Thursday, 29 November 2012

Quick update

Still busy, I'm afraid. However, just enough time for a quick update.

Before that though, a point in the direction of a new website run by the powers that be behind the excellent High Class Equine blog.

This month of all months, the psychology of gambling has been very much in focus. This site http://gamblerspsychologykit.blogspot.com contains numerous articles dedicated to the subject. Take a look.

Tuesday's Betting

A poor loser for Winning Racing Systems (Favs), the second consecutive bet at odds lower that 1/2 to be overturned. I've some thoughts on this service and how I'm going to move forward with it which I'll go into early next week.

A nice winner for the European arm of The Football Analyst (E3-E7) (Mainz to bt Frankfurt - 2.5) which went a little way to counter the loss of a point on the domestic (7/22) system.


Wednesday's Betting

A familiar winner for Northern Monkey (York Glory - Wolverhampton - 7/4) with a second selection proving not quite up to the task.

A loser each for The Football Analyst (7/22) and (E3-E7), and two unsuccessful selections from Summer Of Football, which did find one winner (Stoke to bt Newcastle - 2.0). At last a nice winner from Football Elite (Tottenham to bt Liverpool - 2.47), although I always find it difficult to raise too much enthusiasm for a Spurs win! Still, no room for such baseless sentiments in betting, eh?

So all in all, the football is just showing some early, fragile signs of recovery. Let's hope that from this small acorn of hope does a mighty oak of profit rise.


Wednesday, 28 November 2012

AWOL.

Sorry, chaps.

Been really busy, the Arsenal are playing tonight and still a million and one things to do. All blogging will be temporarily suspended until tomorrow.

Laters.

Tuesday, 27 November 2012

Community spirit.

You know, after last night's post, I've received a few emails and comments asking if I'm ok. Well folks, I'm fine, but I do very much appreciate the support. It makes me feel we're kind of a community in here, and I have to profess it was with that in mind that I wrote the post.

I know that many others follow the same tipsters as I do. My portfolio is essentially made up of very popular services. Thinking logically therefore, I'd have thought a fair few readers have been experiencing this latest losing run for themselves. With this in mind, I wanted to write an open and honest post on what thoughts I've been having, ultimately in the hope that it might strike a chord with some and be something that can be related to. I'm also aware that this blog is a strong advocate of patience and perspective when it comes to gambling, but that it is sometimes very hard to cling on to those beliefs - I've no allusions to grandeur here, but it's a bit like Christ in the desert being goaded and tempted by the devil to fall off his moral perch.

But chaps. We shall stay strong! As a once great leader said, "If you're going through hell, keep going". He also said, "Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts". Admittedly, I'm stopping short of fighting on the beaches, landing grounds, fields, streets or hills. Can't be doing with any of that malarkey.

Anyway, you take my point. I didn't want the post to give the impression that suddenly, we were in the midst of a crisis of a hole out of which it is going to be impossible to clamber. I know that my portfolio has sound foundations and that I run it properly. But, I also think that the day you become complacent is the day you start upon an inevitable decline that as time goes on, becomes harder and harder to reverse, and this short (hopefully), sharp (definitely) shock will serve to ensure that complacency doesn't begin to take hold. With that being the case, I fully anticipate that I will emerge from this slump a wiser and better gambler, and that with just a couple of very minor tweaks, the portfolio too will benefit.

It's a tricky game, "investment" gambling. I do wonder if you ever get it fully licked, no matter how experienced you become. I have a feeling that if you ever get to the point where you think that you do indeed have it mastered, it's very likely to rear around like a rabid cobra on speed and bite you on the arse before you have time to even blink.


Now, I did mention yesterday that I was cutting a service free. That service is Service X, a cracking little football tipster who specialises in the South and Central American markets. I've done nothing but make good money since starting with them in the summer, but increasingly so, I have found getting anywhere near advised prices an impossible task. My strategy of watching markets for prices to rebound paid off for a while, but it is noticeable that they are failing to rebound on an increasingly regular basis now. I would also suggest that the tipster's account with Pinnacle and SBO is now very much marked, as the initial prices disappear faster than that rabid, hyped up snake I was talking about can sink it's fangs into some poor soul's backside.

It's a shame, a real shame, and if I was gambling for a living and could ensure I could react to emails as soon as they were sent, I'd be on it like a flash. But I'm not, and I can't. The irony, eh? The only dedicated football service to at least break even this month so far...and I'm ditching it.

Yesterday's Betting

A bit better. Two football bets, one from The Football Analyst Euro System E3-E7 and one from Sportyy, and both won! At decent odds! Well I never did.

A good winner from On The Nose too (Arkose - Kempton - 11/2) and another in what has been a fine start to this season's tipping from The Value Bettor (Loose Chip - Kempton - 5/1).




Monday, 26 November 2012

A few thoughts.

