I feel a bit daft. I got the blog going again, and almost as soon as I've started, I'm going to stop again...but only temporarily.
You may remember I mentioned finding a new place for the blog, and I think I've found it, but as part of a bigger project that is going to take a few weeks to get organised and started properly. It's something I've been thinking about doing for quite a while, and if I don't do it now I never will. However, it is going to take up the majority of my time and trying to do all this and write the blog is proving an impossible task bearing in mind I'm limited to the evenings to do what's necessary.
So bear with me. The blog is back. But soon, rather than now.
Saturday, 23 January 2016
Monday, 11 January 2016
Taking a price.
Well thank goodness the "romance" and "magic" and "tradition" of FA Cup 3rd round weekend is over for another year. Honestly, I'm beginning to view the third round of the FA Cup with the same jaundiced eye and level of cynicism as I do Black Friday.
FA Cup "romance" = full strength teams, Saturday 3.00 kick offs, being glued to the radio as they flit from commentary to commentary to chase the potential shocks, endless replays played on increasingly muddy pitches, and John Motson/Barry Davies commentating on MoTD.
FA Cup "magic" or "tradition" does NOT include making supporters travel 250 miles on a Friday night with no way of getting home by public transport, 6.00pm Sunday kick offs, pink balls (see last year), a Cup Final starting at 5.30, Championship teams resting players, or a variety of broadcasters buggering things up for their own benefit and then foisting Robbie Savage and Michael Owen on us all.
And the sooner they just let the crowd sing Abide With Me and the national anthem at Wembley and dump the screeching bird in a ball gown who looks like she's about to lay an egg, the better!
*Deep breath*
Right, how's everyone's punting been? For me, 2016 has so far limped along with no discernible progress made or regress suffered. But I have stuck so far to my New Year's betting resolution, which is to refuse to chase prices and ensure that every bet I place, has value.
To be fair to myself, I've long since given up chasing a price right down well below the line where any sane bettor would stop and lose interest. I reckon doing this, for fear of missing winners, is one of the most common mistakes new bettors make. The mentality I had when I started out was that having a 5/1 winner was better than nothing, never mind the fact that the tipster I was following had perhaps advised the bet at 10/1 and probably saw some value down to about 8/1.
Even now, it stings when I don't strike a bet on a horse because I can't get a price, only to see the nag waltz home barely breaking sweat. In an attempt to ease this particular pain I started to note how much I saved by refusing to back horses at odds significantly below those advised, which then went on to lose. I'm telling you, the amount soon adds up. Try it. It will help put things into perspective when you miss out on a winner.
You do need to exercise some common sense of course. If I can only get 18/1 on a horse advised at 25s, I'll take it. Why? Because mentally I know that missing out on what would, after all, still be an excellent winner would be very hard to take. Besides, these circumstances arise very rarely. I'm not tipped many horses at 25/1 and so although I accept that the same principle of value applies when they are, I also acknowledge how important it is to maintain a level of mental equilibrium if you hope to succeed at this game. If there's one thing that's going to make me go off on one is missing an 18/1 winner because I had drawn the line at 20s. I am however, quite comfortable now missing a 6/1 winner on a horse tipped at say, 9s.
So where do you draw the line, because draw one you must...? Answers on a postcard.
Betting for January to date
I thought I'd post results this way, instead of a day to day update, which quite frankly, can be a little dull.
Even The Odds: Staked 50pts, -1.684pts (missed a couple of winners due to above...and a few losers too!)
Northern Monkey: Staked 7pts, -1.961pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 24pts, -8.495pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 9pts, +2.59pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 27pts, +8.91pts.
Soyloco: n/a (*I don’t back the 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, if anyone’s wondering)
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.
So slow going, the ROI for the year standing at a weak and feeble 0.7%.
To be honest, it's been pretty quiet on the racing front, with the wet weather meaning that The Value Bettor only supplied bets on Friday and Saturday of last week. Having taken a break through the first days of the month in order to recharge his batteries in preparation for the second half the season, this means that there has been very little TVB action so far in 2016.
Soyloco has been spitting out 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, which frankly, I have just ignored. The prices disappear and for many of the bets you need a 188bet account. I do, but not a viable one anymore alas.
Every morning last week it seemed that I would check the overnight PCG (NHL) results to a little 'Yay', and then check the NBA results to a little *sigh*. Talk about giving with one hand and taking with the other. The NFL keeps churning out the profit though, although going 2-1 through the Wild Card weekend was hardly a spectacular performance. But who needs spectacular?
So, could have taken the last ten days or so off. Doesn't work like that though, does it?
Back later in the week.
FA Cup "romance" = full strength teams, Saturday 3.00 kick offs, being glued to the radio as they flit from commentary to commentary to chase the potential shocks, endless replays played on increasingly muddy pitches, and John Motson/Barry Davies commentating on MoTD.
FA Cup "magic" or "tradition" does NOT include making supporters travel 250 miles on a Friday night with no way of getting home by public transport, 6.00pm Sunday kick offs, pink balls (see last year), a Cup Final starting at 5.30, Championship teams resting players, or a variety of broadcasters buggering things up for their own benefit and then foisting Robbie Savage and Michael Owen on us all.
And the sooner they just let the crowd sing Abide With Me and the national anthem at Wembley and dump the screeching bird in a ball gown who looks like she's about to lay an egg, the better!
*Deep breath*
Right, how's everyone's punting been? For me, 2016 has so far limped along with no discernible progress made or regress suffered. But I have stuck so far to my New Year's betting resolution, which is to refuse to chase prices and ensure that every bet I place, has value.
To be fair to myself, I've long since given up chasing a price right down well below the line where any sane bettor would stop and lose interest. I reckon doing this, for fear of missing winners, is one of the most common mistakes new bettors make. The mentality I had when I started out was that having a 5/1 winner was better than nothing, never mind the fact that the tipster I was following had perhaps advised the bet at 10/1 and probably saw some value down to about 8/1.
Even now, it stings when I don't strike a bet on a horse because I can't get a price, only to see the nag waltz home barely breaking sweat. In an attempt to ease this particular pain I started to note how much I saved by refusing to back horses at odds significantly below those advised, which then went on to lose. I'm telling you, the amount soon adds up. Try it. It will help put things into perspective when you miss out on a winner.
You do need to exercise some common sense of course. If I can only get 18/1 on a horse advised at 25s, I'll take it. Why? Because mentally I know that missing out on what would, after all, still be an excellent winner would be very hard to take. Besides, these circumstances arise very rarely. I'm not tipped many horses at 25/1 and so although I accept that the same principle of value applies when they are, I also acknowledge how important it is to maintain a level of mental equilibrium if you hope to succeed at this game. If there's one thing that's going to make me go off on one is missing an 18/1 winner because I had drawn the line at 20s. I am however, quite comfortable now missing a 6/1 winner on a horse tipped at say, 9s.
So where do you draw the line, because draw one you must...? Answers on a postcard.
Betting for January to date
I thought I'd post results this way, instead of a day to day update, which quite frankly, can be a little dull.
Even The Odds: Staked 50pts, -1.684pts (missed a couple of winners due to above...and a few losers too!)
Northern Monkey: Staked 7pts, -1.961pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 24pts, -8.495pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 9pts, +2.59pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 27pts, +8.91pts.
Soyloco: n/a (*I don’t back the 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, if anyone’s wondering)
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.
The Value Bettor: Staked 1.625pts, +1.316pts.
So slow going, the ROI for the year standing at a weak and feeble 0.7%.
To be honest, it's been pretty quiet on the racing front, with the wet weather meaning that The Value Bettor only supplied bets on Friday and Saturday of last week. Having taken a break through the first days of the month in order to recharge his batteries in preparation for the second half the season, this means that there has been very little TVB action so far in 2016.
Soyloco has been spitting out 1pt Sao Paulo Youth Cup bets, which frankly, I have just ignored. The prices disappear and for many of the bets you need a 188bet account. I do, but not a viable one anymore alas.
Every morning last week it seemed that I would check the overnight PCG (NHL) results to a little 'Yay', and then check the NBA results to a little *sigh*. Talk about giving with one hand and taking with the other. The NFL keeps churning out the profit though, although going 2-1 through the Wild Card weekend was hardly a spectacular performance. But who needs spectacular?
So, could have taken the last ten days or so off. Doesn't work like that though, does it?
Back later in the week.
Thursday, 7 January 2016
If the milk turns out to be sour, I ain't the kinda pussy to drink it.
Even The Odds celebrated their first birthday as a commercial racing tipping service last month. That means, despite the fact that as a high turnover service they advised as many as 2,059 bets through 2015, they are relatively untested. Certainly compared to the likes of Equine Investments, Winning Racing Tips or even Northern Monkey, they are mere pups. The consequence of this is that to jump in and follow them at this stage represents something of a risk, but as we will see, there are certain elements to the service that make them a risk that might just be worth taking.
They were brought to my attention by an online friend of mine about halfway through last year. They had been proofing to the Racing Proofing site and their results had been superb. Subs were cheap, so I thought I'd take a look, playing with what were token stakes. As I joined they went on a superb run of form, strong enough to encourage even this cynical old dog! But of course, as is often the way, the hot streak was followed by a real slump. It was then that the folk at Even The Odds started talking about changing the way they did things, introducing a strategy of officially advising only the stronger bets and discarding the weaker which had been dragging down the overall performance. Naturally, that got the alarm bells ringing a little, so when I had lost the exact amount I had originally won, I thought it wise to adopt a watching brief.
Even The Odds transitioned to their new strategy and although results stabilised somewhat through the latter part of the year, they never hit the heights they had reached during the first half of 2015. However, a lot of what I saw showed promise.
Using the strategy that Even The Odds now put forward as the best way to follow their selections, 2015 shows the service generating 238.5 points profit at an ROI of 9% with no BOG uplift. So as we can see, a splendid debut year...238.5% ROC to a 100 point bank is highly impressive, and that profit level rises to 285.1% ROC if you're fortunate enough to have access to BOG accounts!
So here is how I'm going to play it. I'm backing the selections again, to very small stakes. All the other services in the portfolio have been around for much longer and have proven themselves as long term profitable. Put it this way, I will be very (unpleasantly) surprised if I'm not following all of them this time next year. I can't say that for Even The Odds. I do believe the service has a lot of potential, enough indeed to justify taking a small but controlled risk on them. But there remains the potential for it to go sour, and as the inimitable Rory Breaker once said in Lock Stock, "If the milk turns out to be sour, I ain't the kinda pussy to drink it." For now, stakes will be kept small. Very small.
Has anybody else experience of the service? Do please use the 'Comments' box if so. Always good to hear from others and get a debate going.
Yesterday's Betting
Even The Odds: Staked 12pts, -4.105pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 3pts, +0.878pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 2pts, -2pts.
