, and a decent second half to August could see the second consecutive good month posted. I know The Judge is feeling a little more confident now that the weather and subsequent ground conditions have settled a little. Reasons for optimism, despite Friday and Saturday providing just the one horse placed from seven tips.
Very quiet weekend from The Market Examiner. Just two bets from Friday, neither of which were winners.
Finally on the racing front, just the one selection over the weekend from The Sportsman Racing, a loser.
So the racing continues to disappoint. On a portfolio basis, returns from the nags have been seriously underwhelming since the start of the year. No reason to react too drastically yet though. Let's see what happens between now and the end of December.
On to football/sports betting.
I will never get bored of reporting great weekends for tipping services. Yep, Summer Of Football have done it again! Six winning bets from seven since Friday makes for good tipping! Look, we all know that this run can't go on for ever. Trouble is, when a bad weekend does inevitably come along, it's going to hurt. You can get dangerously used to a service doing really well!
Form Lab Lite epitomise what is happening to the portfolio as a whole at the moment. A couple of winners here, a couple of losers there, and all in all it feels like it is wading through treacle. Still, no real damage done and in the grander scheme of things, there's a lot worse places to be. I guess the likes of Form Lab Lite and Sportyy are likely to come under a bit more pressure to perform consistently, simply due to the fact that they are more expensive to subscribe to than many. I'm not saying that this should be the case, but subconsciously at least, let's face it, it is a sentiment hard to avoid.
Talking of Sportyy, just the one bet over the weekend, and a nice winner at that (1.31/1).
Similarly, just one bet from The Sportsman, but unfortunately, an unsuccessful one.
It's been overdue, but a mediocre weekend for Service X. A bit like Summer Of Football, you got the feeling it had to happen. Having said that, it could have been a lot worse.
Month to date...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 12pts, -5.8pts, roi -48.33%
Total roi -39.88%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -7.89%
Sportyy: Staked 10.5pts, +6.63pts, roi 63.14%, ROC 8.28%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.75%
Grand Total roi -1.32%
Finally, more so than the Community Shield, the release of the Football Elite antepost bets makes you realise just how imminent is the start of the new football season. Some very interesting selections this year and I thought the rationale highly original in it's thinking and backed up with a sound logic based on the stats examined. Got to admit, I've a wee tingle about it all now. The Olympics have been and gone. Bring on the footie!
Weekend's Betting
I'm currently going through one of those oh-so-familiar periods of treading water. Over a period of time, I've realised that this state of stasis is very much the norm. It seems that to a large extent, months are either made or broken by two or three days betting. A great weekend can lead to a good month. A bad weekend to a poor month. To date, we're still waiting for one or t'other to heavily influence August's output. Certainly after the weekend just gone, we're still waiting for those definitive couple of days.
Baby steps forward for Northern Monkey who up until Friday was suffering a poor week. A couple of placed efforts and a winner (Prodigality - Brighton - 4/1) produced a small profit after deductions were made for a loser on Friday. Saturday was a good day with two winners from three (Highland Colori - Newmarket - 4/1 and Postscript - Haydock - 7/1), but then no returns from two bets on Sunday.
Continuing to frustrate is On The Nose. Last week saw another nice priced winner found but what follows are a couple of steps backwards, a pattern that is becoming frustratingly familiar. However, it is very easy to forget that last month was a good one and this month to date is far from disastrous and beyond redemption. It's not, and a decent second half to August could see the second consecutive good month posted. I know The Judge is feeling a little more confident now that the weather and subsequent ground conditions have settled a little. Reasons for optimism, despite Friday and Saturday providing just the one horse placed from seven tips.
Very quiet weekend from The Market Examiner. Just two bets from Friday, neither of which were winners.
Finally on the racing front, just the one selection over the weekend from The Sportsman Racing, a loser.
So the racing continues to disappoint. On a portfolio basis, returns from the nags have been seriously underwhelming since the start of the year. No reason to react too drastically yet though. Let's see what happens between now and the end of December.
On to football/sports betting.
I will never get bored of reporting great weekends for tipping services. Yep, Summer Of Football have done it again! Six winning bets from seven since Friday makes for good tipping! Look, we all know that this run can't go on for ever. Trouble is, when a bad weekend does inevitably come along, it's going to hurt. You can get dangerously used to a service doing really well!
Form Lab Lite epitomise what is happening to the portfolio as a whole at the moment. A couple of winners here, a couple of losers there, and all in all it feels like it is wading through treacle. Still, no real damage done and in the grander scheme of things, there's a lot worse places to be. I guess the likes of Form Lab Lite and Sportyy are likely to come under a bit more pressure to perform consistently, simply due to the fact that they are more expensive to subscribe to than many. I'm not saying that this should be the case, but subconsciously at least, let's face it, it is a sentiment hard to avoid.
