Saturday, 12 February 2011

Triumph and Disaster

Let's just get yesterday tidied up first - Football Investor's evening bet was a winner and produced a £28.20 profit and a total profit on the day of £67.72.

Now to today.

I find that writing a gambling blog helps me to establish the right mindset, something that is an essential part of making a long-term success of running a portfolio of tipsters. I think it is only too easy to say the right things, but sometimes not so easy to have 100% conviction in those things. Being forced to take a step back at the end of every day and think about what has happened and then to articulate the day's events and their consequences is a great way to remain objective. And objectivity, I believe, is essential to gaining a proper perspective on things.

I hope that the impression I give in this blog is of someone who 99% of the time remains level-headed. Already, in the short time I have been writing this blog, I have described good winning periods and a disappointing losing run. Through it I have tried to maintain my sense of humour and look upon things dispassionately, accepting that these events are all a part of the game we are playing.

Today however, I admit to feeling down and wary of the future. Confidence has taken a serious knock and as I type this evening, those gremlins that inhabit the murkier recesses of the conscience are making themselves known. Actually, they are demanding my full attention by yelling at the tops of their voices, casting doubts into my mind, forcing me to question my methods and approach.

The biggest temptation is to seriously question some of the services themselves. This is unfair to those that run them, who put every effort into producing an edge and work hard to provide their followers with a top service. But I cannot help but feel resentment after last night delaying a long journey on the motorway to place nine Football Investor bets to be rewarded today with just one winner. I look at Shaolin Betting and wonder why they were unable to find any winners from four selections at average odds of 0.86/1. I question Strike Zone's ability to pick three winners out of five bets but produce a profit of just £9. I wonder why 4PA is going in big on an 11/8 shot, and I question PJA NH, who after altering their staking methods have had a very poor January with February at risk of going the same way.

Read that last paragraph again. Then let's think again and try to gain that elusive perspective I was talking about.

Football Investor play at long odds - they will have worse days than today, and the chap who runs the service is not to blame for my having a long journey to undertake on a wet Friday night...and it was only three points dropped in the end. Shaolin was only a couple of weeks ago I was lauding them for the start I had made with their service. The odds of the selections then were no longer than they were today. Strike Zone have made a profit today; it may be a small one, but over the last few weeks they have been the absolute model of consistency. 4PA are running at a five month ROI in excess of 50% - who the hell am I to question their methods!?! PJA NH - do I really believe they introduced a new staking system on a whim? Of course not. Paul would have analysed his figures and will have made the change because he strongly believes that in the long run it will produce better returns. How many years have PJA been successful? Put it this way - too many to start writing them off after a poor six weeks, that's for sure!

Now we can see why days like today are so dangerous, why they are the Sirens of the gambling world, leading weak-minded punters into treacherous waters. It is easy to be consistent with staking when things are going well. It is easy to say that the long-term is the important thing when you are winning. Slapping oneself on the back for choosing to follow the right services is all too simple when profits are going up. Tonight though, these things are a bit harder to do, but the simple fact is that nothing has changed from last weekend, when profits - and moods - were good.

I think perhaps Kipling had it right when he wrote of treating those two imposters the same. And those Gremlins? They can go to hell!

Today's Action

Today has been my second worst day of gambling since I started. Still, it would be remiss of me not to praise Chasemaster who found a 9/1 winner (Reindeer Dippin - Ayr) and also advised each way the horse that finished second to it (Raystock - 9/1 (SP 7/2!)), and Skeeve who found three winners from three with his 'Late BSS' service and two from four from his main service bets (and Wrexham was another selection, winning 2-1 until the 82nd minute...they lost 3-2!). He has had a cracking 2011 so far.

I also struck lucky with The Sportsman Racing service, which seemed to go mad today, throwing out five bets, a couple of which were at much longer prices than they usually go for. I put the first bet on - an each way advice that finished second at 7/1 - but left the rest as I was finding that I was spending my time on the mobile placing bets instead of enjoying the company of my son during our pre-Arsenal match meal. The remaing four selections all lost!

4PA: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
PJA NH: Staked 5pts, -2.913pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +0.05pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.7pts, +0.048pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 1pt, +1.063pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, +0.375pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £62.10.

Skeeve: Staked 28pts, +6.56pts.
Strike Zone: Staked 3pts, +0.18pts.
Football Investor: Staked 9pts, -3pts.
Shaolin Betting: Staked 4pts, -3pts.
Sports Investor: Staked 2pts, +0.25pts.
Financial loss on the football of £712.60.

Saturday 12th February: Staked £2,322, -£774.70.
Week to date: Staked £3,366.50, -£1,148.75.
Month to date: Staked £8,088.50, -£325.23, roi -4.02%.

Right, wounds licked...time to put tomorrow's football bets on...


  1. Yes a stinker of a day but step back and take the wider view. you are 325down for the month which is very much recoverable (is that a word lol) and about the same down for the year! ok, so you are showing no profit so far for the year but remember, this isn t your day job. you still have your wages to pay the bills and whilst this is the case you should see your gambling as no more than a hobby which on occasion will make you some extra money. The minute you start to expect, or even worse, rely on a profit from gambling, it will turn round and bite you on the bum. Your portfolio im sure will make you money but patience is required. Dont be afraid to adjust stakes on under performing services if it helps your mental state or even take a break from that service. Remember its a marathon mot a sprint and your past years P and L is fantastic. Keep the faith and Chill out Maaaan LOL

  2. What an absolute shocker of a day mate! The football couldnt have gone any worse really. West Brom cost me around 400 quid.....brutal.

    Thought we could get something back from Palermo this morning then find out they went down 4-2...Hopefully Footie Elite is ready to start his road to recovery.

  3. Hi Anon,

    Everything you say is completely true and full of common sense. If it's ok, I'll refer to your comment in tonight's (Sunday's) post and add a few thoughts.

    All the best,


  4. Hi FF,

    "Shocker" and "Brutal" sum yesterday up pretty well, I reckon. I didn't quite suffer so much as you with West Brom, but not far off. I think that is where the problem lay yesterday - when the scores came up on the bug screen at The Emirates yesterday, I committed the cardinal sin of believing that the West Brom result was safe. As it was the biggest result of the day, that felt pretty good and why everything came as such a kick in the teeth when the final score came through.

    Still, got home today and it seems that FE came good. Hopefully that'll be a spark.

    Cheers, mate.