They were brought to my attention by an online friend of mine about halfway through last year. They had been proofing to the Racing Proofing site and their results had been superb. Subs were cheap, so I thought I'd take a look, playing with what were token stakes. As I joined they went on a superb run of form, strong enough to encourage even this cynical old dog! But of course, as is often the way, the hot streak was followed by a real slump. It was then that the folk at Even The Odds started talking about changing the way they did things, introducing a strategy of officially advising only the stronger bets and discarding the weaker which had been dragging down the overall performance. Naturally, that got the alarm bells ringing a little, so when I had lost the exact amount I had originally won, I thought it wise to adopt a watching brief.
Even The Odds transitioned to their new strategy and although results stabilised somewhat through the latter part of the year, they never hit the heights they had reached during the first half of 2015. However, a lot of what I saw showed promise.
Using the strategy that Even The Odds now put forward as the best way to follow their selections, 2015 shows the service generating 238.5 points profit at an ROI of 9% with no BOG uplift. So as we can see, a splendid debut year...238.5% ROC to a 100 point bank is highly impressive, and that profit level rises to 285.1% ROC if you're fortunate enough to have access to BOG accounts!
So here is how I'm going to play it. I'm backing the selections again, to very small stakes. All the other services in the portfolio have been around for much longer and have proven themselves as long term profitable. Put it this way, I will be very (unpleasantly) surprised if I'm not following all of them this time next year. I can't say that for Even The Odds. I do believe the service has a lot of potential, enough indeed to justify taking a small but controlled risk on them. But there remains the potential for it to go sour, and as the inimitable Rory Breaker once said in Lock Stock, "If the milk turns out to be sour, I ain't the kinda pussy to drink it." For now, stakes will be kept small. Very small.
Has anybody else experience of the service? Do please use the 'Comments' box if so. Always good to hear from others and get a debate going.
Yesterday's Betting
Even The Odds: Staked 12pts, -4.105pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 3pts, +0.878pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Wednesday, 6 January 2016
Update
Got to rush out, so only the figures today. A profitable day yesterday, thanks to the overnight US Sports bets...
Even The Odds: Staked 6pts, +0.302pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 3pts, +0.861pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 3pts, +1.423pts.
Ciao for now.
Even The Odds: Staked 6pts, +0.302pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 3pts, +0.861pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 3pts, +1.423pts.
Ciao for now.
Tuesday, 5 January 2016
Candidates with experience need not apply...
Hello Chaps.
Thought for the day...in what business other than football, can someone be appointed to do a massively important job with no prior experience, and be paid millions of pounds per year to do that job?
I reckon Real Madrid looked at Barcelona, saw how a few years ago they promoted their ex-player and B team coach into the No.1 position, and then watched on with envy as he led their chief rivals to unprecedented success. I guess we'll find out if Zidane can do a Guardiola. In the meantime, I'm working on my job application for the Arsenal manager's role for when Arsene Wenger calls it a day. After all, I did coach Alderley United U10s for a season or two which comparatively speaking, makes me about as qualified as Zidane is for the Madrid job!
Monday's Betting
Just a quick summary tonight. Tomorrow will be even quicker as I've the joys of a Cricket Club Committee meeting to attend. At least it's down the pub!
I think I mentioned yesterday how December had been a fine month for PCG (NBA) and a poor one for PCG (NHL). So far this month, roles have seemingly been reversed. Two more losers in the overnight basketball means that sport is now 0/6 for 2016, whilst two excellent winners in the ice hockey (Ottawa - 2.71 and Arizona - 2.31) pushed that sport to an ROI of 20.4% since the turn of the year.
As far as the Gee Gees were concerned, only Even The Odds offered any advice, and good advice it was too. Three winners from six bets (Benenden - Musselburgh - 4.7, Cloonacoll - Ludlow - 3.25, and Ziggy's Star - Wolverhampton - 4.7) ensured a decent profit and hopefully signified the start of a strong run of form. Let's see.
Even The Odds: Staked 8pts, +4.152pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 2pts, -2pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 2pts, +3.02pts.
Thought for the day...in what business other than football, can someone be appointed to do a massively important job with no prior experience, and be paid millions of pounds per year to do that job?
I reckon Real Madrid looked at Barcelona, saw how a few years ago they promoted their ex-player and B team coach into the No.1 position, and then watched on with envy as he led their chief rivals to unprecedented success. I guess we'll find out if Zidane can do a Guardiola. In the meantime, I'm working on my job application for the Arsenal manager's role for when Arsene Wenger calls it a day. After all, I did coach Alderley United U10s for a season or two which comparatively speaking, makes me about as qualified as Zidane is for the Madrid job!
Monday's Betting
Just a quick summary tonight. Tomorrow will be even quicker as I've the joys of a Cricket Club Committee meeting to attend. At least it's down the pub!
I think I mentioned yesterday how December had been a fine month for PCG (NBA) and a poor one for PCG (NHL). So far this month, roles have seemingly been reversed. Two more losers in the overnight basketball means that sport is now 0/6 for 2016, whilst two excellent winners in the ice hockey (Ottawa - 2.71 and Arizona - 2.31) pushed that sport to an ROI of 20.4% since the turn of the year.
As far as the Gee Gees were concerned, only Even The Odds offered any advice, and good advice it was too. Three winners from six bets (Benenden - Musselburgh - 4.7, Cloonacoll - Ludlow - 3.25, and Ziggy's Star - Wolverhampton - 4.7) ensured a decent profit and hopefully signified the start of a strong run of form. Let's see.
Even The Odds: Staked 8pts, +4.152pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 2pts, -2pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 2pts, +3.02pts.
Monday, 4 January 2016
Sod's Law!
A bit later than I intended as I'd noticed today just how disgustingly grimy, sticky and unhygienic my laptop keyboard had become. Seriously, I bet there were organisms living down there between the keys that no scientist on God's green planet would be able to identify. So I took a wet wipe to it, managed to open Geek's Toy about 100 times whilst I scrubbed away (I really couldn't be bothered logging off first), created a new play list on Spotify, and sent photos of a holiday cottage in Devon to goodness knows where, all in the act of cleaning. Still, at least I can see the letters on the keys now, so all's good.
So where were we?
I think I was going to write a post about the services I'm following, wasn't I?
Ok, here's a list:
Racing: Northern Monkey (Flat), The Value Bettor (Jumps), Even The Odds (all codes)*.
Sports: The Fink Tank (UK footie), Soyloco (South American footie), Procomputergambler (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF).
I guess the first thing to say is that there's a lot less racing input into the portfolio than there has been in previous years. There's one reason for that, and one reason alone...those bastard bookmakers who won't take a bet. Sure, I can get a tenner on at Corals if I really wanted to, and for the hell of it I opened an account with NetBet so there's somewhere I can place the doubles that Northern Monkey often gives out, but basically, I've been through a couple of sets of accounts and at this moment in time, have decided against opening another. Instead, I've concentrated on trying to make Betfair pay. Sure, it's never going to be as lucrative as using the bookies and taking advantage of the BOG concessions, but it's still possible to make a decent enough profit. It just takes a little effort and a slightly different mindset, which is something that I will definitely blog about in some detail soon.
The asterisk by Even The Odds signifies that this is essentially being used as a proper part of the portfolio for the first time this week. It's a service I dabbled with last year, but in the main just watched and made some observations that I'm hoping will hold me in good stead. Undoubtedly it's inclusion is a risk for reasons I'll go into in my next proper post, but it also holds a great deal of promise too. I'll explain all next time, like I say, but in the meantime suffice to say it's the wild card in the pack.
Of the others, I'm sure they're all familiar to you if you read this blog in the past. I'm long term now with Northern Monkey, The Value Bettor, and Soyloco. As for Procomputergambler, or PCG for short, I use the Raw Numbers to identify my bets and don't follow the official picks.
I think the best thing to do is to devote the next few posts to each of these services, give some thoughts and background info on each and go from there. Tonight I just wanted to set out the portfolio as it stands. There's the slight possibility of another service to stick in there too, but we'll have to see on that one. I don't mean to be mysterious, but I need to talk to the tipster involved and see what he has to say first.
One final point. I know that folk who follow the same tipsters are likely to compare their performance with mine. Just be careful and don't forget that I'm using Betfair for all bets on the nags. If I can't get a price I want, I don't back the tip, so on occasion I'll miss bets, both winners and losers. The same happens with the sports betting too. One thing I've learnt is that backing at prices much shorter than those advised doesn't do the bottom line P&L any good in the long term. If you find your figures are significantly better or worse than mine (in the short term), this will be why.
Weekend's Betting
And so for the first summary of the year. And I've got to say, there was no escaping Sod's Law. After a few months of decent profit, I start blogging again and the first weekend goes t*ts up! Well, perhaps not that bad, but it's not been a great start.
Northern Monkey managed to get his 2016 off to a decent start with a winner on Friday (The Lock Master - Southwell - 3.2/1) but subsequently gave the profit back over the weekend. The Lock Master's win was quite incredible, and is worth looking up on the ATR website to take a peek. It was seriously outpaced for the first three quarters of the race, became so detached it traded at 37/1 on Betfair, before storming up the straight to win easing down. If it's ever tipped again, I might just stick in a cheeky in-running order at a silly price and see what happens.
Nothing from The Value Bettor as he takes a few days off to recharge the batteries, which just left Even The Odds as the other racing service in action. Frankly, I'd preferred it if they'd taken a few days off too, and if it hadn't been for one good winner (Singlefarmpayment - Chelmsford - 7/1) on Friday, the first few days of the New Year would have been ones to forget!
It was typical that having made a profit of over 10 points through December (which amounts to an ROC of 20%), PCG (NBA) got off to a horrid start to January with five losing bets from five since Friday, and the College Football bets tried vainly to keep pace with three losing bets from three! The NFL picks continue in excellent form however, going 4-2 yesterday. It's been a superb NFL Regular season for the NFL Raw Numbers. Fingers crossed that form continues through the Play Off season.
Finally it was a solid start for The Fink Tank which hit 4 winners using the Asian Handicap lines.
Even The Odds: Staked 14pts, -6.264pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -0.471pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 5pts, -5pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 6pts, +1.754pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 7pts, -1.179pts.
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.
I can't be doing with Soyloco's bets in the Sao Paulo Youth Cup. I don't have access to a book that provides the relevant markets, never mind manage to get the odds on these bets before they crash big time. I think you need a 188Bet account. I have one, but play at more than £5/point, so it's a no go for me. Roll on the proper leagues!
I'm pretty busy over the next couple of nights so basic results updates only, and then all things being equal, a meatier post on Thursday.
Until then...
So where were we?
I think I was going to write a post about the services I'm following, wasn't I?
Ok, here's a list:
Racing: Northern Monkey (Flat), The Value Bettor (Jumps), Even The Odds (all codes)*.
Sports: The Fink Tank (UK footie), Soyloco (South American footie), Procomputergambler (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF).
I guess the first thing to say is that there's a lot less racing input into the portfolio than there has been in previous years. There's one reason for that, and one reason alone...those bastard bookmakers who won't take a bet. Sure, I can get a tenner on at Corals if I really wanted to, and for the hell of it I opened an account with NetBet so there's somewhere I can place the doubles that Northern Monkey often gives out, but basically, I've been through a couple of sets of accounts and at this moment in time, have decided against opening another. Instead, I've concentrated on trying to make Betfair pay. Sure, it's never going to be as lucrative as using the bookies and taking advantage of the BOG concessions, but it's still possible to make a decent enough profit. It just takes a little effort and a slightly different mindset, which is something that I will definitely blog about in some detail soon.
