Thursday, 11 October 2012

Great comments and more on odds.

A couple of very interesting comments left after last night's post. I suggest you read them if you haven't done so already.

The question of what odds should be taken on any individual bet should the advised price be gone is a thorny one and one which I happen to think is impossible to answer conclusively. James of Summer Of Football has again addressed the issue in an email sent out to members this morning.

Apparently, some of James's subscribers took a different line on the asian handicap to the one that was advised, thus securing a higher price on the selection. I know others that always look to do this when the relevant circumstances dictate, but I'm not personally too keen on this strategy. To my mind, taking a different line on the handicap is taking a fundamentally different bet to the one which the tipster originally identified as possessing strong value. I would also question whether value was still present in the alternative line. I don't know if this is the case, but if say, the price on the -0.75 handicap line shortens significantly, doesn't the price on the -1 line shorten too, thus eroding any value that may have originally existed on that line? Answers on a cyber-postcard, please.

Anyway, James seemed almost apologetic for addressing the issue of shortening prices and talking about possible solutions to the problem. Personally, I appreciate any tipster I follow taking the time and effort to explore the issue out in the open. Many services don't concern themselves too much with whether or not their paying customers are able to maximise their profits. All the less scrupulous ones are bothered about is headline results which they can use to advertise and thus attract new customers. This of course makes existing customers a less important consideration in the grand scheme of things as the service merely maintains a churn that provides them with an ongoing income.

I feel very fortunate with the services in my portfolio when it comes to attitudes towards customers securing the best possible odds on selections and the prices at which results are officially recorded. Matt of Football Elite quotes the best price available half an hour after release of selections, Skeeve adopts a similar policy although has to be a little stricter in terms of timings due to the nature of the markets in which he specialises. Graeme, The Football Analyst also adopts this strategy, but I know for a fact that he quotes official prices that are frequently lower than the best available at time of bet release.

Next week I'll discuss another issue that I'm having to deal with more and more when it comes to securing the right odds on my football bets, and that is the fact that I am having to adapt to the consequences of channelling so much of my betting through the Asian bookmakers.

No time right now though, so that will have to wait.

Wednesday's Betting

Much better day.

A nice winner from On The Nose (Armenian Boy - Ludlow - 13/2). Ahead after jumping the last but tiring rapidly, I thought the jockey was going to come off his mount so unbalanced did he become in his urgings of the horse twoards the line. Just held on, thankfully.

The Winning Racing Systems (Favs) bet came second after looking all over the winner entering the final furlong, which was a real shame for after drifting to a price of 7/2, it would have provided a very nice return.

A good day for Sportyy with two from two (Querrey to bt Nishikori - 1.95 and Baghdatis +2.5 games vs Raonic - 1.94). The one On The Oche bet was a winner too (King to bt Chisnall - 11/8), as was the sole Service X selection in Chile.

Winning Racing Systems (Favs): Staked 1pt, -1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 1pt, +2.75pts.

Sportyy: Staked 3.5pts, +3.324pts.
On The Oche: Staked 0.5pts, +0.687pts.
Service X: Staked 3pts, +2.941pts.

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