Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Sometimes, all you can do is laugh.

So in my last post I explain how, with an eye to reducing the number of bets I need place on the horses and thus reduce the pressure on my bookmaker accounts, I have had to take certain measures. One of these measures is to only back those selections from Northern Monkey that have an outlay of at least 0.75 points. The decision was made for all the right reasons. Wayne had on a couple of occasions pointed out the better roi that would have been achieved had this policy been followed from the start of his service.

So having been a member of Northern Monkey since January 2011, this week I change my policy and ignore the 0.25pt ew bets. Today, Wayne rather spectacularly picked out a 12/1 winning double. How was it staked? Yep, you guessed it. 0.25 points each way.

After kicking an imaginary cat, I've now calmed down a little and rationalised everything. Firstly, I'm really chuffed for Wayne as this double brings to an end a bit of a sticky patch he'd endured. Secondly, my decision only represents a mistake if I suddenly revert back to the way I previously followed the selections and now start backing the 0.25pt each way bets again, just because I've missed a nice win. Consistency is key, and my decision was made after a rational analysis of three years worth of results. Nothing has changed. Yes, I need to keep an eye on things, and if over the next six months we see that I have missed out on a considerable amount of profit, then I will have a decision to make. But that decision is not for now.

The other notable thing that's occured is connected to The Sportsman Racing service. Yesterday was supposed to be a new start. A day to day life of fewer horse racing bets.

In this context, you can't help but giggle at Scott's opening paragraph to yesterday's email...

One main account selection and four horse-racing bets. I've decided to throw caution to the wind on the racing bets. Last April gathered the racing site an awful lot of profit and although the flat season has not started too well and there's a worry regarding the ground turning too soft there's a small window for these bets and it's time to take the risk.

Scott is right. If you look at the results last April they were quite outstanding and obviously Scott believes that this is a time of year that will allow him to cash in. A nice profit today with two winners found (Alive And Kicking - Catterick - 100/30 and Boucher Garcon - Catterick - 9/4), but thigs weren't so good yesterday. Three losers, which is fine, but the first bet I placed turned out not to be an account bet after all. Trouble is, I found that out too late. So instead of dropping 1.5 points yesterday, I dropped two.

My luck's not been in over the last couple of days, has it?

Just one other thing to note. May I just say thankyou to Jason of HCE (see link to right). He's kindly featured this blog on their pop-up website. Much appreciated.

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