The asterisk by Even The Odds signifies that this is essentially being used as a proper part of the portfolio for the first time this week. It's a service I dabbled with last year, but in the main just watched and made some observations that I'm hoping will hold me in good stead. Undoubtedly it's inclusion is a risk for reasons I'll go into in my next proper post, but it also holds a great deal of promise too. I'll explain all next time, like I say, but in the meantime suffice to say it's the wild card in the pack.
Of the others, I'm sure they're all familiar to you if you read this blog in the past. I'm long term now with Northern Monkey, The Value Bettor, and Soyloco. As for Procomputergambler, or PCG for short, I use the Raw Numbers to identify my bets and don't follow the official picks.
I think the best thing to do is to devote the next few posts to each of these services, give some thoughts and background info on each and go from there. Tonight I just wanted to set out the portfolio as it stands. There's the slight possibility of another service to stick in there too, but we'll have to see on that one. I don't mean to be mysterious, but I need to talk to the tipster involved and see what he has to say first.
One final point. I know that folk who follow the same tipsters are likely to compare their performance with mine. Just be careful and don't forget that I'm using Betfair for all bets on the nags. If I can't get a price I want, I don't back the tip, so on occasion I'll miss bets, both winners and losers. The same happens with the sports betting too. One thing I've learnt is that backing at prices much shorter than those advised doesn't do the bottom line P&L any good in the long term. If you find your figures are significantly better or worse than mine (in the short term), this will be why.
Weekend's Betting
And so for the first summary of the year. And I've got to say, there was no escaping Sod's Law. After a few months of decent profit, I start blogging again and the first weekend goes t*ts up! Well, perhaps not that bad, but it's not been a great start.
Northern Monkey managed to get his 2016 off to a decent start with a winner on Friday (The Lock Master - Southwell - 3.2/1) but subsequently gave the profit back over the weekend. The Lock Master's win was quite incredible, and is worth looking up on the ATR website to take a peek. It was seriously outpaced for the first three quarters of the race, became so detached it traded at 37/1 on Betfair, before storming up the straight to win easing down. If it's ever tipped again, I might just stick in a cheeky in-running order at a silly price and see what happens.
Nothing from The Value Bettor as he takes a few days off to recharge the batteries, which just left Even The Odds as the other racing service in action. Frankly, I'd preferred it if they'd taken a few days off too, and if it hadn't been for one good winner (Singlefarmpayment - Chelmsford - 7/1) on Friday, the first few days of the New Year would have been ones to forget!
It was typical that having made a profit of over 10 points through December (which amounts to an ROC of 20%), PCG (NBA) got off to a horrid start to January with five losing bets from five since Friday, and the College Football bets tried vainly to keep pace with three losing bets from three! The NFL picks continue in excellent form however, going 4-2 yesterday. It's been a superb NFL Regular season for the NFL Raw Numbers. Fingers crossed that form continues through the Play Off season.
Finally it was a solid start for The Fink Tank which hit 4 winners using the Asian Handicap lines.
Even The Odds: Staked 14pts, -6.264pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2.5pts, -0.471pts.
PCG (NBA): Staked 5pts, -5pts.
PCG (NCAAF): Staked 3pts, -3pts.
PCG (NFL): Staked 6pts, +1.754pts.
PCG (NHL): Staked 7pts, -1.179pts.
The Fink Tank: Staked 8pts, +1.358pts.
I can't be doing with Soyloco's bets in the Sao Paulo Youth Cup. I don't have access to a book that provides the relevant markets, never mind manage to get the odds on these bets before they crash big time. I think you need a 188Bet account. I have one, but play at more than £5/point, so it's a no go for me. Roll on the proper leagues!
I'm pretty busy over the next couple of nights so basic results updates only, and then all things being equal, a meatier post on Thursday.
Until then...
Friday, 1 January 2016
Well who'd have thunk?!?
It's been a while, eh?
Rising from the ashes, like a Phoenix from the flames...The Portfolio Investor is back! I'd love to say back with a bang; bigger, meaner and badder than before, but that would be glamorizing things a touch and in fact since the last time I blogged, the only discernible change in me is that I'm just a touch thicker around the old waistline. I suppose that's inevitable in the face of both middle age looming (44's still classed as fairly young, isn't it? Isn't it?) and my having stuffed myself silly over the past week or so. Still, if you can't be stuffed at Christmas, when can you? Millions of turkeys can't all be wrong.
Anyway, that's enough of that nonsense. This blog isn't all "Me me me" you know. It's about betting. Gambling. Making some cash...or trying to at least. It's about following tipsters and sharing the good times and bad. It's about venting frustrations and yelling successes from the virtual rooftops.
So here's the plan. Having dusted off the cobwebs in this place, I'll be posting here for a little while, and in the meantime I'll be looking for a new home in the form of a proper website. Not sure how long that will take. Weeks, perhaps? Months? Not sure yet, but before too long there'll be a brand spanking new, sparkling place to blog, and more to the point, somewhere where I'll be able to implement some other ideas I currently have brewing. I suppose I could have waited until that was all set up and ready to go before starting to blog again, but where would the fun in that be?
If I was a cynic, I'd wonder if this post appearing here today isn't rather like starting the old diary when you're a kid (and let's face it, there is a whole generation - to which I belong - who was inspired by Adrian Mole) with the very best of intentions, only for initial enthusiasm to fade rapidly and for it to become quite clear by the 10th January at the latest that daily updates weren't going to last.
Well, I ran this blog for three years or so which isn't too shabby, and like I say, I've plans. I won't be blogging every day, but I'll try at least to post results most days. Not at weekends though, which are far too precious to commit to doing anything other than eating and drinking in. And let's face it, you've got better things to be doing with your weekends than reading this blog!
So...that's it. Back Monday, when I'll go through which tipsters I'm following and how they've fared through the first couple of days of the New Year.
The Portfolio Investor - The Force Awakens...
Rising from the ashes, like a Phoenix from the flames...The Portfolio Investor is back! I'd love to say back with a bang; bigger, meaner and badder than before, but that would be glamorizing things a touch and in fact since the last time I blogged, the only discernible change in me is that I'm just a touch thicker around the old waistline. I suppose that's inevitable in the face of both middle age looming (44's still classed as fairly young, isn't it? Isn't it?) and my having stuffed myself silly over the past week or so. Still, if you can't be stuffed at Christmas, when can you? Millions of turkeys can't all be wrong.
Anyway, that's enough of that nonsense. This blog isn't all "Me me me" you know. It's about betting. Gambling. Making some cash...or trying to at least. It's about following tipsters and sharing the good times and bad. It's about venting frustrations and yelling successes from the virtual rooftops.
So here's the plan. Having dusted off the cobwebs in this place, I'll be posting here for a little while, and in the meantime I'll be looking for a new home in the form of a proper website. Not sure how long that will take. Weeks, perhaps? Months? Not sure yet, but before too long there'll be a brand spanking new, sparkling place to blog, and more to the point, somewhere where I'll be able to implement some other ideas I currently have brewing. I suppose I could have waited until that was all set up and ready to go before starting to blog again, but where would the fun in that be?
If I was a cynic, I'd wonder if this post appearing here today isn't rather like starting the old diary when you're a kid (and let's face it, there is a whole generation - to which I belong - who was inspired by Adrian Mole) with the very best of intentions, only for initial enthusiasm to fade rapidly and for it to become quite clear by the 10th January at the latest that daily updates weren't going to last.
Well, I ran this blog for three years or so which isn't too shabby, and like I say, I've plans. I won't be blogging every day, but I'll try at least to post results most days. Not at weekends though, which are far too precious to commit to doing anything other than eating and drinking in. And let's face it, you've got better things to be doing with your weekends than reading this blog!
So...that's it. Back Monday, when I'll go through which tipsters I'm following and how they've fared through the first couple of days of the New Year.
The Portfolio Investor - The Force Awakens...
Wednesday, 14 August 2013
The Portfolio Investor has moved!
Following a permanent transfer for an undisclosed fee (I wish), The Portfolio Investor has transferred to GallopsLive.com.
Please go to www.gallopslive.com, click on 'Community' on the left hand side of the page, and then on the blue graph icon. That will take you to the list of my most recent blog posts.
Of course, you can then always "Favourite" my page, or sign up to GallopsLive (for free) and "Follow" me.
Go on. You know it makes sense. He who dares, wins.
See you the other side... :)
PS. This time next year, we'll be millionaires.
Please go to www.gallopslive.com, click on 'Community' on the left hand side of the page, and then on the blue graph icon. That will take you to the list of my most recent blog posts.
Of course, you can then always "Favourite" my page, or sign up to GallopsLive (for free) and "Follow" me.
Go on. You know it makes sense. He who dares, wins.
See you the other side... :)
PS. This time next year, we'll be millionaires.
Friday, 9 August 2013
Friday 9th August. The Portfolio Investor has moved. Please click on link below:
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-the-problem-of-pre-race-drifts"/
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-the-problem-of-pre-race-drifts"/
Wednesday, 7 August 2013
Wednesday 7th August
The Portfolio Investor has moved. Please click link below...
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385pinnacle-showing-how-it-should-be-done"/
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385pinnacle-showing-how-it-should-be-done"/
Sunday, 4 August 2013
Sunday 4th August - The Portfolio Investor has moved. Please click link...
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-in-no-fit-state"/
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-in-no-fit-state"/
Friday, 2 August 2013
The Portfolio Investor blog has moved.
Please follow link
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-crushed-dreams-and-the-portfolio-for-201314"/
Please follow link
http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-crushed-dreams-and-the-portfolio-for-201314"/
Thursday, 1 August 2013
Good to be back, but don't settle in.
Well, well, well. When I signed off back in May, I do believe I asked for a scorching summer, more in hope than expectation, obviously. And what do you know!?! The back lawn looks like a scene from Lawrence Of Arabia, I'm sick to death of burnt meat and BBQ lighter fuel that doesn't light, and Christ it's been hot in the un-air conditioned office at work! Rain is what we need. Rain and more rain I tell you. And then snow.
Enough of all that. What's been happening with the gambling?
Here are the figures for June and July...
June: Horse Racing ROI 16.6%, Sports Betting ROI -6.95%, Total ROI -0.78%.
July: Horse Racing ROI 7.37%, Sports Betting ROI 6.91%, Total ROI 7.09%.
I'm not going to go into great detail just now but I've simply got to mention the performance of On The Nose which has had quite the outstanding July. 46 points profit at an ROI of 163% (and an ROC of 46%) is stupendously good tipping! Winners have come in at 33/1, 18/1, and the month was rounded off beautifully yesterday in the Galway Plate. Not only was the winner found (Carlingford Lough - 6.2/1 on Betfair), but a second selection, given each way, finished second (Quantitiveeasing - 33/1)! I'm not being greedy - well, perhaps just a little bit - but it's a shame the positions weren't reversed. I got 63/1 on the win part of the the Quantitativeeasing bet on Betfair.
