Wednesday, 3 April 2013

Review for March 2013 - Horse Racing

March was a good month. If, as an investor, you're not pleased with an roi of 14.59% across the portfolio, then you either set very high standards or you're a miserable git!

Let's take a look back and sum it all up, starting with the racing.

Last month I wrote the following about On The Nose:

I feel that the service just needs the rub of the green and given it, has the potential to fly again. I certainly want to give it every chance to do so. Ultimately though, a line has to be drawn somewhere, at some time. Let's hope that time can be avoided.

How pleased I am that I persevered with The Judge and decided that the time wasn't right to be drawing any lines. What happened to this service in March fundamentally changed the way I look at services and how long I should give an underperforming tipster to turn things around. My blog posts on this subject in March led to Matt of Football Elite sending through an article which I linked to in here, which in turn was published by the SBC in their forum. This subsequently led to the start of an ongoing debate that I'm sure the SBC members that read this blog have followed with interest.

On The Nose excelled at Cheltenham. You know I try to remain as detached as I possibly can from the bets I place. Sure, I enjoy the big wins although I'm pretty good at not getting carried away when they happen, and similarly I generally succeed at avoiding getting too gloomy and doomy when things aren't going so well. Occasionally though, something happens that makes such an impression that it goes down in a personal betting Hall of Fame, providing a memory that will remain forever as clear as if the event had happened just the day before. Backing Carrickboy at 65/1 on Betfair, on the recommendation of On The Nose, and then watching the horse bravely make all before gamely plugging on up that gruelling Cotswold hill to cross the line first, is one such occasion. Truly marvellous.

The big priced winners didn't stop there though. The preceding Saturday saw First Avenue tipped up at 22/1, Lord Windermere, winner of the RSA Chase, had been supported antepost at 20/1. There were winners at odds of 6/1 and 8/1 too, aswell as a couple or three at shorter prices. It's been a heck of a month and just as it's easy to criticise services when results are poor, so too must we praise them when things go well. TJ - well done!
Staked 37.75pts, +36.077pts, roi 95.56%
(ytd: Staked 86.5pts, +22.202pts, roi 25.66%, ROC 22.2%)

March was another very impressive month for Northern Monkey. Wayne must be delighted with the way 2013 has gone so far. Indeed, Wayne is so pleased with the way his all weather season has gone since he slightly modified his selection criteria that he is now carrying these methodologies into the turf season, hopefully leading to a similar set of results.

Highlights in March include Ladies Are Forever at 10/1 and Clear Praise at 11/1, but what I was really impressed by was the way that Cheltenham was, apart from a small multi-bet which I didn't get involved with anyway, ignored. NMP's strength is obviously the flat, and much as I love the Festival, as an investor I would much rather back a 2/1 winner at Southwell (which NMP provided on the first day of Cheltenham) than a loser at the Festival. Wayne did produce for his members a superb written review of a Cheltenham preview evening he attended which was both great to read and an illustration of how customer-focused Wayne is, but when it came to the betting, he steered clear and stuck to his strengths.
Staked 30.75pts, +9.135pts, roi 29.7%
(ytd: Staked 83pts, 26.095pts, roi 31.43%, ROC 43.49%

A relatively quiet month for Winning Racing Tips but nicely profitable nonetheless. Not a great deal to comment on really. This service just keeps plugging away, doing the business, and there's a heck of a lot to be said for that. Well, erm, actually not that much to be said I guess, as I'm struggling to think of anything to say. You know what I mean though.
Staked: 4.9pts, +2.162pts, roi 44.12%
(ytd: Staked 21.9pts, +8.82pts, roi 40.27%, ROC 29.4%

A quiet month for The Sportsman Racing (although slightly busier than last month) with a small profit registered. Long term figures are excellent and the time of year we're approaching has in the past, been a relatively busy one for Scott.
Staked 2.55pts, +0.216pts, roi 8.49%
(ytd: Staked 8.05pts, +1.277pts, roi 15.86%, ROC 5.1%)

So the only racing service to lose money this month was 4PA, but the deficit is the least of my worries with this service. I have no doubt whatsoever that the profits will return, and likely with a bang when they do. My issue is that I am finding it increasingly difficult to get on. In the past, I've always been able to have each bookmaker site open so that when the bets come through, I'd be on them like a shot. Now though, I am rarely able to get on with just the one bookmaker and the need to split the stake over two or even three slows me right down. Of course this in turn means that by the time I've covered one bet, the odds on the others have all but disappeared. More frustratingly, some of the bookies I use, particularly Corals, refer the bet to a trader and many a time have I been waiting for the bet to be accepted or rejected but in the time it takes to find out, the 5-10 minute window of opportunity that exists when the bookies revert to the advertised prices on all Pricewise selections has closed (Paddy Power will only let me have about £2 on this price anyway!). All in all, it's a bit of a mess, through no fault of the service itself. It's both a pain in the arse and a real shame because I like the service, but I just can't see a solution other than having pseudo accounts, and my current circumstances just doesn't allow for this. I intend to persevere, at least until my subscription period is up if possible.
Staked 52.2pts, -13.325pts, roi -25.52%
(ytd: Staked 83.2pts, -30.447pts, roi -36.59%, ROC -38.09%)

All in all it was a cracking month on the nags, returning an ROI figure of 21.98%. This has boosted the year to date ROI on the horses to xxx%

Now, this post has gotten rather lengthy, so I will delay the review of the Sports portfolio until tomorrow, and then all things being equal, write the "reveal all" post on Friday. Bear with me.

Tuesday 2nd April
Not such a great day for On The Nose, not helped by two of the five selections falling before each race really got serious. In all there were no winners from five bets, although one found the frame at a decent price (Burn And Turn - Fairyhouse - 16/1).

On The Nose: Staked 5.5pts, -3.4pts.


  1. Paddy Powers reputation isn't what it seems is it?
    You must be 3 times more successful than me as they will lay me £6 on any horse!!But alas old Boylesports wont lay a penny,same as Stan James.Betbutler account just opened!

    1. Good luck with Bet Butler. I tried it s little while ago and they seemed to be having teething problems so I gave up. It may be something I go back to at a later date though.

      re. PP - they're ok (not perfect) at other times for me; it's just that 5-10 minute window that the bookies allow the Pricewise horses to be backed at the odds advertised in the Racing Post that they limit me to a couple of quid. Bit naughty really.

      I've been through two Boylesports accounts. Learnt my lesson after the first - don't place a football bet with them. I stuck to racing only with my second account and it lasted a lot longer. Possibly a coincidence but others have said similar.



  2. Any idea if betfair fixed odds with BOg will solve your bookie problems? surely it wont have restrictions?

    1. It's a thought, isn't it. I've not explored this option yet but now you mention it, it may be worth a go. I know I've read on other blogs that the fixed odds section of Betfair is poor, but always good to judge these things for yourself.

      Thanks for the suggestion,


  3. I personally would consider Betfair sp not the fixed odds(they are poor,or have been when Ive looked at)