The hardest thing about writing a blog like this is that it is sometimes very difficult to articulate the various thoughts that keep buzzing through your head. The problem is most acute when on a losing run. I don't want to repeat what has already been said about worst drawdowns, keeping focused, avoiding the temptation to make big changes, etc, etc. Instead, I thought I might jot down a few words that might give you an insight into how I'm actually feeling.

My head hurts. I feel completely drained; physically and mentally worn out. I've never been the best of sleepers anyway, and it has never taken much by way of distraction to have me lying awake for hours, the same thoughts frantically hurling themselves around my head again and again and again, like crazed moths around a searchlight. It's not worry that's keeping me awake. It's ideas, plans, fault-finding. I feel like I'm in some all-consuming quest to identify what has gone wrong, which is all rather stupid. It's obvious what has gone wrong - a number of my tipster services have all lost form at the same time. It really is as simple as that.

Trouble is - and I mentioned this last week - it is when you endure a losing run that you find that perhaps you haven't been set up as well as you thought you had. You identify reasons why a service isn't perfectly suited to your needs. It's almost as if you are looking for excuses to drop a service, to write it off, to find reasons that you can use to convince yourself that you have shown it the patience you afford your children when they're trying desparately to learn to do something that they are finding difficult, such as walking or riding a bike. But then just when you are sure that by cutting the service loose you are doing the right thing, there is a small but persistent voice in the back of your head that questions your decision making. I suppose that voice is called a nagging doubt, and mine is driving me to distraction.

Anyone who read the interview I did for the Secret Betting Club, the second part of which was published last week, might remember my saying that I preferred a sharp losing run to periods that might last for weeks when no real loss or any meaningful profit is made. Well, when I said that, it was true, and I meant it. However, that summation was naturally based on my dealing with the losing runs I had experienced up to that point. This losing run is a different kettle of fish entirely. This is a tsunami that makes all previous bad spells look like the ripples on a pond caused by an alighting dragonfly. Seriously, this is by far the worst drawdown I've ever suffered and I'm undoubtedly feeling the effects of that.

Frankly, I've had enough at the moment of espousing the virtues of proper bank management, sensible and consistent staking, and the rest of the text book responses to cope with what is currently happening. I'm not saying that these principles are flawed. They're not. And ultimately, I'm hoping anticipating that it is by sticking to these principles that will see me ok. But I've reached the stage where I'm beyond that. Right now, I'm punch drunk, on the ropes, and desperately hanging on for the bell. I know it's coming. I just don't know when. What I can tell you, is that it can't ring soon enough.

Should I take some time off? It's bloody tempting, I can tell you. It seems a lot of the racecourses are vulnerable to the incessant rain we're suffering here in the UK so I can't envisage a particularly busy time of it on the racing front. Perhaps this is a good time to refresh the batteries. I know I took a holiday in October but bar a couple of bets, I placed everything as usual. I can see the logic - the new month starts on Saturday, I'm not going to miss much - why not take four days off? The only reason I wouldn't is for fear of missing a couple of football bets during the midweek fixtures that provide an end of month upswing - not enough to make this anything other than a disastrous month, but a little bite back at the losses nonetheless. The gambler's dilemma - an answer to which I must find I think, if I'm going to develop my skills.

I have made some decisions though. I think a weakness of mine is that sometimes I can be too patient, too understanding of the difficulties experienced by the tipsters who I know suffer when things go awry. It doesn't help that I really like most of them, have built up a relationship with them and that most of the blighters read this blog! This in turn makes me indecisive, and if I want to get to where I want to be, I can't let these issues, these weaknesses of mine get in the way. I feel I do need to be a little more dynamic with the running of the portfolio and a little less passive, without going too far the other way and making changes for changes sake.

Having said all that, I also realise that now is not the time to be making swingeing changes. I don't yet trust myself to make sound decisions when so obviously affected by the simple fact that this last month has been the worst I've known, and by some distance. The plan therefore is to pause a little, carry on largely as I have been through December, and then mould the portfolio into the shape I want it for the start of the New Year. Nothing radical - just a little trimming, a neat short back and sides as opposed to a restyling. A Claudio Ranieri style minor tinker as opposed to suddenly going from 4-4-2 to the sweeper system overnight. There's not too much wrong with it, but there are one or two fundamental requirements of an efficient portfolio that I'm not currently meeting and these issues need to be addressed. Except in one case. I am dropping a service for December, and ironically it is one that I have made very good money with over the last few months and hasn't caused me any losses this month when every other footie tipster has. More on that tomorrow.

So. There we have it. A "from the heart" post that perhaps folk can relate to, that shows that behind all the rules of 'proper' gambling and principles that rightly act as a guide to what we do, there is underpinning it all a massive human element. It is how we control this, and cope with the psychology of what we do, which separates the men from the boys. But then I guess we all knew that already.