In all honesty, June didn't really constitute a "proper" month. I was away on holiday for a fortnight and to be completely honest with you I placed bets when I fancied it, which whilst down by the sea in nice weather, wasn't that often. As for July, I'm delighted with the final figures as after the first two weeks, I'd tumbled to the bottom of a rather severe drawdown from where the break even level looked ridiculously far away. and yet, just two weeks later, I can announce a solid enough, if not spectacular profit.
Right. What next for the TPI blog? Well, I've an announcement to make. This will be the last TPI blog post on Blogger. Yep, we're moving. We're trading a first buyer's one-bedroom flat to a spacious 4-bed detached in the nice side of town...GallopsLive.com.
I'll stick up a link to the new place so it's easy to find, but it really is worth joining GallopsLive anyway. Certainly if you're interested in horse racing as there's some really good writing on there. So, a professional and polished site, chocablock with good, insightful writing, and then there's me! They must be mad.
Please do make the effort though. The portfolio has changed somewhat since I was last here, and it's now all geared up for the new football season. I'll be going through the changes and analysing each service in turn, and this year I'm going to keep a running score of the portfolio performance all the way through to next summer. There's some interesting services in there now, so from tomorrow, go take a read.
Here's the link http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-where-the-feck-am-i/
See you on the other side.
Enough of all that. What's been happening with the gambling?
Here are the figures for June and July...
June: Horse Racing ROI 16.6%, Sports Betting ROI -6.95%, Total ROI -0.78%.
July: Horse Racing ROI 7.37%, Sports Betting ROI 6.91%, Total ROI 7.09%.
I'm not going to go into great detail just now but I've simply got to mention the performance of On The Nose which has had quite the outstanding July. 46 points profit at an ROI of 163% (and an ROC of 46%) is stupendously good tipping! Winners have come in at 33/1, 18/1, and the month was rounded off beautifully yesterday in the Galway Plate. Not only was the winner found (Carlingford Lough - 6.2/1 on Betfair), but a second selection, given each way, finished second (Quantitiveeasing - 33/1)! I'm not being greedy - well, perhaps just a little bit - but it's a shame the positions weren't reversed. I got 63/1 on the win part of the the Quantitativeeasing bet on Betfair.
In all honesty, June didn't really constitute a "proper" month. I was away on holiday for a fortnight and to be completely honest with you I placed bets when I fancied it, which whilst down by the sea in nice weather, wasn't that often. As for July, I'm delighted with the final figures as after the first two weeks, I'd tumbled to the bottom of a rather severe drawdown from where the break even level looked ridiculously far away. and yet, just two weeks later, I can announce a solid enough, if not spectacular profit.
Right. What next for the TPI blog? Well, I've an announcement to make. This will be the last TPI blog post on Blogger. Yep, we're moving. We're trading a first buyer's one-bedroom flat to a spacious 4-bed detached in the nice side of town...GallopsLive.com.
I'll stick up a link to the new place so it's easy to find, but it really is worth joining GallopsLive anyway. Certainly if you're interested in horse racing as there's some really good writing on there. So, a professional and polished site, chocablock with good, insightful writing, and then there's me! They must be mad.
Please do make the effort though. The portfolio has changed somewhat since I was last here, and it's now all geared up for the new football season. I'll be going through the changes and analysing each service in turn, and this year I'm going to keep a running score of the portfolio performance all the way through to next summer. There's some interesting services in there now, so from tomorrow, go take a read.
Here's the link http://www.gallopslive.com/#!/blog/1385-where-the-feck-am-i/
See you on the other side.
Thursday, 18 April 2013
Summer Holidays!
Firstly, my apologies for the recent lack of posts. I intend to use this post to explain why that has been the case and to outline my thoughts on the blog moving forward.
I have decided to draw a line under the blog, but only for the summer. I'll be back blogging when the non-league football season of 2013/14 starts in August. To be honest, I was going to bring about a temporary halt in a couple of weeks or so anyway, but with certain things happening at work that very much require my attention, it is common sense to stop now. I have previously mentioned on the blog that this could be a big year, bringing about significant changes. It would appear that those things are beginning to happen now and in the short term, the blog has to become less of a priority.
Thinking about things, this will be a pattern that I will try and follow every year. The longer summer evenings seem to be much fuller than those in the dark depths of winter. I know I took a bit of a break from blogging a couple of summers ago, just so that I could play cricket, tennis and spend time with the kids during their holidays.
Bearing in mind that I've talked recently about a rationalisation of the portfolio, necessitated by the increasing difficulties I'm experiencing in getting my bets on horse racing now, it may be a more slimline portfolio that I will be blogging about come the autumn. Like I said the other day, I see (and am working towards) a future whereby each of the services I currently follow has a part to play. The result of a recent change in personal circumstances is an intermediate period during which I simply can't back horses as I would choose to, nor place bets from as many services as I would like. I hope that those running the services affected will not think me flaky and will happily reopen the doors to their expertise when the time is right. Believe me, when that time arrives, I'll be needing to utilise and exploit their skills, so fingers crossed I don't piss anyone off!
My regret is that the stability I talked so wistfully about just the other day now seems as far away as ever. I guess I always knew that this next year or so was always going to make reaching the desired level of stability a tough task, and so it has proved. It will come though, I'm sure.
When the blog does start up again, after a long and gloriously hot summer that awaits (pfft - fat chance!), I do want to make it a little more professional. I will perhaps change the modus operandi to one that involves posting just two or three times each week. That way, readers will know exactly when they will be able to read about the latest performance figures for each service, and when we can explore a relevant betting topic in some depth. Let's see what happens, but what I would appreciate is some feedback in terms of what you would like to see. That could be topics to discuss, the way performance figures are recorded, anything at all. Stick it in the Comments section where I'll be sure to see it.
Finally, if anyone is interested, the weekend gone was essentially break even, the month to date in deficit but not acutely so, and the year to date doing alright.
Right, that's it until mid-August. Have a great summer, and may it be a scorcher!
I have decided to draw a line under the blog, but only for the summer. I'll be back blogging when the non-league football season of 2013/14 starts in August. To be honest, I was going to bring about a temporary halt in a couple of weeks or so anyway, but with certain things happening at work that very much require my attention, it is common sense to stop now. I have previously mentioned on the blog that this could be a big year, bringing about significant changes. It would appear that those things are beginning to happen now and in the short term, the blog has to become less of a priority.
Thinking about things, this will be a pattern that I will try and follow every year. The longer summer evenings seem to be much fuller than those in the dark depths of winter. I know I took a bit of a break from blogging a couple of summers ago, just so that I could play cricket, tennis and spend time with the kids during their holidays.
Bearing in mind that I've talked recently about a rationalisation of the portfolio, necessitated by the increasing difficulties I'm experiencing in getting my bets on horse racing now, it may be a more slimline portfolio that I will be blogging about come the autumn. Like I said the other day, I see (and am working towards) a future whereby each of the services I currently follow has a part to play. The result of a recent change in personal circumstances is an intermediate period during which I simply can't back horses as I would choose to, nor place bets from as many services as I would like. I hope that those running the services affected will not think me flaky and will happily reopen the doors to their expertise when the time is right. Believe me, when that time arrives, I'll be needing to utilise and exploit their skills, so fingers crossed I don't piss anyone off!
My regret is that the stability I talked so wistfully about just the other day now seems as far away as ever. I guess I always knew that this next year or so was always going to make reaching the desired level of stability a tough task, and so it has proved. It will come though, I'm sure.
When the blog does start up again, after a long and gloriously hot summer that awaits (pfft - fat chance!), I do want to make it a little more professional. I will perhaps change the modus operandi to one that involves posting just two or three times each week. That way, readers will know exactly when they will be able to read about the latest performance figures for each service, and when we can explore a relevant betting topic in some depth. Let's see what happens, but what I would appreciate is some feedback in terms of what you would like to see. That could be topics to discuss, the way performance figures are recorded, anything at all. Stick it in the Comments section where I'll be sure to see it.
Finally, if anyone is interested, the weekend gone was essentially break even, the month to date in deficit but not acutely so, and the year to date doing alright.
Right, that's it until mid-August. Have a great summer, and may it be a scorcher!
Tuesday, 16 April 2013
Lazy git!
That is what I am.
You see the problem with weekends is that I usually have a kids' football team to manage in the morning, a trip to Stockport County or to a mate's house to watch the racing in the afternoon (and from this week coming a cricket match to ache and groan through), then a curry and a film with the kids in the evening. Then we're into Sunday when it's athletics club for the little blighters in the morning, perhaps a good footie match in the afternoon on the telly or if not a walk out to the woods or somewhere before home for a good Sunday dinner. After that lot, it's all I can do to collapse in front of Real Madrid or Barcelona in the evening. Now, just when are you supposed to blog amongst that lot, eh?
"Ah, yes", I hear you say. "But what about yesterday. A Monday?"
True, it was a Monday, but before you get all smart with me I was off yesterday looking after the kids who don't go back to school until today. My wife though; she did go back to work yesterday so someone had to take the day off. Either that or lock the little bastards in the shed, which even to me sounds a little harsh.
So there you go. Those are my excuses.
I will write a catch up post very soon but not tonight. Arsenal vs Everton you know.
Speak soon. Promise.
You see the problem with weekends is that I usually have a kids' football team to manage in the morning, a trip to Stockport County or to a mate's house to watch the racing in the afternoon (and from this week coming a cricket match to ache and groan through), then a curry and a film with the kids in the evening. Then we're into Sunday when it's athletics club for the little blighters in the morning, perhaps a good footie match in the afternoon on the telly or if not a walk out to the woods or somewhere before home for a good Sunday dinner. After that lot, it's all I can do to collapse in front of Real Madrid or Barcelona in the evening. Now, just when are you supposed to blog amongst that lot, eh?
"Ah, yes", I hear you say. "But what about yesterday. A Monday?"
True, it was a Monday, but before you get all smart with me I was off yesterday looking after the kids who don't go back to school until today. My wife though; she did go back to work yesterday so someone had to take the day off. Either that or lock the little bastards in the shed, which even to me sounds a little harsh.
So there you go. Those are my excuses.
I will write a catch up post very soon but not tonight. Arsenal vs Everton you know.
Speak soon. Promise.
Friday, 12 April 2013
Shifting Sands
How hard is it to gamble successfully? There are the psychological challenges we face during losing runs, treating the twin imposters of victory and defeat the same in some vain attempt to maintain some sort of mental equilibrium. There is the reluctance of most if not all of the big name, high street bookmakers to lay much of a bet once they have seen that you really do, despite their constant pleas for attention, have absolutely zero interest in their rigged casino games or online version of the FOBTs. Then there is the requirement to give up a sizeable enough chunk of what is already a busy and full life that all those that don't have the personal wealth of a Roman Abramovich have to deal with, especially if coping with the demands placed on us by young children, teenagers, a full time career, etc., etc.
