Monday, 14 February 2011

Not much love around this Valentine's Day!

Before detailing another day of recriminations and woe, there's something I want to touch on.

I'm not sure if this is a good thing or bad, but I am constantly analysing my portfolio and the individual services within it. I don't necessarily mean the stats, more the mode of operandi; searching for clues as to the mental state of the people providing the selections, examining whether selection or staking policy has altered and if so, whether it is an early warning sign that things are not quite as they should be.

The problem is that such analysis is not an exact science. The method of research relies almost entirely upon the interpretation of clues. Naturally, when something is open to interpretation, it is also open to misinterpretation. Rarely does drawing conclusions involve a simple issue of asking whether something is metaphorically either black or white.

There are a couple of services in particular that are coming under my microscope... The Sportsman Racing and Sports Investor. For different reasons, I am beginning to ask some questions.

To be honest, The Sportsman Racing is not under any serious threat of being discarded. My concern is simply that the last couple of days have seen a flux of selections, many of which have been at longer prices than the majority of their selections have been historically. Looking at their website, they have been known to tip longer priced horses, but not with the regularity of those they pick which are 5/2 or under. I need to watch closely though - if the number of bets rises somewhat, then quite frankly I will be overstaking the service; I will have the same problem as I had with PJA NH last month.

The other service under the spotlight is Sports Investor, and for no other reason than the performance over the last twelve months has been poor. I don't want to use this blog as a medium for criticising a service unless it is on the grounds of customer service. It is not for me to complain about selection criteria - if I didn't trust the service's methods, why would I pay them a subscription fee? But ultimately, there does come a time when you have to say enough is enough. Is a year a long enough period from which to draw conclusions? I think so, yes.

Today's Action

This really is a poor period. Of 19 horse racing bets today, only one found a return (PJA NH - Bocciani - Catterick - 14/1). Naturally, my smallest stake of the day went on this! Northern Monkey Punter, ProBandit, On The Nose, The Sportsman Racing, and Chasemaster all failed to produce.

Just to round things off and get the week off to what is, quite frankly, a terrible start, Sports Investor's selection tonight, Chelsea at -0.75 on the handicap, was a loser. The only consolation is that it was Chelsea! (Sorry, Blues fans).

PJA NH: Staked 3pts, +1.219pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 3pts, -3pts.
ProBandit: Staked 2.25pts, -2.25pts.
On The Nose: Staked 2.75pts, -2.75pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.125pts, -0.125pts.
Financial loss on the racing of £248.12.

Sports Investor: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Financial loss on the football of £100.

Monday 14th February: Staked £432.50, -£348.12.
Week to date: Staked £432.50, -£348.12.
Month to date: Staked £8,996, -£521.83, roi 5.8%.

Valentine's Day? Pah!


  1. Hi TPI

    I believe you have hit on something when you talk about the psychological state of the people behind the services.

    As punters the pressures are great enough add into the mix the extra pressure of other peoples expectations and I suppose there will be some tipsters who will give in to those pressures and as you say if there is a way of noticing the early warning signs it could save a lot of money.

    Keep up the good work

  2. Hi Mark,

    The only thing I'd add to what you've said is that it's one thing watching out for and even recognising the warning signs. It's another thing entirely to act on your convictions.

    I was thinking about this last night and the impact on overall portfolio performance decisions on individual services can have. I'll post some thoughts tonight.

    All the best,


  3. I'm afraid I have to agree with what you said about Sports Investor. They haven't made any profit since December 2009 (in fact, they've made a loss) and the damage they've done to my portfolio this season is huge - I'm now eight and a half points down (at one-point flat stakes) which is a helluva lot considering the high stakes. They'd have to go on an amazing run to get those points back by the end of the season and, with their methods and types of selections in mind, we'd probably have to see a lot of underpriced big names winning away from home, at solid home teams, by a couple of goals. Is this the right time to count the losses and stop following them? Should I continue to follow them and stop once they get to, let's say, -10 (even though being at -8.5 in mid-February after only 63 bets in six months is probably horrible enough as it is)? I'm not sure, but I'll have to decide as soon as possible.


  4. Hi Skeeve,

    Yeah, I'm afraid you're right and when you put it like that, it really does throw a stark light on the situation.

    It's a shame because I like their style, and for my first few months of my being with them they were also profitable.

    Good question as to when you actually stop following (if you stop following). Food for thought...

    All the best,