Monday, 28 February 2011

February Racing Review

Well, the first thing today is to note that the month ended in profit. Not a particularly impressive amount, I grant you, but any sort of profit in a month that seems to have been such hard work perhaps isn't too shabby. Of course, once subscription fees are accounted for then the balance falls into the negatives, but to be honest, I think I'll settle for this this month in the hope and expectation that there are better times ahead.

So, without further ado, let's pass a little comment on each of the racing services in the portfolio. The first figures are those attained this month, the figures in italics/brackets those for that service from 1st January this year.

4PA: Staked 16.5pts, +13.625pts, roi 82.57% (Staked 29.5pts, +11.625pts, roi 39.4%). This service has, quite simply, become the keystone of my portfolio. It's performance since I joined last year has been outstanding, and certainly the equal of all that I read that Equine Investments has achieved in the past. Although getting up early on a Saturday to get the bets on has been a bit of a pain, it all feels worth it when the profits are totted up. Of course, if ever a service was due a correction, this would be it, but I desperately hope that it doesn't come this month. Cheltenham is likely to be a very busy time for the service, and the way it is staked, 4PA has the potential to make or break March on it's own.

On The Nose: Staked 39.5pts, +12.412pts, roi 31.42% (Staked 90.5pts, +54.836pts, roi 60.59%). How pleased am I to have joined OTN before the subs limit was reached? An roi of over 60% from two month's worth of results is not to be sniffed at, and I hate to think where I would be were it not for On The Nose and 4PA. This level of performance cannot be maintained, and there will come a time when OTN goes through a losing run. Odds are attainable, the bets are well reasoned, and the service is cheap. Not a bad combination.

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 19.8pts, +0.229pts, roi 1.15% (Staked 33.1pts, -0.006pts, roi -0.01%). I have made a lot of profit in the past with WRT but for the last six to nine months the service has stood still somewhat. Having to keep an eye on the ease of getting the bets on and although this month I have experienced just one or two difficulties in this respect, it is nothing too alarming yet. In the context of what has happened with a number of the racing services this month, standing still is perhaps quite an achievement, although I'll be looking for an improvement soon.

Chasemaster: Staked 13.75pts, -0.606pts, roi -4.4% (Staked 23.875pts, +3.22pts, 13.48%). Perhaps that last statement regarding WRT applies equally to Chasemaster this month. Certainly the overall profit so far this year is acceptable. I have mentioned some idiosyncracies of the service in the past and these show no sign of abating. Backing a horse at 9/2 each way in a five runner field is something that quite frankly I find mystifying, sending bets through at unexpectedly late doesn't make for an easy life, but it sure does keep you on your toes!

ProBandit: Staked 33.575pts, -4.843pts, roi -14.42% (Staked 59.655pts, -3.997pts, roi -6.7%). For what is usually such a reliable and consistent service, these last two months have been disappointing. There have however, been just a couple of small signs that a refinding of form is just around the corner (not least of all today!). A 7/1 winner last week and a 7/1 winner already this, perhaps Paul is beginning to rediscover his mojo...I have high hopes for ProBandit in March.

PJA NH: Staked 57.5pts, -12.867pts, roi -22.37% (Staked 122.5pts, -25.892pts, roi -21.13%). What I am extremely grateful for is recognising that my £/point value was too high witht his service last month and that I made the necessary adjustments, for it has been another very poor month for PJA, following a very poor month in January. However, this service has a habit of enduring a poor period and then producing a purple patch and I don't see the last two months as being the sign of a more serious malaise. They are though, a third of their bank down in turns of points lost in this losing run. Let's hope March sees PJA fare better; I have a sneaky feeling that it might.

Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 28.5pts, -14.446pts, roi -50.68% (Staked 74.5pts, -17.166pts, roi -23.04%). What a truly horrible month for NMP. The only saving grace was that the service seemed to be lightly staked in February compared with previous staking levels, so in terms of actual money lost, I may have got away with it a touch (still the best part of £300 down, though). We'll see. It is too early for me to start commenting on the service. I only joined in January and although it's obviously not been a great start, I'm not too concerned at this stage.

Overall in February, I staked £7,086 on the nags, and finished £204.27 up at an roi of 2.88%. It's not been pretty at times, but this may be a period we look back at and realise that hanging in there was a pretty decent thing to do. Roll on Cheltenham!

Today's Action

As mentioned above, all plaudits today must go to ProBandit. Two races played in, two winners (Black Coffee - Wolverhampton - 5/2 and Una Pelota - Wolverhampton - 7/1) and the third horse suggested, a dutch bet in Black Coffee's race, finished a short head second. That is race-reading to be proud of.

PJA NH and Northern Monkey Punter finished the month doing the same as they have been doing for the best part of February...firing blanks. Come on chaps, time to turn the ship around!

PJA NH: Staked 2.5pts, -2.5pts.
Northern Monkey Punter: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
ProBandit: Staked 1.5pts, +4.15pts.
Financial profit on the racing of £96.

**Thanks to a sharp-eyed poster in the Comments section yesterday, it was pointed out to me that The Shepherd King, an On The Nose each way selection, actually finished in the frame, and was not a loser as I had stated. This made yesterday a marginally profitable day, and the figures posted at the end of the day inaccurate.

Monday 28th February: Staked £130, +£96.
Week to date: Staked £130, +£96.
February 2011: Staked £16,682, +£57.17, roi 0.34%.
Year to date: Staked £32,443.50, -£216.50, roi -0.66%.

Tomorrow I'll do the footie, although it may be a late post as I'll be watching the Chelsea/Man Utd match.


  1. Hi
    Peter here from Chasemaster and I hope you don't mind me posting a comment on your interesting blog. I don't understand the problem with a 9/2 shot each way in a 5 runner race. The raw odds of a place are 2/5 (40%) and at 1/4 the odds returns a small profit on the place. Many services, mine included yesterday, have backed a 5/1 shot for a place in an 8 runner race without comment. The raw odds are 3/8 (37.5%) and the place only returns your stake.

  2. Hi Peter,

    Many thanks for posting - certainly don't mind...the opposite of minding, in fact. :)

    I don't know if you've read yesterday's post yet (2nd March) but I talk about how a different perspective provided by someone else can affect one's own outlook on something...

    The way you have explained things, Peter, I can see the sense. Had I ever considered backing an each way bet at 9/2 in a 5 runner race in such a way before? Absolutely not. Which probably explains why I'd never make it as a tipster (that and not being able to pick winners!).

    The mindset I have always had regarding each way betting is that with eight runners, the third place on offer as part of the "frame" makes the bet value. Seven runners or less means the horse should be backed win only. This outlook was probably set in my mind about twenty years ago by a reader's letter published in the back of the Raceform Update!

    Anyway, I see your point of view and accept the slap on the wrist that I deserve.

    Thanks for picking me up on it - and please don't hesitate to do so again in the future if I need bringing into line!

    All the best,