Before I start wittering on again, may I just say that if anyone disagrees with what I write, then please do use the Comments box to say so. This has always been a place for constructive debate, so as long as the comment amounts to more than, "You're a dick cos you support Arsenal", then I'll always explore things further in the main blog. I mean, I may be a dick, but that is entirely incidental to who I support. I could support United and I'd be an even bigger dick, couldn't I?
Anyway, following on from yesterday's musings on the subject of odds recording and all that...
I strongly believe that as I said yesterday, ultimately the way to realise the maximum potential of our results is down to us and what we do. For example, I know that frequently, the Football Elite bets drift in price the closer it gets to kick off. Therefore it makes sense to wait until as late as possible before striking these bets. It doesn't happen all the time, but frequently enough to make a difference. Certainly I don't see any need for a mad rush to get the bets on at 6.00 on the Friday evening.
Contrast this to The Football Analyst, many of whose bets do seem to contract in price as time goes on. With TFA I always try to get the bets placed as soon as I can. It's not always possible for me to do this on a Thursday evening, but still, as soon as I get the chance to strike the bets, I do, knowing that often, the price will continue to contract. Summer Of Football is different again. Generally speaking I can get very close to the suggested odds by placing the bets quickly but occasionally the price does contract rapidly, usually if the team we're supporting is playing in a league that attracts less market liquidity. However, like Football Elite, the odds do often bounce back out as the market matures, so if I do miss a price by some margin, I will wait to see what odds I might get later. It's not a foolproof system, but I reckon it works frequently enough to add a little to my bottom line figures. I am just adopting this strategy with Skeeve's Asian Handicap bets and will run with it from now until the end of the season to see what happens.
It is a completely different scenario when it comes to horse racing. I have tried, with the exception of 4PA, to mould the racing side of my portfolio into a shape which doesn't open itself up to being vulnerable to rapidly shrinking odds. In other, plainer words, I try and follow services whose selections don't cause an immediate collapse in prices. I allow odds availability on selections to dictate to me which services I follow. The prices on the Northern Monkey and On The Nose tips do tend to shorten, but not very often is it that they disappear in a blink as they do with some other services. I believe, from what I read in forums and from what people tell me who are or have been subscribers, that this can often be an issue with Equine Investments and Systematic Betting. Both are fantastically successful services that can boast superb long term results, but a big part of our edge that they provide would be eroded if unable to act quickly enough when the bets are sent through. There's no way my own personal circumstances would allow me to jump on their bets as soon as they hit my inbox, and so these services are not suitable for my needs. I think we as investors perhaps understate the importance of this factor at times, instead getting carried away, as it is so easy to be, by such an attractive performance record that these services can boast via the various proofing services and their own web pages.
To conclude, I believe that as investors in other services, we have to rely on two fundamental priniciples.
- 1. We should always analyse the way a service works and what happens to the prices on the bets they give between release and off time, so that we can formulate a plan/strategy as to how we can maximise returns from that service. We have to accept that this plan will differ from service to service; and
- 2. We need to look beyond the simple ROI figures and other means of service assessment, using them as a pointer/guide as to which services to consider adding to our portfolios and steer away from using them as the sole deciding factor. Returns may appear spectacular, but that's not much use if your own circumstances prevent you from exploiting the service's potential.
Wednesday 10th April
A quiet day, but a pleasantly profitable one, thanks (again) to Northern Monkey. Like the previous day, just the one bet (O Ma Lad - Catterick - 6/1), well supported on course into 7/2 before winning rather cosily. Fine stuff!
No luck for Sportyy (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.6pts.
Sportyy: Staked 2pts, -2pts.