I think I've learnt how to deal with these things as well as it is possible to. I guess we all have, or are trying to, or I wouldn't be writing this blog and you wouldn't be reading it. There is one thing though that I am really struggling with. The way I get myself set up nicely, into a groove, and then something happens that shifts the sand beneath my gambling feet and suddenly, and without wanting to, I have to contemplate change.
A lack of stability is the one thing I feel I have failed at in my gambling project. It is something I crave, and yet find it an elusive destination to reach. The path to stability feels as if it is lined by Kenneth Williams-voiced Will'o'the Wisps, each of them luring me away from the trail and into the tangled forest of gloom where resides an evil old television called Edna (I might needlessly be harking back a little to childhood tv programmes at this point, but you get where I'm coming from).
It's happening again. This week the bookmakers are making things tricky. I know it's hard to believe, but over the last 14 months or so, BetFred has become an integral part of my betting on horse racing. For 14 months, they have not imposed any restrictions. I put it down to deliberately using the account solely for betting on horses, and keeping average stakes low by spreading bets around. This week, they have restricted my stakes to the extent where I'm struggling to get a tenner on. And to prove the old adage that bad things happen in threes, Coral bookmakers, who have for a long time referred all my bets to traders before saying they're fine, are now referring my bets to traders who now say they are not fine, and Paddy Power have seemingly taken their lead from Coral.
Here is a list of bookmakers offering BOG, with a one or two word description of my ability or otherwise to get a bet on with them...
1. Bet365 - no chance.
2. BetFred - severe restrictions.
3. BetVictor - no chance.
4. BetInternet - reasonable restrictions.
5. CorbettSports - reasonable restrictions.
6. Coral - severe restrictions.
7. Paddy Power - severe restrictions.
8. Ladbrokes - no chance.
9. William Hill - no restrictions (yipee!)
10. Totesport - no restrictions (but limited choice of BOG races each day).
I'll not even mention the other, non-BOG bookies. There's no point - I can't get more than £2 down with any of them.
You see my problem. I've learnt enough over the last couple of years to stay under the radar of the traders for as long as possible, but events this week make me think I'm coming to the end of the line with the accounts I currently have. I would use pseudo accounts, but from Monday to Friday I have no means of hiding my IP address so I can't help feeling that opening up these accounts now would not be the wisest move. I'd rather save them for when I am in a position to be able to follow the process through properly.
There are other issues in the background too. I've mentioned on here before that my personal circumstances are going to be changing fairly drastically at some point. I have a plan for when this happens, and that plan includes working with each and every one of the services I currently have in my portfolio. What I am lacking though, is the financial stability I need to make the same plan work in the interim period, and a lack of viable bookmaker accounts. So this period of time requires a different plan, and is one I'm working on. It will require some significant changes to the way I do things. Not changes that will be made overnight, but changes nevertheless. Which is a real pain.
Thursday 11th April
One of those days, with five services in action, all of which posted a loss.
No joy for Northern Monkey (0/1), On The Nose (0/2), and Sportyy (0/1). Winning Racing Tips had one bet finish in the frame but at 7/2 provided a deficit, and an each way treble in which the first two horse won and the last finished unplaced!
The only winner of the day came in the darts, with On The Oche picking one right from three bets (Simon Whitlock (DNB) vs Robert Thornton at 2.25).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.8pts, -0.78pts.
On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, -0.375pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
I'll try to post some basic results posts over the weekend.
Have a good one.
I think I've learnt how to deal with these things as well as it is possible to. I guess we all have, or are trying to, or I wouldn't be writing this blog and you wouldn't be reading it. There is one thing though that I am really struggling with. The way I get myself set up nicely, into a groove, and then something happens that shifts the sand beneath my gambling feet and suddenly, and without wanting to, I have to contemplate change.
A lack of stability is the one thing I feel I have failed at in my gambling project. It is something I crave, and yet find it an elusive destination to reach. The path to stability feels as if it is lined by Kenneth Williams-voiced Will'o'the Wisps, each of them luring me away from the trail and into the tangled forest of gloom where resides an evil old television called Edna (I might needlessly be harking back a little to childhood tv programmes at this point, but you get where I'm coming from).
It's happening again. This week the bookmakers are making things tricky. I know it's hard to believe, but over the last 14 months or so, BetFred has become an integral part of my betting on horse racing. For 14 months, they have not imposed any restrictions. I put it down to deliberately using the account solely for betting on horses, and keeping average stakes low by spreading bets around. This week, they have restricted my stakes to the extent where I'm struggling to get a tenner on. And to prove the old adage that bad things happen in threes, Coral bookmakers, who have for a long time referred all my bets to traders before saying they're fine, are now referring my bets to traders who now say they are not fine, and Paddy Power have seemingly taken their lead from Coral.
Here is a list of bookmakers offering BOG, with a one or two word description of my ability or otherwise to get a bet on with them...
1. Bet365 - no chance.
2. BetFred - severe restrictions.
3. BetVictor - no chance.
4. BetInternet - reasonable restrictions.
5. CorbettSports - reasonable restrictions.
6. Coral - severe restrictions.
7. Paddy Power - severe restrictions.
8. Ladbrokes - no chance.
9. William Hill - no restrictions (yipee!)
10. Totesport - no restrictions (but limited choice of BOG races each day).
I'll not even mention the other, non-BOG bookies. There's no point - I can't get more than £2 down with any of them.
You see my problem. I've learnt enough over the last couple of years to stay under the radar of the traders for as long as possible, but events this week make me think I'm coming to the end of the line with the accounts I currently have. I would use pseudo accounts, but from Monday to Friday I have no means of hiding my IP address so I can't help feeling that opening up these accounts now would not be the wisest move. I'd rather save them for when I am in a position to be able to follow the process through properly.
There are other issues in the background too. I've mentioned on here before that my personal circumstances are going to be changing fairly drastically at some point. I have a plan for when this happens, and that plan includes working with each and every one of the services I currently have in my portfolio. What I am lacking though, is the financial stability I need to make the same plan work in the interim period, and a lack of viable bookmaker accounts. So this period of time requires a different plan, and is one I'm working on. It will require some significant changes to the way I do things. Not changes that will be made overnight, but changes nevertheless. Which is a real pain.
Thursday 11th April
One of those days, with five services in action, all of which posted a loss.
No joy for Northern Monkey (0/1), On The Nose (0/2), and Sportyy (0/1). Winning Racing Tips had one bet finish in the frame but at 7/2 provided a deficit, and an each way treble in which the first two horse won and the last finished unplaced!
The only winner of the day came in the darts, with On The Oche picking one right from three bets (Simon Whitlock (DNB) vs Robert Thornton at 2.25).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 1.8pts, -0.78pts.
On The Oche: Staked 1.5pts, -0.375pts.
Sportyy: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
I'll try to post some basic results posts over the weekend.
Have a good one.
Thursday, 11 April 2013
Work smart.
Before I start wittering on again, may I just say that if anyone disagrees with what I write, then please do use the Comments box to say so. This has always been a place for constructive debate, so as long as the comment amounts to more than, "You're a dick cos you support Arsenal", then I'll always explore things further in the main blog. I mean, I may be a dick, but that is entirely incidental to who I support. I could support United and I'd be an even bigger dick, couldn't I?
Anyway, following on from yesterday's musings on the subject of odds recording and all that...
I strongly believe that as I said yesterday, ultimately the way to realise the maximum potential of our results is down to us and what we do. For example, I know that frequently, the Football Elite bets drift in price the closer it gets to kick off. Therefore it makes sense to wait until as late as possible before striking these bets. It doesn't happen all the time, but frequently enough to make a difference. Certainly I don't see any need for a mad rush to get the bets on at 6.00 on the Friday evening.
Contrast this to The Football Analyst, many of whose bets do seem to contract in price as time goes on. With TFA I always try to get the bets placed as soon as I can. It's not always possible for me to do this on a Thursday evening, but still, as soon as I get the chance to strike the bets, I do, knowing that often, the price will continue to contract. Summer Of Football is different again. Generally speaking I can get very close to the suggested odds by placing the bets quickly but occasionally the price does contract rapidly, usually if the team we're supporting is playing in a league that attracts less market liquidity. However, like Football Elite, the odds do often bounce back out as the market matures, so if I do miss a price by some margin, I will wait to see what odds I might get later. It's not a foolproof system, but I reckon it works frequently enough to add a little to my bottom line figures. I am just adopting this strategy with Skeeve's Asian Handicap bets and will run with it from now until the end of the season to see what happens.
It is a completely different scenario when it comes to horse racing. I have tried, with the exception of 4PA, to mould the racing side of my portfolio into a shape which doesn't open itself up to being vulnerable to rapidly shrinking odds. In other, plainer words, I try and follow services whose selections don't cause an immediate collapse in prices. I allow odds availability on selections to dictate to me which services I follow. The prices on the Northern Monkey and On The Nose tips do tend to shorten, but not very often is it that they disappear in a blink as they do with some other services. I believe, from what I read in forums and from what people tell me who are or have been subscribers, that this can often be an issue with Equine Investments and Systematic Betting. Both are fantastically successful services that can boast superb long term results, but a big part of our edge that they provide would be eroded if unable to act quickly enough when the bets are sent through. There's no way my own personal circumstances would allow me to jump on their bets as soon as they hit my inbox, and so these services are not suitable for my needs. I think we as investors perhaps understate the importance of this factor at times, instead getting carried away, as it is so easy to be, by such an attractive performance record that these services can boast via the various proofing services and their own web pages.
To conclude, I believe that as investors in other services, we have to rely on two fundamental priniciples.
- 1. We should always analyse the way a service works and what happens to the prices on the bets they give between release and off time, so that we can formulate a plan/strategy as to how we can maximise returns from that service. We have to accept that this plan will differ from service to service; and
- 2. We need to look beyond the simple ROI figures and other means of service assessment, using them as a pointer/guide as to which services to consider adding to our portfolios and steer away from using them as the sole deciding factor. Returns may appear spectacular, but that's not much use if your own circumstances prevent you from exploiting the service's potential.
Wednesday 10th April
A quiet day, but a pleasantly profitable one, thanks (again) to Northern Monkey. Like the previous day, just the one bet (O Ma Lad - Catterick - 6/1), well supported on course into 7/2 before winning rather cosily. Fine stuff!
No luck for Sportyy (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.6pts.
Sportyy: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Anyway, following on from yesterday's musings on the subject of odds recording and all that...
I strongly believe that as I said yesterday, ultimately the way to realise the maximum potential of our results is down to us and what we do. For example, I know that frequently, the Football Elite bets drift in price the closer it gets to kick off. Therefore it makes sense to wait until as late as possible before striking these bets. It doesn't happen all the time, but frequently enough to make a difference. Certainly I don't see any need for a mad rush to get the bets on at 6.00 on the Friday evening.
