Wednesday, 6 March 2013

February racing review.

I knew it. I just knew it. If Van Per$i€ wanted a longer run in Europe, he should have stayed put last summer.

So, February. In black and white terms, the month can only be described as underwhelming, the final roi settling at 3.55%. Turnover was 118% of that of January, the reason being the racing and football was less affected by bad weather.

I shall cover the racing today, and the sports portfolio tomorrow.

Horse Racing

Total ROI across the racing portfolio was -2.6%. This places the ROI on the racing for 2013 to date at 8.62% and the ROC at 6.83%.

Northern Monkey: Staked 25.25pts, +10.142pts, roi 40.16%
(Staked: 52.25pts, +16.96pts, roi 32.45%, ROC 26.09%)

An excellent performance from Wayne who obviously didn't allow his team's glorious run to Wembley distract him from the task of turning a good profit on the month, and it's been a very strong start to the year. I'm pleased with the service on a couple of issues.

Firstly, I'm glad that last Autumn, Wayne soon brought an end the experiment in utilising a sytematic approach to finding selections on the all weather. Nothing against using a system per se, it just didn't feel right with such bets coming from Wayne. One of the strengths of the service, to my mind anyway, is the rationale provided for each selection and the understanding of the form book the write up often reveals.

Secondly, Northern Monkey has introduced a scheme that I would like to see other tipping services embrace, and that is provide a discounted rate of subscription for long term members who have over time, demonstrated their loyalty. I've touched on this before on the blog, but I do find a company's attempts to attract new customers by offering all sorts of incentives often appear to be made at the cost of existing customers, who rarely if ever receive discounts or other special concessions. Sky is a prime example of this. Concessions and discounts in return for loyalty from a customer is something I would like to see a lot more of.

On The Nose: Staked: 26.5pts, -3.75pts, roi -14.15%
(Staked 48.75pts, -13.875pts, roi -28.46%, ROC -13.875%)

From reading a recent email The Judge sent out to his subscribers, it would appear that there may be one or two things happening behind the scenes at OTN that will hopefully have a positive knock on effect on the service. It's been a relatively lean time over the last 12-14 months all told and it's been unfortunate that the beginning of 2013 hasn't seen the service push on from what looked like very promising signs of a return to form during the back end of last year. The fallow period has proven to be too lengthy for the SBC, who recently dropped On The Nose from their Hall of Fame, but I'm sticking with it for the moment.

The Judge has acted very honourably, professing to feeling "awkward" at charging his customers during periods of loss, and that is an admirable approach to take; he has extended the subscription periods for those who paid until the end of March until the end of April, and that sort of offer encourages patience. Personally, I feel that the service just needs the rub of the green and given it, has the potential to fly again. I certainly want to give it every chance to do so. Ultimately though, a line has to be drawn somewhere, at some time. Let's hope that time can be avoided.

The Sportsman Racing: Staked 1.5pts, +0.41pts, roi 27.38%
(Staked 5.5pts, +1.061pts, roi 19.29%, ROC 4.24%)

A very quiet month from Scott, but I have no issue with this. My own nature is a fairly cautious one and I'd much prefer a tipster tip only when confident that the circumstances are right to do so, and not simply to meet some spurious expectation that he be tipping more days than not. One tweak I might well make though, is to reduce the size of the bank. I currently devote 25 points to it and I'm not convinced I need that many. I know there is a whole different debate about whether or not a high turnover is preferable to a more selective approach, and a large part of me thinks that in many ways it is, but that's not to say that there isn't a very valuable place in any portfolio for a highly selective service such as The Sportsman/The Sportsman Racing.

Winning Racing Tips: Staked 9.4pts, -2.976pts, roi -31.65%
(Staked: 17pts, +6.658pts, roi 39.16%, ROC 22.19%)

Despite the figures for February, it's been a very strong beginning to 2013 for WRT, following on from an excellent 2012. Had the winning double that was landed on Sunday been three days earlier, February would have been a profitable month for the service, which may be an almost worthless fact in itself, but does kind of highlight the ridiculousness of judging betting performance on a monthly basis.

4PA: Staked 14.5pts, -5.172pts, roi -35.67%
(Staked: 31pts, -17.122pts, roi -55.23%, ROC -21.4%)

I think it's more a case of looking forward with this service as opposed to getting knickers in a twist about these last couple of months. With Cheltenham firmly in our sights, Aintree following not long after and then the Guineas meeting, there's a lot of action ahead at meetings that could very easily see the service excel. Fingers crossed for a profitable Cheltenham.

As for yesterday's betting...

Tuesday 5th February
Not that there was much of it. Just the one bet, Summer Of Football coming up with a "half" winner (Watford -0.75 vs Sheff Wednesday at 1.9).

Summer Of Football: Staked 1pt, +0.45pts.

Finally, a thank you to the Secret Betting Club for providing some interesting and stimulating bedtime reading for tonight by releasing it's Cheltenham Festival Special. Honestly, I'm like a dog with two dic kid at Christmas in these last few days prior to the big meeting. Bring it on!

And finally, finally...and at risk of this evening's post sounding like a stick-Northern-Monkey-on-a-pedastal piece - I much appreciated Wayne's emailing to his subscribers details on Cheltenham related offers that certain bookmakers are providing from tomorrow. Perhaps I should be more vigilant to these things myself, but I'm not. So this sort of stuff is, like I say, appreciated.

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