Wednesday, 17 October 2012

Losing starts.

Tuesday's Betting

Yesterday was a horrible day on the horses. The month to date profit, which was running at a very healthy enough 7% was eradicated, and then some. The chief culprit was the recently joined Winning Racing Systems (Favs), which had an unusually high five runners. Four of them lost, and the price of the winner (Kingdom - The Curragh - 2/5) was such that it didn't really reduce the losses by any significant measure. Not good.

I imagine Paul is cursing his luck. Anyone launching a new tipping service must pray that they get off to a decent start, not because of any lack of faith in their ability to pick winners or the system upon which they are relying, but because they know that a poor start will bring out the doubters and an inevitable period of firefighting will follow. I imagine it was this scenario that led to Paul sending out an email containing a link to a blog post he had written which reminded readers of the inadequacies of small samples of data when trying to draw definitive conclusions and the need to set appropriate banks for each service followed. All of which of course, is good stuff, and quite right.

But, I can understand that there may be some who have joined and are thinking What The Devil!?!, or something like that. I've had these thoughts myself. It's inevitable. It's inevitable because as a follower of a new service, you have had no time to build up trust in the service. in the absence of this trust, you can't help but to start asking yourself questions - do these short priced selections hold value? Is the system losing it's edge? Does Paul know what he's doing? What experience has taught me is to take a step back and hard though it is, to try and separate oneself from the emotion of it all and try and analyse the situation with a cold, emotionless Dr. Spock-like logic.

Proofed results for this system show an historical roi achieved of c.20%. That is a pretty persuasive defence to any accusation of the system either losing it's edge or of kicking up bets that don't hold value. And as for Paul? Well, if there's one thing following Winning Racing Tips for a number of years has taught me, is that Paul is a shrewd cookie who very definitely does know what he's doing and over any long term period, does it well.

I endured a similar start to my time with Sportyy earlier this year. I managed to join at a time that coincided with the tennis expert looking anything but. Over the last two and a half months though, Dani has been consistently excellent, proving his worth through being one of the top performers in the portfolio. When I think back to my lack of confidence in the service at the end of June, when under similar circumstances to those we're now experiencing with Winning Racing Systems, I can only smile at my own crass stupidity. The lesson to learn has to be to give any new service or system time to prove itself.

The fact that Winning Racing Systems (Favourites) plays at short odds exacerbates the feelings of unease when a poor run strikes. I don't know about anyone else, but when I back a horse at odds on, I can't help but expect the thing to win. When the foolish beast loses, it hits me harder than it does when a 10/1 shot I've backed loses, simply due to these raised levels of expectation.

Look, let's face it, the old principles of efficient and proper bank management apply here. Set these up as you should, then all should be well. If the system continues to lose money and uses up the bank, then I for one will cast it aside. I'd be daft not to, but I'd be equally as daft to drop it before reaching that point, for to do so makes a mockery of setting up a bank for it in the first place. Looking on the bright side, sticking bigger stakes on losing odds on shots ought to be making those BOG bookies look at me with a twinkle in their eye and a knowing look. They think I'm a mug. Happy days!

Talking of Sportyy it was that service that pulled me out of the horse racing mire with three cracking winners from four bets. Northern Monkey (0/1) and On The Nose (0/2) found as many difficulties as WRS on the winner finding front.

Finally Service X managed to find three winners from four overnight and the overall total on the day was a pretty small loss. Not bad, all things considered.

On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, -1.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 1pt, -1pt.
Winning Racing Systems (Favourites): Staked 5pts, -3.6pts.

Sportyy: Staked 6.5pts, +6.761pts.
Service X: Staked 10pts, +2.997pts.

Finally, I had to mention this...

There's a spamming bot that is constantly sending me messages in "google translate" English, which usually is fairly irritating if harmless. However, this last one made me smile:

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