Contrast this to The Football Analyst, many of whose bets do seem to contract in price as time goes on. With TFA I always try to get the bets placed as soon as I can. It's not always possible for me to do this on a Thursday evening, but still, as soon as I get the chance to strike the bets, I do, knowing that often, the price will continue to contract. Summer Of Football is different again. Generally speaking I can get very close to the suggested odds by placing the bets quickly but occasionally the price does contract rapidly, usually if the team we're supporting is playing in a league that attracts less market liquidity. However, like Football Elite, the odds do often bounce back out as the market matures, so if I do miss a price by some margin, I will wait to see what odds I might get later. It's not a foolproof system, but I reckon it works frequently enough to add a little to my bottom line figures. I am just adopting this strategy with Skeeve's Asian Handicap bets and will run with it from now until the end of the season to see what happens.
It is a completely different scenario when it comes to horse racing. I have tried, with the exception of 4PA, to mould the racing side of my portfolio into a shape which doesn't open itself up to being vulnerable to rapidly shrinking odds. In other, plainer words, I try and follow services whose selections don't cause an immediate collapse in prices. I allow odds availability on selections to dictate to me which services I follow. The prices on the Northern Monkey and On The Nose tips do tend to shorten, but not very often is it that they disappear in a blink as they do with some other services. I believe, from what I read in forums and from what people tell me who are or have been subscribers, that this can often be an issue with Equine Investments and Systematic Betting. Both are fantastically successful services that can boast superb long term results, but a big part of our edge that they provide would be eroded if unable to act quickly enough when the bets are sent through. There's no way my own personal circumstances would allow me to jump on their bets as soon as they hit my inbox, and so these services are not suitable for my needs. I think we as investors perhaps understate the importance of this factor at times, instead getting carried away, as it is so easy to be, by such an attractive performance record that these services can boast via the various proofing services and their own web pages.
To conclude, I believe that as investors in other services, we have to rely on two fundamental priniciples.
- 1. We should always analyse the way a service works and what happens to the prices on the bets they give between release and off time, so that we can formulate a plan/strategy as to how we can maximise returns from that service. We have to accept that this plan will differ from service to service; and
- 2. We need to look beyond the simple ROI figures and other means of service assessment, using them as a pointer/guide as to which services to consider adding to our portfolios and steer away from using them as the sole deciding factor. Returns may appear spectacular, but that's not much use if your own circumstances prevent you from exploiting the service's potential.
Wednesday 10th April
A quiet day, but a pleasantly profitable one, thanks (again) to Northern Monkey. Like the previous day, just the one bet (O Ma Lad - Catterick - 6/1), well supported on course into 7/2 before winning rather cosily. Fine stuff!
No luck for Sportyy (0/1).
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +3.6pts.
Sportyy: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Wednesday, 10 April 2013
Getting the right price.
I mentioned yesterday that there is an interesting thread in the Secret Betting Club in which the participants are debating the issue of how a tipping service should record 'official' results in a way that was fair to subscribers. I don't want to express an opinion on this blog just yet, as I don't want to be treading on the toes SBC's toes. It would be a bit like a rival newspaper passing off another's 'Exclusive' as their own. Of course that never happens, does it?
I may well address the subject under discussion on this blog at a later date, but for now I want to talk about my own approach to securing the best odds I can with the bets that I place and my own attitude towards any discrepancy there may be between the odds I secure and those recorded by the services I follow.
First of all, I think we, as service subscribers, need to draw a line in the sand to use as a marker as to what is and what isn't an acceptable level of odds movement occuring between the time of bet release and the time we are able to place the bets. If we are striking the bets as soon as the selections hit our inbox, but are consistently securing odds considerably below those officially recorded by the service itself, then something is very wrong. If this is happening, then the service wouldn't be one that I would want to follow, simple as that. To my mind, this issue should be treated in the same way as a service claiming a bet as a winner when in fact, to many subscribers, it wasn't (and that is not as stupid as it sounds; it can and does happen).
So having drawn that line, I have to say that I really don't get too hung up about officially recorded prices providing the service I'm following is playing it fair. I believe it is my responsibility to secure the best odds on the bets I place, not the responsibility of the tipster. Generally speaking, I find that if I have missed out badly on the odds of a particular bet, it is a result of something either I have or have not done, or is due to circumstances peculiar to myself and nothing to do with the tipster whatsoever. Allow me to use Skeeve as an example. Skeeve has a short list of 'official' bookmakers from which he will take the best odds after a set period of time after bet release as those at which he will record results. Now, of these bookmakers, I can only really use two - Bwin and William Hill. Even if William Hill have better odds available on one of Skeeve's doubles, I still choose to use Bwin. Why? Because I'm desparately trying to protect my William Hill account, it being the only BOG bookmaker that thus far has imposed no restrictions on my betting on horse racing. Perhaps mixing profitable non-league football bets with horse racing would play no part in any decision that a William Hill trader may make with regards the ongoing viability of my account, but the decision I have taken, either rightly or wrongly, is to take no chances with what is a valuable commodity to the overall portfolio. The key words here being, "decision I have taken". It is not Skeeve's fault that I have chosen to decline the offer of the very best odds on his tips and therefore, whenever there is a discrepancy between his officially recorded prices and the ones I choose to take, then I have to accept that is my responsibility and not Skeeve's. Of course there are times when the Bwin prices are the best on offer, so I hope it's swings and roundabouts when looking at the long term, but either way, the point stands.
Another example. On Friday, I found the Pinnacle website painfully slow, both in loading up and when trying to place bets. Now as it happens, I was experimenting a little with Skeeve's Asian Handicap bets so it didn't actually matter, but were I trying to place that bet with Pinnacle on Friday evening, I'd have really struggled. No doubt I'd have missed out on the higher odds that would have been available during the window that Skeeve allows before taking the best price from one of the Asian bookmakers. Again, this is no fault of Skeeve and blaming any tipster under such circumstances is ridiculous.
It's important too, to think ahead when it comes to how you're going to secure the best odds. As you know if you have read the blog over this past week or so, I'm rejoining Football Investor. Now I know full well that both Football Investor and The Football Analyst both release their bets for the weekend on a Thursday evening. With the number of bets from each service I anticipate placing, there's no way I'm going to be able to catch the highest odds on each team. But I was aware of this when I made the decision to go back to FI. To complain next year that I'm missing out on some prices would be a justification for Stewboss or Graeme to visit my house in the dead of night to chop my knadgers off!
Ultimately, the point I'm trying to make here is that what concerns me first and foremost is how much money I make via the services I follow. None of them take the piss with the way they record their results so I'm not at all concerned about any discrepancy between my results and theirs. If a problem arises, where I see that for some reason or other I'm missing out on a lot of potential profit, then I may need to analyse why it is, and whether the better thing to do is to persevere with that service, or knock it on the head.
More to say on this tomorrow.
Tuesday 9th April
Much better.
Northern Monkey kicked things off on the right footing with the one bet, a very nice winner (Polski Max - Pontefract - 4/1). If there is such a thing as a textbook tip, this was it. An early 4/1 secured before the horse was backed into 11/4 on course, a top jockey taking advantage of a favourable draw before giving the horse a peach of a ride, culminating in an easy five length win. Why can't it always be like this?
On to the evening's football, and it was a good night for Football Investor's Strike Zone which picked out three winners from three bets. GB bets had two winners from four for a small profit too, whilst Sporty found one from two.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +2.4pts.
Sportyy: Staked 2.5pts, +1.266pts.
Football Investor (Strike Zone): Staked 3pts, +4.15pts.
GB: Staked 4pts, +0.21pts.
I may well address the subject under discussion on this blog at a later date, but for now I want to talk about my own approach to securing the best odds I can with the bets that I place and my own attitude towards any discrepancy there may be between the odds I secure and those recorded by the services I follow.
First of all, I think we, as service subscribers, need to draw a line in the sand to use as a marker as to what is and what isn't an acceptable level of odds movement occuring between the time of bet release and the time we are able to place the bets. If we are striking the bets as soon as the selections hit our inbox, but are consistently securing odds considerably below those officially recorded by the service itself, then something is very wrong. If this is happening, then the service wouldn't be one that I would want to follow, simple as that. To my mind, this issue should be treated in the same way as a service claiming a bet as a winner when in fact, to many subscribers, it wasn't (and that is not as stupid as it sounds; it can and does happen).
So having drawn that line, I have to say that I really don't get too hung up about officially recorded prices providing the service I'm following is playing it fair. I believe it is my responsibility to secure the best odds on the bets I place, not the responsibility of the tipster. Generally speaking, I find that if I have missed out badly on the odds of a particular bet, it is a result of something either I have or have not done, or is due to circumstances peculiar to myself and nothing to do with the tipster whatsoever. Allow me to use Skeeve as an example. Skeeve has a short list of 'official' bookmakers from which he will take the best odds after a set period of time after bet release as those at which he will record results. Now, of these bookmakers, I can only really use two - Bwin and William Hill. Even if William Hill have better odds available on one of Skeeve's doubles, I still choose to use Bwin. Why? Because I'm desparately trying to protect my William Hill account, it being the only BOG bookmaker that thus far has imposed no restrictions on my betting on horse racing. Perhaps mixing profitable non-league football bets with horse racing would play no part in any decision that a William Hill trader may make with regards the ongoing viability of my account, but the decision I have taken, either rightly or wrongly, is to take no chances with what is a valuable commodity to the overall portfolio. The key words here being, "decision I have taken". It is not Skeeve's fault that I have chosen to decline the offer of the very best odds on his tips and therefore, whenever there is a discrepancy between his officially recorded prices and the ones I choose to take, then I have to accept that is my responsibility and not Skeeve's. Of course there are times when the Bwin prices are the best on offer, so I hope it's swings and roundabouts when looking at the long term, but either way, the point stands.
Another example. On Friday, I found the Pinnacle website painfully slow, both in loading up and when trying to place bets. Now as it happens, I was experimenting a little with Skeeve's Asian Handicap bets so it didn't actually matter, but were I trying to place that bet with Pinnacle on Friday evening, I'd have really struggled. No doubt I'd have missed out on the higher odds that would have been available during the window that Skeeve allows before taking the best price from one of the Asian bookmakers. Again, this is no fault of Skeeve and blaming any tipster under such circumstances is ridiculous.
It's important too, to think ahead when it comes to how you're going to secure the best odds. As you know if you have read the blog over this past week or so, I'm rejoining Football Investor. Now I know full well that both Football Investor and The Football Analyst both release their bets for the weekend on a Thursday evening. With the number of bets from each service I anticipate placing, there's no way I'm going to be able to catch the highest odds on each team. But I was aware of this when I made the decision to go back to FI. To complain next year that I'm missing out on some prices would be a justification for Stewboss or Graeme to visit my house in the dead of night to chop my knadgers off!
Ultimately, the point I'm trying to make here is that what concerns me first and foremost is how much money I make via the services I follow. None of them take the piss with the way they record their results so I'm not at all concerned about any discrepancy between my results and theirs. If a problem arises, where I see that for some reason or other I'm missing out on a lot of potential profit, then I may need to analyse why it is, and whether the better thing to do is to persevere with that service, or knock it on the head.
More to say on this tomorrow.
Tuesday 9th April
Much better.
Northern Monkey kicked things off on the right footing with the one bet, a very nice winner (Polski Max - Pontefract - 4/1). If there is such a thing as a textbook tip, this was it. An early 4/1 secured before the horse was backed into 11/4 on course, a top jockey taking advantage of a favourable draw before giving the horse a peach of a ride, culminating in an easy five length win. Why can't it always be like this?