Talking of Sportyy, just the one bet over the weekend, and a nice winner at that (1.31/1).
Similarly, just one bet from The Sportsman, but unfortunately, an unsuccessful one.
It's been overdue, but a mediocre weekend for Service X. A bit like Summer Of Football, you got the feeling it had to happen. Having said that, it could have been a lot worse.
Month to date...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 24pts, -8.918pts, roi -37.15%
On The Nose: Staked 21.75pts, -6.025pts, roi -27.7%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, -1pt, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 12pts, -5.8pts, roi -48.33%
Total roi -39.88%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 13pts, +6.204pts, roi 47.72%, ROC 31.02%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.3pts, -0.013pts, roi -4.33%, ROC -0.21%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 14.5pts, -1.145pts, roi -7.89%, ROC -7.89%
Sportyy: Staked 10.5pts, +6.63pts, roi 63.14%, ROC 8.28%
Service X: Staked 119pts, +5.797pts, roi 4.87%, ROC 5.79%
Total roi 15.75%
Grand Total roi -1.32%
Finally, more so than the Community Shield, the release of the Football Elite antepost bets makes you realise just how imminent is the start of the new football season. Some very interesting selections this year and I thought the rationale highly original in it's thinking and backed up with a sound logic based on the stats examined. Got to admit, I've a wee tingle about it all now. The Olympics have been and gone. Bring on the footie!
Friday, 10 August 2012
Friday. Yipee!
Dead short one as usual for a Friday. To be honest after yesterday's horrors, the less we dwell tonight the better anyway.
A couple of comments left after recent posts that I will definitely respond to on the blog early next week. Shane, that's your comment I'm referring to so bear with me.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday's Betting
Nightmare. As a result, we find ourselves right back to square one for the month again.
This should be quite easy.
Northern Monkey (0/1). On The Nose (0/3), although one did place to more or less return stakes. The Market Examiner (0/3). Winning Racing Tips (0/1).
Three from six called right by Service X but at the odds and with the staking, a loss nevertheless. Summer of Football and Form Lab Lite went for the same team (Botafogo) which lost, so a double whammy there.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 16.5pts, -12.75pts, roi -77.27%
On The Nose: Staked 16.5pts, -2.175pts, roi -13.18%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 10pts, -3.8pts, roi -38%
Total roi -47.4%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 6pts, +2pts, roi 33.33%, ROC 10%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 7pts, -0.435pts, roi -6.21%, ROC -0.87%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 95pts, +13.397pts, roi 14.1%, ROC 13.39%
Total roi 22.14%
Grand Total roi -1.76%
So, fingers crossed for Mo Farah tomorrow night. Not sure what I'm going to do with my evenings when the Olympics have finished. Write proper blog posts I suppose. :)
A couple of comments left after recent posts that I will definitely respond to on the blog early next week. Shane, that's your comment I'm referring to so bear with me.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday's Betting
Nightmare. As a result, we find ourselves right back to square one for the month again.
This should be quite easy.
Northern Monkey (0/1). On The Nose (0/3), although one did place to more or less return stakes. The Market Examiner (0/3). Winning Racing Tips (0/1).
Three from six called right by Service X but at the odds and with the staking, a loss nevertheless. Summer of Football and Form Lab Lite went for the same team (Botafogo) which lost, so a double whammy there.
Month to date figures...
Racing
Northern Monkey: Staked 16.5pts, -12.75pts, roi -77.27%
On The Nose: Staked 16.5pts, -2.175pts, roi -13.18%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts, roi -100%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 3.4pts, -1.441pts, roi -42.4%
The Market Examiner: Staked 10pts, -3.8pts, roi -38%
Total roi -47.4%
Sports
Summer Of Football: Staked 6pts, +2pts, roi 33.33%, ROC 10%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, +0.137pts, roi 91%, ROC 2.28%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 7pts, -0.435pts, roi -6.21%, ROC -0.87%
Sportyy: Staked 9pts, +4.665pts, roi 51.83%, ROC 5.83%
Service X: Staked 95pts, +13.397pts, roi 14.1%, ROC 13.39%
Total roi 22.14%
Grand Total roi -1.76%
So, fingers crossed for Mo Farah tomorrow night. Not sure what I'm going to do with my evenings when the Olympics have finished. Write proper blog posts I suppose. :)
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