Thursday, 20 September 2012

It is often said that to create an edge at betting, you have to go against crowd sentiment. You need to go against the grain and adopt a stance contrary to the masses. I shouldn't think this is a particularly easy thing to do. You've got to be very sure of your talents and clear in your strategy. I don't think I could do it.

Which is why adding Winning Racing Tips - Systems to the portfolio feels like I'm going against my own grain. I feel like I'm going back on my whole strategy of loading the portfolio far more towards football/sports betting, a move I've made over the last few months for practical reasons (ie. being able to get bets on and work around the problem of dealing with bookmakers who don't necessarily want to take a bet). Why do that, and then add a racing service to the rosta?

Well, I have a cunning plan. Allow me to explain.

I currently have five BOG bookmaker accounts left open to me. Whenever I get a tip through, I find which bookmakers are offering the best odds. Often, it will be two or three of the five, sometimes all of them. I split my stake equally across each of those with the best price.

Consequently, I am often putting very small bets on with an individual bookmaker. The sort of bet that makes me look like a mug punter playing for a bit of interest. If you had a profiler looking at my BOG account record, they might well come to the conclusion that I'm a pensioner who likes watching the racing of an afternoon and having a few fun bets. Certainly the liabilities on each of these bets is more often than not, fairly small, and as we all know, it is the liability as opposed to the size of the bet that worries the likes of Fred Done and William Hill. Keep this in mind as I go on.

Paul of Winning Racing Tips is releasing selections garnered from three different systems. One of them, the 'Favourite's' system is the one I shall be following. It boasts a high strike rate, but as the name suggests, plays at short prices, and a number of selections will be priced odds on. Not unlike those selections often given by The Sportsman Racing. The thing is, you see, I never have any trouble getting the bigger stakes involved with TSR into the market, probably due to the fact that although the stake is relatively high, the odds being much shorter means the liability isn't that great.

So when I add Paul's WRT - Favourite's System bets to those of the services I follow who tend to play at higher odds, my accounts are going to see small bets going on what are generally bigger prices, whilst much bigger bets going on short priced favourites (including odds on shots). What message will that convey to Mr. Bookmaker? That I'm a bit of a mug punter, perhaps?

Theoretically, yes. In reality, who knows? It's all very well coming across as a mug punter, but if the balance in each account is a rising tide of profit (over time), I'm not sure how far this strategy will take me. I'm prepared to give it a whirl though, and with Paul's reputation for integrity beyond doubt (and as I mentioned the other day, I've been a member of Paul's WRT for as long as any service), I feel I have relatively little to lose.

Wednesday's Betting

A relatively quiet, but successful day's punting, with just two services providing bets.

Service X
Four bets overnight, rendering three wins and a loss.
Staked 11pts, +2.575pts

High class tipping from the tennis specialist with three winning bets from three.
Staked 5.5pts, +5.302pts

Month's figures to date...

Northern Monkey: Staked 24.25pts, -1.874pts, roi -7.72%
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3pts, +0.166pts, roi 5.53%
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 4.7pts, +8.794pts, roi 187.11%
Total roi 53.39%

Football Elite: Staked 3pts, +0.7pts, roi 23.33%
The Football Analyst: Staked 1pt, +0.19pts, roi 19%
Summer Of Football: Staked 22pts, +6.542pts, roi 29.73%
Skeeve (Asians): Staked 24pts, -12.805pts, roi -53.35%
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 15pts, +11.512pts, roi 76.74%
Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 9pts, -7.565pts, roi -84.05%
Skeeve Total: Staked 48pts, -8.858pts, roi -18.45%
The Sportsman: Staked 0.65pts, +0.178pts, roi 27.38%
Form Lab Lite: Staked 25pts, -0.646pts, roi -2.58%
Sportyy: Staked 22pts, +7.762pts, roi 35.28%
Service X: Staked 161pts, +9.12pts, roi 5.66%
Total roi 10.88%

Grand Total roi 16.8%

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