On to the evening's football, and it was a good night for Football Investor's Strike Zone which picked out three winners from three bets. GB bets had two winners from four for a small profit too, whilst Sporty found one from two.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, +2.4pts.
Sportyy: Staked 2.5pts, +1.266pts.
Football Investor (Strike Zone): Staked 3pts, +4.15pts.
GB: Staked 4pts, +0.21pts.
Tuesday, 9 April 2013
Correlation, bookmakers and ROI
Stephen left a comment under yesterday's post that touched upon a part of the thought process I went through when considering the reintroduction of Football Investor to the portfolio. With plans to expand the selection of The Football Analyst systems utilised in Season 2013/14, would following Football Investor bets not lead to a fair amount of correlation in the teams being backed each week?
I think it is fair to say that yes, there will be some correlation, but I don't see this as being a problem in any way at all. First of all, when looking at the portfolio as a whole, it is set up pretty nicely in terms of minimising correlation. It is inevitable that there will be some, but thus far, very little. Some correlation between the two football ratings services should represent only a very small part of the overall portfolio turnover. Secondly - and this is a more significant point - both Graeme (TFA) and Stewboss (FI) have identified and exploited the potential of the teams that are picked out by two or more of their own respective systems. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but you can probably see what I'm thinking.
In the interests of transparency, I declare now though that I have already reached the stage of placing 99% of my football/sports bets with one of Pinnacle, 12bet, 188bet and SBO. I can get the odd bet on with Coral, Hills, and Bwin, but the days of me trawling through a host of bookies seeking the stand out price are long gone, I'm afraid. The knock on effect of this lack of choice in terms of where I can strike my football bets is that I am highly unlikely to be able to match the officially recorded ROI figures of the football services I follow. Again though, I am unconcerned. Let's remember that the point of the exercise in following more TFA systems and adding FI to the mix is to increase betting turnover and ROC, the new altar at which I worship.
I don't want anyone to be under the misconception that if and when the results recorded on this blog are running at lower levels of roi than those officially recorded by the services involved is due to those services being unfair or unrealistic in the way they record their performance. Let's face it, this is an accusation that can be levelled at some of the less scrupulous operators with some justification. There is an interesting debate around this subject in the SBC forum presently. It's noticeable that the main protagonists in that debate are the tipsters who, in my experience, operate the fairest policies towards the odds that they use to record their official results.
This is a subject I intend to discuss further in here. Not the content of the SBC forum debate, as that would be unfair. More the approach I take to trying to secure the best odds possible for each of the bets I place. Generally speaking, this involves no more than striking the bets as soon as I can after they hit my inbox, but there are one or two other points that are worth exploring.
More on this tomorrow.
Monday 8th April
Another losing day yesterday, although only mildly so. It would be nice to post a winning day sooner rather than later though, just so we can say that the recent rot has possibly been stopped.
No joy for On The Nose (0/1), Football Investor (Strike Zone) (0/1), or Football Investor (Combo) (0/1).
The one Winning Racing Tips bet finished second, providing a tiny profit (took me three bookmakers to get the bet on though, which isn't good!).
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, +0.033pts.
Football Investor (Strike Zone): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Football Investor (Combo): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
I think it is fair to say that yes, there will be some correlation, but I don't see this as being a problem in any way at all. First of all, when looking at the portfolio as a whole, it is set up pretty nicely in terms of minimising correlation. It is inevitable that there will be some, but thus far, very little. Some correlation between the two football ratings services should represent only a very small part of the overall portfolio turnover. Secondly - and this is a more significant point - both Graeme (TFA) and Stewboss (FI) have identified and exploited the potential of the teams that are picked out by two or more of their own respective systems. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but you can probably see what I'm thinking.
In the interests of transparency, I declare now though that I have already reached the stage of placing 99% of my football/sports bets with one of Pinnacle, 12bet, 188bet and SBO. I can get the odd bet on with Coral, Hills, and Bwin, but the days of me trawling through a host of bookies seeking the stand out price are long gone, I'm afraid. The knock on effect of this lack of choice in terms of where I can strike my football bets is that I am highly unlikely to be able to match the officially recorded ROI figures of the football services I follow. Again though, I am unconcerned. Let's remember that the point of the exercise in following more TFA systems and adding FI to the mix is to increase betting turnover and ROC, the new altar at which I worship.
I don't want anyone to be under the misconception that if and when the results recorded on this blog are running at lower levels of roi than those officially recorded by the services involved is due to those services being unfair or unrealistic in the way they record their performance. Let's face it, this is an accusation that can be levelled at some of the less scrupulous operators with some justification. There is an interesting debate around this subject in the SBC forum presently. It's noticeable that the main protagonists in that debate are the tipsters who, in my experience, operate the fairest policies towards the odds that they use to record their official results.
This is a subject I intend to discuss further in here. Not the content of the SBC forum debate, as that would be unfair. More the approach I take to trying to secure the best odds possible for each of the bets I place. Generally speaking, this involves no more than striking the bets as soon as I can after they hit my inbox, but there are one or two other points that are worth exploring.
More on this tomorrow.
Monday 8th April
Another losing day yesterday, although only mildly so. It would be nice to post a winning day sooner rather than later though, just so we can say that the recent rot has possibly been stopped.
No joy for On The Nose (0/1), Football Investor (Strike Zone) (0/1), or Football Investor (Combo) (0/1).
The one Winning Racing Tips bet finished second, providing a tiny profit (took me three bookmakers to get the bet on though, which isn't good!).
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, +0.033pts.
Football Investor (Strike Zone): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Football Investor (Combo): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Monday, 8 April 2013
Back to the Future with Football Investor.
Settle in. This could be a long one.
I don't know about you, but I am always thinking and planning for the future of my gambling. I have an ambition, an end-game or target if you like, but feel that I am still learning in terms of the best way of getting to where I want to be. To be honest, I want to learn. I believe that the moment you stop learning is the the moment you start going backwards, and that isn't something I want to do.
At some point in the relatively near future, a point in time that lies somewhere on a timescale covering the next couple of months to the next couple of years, I am going to have more funds at my gambling disposal. When this happens, gambling and trading is going to play a much more significant part in my life than they do at present. That's not belittling the role and importance of the income I currently generate from the portfolio - long term readers know what started me off on the gambling path and why it is I depend to an extent on this secondary income. But things are going to be ramped up, which in turn means that I must alter my mindset and methods of investing, changing my priorities slightly in terms of how I go about utilising the portfolio to squeeze the maximum from it. In short, gambling/trading will become less a profitable pastime, and more a full time business.
With this in mind, I have been analysing the way the portfolio is currently set up and have drawn two conclusions.
1. I am going to need to reduce my risk exposure (insofar as this is possible bearing in mind that any speculative operation has to, by definition, carry a level of risk that cannot be avoided); and
2. I am going to need to try to minimise the effects of variance on my capacity to generate as steady an income as possible (which is of course, closely linked to No.1).
Before we explore these points further, I just want to take a step backwards for a moment, and try to put all this into the context of making as much money as possible. You may remember me quoting a phrase on the blog a little while ago that I first heard from Graeme Dand (The Football Analyst) - "ROI for show, ROC for dough".
What Graeme was driving at is that at then end of it all, what really matters more than anything else is how much profit we, as investors, make. It's all very well shouting from the rooftops that an ROI of 20% was achieved over the last twelve months, but ultimately if the ROC over the same period equated to 20% (ie. the bank was turned over just the once) then the fact is that you wouldn't have made as much money as you would, had the roi been just 5% but the bank turned over several times. A bank of £10k turned over once each year but yielding an ROI of 20% gives the investor a profit of £2k per annum (20% ROC). A bank of £10k turned over ten times each year and yielding an roi of 5% gives the investor a profit of £5k per annum (50% ROC).
Obviously these figures are a little simplistic and things aren't that clear cut in real life, but you can see the point I'm making. So what does it mean going forward?
It tells us that turnover is key, assuming of course that what we are using to generate the turnover does possess an edge on the book (all this theory goes out of the window of course, if we're following tipsters who can't produce a profit, but let's assume that we're working with good tipping services here). It also tells us that the significance of ROI is lessened considerably, and the importance of ROC increases massively. It tells us that we need to be exploring ways to ensure that our portfolios are maximising the potentially achievable levels of ROC; in other words, our portfolio needs to be making the money devoted to it by means of a betting bank work as hard as it possibly can for us.
That's the theory, but how can we take steps towards making this a reality? It is here that I return to the two conclusions I made and mentioned above. Not only are we now concentrating more on maximising potential ROC levels and increasing betting turnover, but we are at the same time trying to reduce risk levels and the potential effects of variance. Increased turnover, generated through services that are proven to be profitable and which use a high number of bets to achieve their aims (and so turn over their bank at a good speed), should help the investor to meet all of these targets.
Let me use The Football Analyst System 7-22 as an example to illustrate my point. As you know, I am a disciple of this system, and from amongst the smorgasbord of systems offered on the TFA platter, is the sole UK system I picked out to follow this season. It hasn't let me down either, now running along rather nicely. But the fact is that it filters out a lot of the bets from the other UK-based established systems and the number of bets over the course of a season is going to be relatively limited. I'm not doubting the system's ability to turn an exceptional profit, nor to achieve a highly impressive ROC, just has it has done thus far, but with limited bet numbers it is susceptible to variance. Anything slightly out of the ordinary in terms of negative variance could potentially have a distinct adverse affect on a season's betting performance, despite that variance representing just a tiny blip in the grander scheme of 7-22 things. Which is fine when in my current position, but when considering a future change in circumstance in which overall, betting is going to be ramped up, does it not make sense to reduce that potentially erosive affect of variance by adopting more TFA systems, thus producing more bets, which will in turn work through the cycles of variance much more quickly? I'm sure that this principle is a massive part of why Systematic Betting is so successful...high and fast turnover. Losing runs and drawdowns are just as deep, but are over and done with much more quickly.
All this is not to say that I am going to be radically altering the make-up of the portfolio. I'm not. Despite what I have just said, I still see an important role for the lower turnover services that utilise specialist knowledge to create and exploit an edge. The likes of Skeeve will remain as integral constituents of the portfolio. Skeeve's edge is based on the acquisition of knowledge and of becoming more expert on the Blue Square Premier League than the traders that work for the bookmakers. The Sportsman exploits markets that perhaps are not given the same attention by the traders as are the 1-2-x markets. What these services provide of course, is diversification, an important element within any portfolio that is balanced to minimise risk.
However, I do wish to considerably up my turnover via football betting (because I can get bets into the market via Pinnacle and SBO), and the easiest way to do this is via proven, profitable systems based on ratings. I have The Football Analyst of course, but I can reveal that as of now, I am adding Football Investor to the portfolio.
I mentioned a few days ago how wrong I was to fail to renew my subs after a poor season in 2011/12. It was a repeat of a mistake I had previously made with On The Oche and I am without an excuse, because the circumstances that led to each decision were almost identical. So, a slap on the wrists for me (that's the problem with writing a blog - mistakes are there for everybody to see and laugh at!).
