Monday, 25 March 2013

What's happened to Spring, then?

Boxing Day 1996 - Sheffield Wednesday vs Arsenal. 0-0.
December 1998 - Derby County vs Arsenal. 0-0.
March 23rd 2013 - Stockport County vs Newport County. 1-0.

These are three matches that I've been to which will stay with me forever, indelibly etched into the deepest recesses of my brain not by prolific goalscoring feats, as you can see, nor by tumultuos end to end excitement and thrills and spills galore. No. Rather they go down as being the three occasions in my life when the cold has been almost painful in it's ability to bite hard and deep regardless of the numerous levels of clothing, hats, gloves and scarves adorned by way of protection. This sort of cold laughs in the face of our attempts to thwart it by wrapping up, and on Saturday it was finding such efforts at defying it hilarious. It was bloody freezing!

I have mentioned previously that back in November, Northern Monkey briefly experimented with a systematic approach to picking selections on the all weather. This came after some generally underwhelming aw results in previous seasons and was Wayne's initial way of finding some improvement. However it quickly became clear that Wayne didn't enjoy this approach to winner finding, and instead reverted to a more familiar modus operandi, albeit one that utilised some modified selection criteria, since when the results have been outstanding. Since the change in strategy in mid-November, there have been 83 all weather bets, a win strike rate of 27% and a profit of over 40 points at an ROI of 42%!

Wayne sent an email to subscribers on Saturday that outlined his plan to introduce the new methodologies to the way he finds bets on the turf this season. He feels more confident now with his selection criteria than he has ever done, and confidence has got to be half the battle for a tipster, I'd have thought. It will be interesting to see how things pan out. I hope that this subtle move helps Wayne at least maintain the edge he has established over the bookmakers over the last few years, and perhaps will even increase it.

An update on Wilson Bet, the bookmaker I wrote about last week. First of all, I've had a report that they don't grant BOG on the place part of an each way double bet, another that states they were fairly quick to limit stakes, and although I opened an account over the weekend, I've yet to actually use it because I've not yet found a race in which they have been offering the best odds. I've found horses that were 4/1 in two or three places, 7/2 at Wilson Bet, 7/2 elsewhere but only 100/30 at Wilson Bet, and so on. They're not going to be the answer to our prayers, are they? Still, even if they can be used only for the odd bet or two, it will be one or two fewer to place with those bookies that carry the burden of our horse racing betting, and that can only be a good thing.

I was interested to read in Skeeve's Mail, the latest issue of which was sent over the weekend, that a Skeeve subscriber had experienced 188bet imposing a limit to his stakes. I've noticed a couple of times recently that they have done this to me, and not just on Skeeve's picks. What happens is that the stake is reduced at the price offered on screen, and then you're offered a lower price for the remaining stake. I thought it might just be a one off, but an identical experience described by Skeeve's subscriber suggests rather strongly that in fact, 188bet are now beginnning to limit their customers. Can anything else happen to push folk further and further towards Pinnacle and SBO?

Friday 22nd March
A smallish loss on the day with only two services in action.

Northern Monkey gave two bets, one of which placed and the other lost. Sportyy provided four tips, one of which was a winner (Fognini to bt Llodra at 2.16). There was a fifth bet that lost but the price had well gone by the time I could get to place the bet so I left it. Glad I did, now.

Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, -1.18pts.

Sportyy: Staked 5.5pts, -1.18pts.

Saturday 23rd March
A very small profit on what, because of the weather and international football fixture list (yawn), was the quietest Saturday betting-wise I've had for a long, long time.

It was a decent day for Skeeve despite his selections being adversely affected by postponements. The Asians service had two bets, one of which ran out a comfortable winner (Hyde (+0.5) vs Hereford at 1.93). One leg of each Doubles bet was cancelled thus making each wager a single bet and fortunately each leg won (Kidderminster to bt Southport at 1.83) and (Hyde to bt Hereford at 3.6). The non-league expert was unfortunate not to hit on a bumper pay out, being denied by a solitary late goal preventing the draw outcome backed from providing a winner.

Elsewhere, the one The Football Analyst 7/22 bet was a loser, and Sportyy had a bit of a shocker (0/4).

There were no horse racing bets.

The Football Analyst 7/22: Staked 0.5pts, -0.5pts.
Skeeve (Asians) Staked 6pts, +1.72pts.
Skeeve (Doubles): Staked 5pts, +5.92pts.
Sportyy: Staked 4pts, -4pts.

Sunday 24th March
A decent enough profit bagged but it was very much a "nearly" day on the horses, with both Northern Monkey bets going close at odds of 6/1 and 10/1.

There was a winner for The Sportsman Racing (Noverre To Go - Lingfield - 4/6) and from On The Nose (Shuil Royale - Wincanton - 7/2). The Winning Racing Tips horse finished third for a very slight loss.

On The Nose: Staked 1.5pts, +0.75pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 2pts, +0.6pts.
The Sportsman Racing: Staked 0.5pts, +0.333pts.
Winning Racing Tips: Staked 0.8pts, -0.04pts.

Just checked the Met Office website. No sign of any heatwave this week. :(

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