Tuesday, 8 February 2011

"I Don't Like Mondays..."

So, after last night's post, are we thinking, "Yep, I need to take a break from it all every now and then and be better for it"?; or are we thinking, "Stop whinging and get on with it you great Jessie!"?

Well, quite frankly, I'm not interested in anyone's opinion on this other than my own. Call me selfish, but I'll do what I think is right for my gambling, alright? Trouble is though, I'm far from convinced that taking a break is the best thing to do for my gambling. There are consequences to face from taking a sabbatical, even if it is only for a day.

This of course, is where the psychology comes in. You're not telling me that if you're running a portfolio and you decide to take a 24 hour break, you'll not be convinced that during the 24 hours you're about to miss there will be an unbacked 33/1 shot fly in from the service that hasn't picked a winner for a month, an each way double landed at a huge price that you don't benefit from, and you'll see the team you haven't backed as a 5/1 outsider against the league leaders secure a win with a retaken 95th minute penalty that should never have been given in the first place! You will be apprehensive at the thought of taking this time off because the law of sod dictates that if you had just put the bets on instead of being an oversensitive pillock, you'd have made more in that one day than you end up making in the whole of the month? It is the same part of the brain that tells you not to give up on the service that hasn't turned a profit for a year, ignoring all logic that tells you that if you had any sense you really should give up on it, now! But you tell yourself don't you, that as soon as you do, the winners will start to fly in. Let's face it, we've all been there and done that and the T-shirt is so well-worn it's beginning to fade!

OK, so there is a possibility that the nightmare scenario of missing out on huge profits does play out, but how likely is it to really? Let's face it, it's not at all likely, no matter how hard a small but mischievous part of the brain tries to convince us otherwise. That doesn't mean though that we shouldn't try to minimise the risk of missing out on profits unnecessarily. We need to ask ourselves whether we can schedule our breaks in such a way that statistically, we're less likely to do damage to our roi by not betting and taking a break instead? This is a bit like the principle that many football betting services keep to at the beginning of the season - keep powder dry until the form settles down and more solid predictions can be made...don't bet at this stage and just watch our fancies and see what happens.

My instinct is that Mondays are, generally speaking, my least profitable day. The standard of racing is usually at it's lowest on Mondays and therefore many racing services sidestep advising bets or at least reduce the number of selections they give. There's never much football on a Monday either, and if there is a game on a Monday evening, chances are we could have placed any bet on it over the weekend anyway. Consequently, the amount of cash gambled on a Monday is lower than other days of the week. Sure, it might happen that we miss out big time, but I'd suggest the odds are in favour of our not doing.

So, is the answer to take the odd Monday off? Is that one way to avoid the risk of staleness and burn out that betting day in, day out can bring? Got to be food for thought, hasn't it?

Today's Action

Another distinctly underwhelming day on the horses today. Northern Monkey Punter, On The Nose and Chasemaster were all out for ducks, and to continue with the cricketing analogy, ProBandit managed to scrape into double figures with a winner (Elhaamri - Southwell - 9/4) that provided a small profit on a race in which they also tipped a loser.

Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
ProBandit: Staked 1pt, +0.375pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.75pts, -1.75pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.375pts, -0.375pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £52.50.

Just one football bet tonight, from Football Investor, and one loser.

Football Investor: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Financial loss on the football of £15.

Tuesday 8th February: Staked £122.50, -£67.50.
Week to date: Staked £256.50, -£141.50.
Month to date: Staked £4,978.50, +£682.02, roi 13.69%.

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