Stewboss, the chap whose service is Football Investor, has transformed the offering made to subscribers. There are now more systems, more bets, improved returns; it's not hard to see why, in the context of this post, why I am now so attracted to it. Football Investor can now play a large part in raising my overall portfolio to where I want it to be, it is as simple as that. Ally this to a wider TFA system portfolio for next season, and to another series of ratings-based football bets that I pick up from a private forum (these will be known as GB bets to appeal to the pariotic amongst you!), and you can see how my betting turnover is going to go up significantly. When you consider that Summer Of Football is relatively high turnover and that the new approach adopted by Football Elite has led to an increased number of bets, then you can see that I am going to be a busy boy. Ultimately, you deserve nothing to my mind, unless you're prepared to work for it. If working harder leads to more money coming in, and to what that means in the wider scheme of things, then it has got to be worth it. Hopefully, I'm not only going to be working harder, but also smarter.
I want to round this post up by thanking Stewboss. Quite rightly in my opinion, he doesn't take on monthly memberships, and he has closed the service for the season for obvious reasons. He has allowed me to jump on board though to enable me to see just how much workload I can take on in readiness for next season. I'm playing the bets this month and then will sit down to work out my FI portfolio for 2013/14, although I already have a pretty good idea exactly what that will be.
I'm excited. Without going into detail, life is going to get pretty interesting. Like I say, events may happen very quickly. They may take longer to materialise, possibly even a couple of years, but the one thing I know for a fact is that they will, at some point, happen. When they do, it will be all systems go (heh! - no pun intended). I'm very aware however that I need to prepare myself as well as I can and take steps now to gear the portfolio up to exactly how I want it moving forwards. Bringing Football Investor back in to where it should never have left, and targetting overall ROC as opposed to ROI, is a big leap towards that end.
Weekend's Betting
Now I know this is rather low calibre of me, but to be quite frank, I really can't be arsed totting up the points totals for each service from Friday through to Sunday. I'm going to have to start sticking up a quick results post on the Saturday and Sunday I think, because come the Monday, it has become a chore.
All you need to know for the weekend just gone is that it was a crap one. The only services to avoid making a loss was Skeeve - and the profit here was minimal - the aforementioned GB bets, and Winning Racing Tips which had a winner on Friday (Romantic - Dundalk - 9/2). Every other service either lost or didn't provide bets. Adding everything up, the overall deficit was pretty sizeable.
More worryingly is that all of a sudden, the bookies are putting the squeeze on. I have to seriously consider whether continuing to follow 4PA is at all practical and getting the stakes on each of the last three Winning Racing Tips has been problematic. I understand that the nature of the races targeted by WRT are such that you might expect difficulties, but up until now, I've never had too much of an issue. I get the feeling that some of my remaining horse race betting bookmaker accounts are on their last legs, and if so, is a real problem in the making.
I don't know about you, but I am always thinking and planning for the future of my gambling. I have an ambition, an end-game or target if you like, but feel that I am still learning in terms of the best way of getting to where I want to be. To be honest, I want to learn. I believe that the moment you stop learning is the the moment you start going backwards, and that isn't something I want to do.
At some point in the relatively near future, a point in time that lies somewhere on a timescale covering the next couple of months to the next couple of years, I am going to have more funds at my gambling disposal. When this happens, gambling and trading is going to play a much more significant part in my life than they do at present. That's not belittling the role and importance of the income I currently generate from the portfolio - long term readers know what started me off on the gambling path and why it is I depend to an extent on this secondary income. But things are going to be ramped up, which in turn means that I must alter my mindset and methods of investing, changing my priorities slightly in terms of how I go about utilising the portfolio to squeeze the maximum from it. In short, gambling/trading will become less a profitable pastime, and more a full time business.
With this in mind, I have been analysing the way the portfolio is currently set up and have drawn two conclusions.
1. I am going to need to reduce my risk exposure (insofar as this is possible bearing in mind that any speculative operation has to, by definition, carry a level of risk that cannot be avoided); and
2. I am going to need to try to minimise the effects of variance on my capacity to generate as steady an income as possible (which is of course, closely linked to No.1).
Before we explore these points further, I just want to take a step backwards for a moment, and try to put all this into the context of making as much money as possible. You may remember me quoting a phrase on the blog a little while ago that I first heard from Graeme Dand (The Football Analyst) - "ROI for show, ROC for dough".
What Graeme was driving at is that at then end of it all, what really matters more than anything else is how much profit we, as investors, make. It's all very well shouting from the rooftops that an ROI of 20% was achieved over the last twelve months, but ultimately if the ROC over the same period equated to 20% (ie. the bank was turned over just the once) then the fact is that you wouldn't have made as much money as you would, had the roi been just 5% but the bank turned over several times. A bank of £10k turned over once each year but yielding an ROI of 20% gives the investor a profit of £2k per annum (20% ROC). A bank of £10k turned over ten times each year and yielding an roi of 5% gives the investor a profit of £5k per annum (50% ROC).
Obviously these figures are a little simplistic and things aren't that clear cut in real life, but you can see the point I'm making. So what does it mean going forward?
It tells us that turnover is key, assuming of course that what we are using to generate the turnover does possess an edge on the book (all this theory goes out of the window of course, if we're following tipsters who can't produce a profit, but let's assume that we're working with good tipping services here). It also tells us that the significance of ROI is lessened considerably, and the importance of ROC increases massively. It tells us that we need to be exploring ways to ensure that our portfolios are maximising the potentially achievable levels of ROC; in other words, our portfolio needs to be making the money devoted to it by means of a betting bank work as hard as it possibly can for us.
That's the theory, but how can we take steps towards making this a reality? It is here that I return to the two conclusions I made and mentioned above. Not only are we now concentrating more on maximising potential ROC levels and increasing betting turnover, but we are at the same time trying to reduce risk levels and the potential effects of variance. Increased turnover, generated through services that are proven to be profitable and which use a high number of bets to achieve their aims (and so turn over their bank at a good speed), should help the investor to meet all of these targets.
Let me use The Football Analyst System 7-22 as an example to illustrate my point. As you know, I am a disciple of this system, and from amongst the smorgasbord of systems offered on the TFA platter, is the sole UK system I picked out to follow this season. It hasn't let me down either, now running along rather nicely. But the fact is that it filters out a lot of the bets from the other UK-based established systems and the number of bets over the course of a season is going to be relatively limited. I'm not doubting the system's ability to turn an exceptional profit, nor to achieve a highly impressive ROC, just has it has done thus far, but with limited bet numbers it is susceptible to variance. Anything slightly out of the ordinary in terms of negative variance could potentially have a distinct adverse affect on a season's betting performance, despite that variance representing just a tiny blip in the grander scheme of 7-22 things. Which is fine when in my current position, but when considering a future change in circumstance in which overall, betting is going to be ramped up, does it not make sense to reduce that potentially erosive affect of variance by adopting more TFA systems, thus producing more bets, which will in turn work through the cycles of variance much more quickly? I'm sure that this principle is a massive part of why Systematic Betting is so successful...high and fast turnover. Losing runs and drawdowns are just as deep, but are over and done with much more quickly.
All this is not to say that I am going to be radically altering the make-up of the portfolio. I'm not. Despite what I have just said, I still see an important role for the lower turnover services that utilise specialist knowledge to create and exploit an edge. The likes of Skeeve will remain as integral constituents of the portfolio. Skeeve's edge is based on the acquisition of knowledge and of becoming more expert on the Blue Square Premier League than the traders that work for the bookmakers. The Sportsman exploits markets that perhaps are not given the same attention by the traders as are the 1-2-x markets. What these services provide of course, is diversification, an important element within any portfolio that is balanced to minimise risk.
However, I do wish to considerably up my turnover via football betting (because I can get bets into the market via Pinnacle and SBO), and the easiest way to do this is via proven, profitable systems based on ratings. I have The Football Analyst of course, but I can reveal that as of now, I am adding Football Investor to the portfolio.
I mentioned a few days ago how wrong I was to fail to renew my subs after a poor season in 2011/12. It was a repeat of a mistake I had previously made with On The Oche and I am without an excuse, because the circumstances that led to each decision were almost identical. So, a slap on the wrists for me (that's the problem with writing a blog - mistakes are there for everybody to see and laugh at!).
Stewboss, the chap whose service is Football Investor, has transformed the offering made to subscribers. There are now more systems, more bets, improved returns; it's not hard to see why, in the context of this post, why I am now so attracted to it. Football Investor can now play a large part in raising my overall portfolio to where I want it to be, it is as simple as that. Ally this to a wider TFA system portfolio for next season, and to another series of ratings-based football bets that I pick up from a private forum (these will be known as GB bets to appeal to the pariotic amongst you!), and you can see how my betting turnover is going to go up significantly. When you consider that Summer Of Football is relatively high turnover and that the new approach adopted by Football Elite has led to an increased number of bets, then you can see that I am going to be a busy boy. Ultimately, you deserve nothing to my mind, unless you're prepared to work for it. If working harder leads to more money coming in, and to what that means in the wider scheme of things, then it has got to be worth it. Hopefully, I'm not only going to be working harder, but also smarter.
I want to round this post up by thanking Stewboss. Quite rightly in my opinion, he doesn't take on monthly memberships, and he has closed the service for the season for obvious reasons. He has allowed me to jump on board though to enable me to see just how much workload I can take on in readiness for next season. I'm playing the bets this month and then will sit down to work out my FI portfolio for 2013/14, although I already have a pretty good idea exactly what that will be.
I'm excited. Without going into detail, life is going to get pretty interesting. Like I say, events may happen very quickly. They may take longer to materialise, possibly even a couple of years, but the one thing I know for a fact is that they will, at some point, happen. When they do, it will be all systems go (heh! - no pun intended). I'm very aware however that I need to prepare myself as well as I can and take steps now to gear the portfolio up to exactly how I want it moving forwards. Bringing Football Investor back in to where it should never have left, and targetting overall ROC as opposed to ROI, is a big leap towards that end.
Weekend's Betting
Now I know this is rather low calibre of me, but to be quite frank, I really can't be arsed totting up the points totals for each service from Friday through to Sunday. I'm going to have to start sticking up a quick results post on the Saturday and Sunday I think, because come the Monday, it has become a chore.
All you need to know for the weekend just gone is that it was a crap one. The only services to avoid making a loss was Skeeve - and the profit here was minimal - the aforementioned GB bets, and Winning Racing Tips which had a winner on Friday (Romantic - Dundalk - 9/2). Every other service either lost or didn't provide bets. Adding everything up, the overall deficit was pretty sizeable.
More worryingly is that all of a sudden, the bookies are putting the squeeze on. I have to seriously consider whether continuing to follow 4PA is at all practical and getting the stakes on each of the last three Winning Racing Tips has been problematic. I understand that the nature of the races targeted by WRT are such that you might expect difficulties, but up until now, I've never had too much of an issue. I get the feeling that some of my remaining horse race betting bookmaker accounts are on their last legs, and if so, is a real problem in the making.
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