Monday, 1 October 2012

For the first time in a long time, I felt a wee bit out of my comfort zone over the weekend. I felt a bit like the American Ryder Cup team must have felt on Saturday evening. Nicely up and looking good but not with a lead that could be considered entirely secure. A couple of very bad days and the reward for a month's hard gambling could lay in ruins, especially as from Friday evening the amount of money being staked over the two days was reaching what was for me, a record high. I guess that's my personal characteristics coming out. Nothing like a bit of pressure for bringing out one's true colours; worrying about might go wrong as opposed to optimistically looking forward to what might go right reveals a pessimistic outlook, does it not?

That I felt vulnerable over the last couple of days surprised me. The portfolio has been performing well for a few months now and in the grander scheme of things, the performance of just one weekend bears no significance at all. I know this, so why did I feel the way I did?

Thinking about it all, I believe that the overriding thought going through my head was that I was placing at risk the rewards gained from all the hard work over the previous 28 days of September. It is hard work, running a portfolio. Apart from all the psychological demands it places on you, the sheer number of bets placed and results to record ultimately takes a toll. In fact, by Saturday lunchtime, I was feeling decidedly battle fatigued. There are occasions when opening up a bookmaker site yet again to place yet another bet becomes wearisome. Stupid really. It's not proper work, is it? It's not working in a sweat shop or down a coalface for a relative pittance. I feel quite ashamed to be complaining in this way. But that's how I feel about it at times and there's no getting away from it. Betting becomes a treadmill that you can't jump off for fear of missing that big winner that makes such a difference to your bottom line. Running a portfolio properly means that you are ruled by fear. It is in this context that I was abnormally concerned about this weekend's betting. I was desparate to avoid what would be the kick in the teeth that seeing a month's worth of effort left in tatters by a couple of days bad performance.

As it happens, the weekend was a disappoinitng one. It proved to be a shocker for Form Lab Lite with only one winner from nine bets, and the current run is worrying. Taking results from the last high point hit, the drawdown is now around half the size of the bank. Add subsequent subscription costs and it's struggling. Fingers crossed all we are seeing is the rough side of variance, but it has got to the stage where I need to be keeping a close eye on things.

On the brighter side, The Football Analyst 7/22 had a very decent weekend. Five bets, three winners, a void and just one loser. I have to confess I gulped a little when I found out there were five 7/22 bets on Saturday, but I need to get used to this. TFA's European bets are going to start coming through now, further upping the amount laid out each weekend.

Other than that, Skeeve, Football Elite, Service X, and The Sportsman all posted losses of varying degrees, whilst the consistent Summer Of Football provided a small but significant piece of profit.

The racing was fairly uninspiring too. Two winners for the Winning Racing Systems at short odds, Northern Monkey got a few to place on Saturday for a small, positive return, but On The Nose posted a small loss on it's return to action.

It's important to get things into context though. September wasn't a bad month at all. Turnover was up as you would expect, and the overall roi of 6.52% is ok without being inspiring. Too many services stuttered to allow the profits of a great month to accrue, but at the end of it all, I have to be fairly pleased with the amount made. A raise of the hat to Winning Racing Tips for an outstanding performance that hauled the racing profit to very decent levels. Similarly, Summer Of Football enjoyed another fine month for the sports portfolio, and The Football Analyst 7/22 flexed it's muscles impressively, promising much for the rest of the season ahead.

September's Figures (plus ytd figures from 1/8/12)

Northern Monkey: Staked 40.65pts, -9.419pts, roi -23.17%
Staked 87.025pts, +3.867pts, roi 4.44%, ROC 3.86%

On The Nose: Staked 5pts, -3pts, roi -60%
Staked 57.5pts, +10.319pts, roi 17.94%, ROC 10.13%

The Sportsman Racing: Staked 3.5pts, -0.333pts, roi -9.52%
Staked 7.5pts, -1.28pts, roi -17.06%, ROC -3.2%

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 9.3pts, +11.879pts, roi 127.73%
Staked 17.9pts, +11.193pts, roi 62.53%, ROC 37.31%

