Wednesday, 4 April 2012

A shift in attitude.

Flamin' 'eck! Where did that come from? I was in t-shirt and shorts mowing the lawn on Sunday. Wake up this morning to great big fluffy snowflakes coming tumbling out of the sky!

I mentioned yesterday that I'd post a few thoughts on how I feel that my mindset is going to have to alter a little with a portfolio that had more weighting towards football betting and less on horse racing.

I ran a theoretical "What if" exercise over the weekend. That is, trying to get an accurate impression of how I might feel when following my future portfolio.

Doing this is simple. It is simply a case of logging all bets for each service over the last six months and seeing what the ups and downs were if staking to intended levels. Doing this is a real eye opener and is an exercise I would recommend to anyone before actually enlisting with a tipping service. It's all very well seeing that a service has an overall roi of 20%+, but if you're not prepared for the levels of volatility that might be associated with the service, it can be a recipe for disaster. It's a mistake I made more than once when I first started following tipsters.

I'm glad I took the time to do this exercise. December was a bad month for many of the football tipsters, and with having a much larger £/point value with football, the losing run that occurred would have meant my losing far more in terms of hard cash than I have ever previously done. In terms of percentages of banks, then it was nothing out of the ordinary, but how would I have felt losing £3-4k? Not great obviously, but at least next season, when such a losing spell is sure to be repeated, I'll be ready for it. I think.

You can see from the above though, that mentally, a slight shift in outlook is needed. It was noticeable that for much of the period I recorded the results as they happened on a daily basis, a little was lost or a little gained - at times it felt as if progress was very slow. But when things went well, profits mounted very quickly in terms of money in the bank, and when things went badly, money was lost at a rate which would have been a completely new experience to me. It was also noticeable that on the busier days, I was laying out a lot more hard cash than I'm used to too, which would probably take a little getting used to. Still, I have all summer to get myself prepared mentally.

Matthew left an interesting comment after yesterday's post. He is experiencing exactly the same problems as I am with regards account restrictions, and feels a very similar way to myself about the whole thing. More on that tomorrow.

Today's Betting

The Market Examiner found a winner today (Earcomesthedream - Hereford) upon which odds of 9.22/1 were secured via BetButler. However, a rather brutal Rule 4 applied which reduced the return to 5.532/1. A nice tip nonetheless.

No success today for The Sportsman Racing (0/1) or Chasemaster (0/1).

The Market Examiner: Staked 2pts, +4.532pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Chasemaster: Staked 0.125pts, -0.125pts.

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