Thursday, 3 February 2011

You gotta have faith...

I got round to thinking about Football Elite today. The service has been quite the centre of attention recently and I've read many a comment in forums about their recent poor run. Many seem to be on the verge of quitting with it, others are talking about reducing stakes. I think you know where I stand on the subject - I've said on numerous occasions that I will simply plod along, keeping stakes the same until at least the end of the season. But which approach is the right one? Which is the best course to steer?

Having thought things through, I think the correct course of action would be to stop following Football Elite's selections completely with immediate effect, or, as I will be doing, simply carry on as normal. The very worst thing to do in my opinion would be to continue following, but at reduced stakes. This halfway house approach can lead only to disappointment as far as I am concerned.

You either have faith in a service, or you don't. If you are convinced that at some point between December 2010 and January 2011 Matt at FE completely lost the plot, why on earth would you put any more money on his selections? Why throw good money after bad? It makes no sense; there is no logic to it. You don't believe FE can make you any money, so why back the selections at all? Why reduce stakes? All that would mean is that you would slow down the rate of losses. But they'd still be losses.

The flip side of the coin of course, is that you think this is just a particularly rough patch in what for four years has been a tremendously consistent service. It had to come at some time, and this is that time. Ride it through - Matt's selection policy for identifying bets hasn't changed. There's absolutely no evidence that he isn't working as hard as ever to find winners. He will come good. So, if you believe this to be the case, why on earth would you reduce stakes now? The inevitable consequence would be that as soon as the losing run is broken, you'll make back your losses, but at a much slower rate than the rate in which you suffered them. At the point at which by carrying on staking at normal levels you get back to actually making profits, at reduced stakes you would still be merely reducing the deficit. It could take you twice as long as it should to get back to level pegging, never mind actually making some money out of the service.

Reducing stakes is the wrong course of action. There is no upside. If Matt has suddenly lost it, you'll still lose money. If he hasn't, you won't enjoy the full benefit of the winners he picks.

Naturally, I've talked about Football Elite because it is topical. But this principle must apply to any service. I think to gamble successfully, you have to commit yourself. You're either fully in, or your fully out. Make a decision and stick to it. Form an opinion on whether a service will make you money in the long term, or lose you money. And then act on that conviction.


Today's action

The racing got off to a flyer today with the first bet being a successful Winning Racing Tip's selection (Jimmy The Saint - Towcester - 11/2). Trouble is, from that point on, it was pretty much downhill. WRT also had an each way double, the first leg of which won, the second leg of which (naturally) finished fourth. Of the other services, Northern Monkey Punter managed to get one placed from two and ProBandit one placed from four. PJA (0/1), On The Nose (0/2) and Chasemaster (0/1) all drew complete blanks.

PJA NH: Staked 0.75pts, -0.75pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1.75pts, -0.55pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2pts, -1.543pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.1pts, +1.48pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £58.94.

Football-wise, only Skeeve with a single selection today, and Skeeve with a single loser.

Skeeve: Staked 4pts, -4pts.
Financial loss on the football of £60.

Thursday 3rd February: Staked £316, -£118.94.
Week to date: Staked £1,836, +£244.89.
Month to date: Staked £1,665.50, +£285.27, roi 17.12%.

So today has seen us give back a bit of what we made yesterday. After the first bet of the day, I was hoping for a little better than that.

PS. I have a bit of a problem over the next two days as I'm going to my parents for the weekend (they don't want to see me - just their grandchildren!). They live in deepest, darkest Shropshire. So deep and dark in fact, that there is no internet connection and no reception for my Iphone, so I can't even use that to post. Quite frankly, if anyone thinks I'm going into the nearest town, which is about 15 miles away, to make a blog post at goodness knows what time, well, they can think again! There are some strange beasts that frequent them there Salop hills. So, I will try to post some basic figures for Friday on Saturday morning and then I shall return on Sunday with a full weekend round up. That's the plan anyway...


  1. I think you're completely right when it comes to confidence in a tipster. Carry on at the same level if you believe or walk away and don't look back once you've had enough. It's easy to step in and out but I think you end up in a mess if you do that.

  2. Yep - unfortunately it was a lesson I learnt the hard way.

  3. You are right about Football Elite. I will keep on betting at normal stakes. It is a long term project anyway.
    Just unlucky that I started following this service since the beginning of this year :(