It's late and I've been typing for far too long, so I'm not bothering to put up yesterday's performance figures. Suffice to say they're not impressive.

Back tomorrow.



Sunday, 25 November 2012

Saturday's Figures

Here are yesterday's figures.

I shall leave comment on the football until we see what happens today.

Winning Racing Systems (Favs): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 3pts, +3.15pts (missed a couple of losers at the beginning of the day's racing).

The Football Analyst (E3-E7): Staked 0.75pts, -0.5pts.
Summer Of Football: Staked 3pts, -1.005pts.
Football Elite: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Sportyy: Staked 3.5pts, +0.89pts.
The Sportsman: Staked 0.15pts, -0.15pts.
Service X: Staked 9pts, -1.002pts.

Saturday, 24 November 2012

Profit. Who'd a thought it?

Quick round up of yesterday's betting.

Good day all round. Northern Monkey's profitable week continued as Wayne found another winner from his two bets (Robin Hoods Bay - Wolverhampton - half at 7/1, half at 6s), and a third consecutive winning day for Winning Racing Systems (Favs) (Mutual Regard - Wolverhampton - 10/11). No luck for On The Nose (0/1).

A hint at a return to better times for Summer Of Football who found three winners from four bets.

On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, +3.562pts.
Winning Racing Systems: Staked 1pt, +0.909pts.

Summer Of Football: Staked 4pts, +1.546pts.

Friday, 23 November 2012

Choosing a lane...and sticking with it.

That's better. I don't do being ill. I'm too much of a wuz.


I want to clarify something I wrote in Tuesday's post in relation to whether or not someone with a portfolio set up in the way that mine is, needed to speculate at all on relatively unproven services. The services I mentioned specifically were Skeeve's Shortlist Picks, Winning Racing Systems, Northern Monkey's all weather system bets, and The Football Analyst European systems.

My standpoint is this: the answer is no, there is no need to speculate. What I should have added though is that I am not sorry that I have done so.

At the beginning of the football season, I remember writing that whatever systems from The Football Analyst's portfolio people chose to follow, my advice was to stick with them for the season. The reason for my stance is that when what are now the "Established" UK systems were launched, I chose my lane, and then changed it at various times of the first season. The result of such inconsistency was a profit that although healthy, was nowhere near as healthy as they would have been had I just stuck to my initial course. So that is precisely what I intend to do this season.

Where I have been helped tremendously with my TFA choices this year, is by Graeme Dand (the service maestro) working out an appropriate staking plan. Having spotted that historically, European System E3-E7 produced more bets than the UK System 7-22 that I was going to be following through the 2012/13 season, Graeme pointed me in the direction of a staking plan designed to prevent a disproportionate percentage of my staking being deployed on a european system which, unlike it's UK equivalent, had et to be tested within a live environment. It is because of this that I'm very comfortable with my TFA portfolio and won't be shifting from it unless, like any other service, I lose the bank dedicated to it. I'm as certain as I can be that this won't happen.

I feel the same about the Winning Racing Systems (Favourites) system. It has been a very inauspicious start for Paul Ruffy's new offering, and which this week reached a drawdown touching on 50% of the bank, but having made the decision to follow - a decision based on sound principles - I fully intend to stick with it. Wayne of Northern Monkey pulled his aw system bets himself and thus took any decision to be made out of my hands, and it was the tone of Skeeve's email last Sunday that has led to my decision to call a halt to the Shortlist picks.

So, it's largely, "as you were", moving into the weekend's action. Let's hope it's a good'un.


Tuesday's - Thursday's Betting

A small loss on Tuesday as the horses proved mildly profitable. Winning Racing Systems (Favourites) found a winner (First Fandango - Fakenham - 4/5), the Winning Racing Tips selection placed and losers for On The Nose (0/1) and The Market Examiner (0/1).

Just one bet on the football, courtesy of The Football Analyst (7/22), which unfortunately was a loser.


A small profit on Wednesday. A nice winner for Northern Monkey (York Glory - Lingfield - 6/1) from two bets, and another winner for Winning Racing Systems (Favs) (Mutual Regard - Kempton - 8/11). No joy for The Market Examiner (0/1) or Winning Racing Tips (0/1).

The Sportsman caught the losing football tipster virus (0/1).


And finally, yesterday and a good profit on a day at last! Winning Racing Tips came up with a lovely winner (The Mumper - Market Rasen - 8/1), and the third consecutive success for Winning Racing Systems (Favs) (Changing Times - Market Rasen - 5/6). Two placed efforts at 8/1 and 6/1 for Northern Monkey but no luck for The Market Examiner (0/1).

Whey Hey! A profit - albeit a very small one - on the footie, Service X hitting two from three.


And that's yer lot. Strangely for a Friday night, I don't really fancy a beer. I don't know if I've told you...I hate being sick.