Timing's everything

A very quiet day today, so I thought I'd take this opportunity to mull over something that has been in my mind for a little while now. How important timing is to how we look and view a particular service.

I've been a long term member of Football Elite, a service which in the calendar year of 2010 made a shade over 17 points profit. In December just gone there was a tremendous surge of eight consecutive winners. In other words, at £100/point (which are the stakes I play with FE) my profits were in excess of £1,700 for the year which I regard as a very healthy contribution, and it felt that the year, obviously, had finished really strongly. I was all set for a flying start to 2011.

Just two weeks into the New Year though, Football Elite has been on a disastrous run - ten straight bets without a return this month. Am I worried? Not one smidgeon. I will confidently continue to stake just as I have always done, patiently waiting for whichever God Matt has upset to show a little mercy and restore equilibrium to FE's normal performance levels. I may sacrifice the odd goat or two myself to hurry the process along a little, but hey, to make it in this game, there will be times you have to be ruthless!

But the important question (other than where can I lay my hands on a goat) to answer is this. How would I have felt if I hadn't been a long term member but had decided to join FE just in time for 2011? I would have read all the good reviews, examined the stats and quite understandably have held very high expectations, only to be extremely disappointed and probably feeling completely disillusioned before even half the first month of membership was through. I would probably be examining my staking and be sorely tempted to decrease my £/point value, perhaps halving it "just to see this bad run through", half expecting to actually never recover my initial losses. Of course, this would mean that as and when fortunes did take a turn for the better, it would take me much longer to regain what I had lost and I would miss out on some good profit making. When the sun did shine, I wouldn't be making any hay!

How do I know this is how I would feel and react to such circumstances? Because when I first started trying to gamble seriously, this was a mistake I made. More than once!

On The Nose is a service that I did actually start backing with money in the New Year. As regular readers know, the service has been outstanding recently, netting me 41 points profit so far. I am amazed, astounded, delighted...but also cautious. This is overperformance to the same level as Football Elite's underperformance. Such a rate of profit-making cannot last. The roi is at 135%! Perhaps I should up stakes. Perhaps I should ignore the fact that On The Nose made a loss in December. Maybe I should ride the wave just that little bit more; you know, in the way the banks did when everything seemed rosy.

Or perhaps not. Perhaps I should just be really boring and keep things as they are. Just plod away, putting the bets on at the same levels, day in, day out. Boring? You bet ya! A better strategy for long term, steady profits? Absolutely.

Today's Action

Only a few bets on the horses today, all apart from one given by Northern Monkey Punter (Urban Kode - 15/8) a loser. Even a loser for On The Nose today (-1pt), and also for Pricewise Extra (-1pt), and Chasemaster (-0.5pts). Not much to say, really. A typical, quiet and unprofitable Monday.

Monday 17th January: Staked £84, -£61.
Week to date: Staked £84, -£61.
Month to date: Staked £8,786.50, +£575.08, roi 6.54%.

I hope to do another service view tomorrow. Until then.