Sunday, 15 April 2012

Catch up.

Anyone on Neptune Collonges, then? I was, but only after the race had finished and I was looking at the Racing Post, examining it's form.

Now I appreciate that having just watched the race run it is a little easier to pick the winner. Sure it is. But, NC finished in the frame in the Cheltenham Gold Cup a little while ago. And it had just run a cracking trial race at Haydock when a close second to Giles Cross. And apparently it was joint second on the Timeform ratings. And - and this is the clincher for me - it was a grey. Now, no grey has won it for about 1,012 years, so let's face it, we were due a grey winner. It's all so obvious when I put it like this, isn't it?

Yeah, you see. I put it like that and you're all slapping your forehead with the palm of you hands going, "Doh!". Still, don't be too hard on yourselves. No-one has quite the post race insight that I can give. It's a level of talent not many can boast.

Been quiet in here. Been busy, that's the problem. Bloody work getting in the way again.

The truth of it is though, that I've been doing a heck of a lot of work ("behind the scenes" if we want to sound all mysterious about it) into setting myself up for next season's football betting. I know, I know, this season hasn't finished yet, but as you will have read previously on this blog, the emphasis of my portfolio has changed/is changing. On a serious note, I actually think I can make huge strides forward over the next twelve months and put my betting on a different level to the one it is on at the moment. The only reason for this is that - as we've discussed until we're blue in the face - our beloved BOG bookmakers don't play fair. I don't mind bowling into the wind for a spell, but when the wind has the strength of a hurricane and in fact is whipped up by the forces of hell and not only blows hard but throws John Terry's soiled and festering knackers into your face as you approach the crease, bowling just becomes plain tiresome. Believe me, I've been there.

It was actually having an email discussion with Skeeve that opened my eyes to what can be achieved if playing in a sport in which one can; a. get bets on, and b. raise stakes as you grow. Seriously, it sounds like a brave and bright new world out there. JT's streaked Y-fronts do not play a part. And that prospect alone makes me all happy inside.

So anyway, cutting a long story mercifully short, I've been running tests, analysing results, experimenting with different staking plans to see how season 2011/12 would have fared had I been actually following some of my ideas. I've also been promised some expert help on running my football betting portfolio by an expert on that sort of thing and whose brain works in an entirely different way to mine (more efficiently, for a start) and who is therefore able to point things out for me to consider that I would otherwise never have pondered upon. I'm hoping to talk much more about this on here, but it won't be for a little while just yet.

So, exciting times ahead.

One last thing. A contributor to this blog in days past was a fine chap called Andy, who to be quite honest with you tends to talk a lot more sense than me (which is why I obviously posted up the comments he made as proper blog posts). Anyway, Andy has for a while now been working on developing his own systems for playing the horses and I believe he's had a heck of a lot of success. He's proofing them in the SBC forum and has developed his own site ( so non-SBC members needn't feel like the kid who was always picked last in the playgorund and then never allowed out of goal. So if you're reading, Tony O'Reilly, of St.Wilfrid's CoE Junior School, Northenden, 1977-1982 - you can follow too. I've added a link to the right. Have a look - pretty impressive stuff.

I'll be back over the next couple of days or so I'm sure, at least with a bit of a round-up as to how the actual betting has been going. For those of you who simply can't handle that sort of anticipation (and I imagine those of you that fall into that category must run into thousands), it can be neatly summed up as horses poor, football good. Until yesterday. Then it was horses poor, football poor. Pfft.

Over and out.


  1. Hi Rowan. I would like your thoughts on the following: If I am able to price up a horse race (to a good degree for arguments sake), then using my tissue prices, bet to either back or lay ANY horse (so could be multiple selections in a race, i.e. 3 poor value lays, 4 good value backs in one race if 10% over/under value), then if based on probability and taking value prices, over the long run (a year) I should be in profit. I accept that my ROI would be small, but the turnover would make this worthwhile. What are your thoughts on this sort of approach, or am I barking up the wrong tree? In a nutshell..I would be playing the numbers game. All help and advice would be appreciated. Thank You

  2. Hi Rowan nice to hear that at least football is doing ok ;) .i wanted to add something and im going to mention it on your blog because some of your followers are Andrew followers too.What a GENTLE MAN is Andrew of The TVB .He is just a great man.Hope to see him back in Autumn.

  3. Hi Abu,

    I think what you're suggesting would work very well. The fundamentals seem to all be in place and as long as you are sure that you are backing and laying at the right prices, ie. prices that don't truly reflect the real chances of the event happening, then you should do well.

    I have come to realise myself recently that roi is far from being everything. Return on Capital is much more important and if you're churning over your money more, the roi can be lower but you end up making good cash profits which at the end of the day, is THE most important thing.

    I know there are others who do what you do, but then only pick out one horse in a race to back/lay. I can't see why having more than one in a race would be an issue though, as long as the prices are right.

    Good luck with it.


  4. Hi Fabian,

    Nice to hear from you again.

    You're right - Andrew is a thoroughly decent chap. Supports Liverpool mind you, so he's not perfect! :)