Saturday, 15 January 2011

'Get Out Of Jail Free' card

At five minutes past four this afternoon, I was staring down into an abyss. All of yesterday's predictions of doom and gloom looked ready to become reality. It seemed that I could have given the Oracle at Delphi a run for her money when it came to predicting the future.

Nineteen horses had run their race, most of them pathetically. Only two had succeeded, and neither of them were staked highly in relation to many of the others. In the football it was half time, and an uncomfortably high proportion of the games had unfavourable scores. It was as if the God of bloggers, taking pity on me in my first week of worshipping at his blog-altar, was eager to make me look as if I knew what I was talking about and that hindsight could whistle - foresight was my Blog-God given talent!

And then...goals started to be scored by the right teams. A rescue mission looked as if it might be on. A light at the end of an extremely dark tunnel began to glimmer, it was to grow closer and closer and get brighter and brighter until with a whoosh, I exited the darkness and stumbled dazed into a kind of hazy sunshine type light. Not blinding, but warm and comforting.

The trouble with Saturday's is that I often spend them in the company of a lifelong friend (the same one I shared brief employment with at the bookies in our youth) and his father. They too like a bet, but purely for entertainment. The father swears by Rob Wright of the 'Times' and frames his Lucky 15s around that tipsters' insight. My friend, always with a keen eye for value, is backing some team or another for high scoring wins at fancy prices. Or he is planning his next treble which if it were to be successful, would allow him to lead the life of a lottery winner. To be fair to him, his rationale for his selections is usually excellent, and it is only a matter of time until he succeeds. He undoubtedly identifies value, but let's just say he is playing to a low strike rate. I hope he can bear the stress when his first two legs do come in one day, and he has to wait until the winner of the 2022 World Cup is confirmed before the final leg secures his sizeable returns!

So why is spending Saturday afternoons in such happy company a source of "trouble"? Because unlike during the week when I am at work, I am seeing the day's action played out in front of me. Every race, every goal - as it happens. Monday to Friday, I check the results when I get home. It is matter of fact - this won, that lost. Psychologically, that approach is much better suited to obtaining a balanced perspective and making objective judgments. Try being objective when you've got over a grand staked on the afternoon's footie and Jeff Stelling is doing his thing in the last five minutes of games! It's not easy, I can tell you.

Today's Action

Let's start with the racing - get it out of the way! Here is today's roll of shame...blank days for PJA Racing NH (after singing praises yesterday) -4.5pts, 4PA -4pts, Pricewise Extra -1pt, The Sportsman Racing -1pt. On The Nose made a half point profit through Shinrock Paddy (5/1 winner at Naas) but also had a couple of losers. Northern Monkey Punter also made a half point via Picansort (5/1 winner at Lingfield) but also had a couple of losers (you spotting the trend?). Finally Winning Racing Tips gave Riverside Theatre each way in the King George at 16/1. The horse ran an excellent race to finish second so 0.6pts profit made. All told, -£284 on the nags today.

Footballistically (copyright A.Wenger), +£453.96. Football Elite continued their uncharacteristically poor (read "catastrophic") start to 2011 with one bet down and the other providing a returned stake as Wingan were backed via the Asian handicaps. The rest secured a profit...Skeeve only just as the good work done in securing nearly five points profit for the main service was negated by his Blue Square South late service pick being a loser. Football Investor made an outstanding 9.9pts profit, Strike Zone a comfy 1.3pts profit, Sports Investor a not inconsiderable 1.4pts profit (much larger stakes, though), and The Sportsman weighed in with a small but winning bet too. My X-Factor mate had a bit of a stormer too! Good on him!

No service view tonight - I'm knackered after all the excitement.

Saturday 15th January: Staked £1,625, +£169.96.
Week to date: Staked £2,476, +£407.37.
Month to date: Staked £8,124, +£934.58, roi 11.5%.

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