Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Winter with Northern Monkey

Blimey O'Reilly - that was a heck of a game of football!

Northern Monkey epitomises the model tipping service. It is very reasonably priced, has a discernible edge proven over a large number of bets, contains excellent daily write-ups of the reasons behind why the selections are selections, and is run by a highly personable chap in Wayne (who I guess is the Northern Monkey) who obviously cares greatly about levels of customer service.

Members of Northern Monkey received an email yesterday which outlined Wayne's plans for the all-weather season, which starts after the weekend's last flat turf meeting at Doncaster. Although marginally profitable, the service's record over the off-season (which runs officially from December to February, a period for which Wayne charges members a reduced subscription fee) hasn't provided the level of returns comparable to those bets that run on grass. Wayne has therefore taken stock of the situation and has opted for a different strategy with which to approach all weather racing, in an attempt to boost returns for his subscribers during the darker winter months.

I don't want to go into any great detail here as that would not be fair, but Wayne's strategy is more systematic than the approach he takes to identifying value bets on turf racing, which is based on astute reading of the form book. He has spotted a potential angle on the all weather, researched it thoroughly, and has now settled upon a way forward. Of course this has an impact on how I follow Northern Monkey over the next few months.

It is always good to see a service analyse their performance, identify where their strengths and weaknesses lie, and then act to exploit those strengths and counteract the weaknesses. It demonstrates that the tipster is not nestling within the warm and cosy arms of a comfort zone, happy to plod along, simply letting things happen. Rather, the tipster concerned is mindful of his subscribers, not to mention maintaining (and even increasing) the size of the edge previously established.

Looking at the backtested results of Northern Monkey's system, the thing that hit me immediately is that performance levels could drop significantly and still provide an excellent return. But, the reality is that the strategy is untested in a live environment. Wayne is aware that "live" results are unlikely to mirror those attained during the backtesting stage, and warns that, "systems rarely work out as well in practice as they appear on paper". He is hopeful of a decent return though, and I can understand why.

I am going to follow these selections with my own money, but, I am going to use low stakes. The way I see it, if the systems perform well, which we all hope they will, then they will be used next year I'm sure, at which time I can up my stakes.

It's been a good month for Northern Monkey. Wayne mentioned that he felt the way to deal with a relatively poor September was to be a little more selective in his approach to identifying his selections through October, and it has been a policy that has paid off nicely. Let's see what the winter brings.

Tuesday's Betting

Northern Monkey: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Systems (Favourites): Staked 1pt, +1pt.
On The Nose: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.108pts.

Sportyy: Staked 3pts, -3pts.

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