Psychology

I am of the opinion that when looking to add a service to the portfolio, it is important to look beyond the simple profit figures and roi that a service has achieved. For me, a service needs to suit my personality traits and gambling preferences. A new service also needs to fit nicely into the portfolio; it must not unbalance it, but instead add to the potential of the overall portfolio performance.

So what are my gambling preferences? Well, I'm not too keen on lengthy losing runs (who is?) and so I have to confess that I do not derive too much enjoyment from services whose selections are generally at longer odds. I have learnt over time that every well-balanced portfolio does need to contain such services, but I know that I simply would not be able to cope mentally if a large segment of my portfolio was made up of this kind of service. I can easily forgo the exhilaration derived from backing a winning long shot in preference of a higher number of successful shorter priced selections. This is one reason why I prefer betting on football to horse racing, whilst aknowledging that racing services play an essential part in helping me achieve what I want to achieve.

Looking at my portfolio at present, I can see that Chasemaster, On The Nose, and PJA Racing NH do provide selections that have an average price longer than 5/1. There is no need for me to add another service of this nature. Of course, many of you may hold a different view - you'd rather get the big wins that result from backing successful long shots and can easily cope with the inevitable lengthy losing runs that operating in such a way leads you to encounter regularly. And that is my message here - add services to a portfolio that you know will suit your outlook. If we agree that stability in a portfolio can only be a good thing, then let's lay the foundations for that stability by selecting the right services to follow in the first place!

So looking at the possibles listed yesterday, I can draw a line through Each Way Value, PJA Flat and PJA All Weather, and CD Systems Daily Bargain. All of these are admirable services with a record of providing healthy levels of profit, but as I said at the beginning of this post, this is not the be all and end all. I can easily envisage joining these services in the future - they're just not quite suitable right now.

Today's Action

The racing provided a small profit today. The undoubted stars were Chasemaster with one winner from one selection (Aghill - Musselburgh - 11/2) for a 1.7pt profit, and On The Nose with one winner (Be My Light - Huntingdon - 9/1) from three and a profit of 3.6pts. ProBandit also had a winner (Pelmanism - Lingfield - 5/2) but also had losers so a 0.5pt loss, and Northern Monkey Punter (-1.25pts) drew a blank. PJA found two horses that were placed from five tips but no winners, so a 2.2pt loss there. I must say I'm disappointed to have had three winners today at 9/1, 11/2 and 5/2 and not make more profit. The reason lies in the staking - for some reason PJA seemed to have risked more points this month than is usual, and as a result, my racing portfolio is unbalanced. The tricky thing is to decide whether this is likely to be a more permanent factor which would necessitate a tweaking of the way I'm staking this service, or whether it just a one-off and over time, the number of points risked will fall back. Answers on a postcard, please.

Three footie bets and three losers. Sigh.

Wednesday 26th January: Staked £363, -£44.36.
Week to date: Staked £1,014, -£294.96.
Month to date: Staked £13,280, +£174.38, roi 1.31%.