Winning Racing Systems: Staked 8pts, +2.11pts, roi 26.38%
Staked 8pts, +2.11pts, 26.38%, ROC 7.03%

The Market Examiner: N/A
Staked 34pts, -14.8pts, roi -43.52%, ROC -9.86%

Total for September roi 28.32%
Total for year roi 20.61%


Football Elite: Staked 6pts, -0.265pts, roi -4.42%
Staked 7pts, -0.265pts, roi -3.78%, ROC -1.06%

The Football Analyst (7/22): Staked 5.5pts, +2.932pts, roi 53.3%
Staked 5.5pts, +2.932pts, roi 53.3%

The Football Analyst (Euro): N/A

The Football Analyst (Total): Staked 5.5pts, +2.932pts, roi 53.3%
Staked 5.5pts, +2.932pts, roi 53.3%, ROC 14.66%

Summer Of Football: Staked 36pts, +9.141pts, roi 25.39%
Staked 62pts, +18.927pts, roi 30.52%, ROC 75.7%

Skeeve (Asians): Staked 46pts, -7.341pts, roi -15.95%
Staked 63pts, -7.067pts, roi -11.21%

Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 25pts, +10.321pts, roi 41.28%
Staked 36pts, +8.65pts, roi 24.02%

Skeeve (Shortlist): Staked 11pts, -8.185pts, roi -74.41%
Staked 15pts, -9.373pts, roi -62.48%

Skeeve Total: Staked 82pts, -5.205pts, roi -6.34%
Staked 114pts, -7.784pts, roi -6.82%, ROC -9.73%

The Sportsman: Staked 1.45pts, -0.472pts, roi -32.55%
Staked 2.25pts, -0.388pts, roi -17.24%, ROC -6.46%

Form Lab Lite: Staked 47pts, -11.129pts, roi -23.67%
Staked 78pts, -18.124pts, roi -22.23%, ROC -36.24%

Sportyy: Staked 55.5pts, +5.565pts, roi 10.02%
Staked 104pts, +27.816pts, roi 26.74%, ROC 34.77%

Service X: Staked 272pts, +7.43pts, roi 2.73%
Staked 537.2pts, +43.263pts, roi 8.05%, ROC 43.26%

On The Oche: Staked 8.4pts, +0.766pts, roi 9.12%
Staked 8.4pts, +0.766pts, roi 9.12%, ROC 2.18%

Total for September roi 2.76%
Total for year roi 6.5%

Grand total for September roi 6.52%
Grand total for year roi 9.34%

That's enough for tonight. See you tomorrow.


  1. Hi Rowan

    Enjoyed reading this post because it is exactly what I go through at the end of each month, I almost want to say no bets members - we've had an excellent month but surely you have to keep sticking to your principles and take the good bets on? I don't think that month end feeling will ever go away!

    J -

    1. Hi James,

      I've written more about this tonight. Can certainly see where you're coming from. Human nature. If I'm honest, when I've had a decent month and a tipster comes through at the end saying they've not got much by way of tips, I'm pretty happy myself.

      Have what you hold, and all that.

      Well done on another great month, btw.


  2. Very interesting blog, I ran a very profitable portfolio last year (just racing) which included On the Nose, after 9 months I was virtually shutdown by almost every main UK online bookie, profit was about 18K in 9 months but I gave it up due to the restrictions, BOG is a huge advantage when backing IMO and once that edge goes profits are harder to maintain. Would love to start another portfolio including sports if I had any other outlet apart from Betfair. You can see one of my best bets on my profile pic @ProfessaGreenup on Twitter, that one killed my WH account. Keep up the good work, excellent blog.

    1. Hi David,

      Thanks for the comment and pleased you enjoy the blog.

      I did go through a stage of thinking that BOG shouldn't be necessary, but I've changed my mind. I also think if I knew a little while ago what I know now, I'd have protected my accounts a bit better and made them last longer.

      As far as sports portfolios are concerned, look at using the Asian bookmakers if you haven't already. You should be able to get decent stakeds into the market without worrying about restrictions.

      Cheers now,